USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/
Tree in the Forest#4715602/01/01; 20:15:42


SEERCONTEST REWARDS#4715702/01/01; 20:19:01

Just a note to say that I am humbled by the note that is taken about me being a first poster and also a runner up contest winner. Yes, I had to bring my cart in order to cary away the loot, but fortunately (or not) there was plenty of room. Remember, I guarded "a paltry sum at best" in the poem.

Regards to all. I have been a reader here for a long time. And to allay any questions, even though I am not a knight, the title "sir" does display my gender.

Randy (@ The Tower)It's not ALL news. Psssssst...hey guys, are you ready for Valentine's Day?#4715802/01/01; 20:42:32

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

Call Marie tomorrow to save your bacon from the fire.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, your msg. #47103, quite the myopic history lesson#4715902/01/01; 20:45:56

So much of your post I find in error and frankly offensive. Your most outrageous statement was:"It was gold which won the last war....". WRONG! It was the blood and sacrifice of soldiers, sailors, airmen and those who supplyed the materiel for them to wage the fight....they won the war. The Third Reich was defeated with an amazing amount of gold on hand. The Russians drove the Nazis back to Berlin, without gold. Now, one thousand US veterans of WWII die each day. They did not fight for gold. They fought for freedom. They honored their governments call for service. Their sacrifice as well as that of their Canadian comrades is a far different sacrifice. It is self serving to claim that the Americas were saved from the Axis by the UK remaining. The US and Canadian fighter fought when their home was not threatened. Sorry, U-boats and 200 mile range rockets just could not defeat the USA.

You are also wrong about the German progress toward the atomic bomb. They chose the wrong approach (heavy water) and the US saturation bombing had denied them of sufficient uranium.

You also seem to forget "Lend Lease", the Marshall Plan, and numerous loans to Allies which were forgiven by the US. The only non deadbeat was Finland. (To this day I as an American taxpayer have to scratch my head at the wisdom of funding NATO!)

Do not misconstrue any of what I write as disparaging the efforts of the European allies in the victory over the Axis. Their homes and families were under direct attack. They had little choice. The same was not the case for those fighters from this side of the Atlantic.

Instead of throwing mud at the stars and stripes, you should be grateful for the people and nation it represents.

Galearistree in a forest#4716002/01/01; 20:51:25

Welcome! That is a very welcome post, sir. I hope you can provide this information on a regular basis.

Best regards,
G

GalearisCorrection: tree in the forest#4716102/01/01; 20:55:17

Apologies, I did see a tree for the forest.

(smile)

G.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeSancho, US funding of science?#4716202/01/01; 20:58:44

The zero gravity ball point pen is a good one. The one recent project that I find particularly amusing is the study of "Contribution of Flatulence in Cows on Global Warming". Only in the USA. (Bite your tongue Pandagold!)
justamereBearGalearis 47147 Steve H 47144 Black Blade#4716302/01/01; 22:01:05

Galearis
I am Starting a new business, for the sheeple who are doing the lemming thing. Cordless Bungee Jumping, Pay me now, no credit.

Steve H
s'Truth. But then a certain somebody has been posting on this forum, with a sense of total awe, the numbers that the PTB has been adding to the money supply. Panic? Panic is not the word.

Black Blade
The thanks really are in the other direction. You are just a bit smarter than you believe, thats all.
That finite amount of oil question was all the rage in 1972. As is usually the case, some people got all worked up then, for say maybe 20 minutes, and then decided that they would rather party hearty. That stuck with me. The supply of petroleum is large, but finite.

The crunch, for me, came in the late 80's, or more probably the early 90's.
I wrote my mother a letter in late 92, which mentions it.
Some dingbat bureaucrat was spouting off, how proud they were that energy consumption was increasing, How this indicated how superior we were, etc. etc. Advocating more usage, not less. (thank God for SUV's)
My great respect for spouting bureaucrats raised its ugly head, and, lo, I had an epiphany. By the time a bureaucrat starts to sing huzzanas, the end is near.

As with you, the more I looked, the more the hair raised on the back of my neck.

Mankind has squandered its heritage in less than 100 years. Now we freeze in the dark. Kalifornians just have more of this grasshopper gene than most.

Best regards
j'Bear

ETUSAGOLD#4716402/01/01; 22:46:04

Hey MK - concerning the CFR piece. Interestingly, they say they are going to inflate, no question. The CFR is basically the policy portion of our government. If that is how "they" see it, you can bet that is what they are going to do. Politically I don't see as they have much choice.

I hope you got to read Anne Williamson's piece about the trillions missing from the agencies. I guess we'll know if the situation is legit if they go after the missing dough, eh? If not, they might find it difficult finding taxpayers willing to fund this nonsense.

elevator guy@Black Blade (2/1/2001; 1:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47070)#4716502/01/01; 23:20:15

Howdy, Sir Black Blade.

I have to comment on that report about Y2K problems.

I remember talk of elevators stopping, cars not starting, planes falling from the sky, a total meltdown of our industrial infrastructure from which we would never recover, a new world leader called the beast, who would gain power by rebuilding after the chaos, and the second coming of our Lord Jesus Christ.

OK, see, none of the above has happened.

I work extensively in the elevator field, and I can tell you that NO software remediation was done by any company that I know. And its a small trade, so word travels fast, but there have been no reports of embedded chip failure, (we do have a few embedded chips here and there, as well as processor based, software driven systems) and there have been no elevator failures that are in any way attributable to Y2K. It just DIDN"T HAPPEN!

CHINA, using old stolen software and computers, Russia, the Third World in general, all were supposed to be very vulnerble to Y2K. They were last on the list of conciousness about Y2K, and did the least, if anything, to prepare. Yet there were no major problems worth reporting.

Haven't seen any planes falling from the sky.

Haven't lost water, power, or gas.

Everything continues as it has before Y2K, and has been for well over a year.

If there are any embedded chip failures, or software failures, they must not be very widespread, or critical, because there have been no major shake ups in the status quo.

How about we put the burden of proof on those who still spread this stuff around? Lets see some documented cases of Y2K failures. I bet there is barely a handful.

Have you ever seen that little joke, where you pretend that there is a little man in your hand, and you make your audience hold his coat, while he does backflips? Just cause you cant see him, doesn't prove that he is not real.

Well, in the smae way, Y2K lives on among adherents, and you cant prove its not real. If someone wants to beleive it, let 'em.

JourneymanGalloping totalitarianism#4716602/01/01; 23:48:02

The Tampa, Fla. Police department used automatic facial recognition
software to scan all the attendees at the Super Bowl in an attempt to ID any criminals
who might be attending. They claim to have IDd three minor criminals. Civil
libertarians claimed this was unconstitutional because there was no probable cause.
The Tampa PD said it was O.K. because they were only doing a test run. -Pittsburgh
Channel 11 11:00 O'clock News, Feb. 1, 2001.

Regards, j.

SHIFTYJESUS IS WATCHING YOU #4716702/01/01; 23:55:00

off topic

The burglar was creeping noiselessly through the darkened home, filling his bag with various valuables. As he reached his hand out to a box of jewelry, he heard a voice say, "Jesus is watching you."
Shaken, the burglar stopped. For a full minute he didn't dare breathe. Finally, he switched on his flashlight and carefully played it around the room, but saw nothing. Convinced that it must have been his imagination, he turned off the flashlight and continued in his quest for another man's wealth. He was busily unhooking a stereo set when he again heard, "Jesus is watching you." This time he nearly jumped out of his skin, he was so freaked out. Beads of sweat popped out on his face, and as he switched the light on again, the beam shook violently from his terror. He looked about the room, and noticed a birdcage in the corner. Upon closer inspection, he discovered a parrot in the cage. "Are you the one that spoke to me just now?" asked the burglar. "Yes, I am," said the parrot. "Why did you say 'Jesus is watching you?'" asked the man. "Because I felt like you needed to be warned," replied the parrot. By this time, the man was over his fright and was more than a little irritated at this smart-mouthed parrot that had tried to scare the living daylights out of him.
"What's your name?" asked the burglar. "Moses," the parrot said. "Hah," the man said, guffawing. "What kind of people would name their parrot Moses?"
"The same kind of people that would name their Rottweiler, Jesus."

Gandalf the WhiteQ for Jman! and the look at the CryBALL !!#4716802/01/01; 23:57:45

ONLY Three ? Not very good was it !
and now the real news --- gray swearling clouds with flashes of energy in the CryBall tonight say the Hobbits -- Friday will be an interesting day !
<;-)

Gandalf the WhiteSpecial NOTE !#4716902/02/01; 00:01:42

I hope EVERYONE noticed the Type of Clouds in the CryBall!
BIG<;-)

Black BladeRE: elevator guy#4717002/02/01; 00:02:21

Hi there elevator guy,

Yeah I know what you mean. I thought that some predictions were overblown on Y2K. Like I said though, I have had a few inconveniences with some software glitches. I keep getting warnings of "illegal date" for example. I just force them in by manual entry. I have heard of some problems in the "oil patch" where there were some minor shutdowns, and even an explosion or two. Y2K related? who knows. Seems we survived though. I still say that Y2K-like preparations are still prudent no matter what. The current energy crisis will spread, and lay-offs are increasing as this recession gathers steam. Those who took Y2K precautions to heart just may have been early is all, and they got their supplies cheaper to boot. I have to admit, even though I was somewhat skeptical of the more dire Y2K scenarios proposed by many, I did think that preparation was still a good idea. If something serious did occur, I would have hated to be out in the cold and looked like a fool because I knew that there was a "potential" problem of extreme severity and yet did nothing. Preparation and safety of self and family always come first, anything less is simply irresponsible.

Now, I have to go read yesterday's posts, Cheers.

- Black Blade

Peter AsherRandy (@ The Tower) (01/31/01; 17:05:38MT msg#: 47046)#4717102/02/01; 00:04:18

Randy, re your >>> for best clarity among people with differing understandings
of inflation and deflation, discussions should specify whether the user is referring to money supply (the preferable use) or to prices, <<<

I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."

Defining inflation in the (preferred by who?) context of the money supply comes from a time when economies were more centralized to their specific nation. Even though the dictionary gives equal weight to either use, it still perpetuates the now archaic cause and effect equation. Global trade is the giant sponge that absorbs Big Float, easily relieving any price pressure on the home economy. If inflating the money supply ‘caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! I suspect that there is a vast quantity of economic activity that does not show up in the record keeping but nevertheless ‘uses' its proportion of the money supply to carry on.

Re- >>>As I have said many times before, the view from The Tower is one of a deflation in dollars in the global scale as the use is replaced by euros and alternatives. However, as the dollar falls out of favor in international use, we see ample ingredients for domestic (within America's borders) hyperinflation of supply and prices as the Fed moves to liquidate the grinding banking sector from within, or even as the deflating global supply is sent packing...all into its original "tiny" home.<<<

What is there in "Feeding Leviathan" that you see as not occurring?. Just HOW do these dollars come home to roost? And, what and from where are forthcoming these "ample ingredients for domestic hyperinflation? Be specific. These discussions are too often endless non sequiturs or a segue over to a personal hobby horse as someone, to disagree, stresses a DIFFERENT point or item rather then debate the specifics of that which they are disagreeing with.

As to specifics, I see local gasoline today @ $1.45.9 down 18% from recent highs and I read Monday that Sabena and Swissair slashed ‘over the pond' fares on 11 routes. Anecdotal, of course, but so are the tales of what costs more at the moment. It is the summation of all prices, properly weighted by dollar market share that would give us the true state of the ‘flation situation. This is the main thrust in " Leviathan." That at best, a balance of price movement will occur as lower debt service costs offset the purchasing power lost. We are backing down from an artificial affluence that robbed tomorrow to pay for today. If this economy is very much dependent on the purchasing power of the holders of debt instruments, then it is TOAST!

Finally, Re- >>> You see, the euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<

What are the mechanics that would cause this?. Your North star is my Southern Cross (Headed South). To date, the Euro exchange rate is 20% below the rate at inception. I have, from the start, declared the Euro a weak cousin to the dollar. I indicated that the strength of the Mark and SF would be diluted by the Lire and Peso and then later stressed the further weakening that will occur as former Soviet satellite nations, complete with massive environmental liabilities, are enfolded into the Union. Imagine how the dollar would be valued if we added the economy of Mexico into it's domestic quantum.

Absent delineation of mechanical cause and effect, the statements bandied about, such as "Dollars coming home to roost" and (Price) "Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few Goods" are simply platitudes!

Peter AsherGary North's Reality Check, #57#471722/2/2001; 0:21:23

http://www.prudentbear.com/guest2.htm

THE ASSET BUBBLE AND THE LOOMING BUSH RECESSION
>
> Alan Greenspan's announcement of a half a percentage
> point cut in the federal funds rate on January 3 sent a
> signal to the markets: the slowing of U.S. economy is
> beginning to worry FED policy-makers.
>
> This is the background to an article that you need to
> read. It is written by Dr. Kurt Richebacher, a retired
> German banker and "Austrian school" economist. He has been
> warning for months about a looming credit crisis. With
> Greenspan's announcement, it becomes clear that the Board
> of Governors of the Federal Reserve System have begun to
> take steps to head off this crisis. Dr. Richebacher's
> article appears here:
>
> Earlier this month, Montgomery Ward declared
> bankruptcy. The company will lay of 37,000 employees.
> Over the last weekend, Sears announced a decision to close
> 89 stores. Retail sales for Christmas were below
> expectations. Department store sales were down 0.6% from
> November. Total sales in the economy were up a meager
> 0.1%.
>
> With this as background, Richebacher's January 12
> essay takes on added significance. "The most recent data
> are depicting an economy that is slowing so dramatically
> that we are beginning to wonder whether the U.S. economy's
> hard landing has not already arrived, implying zero or less
> than zero economic growth in the fourth quarter."
>
> Certain of his observations I regard as crucial. He
> begins with a list of the problems:
>
> The steep slide of the high tech stocks, the
> broad retreat of the Old Economy stocks,
> multiplying bank announcements of sharp increases
> in bad loans, the virtual shut-down of high-yield
> lending, record-high indebtedness of firms and
> consumers, an unsustainable negative personal
> saving rate, an unsustainable, monstrous
> current-account deficit and countless profit
> warnings -- all these bigger and bigger economic
> and financial negatives, relentlessly eroding the
> U.S. economy's stability and strength, are flatly
> ignored by Wall Street's Panglossian economists.
>
> Dr. Pangloss was the always optimistic character in
> Voltaire's novel, CANDIDE. He serves as a model for the
> vast majority of the "buy and hold" crowd on Wall Street.
> They told people to buy and hold dot.com stocks all through
> the collapse, which has wiped out three-quarters of the
> capital value of this industry since March 10.
>
> Richebacher points out that today's rate of price
> inflation in the United States is 3.5%. It has been
> averaging 3% since 1995. This calls into question the
> effects of the economic growth rate of 5% that the nation
> enjoyed, and which has now disappeared. The U.S. is
> experiencing the highest rate of price inflation of the
> major industrial nations.
>
> The seemingly low inflation rate is a bad sign.
> "Ironically, it is a historic fact that the worst
> recessions and even depressions in history have happened in
> the wake of prolonged periods of low inflation."
>
> America had zero inflation during the 1920s, and
> Japan's CPI during the bubble years of 1988-89
> kept below 1%. In light of these experiences, it
> is a badly flawed argument that the low inflation
> rate in the United States is proof of the absence
> of an asset bubble.
>
> Today, the increase in the value of stocks has led to
> ever-more borrowing by corporations and consumers. The
> increased value of the collateral has persuaded banks to
> lend more money. This is a classic sign of a bubble
> economy, he says.
>
> Since 1994, nominal (not inflation rate-adjusted) GDP
> is up $2.7 trillion. But corporate and consumer debt is up
> 4.75 trillion. Indebtedness of the financial sector is up
> $4.1 trillion. Overall credit creation is $8.9 trillion.
> With respect to economic growth, the economy is no longer
> getting much "bang for the buck" from its credit system.
>
> In sum, total GDP growth of $2,720 billion
> compared during this period with overall credit
> creation of $8,900 billion. This is not just
> another Bubble Economy. It's by far the worst of
> its kind in history. To accommodate such a credit
> explosion for such a long time, it needs one of
> two things on the part of the central bank:
> absolute recklessness or absolute ignorance in
> matters of credit and money.
>
> The rate of personal savings has collapsed. From
> 1992, at the tail end of the Bush recession, the rate was
> 8.7%. This is normal at the end of a recession. It slid
> to 4.1% by 1998. Today, it's slightly negative. So,
> consumers started buying. "Manifestly, this sudden
> stampede of the American consumer out of current saving has
> been the U.S. economy's chief propellant over the last two
> years. In this respect, it definitely is a new paradigm
> economy. This has no parallel in history."
>
> But Christmas sales point to an end of the consumer
> boom. This decline had begun in the third quarter of 2000.
>
> If the sudden, rapid slowdown both of consumer
> and corporate spending appears awesome, even more
> awesome is the speed with which the American
> financial system has shifted from unfettered
> credit excess to a nascent credit crunch, even
> though excess reserves of the banking system are
> at a higher-than-usual level. Evidence of a
> developing credit crunch is all of a sudden
> everywhere.
>
> What's behind the shift? Given the ample supply
> of bank reserves, it's obviously not Fed action
> that has caused this dramatic change in the
> financial climate. Its apparent main cause must
> essentially be a fundamental reassessment of risk
> throughout the economy, triggered by escalating,
> alarming news of bond defaults and bad bank
> loans. On Oct. 16, Bank of America reported a
> sharp decline in third-quarter income as
> non-performing loans had jumped nearly 50%. The
> next day, Chicago's Bank One reported a 37% drop
> in earnings in large part for the same reason.
> Losses from large syndicated loans by U.S. banks
> so far have more than tripled this year to about
> $5 billion. That's higher than in the last
> recession. New bank lending has slowed to a
> crawl.
>
> Just as bad, if not a lot worse, is the situation
> in the other lending channel of the financial
> system: the capital markets. The junk-bond market
> has collapsed, with yields at their highest level
> in a decade. Actually, a growing number of
> investment-grade bonds are trading as if they are
> junk. As stock prices drop, dealers and inventors
> quickly mark down the value of related bonds as
> well.
>
> We are seeing an unwinding of the credit-funded
> American consumer buying boom, as well as an increase in
> the risks for banks. This is happening simultaneously.
> Richebacher concludes:
>
> For the time being, it looks like a slow-motion
> credit crunch, but wait until the markets awaken
> to the probability of a hard landing. While
> policymakers and investors yearn for a cooling
> economy to prevent rising inflation and fend off
> future Fed rate hikes, they are unprepared for
> the havoc that a sharply slowing economy will
> play with corporate earnings -- and with
> America's extremely vulnerable financial system.
>
>
> BUSH'S PROBLEM
>
> It is normal for a newly elected President to suffer a
> recession early in his first term. For new Republican
> presidents, this has been true since 1929: Hoover,
> Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Bush all suffered
> first-term early recessions. Bush's hit a bit late -- mid-
> 1990 -- and this cost him the 1992 election.
>
> George W. Bush is walking into a meat grinder that has
> been fueled by Federal Reserve credit since the LTCM scare
> in September 1998. The FED tried to slow things down in
> 20900, but the result was a series of interest rate hikes
> and the return of the inverted yield curve last july -- the
> best indicator of recession -- where 90-day T-bill rates
> exceed 30-year T-note rates. This condition prevailed
> until early this month, when the FED's reversal and pump-
> priming, which began in early December, finally drove down
> short-term rates.
>
> Bush has the votes to push through a tax cut if he
> gets full support from Republican legislators. If the
> Senate splits 50-50, Cheney will vote for it. We shall see
> how committed Bush is to his program. If he introduces
> legislation immediately, I think he can get his way. If he
> falters, which I don't expect, he will be perceived as
> weakening in the face of liberal media opposition, which
> wants him to be conciliatory, i.e., retain the Clinton
> agenda.
>
> I think his cabinet appointments will get through the
> Senate Democrats' opposition. Bush has the votes if he can
> hold his troops in line. The media are making a big deal
> out of some loud whining by liberal groups that voted 90%
> for Gore -- groups that are not representative of centrist
> Democrats. Bush can afford to ignore these groups. I
> doubt that 50 Democrats will stand with them in opposition
> of Ashcroft, who was a member of the Senate until two weeks
> ago. The Senate's club really is a club. Ashcroft was
> part of it.
>
> When his nomination sails through, Bush will be in a
> position to push his tax cut package. He will be perceived
> as having the votes. Unless Congressional Republicans
> defect in the midst of what appears to be victory, Bush
> will be able to get his tax cuts. He will need them. The
> economy is cooling too fast.
>
> Even so, the cuts are really marginal. They will not
> be enough to offset the basic economics of the asset
> bubble. The FED will be perceived, correctly, as the
> source of any great reversal. We are at the tail end of
> the longest economic boom in U.S. history. Asset prices
> are at historically high levels.
>
> The Nasdaq went down with the dot-coms. Now the
> pressure will be on earnings and profits of the less
> speculative sectors. Today, both profits and earnings are
> headed lower. Bush can't do anything about this.
> Greenspan can, but even he is limited. He does not want
> price inflation to reappear at the end of his career.
>
>
> CONCLUSION
>
> Get out of personal debt. Start cutting back on
> consumption expenditures. Beat the crowd.
>
> Start looking for ways to increase your value to your
> employer. Unemployment will raise its ugly head in 2001.
>
> If you own a business, secure your bank credit lines
> now, in writing. Do not get caught short by your bank's
> refusal to roll over your line of credit.
>

skiUranium Spot Price Up#471732/2/2001; 0:52:48

www.nynco.com/fuel_prices.html

I watch the price movement of many different commodities and NOTHING moves like the price of uranium. The pattern for most commodities resembles the flight of a bumble-bee ... up, down, up & up, down & down .... from one day to the next. On the other hand the spot price of uranium moves like a supertanker on the ocean. It goes ONLY in one direction for a long period of time and then in the other for a long period of time.

I will demonstrate by giving a scattering of prices quoted by UXC, a urnaium dealer.
5-15-00 $8.45
7-3-00 $8.15
8-7-00 $8.05
9-4-00 $7.65
10-2-00 $7.45
11-13-00 $7.10
12-11-00 $7.10
1-1-01 $7.10
1-29-01 $7.25

Notice the price progression with special attention to the LAST ENTRY. The web address that I gave above displays the uranium price of four different sales organizations ... UXC, NUKEM, NUC FUEL, & TRADE TEC
Three of the four have displayed a price pattern like the example above. I know because I keep a log of all the posted prices.

The Most Likely Conclusion: The long awaited up-move in uranium prices is at hand. This seems to be confirmed by the price action of the world's largest uranium producer ..Cameco (CCJ NYSE, or CCO Toronto). Yes ... I own some and have had a happy day.

Old YellerA suggestion to Barrick for enhancing shareholder value#471742/2/2001; 0:53:33

I have to admit,I am really starting to enjoy Leonard Kaplan's commentary at Prospector Asset Management,this tongue in cheek suggestion to our good buddy,Barrick Gold is a case in point.

"I must admit that I do have a very perverse sense of humor,but I must congratulate Barrick on their quarterly earnings.The largest North American gold producer reported a 4th quarter profit of 104 million dollars and get this;$95 million was the profit on their hedge book.These guys are good!The rhetorical question is whether they are a gold producer or a hedge fund.If they sold their underlying assets'sold their gold mines,fired the management,(but of course,kept the traders)they would sharply reduce expenses.Perhaps the shareholders would condone such activities,as greater profitability would ensue.After all, actually mining the stuff is such a dirty business."

Link from thebulliondesk.com

I can clearly remember when Barrick made their huge discovery at Goldstrike in Nevada which transformed them from an also-ran to a major producer.Boy,did these guys get lucky or what?Little did I know that they would take such an unbelievably rich discovery and weave this "hedging strategy" to the absolute detriment of the investors who provided the funds for their success.

Nasty bit of work,then,isn't it.

Black BladeCalif. Utility Pacific G&E Defaults#471752/2/2001; 1:00:26

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010201/c6.html

By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cash-strapped California utility Pacific Gas & Electric Co. said on Thursday it plans to pay its suppliers only about 15 percent of what it owes them, and that it and its parent, PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), have defaulted on $726 million of short-term debt. California, the nation's most populous state, has suffered from blackouts in the last two weeks. Pacific G&E and No. 2 utility Southern California Edison, a unit of Rosemead, Calif.-based Edison International (NYSE:EIX), cannot pass onto consumers their soaring wholesale power costs because of a rate freeze and the state's 1996 deregulation law. The utilities owe about $12 billion. Pacific G&E, California's biggest utility, and its San Francisco-based parent, which together have less than $1.2 billion of cash left, made their disclosures in mirror filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The defaults on the short-term debt, or commercial paper, were expected. The filings came after California's Assembly on Thursday rejected emergency legislation to fund state-backed power purchases because some legislators thought it would trigger rate hikes. California's Senate had earlier approved the measure. Another Assembly vote is expected Thursday. Pacific G&E said its ``intent is to pay its ongoing costs of doing business'' until the power crisis is resolved. PG&E, meanwhile, said it is ``examining'' a restructuring of its bank loans and commercial paper, and that it may take six months for holders of defaulted debt to get back their principal. PG&E shares traded Thursday afternoon on the New York Stock Exchange at $13.75, down 50 cents, or 3.5 percent. Their 52-week high is $31.81. Edison International shares traded on the Big Board at $13.02, down 32 cents, or 2.4 percent. Their 52-week high is $30. Pacific G&E serves about 13 million Californians. SoCal Edison serves about 11 million.

PARTIAL PAYMENTS

Pacific G&E said it plans to will pay on a pro-rata basis just $161 million, or 15.4 percent, of the $1.048 billion it owes to various power generators, the California Power Exchange (CalPX), a clearinghouse for electricity buyers and sellers, and the California Independent System Operator (ISO), which operates most of the state's power grid.
It said it owes the generators $437 million, and CalPX and the ISO $611 million. It had earlier said it expected to owe CalPX and the ISO $583 million. It said it will make partial payments ``based on the electric commodity portion of revenues collected through frozen rates. Peter Darbee, PG&E's chief financial officer, told investors in a Thursday conference call his company should be able to raise ``substantial amounts'' of cash to pay off holders of defaulted short-term debt three to six months after the state enacts a rescue plan. Pacific G&E said its cash reserves total $828 million, while PG&E said its reserves total $347 million.

DEFAULTS

Pacific G&E said it has defaulted on $437 million of commercial paper through Jan. 31, and expects to default on $294 million due February 28 and $142 million due March 31 unless its situation improves. PG&E, meanwhile, has defaulted on $289 million of commercial paper, and expects to default on $164 million more by February 28 and $48 million by March 31. Peter Darbee, PG&E's chief financial officer, told investors in a Thursday conference call his company may raise ``substantial amounts'' of cash to pay holders of defaulted commercial paper three to six months after the state adopts a rescue plan The utility, though, said it plans to keep making regular interest payments on $8.13 billion of other debt, including $938 million of bank debt, $1.24 billion of floating-rate notes, $287 million of medium-term notes, $3.37 billion of mortgage bonds, $1.61 billion of pollution control bonds and $680 million of senior notes. Pacific G&E also said its banks cut off two credit lines totaling $1.85 billion, following its downgrade by top credit rating agencies to junk status from investment-grade. PG&E said its banks have terminated two credit lines totaling $936 million.


Black Blade: PG&E have been in default on corporate paper for over 2 weeks now. They are bankrupt. Only the filing has yet to be done. The Kalifornia legislature approve a $10 billion bond package to bail out the utes. This also includes a $500 million package to immediately purchase more "juice" from neighboring states. They have burned through over $590 million of tax payer money in January alone. The use of electricity will increase toward summer in the land of "Fruits and Nuts." The only question left is how much will the "burn rate" increase. They will also have to service this new debt. I saw a special segment on CNBC about other states at risk of an energy crisis. The one analysts said Georgia was at the top of the list. I'm not so sure, however, the top dog from one the states utes disputed her claims and was very adamant about it. He reminded me of Kalifornia's former top ute regulator who made the same claims about how Kalifornia would never have those kinds of problems and had over 20% excess capacity, etc. I think his name was Hoenecker(?) maybe. He resigned not long ago. Hmmm…

skiCorrected Uranium Price Link #471762/2/2001; 1:00:56

http:www.nynco.com/fuel_prics.html

Sorry, I didn't use enough of the required web address the first time.
HoratioFed Reserve#471772/2/2001; 1:09:02

They have tricked us.
They convince americans fighting inflation is a good thing to do.They try to convince us that only by interfearing in the market place can "they" save us.
They create the distortions in the market place.Is it not true had they not "fought inflation"that real assets would have been able to compete for investors,would not gold and silver and all commodities have been higher and the stock market bubble have been avoided because some of that money would be spread around to include real assets instead of being concentrated in the stock market?.When all prices rise together and money supply rises equally ,where is the inflation?.They create distortations and pretend to save us from the very problems they create.These greedy bastards bankers and thier fiat money .When all assets compete on a equal basis there will never be inflation and you will never need them to "save you",what fools americans are.They, favor thier own assets "fiat money" at the expense of real assets.They prevent your wages from going up by importing goods made by cheap labor ,they then export the jobs to keep the pressure on.Only if you work for the gumment do you keep up,if you are in the private sector you must "compete".Where is thier competitican for wages.Where is thier foreign competator.They are protected by thier COLAS.The Gumment and the bankers are in this together. They have created a great distortion, and when it collapses as it must they will forclose on "REAL ASSETS" and reap thier ill gotten harvest and the gumment will ask for "emergency powers" to rule and we give up everything the founding fathers gave us without firing a shot....

PerplexedSLaTT - RIGHT ON !#471782/2/2001; 1:11:05

Thank you my friend. World War 2 ended on my eleventh birthday, thus I was old enough to be well aware of one cousin killed as a crew member of a bomber in the raid on Schwienfort, a raid that resulted in a 40% loss of planes and crew, and another in a submarine at about the same time.

I have very high regards for English resolve, tenacity and fearlessness in battle, the fact that Hitler didn't, cost the Germans dearly. The fact that he gained his opinion of the United States from the book "The Grapes of Rath" cost them even more.

Hitler had no concept of a nation of people willing to fight and die, not for conquest and gain, but contrarily, at a cost of wealth and lives to preserve and protect the freedom of others.

This zeal in the individual American is not the result of birth or heritage, it is a transmitted contagion of freedom, and infects every refugee, from the first moment his foot touches our shores.

Panda we are experiencing the death throas of a dying economic system which in my opinion will take government, as we know it, along for the ride.( And this is not limited to USA)

You are not alone in your assessment of world events. There are few partipants in the forum, despite what you may think, that are asleep at the wheel.

You appear to think that all this government must do is issue an order, and most of us will just load our arms and ammunition into the bed of our pickup truck, and our gold in the cab, drive to city hall and give them the keys. WRONG!!

While the zeal to fight for King and Country has resulted in cemetaries around the world being populated by the youth of the UK, the Zeal for Freedom has resulted in the same thing in the USA, and IT IS STILL ALIVE AND WELL.

It is my nightmare, as well as many others on this forum, that some NIT WIT Politician is going to forget this zeal, and some how arrive at the conclusion that the gun control propaganda with which we have been assailed, has worked.


Perplexed

PerplexedPeter Asher--Deflation#471792/2/2001; 1:25:35

Peter I copied chapter 1 on deflation, but I have been chasing my tail, maybe I will have time to study it before I get chapter 2.

I enjoyed your daughters letter very much, thanks for posting it, and congratulations on your version of the Odyssey, very well thought out.

Perplexed

Black Blade"The Mad Tea Party"#471802/2/2001; 1:32:32

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research/docview.asp?viewnews=true&newstype=1&viewdoc=true&dv=true&doc=124

New research from Simmons and Co. Intl. is available at the URL. "The Mad Tea Party" provides a not so rosy analysis of future oil supply vs. demand.
Black BladeU.S. Manufacturing in Recession; Economy Falters #471812/2/2001; 1:43:38

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010201/ts/economy_dc_1.html

By Ross Finley
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity withered for a sixth straight month in January, signaling one-fifth of the economy had slipped into recession and that overall growth may have stalled, a survey showed on Thursday. The report, delivered a day after the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) slashed rates by a half-point for the second time in less than a month, overshadowed earlier figures showing a rise in both personal spending and construction spending in December, and a jump in unemployment claims during the past week. The National Association of Purchasing Management (NAPM) said its January manufacturing index slid from 44.3 in December to 41.2 -- its lowest level since March 1991, at the tail end of the last recession. Economists had expected a 43.6 reading. ``This has confirmed the feeling that the manufacturing sector is in recession...(and) the impression the manufacturing sector is in free-fall,'' said Anthony Karydakis, senior financial economist at Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago. Manufacturers have been struggling to cope with high energy costs, weakening export sales and sluggish consumer demand for big-ticket items, as well as an overhang of inventories built up when the economy was booming in the first half of 2000. Financial markets, still digesting the Fed's half-point rate cut were little jostled by the news as further manufacturing weakness was widely expected. U.S. Treasury bonds extended an earlier rally, while major stock indices were mixed. The dollar was little changed against major currencies.

NAPM chair Norbert Ore said the January manufacturing index correlated to an overall economic contraction of 0.6 percent at an annualized pace, meaning that last month the broader economy failed to grow for the first time in 117 months, or nearly 10 years. In another ominous sign for America's industrial sector in the months ahead, the NAPM new orders index, a gauge of production to come, tumbled from 42.5 in December to 37.8 -- its lowest since January 1991. The NAPM production index, meanwhile, plunged to its lowest point since May 1982. ``Obviously the economy is in trouble -- the Fed has lowered rates dramatically -- but I wouldn't generalize from the state of the manufacturing sector that the overall economy is in the same dismal state,'' said Banc One's Karydakis.

December Spending Up

Consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent pace in December, on trend, but the climb was driven largely by costlier services as Americans paid more for electricity and natural gas, the Commerce Department said. Consumers cut back on purchases of expensive items like new cars backing a report earlier this week that said a fall consumer confidence to four-year lows had reined in Americans' appetite to buy expensive items. Reports from vehicle makers showed January auto sales dropped, although less severely than many analysts had expected. The falls were led by an 11.3 percent plunge in sales by No. 2 automaker Ford Motor Co. Spending on durable goods tumbled 1.9 percent -- the sharpest fall since a 2.5 percent drop in May 1999 -- after a 0.9 percent drop in November. Spending on nondurables like food was flat after a 0.1 percent drop the month before. Incomes, meanwhile, rose by 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent fall in November and a 0.2 percent slowing in October. Spending on U.S. construction projects rose unexpectedly in December, led by gains in single-family home and office construction as lower interest rates, even with the U.S. economy rapidly losing steam, have encouraged building. Construction spending rose 0.6 percent, handily beating analysts estimates for a 0.4 percent drop and after a 0.2 percent increase in November. For all of 2000, construction spending rose 5.7 percent compared with a 7.4 percent rise the year before. Separately, the Labor Department said the number of weekly claims for unemployment benefits increased to 346,000 last week from 314,000 a week earlier. While that suggested some easing in tight labor markets, the closely-watched four-week moving average of claims, considered a better barometer of labor market conditions, fell to 327,000 from the prior week's 335,500. On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to issue its report on January employment. Wall Street analysts predict the unemployment rate will rise to 4.1 percent from 4.0 percent.


Black Blade: No surprise to the minds of those here at the forum, however, Wall Street was in shock this morning. This mornings unemployment numbers may be interesting, though that number is expected to rise over the next few weeks with more and more lay-offs expected. Consumer confidence is at 10 year lows as well. These stats tend to be fairly accurate predictors of recession by themselves. We could be on the verge of "Interesting Times." Time to lock in PM positions, defensive stocks maybe, other hard assets, and pay off debt. The pundits are screaming at the tops of their lungs that "all is well", but few are listening.

HoratioJapan#471822/2/2001; 1:50:25

The Bankers took control of Japanese banks right after wwII
Rockefellers ,Rothchild,Chase ,Morgan et al.The bankers created a distortation in real estate there because thats an asset thats always in short supply therefore very easy to inflate.The only problem the bankers have is the Japanese are such great savers the Bankers have been unable to forclose on them!!Ain't that a hoot!!

Black BladeNatural Gas Bills To Be Even Higher - Kansas #471832/2/2001; 1:52:11

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kmbc/20010131/lo/303140_1.html

Officials Explain Rising Costs

If you live in Missouri, you haven't seen the worst of high gas bills. The next bill will be even higher, KMBC's Micheal Mahoney said. That news came from the first day of a state investigation into the natural gas problem. At the hearing, the head of Missouri Gas Energy explained why your next gas bill from them will be even higher. "What they were getting in their last bill was gas at $6.29. Their next bill will show the gas at $9.80," Steve Cattron of Missouri Gas Energy said. In other words, the 44 percent rate increase that was approved by the state earlier this month for natural gas hasn't shown up on the bill yet. At the hearing by Attorney General Jay Nixon to find out what is going on, several factors were mentioned: low natural gas prices didn't encourage much more new production; storage supplies drained as the economy roared last summer; and an unusually harsh November and December weather drove up use, which made the price leap. Look where the price of gas was a year ago: $2.34. By June, it broke through the $4 barrier for the first time ever. It didn't stop in December -- another all-time record. Then it approached $10 in January, before falling off for this coming month. Nixon asked what the best way to lower the bills next month. "There aren't many good options. Unless it keeps getting warmer, they could drop. That would be an effect of weather," Warren Wood of the Public Service Commission said. Could the price shock have been prevented? Last July the state's regulator, the Public Service Commission, warned of rising prices. The Department of Energy did the same in August. MGE said that they went to the PSC with a plan to lock in a long-term price, and they got approval for it. The problem is that the price they locked in, about $4.46 for a basic unit of gas, was already out of date. "Exactly -- the market had already swept by that price level by the time we got the deal in August," Cattron said. Some people challenge that. In any event, the state will investigate whether or not MGE's 44 percent increase is justified. But it will be a year and a half to two years, maybe longer, before they reach a decision, Mahoney reported.


Black Blade: So it goes. Spreading across the land like wildfire. I saw a NG analyst from Goldman Sachs this afternoon on CNBC who said that NG prices would decline rapidly from here. NG is currently up $0.21 at $6.59 Mbtu. Hmmm…

HoratioMy view of the world#471842/2/2001; 2:00:24

SCARE'EM AND SAVE'EM ... Thats the force that Preachers,Politicians,Doctors use to get your money.
Now that I've enlightened some of you I shall go to bed...Douce image

skiIt's been a long day.#471852/2/2001; 2:26:27

http://www.nynco.com/fuel_prices.html

I think I finally got this link entered correctly for uranium spot prices. Sorry for any confusion that this may have caused.
Black BladeAP Poll: US Opposes Alaska Drilling - "Can You Believe These People?" #471862/2/2001; 2:29:14

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010202/us/energy_ap_poll_3.html

By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - A majority of Americans say they oppose exploring for oil in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge , though most admit they are affected a lot by high fuel prices and concerned that California-like energy problems could hit their communities, according to a poll by The Associated Press. ``I don't think they should explore for energy there because it's a wildlife refuge,'' said Patricia Chandler, a businesswoman from Herrin, Ill. ``if they reserved it for the animals, they should leave it for the animals.'' The Bush administration says it is in favor of opening the Arctic refuge for energy exploration. Some have accused President Bush of using California's power woes as a way to promote his plan to explore for oil on protected Alaska lands.


**Black Blade: The President of the Sierra Club has called ANWR the Serengeti of North America. ANWR is in reality a black fly and mosquito infested hellhole in the tundra with natural oil seeps in abundance. Besides, the caribou run to the warmth of the Alaska pipeline in the dead of winter. They don't seem to be inconvenienced much.

A majority in the poll said that higher fuel prices already affect them significantly, and six in 10 are concerned they could experience problems like the power shortages, high prices and intermittent blackouts in California. The poll was conducted for the AP by ICR of Media, Pa. About half of those worried about the problem said they are very concerned. Half the poll respondents in Western states said they were very concerned, compared with one in five in the South and Midwest and about a quarter in the Northeast. Blacks were twice as likely as whites to be very concerned. People were about evenly split on whether the federal government should help California solve its problems. Young adults between 18 and 34 were twice as likely as senior citizens to say the federal government should help.


**Black Blade: Yeah, God forbid that MTV and Hollywood can't make anymore music videos because the rest didn't foot the bill for subsidized energy to Kalifornia.

``I think the federal government should step in and do something, just so people can afford their energy,'' said Chandler, a 31-year-old Democrat. ``It's pretty bad when people have to turn the heat down just to pay their bills.''


**Black Blade: Hmmm…, like maybe they should …..BUILD POWER PLANTS, AND DRILL FOR SOME OIL AND NATURAL GAS MAYBE!

Some have little sympathy for California, which has experienced problems in recent weeks after the state deregulated its power industry, allowing producers to sell at market levels, while limiting utilities from passing along the soaring energy costs. The state has struggled to keep the lights on over many recent days. ``Californians made their own bed, they need to lie in it,'' said Gerald Eisenhour, a 64-year-old retired chemical plant operator from Cold Springs, Texas. ``They're the ones who did not build their power plants. Why should the rest of the country bail them out?''


**Black Blade: Because that would mean taking some responsibility, and most Kalifornians are loath to taking personal responsibility. Besides, they are "Special" people.

Forty-six percent of those in the poll believe Bush can handle the nation's energy problems effectively, 38 percent think not. More than half of Democrats said he would not be effective and independents were about evenly split in the poll of 1,033 taken Jan. 26 through Tuesday. The poll has an error margin of 3 percentage points. ``I think Bush has got the right people, and he's going at it the right way,'' said Eisenhour, who describes himself as a conservative Republican.


**Black Blade: I doubt it. He's a politician, but who knows – I've been surprised before.

The president has said California generally will have to resolve its own problems, though the administration has signaled it would be willing to roll back pollution requirements at the state's power plants and find other ways to help the state. More broadly, Bush has asked Vice President Dick Cheney to lead the development of an energy plan to address the nation's needs. The poll suggests he has plenty of work to do on that front. Just over half, 53 percent, said they oppose the plan to explore for oil in the protected Arctic wilderness, while 33 percent favor the idea. An additional 13 percent said they did not know. Just over half of Republicans say they favor the plan. More than six in 10 registered voters said they oppose the Arctic drilling, as well as more than half, 56 percent, of independents and two-thirds of Democrats. ``I think they should open up the Arctic,'' said Bill Metheny, a retired crane operator from Anita, Iowa, and a Democrat with a different view. ``People are freezing to death and they can't heat their homes.''


**Black Blade: You notice that the Kalifornians don't ask Alaskans what they think or what they want. I guess that those in Kalifornia are just know better the needs of Alaskans (and the rest of the US)and must look after us as they would for small children. Otherwise Alaskans (and the rest of us) just might end up in an devastating energy crisis just like...., …….Uh, er, I mean, …….er, …..Oh Never mind.

SteveHPerplexed#471872/2/2001; 2:30:18

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/clawar020201.html

good thoughts.

For the CFTC, see the link.

SteveHThe end of naiveness, the Internet#471882/2/2001; 2:55:09

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.html

has ended it for us all, and replaced it with knowledge. So, what shall we do now...?
Randy (@ The Tower)Peter Asher (msg#: 47171)#471892/2/2001; 3:25:35

I learned long ago at this forum that I am particularly ill-suited to serve as any manner of teacher, so have long since ceased in the effort. As is so often necessary, one lesson must build upon a prior lesson or information, yet I have no ability to know which of "my classes" were attended and which ones were skipped. Unable to meet the teacher's challenge to bring up all students together to a level of understanding (within the very small realm in which I could speak with some degree of authority), it seemed best for me to simply provide the news and evidence with a bare amount of supportive commentary, letting all others follow this news at their own pace...that is, if they choose to follow it at all. I will gladly share a part in their research, but I will not attempt to do their thinking. (Otherwise, I would be inclined to jump to the conclusion and say, "Buy gold the metal, not gold the paper" and these tiresome postings of mine thus become unnecessary.) If conclusive evidence were required of my utter failings as one who might be capable of teaching others, then we need look no further than the entirety of your line of questioning to me. These are the very items I have been prodigiously typing about in varying degrees of detail over the past days, weeks, months, and years here.

Importantly, it is clear from your post that we are not simply facing the challenge of misunderstanding of words and miscommunication...you have made your points quite clear, and I thank you for efforts at unequivocal expression. You see one world from your tower, and I seem to see Another from mine. And though I have great respect for your view and your comments, where I am sitting the sky here is so clear (and the birches are so pleasant), that I am not inclined to change my view to match yours. Neither will I infringe on anyone's freedom with a suggestion that they come around to my way of thinking. And that is how it is going to be.

I once said long ago that many roads may lead one to gold. Oh, but how much easier the journey can be on the senses, though, when the right road is chosen, providing the surest footing. I will continue to strive to give helpful information, but I will not give directions....an infringement upon your free will.

PandagoldSteve H #471902/2/2001; 3:38:51

Your link (The end of naiveness, the Internet
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.html)
more or less says all I have been trying to get across. I know the writer would like to be even more explicit, but dare not.

The rumblings beneath the surface are getting louder and, like a volcano, may erupt one day with devastating consequences.

It is best that 'WHO ARE the Cabal' is left for the current naive to discover for themselves, only then will their light be lit.

Unfortunately, I fear that should the volcano erupt, it will be once again that the innocent will suffer for the guilty. The innocent know that, and that is their greatest fear, and mine too.

Black BladeCanada's Barrick Gold increases profits but takes cash provision hit#471912/2/2001; 3:53:28

London--Feb. 1--Canada's Barrick Gold recorded net operating income of US $104 million, or 26 cents per share, for the quarter ended Dec. 31, a 28% rise from the $81 million, or 20 cents per share, for the same quarter in 1999. Following a $1.1 billion non-cash provision, however, Barrick had a net loss for the quarter of $996 million, or $2.51 per share. The company took the after- tax provision "to adjust the carrying value of assets to reflect lower gold prices seen recently", it said.

Black Blade: The so-called "most profitable gold mining company in the whole wide world" wrote down their value? I know that there are a lot of so-called "gold mine analysts" on some other sites, including miningweb that flogged this dog over the last several months. Now they have reported horrendous write down losses! A whopping Billion Dollar write down in just one quarter! It appears that those reserves weren't covered by the forward sales program. I guess my puny holdings in Harmony (HGMCY), Goldfields (GOLD), Franco-Nevada (T.FN) and physical PMs will just have to do for now. Oh yeah, I'm in positive territory on my PM stocks, can shareholders of hedge-fund Barrick (ABX) say the same? The only winners at Barrick are the Big Fat Happy Managers that get their Big Fat Bonus checks at the expense of their unwitting shareholders. It is no wonder that rumors abound that Barrick is looking to takeover unhedged miners so that they can strip them of their assets and drive down the POG with more forward sales.

Rhodytest#471922/2/2001; 4:03:07

.
Black BladeDJ Japan's Jipangu To Become S Africa Harmony Biggest Hldr#471932/2/2001; 4:08:49

JOHANNESBURG (Dow Jones)--Japanese unlisted investment fund Jipangu Inc. is to acquire a 21% interest in South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HGMCY), the country's third-biggest producer, said a mine executive Friday. Bernard Swanepoel, Harmony's chief executive, told Dow Jones Newswires the investment is in two tranches. The first 8.0% interest will be bought by the end of April and the remaining 13% at a later time. By buying 8.0% of the miner, Jipangu will become Harmony's largest shareholder. The price will depend on the Harmony share price at the time of acquisition, said Swanepoel, with the figure at current value around $130 million.

"There's a lot on interest among Japanese investors in gold and there's no listed vehicle for this interest. We represent a viable, unhedged producer and Jipangu has ambitions to become that investment vehicle," said the executive.

He said company strategy wouldn't be changed and that Harmony was keen to agree a "standstill agreement to cap further investment (at 21%) for this reason." Harmony's share price on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa rose 25 cents ($1=ZAR7.7395), or 0.7%, to ZAR35.50 in early dealings Friday.

Black Blade: The second paragraph is interesting. A Japanese resurgence in gold investment. Let's see, US Dollar falling, stock markets don't look so good anymore, and a run to so-called safe-haven stocks. I would like to see how much of an increase in physical gold interest there is in Japan. Hmmm...

Black BladeI-T raids on jewellers unearth 105 kgs of gold#471942/2/2001; 4:17:21

Whatta ya mean no demand in India?

EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE

MUMBAI, FEB 1: Raids last week by the directorate of investigation, Income Tax, on jewellers in the city have yielded a whopping 105 kgs of unaccounted gold, valued at Rs 4.26 cr. The raids, involving teams of, in all, 150 officers and men, covered jewellers in middle class localities like Parel and Ghatkopar in Mumbai. The action revealed mass-scale concealment of stocks and income. A seizure of cash amounting to Rs 8.68 lakh and FDRs worth Rs 10 lakh were also made with the gold seizures. Three more premises, including one factory, are still under prohibitory orders, and the seizure of gold is likely to increase by the end of this week. Those covered are mainly manufacturers of gold chains. The jewellers include Prashant Jewellers, Sejal Jewellers, Chain and Chain and Sangam Jewellers. Accountants of some of the assessees also allegedly confessed that the stock registers were not authentic and were made on the basis of oral instructions by owners. The issue of gold for manufacture and the purchases allegedly did not tally, sources in the directorate said. Most of the assesses were filing returns of Rs one to five lakh though their turnover was in the region of Rs two to four crore. One of the assessees, Khyalilal Tater of Prashant Jewellers, allegedly obstructed the I-T team when they were searching his premises. He was arrested. The team had tried to seize his papers relating to cash transactions in the construction business.

Black Blade: We hear of declining interest in gold in India. 105 kgs in one raid, in one small city. Ever wonder how much comes into the country and is "off-the-books?" Gold is liquid, it is anonymous, and obviously in such demand that many will risk a lot.

RhodyLEASE RATES#471952/2/2001; 4:52:34

http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.silv.html

The lease rate market is returning to pre-1998 (pre-Buffett)
conditions of virtually zero spread between one month and
one year rates. Zero spreads indicate incipient backwardation in the silver debt markets. This normally
would be bullish, indicating tightness in the supply
of metal (lack of liquidity). But the overall level
of rates is also approaching 1%. This cheap price for
borrowing silver suggests there is excess liquidity.
So, we have an oxymoron pattern here. Narrowing spreads
indicate tightening of supplies, yet narrowing of spreads
at ever lower rates indicates increasing liquidity.
Most of the narrowing of spreads has been by a drop in
one year lease rates, the lease term that is used by
mines to sell forward. So fewer mines are selling
forward (hedging). Six months ago, the one year lease
rate for silver was 3.5%, with the spread at 2.5%.
So what does all this mean? I like to think of
the spread as the size of the lease silver supply pipe,
and the overall rate as the pressure in the pipe by
monetary interests to supply metal in order to suppress
the spot price. When lease rates are low, this is
an attempt by bullion banks and central banks to push
physical metal on to the spot market to depress the spot
price and hide inflation. So low overall lease rates
indicate that right now silver is being pushed onto the
spot market but there are few takers. Meanwhile, the
overall supply of metal is dropping, so the spread
(sise of the pipe) is shrinking. More metal being
pushed through a shrinking pipe means pressure in the
silver market is building.
Let's look at this overstressed lease pipe in a
wider context. Leasing only makes sense when you
can borrow a cheap asset that is stable to declining in
price in order to sell it in the spot market to reinvest
the cash in interest-bearing paper vehicles like T-Bills.
for cash that is itself appreciating. We have had a
ONE PERCENT DROP IN US INTEREST RATES IN JUST THREE WEEKS.
So yields on one month to one year T-bills are falling
fast, and so is the dollar in which they are denominated.
That means the silver carry trade that has rationalized
the leasing game is dying. Our over-pressured leasing
pipe is now resting on a financial foundation that is
itself becoming unstable.
The whole carry trade relationship can be summed up
in the equation:
Profit of carry trade = (T-bill - inflation) - LR

where T-bill means interest rate on the T-bill of same term
as the term of the lease,
inflation is the % inflation over the term of the lease,
and LR is the % of the lease rate.
In the above equation, the T-bills are going DOWN, the
inflation is going UP, and the LR can't be dropped any
more without busting the pipe. Dropping interst rates
and raising inflation rates is death to the carry trades
and this will set silver free.
A more visual illustration of the above pattern can
be viewed with the provided link to sharefin's charts over
on kitco.
Regards, Rhody

Peter AsherRandy (@ The Tower) 3:25:35MT msg#: 47189)#471962/2/2001; 5:08:46

I must have missed something way back there. I hadn't realized you were supposed to be the teacher and we the students, I thought we were here to figure out the truth.
SteveHThe sixth horseman?#471972/2/2001; 5:40:20

Lowering interest rates, Rhody?

How 'bought gold, Rhody, should we not soon experience the same trend in lease rate formula?

SteveHBlack Blade#471982/2/2001; 5:44:55

So, did CA sell their soul (and their future) in the deal that brought them into the power supply business?

What were the terms of this phenomenal agreement?

And on whose advice did the CA Gov. begin to think that not allowing supply and demand to reign would ever solve their long-term problems?

Pandagold Black Blade #47194#471992/2/2001; 5:46:51

It is the section re Japan's increasing interest in the gold market that is of particular general interest( though being a Harmony stockholder the other interests me, personally, too)

Japan is closely aware of what is taking place in China, they know what the impact on the general market will be. They also know, as do all of Asia, that they need to build some insurance protection against this growing 'western' denomination of economics ( and consequently their culture) by currency.

To them the Euro, will only be 'the dollar' in disguise, at least, if things progress as they are at present ( I allow for rumblings within factions of 'The Union' to try to deflect this, as more of the world,through 'enlightenment', raise their voices).

You can say I am wrong, I am not offended. But please keep your eye on the ball - CHINA!.

PandagoldBlack Blade, (I erred re reference)#472002/2/2001; 5:51:37

That reference should have been #47193
Sorry

Black BladeRE: SteveH#472012/2/2001; 6:07:06

Hi There - it's been a while,

I don't know all the gory details yet on the California "Bond-Bail-out" deal yet. I know that the first vote was short by 3 votes. The Republicans apparently weren't happy with the fine-print. They hashed out a deal that is likely to be signed by the Kommissar. There is a $10 billion bond package with an immediate release of $590 million for the purchase of electricity. Although PG&E lost their revolving credit yesterday as a result of the default on their bonds. The banks are none to happy right now and this could be reflected on Bank of America's balance sheet this next reporting period. Of course someone has to pay for the electricity and NG, and that will either be passed along to the consumers, or reflected in higher taxes. Either way, the lack of preparation will cost the people of the state dearly. These costs will also come out of the hides of a lot of High-Tech firms as well. Recession is already a fore-gone conclusion, and this just pins a big hairy exclamation point on it. As far as who's responsible or on who's advice? I don't know. I do know that the Democrat dominated legislature are the ones responsible for outlining the current form of Kalifornia-style deregulation, though it was signed by a Republican governor (Pete Wilson). I'm sure that we will learn more today. Oh yeah, a lot of producers in surrounding states and Canada are worried that they may not be paid for electricity and NG already delivered. Could get "Interesting."

- Black Blade

Black BladeRE: pandagold#472022/2/2001; 6:16:52

I bought Harmony shares a couple of years ago and then sold some to recover my cost basis more or less. I recently bought more at under $4.00. They have about the cleanest balance sheet except for perhaps Goldfields. What is most important for me is that they are extremely profitable, represent good value, are fully leveraged/geared to the POG and don't hedge as a matter of corporate philosophy. On a per share basis they are the most profitable miners in the world. They make hedge-fund miners like Barrick look sickly and foolish. There is no excuse to sell forward unless you have no confidence in your product. If you have no confidence in your product (gold), you should get out of the business and into another. Of course, I have some physical as well (bullion and numismatic). Just can't be too careful ya know. Cheers!

- Black Blade

PandagoldBlack Blade#472032/2/2001; 6:19:21

Exactly my sentiments
PandagoldRhody: Silver #47195#472042/2/2001; 6:26:08

You are probably very close to the truth. Apex, in which Soros is supposed to be involved (never can quite tell with these jokers, hence my caution), has been building up some upward thrust, recently. It is said that movement in the mines (either way) usually precedes that of the underlying metal.

This may be some way down the road, but it is these small 'factual' indicators which are the best prophesiers

Black BladeRe; pandagold - all#472052/2/2001; 6:26:49

Oh yeah, I might add that I "liberated" a few Uruguayan 5 pesos from the castle not long ago. Since I didn't have any of those in my "collection" I grabbed a "Fist-Full!" OK, so I have a small fist, but they're nice!
tedwsilver#472062/2/2001; 6:50:21

Rhody:

thanks for your post on silver. Very instructive. The education we get here is better than any school.

Just bought a December silver option. I might buy another next week.

rcYour myopic history lesson#472072/2/2001; 7:04:00

Stocks,Lies and Ticker Tape

As your post is not adressed to me, I am not going to elaborate. But let me tell you one thing : you still believe in Santa Klaus.
Black BladeUh-Oh! Gold Gets Spanked!#472082/2/2001; 7:04:08

Gold down -$1.70 at the open in NY. Situation normal.

Unemployment Rate Rose to 4.2% in January, But Payroll Growth Was Stronger Than Expected. Nonfarm payrolls grew 268,000 in January, the biggest increase since April, the Labor Department said Friday. But the government said job growth in December was just 19,000, down from an initial estimate of 105,000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, climbed to 4.2% from 4% in December.

Black Blade: The spin is that since wages didn't rise = no inflation! Hmmm...

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePerplexed,.......Thank you.#472092/2/2001; 7:32:22

My familiy shares your family's connection to that raid over Schwienfort. My father in law was severely wounded while serving as a gunner on that raid. Their service and sacrifice is not forgotten.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Taperc,.....Please elaborate#472102/2/2001; 7:36:04

No veteran I have ever known, fought for gold.
DaveCSteve H #47188#472112/2/2001; 7:46:37

What shall we do now?

Steve, I have not read that article though I read everything at GE. I will get to that one this weekend.

What the internet does is provide information, mis-information, dis-information.

Knowledge, as defined in my dictionary, is:
1. The state or fact of knowing
2. Familiarity, awareness, or understanding gained through experience and study.

The internet itself is one forum for study, like a library. The knowledge is gained from the study experience using the internet. I guess the author could argue word semantics with me but it's not that important for what I have to say here.

I sent Bill Bonner at the Daily Reckoning an idea last year when he was talking about knowledge and the internet.

I have been in the computer consulting business in some way or another for 20 years. A phrase that was developed in the 1990s was "the knowledge worker." This was a name given to, for example, people who handled medical claims forms. They make decisons based on the information they are given on a specific case and a certain set of rules, but they also have some leeway. If they have doubt, of course, they send it upstairs.

The other experience of mine that led to my idea was in studying the Clinton phenomenon in the 90s. They were sold to America as the "world's most knowledgeable couple." Rhodes Scholar, lawyers, Hillary the smartest woman on the planet, blah, blah, blah. (No attacks please, it's just an example)

I told Bonner that we need to take the "knowledge" a step further and talk more about "wisdom." He did work it into one of his daily scribblings.

This is what I believe is lacking today. Leadership starts with wisdom, and we as a society, are sorely lacking wisdom today.

Just my humble opinion.

Wisdom: Understanding of what is true, right, or lasting.

Like Gold.

Crossroads(No Subject)#472122/2/2001; 7:49:35

Black Blade, I love your style! The grasshoppers dancing is perfect…I have a little sticker of the lead grasshopper from the show "A Bugs Life" at my desk that one of my co-workers gave me and I chuckle at your end post saying every time! Great sarcasm, especially the "Kalifornians", it reminds me of the attitude that the locals have in the small mountain town of Salida, Colorado. They say "Don't Kalifornicate our town". Too late…Can you say consumption? Anyway, post 41786 was so good, I just had to say, "Good Job!"

Randy, post 47171… spoken with class and integrity, I admire that. A good example of the quality leadership found at USA Gold.

DaveCEver Notice That Voting Is Like Investing?#472132/2/2001; 8:01:18

The single biggest mistake the average investor, and I use the word loosely, makes is not getting out of a losing position.

To do so is an admition of a mistake and people, especially men, do not like to admit mistakes. So they hold on to the stock (or whatever) in the hope that the price will turn around and return to where they had originally placed their dream when they bought it.

Voters are the same way. They will defend to the death their candidate no matter what the circumstances. No matter how much truth is revealed, they just cannot admit that they made a mistake. So they will attack the truth-sayer ruthlessly.

Another part along the same lines is what stops people from voting for third party candidates. Everyone wants his/her man/woman to WIN. No one wants to be associated with a loser. In America we all want to be on the winning team.

So the masses cannot be seen to vote for a guy/girl who "doesn't have a chance."

It is a very interesting study.

OROPeter Asher - Euro roost#472142/2/2001; 8:02:10

You pointed out that a mechanism was lacking in FOA's presentations as to the move towards Euro and dollars "returning home to roost" thereby causing hyperinflation. I would like to hear FOA tell it, but I will forward my own view, which might do until FOA gives his own, since I do subscribe to his view on both those issues up to a point. My main caveat about this scenario is that of the EU being politically incapable of being the main reserve currency issuer because of the effect this has on the real internal economic structure, namely that of hollowing out of industry, where very militant European labor unions and members have their memberships, and where governments have their ownership concentrated.

Another's apparent expected gold reserve structure to the Euro can provide some clue as to why the Euro seems to him and FOA capable of holding reserve status. To see this, let's first look at the dollar system. The main problem with the dollar system's structure is the inherent deflationary effect it has abroad, and the inflationary effect it has at home - with the exception of periodic deflationary bouts. The cause of the problem is that there is no such thing as a cash dollar. Each dollar is backed by a loan that created it. Thus, in order to make payment on one's debt, new dollars must be created through expansion of dollar borrowing. In the US this is a $2+ trillion demand for the year 2001. Outside the US, some $0.6 trillion is needed for this purpose, the bulk of this quantity is supplied by the US trade deficit rather than by debt expansion external to the US, though there have been relatively short periods when external debt expansion did so. These were during US recessions caused by a lack of foreign dollar debt growth in prior periods.

The lack of debt expansion causes the system to become illiquid, as has been the case since early 2000. The official sector reaction to this "systemic problem" is to encourage new debt through lower interest rates and injections of money by purchase of government and government related market debt.

The Euro reserve model apparently envisioned by Another has gold reserves within the ECB being used as a reserve asset not accessible to the Euro holder for exchange on demand, though he might mean that Euro are exchanged with gold by the ECB on the open market so as to maintain a Euro POG that balances the ECB books.

The main advantage is that this introduces a cash element to the currency system. This cash component allows the payment of existing debt with currency that is created by something other than new debt. This essentially means that Euro can be provided into the market without changing the interest rate directly. Money supply and credit can be maintained at economically driven values rather than liquidity driven values.

The secondary advantage is that the Euro liquidity needs, both internationally and within the EMU can be addressed without changing international trade patterns in a politically unacceptable and economically dangerous manner through the hollowing out effect on manufacture that is the imperative of the dollar system as it currently stands (i.e. Triffin's dilemma and the imperative of the reserve currency issuer running a trade deficit).

Though this eliminates the need for the ECB to buy and sell debt on the credit and banking markets in order to affect money supply and interest rates, being an extra degree of freedom in the ECBs portfolio of powers, it is also a source of potential new errors. If the ECB is meant to somehow maintain a balance of its marked to market books as a restriction, this still leaves too much flexibility, and the same room for error. It also retains a centralized control of the money supply and credit, and thus rather than being a step towards free markets, it is actually an inclusion of gold into the central bank direct control, and is as unlikely as it is ever so to be a net benefit to the world or to the EU. But the jury is out on their capacity to do this for now.

The escape hatch for this system as an international trade currency system is that the supply of Euro to Euro credit markets in countries outside the EU does not have to come from a trade deficit. If the ex-EU market needs Euro, the ECB can just issue them by buying gold on the markets with fresh Euro.

On the face of it, it provides the ECB with potential tools to provide the international reserve what it needs. However, I am skeptical of their ability to do this, since the temptation to obtain priviege (print up money) will stand there beckoning for expansion of credit and gold purchases.

On the dollar coming home to roost, perhaps later.


A criticism of mark to market regimes.

The Japanese experiment with mark to market regimes for real-estate was a self defeating system that caused real-estate to become the main source of security for borrowers. Such a system brings the market to stop trading real-estate, instead forcing participants to hold on to it as the realities of market cash flow's diminished stature relative to real-estate asset values makes the actual purchase of a property nearly impossible out of cash flow, and therefore of having expected future income to cover debt service. Only present owners, who do not have to finance the whole of their ownership can afford their property. Indeed, in downtown Tokyo, no land was directly sold for the whole of the decade of the 80s (BW anecdote).

The reason for mark to market regimes being irrelevant to financial instruments/securities is that the fact of the holder's purchase and sale are acts of disagreement with the market price. A buyer of a security believes it is undervalued, a seller believes it is undervalued. The market clearing price is always a temporary one, composed of the decisions of buyers and sellers as to the security value or in response to particular needs for raising or vacating cash for liquidity or arbitrage purposes. Transactions to raise or distribute capital are not such actions, as they involve judgment and choice, whereas liquidity issues - particularly on the need to raise cash - are forced, and arbitrage does not involve judgment per se.

Furthermore, as shown by the discounts and premiums to net asset value on closed end funds, there is a value assigned by the markets to the judgment of particular people and their organizations regarding their disagreement with the market (the NAV value). The same premium and discount is applied to holding companies and to companies with heavy investment portfolios, such as Berkshire Hathaway, Leucadia and others.

Finally, intentions have a large influence on the relevance of the mark to market regime to assessing book values. If a debt security or a loan is expected by the holder to be held to maturity and be paid at 100% or any particular fraction of the expected future payout, the fact that the market has different expectations is not relevant to the holder. The holder is not intending to sell at the market price. The imposition of market price on a holder's reported book value is thus a negation of that holder's presentation of his/her judgment and intentions in the most crucial of his financial information releases. It is an obfuscating rather than enlightening device.

Therefore, the forced assignment by government of particular bookkeeping practices in general, and mark to market in particular, are damaging to companies, the investing public, and the stability of the financial system.

The best way to use mark to market regimes is to supply the market value data as informational addenda that provide a baseline for comparisons to other companies rather than force the exclusive disclosure of market values.

Humble PieDaveC #47211#472152/2/2001; 8:06:57

xxxxxx You are right what we need is leadership with wisdom. Life does not guarantee that we will get wisdom as we grow older .mostoften we just grow older.Politicians and diapers have one thing in common.They should both be changed regularly and for the same reason.xxxx
JMBGoldman Sachs...it's a Hat Trick!#472162/2/2001; 8:12:33

For three days in a row GS has stopped Gold contracts at the Comex (potentially taking delivery)...today they stopped 1207 of the 2635 Gold contracts issued.
rcOK! I'll elaborate. (Somewhat)#472172/2/2001; 8:20:03

Stocks,Lies and Tickers Tales

You should read what Steve H brought us today. It will explain much better what I have in mind. Here is the link:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/schicht020201.html

What this guy says, started already a long time ago. At least 100 years and probably more. Strange things happened from the French Revolution then onwards.

No! No US veteran ever fought for gold. They fought and got killed for an ideal. What they did not know was that there is no idealistic war. Everything turns around economy (money) and power. Basically gold as Pandagold tried to explain. You cannot send kids to war which such motives. Hence the ideal. And after all, it suited very well the American nation for the last two generations. But if they had known at that time what I know today, they would have shot their own government.

Don't get me wrong. American people is one thing, their government is something else. Your government doesn't have American people interests at heart. They follow their own agenda which is world domination and slavery for most, American included. And use American military power and blood for that purpose.

PandagoldStocks, Lies and Ticker Tape#472182/2/2001; 8:45:55

I shouldn't say any more, re has said it, I see, while I was writing this, However, it is writ, and the moving finger........


Why don't you take those emotional blinkers off, fellow knight. I reprint again part of my post to you.
You will see CLEARLY, if you become less emotional, that I anticipated you carrying this thing on, and told you I was prepared to accept whatever your mind conjured up in disagreement. But NO, you have to go on.

Where do I say, that ANY soldier fought for gold? MOST of the poor souls fought for one reason - they were forced too. Incidentally, the Russians had plenty of gold, they are one of the world's largest producers.

What was one of the first things the allies searched for after victory - German gold. Gold is behind everything, and has been, all through history. Because gold represents POWER!

The quote of mine, which should not be taken out of context, to which I refer:-

<<<It was GOLD which won the last war, and not the US government's gold. But that's another story and I don't wish to get involved in emotional and lengthy arguments on that score. So, I accept any comment that may rush to your mind expressing disagreement, to save you the need of voicing it.

Now as to 'envy.' I love America and the ordinary American people, but not those that have your country in such a tight grip. Ones who have destroyed over time, the principles on which that nation was founded.

I also love all other countries, I know personally, and the ordinary people of that country. If you had truly read my postings you would have seen that.>>>


Why do you comment on only what suits you, and ignore the rest?

Now we can all go into the - my uncle this, and my father that, and stir up emotions.

But in the knowledge that this will give away my age I will tell you - as a small child in my mothers arms I was blown from one side of the room to the other with my face full of glass, and covered in blood, from two high explosive bombs which hit simultaneously.

I saw more war, first hand, and came to near death more times, than many a serviceman, and so did many other British kids..

Do I hate my enemy because of this - No! How many of their kids did we blow across a room.

We have been brainwashed into believing so much crap about why we fight wars, that so many of us actually have come to believe it. Why did all those people really die?
Germany has been put holding a position far higher than she had ever dreamed before the war began. And so has Japan. Who helped this along? Who controls their Banks (their gold). Ah if only the truth could be revealed.

Deep down behind all this facade is one word - MONEY! (= GOLD = REAL MONEY = POWER) More than one word, I know, but they all equal the same thing.

And that is why EVERY war has been fought, and will be in the future.

Yes, many people are beginning to get wise, and this is why the TPTB are trying to develop wars where they won't have to rely on 'enlisted' men, but it can be done by just a few in white coats, or perhaps suits, pushing buttons from a concealed bunker.

At least Sir Slatt, you haven't got so far as to believing Rambo won it, and is sat there waiting for the next one.

Galearis@Rhody#472192/2/2001; 8:56:00

Welcome back!

Kitco's loss is (all) our gain(s).

And I also applaud your restraint in NOT stating the extent of the rigging in this data as well. Perhaps in another post?

Regards,

G

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, For someone to disagree with you#472202/2/2001; 9:03:06

is your opportunity to immediately level the charge of "emotionalism". It gets so old.
Peter AsherCrossroads (2/2/2001; 7:49:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47212)#472212/2/2001; 9:11:01

msg@47171 was my post to Randy, were you referring to it or to his susequent post dismissing it.
Peter AsherPerplexed#4722202/02/01; 09:34:55

Good to see you back

Thanks for your most gracious remarks. I'm pleased you enjoyed her letter. The story of the children on the hill still gets to me whenever I read it. There is an ultimate lesson in that window into a world of values so different from ours. Further along she observed "You see there are three worlds; America, the rest of the world, and Outer Mongolia. She rode further North, to an alpine area along the Russian border and stayed awhile with a tribe she called "The Reindeer People."

She later told us that she thought for a time, that she would just stay there and never go back.

I imagine you will have more then enough time to peruse chapter #1 before I get another written.I was hoping to get some dialog going on it but so far only a little denial has surfaced. E-mail however has been buzzing a bit. So far, #2 will delve into the Money Supply and #3, Big Float. #4 is tentatively titled "What if a wolf DOES come out of the forest?"

CoBra(too)Re: ORO's latest Message - #4722302/02/01; 09:44:23

Hope to find time later to aks a few questions - and not only on marked to market, where I have some difficulty to follow, though only in terms of real m o n e y.

Meanwhile, CPM/Usagold is absolutely unbeatable in the pricing of bullion coins, as I have just stumbled across a poster at Kitco, quoting some bullion coins 2-3% higher than MK's selling prices. Thank you - cb2

Crossroads(No Subject)#4722402/02/01; 09:44:24

My mistake, Peter. Refer that to message #47189.
JMBI'm getting that "LIFT OFF" kinda feeling #4722502/02/01; 09:55:42

Is it for real?...or is it something I ate?
beestingSir JMB # 47216 A Hat Trick!#4722602/02/01; 09:58:43

Sir, I don't suppose you are in a position to see if Goldman Sachs is placing "Orders" for an account holder, or trading for their own account.
I don't think it would be a breach of confidentially if this fact were disclosed, and it would sure enlighten a lot of us Goldhearts.
Thanks for all your posts....beesting.

Peter AsherORO (2/2/2001; 8:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 47214)#4722702/02/01; 09:59:19

Thanks for the response, I've still to digest it. Probably only a quick read before work.

I am a bit mystified by your reference to "FOA's presentation," I never mentioned him in this. "Dollars coming home to roost." is a term I associate with the greater world of monetary discussion. If that is a term coined by FOA, I appreciate the information

PandagoldStocks, Lies, &. Ticker Tape#4722802/02/01; 10:02:22

Sir Slatt, I am well used to people disagreeing with me. That has been the secret of 'their' succes, they have kept the majority hoodwinked - as all who share 'the knowledge' will testify.

If the majority of people could have seen what has been going on (and still is) then we would not be faced with this situation.

It is becoming easier as time goes on, as more and more people, from their own observation, are beginning to 'see the light'.

It could well be that there could be some truth in the cliché - give a them a length of rope, and eventually they will hang themselves. Though I doubt it, it has gone on far too long, and there have been raised voices before, and even the man who is acclaimed as 'the son of God' (though, aren't we ALL son's of God)? couldn't stop it - he paid with his life trying to.

So, I have taken the soft option. If gold is the source of their power (their cryptonite), then I should have some. And that is why I am here - to learn all there is to know about this 'cryptonite'.

When you hold real gold in your hand, you hold a piece of history. That original piece, though it now may bear the image of an American Eagle, or Chinese Panda, or Britannia, could have once been held by a Roman, ancient Greek, or been transported on a Spanish galleon, because gold is always as fresh as the day it was mined. Sometimes this gold has been melted down through the ages and turns up as a modern item.

Now this is the kind of emotion I can identify with. Don't get me wrong - not worship - just the emotion of appreciating a wonder of nature - pure, unadulterated ( well, almost) GOLD!

DaveCKnights in Shining Armor#4722902/02/01; 10:04:50

Since this is the "theme" hear I would like to offer up some reading material for leisure time.

The first is Michael Crichton's Timeline. An exellecnt novel, IMHO, that I read during the holidays. Travel back to 14th Century France through a time machine. Jousting, damsels in distress, all the good stuff. And a happy ending.

The second is a series of books called The Skystone by Jack Whyte. There are six books in the series, of which I have read only the first. A real page turner. Go back to Roman England and read how Excalibur was made.

The Legend of the Skystone
Out of the night sky there wil fall a Stone
That hides a maiden born of murky deeps,
A maid whose fire-fed, female mysteries
Shall give life to a lambent, gleaming blade,
A blazing, shining sword whose potency
Breeds warriors. More than that,
This weapon will contains a woman's wiles
And draw dire deeds of men; shall name an age;
Shall crown a king, called of a mountain clan
Who dream of being spawned from dragon's seed;
Fell, forceful men, heroic, proud and strong,
With greatness in their souls.
This king, this monarch, mighty beyond ken,
Fashioned of glory, singing a song of swords,
Misting with magic madness mortal men,
Shall sire a legend, yet leave none to lead
His host to triumph after he be lost.
But death shall ne'er demean his destiny who,
Dying not, shall ever live and wait to be recalled.

Enjoy.

Peter AsherCrossroads msg#: 47224 & #47212#4723002/02/01; 10:07:02

You are calling that leadership???

How about elaborating on that!

JourneymanExcuse me but - - - DEFINE OR BE DEFINED.#4723102/02/01; 10:10:11

O.K. folks, I'm not in a particularly charitable mood this morning, so I'm not going to mince words. Problem seems to be that I just read Black Blade's report that 56% of those polled think it's a bad idea to "open up the Arctic" to oil and natural gas exploration.

The Republicans are stupid and incompetent in dealing with the media, and thus, the sheeple.

They're stupid and incompetent because "opening up the Arctic" sounds like something they do on MASH or ER. The IMAGE is disturbing.

How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets" instead? This IMAGE is not only much closer to what actually would be done, the IMAGE is less disturbing.

And IMAGE is everything. After 12 years of government brain-washing and TV, the media is indeed the message. The sheeple can't think for themselves - - - and the few that still can, don't trust the results of that proscribed activity.

As Dr. Thomas Szasz says, "Define or be defined."

Think that's silly? Remember they've managed to tarnish inert gold with the sobriquet "barbarous relic."

Republicans seem to be getting a little smarter: They're trying to change "school vouchers" to "parental choice." Good move.

Don't know why I bother with these folks - - - I have libertarian leanings myself, don't you think?

Regards,
Journeyman

Peter AsherDave C, Journeyman#4723202/02/01; 10:15:43

We just read "Timline" also. The historical aspect was extremely enlightening. Fleshed out some history Journeymen gave us on free trade at that time
Peter AsherDaveC re-wisdom.#4723302/02/01; 10:19:18

From Edgar Lee Masters' "Spoon River Anthology":

"Genius equals wisdom plus youth."

JMBBEESTING#4723402/02/01; 10:22:30

Re the final disposition of Goldman Sach's "apparent" Gold position.

These guys are so devious, we have to be careful when we rely on their actions for guidance. I'm just a pee-wee kinda guy who's watching a whole bunch of stuff to help me in my timing for making additions to my Gold position. Lenny Kaplan, aka UPTICK at Kitco, or Bill Murphy who is in South Africa at the moment, MIGHT be able to answer your question.

Perhaps there is someone here who can get to Lenny. I'd ask myself but Kitco depresses me.

JourneymanUnofficial Call to Contest: NO PRIZE! @ALL#4723502/02/01; 10:24:35

"Remember they've managed to tarnish inert gold with the sobriquet 'barbarous relic.'" -Journeyman msg#: 47231

How about a contest to come up with an equivalently derogatory nickname for "fiat?"

With due respect to Black Blade (British slider, Australian peso, etc.) we need a generic term for fiat.

Let me start this unofficial contest with my favorite, "vapor paper."

Regards,
Journeyman

Old YellerRhody#47195#4723602/02/01; 10:31:09

Rhody,thanks for providing background on the metal lease rates and their spreads.

For me,it is sometimes difficult to understand the internal machinations of this market and how it can operate in the fashion it does.If I understand you correctly,the central banks and their dutiful little subordinates must provide low cost metal to the market,in just another way of obfusicating the reality of currency debasement.If the game is becoming unprofitable and increasingly risky for the chosen ones,can we look forward to the central banks taking up the slack and continuing the process?.What are the ethical aspects of this,if and when the truth should come out?An industry is being slowly bled to death,one that has helped immeasurably to further the economic progress of many under-developed countries.

P.S.;I echo Galearis'thoughts,as a matter of fact,it's great to see both of you here.

DaveCJourneyman #47231#4723702/02/01; 10:53:25

How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals?"
DaveCPeter Asher (02/02/01; 10:19:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47233)#4723802/02/01; 10:57:06

Thanks. I will remember that one.

"Genius equals wisdom plus youth."

Got it.

goldfanJourneyman msg#: 47235) name for fiat#4723902/02/01; 11:17:44

How about "counterfiat" ?

Goldfan

JMBJourneyman#4724002/02/01; 11:21:59

Fiat is the "Bane of Security"...or the "Bane of ?"
Whatever, it sure stinks as a store of wealth.

Randy (@ The Tower)Federal Reserves' open market operations: enough is enough...for now.#4724102/02/01; 11:39:38

The Fed's Account Manager chose to forego policy operations today at the 9:30 ET target time. Apparently yesterday's $11.485 billion injection to banking reserves via overnight, seven-day, and 28-day system repurchase agreements was enough to get us through the weekend.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeJourneyman, Naming "Fiat" Contest#4724202/02/01; 11:42:26

How about "Legal Tinder"?
Gandalf the WhiteJourneyman's msg#: 47235) name for fiat#4724302/02/01; 11:43:55

The Hobbits say to just call it for what it is ..... colored cellulose!
<;-)

DaveCJourneyman (02/02/01; 10:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47235)#4724402/02/01; 11:51:37

Barbarous: 1. Wild, primitive; uncivilized. 2. Brutal; savage; cruel. 3. Uncultured or unrefined, esp. in the use of words.

Here are some contest entries:

"float note"
"fiasco fiat"

slingshotSubstitute for natural gas#4724502/02/01; 11:58:52

What is the chemical composition of natural gas? We say natural gas all the time, but do not really know what it is. How complex is this compound. If propane is extracted as a fuel, Why couldn't Hydrogen which can be made from the byproduct of a chemical reaction, be substituted. It is a clean fuel the GRASSHOPPERS can use.
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, in reply to your post....#4724602/02/01; 12:00:51

You write "If gold is the source of their power.....", that premise is where I find myself in such disagreement with you.

I believe Gold is Wealth, and Fiat Currency is Power.

Randy (@ The Tower)Psssssst...hey guys, are you ready for Valentine's Day?#4724702/02/01; 12:24:55

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

Call Marie to save your bacon from the fire.

(To ensure delivery by the 14th, she told me she can accept orders up to Feb. 8th.)

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeSlingshot, substitute for natural gas#4724802/02/01; 12:30:04

Natural gas is a generic term for those hydrocarbons that exist as a gas or vapor at atmospheric pressures and temperatures. Methane (CH4)is the most common and important component of natural gas and of the methane series which includes propane and ethane as well. It is found alone and in association with oil, coal, swamps, landfills etc. It is a byproduct of organic decomposition. The Gulf of Mexico has solidified natural gas in places on the seafloor also. Blue Ribbon above ground sources include termite colonies and cow flatulence!

Hydrogen unless from a well is still relatively expensive to produce.

PandagoldSLATT#4724902/02/01; 12:32:08

You mean 'they' keep the wealth, and give you, the masses, the power (fiat money)?

Their thirst is for power, the gold is their cryptonite for that power. They control by forcing on you the fiat ( soon to be digital)

Get wise - please, Sir Slatt. Otherwise they will eat you alive. I care for you, and everyone who would find this site of interest, because somewhere, deep down, there is a vein of gold in all of us, and we all share a common interest.

I get nothing from trying to outsmart you or anyone. There is no pay dirt there. We don't know each other, at least not by sight. But we do get to know each other by something more indicative and enlightening.

I wish you well

Trail GuideComment#4725002/02/01; 12:55:46

ALL:
Again, I thank everyone for their contributions here and for the chance it gives others to see how a good cross segment of hard money people think. Your posts are valuable to all that read here as they convey every aspect of understanding, from deep thought to personal responses in our changing world.

I have mentioned to USAGOLD that I will never reply to a post in a negative way again. In the future, it must be the managers / owners of this site that instill what flavor it will have, not any of us (me) with our human outcries. Thank you all for reading and supporting this venue.

USAGOLD #47148:

Thank you, Michael, for your noting my piece on the trail. There is much more to this talk as it will explain how this gold dynamic is being used for political objectives today. I hope it leads to a better understanding of, at least, the fundamental forces that have created "This New Gold Market".

Randy #47141:
Thank you, also and I will follow up on your thinking in the next Trails Talk.

------------------

ORO -- #47214 -- Euro roost

Sir, you have, more so, than many of us, offered such a fine commentary over time. I know you realize it would be impossible to reply or even comment on the full content of everything you present. I think you also realize that my drive here has been to point out bits and pieces, more so
than make full conclusions. All done in the spirit of education and extending individual awareness of the future before us, thru gold.

Some time in the future, if events progress enough, I would like a dialog with you that is more than just a small point from my end. Until then, I will simply comment, as able and appropriate in following the political trail. In that spirit, I want to comment on your post next week. I have this to add today:

----------------

We all attempt, if the drive is in us, not to only understand, but also influence the leaders that work for us. In that respect, as a nation state, country, or society of peoples, our eventual goal must be more than just life itself.

This vessel we call life, this planet of us, this body of soles nearest our abode, is far too all consuming for any one master or group of masters to guide or even control by themselves. In this, every one among us should strive to add their difference. But none should be so bold not to lose track of what the world is here for; enjoying and living the time we have.

If lucky, some make it up several decks on our ship and even see the captain's view on occasion. If even more fortunate, he might have a word with the mind that is the wheel. It isn't always what we want to hear:

---------------

this life is so large our cargo so great
we trust you know how to go

Of course say he with clarity in sight
from my direction my assistants do know

with blank map in hand he makes his plan
and tugs with a tear then a bow

later, admits he, I must swear to thee
the land HO we seek, must still grow

----------------

So, my ORO that shines as gold, after the trip perhaps our experience will be a recount of a journey that was maped along the way. No matter the outcome, no matter the path taken we are all just people on the river of life.

As the "NewGuy" said of the one deemed more knowing in my story of the Country Club Bar #45944---

--- He's Right, Ya Know!"----------

(Smile)
TrailGuide

beestingJourneyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!#4725102/02/01; 12:59:34

A Derogatory Nickname for "fiat"!

Here are a few:
1. Mock Money.
2. Real Wealth Busters.
3. Unintangible Trade Ables.

But really, I think the word "Fiat" itself is an intentional misspelling of Counter"feit"===="Fiat"....only a poor speller(Me) would pick up on that......beesting.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, WOW! Did you ever miss my point!#4725202/02/01; 13:00:31

Again: I believe Gold is Wealth and Fiat Currency is Power.

We both agree that gold is wealth. Fiat currency is in my mind a definition of power. I am forced by law to accept it in payment. Those in power "create" it out of thin air, and use everything in my country (myself included) as collateral. Its very existence robs me of purchasing power through inflation. I am forced to either spend or risk (i.e. invest) this fiat currency to just keep up with inflation. The fiat currency prevents people from the guaranteed accumulation of wealth. Gold provides people the opportunity to secure wealth over the long term.

auspecTrail Guide#4725302/02/01; 13:32:58

This is a brightly lit path we now follow, thank you.
sstinsJourneyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!#4725402/02/01; 13:55:57

Confetti

or

Confiatti

auspecJourneyman#4725502/02/01; 14:00:27

A Derogatory name For Fiat?

Fiat $pyder! Oh what a web we weave, when first we practice to deceive. Some are getting downright good at it after all this practice. All these contests- next thing you know thery'll be a lottery here?
PandagoldSlatt#4725602/02/01; 14:02:35

I give up. I know what you are trying to say Sir Slatt, it is just a strange way to put it. Your argument put in the way you set out argues against itself. In one breath you tell me that fiat money is power, and then you say that having it robs you of power.

The people who force it on you have the power over you. (they also have the gold, that gives them the power to dish up the fiat money to you - thereby robbing you of power. While they hold the gold, they can dish out dog poo to you, putting it crudely. (Theoretically dog poo as a fertilizer could be more valuable than fiat that had become worthless through hyperinflation)

I feel sure this is what you are trying to say (I hope)

Phew! If this don't work, can someone else explain.

Wishing you well

ChristopherJourneyman- contest entry#4725702/02/01; 14:03:16

American Rupee
Western Omelet
U.S. Duller
The Unreale
The Cantinental
The Lower G.I. Bill

WaterboySlingshot and Slatt - natural gas#4725802/02/01; 14:11:55

Hello to all. This is my first post here, although I have been lurking for some time.

There are not too many AU words left, except for AUsome, which seems a little overwhelming considering my very limited expertise in financial subjects, in comparison with the competence and knowledge of others that post here. So as a handle I chose a name which better represents the level of postings that I might make.

Slingshot, we do not "make" hydrogen, but rather separate the hydrogen from the carbon using methane as a feedstock in a device known as a reformer. This how virtually all commercial hydrogen is produced, and is further the intended method of producing hydrogen for fuel cell operation. You may have noticed that natural gas (methane) supplies are just a little tight, as judged by the recent price escallation. You may also have read of plans to produce more than 300 new natural gas fired power plants in the near (as fast as we can) future. You may also have read that we are drilling like mad in the lower 48 states, and in the western Canadian sedementary basin, but very little additional gas is being produced. Additional gas IS being found, but mostly in smaller wells, while older wells are depleting rapidly. We are mostly running in place.

There are significant natural gas sources available to North America, but development is several years away.

Electricity is the current problem with the grasshoppers, but natural gas will be next, and this will get to the ants as well.

Meanwhile, where is the natural gas coming from to fuel the new natural gas fired generators, and where is the natural gas coming from to make the hydrogen to power the new fuel cell vehicles?

Waterboy

slingshotStocks, Lies and Ticker Tape#4725902/02/01; 14:21:11

msg 47248

Thank you for your explaination of natural gas. See! You learn something new everyday.
Slingshot

R Powell Fiat =#4726002/02/01; 14:27:00

financially flamable fibers frequently + frivolously fabricated for further fleecing from the foolishly frolicking flock. Any price for length of definition?
Rich

slingshotWaterboy#4726102/02/01; 14:40:10

Welcome Aboard! Thank you for your insight into natural gas. Ants have to cover all the bases you know or no one else will. This is a great forum!
Slingshot

Artie FarkleJourneyman #47237#4726202/02/01; 14:49:03

FIAT = PLAYDOUGH
R PowellJMB and Beesting#4726302/02/01; 14:50:57

Attention G-E forum visitors

Concerning the gold contract stopper (47216) or the identity of Goldman's client, perhaps someone might ask at G-E forum. They seem to have some inside brokeragehouse knowledge. Beesting, (47226) I thought the same when I read JMB's "hat trick" report.
Buffet was able to accumulate 89 million ounces of silver over many months in the summer and fall of 1997 before a lawsuit was filed against Pilbro (his broker) which forced him to reveal himself. Even without a name, the stopping rather than position offsetting bears watching. I hope whoever it is has lots of storage space and deep, deep pockets!
Rhody, thanks for the lease rate analysis.
Rich

Broken TeeJourneyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!#4726402/02/01; 14:52:43

Bogus Bucks
JourneymanOnly 3 @Gandalph the White#4726502/02/01; 14:56:16

Yur right, Wiz!! I don't know what the attendance was, but we probably must conclude A. The Tampa PD NEEDS a test run, B. few Super Bowl fans are wanted, or C. wanted criminals were working during the Super Bowl, or . . .

By the way, looks like those gray clouds settled on Wall Street!

Regards,
Journeyman

FarfelCOT report on GOLD, today#4726602/02/01; 15:00:07

Commercials are still heavily long gold (approx. 55,000 contracts)

Small specs are still extremely short (approx. 64,000 contracts)

I cannot remember the last time the big commercials stayed long gold for this duration of time.

Thanks

F*

slingshotFiat contest#4726702/02/01; 15:10:40

Fiatrasize. The destruction of ones personal wealth by the accumulation of F.R.N.'s or other promisary note not backed by physical gold or silver.

Fiatra - noun.
Slingshot

OROJourneyman - fiat derogation contest#4726802/02/01; 15:13:46

I propose

"the products of the bulls' stampede"

either in name or in reference.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, a clarification#4726902/02/01; 15:14:51

Fiat currency is a financial instrument used by the powerful to deny wealth accumulation between generations of the powerless.

This concludes yet another post to you Panda in which neither condescension nor sarcasm was applied in response to your writings. Perhaps someday you will see fit to extend the courtesy?

JourneymanKeep 'em warm too! @-DaveC msg#: 47237#4727002/02/01; 15:30:55

Hi DaveC!

Yep, that's definitely a friendly amendment!

"How about someting on the order of "taking a few samples" and then "laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals?" -DaveC msg#: 47237 [Re: Journeyman #47231]

Black Blade pointed out the caribou huddle around the Alaska pipe-line to keep warm, after all! Do they have to heat a NG gas-line too??

If so, how about:

"Taking a few samples and then laproscopically removing the gas from the underground gas pockets while petting and feeding the animals <and helping them keep warm>." ;)

Regards,
Journeyman

PandagoldSLATT#4727102/02/01; 15:32:59

So??? Isn't that what I have been saying, Fiat is a tool (just one) of those WITH the POWER, to rob you of POWER,

Fiat is NOT the power, merely a tool. Having a truck full of
Deutschmarks during the German depression would not have given you power, so how can you call it power. It is merely one tool of those with power. Another is media, do you need me to go on?

I am trying to be as sweet as I can to you - do you need me to give you a kiss? Sorry,but I am not into that sort of thing.



Now can we quit on this

OROTrail guide - something to look forward to#4727202/02/01; 15:34:28

Thank you for your comments and the intended commentary on the political aspects.

Also, I very much appreciate your continued engagement with us forum habitues, despite the many frappe's and mud slingers. I know that for some, it takes an effort to ignore people addressing "you" directly. (As my mom, and later my wife have told me, I don't have that problem.)

Thanks

Randy (@ The Tower)ORO (#: 47214), thanks again for doing the yeoman's work which has become your hallmark#4727302/02/01; 15:51:47

I believe I shall add this good overview (along with some helpful words that have been collecting over past months) to the monetary discussion found in the Hall.

Your analysis is remarkable, though you still seem to be oversensitive (very bad choice of word, perhaps "overskeptical to the possibility for progress") to the fact that we find ourselves living in an imperfect world. And yet here we are, warts and all, and look how far we've come!

Even this (our current one) worst of all conditions -- the patchwork fiat dollar system following the inevitable 1971 default on the gold exchange standard -- functioned (albeit with much international assistance/cooperation/political will) for three decades. And yet, the exorbitant privilege remained for U.S. to the detriment of others. No one is looking for perfection at the next stage of the game, just a more level playing field...again, warts and all. No room for optimism?

As I look to close this, please allow me the courtesy of utilizing one of your comments completely out of your intended context to make a small point that might let some find a new appreciation for decisions regarding wealth and currency. From a line in your post:

"mark to market regimes ... purchase and sale are acts of disagreement with the market price. A buyer of a security believes it is undervalued, a seller believes it is undervalued."

Stated as such, this reopens the old discussion of profit and motive. Are decisions made (and life made better thereby) in the quest to capture shares of "price"? In the above example, we could also say that each side believes them self to be getting an advantage from the trade that would not exist without the trade...hence, the trade occurs...to secure ownership of something that is needed more than what was offered. Otherwise, one side would balk, and keep their original position, whether it be an item, currency, a service, gold, etc.

When looking to buy and sell gold versus dollars, moreso than being guided by the motive to make a score in dollar profits, some bright thinkers living in the "here and now" with a mind for "tomorrow" buy gold at every turn for the security advantage not found in the paper dollars representing the equal market price.

As a market participant, when we sell our dollars for gold instead, we trade for this advantage, today. What comes tomorrow, if our thoughts have served us well, is icing on the cake. Lots of icing!

got advantage?

CoBra(too)Parlez vous ecomomese? sil vous plait!#4727402/02/01; 15:57:04

Or as Bloomberg puts it into plain English - another language I seem to have difficulty to understand - : The U.S economy added three times as many jobs as expected last month as health care, mortgage (!) banks and builders stepped up hiring, suggesting the service companies are still growing as manufacturing slides. While it seems understandable to me, that the lenders care for your health and the mint condition of your mortgaged home to have you forever indebted, I'm at a loss as to why the jobless rate rose to 4,2% from 4% in the same time.
Is it the same B(o.L.)S (Bureau of Labour Stats)adding up the CPI, WPI numbers, sans volatile components, which may add only to confusion, though keeping constipation at bay hurray, no wage/price inflation. And I don't even want to go into the two measures mentioned for loss of consumer confidence, since they're more than clear and I might be adding a few. But, then I fear I'd write throughout the night.
And how about bias if you read the press tonight. First week in the year to see SM's end slightly lower.
Well, I would have expected a hell of rally, carrying the markets to new all time highs, as in all's well in consumers paradise, as some say paradigm, hmmm!
What in hell, else would one expect after an unprecedented 100 bp's drop in interest rates in mere 4 weeks? - Not this kind of virtual hangover, for sure. Though, all of that economese is clearly explained by the boss of the FED, as a typical "V"-shaped outlook on same, arguing in antuique, oblique greenspeak, that, due to productivity the landing will be happily - in oblivity!
Which brings me to Journey Man's Fiat-$ (
or FRN - a Function of Regression towards NIL- as any other fiat), by description FIAT = FIASCO, depending on the relative timeline as an utility of futility.
X'cuse my ramblings - though utilise, with some surprise the value fiat still holds ... and exchange it for gold's -timeless value of old. - True! cb2

Randy (@ The Tower)Small, bite-sized picture#4727502/02/01; 16:11:04

http://ichart.yahoo.com/t?s=^IXIC

Worth 1,000 words. The business cycle will likely suffer well before "small dollars" begin to measure these markets larger.

Choose your concept of value wisely.

TrurlFiat contest#4727602/02/01; 16:38:57

Taking a page from American history, I have long used the phrase 'legal tenders' in describing our money. This was used as a disparaging term during the US civil war when referencing the then new unconvertable greenback.

remember -- those who don't know history, are doomed to hear it repeated...

HenriThe Joy of "Giving" and learning how to "Receive" as well #4727702/02/01; 17:11:10

There once was a man who through no fault of his own found himself in such dire financial straits that he could not even feed his family. All the village folk became aware of his plight and offered help in abundance. But the man steadfastly and stubbornly refused any and all acts of charity. He said he would never be bheholding to any man while he lived and breathed. Eventually, out of grave concern for the other family members, some but small children, the village folk devised a means whereby work was provided for the man by which he could be paid and so begin to make his way out of his desparate situation. Much later the man would boast of the merits of hard work, self-reliance'self-respect and so-on to such an extent that in the end very few of the village folk who actually knew what had occurred could abide his company. Many wondered privately if any good had actually been done save keep the children from starving. Frequently he would be found, after a bout of drinking to his own prowess, soundly thrashed and bleeding by a band of unknown assailants. Mysteriously, no-one among the village folk ever actually witnessed such an event so as to identify the perpetrators.

This past Christmas season I received an unexpected holiday gift from a friend. The most beautiful gifts are those that are unanticipated. It caused me much consternation in that I had not even considered this person, a dear friend, as someone to whom I would have thought to give a gift. What to do! Should I run out and purchase something belatedly to return the sentiment? Even the thought of doing this somehow seemed to degrade the beauty of the gift I had received. I became a bit angry. How dare this person cause me all this moral turpitude! Isn't there some kind of protocol to gift giving that prevents such distress to those that receive them! Then I saw myself. When I find myself getting upset I always try watch myself quietly and objectively from a place other than the world of mainstream worldly interaction. I do not judge myself usually...just observe. This time I truly did not like what I saw. I realized, in that space between myself, that there is in fact an etiquette in the manner in which to graciously "receive" a gift. One should absolutely acknowlege the giver...but not immediately return the gift lest he diminish the joy of the person who did the giving. A simple "thank you" will suffice.

A true gift, the ones that really leave you flabbergasted, are not given with the intention of getting something in return. And so I at once learned not only how to properly "receive" a gift but also what "giving" was about as well. Of course I put this person on my "suprise" gift list for a time in the future when I could enjoy the act of giving as well...but more importantly, I began to make a list of people who I wanted to drop the gift bomb on...just for the joy of it and to see if it caused the same reaction in them as happened to me. There were of course those who I knew would not appreciate the simple beauty of it. Then there were those that I thought might. It turned out to be a list of some very dear old friends that I had not seen or heard from in a long while. Those whom I hold out as examples hope for what humanity should be all about.

How many of us (and I include myself) have closed ourselves to the idea that help is something that we can just graciously accept as a gift. What protocol exists that says we must earn or repay our way in this world even when we desparately need help. What quality of humanity insists that we never acknowlege that we even need help...that we must muddle on alone by our own devices to get by. Must we always suspiciously look every gift horse in the mouth?

I look at the writings of "Another" and "FOA" as simple gifts given for the joy of sharing their knowlege or insight without the expectation of return. I also perceive that they enjoy the element of interaction and the opportunity to understand how they can make their message clearer. "Trail Guide" and "Another"...thank you. Should your scenario unfold as it seems to be doing albeit on an indeterminate schedule, I am certain we will come to a fuller understanding by reading your posts in retrospect.

So many gifts await us if we could only acknowlege them for what they are and not question their appearence. When we are most in need of comfort...after great tragedy...or just from being flat worn out with the struggle of life...when we cannot see our way clear out of a very difficult situation, what is it that prevents us from making that "leap of faith" that separates us from those who would help us. Consider the man who refuses outright charity. How like him we are. Why must we always make it so difficult to receive help directly. Gifts in abundance await us if we could but drop the pretense of trying to be so damned self-sufficient. We are not sufficient unto ourselves. We are nothing without others to interact with.

God, Jesus, the Great Spirit (or whatever your specific affiliation) want to help us but there is a barrier that they cannot penetrate to offer their guidance and wisdom. That barrier is erected by us. Like the village folk in the story above, it is not that they would not help us in our hour of need, but it is us that will not allow them to. I am certain that by now I am, for one, well advanced on their list of people who are beyond hope of ever seeing what is happening around them. Here is the suprising thing. They are not allowed to help until things are really really desparate unless we can put aside our pride and just ask for help. It is like a door that we can only open from our side. Try this simple test. Next time the world chews you up and spits you out...try...just try and ask for help from above. Then just wait and see what happens. Be attentive, the answers are revealed subtly. Indeed, why even wait until the world beats us up before asking for divine guidance outright? Is it really the world doing this to us? Maybe it is just Someone trying to get our attention?

Will God really be angry if we ask for His help without trying to solve our own problems first? Isn't this what got us thrown out of the "Garden of Eden" in the first place? Trying to do for ourselves? We were banished to eternal toil for this. Will He let us back in if we just drop the pretense? Perhaps one at a time?

HenriFiat contest#4727802/02/01; 17:22:31

What is wrong with just leaving it as fiat? Its a four letter word beginning with "f" which when spoken with a derogatory intonation perfectly expresses what it is all about.
lamprey_65It's no coincidence, folks#4727902/02/01; 17:25:40

http://www.bookmarkusa.com/goldweekly.jpg

Gold was stopped in its tracks right at the downtrendline... check the link above.

Compression continues.

The breakout from this pattern, whether up or down, will be violent.

Mr GreshamHenri#4728002/02/01; 17:26:32

Thank you.
TopazWaterboy (02/02/01; 14:11:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47258)#4728102/02/01; 17:32:23

Hello and welcome Waterboy,
I thought I'd grab your attention early ie: while you are still back here with the Jaffa-throwers, as your first post indicates you are destined to move to the front of the hall in quick time.
With regard to "H", is it feasable to produce same on a small scale ie: ehough to power a "stand-alone" domestic fuel-cell?

Mr GreshamJourneyman#4728202/02/01; 17:37:29

Having read a few of the contributions below, I'm not thinking of new names for Fiat, but, with recent memory of puppies and kittens added to households, I think you could say that its users have been "Paper Trained". (And something related to "House Broken" might follow from that.)

Still nap-groggy, so I can't quite reach that Italian derogatory acronym for Fiat cars, that goes something like "Fix-a It-a All-a Time-a".

(Sorry, I really LOVE Italian, and I envy you, DaveC, living there! I hope I haven't offended any Sicilians, having survived them in junior high in N.J.)

JavaManAll...#4728302/02/01; 17:38:39

ORO in your msg#: 47272 You said: "I know that for some, it takes an effort to ignore people addressing "you" directly."

And you are so right. Perhaps a little support on that line of thinking is in order, as well as in response to what we have been seeing all to much of since Inauguration day if not before.

From the book of Proverbs, chapter 26, v3-v5:

3. A whip for the horse, a bridle for the ass,
And a rod for the fool's back.

4. Answer not a fool according to his folly,
Lest thou also be like unto him.

5. Answer a fool according to his folly,
Lest he be wise in his own conceit.

The point of v.3 is that you cannot reason with a fool: v.4 gives the reason. If you answer not according to his folly, he will think he is wise like yourself. If you do answer him according to his folly, he will think you are a fool like he is. These are finely stated facts, not commands.

JavaMan: In other words, it is a lose-lose proposition, you cannot argue with fool and expect to win. Gosh, I love that Companion Bible! And if I may be so bold as to offer an application of such words of wisdom, it is these: That's what the scroll bar on the right edge of your browser is for!


CoBra(too) your msg#: 47274...

"Which brings me to Journey Man's Fiat-$ (or FRN - a Function of Regression towards NIL- as any other fiat), by description FIAT = FIASCO, depending on the relative timeline as an utility of futility. X'cuse my ramblings - though utilise, with some surprise the value fiat still holds ... and exchange it for gold's -timeless value of old. - True! cb2 "

There have been many creative suggestions in response to Sir Journeyman's call to contest, but surely, your's takes the prize.

Hmmm, so Journeyman, is this a "democratic" contest, the winner declared by the majority vote?
Let's have at the "official" rules of the contest. Inquiring minds want to know.


And Sir Randy, your msg#: 47275...yes, a picture is worth a thousand words and billions of dollars, no?

Sir Henri! Your msg#: 47277...is Priceless...It brought tears to my eyes. No! More than that. It's the kind of message that should be forever honored by the forum to show that there is more to be valued than gold. Well... is there???!!! I say...yes! I submit this work to the Hall Of Fame. In addition, it should have a special place of prominence that reflects its appeal to humanity. Seek wisdom before fine gold and silver.

Randy (@ The Tower)Journeyman...fiat currency "contest". A great idea with great participation!#4728402/02/01; 17:39:49

My entry is perhaps too cumbersome to rival Keynes quip of "barbarous relic" for the gold standard, but here it is nonetheless.

Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man.

A device as useful as civilization itself, and every bit as problematic. A good substitute for tangible wealth? No. To be sure, it (fiat currency) is not. We seek to acquire gold as a precise parallel to the reason and degree we may seek to be self-reliant and independent in a civilized world.

Of civilization, we say that membership has its privileges, though we must exercise care, because dependence has its pitfalls.

In currency we see written the story of mankind. The chapter with gold appeals to all choosing to live an active and thoughtful life, not just riding the currents to "go hapless with the flow".

got balance?

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, I grow weary ....#4728502/02/01; 17:45:48

As gold is forever so is your condescension and sarcasm. At least I can count on that.
LeighFoolish Questions#4728602/02/01; 17:48:50

I've been cringing this afternoon with fear that my posts have been among those Trail Guide considers foolish! Please forgive me, TG, Randy, MK, or others if that's the case! I hope you'll realize that my questions are asked in ignorance, and not as challenges or insults. I'll try to stop asking so many, or at least stop asking you directly, and you can conveniently choose to bypass them if you choose.

DaveC, there's a chance our family may go to Sicily for a wedding this summer. Do you live near there?

lamprey_65Oil, Gold, and the Dollar...#4728702/02/01; 17:55:28

http://www.prudentbear.com/bearthoughts.htm

From today's Bear Thoughts...

"Oil rose $1.37 to $31.19 and a new high for the move after OPEC made more rumblings about cutting production again. Recall that the bulls told us that oil had topped out and that Uncle Al could feel free to print up all of the money he wanted to, and it would not be inflationary. Oops, wrong again. The CRB ended the week poised for a new high next week. A sharp breakout next week would confirm that inflationary pressures are accelerating. The only thing that will bring down commodities is for stocks and the economy to suddenly implode, which could certainly happen. Short of that, they're going to blastoff, which will probably cause the same result anyway. Gold fell $1.40. Lease rates began moving up slightly today, which is another confirmation
signal that something may be happening in gold soon. The pure gold HUI fell a touch. I'm probably not even going to bother with the XAU anymore. With PD in the index, it's not really worth much as an indicator. The dollar bounced a touch as the US dollar index rose half a percent. The euro fell back through 94 cents but found buyers at the Jan downtrend line that it took out yesterday. The dollar continues to be the key to the bubble. When it breaks hard, it's game over for stocks, and it will likely do it overnight so be aware of that."

JavaManLady Leigh !!!#4728802/02/01; 18:07:18

It is a common saying that "the only stupid question is the one that doesn't get asked".

I, for one, appreciate your penetrating observations. Keep 'em comin' kid.

CoBra(too)@ Henri - a great allegory! #4728902/02/01; 18:13:31

... and as I may feel the same way, we all - and to no avail - just don't want to accept the trail, so clearly outlined and defined by a friend of another, and we don't bother - to stall on the way and stray for the simple reason, that we have to replay, the kind of "treason" kids don't accept as a given concept!
... As boomers surmise - Nike should - get them to their paradise - without a "hike" and despite of walking in the shoes of giants - we arrogants are sulking about the diffuse dues - we've been stalking on air-cushioned shoes.
... Jogging? - to get to the end, before knowing the bend of our destiny - logging, the trend to reality!
- Only one has walked on water, some on hot air and bungee jumpers rely on the flexibility of rubbery morals - you see. Let's hope the eco "V" has a wee chance of a pedigree. - cb (too)

JourneymanDemocracy? @JavaMan, Randy#4729002/02/01; 18:18:10

Hi Java, & the teacher formerly known as TC,

I didn't really expect such a large response! But I had toyed with the idea of voting, however hadn't considered the logistics.

Suggestions?

Regards,
Journeyman

JavaManSir Journeyman...#4729102/02/01; 18:38:14

Har...The teacher formerly know as TC...I love it! Yet Sir Randy has much wisdom to share and I hope (am confident) he will continue to do so.

You said: "I didn't really expect such a large response"

Yes, certainly a better response than your effort to attract animosity from the dems and repubs re: your previous fiasco but, I say...it was your idea...call it as you see it.

Canuck@ Pandagold and SLaTT#4729202/02/01; 19:02:42

Hey boys, it's the weekend, how about playing a new record.
Randy (@ The Tower)Journeyman and company#4729302/02/01; 19:04:09

Again, let me put aside all notions that I am any resemblance to a "teacher" (I lack the skill) or that I provide any manner of "leadership" at this forum. On this latter element I rely solely upon the stated guidelines and our participants' good judgement to honor them and stay on topic as our only form of "leadership". Otherwise, were I to attempt to serve in such a role it would be inevitable that my efforts would prove equally ineffective. But worse, by stepping up to such a role I would lose all independence of action -- becoming a Gen. Kutuzov in this small Tolstoian tale in which we are caught between war and peace. Even now I find myself to be ensnared and somewhat limited by the collective will of the group.

On your "contest" and choice of selecting a winner, the voice of experience admits such work to be very demanding. I advise against it! The fun is in the participation.

Speaking of participation, I would like to take an honest poll from our regulars and lurkers...as many as possible. In a very brief commentary, please express your HONEST emotions and opinions regarding your reaction to the content of what I posted as my entry (msg#: 47284) to Journeyman's "contest".

Consider this to be akin to drilling a test hole to determine the nature of the strata upon which we may all gain insight into our underlying foundation of thought.

CanuckOff the cuff#4729402/02/01; 19:12:54

FIAT:

Financially Inadequate (and) Artificial Tender

(Wow! Just got home 15 minutes ago and only half a beer into the night!!)

Have a great week-end golden warriors!!!!

May the truth of your GOLD only surpass the wisdom of your thoughts.

Canuck.

HenriRandy - Comment#4729502/02/01; 19:18:47

future integrity of his fellow man.

You said:

"...Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

I really liked this part and thought it stood well on its own.

To the extent that one choses to believe in his fellow man, he can attribute value to the civilization's acknowledgement of value.

To those who know the essence of fiat, so they know how fragile our civilization has become.

beestingA Horrible Thought!#4729602/02/01; 19:19:56

This Post is Off Limits to Kalifornia Legislators!!

*This post is done without research, so it may not be completly accurate.
How did the U.S. Federal Government get so far in debt?
Well, I believe current National debt first started when the then President declared a National emergency.
He than somehow got a bill through the Congress and Senate that Authorized the Government to create "money" that didn't exist. The U.S. Treasury than issued emergency "bonds or notes", sold them thru the banking system and "Bingo"money was created.
How did they get anybody to buy the bonds?
Well they offered a higher rate of return compared to what other borrowers were paying and put a Government gaurantee on it.....over and over again until we have the present 6.5 trillion in debt system.

Now does anybody still reading see where I'm going with this? All the Governor of Kalifornia has to do is declare a statewide emergency due to the energy shortage(Many Thanks Sir Black Blade) have the Kalifornia treasury issue some type of "bonds" with a high rate of return which I believe he already did........and then pass emergency legislation authorizing the State of Kalifornia to operate the "STATE" budget on a deficit,,,and from now till doomsday the state goes further and further in debt because the Governor doesn't want to make the immediate "TAX" burden to great on the "Ants" of Kalifornia or they'll leave the state or rebel.

I hate to say this folks but if Kalifornia does this every state in the U.S. may attempt to do it to gain more revenue for their uncontrolable tax and spend ways.
This deficit spending may be already going on in some states, I don't know,,,,but up to this point I thought all states had to have an annual balanced budget.

Does everybody understand what Another/FOA, ORO, and others have been saying about all paper money systems? They all collapse at some point because of excess paper money creation. Now does it make sense to buy a little more physical Gold? Thanks for Reading....beesting.

AELoff a second cuff#4729702/02/01; 19:41:11

Canuck (02/02/01; 19:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 47294)
Off the cuff
FIAT: Financially Inadequate (and) Artificial Tender

......... Fiscally Irresponsible Artificial Tender?
......... Fiduciarily Insane Accendible Tinder?
......... (back to lurking and sipping whiskey) .......

beestingFollow up to post # 47292#4729802/02/01; 19:43:13

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010202/ts/power_woes.html

Kalifornia just created 10 billion dollars!...beesting.
EconoclastJust warming my feet by the fire...#4729902/02/01; 19:50:18

Journeyman--
How about "wallet paper". Otherwise, I like playdough--easy to convey the silliness to the masses.
Randy--
In regards to your post, I agree wholeheartedly- Gold=Freedom.
TG--
Thank you for cooling off.
To All--
Reading through last week...Jeez! It seems to have settled down but there are still remnants of the bickering. I have very little to say with all the great discussion that usually goes on here. I just try to digest. When it degenerates like it did, especially personal attacks on truly great minds who are freely giving of their time and effort, I have even less to say.
Paying a small commission for free, timeless wealth! Do it while you still can!
Back to lurking...

beestingAnother Follow up to post 47292.#4730002/02/01; 19:57:45

The world currency charts all gained strength today.
Why?
Because the U.S. dollar just got inflated by 10 billion Kalifornia dollars....events unfolding before our eyes if we know how to interpret them....beesting.

SHIFTYThe Austrian face of the EUROS#4730102/02/01; 20:01:26

http://www.austrian-mint.com/e/euromuenz.html

Is this what the EURO looks like?


$hifty

JourneymanFlawed measurement device @Randy, ALL#4730202/02/01; 20:07:35

Hi again Sir Randy,

Didn't intend to put a trip on you. Didn't mean you had to necessarily be THE teacher, we're all part teacher part student aren't we?

My reaction to the rest of your post, specifically that:

"Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human
civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

I don't think a con-game forced on our ancestors by fraud is a good measure of human civilization (which word derives from "living in 'cities'").

Further, it seems to me, it isn't a very good idea to measure man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man by using such an involuntary and flawed indiscriminate construct, originally designed by the banking insiders to rip the rest of us off, as the ruler for measuring integrity.

Further still, blind faith in ALL our fellow men is often a serious mistake -- for both sides -- as I think you may have confessed in your reluctance to be teacher.

Independence with judicious trust of only a few and only when necessary, is in my opinion, better and safer for all concerned. Else the substrate for growth of "moral hazard" has been liberally spread.

Regards,
Journeyman

Waterboy@Topaz#4730302/02/01; 20:16:36

http://www.plugpower.con/home.cfm

Thanks for welcome.

Plug power is developing fuel cells for domestic applications. These units will supplly electrical power for homes, using natural gas or propane as the fuel. Read all about them at the link above. Ready in two years, or so they say.

FCEL Energy is developing larger units for commercial stationary applications. Web site easily found with a search.

Ballard Power is leader in units for mobile applications.

Hope this helps.

Waterboy

Waterboyoops link wrong#4730402/02/01; 20:20:04

http://www.plugpower.com/home.cfm

com not con
RAPJourneyman # 47237 Contest with no Prize!#4730502/02/01; 20:36:13

FIAT.COM
Chris PowellLatest dispatch from GATA Chairman Murphy's South Africa tour#4730602/02/01; 20:38:26

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/638

More good meetings, and a great story
in the Durban Daily News.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/638

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ETRandy#4730702/02/01; 20:39:49

Hey Randy - thanks for all you do around here. It is appreciated.

As regarding your call for comments - I would like to disagree with a portion of your assessment.

You wrote;

"My entry is perhaps too cumbersome to rival Keynes quip of "barbarous relic" for the gold standard, but here it is
nonetheless.

"Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the
embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man."

Here is where we disagree. Fiat or debt currency is the embodiment of man's willingness to take advantage of other's good nature. Men allow this franchise because they don't know any better or are forced into this situation by law, or both. It is a political contrivance for gain by the holders of the franchise. It is morally dishonest, regardless of the so-called "benefits" attributed to its existence.

"A device as useful as civilization itself, and every bit as problematic. A good substitute for tangible wealth? No.
To be sure, it (fiat currency) is not. We seek to acquire gold as a precise parallel to the reason and degree we may
seek to be self-reliant and independent in a civilized world."

Yes, but I hope you are not making the assumption that fiat currency and civilization are joined at the hip. I am sure we will find that civilization can and will prosper without the benefit of this contrivance.

"Of civilization, we say that membership has its privileges, though we must exercise care, because dependence has
its pitfalls.

"In currency we see written the story of mankind. The chapter with gold appeals to all choosing to live an active
and thoughtful life, not just riding the currents to "go hapless with the flow".

"got balance?"

I applaud your stance concerning holding physical gold as a wealth asset and money. However, I disagree with the notion that fiat currencies "must" exist for the good of mankind, etc. They are nothing more than a legalized racket that we have been led to believe is either "good for us" or "unavoidable". We, as a society or civilization, have not yet grown weary enough to shed these chains. I'm afraid if we don't, we will go the way of other societies which embraced fiat currencies and now, no longer exist. Gold will not guarantee the survival of a society. Only man's desire to benefit from mutual cooperation will fill the bill.

got cooperation?

ETAEL#4730802/02/01; 20:59:48

Hey AEL - good to see you back!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeCanuck , Pandagold#4730902/02/01; 21:26:48

Canuck: I will take your advice, so down a few for me!

Panda: You are a good joust! May we begin next week differently? I wish you a delightful weekend.

SHIFTYJourneyman's no prize contest#4731002/02/01; 21:32:14

Trash Cash


$hifty

Peter AsherRandy, ET#4731102/02/01; 22:01:55

Per Randy's >>> please express your HONEST emotions and opinions regarding your reaction to the content of what I posted as my entry (msg#: 47284) to Journeyman's "contest"<<<.

Gee, Randy. Who'd'a thought that twelve hours later we would totally agree on something
Re your >>>Our system of fiat currency is, for good or ill, a product indistinct from the culmination of human civilization--the embodiment of man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man.<<<<

You may not recall that in discussing this last year I mentioned Dun & Bradstreet's motto "Credit, Man's Confidence in Man." I have called fiat, "production chits", "entitlement chits", "ledger entries" and "rights to production." Your "man's confidence in the future integrity of his fellow man" perfectly describes the expectancy that having produced something of specified value, or having made a commitment to deliver that in the future, one can count on receiving equal value in kind from another member of society.

It is the absence of this confidence and/or the validity of it, that creates the need for Gold to verify the bond.

ET: I see the truth in what you say in the form of the following translation:

You said >>>Fiat or debt currency is the embodiment of man's willingness to take
advantage of other's good nature. Men allow this franchise because they don't know any better or
are forced into this situation by law, or both. It is a political contrivance for gain by the holders
of the franchise. It is morally dishonest, regardless of the so-called "benefits" attributed to its
existence.<<<

How about, ----Fiat or debt currency permits ‘GOVERNMENTS and those of ill intent' to take advantage of other's good nature. ----- It becomes a vehicle for the morally dishonest which leads to the destruction of the benefits created by it's existence.

It is not the ‘use' of fiat that is the problem. It is the ‘abuse' of it. Only (tax) free-gold can offset the susceptibility of "ledger entry money" to having its redemption value altered. Only in a totally honest, ethical world, would gold cease to be needed as a monetary anchor point for unredeemed value to be retained.

BTW I like the "Legal Tinder" entry!

tedwBlast from the past#4731202/02/01; 22:09:07

http://www.usagold.com

Harry Browne circa 1974:


During recent years , a great many people have argued over golds future role in the monetary systems of the world. An underlying assumption of these arguments is that the outcome will determine the future of gold. If governments manage to "demonetize" gold, it will turnout to be a poor investment.

But as I pointed out at the beginning of this chapter,golds role in proposed monetary systems will determine the future of those systems---not the future of gold.

ETPeter#4731302/02/01; 22:41:21

Hey Peter - good to chat again. You wrote in part;

"How about, ----Fiat or debt currency permits ‘GOVERNMENTS and those of ill intent' to take advantage of other's
good nature. ----- It becomes a vehicle for the morally dishonest which leads to the destruction of the benefits created by
it's existence."

There are no benefits created by its existence except to those that create it. It would seem hard to go wrong with the ability to create money at will, but I think we're going to see just how wrong things can go.

"It is not the ‘use' of fiat that is the problem. It is the ‘abuse' of it."

I don't agree partner. Its use as "money" is the problem. The term "money" implies a standard of value, a medium of exchange. Why do you want to substitute a tangible standard of value for one that is not if you have a choice? Isn't the standard itself the important item?

Peter AsherET#4731402/02/01; 23:35:55

Thanks for the immediate response. I will answer as my next post but not tonight. I'm out of "Midnight Oil" to burn and weekends are workdays right now as we are in planning stages for 2nd homes.
Hi-HatJourneyman________Con test#473152/3/2001; 3:25:43

Debts R US
Black BladeRe; Lady Leigh and journeyman contest#473162/3/2001; 3:44:27

Lady Leigh msg. #47286,

Hi there me good Lady. Is that not the reason we all come here but to learn? We all come together here from all walks of life and from all socioeconomic backgrounds. Any question asked is not a foolish question, only the foolish don't ask questions. My personal philosophy is that if one does not learn at least one new thing per day, then that day has been wasted. Keep em comin’. Cheers!

- Black Blade


Journeyman msg. Contest - 47237,

Good to see you back in form with a contest. We refer to American gold as "Eagles", so how about American paper as "Seagulls." After all, unless one is on either coast, you can generally find "Seagulls" at the landfill with all the rest of the garbage. And not to mention they're hell on parked cars ;-)

Black BladeInteresting Article#473172/3/2001; 4:15:42

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/drakulich020401.html

The article is an interesting take on the markets, but I especially like these closing comments:

"And by the way for you GOLD BUGS that are still alive and kicking out there(are there any?). My work shows that the odds are now very high for a big upside acceleration in gold and gold stocks, SILVER TOO! Looks to me like gold made a FINAL secondary low just a week or so ago on Jan. 26 at the 262 level. If I'm correct it should be "lights out" to the upside, no California pun intended!"

There has been a sharp increase in the positive takes on gold and silver recently. Even major brokerages and investment banks are putting a positive spin on the PMs. Farfel gives us a another positive indicator with the COT numbers. I am starting to feel a bit more upbeat even though duck season is over.

- Black Blade

justamereBearTopaz 47281#473182/3/2001; 4:17:50

There seems to be 2 kinds of fuel cells. The PEM membrane and the ceramic. In the ceramic field, you might try Global of Calgary Alberta. They have prototypes of a small unit suitable for a car or a home. About 3 or 4 months ago they signed a contract with Enbridge (Natural gas suppliers) to market the unit as a home supply.

The conversion efficiency of an internal combustion engine is somewhere about 30%. Pem membrane units generally run about 50%, disregarding the heat. They use some extra parasite units, such as a blower to pressurize the gas, so they do not get quite as good a conversion rate as the ceramics, which does not need so much parasite equipment, and the ceramic conversion is about 55%. Once you start using the heat, the ratios on both go up to around 80%. The heat exchanger technology is bulky and a bit expensive for the automotive application, and the resultant high cost, does not justify its use at the lower gas prices.

However, what Global and Enbridge have done is say, well we will use the heat to heat water, and heat your home. The heat can also be easily used for air conditioning. So, in fact, they, without much capital cost, have made for all but a few months of the year, extremely high use of the heat. The total cost for energy for a household is very good. Global uses a ceramic plate technology.

Others, notably Siemans-Westinghouse, have a prototype Commercial volume unit out that uses ceramic tubes. They expect to be in production in less than 2 years, at a capital cost in the range of $2,000 per kilowatt. (currently it is much higher.) Again, disregarding heat, they are in the 50 - 55% conversion efficiency range.

There is an Aussie bunch, who I can't recall the name of at the moment, who are a long way down the road as well. For unknown reasons, (to me) the commercial test prototypes are located in Holland, and are relatively small, and so far, completely problem free. Mind you, with essentially no moving parts, that is to be expected.

Currently, pretty well all the units use natural gas type fuels, (eg also methane) which usually have a single carbon molecule surrounded by several hydrogens, and they strip out the carbon, and the unit creates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen to produce a byproduct of pure H2O.

Starting with a pure hydrogen fuel, you would have a saving in the stripping out carbon process, partly in equipment costs, and partly in efficiency. But pure hydrogen is a bit dodgy to work with, so if that application appears, it will be some time in the future.

Providing supplies of natural gas hold out, this is the wave of the future, because of the high conversion rates, and you can easily take your electrical generating facility right to the users site, so no transmission problems.

There is a good deal of information available, particularly on the internet, about this totally "new" field. There is also a email/internet publication called Hydrogen Mirror, published in Germany, which I have found to be good.

There is also a gigantic study going on by the Japanese, called the W E project, revolving around hydrogen. I suppose it stands for something like world energy.

Regards
j'Bear

justamereBearTopaz 47281#473192/3/2001; 4:17:51

There seems to be 2 kinds of fuel cells. The PEM membrane and the ceramic. In the ceramic field, you might try Global of Calgary Alberta. They have prototypes of a small unit suitable for a car or a home. About 3 or 4 months ago they signed a contract with Enbridge (Natural gas suppliers) to market the unit as a home supply.

The conversion efficiency of an internal combustion engine is somewhere about 30%. Pem membrane units generally run about 50%, disregarding the heat. They use some extra parasite units, such as a blower to pressurize the gas, so they do not get quite as good a conversion rate as the ceramics, which does not need so much parasite equipment, and the ceramic conversion is about 55%. Once you start using the heat, the ratios on both go up to around 80%. The heat exchanger technology is bulky and a bit expensive for the automotive application, and the resultant high cost, does not justify its use at the lower gas prices.

However, what Global and Enbridge have done is say, well we will use the heat to heat water, and heat your home. The heat can also be easily used for air conditioning. So, in fact, they, without much capital cost, have made for all but a few months of the year, extremely high use of the heat. The total cost for energy for a household is very good. Global uses a ceramic plate technology.

Others, notably Siemans-Westinghouse, have a prototype Commercial volume unit out that uses ceramic tubes. They expect to be in production in less than 2 years, at a capital cost in the range of $2,000 per kilowatt. (currently it is much higher.) Again, disregarding heat, they are in the 50 - 55% conversion efficiency range.

There is an Aussie bunch, who I can't recall the name of at the moment, who are a long way down the road as well. For unknown reasons, (to me) the commercial test prototypes are located in Holland, and are relatively small, and so far, completely problem free. Mind you, with essentially no moving parts, that is to be expected.

Currently, pretty well all the units use natural gas type fuels, (eg also methane) which usually have a single carbon molecule surrounded by several hydrogens, and they strip out the carbon, and the unit creates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen to produce a byproduct of pure H2O.

Starting with a pure hydrogen fuel, you would have a saving in the stripping out carbon process, partly in equipment costs, and partly in efficiency. But pure hydrogen is a bit dodgy to work with, so if that application appears, it will be some time in the future.

Providing supplies of natural gas hold out, this is the wave of the future, because of the high conversion rates, and you can easily take your electrical generating facility right to the users site, so no transmission problems.

There is a good deal of information available, particularly on the internet, about this totally "new" field. There is also a email/internet publication called Hydrogen Mirror, published in Germany, which I have found to be good.

There is also a gigantic study going on by the Japanese, called the W E project, revolving around hydrogen. I suppose it stands for something like world energy.

Regards
j'Bear

TopazWaterboy: Shifty.#473202/3/2001; 4:25:50

http://boutique.monnaiedeparis.fr/cgi-bin/mdp.storefront/EN/

Waterboy,
Thanks for that info - all seem reliant on NG, LPG - any other Tech on the horison? (if you have time)
Shifty,
Link above is to the French Mint, I think they are all going to mint a Euro - the Fremch (numismatic) effort is pretty exxie, even with the Tax taken off.
Just as an aside, I got a set of French Euros 2 yr's ago, a 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz, all Au, a 1oz Ag and a generic 1 euro coin. Design was similar to the 1/4 oz Au Euro (the one with 1/2 a face), except all the "e" simbols were the 11 member countries and their "cast in concrete" exchange rate. A fairly "busy" design however I hold great expectations for this set. (2000 sets only, and with a "19" date stamp) we'll see hey!

DaveCJourneyman - Selling the Artic Drilling Idea#473212/3/2001; 4:26:13

Although your first sales pitch would go over well here I think we would need something that the MTV crowd can relate too.

Since it's all about image, picture something like oil and gas guys working with polar bears and baby seals in the picture.

Then we need a catchy "sound bite" phrase.

"Making life good for you and them" or something the enviro crowd can relate to.

If I think of a better one I'll post it.

TopazjustamereBear #473222/3/2001; 4:42:02

Howdy j'bear,
Thanks for your 47318 AND 47319 <wink>, I've now got plenty of homework to do.
PS: enjoy your input greatly.

Peter AsherOK Journeyman, I can't resist#473232/3/2001; 4:50:48

Mad Money
Instant money
Issue Tissue

Black BladeRe: DaveC#473242/3/2001; 4:51:00

Hello Dave, it looks like you just shot down my new business plan. I was about to start a hunting guide service to the Arctic. I was going to charge high paying customers to boogie onto the tundra to club baby seals. I figure that there isn't any competition in this area yet and it is a "sport" that needs to be developed. Maybe if we "pet" and "feed" them first…. No matter how I try I think it's a tough sell. I guess I'll just have to wait until duck season opens. ;-)

- Black Blade

Black BladeU.S. Oil Soars Above $31 a Barrel #473252/3/2001; 5:04:20

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010202/bs/markets_energy_dc_1.html

By Andrew Mitchell
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices raced back above the $31 a barrel mark on Friday on forecasts of cold weather in the U.S Midcontinent, where crude stocks are at record lows. March crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange ended$1.37 a barrel higher at $31.19 a barrel, building on Thursday's rise of more than a dollar and taking gains in the last sessions to nine percent. The decisive upturn has pushed prices right back to the levels blamed for slowing U.S. economic growth last year, when NYMEX crude's average of $30.20 was its highest for 17 years. Producer cartel OPEC, whose mid-January deal to cut supply by five percent came into force from Thursday, has signaled its determination to keep prices high despite signs that high energy costs are hurting economic growth. U.S. oil supply remains tight with crude stocks across the U.S. less than three million barrels above 25-year lows struck last year, and at all-time lows in the Midcontinent. Private weather forecasts predicted below normal temperatures next week and much-below normal temperatures by next Friday over the central U.S, although the heating-oil dependent Northeast is expected to see mild weather in the next week. The cold forecasts helped pull U.S. heating oil -- which had fallen 30 percent since late November -- 4.3 cents higher to 82.14 a gallon.

Opec Keeps Grip On Supply

OPEC's early move to slice supply aimed to avoid being caught out by the threat that prices might slide when peak Northern Hemisphere winter consumption tails off. Supply figures released this week showing a six million barrel build in gasoline inventories and a sharp fall in gasoline demand signal the fallout from high energy prices and wider economic worries, analysts say. Record gasoline prices last summer, sky-high heating oil and gas bills this winter and the shock of California's power crisis have all played their part in taking U.S. consumer confidence to its lowest point in more than four years. While U.S. crude prices are still at the $30 a barrel level that Washington has said is unacceptable, a growing premium for U.S. crudes over other international oils means prices do not look so strong from the producers' point of view. OPEC's basket of crude oil is at $25 a barrel, right in the middle of the $22-28 range the group has agreed with importing nations it will target. OPEC is willing to defend prices further by cutting supply if its crude basket should fall below the $22 floor. ``We just haven't been able to take this market down,'' said Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas. ``Crude's been rangebound for the last week or so wondering which way to go but with some cold forecasts, the interest rate cut and obviously going to defend its price floor, we've now broken higher,'' he said. The impact of OPEC's supply curbs has been strengthened by a long period of lower-than-normal exports from Iraq that has taken a huge chunk out of supply to the 76 million barrels per day (bpd) world market. Iraq's efforts to persuade its oil lifters to pay an illegal surcharge on U.N.-sponsored exports mean it has exported barely 4O million barrels since December 1, around 90 million barrels less than under its normal export rates. Though Iraq has pledged to push exports back over two million barrels per day from 925,000 bpd in January Iraq's surcharge demand has made selling the crude difficult, Iraqi industry sources said on Friday.


Black Blade: The OPEC cuts kicked in a couple of days ago, and should show up in about a month in lower inventories. Iraq began to pick up production and OPEC has already stated that they would respond in kind. The same crowd of analysts who declared that oil would be at $5.00/bbl forever a couple of years ago, were recently saying that $30.00/bbl oil was not a possibility this year. Currently oil is at $31.19/bbl for NY sweet crude. It looks as if these guys are going to be late to the party again. Their superiors must cringe every time they come out with a price prediction.

Canuck@ AEL#473262/3/2001; 5:14:45

You ARE the man, long time no hear; last I believe was to the rescue of silver, yes?

May have had a vodka or three too many last night, have developed cranial crack around left temple. Hope the whiskey was good to you.

Take care.

Black BladeRepublican energy plan encourages Alaska drilling #473272/3/2001; 5:15:49

http://enn.com/news/wire-stories/2001/02/02022001/upi_anwr_41786.asp

Friday, February 2, 2001
By United Press International

Setting the stage for a battle over the future of U.S. energy policy, Senate Republicans are preparing to introduce a sweeping energy policy bill that would open a vast Alaskan wilderness preserve for oil exploration and offer billions of dollars worth of tax breaks to domestic gas and oil production companies. The bill, a draft copy of which was obtained by United Press International, includes provisions to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, streamline environmental reviews of new natural gas pipelines, explore increases in federal hydroelectric power production, and study the possibility of increasing reliance on nuclear power. The legislation also includes billions of dollars worth of tax incentives for oil and gas drilling and for improving the environmental performance of coal-fired power plants.

But Democrats are already drafting alternative proposals of their own, setting the stage for a reprise of bitter energy battles that Congress has fought before. The Senate bill is an updated version of legislation offered last year by Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Energy Committee Chairman Frank Murkowski. The bill died last year, but many of the provisions appeared in campaign proposals offered by then-candidate and now president, George W. Bush. In an apparent effort to address the electricity crisis in California, the bill grants the federal government new authority to site power lines, and eliminates 65-year-old restrictions on the ownership of power plants by foreign companies. The bill would establish a system of regional "reliability organizations" responsible for guaranteeing sufficient and consistent power flow in the regions they govern. The bill was drafted by Energy Committee staff members under the direction of Republican Staff Director Andrew Lundquist, who this week was named to lead a new White House task force on energy policy in the office of Vice President Dick Cheney. The appointment suggests an unusually close tie between the White House and Republicans in Congress on energy issues.

Black Blade: A good start, but they had better "fast track" this sucker through congress. Time is short and the economy is about to get hammered as never before. These higher energy costs have to be paid by some one, and that some one is ultimately the consumer. With fewer dollars to spend on consumer goods, the economy could be "toast" and George Dubya will inherit a legacy akin to Herbert Hoover. It was cheap energy after all that fueled the economic expansion and the Bull Market of recent years. That "cheap energy" is gone forever. If they want to salvage what is left, they had better work on getting more reliable energy sources together. It is time to "fish or cut bait!" I find that it is interesting that these politicians are actually discussing the merits of nuclear and coal. That was an unthinkable prospect only a few months ago. The situation is getting outta control as the western governors have found out.

Black BladeRig Counts are Up, But Still Not Enough#473282/3/2001; 5:22:15

Domestic Rig Count Rises by 22

HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States rose 22 to 1,138 this week, a report by an oilfield equipment company said Friday. Of the rigs running nationwide, 900 were exploring for gas, 237 were looking for oil and one was listed as miscellaneous, Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported.A year ago, the rig count was at 757. Baker Hughes has kept track of the count since 1944. The tally peaked at 4,530 on Dec. 28, 1981, during the height of the oil boom, but set several record lows in 1999, bottoming out at 488 on April 23, 1999. Of the major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas gained 19 rigs, California four and Louisiana two. New Mexico declined by five.

Black Blade: There is a "Rush" for rigs. However, when hydrocarbon prices cratered over the last few years, many rigs ended up in the scrap heaps and drill rig crews pursued other careers. There is no easy answer to this mess. US rig manufacturers either went belly-up, or into other businesses. This power crisis will be with us for some time. The potential for and oil crisis is beginning to enter the picture once again with OPEC finally getting some control over "cheating" by various members. Times are just beginning to get "Interesting."

Crossroadsretraction#473292/3/2001; 5:32:54

Peter Asher, I regret that my message caused alarm and I apologize for my insensitivity towards you. After re-reading, I see the errors in my ways. I failed to elaborate, which is one of the hazards of posting when at work. I was only encouraged by Randy's willingness to admit his inability to teach on a public forum. I for I could say exactly the same thing. Thats why I lurk. The rest of his note is between he and you. I realize that you probably thought that I was responding to the post as a whole and I assure you that I was not.

As for the "leadership" comment, well I was referring to MK and the fact that he would surround himself with people who had integrity. Sorry for the confusion.

Black BladeJanus Funds Fortunes#473302/3/2001; 5:33:27

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010202/ck.html

It looks as if the Mutual fund family of Janus Funds are headed into rough waters these days. The best performing fund family over the last several years and heavy investor in the "New Economy" is cutting 16% of its work force. I just read that the CEO has filed to sell a large chunk of his shares. This does not look good for the Wall Street pundits who continue to offer their "sage advice" of "buy the dips" and the equities markets look "poised to rise." We are in a recession IMO, and the signs are all around. The only problem with these "signs" is that no one on Wall Street can read.
Black BladeGovernors Discuss Solutions to Energy Crisis #473312/3/2001; 5:40:29

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/kpix/20010202/lo/governors_discuss_solutions_to_energy_crisis_1.html

By KPIX CBS News
California's power crisis is something many other parts of the nation could be facing. How to solve the crisis and how to keep it from spreading was key to some high-level meetings going on in Portland, Oregon today. Newly confirmed energy secretary Spence Abraham jumped head first into California's power fiasco this morning. Along with the governors of nine western states, Abraham attended an energy summit in Portland. He told the governors they could count on the Bush Administration for help in solving what he called a national problem. "We recognize that for us to have the kind of comprehensive energy plan that makes sure America does meet its energy security needs, we have to move forward on a bipartisan way and recognize we are all in it together," said Abraham. Just a day after signing a ten billion dollar package designed to ease his state's power problems, Governor Gray Davis was confident California will see better days ahead. "We have worked very hard to fix our problems," said Davis. "With the cooperation of our neighbors, we've made great progress." There was no doubt among the other governors in attendance that energy woes could spread quickly. "Today's it's California, tomorrow? It's your guess, but we ought to be working together to come up with a long-term solution" said Wyoming Governor Jim Gerhinger. Governors will also hear from a long list of experts, hoping to find a solution that will benefit everyone involved.

Black Blade: What isn't said here is that Kommissar Gray Davis was lambasted by the other governors for the problems heaped upon them because of the Grasshopper mentality in Kalifornia that led to much of this crisis in the west. He didn't look too happy while the other governors tore into him. The media, however, had only glossed over that aspect of the meeting.

TopazBlack Blade: All.#473322/3/2001; 5:43:50

BB,
I see the problem, your killer instinct has not been sated, even though every Duck within 50 sq miles of "Bladesville" (could there possibly be ANY left) quivers at the very mention of your name...... and I think you'd have Presidential patronage on the Seal deal.
All,
FYI - Having just visited the French Mint site (posted below) I am now able to inform all and sundry that it is:-
The year 4695 in Chinese
The year 6237 in Egyptian
The year 5761 in Hebrew
The year 2001 in English/Gregorian
The year 5120 in Mayan
The year 1421 in Muslim
The year 2545 in Buddhist.
Remember the song "In the year 2525" - well it probably WAS 2525.
The above was gleaned from an interesting "object d'art" paperweight at the Mint site - 30 Euro and it's yours!
Cool huh?

TopazJourneyman #473332/3/2001; 6:00:21

Thats it Journey!!
alt Barbaric relic = Ponzi Paperweight.

JavaManGood morning All...#473342/3/2001; 6:01:14

Last night I submitted Henri's msg#: 47277 (It is through giving that we receive...) to the Hall Of Fame in my msg#: 47283. As it was Friday evening, many of you may not have had an opportunity to read his post. I encourage everyone to check it out, and if you already saw it, then read it again.

I feel this post should reside in the HOF, not for any compelling ORO-ian* financial or econonic reasoning but, rather, because it compells us to examine our "internal" wealth...our "selves".

From my post: "Sir Henri! Your msg#: 47277...is Priceless...It brought tears to my eyes. No! More than that. It's the kind of message that should be forever honored by the forum to show that there is more to be valued than gold. Well... is there???!!! I say...yes! I submit this work to the Hall Of Fame. In addition, it should have a special place of prominence that reflects its appeal to humanity. Seek wisdom before fine gold and silver."

From Henri's post: "I look at the writings of "Another" and "FOA" as simple gifts given for the joy of sharing their knowlege or insight without the expectation of return. I also perceive that they enjoy the element of interaction and the opportunity to understand how they can make their message clearer. "Trail Guide" and "Another"...thank you. Should your scenario unfold as it seems to be doing albeit on an indeterminate schedule, I am certain we will come to a fuller understanding by reading your posts in retrospect."

Perhaps this answers the many questions that have been asked as to the motive for FOA's posting.


* a complimentary adjective by definition.

DaveCBlack Blade & Journeyman#473352/3/2001; 6:15:13

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/milhouse020501.html

How about "Alaska Drilling and Petting Zoo"?

BB, On your other post about quotes from GE, here's another from the link above. The subject is "Does More Money = More Energy?"

"There was, by the way, one time when more money did directly result in more energy. In China, during the late 1940s, the inflation rate got so high that paper money became the cheapest form of fuel (it was more cost-effective to burn paper money than to burn coal)."

Legal Tinder, Yikes!

dragonflyJourneyman Contest #473362/3/2001; 6:46:26

Fully Inflated Actuarial Tokens

How about GREENSTAMPS ??

Two images might come to mind for the folks at large.

1. The huge number of them that we used to have to collect to redeem for merchandise.

2. The possibility that with a bit of glue currency might second as postage.

Regards,
dragonfly

Black BladeIndia's gold, silver prices rise as supplies drop after quake#473372/3/2001; 6:47:50

Mumbai--Feb. 2--Reduced supplies on account of last week's massive earthquake in India's western state of Gujarat pushed up local gold and silver prices, traders said on Friday. Most of the country's gold imports go to Ahmedabad city, in Gujarat, before being distributed to other business centers.

Black Blade: Contrary to a lot of speculation that the quake would dampen gold and silver demand in India, PM supplies appear to be in great demand. The quake centered on a major distribution center, yet India is a large country with a large population, and PMs are desired throughout. Now that the distribution center has been leveled by a devastating earthquake, other channels will be sought. In the short term at least local prices should actually rise.

Well I'm off to get some R&R on the slopes for a couple of days with some friends from "gold country" and the "oil patch." Maybe I'll check in off and on over the weekend. So golden dreams all. I feel as though next week could be a golden one. Cheers!

dragonflyJourneyman Contest#473382/3/2001; 7:09:29

Now ya got me going :))

How about Spambinos ??

Conjuring up the image of Allen Greenspan shovelling up the offal from the killing floor and homogenizing it in a vat and feeding it to us in ever-smaller morsels of anti-nutrition that never satisfy the true biological hunger for real food. But then why let a good thing go to waste??

Regards,
dragonfly

Bascom ToadvineFuel Cell tecnology#473392/3/2001; 8:13:02

http://www.mhtx.com/

Manhatten Scientific is an offshoot from the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. It is promoting the NovArs system which is small scale fuel cell technology. They so far have a bicycle, cell phone, and now an electrolux vacuum cleaner. Trades on the OTCBB as MHTX.

Since most all fuel cell technology relies on some sort of catalyst...Platinum/palladium...I think this area of mining stocks could be of great future worth. A deposit has been discovered in northern Canada to rival those of the Russia.

Musk Ox Mining (MSK on CDN exchange) seems to be a good candidate for a very long term buy and hold. It is years from development but has great potential to be the buy of the Millenium.

Mr GreshamJavaMan: Fools#473402/3/2001; 8:30:51

And Buddha put it: "There is no companionship with a fool on the road to Enlightenment."

That leaves it pretty simple. You don't have to change someone. They're just on a different road than you are. You just have to be sure the road is wide enough to let you pass, or just stand aside and get out of their way.

I put in some time trying to save the world, until I unexpectedly found myself floundering just to keep my own head above water. "A man's gotta know his limits." (Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry?)

Peter AsherCrossroads#473412/3/2001; 8:38:53

Thanks for the clarification.

Posting from work.eh? There's the glitch in the productivity stats.

PeteMr Gresham (2/3/2001; 8:30:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 47340)#473422/3/2001; 8:50:35

http://laplaza.org/~paxton/menuof.htm

Your above post reminded me of this link, "No Time for Karma." I think you might find it interesting. I did!
Mr GreshamDragonfly#473432/3/2001; 8:55:44

I think you're on to something with the junk food analogy: cabinets and refrigerators full of unnourishing and unsatisfying manufactures...we've got Junk Bonds, Junk Yard Dogs, a dozen others I can't recall at the moment ("junk"s a pretty funny word when you say it a few times) so "Junk Bucks"?

(Your "Tokens" and "Greenstamps" are great!)

Simply MeJourneyman's Contest#473442/3/2001; 9:09:31

How 'bout:
Gov'mint IOU's
Bogus Bucks
Funny Money
Monopoly Money
IRS Homing Devices
U.S. Ruble
Fed-Rigged Paper
Wallpaper (Some might recognize the association with a "Paper-hanger" as someone who's spreading counterfeit or bad checks around town.)

I really like someone else's "PlayDough" and "Green Stamps" ideas, too.

simply

Mr GreshamDoug Noland -- Credit Bubble Bulletin#473452/3/2001; 9:10:33

http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm

"The overriding goal for the Credit Bubble Bulletin is to educate and inform as I attempt to document as best I can this historic period in financial and economic history. I am also committing myself to years of endeavor striving to ensure that the true story of this fateful boom and unavoidable bust is documented completely and accurately, and that facts are not obfuscated as times passes by. Let there be absolutely no doubt, great efforts will be expended to paint all of this in a much more palatable light. One need not look far to see how fragile truth can be, with Saddam Hussein presented as responsible for the early 1990's US recession, crony capitalism the culprit for the SE Asian collapse, and a freak occurrence of "The Perfect Storm" doing in the hard-luck Long-Term Capital Management. Some may likely go so far as to explain the boom as some variance of "the nineteen-nineties were in many ways the high tide of the Federal Reserve System." I hope to fight this revisionist history every step of the way. "

and, putting in a word for Keynes (a man of his times, though not for all seasons):
""If we are dealing with a closed system, so that there is only the condition of internal equilibrium to fulfill, an appropriate banking policy is always capable of preventing any serious disturbance to the status quo from developing at all…But when the condition of external equilibrium must also be fulfilled, then there will be no banking policy capable of avoiding disturbance to the internal system." John Maynard Keynes

No, in our times, we have Federal Reserve Bank presidents:

""(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert) McTeer concluded his speech by driving home the message that consumers do their part to keep the economic expansion going. He implored the audience: ‘Go out and buy something.’ Dow Jones News 2/2/01

"If we all join hands together and buy a new SUV, everything will be OK." Robert McTeer, Associated Press, 2/2/01

Mr GreshamPete#473462/3/2001; 9:26:03

Thanks. That's one of my strong interests, too. I'll read some.
LafisrapPrediction#473472/3/2001; 10:20:54

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey020401.html

The above link contains a detailed technical analysis of the POG. It also contains a short, simple, verifiable statement predicting near-term behavior of the POG: "I look for a surge in the bullion price to at least $320 by midyear with the target of $395 being achieved before the end of this year." The statement is difficult to misunderstand, and notice the exact words the writer chooses, in which he takes personal responsibility for his prediction "I . . .." This is how credibility is gained, or not. We have an event and a time frame. It is the same in all areas of human endeavor. Credibility is gained, or not, in the same way. It has always been.

As for technical analysis of the POG, I expect clever people to be capable of devising theories that explain most everything. History, analysis of current facts, details of the machinations surrounding the gold market, etc., all this helps me better understand gold. If POG does rise to $395 before the end of the year, perhaps it will be the beginning of the FOA/Another prediction that POG will rise to many thousands of dollars per ounce.

I sure do need POG to go to $30,000.00 !

Lafisrap

mhchuckJourneyman's Contest#473482/3/2001; 10:31:27

"Faux Dough": Is it not the chink in the armor of those that will inevitably be referred to as, 'The Powers That Were?'

Those that live by the sword; Die by the sword.

mhchuck

JavaManHello Mr. G...#473492/3/2001; 10:38:58

And Buddha was right. As a matter of fact, I think that phrase may be interpreted on several levels i.e. there is no companionship with the fool because one doesn't encounter a fool on the road to Enlightenment...unless they're going in the opposite direction.

Also, you said: "You don't have to change someone. They're just on a different road than you are."

Agreed, and that's good because one doesn't (read is not able to) change someone...people can only change themselves, and that, in rare instances.

And "...limits." = "limitations."...with teeth firmly clinched.

LafisrapOn Communication#473502/3/2001; 11:31:25

http://www.ninehundred.net/control/

In the Forward to "Rape of the Mind" (1956, World Publishing Co.), Joost A. M. Meerloo states: "One of the great Dutch authors, Multatuli, wrote a letter to his friend excusing himself because the letter was so long: he had not had time enough to write a shorter one. In this paradox he expressed part of the problem of all search for expression and communication. It takes a long time to express an idea in a precise and communicable way."
GenooBUSHIE SNUGGLES UP TO THE FREE MARKET#473512/3/2001; 11:42:27

htpp://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/03/national/03GOVS.html

Could it really be a sign of things to come????

"critics say the [capping] measures [proposed] are a dangerous tinkering with NORMAL MARKET FORCES and could exacerbate problems in the long run by discouraging development of new sources of electricity"

"The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission which oversees the wholesale electricity markets...[has refused to impose caps]...saying it can only do so if it FINDS EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION by power companies to drive up prices."

My opinion: Bush sidesteps controls and aims for the fence in a swing for the free market.

Chris PowellSwiss financial magazine features GATA#473522/3/2001; 12:11:53

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/639

Long story about gold manipulation and
lawsuit.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

justamereBearTopaz 47321 and 47322#473532/3/2001; 12:24:27

Loved your year of...
Re my 47318 & 9 Ooops.

j'Bear

USAGOLDAll. . . .#473542/3/2001; 12:34:05

http://www.latimes.com/wires/wbusiness/20010203/tCB00a2255.html

I've added some quotes to the Commentary & Review page that might of interest, particularly the one below with my comments and another on the Conference of Governors on the energy crisis which I think you will find interesting.
_______________________

"We are not in a recession. There is not enough data to point to a recession. What we are seeing is an economy with a slower rate of growth than we had before." --- Donna Zerwitz, National Bureau of Economic Research Inc., as reported by Reuters (Go to link above)

Ed. Note: I have been expressing a similar viewpoint in private with CPM/USAGOLD clientele. Technically, a recession is defined as six months of negative economic growth, and thus far we haven't had a single month of negative numbers. That's not to say that we won't have a recession -- just that we are not there yet. Though I agree with the tenor and direction of the Bush administration at this early stage, I disagree with selling the tax cut non the basis of an impending recession. Taxes should be cut for the obvious reason: They are a drain on productive individuals. The tax
rates are too high -- plain and simple -- and the government too large. In my view, the constant talk of recession in the public venue is a mistake and unnecessary.

As an aside, I think the similarities in personna between the Bush and the Kennedy administrations are fairly remarkable. Both came into office promising a tax cut and restoring the national defense. Both packed their cabinet and advisory positions with the 'best and brightest' available from our citizenry. Both gave short inaugural speeches emphasizing citizen involvement in the political process,inclusiveness and American idealism. Both came from patrician backgrounds and portrayed themselves as decisive and men of character. Both were criticized in some quarters for their religious backgrounds. Of course there are differences between the two, but I find the similarities interesting nevertheless.

Gandalf the WhiteOk -- SIR MK , You ask for it and the story is now OUT !#473552/3/2001; 12:34:20

On MSNBC's webpage "This Week in Pictures" is a photo titled "New dog in Town" and shows MK the following:
"President Bush's dog "SPOT" romps on the South Lawn of the White House, once the playground of the former President Clinton's dog "Buddy". "SPOT" is the offspring of hte former first dog "Millie", who roamed the White House when GW's father was President"
---
NOW, the cat is out of the bag !!
SHHHHHHHHHH -- Wall street and COMEX players have not figured out just what this ("SPOT" in the "cat-bird seat") means to the future of all Goldheart's !
---
PS: I can not tell if "SPOT" is a Golden Retriever" or just has a GOLD tennis ball in his mouth !
<;-)

USAGOLDNews Link. . . .#473562/3/2001; 12:34:30

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

I hardly see comment about our News Feed from London here or references to the great articles that come up there. I think it is one of the best news feeds on the internet for gold news and the economic and political events that affect it. I go to lots of pages and you would be hard pressed to find a better one.
SHIFTYOK ...who was it ?#473572/3/2001; 13:30:08

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010201/od/phony_dc_1.html

DANVILLE, Ky. (Reuters) - Talk about funny money.

Police in Kentucky are looking for a customer who succeeded in paying for a $2 order at a fast-food restaurant with a phony $200 bill featuring a picture of President George W. Bush (news - web sites) and a depiction of the White House with a lawn sign saying, ``We like broccoli.''

Authorities say the female cashier at a Dairy Queen in Danville even gave the culprit $198 in real money as change.

``Essentially, the story is that somebody at a drive-in ordered some food and passed a $200 novelty deal with George Bush on it,'' Danville Police Detective Bob Williamson said.

``At a distance it looks like a real bill, it's got the green color,'' Williamson said when asked how the cashier possibly could mistake it for genuine money.

The cartoonish bill was accepted on Sunday evening by the Dairy Queen cashier despite having Bush on one side and an oil well on the other. The phony bill also depicted the White House lawn with yard signs reading ``U.S. deserves a tax cut,'' ``No more scandals'' and ``We like broccoli,'' the last apparently referring to Bush's father's admitted dislike for the vegetable.

No U.S. currency has a picture of Bush, let alone a reference to liking broccoli.

Because there is no actual $200 currency, the culprit could face a charge of theft by deception but not counterfeiting, Williamson said.

IronHeadJava Man's HOF Nomination RE: Sir Henri's #47277#473582/3/2001; 13:57:11

Sir Java Man - Yesterday's forum was quite the epiphany for me to review late into the wee hours, with resounding thunder from Sir Oro, a return to "watch together" by Sir FOA, Journeyman's most popular of contests, and above all else, the most humble of gifts by Sir Henri.

With utmost pleasure and appreciation I second your nomination of Sir Henri's "Gift", to us all.

Having been here for close to two years, thru this forum I've come to a technical understanding of our gold/financial world, but more importantly a compassionate understanding of our "whole" world. Gold the metal is soft and maleable, as are the human emotions and foibles which shape our feelings of oneness. This unity of compassion and "being" have been so eloquently expressed by Sir Henri on numerous occasions, with other IronHead personal HOF archives which include 4-9-00 #28333,#28334,#28338; 4-16-00 #28757,#28761; 7-18-00 33594 [THIS IS ONE OF MY BLOODY FAVORITE ANTHOLOGIES OF THOUGHT EVER, ANYWHERE!!] and 8-26-00 #355547 (an outstanding day of review for some of FOA's, Ari's ((where far out thou, Sir Ari?)) and Henri's thoughts)

With the ability to remind us of our true selves, as human beings, beyond the mere creatures which crave "to have", as opposed with "to be", none have done so well in this endeavor.

I'm sure Sir Henri does not seek this admonition of splender, but he sure does deserve it!!

Salutations and "clink"
IronHead

tedwMURDER#473592/3/2001; 14:07:09

http://www.usagold.com

I think it is unconsionable that a known murderer be allowed to post on this site.

Black Blade alias The Duck Murderer

tedwMURDER#473602/3/2001; 14:07:10

http://www.usagold.com

I think it is unconsionable that a known murderer be allowed to post on this site.

Black Blade alias The Duck Murderer

tedwSilver leasing#473612/3/2001; 14:09:13

http://www.usagold.com

Im seeking an education.I know that the Central Banks are the lessors of Gold, but who is doing the leasing of silver?

My understanding is the US has no stockpiles of silver anymore. So who has this big stash of silver that is available for lease?

IronHeadJourneyman's Fiat Funambulism#473622/3/2001; 14:43:11

Wow, a contest on my level! And the prize matches my level too.

A nano is defined as one/billionth or 10 to the minus 9th pwr. With oh so many billions in leveraged instruments, and so many billions of printed papers out in the world at large, it seems appropriate that all those promises to pay are in diametric oposition to the actual worth or value of what they represent, thus they fall into the "nano nothing" category.

Please donate my nano nothing prize to the derivative bank relief fund of your choice.

Salutations
IronHead

IronHeadReally Yummy Stuff!!#473632/3/2001; 15:19:59

This is too delicious to pass on, so I'll rejoice in sharing it, as it ties in so well with my HOF second, and the Fiat funderall.

Furthering my nomination of Sir Henri's excellent work is the 7-18-00, #33594 post, which touches on the subjects of the fiat illusion, and how it relates to our perceived worth as sovereign beings, or slaves of our own perception.

From Henri: "The common bond of today's democratically induced bureaucracy is a worthless piece of fiat paper. When pursuit of such chits of fantasy cease, so will the fear of the potentate. This will be the ruin of this despotic power structure and hopefully the rebirth of the American Republic." [further along] "When the script of life becomes well defined, interest in the pursuit of life wanes. There are those that surrender to this and those that choose by free will alone to adopt a different perspective. For these sovereigns, life is an unfolding adventure. We are constantly amazed at those who follow the script."

These words speak so very well, what most of us "feel" in our bones regarding our place in this evolving dynamic of fiat illusion and gold-personal worth.

Salutations
IronHead

TopazSimply me#473642/3/2001; 15:32:40

Hi Granny,
Nice post the other day - funny the impression one gets from reading the input here isn't it? It's a natural reaction on reading a post to construct a minds-eye image of the respective poster and in your case I had you pegged as a mid-thirties male computer geek working night shift in Hawaii.
ORO - of course - is a nerdy 19 yo number cruncher who married his Mom....<wink>
BB - without a doubt - is NOT feminine, but a pretty scary cus none-the-less.
and the list goes on....

anyway, nice to meet you out of the closet Ma'am.

WaterboyGrass hoppers - 10 Ants - 0#473652/3/2001; 15:40:46

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010130/ca_dept_wa.html

ENERGY UPDATE/Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power Daily
Energy Update, Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2001

LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 30, 2001--The Los
Angeles Department of Water and Power issued its Daily Energy Update for Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2001:

The state has extended the Stage 3 alert for the 15th consecutive day and the Los Angeles
Department of Water and Power (DWP) continues to provide surplus energy to California. Yesterday,
DWP provided between 525 Megawatts (MW) and 1,150 MW per hour to the state through the
California Department of Water Resources.

The rolling blackouts from power shortages that have occurred in other parts of California will not be
felt by DWP customers.

DWP forecasts a peak energy load today in Los Angeles of 3,580 MW.

DWP has up to 1,100 MW of energy available today for sale.

This energy will be available to California entities to assist them in meeting their normal and emergency
energy needs. No power will be sold outside of the state during any DOE-certified or ISO staged
emergency.

DWP has 24 major thermal generating units at eight facilities. Today, 15 units are operating, including
nine of 10 base load units. Of the nine units not operating, five units have scheduled major maintenance
activities underway; three units are undergoing minor maintenance; and the remaining unit is available
for use, as the market requires. Hydro resources and pumped storage facilities can also be used to
meet market demands.

While electric rates have increased for some utilities in California, Los Angeles City residents continue
to enjoy stable rates that have remained unchanged for almost nine years. DWP provides electricity
and water to the city's 3.8 million residents.

UsulFiat#473662/3/2001; 15:46:17

Perishable Paper Promises
lamprey_65MK#473672/3/2001; 16:42:56

I agree with your point about this administration's talk of a recession as being a mistake for the economy - constant talk of recession by high-level politicians can do nothing but harm to consumer confidence.

I think, however, that there is more to the Bush team's tactic of using recession talk to push their tax plan. I firmly believe they know we have been in an asset bubble situation over the past few years and that unwinding such bubbles are always painful. They understand that extreme pain is coming for the populace and want to make sure that as much blame as possible can be deflected onto the previous administration - otherwise, the Republicans will have ZERO chance of doing well in the 2002 or 2004 elections.

Mr GreshamFiat on the Joyce Channel (calling CB2)#4736802/03/01; 18:22:38

You might add crates of Weimarica.


Peter's loaves less filling, but NY fed.

------------ (Fisherman's Fake)

Tree in the ForestOk, this table is as good as it gets!#4736902/03/01; 18:31:16

Here are some additional Comex figures. Gold futures are looking for 10 million oz of gold with just 91,000 oz eligible. Please correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the remainder of total stock at 1.8 M oz is registered which means spoken for. Of course there's no way to know how many of these contracts will call for delivery. AG futures for March are asking for a whopping 228 million oz of silver with just 25 million oz eligible. Can anyone say default? Palladium is a joke and ditto platinum with virtually no stock in either metal. Copper is calling for over 500,000 short tons with barely 79,000 available and most of that is in Arizona. Possible spot shortages? Aluminum does not appear to have a problem. Refining aluminum ore is very energy intensive though so this is a good time for al companies to slow production and sell the energy instead. It may be worth more than the aluminum.
The California/Oregon border electricity was interesting so I thought I would add it. Zero open interest. Guess noone wants to sell CA any electricity!

Just thought someone might be interested in these figures.

As of: 1/31/2001 All figures approximate
& subject to adjustment
Comex Future
Contract spec.
Open interest near months
Comex stock

AU
100 oz.
Futures 100,000
Eligible 91,000 oz.
Registered 1.8M oz.

AG
5000 oz.
Futures March 45,500
Eligible 25M oz.
Registered 93M oz.

PD
100 oz.
Futures March 1450
110 oz.

PT
50 oz.
Futures April 7500
620 oz.

CU
25,000 lbs.
Futures 41,000 Feb & March
79,000 short tons mostly in AZ

AL
44,000 lbs.
Futures 1000 Feb, Mar & April
85, 000 short tons in spec
134,000 short tons other

CA/OR border electricity
432 MWh over 1 month
Currently no open interest in any month
Last settle $320.00/MWh basis March

tedwRepent#4737002/03/01; 18:33:35

http://www.usagold.com

Black Blade:

Repent of your foul Duck Murders. I have sent an e-mail to PETA requesting a wanted poster on you.

Go Gold

Tree in the ForestGalearis, Journeyman, Henri#4737102/03/01; 18:35:29

Galearis: I will keep an eye on Comex and post when I find something interesting.

Journeyman: How about "note bloat"?

Henri: Thank you kind sir. That post about receiving was very helpful!

IronHeadRandy (@ The Tower) RE: Request for response to your #47284#4737202/03/01; 18:54:51

Sir Randy - Your request for a brief and HONEST response to the above thought.

Along the same theme as I've addressed earlier today with respect to Sir Henri's thoughts on the human element, I feel your comments align with all whom reflect upon "fiat" as lie, perpetrated upon man, by man. Some in our midst deceive and wish to be deceived. Others seek truth and tell the truth. Gold appears to be the litmus test that all adhere to in effort to define their postition, be it by lie, or be it truth.

Wakata? Japanese for, "understand, or did I confuse?"

Salutations
IronHead

Tree in the Foresttedw#4737302/03/01; 19:01:46

Who would lease silver? How about the "Oracle of Omaha". He's certainly in position to do that. Now why would he do that? Perhaps he's waiting for the right moment to call in his loans and pull the rug out from under the silver market. Whaddya think?
schippiXAU Analysis & Chart#4737402/03/01; 19:32:15

http://www.SelectSectors.com/rhodes020201.htm

Current XAU analysis by Richard Rhodes
IronHeadTree in the Forest RE: your #47369#4737502/03/01; 19:41:18

Hmm.... I've never addressed a tree as Sir, but why not?

Sir Tree - Enjoy your Comex updates, and wonder if you've noticed that the Comex stores always seem to show 1.8M ozs. regardless of how many deliveries take place on a month to month basis? I've observed this for as long as I can remember-(about 1 hr), seriously for at least a year now.

Do they just wave a wand and with Merlin like magic, make it appear? Or does some real gold actually make it to stores each and every month to make up the deficit? Why always 1.8 seems to be on hand, never 1.7 or 1.9? Do you think this is part of the collusion to sell more paper, and will it possibly increase magnumously when and if the short covering rally from perdition commences? That is, will they artificially have 20.8M ozs. if need be to cover the long positions when the trade is reversed some day?

I realise some of these questions might be beyond your direct ability to answer, but they have been floating around in my mind for quite some time, and your Comex actuarials triggered the response. Perhaps one of our paper tigers can help us out - sure miss ole Goldhunter, (too bad he got his panties in such a knot) as he was pretty determined in his prognostications for equal paper gold wealth, as opposed to those of us whom feel "physical" is a safer more comfortable bet.

Really enjoy your posts.

Salutations
IronHead

John DoeName that Fiat#4737602/03/01; 20:26:54

Feddie money
dough-nots
scamoney (pronounced 'sca-muh-nee)
anti-liberty bonds
theft and control units (or tacu's for short)

Tree in the ForestIronHead#4737702/03/01; 20:40:22

IronHead, does your name refer to a Harley? Re: Comex. Looking at their gold stocks reminds me of the old bankers trick of putting a lot of cash in the teller's window to convince clients that the bank has lots of money and deflect a run on the bank. I actually witnessed this sort of baloney at Y2K. A teller flashing an enormous stack of bills at the window. They list a lot of registered gold which is most of the 1.8M oz but this gold is spoken for. The paltry amount that's actually available is less than 100,000 oz. Makes it look like they have more available than they actually do. I think it's a trick. They don't pull this nonsense with anything but silver and gold both of which are highly manipulated. What's the point of listing something that's not for sale? You also see this with other businesses like cars and real estate where they take great pride in showing a few ads with SOLD! plastered across the ad. Makes it look like business is great.
AELCanuck#4737802/03/01; 20:52:55

Canuck (2/3/2001; 5:14:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47326
last I believe was to the rescue of silver, yes? [YES]
May have had a vodka or three too many last night [they go
down easy, don't they?] have developed cranial crack around
left temple [ :-) .... my cranium was cracked from the getgo, which explains a lot ..... ]

RossLJourneyman - contest#4737902/03/01; 22:10:24

Truth and simplicity works. In public places I sometimes refer to green dollar money as "banknotes"... This invariably results in the precious looks of a lack of understanding by young cashiers.

Of course, I'm sure they think I'm some old weirdo kook. Everyone knows those green paper dollars are money. The only money that teenagers have ever known.

I did like that suggestion from John Doe (47376) - "theft and control units"

Simply MeTopaz#4738002/03/01; 22:28:31

You're a hoot! I'm probably as financially dumb as a "mid-thirties male computer geek working night shift in Hawaii". My economics education is somewhat stunted.
You were right about the "computer geek" part of it, though. I am, proudly, a second generation computer geek. Mother, aged 71, is fluent in FoxPro, Visual Basic, Fortran, Cobal and Machine Language. Night shift duties are entirely by choice. My husband and I run a business. I run the computer/internet end of it. Hawaii? I wish! I'm just outside of Nashville, Tennessee.

As for Oro and BB, I think you have them pegged.......
"ORO - of course - is a nerdy 19 yo number cruncher who married his Mom....<wink>BB - without a doubt - is NOT feminine, but a pretty scary cus none-the-less."
ROFLOL (Rolling on the floor, laughing out loud.)

So, what led "Topaz", a late-thirties "nearly-Outback" Aussie cowboy who has to fight the children for time on the computer, to this gold forum?

I know it's impossible, but wouldn't it be fun to read everyone's impressions of all the other posters and, later, read all the revelations?

Is Journeyman a rich playboy (old money, inherited) with a condo in Las Vegas who used to gamble in stocks and in casinos? Do you picture Mr. Gresham as fity-year old, balding, bank-manager? <a wink and a nudge>

I wish I understood enough of the stuff posted here to form some kind of a relevant (to gold) argument, but all the information seems to lead to just one picture for me.....U.S. economy down, U.S. stock market down, U.S. dollar DOUBLE-down......fuel/energy UP, gold UP Big Time! Switching to Euro seems to be a saving grace for other countries, but the U.S. will be too proud to admit loss of reserve currencey status. I doubt the Fed/U.S. gov't. will allow U.S. citizens easy access to Euros until there are thousands protesting on the Whitehouse lawns. The Fed and the US Treasury must have their seinorage.

The Aussie dollar has had it's trials recently, but I think the U.S. will see double-trouble soon. The destination is set..it's only a matter of which path we take, and when we get there.

simply

Mr GreshamSimply Me#4738102/03/01; 22:57:53

Bingo! Hey! -- where did my BANK go? (I set it down right here... somewhere.)
HoratioSocialism#4738202/03/01; 23:21:50

The administration should declare socialism to be a religeon ,then its funding can be limited to the same as the others,providing of coarse they don't preach thier particular gospel.In which case they would be cut off.
Peter AsherHoratio#4738302/04/01; 00:30:46

Re >>>>The administration should declare socialism to be a religion, then its funding can be limited to the same as the others, <<<<

All religions could be seen as socialism as they grant beingness and various supports to the individual by the fact of his existence rather than the statistics of his production. Socialism per-se would then be an agnostic form of religion.

Old YellerOkay,I'm totally puzzled by this one#4738402/04/01; 00:55:52

One of the aspects of this forum I love is the questions,hard facts and theories raised here pose such huge conundrums,it seems I can actually feel the thought processes ricocheting around my brain in futile search for answers.

One of these is the yields of US Treasury 10yr. and 30yr.bonds.The prevailing opinions presented in the mainstream(of which I read a lot of in a attempt to form a balanced perspective)'sees A.G. dutifully lowering interest rates in the time honoured strategy of re-igniting the suddenly swooning economy.Knowing what we know(it really isn't that hard to find),on total debt loads of the U.S.,how can there not be adverse reactions in the longer term bonds?Could the popular perception of a rapidly shrinking deficit combined with the much trumpeted Treasury re-purchase really have quieted the bond market vigilantes?How long can the illusion of budget surpluses and debt paydowns be maintained?Again it is not too hard to find the information that there is still a budget deficit and that the unified total debt is still growing.Where is the fear of currency risk in this equation and how is it so easliy glossed over?

On a related note, has anybody heard of a H.W. Brock or an organization or newsletter entitled Strategic Economic Decisions.I saw his name mentioned in a editorial,it sounds as if he holds a lot of opinions that are prevalent here at this fine forum.

TIA,Old Yeller

gidsekLafisrap#4738502/04/01; 00:58:26

I haven't visted GE in many moons chiefly because of the tripe one finds there like the Roffey article.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/roffey020401.html

head & shoulders my foot! though he's right about the declining wedge thing IMHO.

Not a swipe at you, USAGs' Wagnerian gold heart, just miffed at what some writers try to pass off as TA.

gidsek

IronHeadTree in the Forest#4738602/04/01; 01:13:21

Sir Tree - Haa.... I love it, A "Harley"!- Never thought of my handle as such. No, I'm afraid my moniker refers to my stubborn block-headed determination as if a bull in the proverbial china closet, or perhaps more apt, a gold bull in a paper jungle. Although, I suppose bone-head, pan-head, knuckle-head, dead-head all could apply equally as well.

Yes I am of the two wheeled motor-head persuasion, but my resources have always precluded the luxury of American Iron.
For 20 some years my predilections, including wife, have been "made in Japan". Perhaps some day after the fiat folds, I can exchange a Rooster for something on the order of a Nigel Patrick 113 CI Super Glide Custom. You ride? If so, you're in good company with The Stranger and I believe Java Man, formerly aka Harley Davidson. Just another golden form of freedom, eh?

Yeah Verily on the Comex dog and pony show. With the Tocom and Nymex pretty well defunct on Pd deliveries, as so nicely annotated by Sir Black Blade (bet he's a road warrior too), we can perhaps see the direction Au and Ag will be heading as the paper pushers squeeze the fiat juice for all it's worth.
Eventually however, the music stops, or as you stated before, maybe Mr. B decides to run a new lease program, based on physical holdings. Way beyond my scope of imagination - all I know is my little physical group have no option or contract expiration dates. My group can't even read contracts.

Salutations
Block, er IronHead

OROOld Yeller - Interest, nominal and originary#4738702/04/01; 02:20:10

Perhaps interest rates are not what they appear to be. I proposed in an old post that as a result of the Fed being the de-facto guarantor of last resort to the derivatives market, providing the funds needed for settlement of defaulted futures contracts, as well as the guarantor of liquidity in particular and all bank liabilities in general, a few things follow:

First, interest rates on treasuries do not reflect the purely economic interest rates at the heart of credit; the originary interest rate. The rate of discount of future goods against current goods. The treasury interest rate rides below the market's estimated rate of currency depreciation. It is not an indicator of actual "economic" interest rates.

To the extent that particular debt issuers are deemed "too big to fail", interest on their debt does not reflect the market preference for economic interest rates, but the likelihood and degree of government backing for the debt. Economic interest rates are reflected in the spread between treasuries and non-government related debt. The spread, however, contains also the market's estimate of risk of default, along with the originary interest.

The second main result of this observation and reasoning, is that the futures market, where there is a guarantee of delivery of a dollar equivalent of the contract deliverable, is that originary interest should be measurable per product traded as the discount rate of future vs. current (spot) contracts plus the treasury interest rate for the period. Thus contracts that are in complete agreement with the standard pricing model imply no contribution to originary interest. Those with a stronger contango than treasury rates imply, contribute a negative component to the originary interest, while those in backwardation are contributing a positive component to originary interest.

Thus the conditions prevailing in the energy markets, where backwardation is severe, are contributing substantially to the originary interest rate. That is the core interest rate.

Off of this originary interest rate, the spreads beyond treasury rates in the credit markets are priced, with the market's estimate of the default rate added to it.

What this means is that if the originary rate is growing, one may see the spread between treasury rates and commercial rates growing even before a possible growth in default is considered by the market. In a "real economy" sense, the markets are attempting to close down users of scarce resources. The scarcer and more sought after these resources are, thus higher goes the spread their users are paying - both in the futures contracts - and in the debt contracts. The market is attempting to prevent these users from funding their use of the resources, as well as motivating to sell their inventories and current supply contracts rather than use the material for what the market considers to be a wasteful purpose.

The market compensates those willing to forgo current consumption of a commodity by backwardation: providing a realizable margin to those replacing the current supply with a future delivery –which is discounted to current spot prices.

On the credit markets, a restriction is imposed on borrowers who's inputs are the scarcer commodities. Weaker cash flows result from rising input costs relative to prices realizable on product. As cash flows contract for producers of less important goods, they may remain good for those more important goods (and services). Thus default rates would grow for the weaker companies, and they would face higher costs in raising funds in the debt markets and equity markets. Furthermore, average spreads would grow outside of the extension of default risk premiums (which are company specific), which allows the market to raise the general cost of holding inventory and consuming scarce resources needed for current consumption in capital investment.

This implies, by the way, that capping spot prices somewhere along the supply chain to the consumer is the MOST damaging government policy possible, since it distorts the key interest rate message from the market: the originary interest preference.

Thus while credit spreads increasing have the effect of an ACTUAL economic interest rate rise, which may be reflected in lower treasury rates rather than higher commercial or consumer rates, treasury rates reflect the market's estimate of general price rises expected in the period, as well as the Fed's current practices in purchasing or selling them (i.e. over-bidding the market, or under-asking it).

If you can wrap your mind around this, I think your view of the credit markets will be substantially enhanced.

OROBlack Blade - terrible bill#4738802/04/01; 02:50:23

The few details spelled out in your 47327 of yesterday are terrible. Energy Einsatzgruppen with regional uberfuhrers are not possibly part of a solution to the energy problem. New authority for the Federal Government can not be further from the country's needs than anything imaginable. What's next, a five year plan?

Republicans are just the fascist reflection of the socialist Democrats. The picture is the same, just the direction is reversed.

LeighWhere is Christian?#4738902/04/01; 06:13:41

Has anyone heard anything from Christian? He has disappeared from both our forum and Gold-Eagle. Hope the dark forces didn't get him!
KnallgoldBanking tricks#4739002/04/01; 06:56:13

Tree and ORO:I'd like to report of a new version of this banking trick,placing money or Gold for all to see'suggesting "we are liquid".(I didn't know of it before I read ORO's post awhile back)

Last Novenmber,if you played a lottery in Switzerland,you could win 10kg of Gold.Of course it was nicely advertised everywhere.A picture of huge stash of Goldbars together with the information "just make a cross here and you can win 10kg Gold".

"Oh,if they give it away in a lottery there must be a glut of the stuff." Just 10kg can do the trick,and the winner would probably sell it back anyway.

I looked closer to the bars: it was from CSFB.Does Credit Suisse have a problem with Gold liquidity???

Old YellerKindest regards to Sir Oro#4739102/04/01; 07:18:49

Oro,thank you so much for your prompt and detailed response to my question.I feel I can comprehend the gist of your view of the complexity of the issue,it's going to take a few more wrapping sessions to get it comepletely.

I truly appreciate your time and effort.

ORORandy of the tower - fiat trust and faith#473922/4/2001; 9:54:46

02/02/01; 15:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 47273

Being over-skeptical or lacking in hope regarding the advents of fiat results from the observation of the obvious structural weakness of the systems built and those offered to replace them, including the Euro. In all the debt and fiat currency systems past and present, as well as those proposed for the future, the core problem is not resolved. That being that failure is not punished and success not rewarded in proportion.

The reason for their being a fiat money system – one imposed by government rather than markets – is exactly that the markets are unwilling to embrace them – the reason for this being that they are inherently negative sum systems that do not spontaneously form in the markets.
The dollar reserve system is the result of a political agreement among governments. One initially imposed by a singularly victorious US in Bretton Woods, and by the apparent outright theft of foreign gold held in trust by the US. One maintained by a world squeezed between a communist threat (supported by the US itself – read "The Best Enemy Money Can Buy") and a US military hegemony. Europe, in 1971 had no more to lose by continuing the dollar reserve system since it was no longer in a position to be its victim, having written off accumulated dollar assets as unrecoverable, and being dollar cash flow positive. Never had the market been given a choice in the matter.

Over time, the US government was forced to accommodate dilution of the initial power of the interests that drove the initial creation in the dead of night of the Fed, and by intimidation of the whole of the legislative power into passing the FDR fiat dollar system. The markets reacted in due course to the privileges of the original interests to bring those to naught, and those interests had to dilute their privileges by sharing them with successively more groups. Eventually, many of the short term privileges (that seemed permanent at the time) turned into traps and backfired. Yet none would quit the political game once trapped in it, because government was completely unwilling to relent in powers gained.

As to the fiat debt and cash currency system being in any way shape or form part of what makes civilization, it is quite the contrary. It is exactly what brought the Western Roman Empire to its ultimate demise, that turned the French revolution(s) into self decapitating actions. That brought the Mongols into China, and turned proud Britain of 1900 into the carrier of "British disease" in the 70s. It brought about WWI, and through the destruction of Germany's asset distribution structure it brought about WWII (there, the great inflation concentrated assets and power in the hands of a few industrial conglomerates that merged into a formidable power, who could then bribe their way into total political domination – particularly I.G. Farben).

Debt reflects that trust you speak of. We trust a contractor to provide the goods and services contracted within the limitations of what both sides could have known of market conditions that might affect fulfillment. Fiat debt money (or cash money) is not an article of trust, but of faith. A faith easily lost. A faith in an impossible system, a false messiah. A faith born of propaganda and lies. A faith destined to reverse.

In the days of Yellin, Aragorn, and Aristotle, we discussed the inherent impossibility (my opinion) of a fiat monetary system that reflects the market preferences and allows transparency of the monetary system to economy. I provided the argument that the mere existence of a monetary authority, no matter what its decisions, will prevent proper functioning of the market. Unless a release is allowed for the market to circumvent the official monetary system, it would collapse within a few years to a decade.

During the collapse of a global currency system, the presence of a nearly identical structure such as the Euro would not imply that people would choose it over the one collapsing. Furthermore, unlike the near collapse of the dollar in the 70s, there is no official gold backed redeemable currency, and once the US fails in its role, it is difficult to reason a process of market decision making that ends up not destroying the alternative currencies as well as the dollar. One can reason through a political process that would end up there, but in times of global turmoil, political processes react far too slowly to prevent market forces from playing their role.

Even the transition from Sterling to Dollar required that the dollar be backed by gold and redeemable to the international market at a par value. Doubtless, in order to "take over" the new fiat reserve system will have to look like it offers redeemability in gold, and not only to a few privileged people and organizations.


A couple of notes:
Government's nature as an organization of people (with goals and self interest no different from anyone else's - one does not magically transform into a saint upon assumption of a political or bureaucratic position). This organization having the unique property of possessing control over overwhelming force of violence - well above that of any other organization. Von Mises and Rothbard after him had pointed out that violence is the only way in which economic decisions are thwarted. The only way in which transactions occur without agreement of all sides to the transaction, and without all of them benefiting from it. The forms of violence are theft, kidnapping, and – to an extent – fraud. And their corollaries extortion, bondage, and imposed contracts. These are also the bulk of the actions of government, though disguised in fancy names and painted in color of law (but without its substance).

Centralized coercive decision-making that is characteristic of government and intrinsic to it causes the inverse 20 80 rule (20% of participants are responsible for 80% of the benefit - is turned into 20% is benefited from the consensus of 80% - this is known as the law of crowded trades - see the California electric system where the structure was a compromise agreed to by politicos, bureaucrats, consumer groups, electric companies, where the only beneficiaries were non-participants in the agreement and those who were beyond California's jurisdiction). In other words, government decisions replace trillions of decisions by individuals exercising their judgment and having a vested interest in making the right decisions and an interest in learning from the wrong ones. These are replaced with a fixed set of necessarily wrong decisions.

The law of the crowded trade is a way of saying that most of the people are wrong about most things most of the time. And that excluding the obvious, they will ultimately form a consensus around the wrong path of action, and reach the wrong conclusions. It is also the law of experts. Experts agree about the obvious and reach a wrong consensus with more authority. Their expertise, rather than provide them with a substantial edge in making the right calls provides them instead with a surefooted stride while walking off the edge of the cliff. Furthermore, experts tend to support whomever pays their fees at the expense of truth and their reporting of reality.

From this also rises the "law of unintended consequences" where the experts combine with the various interests to drive imposed centralized decisions which would have an adverse effect through unexpected reactions. The reactions would be unexpected because the experts and the interests involved can not avoid reaching the conditions of a "crowded trade".

------------------------

Regarding the issue of mark to market regimes, the important issue is that statute requires actions of commercial institutions (particularly banks) according to criteria tied to their reported assets. This means that under particular circumstances all institutions holding particular assets would be FORCED by statute to act against their judgment (and interests).

PandagoldThe power of GOLD (or who chops down the tree?)#473932/4/2001; 10:06:40

Fellow knights, or, at least, those of you who care to read my postings, which I share with you not for the purpose of indoctrination, but merely to help you consider, from time to time, the more provocative ideas, that by their very nature can sometimes jolt the beliefs of those with the more conservative, and 'palatable', thoughts of what makes this world tick, I offer you now the following.

It will be of particular interest to those who doubt 'the real power of gold' - GOLD, the focal point of what this forum is all about, if I am wrong, then I have been misleading myself, and apologise.

The quote is taken from a publication sponsored by N M Rothschilds, and published by The Bank of England

^ "........His (Nathan Meyer Rothschild) breakthrough came when he succeeded against all odds in assembling enough GOLD from across Europe to allow Wellington's army to pursue and defeat Napoleon at Waterloo....................."

Stop and consider this for a moment. This man, according to 'his story' was, only a short time earlier (less than 20yrs), living in the Jewish ghetto of Frankfurt.

Now, here he is being the only person that can assemble so much GOLD.

England, at that time was well into reaping the rewards of it being the birthplace of the great Industrial Revolution. In other words it was almost at the peak of its greatness in terms of wealth and power, while the rest of the world was still, apart from a few small pockets, an agrarian society We had a pretty good, well trained and disciplined, though not large, army, we had a powerful navy that had already beaten the best of Napoleon's - destroying it at the battle of Aboukir.

Yet, in order to pursue, and defeat, Napoleon, we needed - what - GOLD! ?

Now, I have never heard of the British army, or any other army for that matter, firing gold bullets, or using gold in its military machine. The army couldn't eat gold (though I believe it is edible). So, why did we need GOLD? Why didn't Rothschild just assemble
donations of ordinary currency - we had enough pounds (stirling) as we were the leading industrial nation? Our sea power was unchallenged.

Could it be that the value of our 'paper' would have been vulnerable, as would our nation, and all it stood for, had Napoleon won?

And to whom was England now in eternal debt?

'He who has the gold rules'. That is the way it always has been, is, and always will be, until something, which even my open mind cannot foresee as being a possibility in many, many, lifetimes, comes to change it.

Who is moving this world then? Do you believe the US president? Alan Greenspan? Or are they merely tools that can be changed so easily once their usefulness has passed its sell by date.

What (who) cuts down the tree - the chainsaw, or the man operating it, or the man who employs the operator, and orders it chopped down.

These are the sort of questions I pose to myself when I am sat with a coffee a good cigar, and in search of enlightenment. As I have said, I share them with you, as fellow wanderers along those passages of life where there appears an absence of light, to take, to consider, or assign to the garbage basket as your fancy dictates.

PG

PandagoldFiat (A true story with a message)#473942/4/2001; 10:28:12

There has been much discussion about 'fiat' money. I would like to make a contribution but in a lighter, slightly more off beat note. Yet it does tell a story with a message.

Until recently, I was the, dubiously proud, owner of a Fiat car. One doesn't really need a car living in the environs of London as there is a reasonably efficient public transport system which most foreigners seem to appreciate and applaud, but we Brits are always ready to complain about.

However, I bought this car mainly because it was cheap, in good condition and economic to run.

There was another reason, for which I am glad I chose the Fiat. In London there is, or has been, a plague of car thefts. However, I found I could leave my car anywhere — even with the door unlocked, and it would always be there. I even reduced my insurance premium by having the section which covered theft removed.

One Christmas, my daughter had bought me a steering lock to help guard against theft, which brought howls of laughter whenever I told anyone. In their laughter they told me that I had better make the attracive steering lock itself secure as they would take that and leave the car,

I was even told of a man who had approached Fiat with a patent foolproof locking system for their vehicles, but was turned down with the retort " Who the hell would steal a Fiat?"

I said earlier, that I had this car until recently. It was still in running condition, but had passed a car's normal sell-by date. I had stopped using it as I preferred the public transport rather than battle London traffic. So the car was left sitting parked at the curb, all doors unlocked with everything but the words 'take me' posted on it.

It sat there for weeks and weeks. I found it was finally collected by the local council the other day in accordance with legislation covering abandoned cars.

I wondered if this was why the Italians named it FIAT. After all, their understanding of the meaning has certainly been brought home to them in their currrency. Just $480 makes you an Italian (lira) millionaire

Could there one day be a car called the" Dollar" - one that didn't require a locking system? I hope it never comes to that, as much as I would like gold to rise.

Au-some(No Subject)#473952/4/2001; 10:30:52

Thanks to all for the great food for thought served up here. Even the "brain candy" is nutritious,i.e. "...empires of the future will be empires of the mind..." and "...sorry for the long letter, I didn't have time to write a short one...".
Sir Journeyman, regarding a nickname for fiat money, has anyone yet suggested "Alan's Green Spams"?

tedwSilver leasing#473962/4/2001; 10:44:31

http://www.usagold.com

Im still looking for some answers about silver leasing.



With gold it makes sense. Central Banks have these huge store of gold in their vaults doing nothing. So they lease it to earn an income, and at the same time supress the price of gold which makes the central bankers fiat currency
look good. Makes sense.

But the Central banks dont have huge stores of silver do they? So I ask the question again, who is doing the silver leasing and why?

IronHeadOro - RE: #47392 - Release??#473972/4/2001; 10:55:11

Sir Oro - Ausome, another day to study "one" of your thoughts!

Could you elaborate on your mention of a necessary "release" for markets to function effectively? This was apparently before my time, and was not privy to the discussion between the aforementioned Wizards.

Which market are you speaking of, or is this a generic thought applying to virtually all markets, ie. currency, bond, gold, etc, which influence the monetary system? Would this be an inference to the underground economy, or even the black gold market?

Thank you for the time you spend here.

Salutations
IronHead

Chris PowellSouth African mineworkers union endorses GATA#473982/4/2001; 11:45:21

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/640

Murphy's trip is starting to show
results.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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HenriThank you, JavaMan and IronHead#473992/4/2001; 11:53:01

for your kind efforts in the nominations of my Post 47277. Myself I don't particularly think it would be appropriate as my post has little to do with gold and more with my distress at finding our Trail Guide in a huff.

I find it more than sufficient to know that some folks read my posts and that they are allowed to be enshrined here on just the regular board without their being deleted and/or me being tossed overboard for posting non-relevant rantings.

Mr. Gresham, Cobra(too), and Tree...you are truly welcome to my thoughts and I am glad my musings have been found useful.

I thought this piece might make a good screenplay.

Knallgoldcontest#474002/4/2001; 12:23:45

A trial with a sophisticated creation,I think you englishspeaking persons will find the right sound to pronounce it.
Lets merge money,phoney,funny,Fannie into one hybrid (why the hell sounds this all so equal in english???):
Phunney.

rcsilver leasing#474012/4/2001; 12:27:45

@tedw

I don't know either. And nobody seems to know. People alluded to China selling. Others said Buffett was leasing it. Still hard to swallow that China might sell her silver at bargain prices. Same for Buffett, he should know that he will never see his silver again no matter of much paper he will be paid for.

Still, there must definitely be several hundred millions oz of silver above ground. Maybe just enough to cover the next two years. But again, who is so dumb as to let silver go away at these prices? Scratching my head.

justamereBearTedw 47396 Oro 47392 Journeyman contest#474022/4/2001; 12:27:47

Tedw
There are others, other than central banks, leasing gold. Anyone who wants to earn an income from a non revenue producing asset such as gold or silver can, and does, providing they have enough to make it worthwhile, lease it. Not that I think he does, but Buffet would be a prime candidate with his huge store of non revenue producing silver.

You seem bogged down with the idea that ONLY central banks can or do, lease things. In the gold market they are a big player, but not the only player.

Oro.
That is the best summation I have seen on a subject that I find one of the most significant aspects of the subject matter discussed on this forum. Hear!! Hear!!!

Journeyman
Your contest has brightened my day several times. If there was a HOF for ideas, then I would be the first to step up to nominate. You are going to have trouble topping that idea, but I have faith you will
Best regards.
j'Bear

SHIFTYGold Fields raises stakes in takeover plan#474032/4/2001; 12:37:03

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2422569E6003F2C2A?OpenDocument

Gold Fields, South Africa's second largest gold producer, reported a 19 per cent increase in dollar earnings (38 per cent in Rands) for the December quarter proving why it is coveted by rivals AngloGold and, possibly, Barrick Gold. The group also has abundant economic gold reserves: about 70 million ounces at $250 per ounce. This increases to 79 million ounces at $300 per ounce (R7.8/$1.00), the gold price assumption used by Placer Dome recently.

The quarter-on-quarter improvement includes a one tonne decline in gold production owing to seismic activities and other production hitches in key West Wits mines, Driefontein and Kloof. Stripping out the group's lossmakers – Oryx and St. Helena – adds a further 10 per cent to earnings. Striking too is the cost control. Cash costs have been hauled in to $191 per ounce although local currency (rand) depreciation has played a major part.

The outcome for shareholders is a handsome R1.05 dividend representing about 50 per cent of earnings. This includes an interim payment and last year's second half payment which had been deferred owing to the prospect of a merger between Gold Fields and Canadian group Franco Nevada.

Gold Fields chairman Chris Thompson said the merger was "legally dead", but he fully expects to resuscitate the proposal if Barrick approaches Gold Fields with its own takeover plans. The attitude is that shareholders should be allowed to choose between two foreign partners assuming the South African government does not turn down Barrick's overtures as it did those of Franco Nevada. This is an intriguingly poised affair.

So too is AngloGold's now apparent desire to incorporate Gold Fields. Gold Fields officials say they expect AngloGold to come at them at any time. But managing director Ian Cockerill adds there's no bid premium in the Gold Fields share price which means AngloGold will have to pay.

The recent gain in Gold Fields to about R29.00 a share is largely based on its recovery fundamentals, Cockerill adds. What is a good value for Gold Fields? According to one analyst, Barrick is prepared to offer $5.00 for Gold Fields (R38.00 at a R7.60 conversion rate). Gold Fields touched and intraday level of R30.00 a share.

St. Helena

In the meantime, Cockerill says the group is seriously taking an inundation of inquiries over selling of the Free State province mine St. Helena. The mine reported a $2.1 million operating loss in the quarter which Thompson believes is unsustainable.

A black empowerment deal is being contemplated no doubt accelerated by the businessman Tokyo Sexwale who recently joined the Gold Fields board. Cockerill says cooperation with Harmony Gold, which is weighing up similar initiatives, is a possibility.

There's more patience with Oryx, another Free State mine, which halved its operating loss. Although a loss is still a loss, Cockerill believes the group must stick by its promise to give the mine two-years to perform. "We will review Oryx at the year-end but it is a free option on the gold price and has a ring-fencing plan we don't want to walk away from," he says. Gold Fields last year arranged for Oryx to share a tax base with St. Helena and Beatrix, operations within the same gold field. It's also a relatively young orebody.

All the other operations performed well. Operating profit quarter on quarter increased $9 million to $50 million. However, it's the interim figures that are most impressive: net operating profit has almost doubled and net earnings has grown four times year-on-year. "What has been most pleasing is that the team has not over-spent, working conditions and underground safety has improved, and we have a clean balance sheet," Cockerill said.

SHIFTYChris Thompson: Executive chairman, Gold Fields Limited#474042/4/2001; 12:38:36

http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B2852569E7000696B1?OpenDocument

MONEYWEB: Chris Thompson, the executive chairman of Gold Fields Limited, joins us now. Chris, you had a cracking December quarter that you have announced the results of - net earnings up 38% to R277m. But I guess the main thing is that the cash costs are down to below $200 an ounce and, even at these gold prices, that means good profits?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Alec, yes. We took them down from $206 to $191 in US dollar terms. But, interestingly enough, they've also come down in rand-per-ton terms, from 252 to 249, so this is what we were looking for, that we've been striving for, for some time. The rand-per-ton figure has always been quite obstinate an the inflationary environment in South Africa, so it's very pleasing to be able to get it down.

MONEYWEB: You've also announced the dividend of 105c. Why that is relevant is that you did say in the past that you would hold back on your dividend payments until the Franco-Nevada deal had been concluded. Franco-Nevada, the North American company that you were hoping to merge with - the financial authorities in South Africa didn't allow you to do it. But the fact that you are paying a dividend, does that mean that that merger with Franco-Nevada is now finally dead?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I won't say it's finally dead, Alec, because at a stroke we could resurrect it, if the government would reconsider. Both parties would always be keen to pursue it if we could, because we think it's still a tremendously value-adding opportunity. But we did come to the determination that asking shareholders to wait indefinitely was asking too much, and we though we better pay it out.

MONEYWEB: When you say "at a stroke" it could be reopened, what kind of a stroke would that have to be?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Government consent.

MONEYWEB: And has government given you any indication that they might be changing their minds?

CHRIS THOMPSON: No. There's nothing, frankly, that we could say that gave us strong encouragement to think that they were going to reopen it at the moment. They did at one point indicate they might reconsider it, they've never told us that they wouldn't, or that it's now formally off the agenda, so we remain hopeful.

MONEYWEB: What about the speculation that's doing the round that Gold Fields Limited itself is now being pursued - and specifically by an Anglogold Barrick consortium?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I really can't comment on Barrick. We have today admitted that I have had conversations with Bobby Godsell - informal ones - during which he has acknowledged that he would like to see an alliance between Gold Fields and Anglogold created. But there is nothing either formal or informal in the form of a proposal on the table.

MONEYWEB: And the fact that Anglo American Corporation now holds 17% of your equity, after the recent deal on First Rand. Has that meant that you needed to get a little closer to Anglo American? You said you had discussions with Anglogold's chief executive, but what about the parent company?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I'm not sure that the parent company particularly wants Gold Fields. It would be Anglogold that would want us. So on first principles, there's no real reason to talk to Anglo American, although Anglo American via Anglogold would be an interested party. In the first instance, we would have to talk to Anglogold.

MONEYWEB: Chris, any update on your platinum prospect in the Arctic Circle?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Alec, we gave a quick one today. There is nothing very significant to report other than on what we call the Penicat SJ Reef, which had previously been drilled to about 100 metres, and looks very promising because it has an extremely long strike link, some 25 km. But, in the most promising area of it, we have drilled down now and traced the reef down to 500 metres. We don't have the air face, so I can't tell you that it is particularly significant, but if it does assay at the kind of grades that we found at surface, then the significance is that it could add to potential tonnage in ounces very quickly. But we won't know the answers until April, when it's all analysed and put together. It will take a while yet.

MONEYWEB: So that is some time off. But the other thing that isn't far off - the gold price of $266 an ounce and as you said in your official announcement today, that this is too low for the long-term survival of the gold industry?

CHRIS THOMPSON: It is. $266 is not enough to justify the development of most possible new deposits around the world, and the thing that I'm finding concerning is that - less so in South Africa, but particularly so in North America - the declining gold price is causing a dry-up of exploration, so there is no new reserve being created. But much worse, it's causing major mining companies to have to write off reserves, write off gold bearing material which would, in the past, have been economic but is no longer economic. It is a source of concern. The available underground reserves around the world are contracting, and contracting quite fast.

MONEYWEB: That is Chris Thompson, the executive chairman of Gold Fields Limited and, as you might have heard, one of the most exciting parts of the group at the moment is that they are prospecting for platinum in the Arctic Circle. Talk about going North

lamprey_65Good Read#474052/4/2001; 12:52:00

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=2373.topic

Enjoy :-)
PandagoldThe Odyssey of the good ship,"Agenda"#474062/4/2001; 13:17:04

There is an abundance of books, old and new, which purport to understand the ills that have beset national economic policies, and their inter-relationship within the world's economic framework. Most put forward their flavour of cures, some old, some new. Placed end to end they would probably stretch across America.

Economic theories abound, some have become doctrines, almost religions, and are interchangeably practised from time to time by those charged with steering their ship through the murky waters of international trade and finance, though each may present a contrast in principle to that followed by a previous 'pilot'

Get thirty of the leading economists together, though they be products of the world's top business schools, and you will find there are enough differing opinions on how to tackle one of the more simpler economic problems that beset us, than there are days in a month.

What chance is there then for major issues, and especially (excuse me Saddam), the 'mother of all problems' that faces humanity now?

The complications that cause this are many, and although this has been with us for centuries - especially since trade transcended simple barter, the complexities, today, have reached proportions that I am quite safe in saying absolutely NO ONE, not even, this so far revered, Alan Greenspan understands them. If you were close to him, and got a few drinks down him, I feel sure you could get him to admit it.

Economic theory falls apart, in practice, for the same simple reasons that fundamental theory on racehorse 'form' falls apart, when put to practice for the intended betterment of one's pecuniary position, it fails to consider the interjection of professionally organised, highly skilled, manipulation.

I withdrew myself from one of the world's leading economic schools, because I was frustrated by the way this factor was not even considered. Yet, time and time again we see economists stumbling forward, advising companies and governments while leaning on their favourite, economic theory, crutch.

You are familiar with the well-known cliché -'Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to deceive'. In economics (macro and micro), and world monetary, and fiscal policy, how long do you think, highly skilled, deception has been going on? We have now arrived at a very tangled web indeed, far too tangled for anyone to un-weave, or to discern how the myriad of individual strands interweave and connect.

What Greenspan is doing, therefore, is giving it his best shot, but his main concern is not to bring his ship, the 'Agenda', home to the benefit of all its passengers, his main concern is for the 'elite' in first class who have chartered him. (And the ship carries only enough lifeboats for them).

It should be noted that on the tragic voyage of the Titanic, it is said that a contributory cause of the disaster was that the highly experienced Capt Smith' s better judgement was over-ruled by persuasive pressure from a representative of his 'powers that be', the company president Bruce Ismay - though this was never proved as is so often the case.

You can be assured, Greenspan will keep a grip on the POG as hard as he will that ships wheel. To let go, or relax too much, now, would be to warn all those passengers (to use an apt pun) that he has 'lost his grip'. Alarm bells that we were heading straight for inflation, would start ringing

Then there would be panic. Why? Because POG has become synonymous with inflation, safe havens, disaster, you name it. You cannot change overnight what has become part of the human psyche for centuries, and for good reason.

To Greenspan, there is one hope of salvation on the horizon, a small island, un-chartered until recently, that may offer a 'safe haven' if only temporary. If he can make
this island before disaster strikes, his hopes are that all will be well.

He knows that there, he will be afforded all that is needed while they wait for the present storm to subside, as the island is controlled by TPTB , for whom he is their trusted servant.

The name of the island - (Euro) land!

About other, possibly bigger, storms later? Their policy has always been 'one storm at a time’, and to keep the good ship, ‘Agenda’, as much as possible, right on course until they reach their promised land.

ge(No Subject)#474072/4/2001; 13:30:57

Once upon a time, I read book about fiat money at the FAME site (www.fame.org).
I believe it was written at the late 1970's. I cannot recall the author's name.

The FAME site was re-organized afterwards and, unfortunately, many articles including
this one were deleted.

The argument was roughly as follows:

* Aristocracy, by definition is government by a privileged class.
* During the middle ages the privilege of the aristocracy was "private property".
* Currently, the privilege of the aristocracy is "the right issue fiat money".

The author argued that the establishment of the Federal Reserve, historically corresponded
to the time frame in which Republican Rome was transformed into Imperial Rome (Ceaser's time),
and events would eventually lead to Feudal Middle Ages if left unchecked.

I believe that he has asked valid questions: Why should a minority be given
the privilege of issuing fiat money? How can we reconcile democracy and granting
privileges to a minority? What would stop the aristocrats from demanding more
privileges once the first privilege (the right to issue fiat) is universally
acknowledged?

...

In 1972, Italian scholar Umberto Eco wrote an essay titled "Towards a New Middle Age".
He asked, "what is required to build a new middle age". His answer:
A disintegrating "Big Peace" (military, civil, social and cultural peace); he then
went on to examine the details. In the concluding paragraph of the essay, he reminded
the reader of an ancient Chinese curse : "I hope you live in interesting times"!

SteveHHard landing#474082/4/2001; 13:39:02

http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m1181/2000_Sept/67886149/p4/article.jhtml?term=fed+prevent+recession

snippet:

Continued from page 3

MELTDOWN OR SLOWDOWN?

The notion that the strong U.S. economy "saved" the rest of the world during the global financial turmoil of the late 1990s has become increasingly fashionable. Even U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently referred to the United States as "the main engine of global growth." However, this proposition is not strictly true. Since the United States accounts for slightly more than a quarter of global economic activity, it certainly exerts a powerful influence. But positive correlations between U.S. business cycles and those of other countries have not, historically, been that high. Among leading industrial countries, only the United Kingdom and Canada have displayed business cycles that move together with those of the United States. Indeed, if the U.S. economy helped prevent a global recession following the financial crises of 1997 and 1998, it was precisely because its business cycle was not closely synchronized with many other economies. Otherwise the United States would have fallen into a recession along with the crisis-ridden regions.

Nevertheless, a U.S. stock market crash and subsequent domestic recession would have a major impact on the rest of the world. The effects would flow through four channels: trade, capital flows and exchange rates, commodity prices, and financial contagion.

International Trade In a deep recession, U.S. consumers' appetite for goods and services would diminish and imports would decline. The net deficit in trade in goods and services might even disappear over several years. Essentially, the United States would export unemployment by reducing its demand for what the rest of the world has to sell.

If this adjustment were to hit all trading partners proportionally, the direct effect would be biggest on Canada, where economic activity could decline by up to 8 percent over several years as U.S. trade patterns adjusted. The impact on Mexico would be almost as large, with a potential reduction in GD P of about 6 percent. This is hardly surprising, since exports to the United States accounted for 32 and 23 percent of the Canadian and Mexican economies, respectively, in 1999. The Western Hemisphere and developing countries in Asia would see a reduction in GDP of less than 2 percent, although there would be larger effects on the small, open economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. Central and Eastern European countries would not be too hard hit by the direct trade effect since they conduct most of their commerce with the European Union. The trade impact on Japan, the United Kingdom, and the euro zone would be small--a contraction of about 0.6 percent of their respective GDPs. The 11 Western European nat ions comprising the euro zone export only 2.2 percent of their GDP to the United States; the United Kingdom, 2.7 percent; and Japan, only 3 percent. Provided the U.S. trade adjustment occurred over several years, most countries would avoid recessions caused by weaker U.S. demand for their goods and services.

JourneymanSupporting evidence @ORO msg#: 47392#474092/4/2001; 14:12:50

Not that ORO needs any help, but here are a couple of quotes that
dovetail with ORO's msg#: 47392.

. . . Though an indispensable requirement for the functioning of
an extensive order of cooperation of free people, money has
almost from its first appearance been so shamelessly abused by
governments that it has become the prime source of distrubance of
all self-ordering processes in the extended order of human
cooperation. The history of government management of money has,
except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud
and deception. In this respect, governments have proved far more
immoral than any private agency supplying distinct kinds of money
in competition possibly could have been. -F. A. Hayek, _THE
FATAL CONCEIT The Errors of Socialism_, (Chicago: The University
of Chicago Press 1988), p. 103.

"From the point of view of this insight [paper money is cheaper
than gold and/or silver] one may call wasteful all expenditures
incurred for increasing the quantity of money. ... It was this
idea that led Adam Smith and Ricardo to the opinion that it was
very beneficial to reduce the cost of producing money by
resorting to the use of paper printed currency. However, things
appear in a different light to the students of monetary history.
*If one looks at the catastrophic consequences of the great paper
money inflations, one must admit that the expensiveness of gold
production is the minor evil.* -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action A
Treatise on Economics, Third Revised Edition (Chicago, Illinois:
Contemporary Books, Inc. 1966), pg. 422 -available also from
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp)

Regards,
Journeyman

AUtisticFull Circle?#474102/4/2001; 14:20:45

http://www.home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html

For sure, this is not 1934, however, the familiarity does breed MY contempt.
This article shows just what Midas, Howe, & GATA are up against!!!!!!

AUtisticcorrection#474112/4/2001; 14:23:11

http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html

Dorry, screwed up the first one!!
AUtisticNot a great day!#474122/4/2001; 14:28:46

Can you tell I'm fighting some flu!?? Dorry?????
Peter AsherPandagold msg#: 47406#474132/4/2001; 14:36:07

>>>>Economic theory falls apart, in practice, for the same simple reasons that fundamental theory on racehorse 'form' falls apart, when put to practice for the intended betterment of one's pecuniary position, it fails to consider the interjection of professionally organized, highly skilled,
manipulation. <<<<<

That would be doping the horse, of course. I see another parallel there in that while the Racing Form tells the statistics and empirical potentials of the participants, the actual event has a mind of its own.

>>> ancient quip: "Horse-sense is what keeps horses from betting on what people will do."


Re-Your reminder of the Titanic captain being pressured to maintain the record breaking pace for the PR of the maiden voyage.

I hadn't noticed before, the exact parallel to the Challenger launch. The high profile "Teacher in space" mission was ordered "Go" against the strong opinion of the Thiokol engineer who KNEW the O-rings wouldn't seal at that temperature.

Herein lies a window into your current thread regarding the hidden TPTB as the cause of all evil.

Who caused the Challenger disaster? The government for insisting on the glory of the mission? The engineer for not having the fortitude to proclaim his knowledge loud and clear despite the consequences? Or, all those who knew, as the countdown continued, that the cold could cause the catastrophe?

I got the news a few hours after it happened and called a close friend at Goddard. They were all saying that it was an O-ring failure due to the cold, yet it was several days before that was admitted publically. The empirical truth was too specific and broadly known for a cover-up.

The engineer who was the ‘Star witness' to negligent homicide, suffered a barrage of descreditment and was pushed into obscurity, if I recall correctly.

PerplexedPandagold #47406#474142/4/2001; 15:02:10

Very good post. I agree that Alan Greenspans mission is to accomplish the agenda of TPTB, however, I see a major shift in that agenda from accumulation of additional wealth, to the preservation of that which already been accquired.

In my opinion, their manipulation of law, which has guaranteed the massive accumulation of wealth has proven far too effective, in short they have outfoxed themselves, and they are suddenly aware of the fact.

The ultimate capital is human labor, and time is the most valuable of possessions, once gone it can never be replaced, thus anything that it is traded for is worth less than the invested time.

As the result of greed, those producing the wealth, world wide, have been massively short changed. While a relatively few are required to work extremely long hours just to maintain an existance in poverty, others are denied even rudamentary employment.

While thus acquiring title to virtually all produced wealth, these parasites, masquarding as human beings, have reduced a profitable work force to a potentially and extremely formidable global army, and time is rapidly approaching critical mass.

Perplexed

HenriPerplexed#474152/4/2001; 15:28:02

If wealth is at risk by a paper crumble...twas not wealth to begin with...but was only an interim gamble to acquire the means to secure wealth
IronHeadPandagold (who chops down the tree) - Your #47393#474162/4/2001; 15:28:29

Sir Pandagold (my favorite bullion coin by the way)

Don't all whom wish to live in a house made from wood, ultimately cause the tree to be chopped down?

And, are our desires merely the tool used as the lever against us by those whom care to manipulate?

Always read and enjoy your "provocation" as "[not] for the purpose of indoctrination" - keep it coming.

Salutations
IronHead

HenriStill Perplexed#474172/4/2001; 15:42:37

You said:
"...The ultimate capital is human labor, and time is the most valuable of possessions, once gone it can never be replaced, thus anything that it is traded for is worth less than the invested time."

Human Labor is the ultimate RESOURCE (from a human perspective).

Time means little outside the paper world. When the paper crumbles, there will still be human resources and time to expend them. This time hopefully on worthwhile endeavors.

What is in jeapordy are time essential representations of accrued gambling tokens that are now issued out of the back room without anyone needing to "buy-in" to the game. Anyone can now join in the game just by going to the back room door and asking for some tokens. The trick is to cash out your winnings for wealth before everyone left in the game figures out that the real chips were cashed in long ago and ...THERE IS NO POT!

IronHeadHenri and Perplexed#474182/4/2001; 15:44:39

Good Sirs - If we in the hinterlands recognize true wealth for what it is, can we doubt for more than a "nano" second that Sir Perplexed's TPTB don't have this road mapped, poured, and ready to drive?
HenriSir IronHead#474192/4/2001; 15:57:27

Yes. But the funny thing is they really don't have to DO anything...just wait for the paper to burn and then bring out a small fraction of their accumulated wealth (Which did not grow but did not burn either) and start a new poker game.
beestingUsing Gold as Collateral!#474202/4/2001; 16:21:09

Ever ask yourself, why has the word collateral recently been omitted from economic discussions in newspapers? I did!

First lets give a dictionary definition of collateral:
"Serving to support or reinforce".(There were many others.)

Now I have seen the phrase,"Gold(or Silver) is a non income producing asset!"
Well lets blow that statement out of the water right now in simple terms!(I just again viewed a video named "The Money Masters", so I'm fired up.)
The video explains in detail how fractional reserve lending works.(For a good explanation see Sirs Aristotle,ORO, or Randy formerly Town Criers, works above.)

Now, lets say you or me had saved the equivalent, in Gold, of a 400 ounce good delivery Gold bar.(Excepted as money worldwide at Central Banks!) and we decided to apply for a bank charter in a small country called Banania.
Using our 400 ounces of Gold as "Collateral" we could lend, with the approval of the local Dept. of Treasury and our Bank Charter, a percentage...in paper dollars...of the dollar value of our Gold.
Lets say the Gold is worth $100,000 an easy round number.
Our charter allows us to lend or borrow 50% of the value of the Gold, in this case $50,000. So we write a check backed by our Gold(an I.O.U.) to the local Central Bank in the amount of $25,000 for the purchase of $25,000 worth of paper or equilivent local "money".
Than, using ""Fractional Reserve Lending",we're in business!
According to the video I just watched we are allowed to "Lend Out" 8 to 10 times our credit line($50,000)including using the cash we just bought from the Central Bank. Lets say we use 9 times. 9 times $50,000 is $450,000.(We also are allowed to take deposits)
So, our bank lends over a period of time $450,000 in safe, secured by good collateral, loans to the local borrowing public.(One of the loans could be to ourselves to build a Bank building.) All figures are for example only.

So now lets see what the assets of our bank are:
1. We still have 400 ounces of Gold valued at $100,000.
2. We now have and hold $450,000 worth of interest bearing loans, hopefully secured by sound collateral.
3. We owe $25,000 to the Central Bank.
4. We also have a secure storage facility and display a sign that states: We Store Gold & Valuables for a Fee!
Here is the math and totals:
Gold value still $100,000 + $450,000 in secured loans = $550,000 minus $25,000 (I.O.U. to CB)=$525,000 total assets of bank. We just made $425,000 for owning outright 400 ounces of Gold!!!
Lets put this on a smaller scale;
I have a few ounces of Gold, and a great idea for a safe business or safe investment but not quite enough cash'so I go to the local coin shop or pawnbroker and ask him to lend me 1/2 the value of my Gold and not sell my Gold for a specified period of time, which he does.As time goes by, I am one of the few that gets real lucky and my business or investment flourishes. I get my Gold out of "Hock" and live happily ever after. The point is "Gold" used as collateral has always had and still does, the potential for producing revenue, just not in the same way as the "paper pushers" are used to!
------------------------------------------------------------
Some trivia:
What do you think California used as collateral for the recent $10,000,000,000.00 loan they obtained by creating an emergency bond without taxpayer approval?
Answer:
The taxpayers of California! Question, wouldn't someone who is involuntarily forced to pay a debt he/she didn't create be a slave?
Involuntary Servitude is specifically prohibited Amendment XIII U.S. Constitution Ratified Dec.6 1865!
*Annual interest on $10,000,000,000 is $600,000,000 at 6% rate. Would you like to have a peice of that pie?
------------------------------------------------------------
More Trivia:
From the video I just watched:
Former President ***Andrew (Stonewall)Jackson(7th U.S.President[1829-1837]),lived in Nashville Tenn. was the only U.S. President in the history of the U.S.to not only balance the Federal budget, he succeeded in closing down the U.S. privately owned Federal Reserve Bank of that time period. Also, the United States has had FOUR Federal Reserve type Banks in it's short history.
*** I think Stonewall meant the same as "Ironhead" a high compliment, in this case.
Thanks for Reading....beesting.

BeowulfNuclear Power#474212/4/2001; 16:22:16

http://www.e-marine-inc.com/products/roofs/shingles.html

Black Blade,
With all the talk of new nuclear plants has anyone studied the situation in uranium and whether there is enough supply? What about uranium mining, hasn't that been on the decline for a while?

Also, you keep refering to solar power as needing large open expanses of land. Have you seen the new advances in solar for home use? Click the link above to see one type of solar roof shingle. Of course there are others available to supply a single home. Along with a solar water heater, compact fluorescent lights, and a super high efficency refrigerator you can pretty much run off grid and never pay state energy taxes again. Some States even offer alternative energy tax deductions depending on what type you install.

You can also do a search of the web for Searl Effects Generator and see what some people are trying to develop. There are many sites available. Below is the main website of the inventor. A generator that runs off natural magnetic forces. This is still in the development stage I think. http://searleffect.com/

Beowulf

slingshotOH! HENRI!#474222/4/2001; 16:29:13

New poker game. msg47419

A new poker game and the HOUSE has a new set of rules?
Those who have gold, and those who do not. I wonder what the wild card would be?
Slingshot

BeowulfNuclear Drops Cost Below Coal#474232/4/2001; 16:38:00

http://www.solaraccess.com/sanews/showstory.asp?id=215&siteid=1021

2/2/01 1:26:57 PM

WASHINGTON, DC - For the first time in more than a decade, production costs at U.S. nuclear power plants are the lowest of any electricity source and have dropped below coal-fired power plants, according to figures from the Utility Data Institute.

In 1999, production costs for fuel, operations and maintenance at nuclear reactors averaged 1.83¢/kWh, lower than coal at 2.07¢ or oil-fired plants at 3.18¢ and natural gas plants at 3.52¢/kWh. In 1998, average production costs for coal plants were 2.07¢ with nuclear at 2.13¢, oil-fired units at 3.24¢ and natural gas plants at 3.3¢/kWh, says UDI. Recent spikes in the price for oil and natural gas are not reflected in these data.

"At a time when the eyes of the nation are on energy prices, nuclear power's re-emergence as the low production-cost leader is a reminder that the United States needs a diverse energy portfolio that relies in no small part on nuclear energy," says Marvin Fertel of the Nuclear Energy Institute. "Electricity consumers of all kinds, as well as state and federal lawmakers, should take notice that nuclear power plants provide tremendous value-economically, environmentally and with regard to reliability, energy security and stable electricity price."

NEI qualifies its claim by limiting its comparison to the "major reliable" sources of electricity, and does not consider renewables to be competitive.

Average production costs at nuclear plants have not been lower than those at coal-fired facilities since the mid-1980s, when safety improvements caused the nuclear industry to lose its long- standing cost advantage.

Production costs do not represent the complete cost of electricity at nuclear reactors, concedes Fertel, but low production costs allow facilities to compete in the market after capital costs, property taxes and other expenses are considered.

"Assuming electricity markets average between 2.5 and 3 cents per kilowatt-hour on a total cost basis, U.S. nuclear power plants already are very competitive," he says. "They are stabilizing the electrical grid and helping to avert brownouts and blackouts, and they are doing so economically and without emitting any pollutants into the atmosphere."

A NEI survey released on January 23 indicates that the energy crisis in California has increased recognition of the value of nuclear power plants across the U.S. Support for building new nuclear reactors has increased in all regions, especially in the west, with 51 percent of participants stating that "we should definitely build more nuclear energy plants in the future," compared to 42 percent last October.


Beowulf - of course not a lot of nuclear engineers are being produced in the U.S. anymore. So who would run the new plants? Most nuclear engineers nowadays are found in the military.

IronHeadSir Henri - Aye and By Golly#474242/4/2001; 16:42:20

Ahoy Captain - You seem to have these waters pretty well charted, and this lowly slipshod on the poop deck agrees on your sightings. A few bergs to be sure a coming.

If I could be so impertinent to ask a question, of your opinion as to how this poker game will play out when {they} DO nothing and start the new game. This I agree will happen verily, but the transitory process during which time paper burns, will have many of us in an old school thought pattern, confused, such that many of our brethren will fold early and scared. Who amongst us won't be turning sail when the {paper} POG goes up 2-3-500%, and summarily is dropped a couple pegs on the mast, thru a slow to die paper manipulation? Who is to say that even a Giant won't sell into a couple rallies, anticipating a top. [No dispersions meant in this towards Sir TG, only an example of the confusion that will allay many of lesser conviction, and staying power, as they see some "giants" moving mountains]

My fear is that we may get exactly what we've surmised as possible, with these paper games, and the new game is going to be as hard to figure as the old game. So often we've talked what should happen, I'm curious what we'll say and do when it has happened. What say ye Matey?

Salutations
IronHead

PS. Great to have you back Sir Henri, aka Bascom Toadvine?

HenriSir Beesting!#474252/4/2001; 16:44:03

Excellant Post...my sentiments exactly. Gold (wealth)should be used to acquire the means to generate additional wealth...it should never just be sold (spent).
PerplexedHenri #474262/4/2001; 16:44:55

You may refer to human labor or time, by what ever term you so desire, but the fact remains when I exchange 10 hr. of my time trimming out a house for a l ounce gold eagle, in my view I have traded capital for capital, and the gold coin is still worth less than which I traded for it.

If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold. Shrouds are fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

While the game may continue, you personally can buy into it only so long as you have life, once you quit breathing, for you the game is over.

You are welcome to think contraily if you so please, however unless you know something that I don't, then you a more
Perplexed than I am.

HenriReef the Mains'l ...aka Bascom... Aye#474272/4/2001; 16:58:50

Think I'd rather be with Nemo and his ilk in the "Nautilus" when the fires burn bright!

Perhaps the "real" PTB's...there be three..can't ye see, (dang! I've been hangin' with that Cobra too long...its contageous)have made this be.

The grand plan to reveal to all the final truth...with no distractions. That man's folly is only his ruination if he thinks it is. Mankind's pursuit of folly has turned to obsession to the detriment of all...an honest day's work is now unknown except but to the very fortunate...they shall inherit the earth.

HenriPerplexed#474282/4/2001; 17:03:47

Aye Perplexed, that well may be. But if that is how you are preparing for the paper storm, you are but one of those who will inherit the earth. May God bless all your endeavors.
goldfan(No Subject)#474292/4/2001; 17:03:52

Peter Asher ON FEEDING LEVIATHAN msg#: 46783)

Thanks for your thoughts...

The way I have come to understand "economics" is that the future situation of the US and those like we Canadians who feed off the US, is the exact opposite to what you describe in your "Feeding Leviathan, msg. 46783". And I welcome the opportunity you have given me to describe why I think this.

1. The M3, the broad money supply, within the US, has now reached $7.2 trillion. This fiat money being borrowed into existence has been increasing at 10% per year, and seems to be accelerating to maybe15% or more.

2. The GNP, a kind of measure of the output of goods and services, has been increasing only at 4% per year, (maybe this statistic is an artifact of the growth in credit, so is overstated) and that is now slowing to 1.5% or maybe zero, or maybe negative.

3. US citizens have meanwhile been using borrowings to buy more than the GNP by something like 4%, or $35 billion per month.

4. US citizens have been saving at a very low, even negative rate.

5. Asset capitalization values in the US have been increasing at much more than the rate into which money has been borrowed into existence. They are now at levels many times the total of the M2 money supply.

So money is being borrowed into existence far faster than goods are being manufactured. Furthermore, the wealth creating manufacturing businesses are being sent offshore, so there is less opportunity to use employment in them to save the money to justify the borrowing.

This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.

As I get it, once the asset bubble is pricked, and stock and bond capitalizations drop, the money does not decrease (the M3 total). It just has a lot less tendency to keep circulating in the paper asset market, inflating that market, and instead begins to circulate in the real goods and real assets market, real estate, gold, oil, tobacco, cars, groceries, etc. This is called, at its worst, hyperinflation.

Hyperinflation is a result of the Central Bank having to flood the collapsing paper asset markets with newly created money in order to keep the banks afloat. Meanwhile, the citizens rapidly spend whatever they can earn or convert from sold assets, into real assets, or real goods, at whatever price. Of course in all this, there will also be the problem of money formerly circulating in stock and bond assets, being converted into purchases of foreign currencies and assets. The $US thus converted do not disappear, they come back to bloat the static markets for goods and services.

New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation. They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real stuff into higher prices.

Consider the limiting case. What would happen if all mortgage loans were defaulted (0 interest rate)? In default the money itself doesn't disappear. Default just sets the money free without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money. It means higher prices, unless one can show that productive wealth creating businesses are being built with that money, which they manifestly are not, in the US today.

In sum,
the diner ( in the Goods and Services and Real Estate restaurant) says, "I think I'll have the hyperinflation"

the Waiter, "very good choice sir, we have plenty of fresh ingredients for that, $7.2 trillion of indestructible money supply growing exponentially, no productive businesses to leave it invested in, no supply of sufficiently educated people to work the businesses if we did have them. Our competitor, the stock and bond market restaurant, is getting fewer and fewer customers, all their money is coming over here."


With humble and appreciative acknowledgements to ORO and others here at USAgold, and others, including Doug Noland at prudentbear.com, and Ed Bugos at safehaven.com. Any mistakes here are mine, I'm sure, not theirs.

I'd welcome corrections and comments.

FWIW

Goldfan

Peter AsherPerplexed (2/4/2001; 16:44:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 47426)#474302/4/2001; 17:15:42

Capitol or resource depends on the viewpoint.
Henri, who's posts today are excellent in the laying out of exploitation of man's labor, naturally sees that labor as a resource. This is the view of the exploiters he is warning about.

Perplexed sees Man's labor as a product rendered, ultimately by choice, by the individual. --- Bravo Perplexed!

Individual power will derive from one seeing his labor as Capital and that those who wish it as a resource should either negotiate or prepare to fight!




Henri


You may refer to human labor or time, by what ever term you so desire, but the fact remains
when I exchange 10 hr. of my time trimming out a house for a l ounce gold eagle, in my view I
have traded capital for capital, and the gold coin is still worth less than which I traded for it.

If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold.
Shrouds are fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

While the game may continue, you personally can buy into it only so long as you have life, once
you quit breathing, for you the game is over.

You are welcome to think contrarily if you so please, however unless you know something that I
don't, then you a more
Perplexed than I am.

CoBra(too)Sir Henri ...#474312/4/2001; 17:26:39

As you've stated your post 47277 is not Gold HoF material, I would concur. This message of your's deserves a lot more recognition ... and it has found it and will be present on the forum. Thank you so much for bringing this topic so eloquently back to our minds, as we all need this reminder of humanity, reality and compassion more than a free trading POG in a conflct of disturbing interests.

Since it'[s getting late, I probably should leave it at that. Though, I don't know when I get a chance to post again I'd like to folow up on Perplexed time factor, by quoting some thoughts from the "Privateer" on the subject:
Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.
- Money is simply the means (medium) of exchange, where all goods and services are exchanged - today, I would say!
This sets up 3 main categories of economic goods; Capital goods, Services and Money, though there is a 4th. economic good - TIME, a factor not discussed in this pretext!". ... And as all is equal, I personally feel, Time ... is probably the most relevant factor in above equation - ... labor, credit, debit as seen today is mostly a function of time - like minimum hourly wages, credit dues, futures or options delivery prices or targets ... Only the (un-)timely advent of derivative markets, originally construed as a hedge for future price uncertainties for participants of the real economy and their credit institutions, servicing these needs, have become an artificial economy, way bigger than the underlying reality. And as it seems the same credit institutions, serving the economy, found themselves in competition with the "GE's" and others - and here I have to state GSE's or A's (Gov. Subsidized Entities or Agencies)- creaming off the top. ... G.W.B. may have a lot of fun to entangle this web ...

Which gets me to Pandagold's latest "cliche': " Oh, what a spangled flag we wave, when first we dared to leave the cave!" ... The good ship "HMS Agenda", dubbed the unsinkable, has again left most passengers of the lower decks stranded, due to the shortage of life-boats ...
... Sorry, I meant you guy's should make up your minds to
effectively join the Union - or go ahead? to contemplate your history of late (pretty close to our fate)- may I say mate? - cb2

PS: Man - J! "Illegal Tender" - Bill Buckler exlains it better than ever would, could or should - best cb2





-

Tree in the ForestIronHead#474322/4/2001; 17:32:32

Yes I have been a two wheeler myself though not currently unfortunately. Love those Yamahas. I had a XS650 Special back in the 80's and it was the best bike I ever had. Particularly memorable were the Midnight Special series. When I first saw on of these, I was blown away. What can you say about a gold motorcycle? Are these guys beautiful or what? I love gold!
A Japanese wife sounds great. I've heard that Japanese women make the best wives. I'm jealous! As I've said before on this board, I don't think gold will move til there's a war, unfortunately. The politicos have no other way of explaining what is about to happen to the sheeple. Otherwise they would have to tell people the truth about fiat and then they couldn't continue to take advantage of us. That would make them sad and we wouldn't want our politicians to be sad now would we?

Peter Ashergoldfan msg#: 47429)#474332/4/2001; 17:51:27

Many thanks for the extensive reply

Much of it gets into the "Dollars coming home to roost" aspect, on which I am still cramming under the tutelage of "The Wright Brothers Flight Instructor."

Your post is a lean and clean rundown on the "Levithan" dilemma and I will peruse it at great length.

For the moment, re your >>> This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.<<<

Referring again to my HOFer "There is no such thing as money in the market." Money does not circulate IN the stock, bond, and mortgage markets., it circulates through them The only absorption that occurs is the time delay in wealth transfer recordings that renders the money momentarily un-spendable. Absent that, money is always in someone's hands, poised to purchase goods for consumption, productive resource or tool-up.

Re- >>>
New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.
They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real
stuff into higher prices. <<<

I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist.

Simultaneously, the credit expansion having gone where no loans had gone before, tapped out at 125% mortgages and lending criteria that expanded to where there probably wasn't a sane underwriter left on earth. That flow too is no longer in play. Therefore: My view is that these flows must be replaced and that the lowering of interest rates will perform that function rather then expand or inflate the economy.

Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation. I have maintained that the exact cause of price inflation is the "power to command price" by whatever means that power can be obtained. The "Textbook" claim that this power derives from "too much money chasing too few goods" is simplistic, misleading and out of context to the whole.

Now, if ALL increased Money Supply were loaned to consumers to purchase EXISTING Goods that would be true. But economics is NOT a static event. Price direction will be determined by the net differential resulting from the effects of all outstanding supply and demand factors. ---

So, a multiplicity of causes and effects are constantly in play and the resultant creates the price direction. What appears to happen is that a particular excess is observed to have taken place and is then assigned as the "Cause : of some phenomena that is synonymous to the excess. A perfect example is Mundell's claim that European money flooding into our stock market created our economic boom. (Europeans ‘invested "purchasing rights" are transferred to American stockhlders to spend.) Now, he may have concluded that without that inflow we wouldn't have had the boom but the boom was a result of the summation of ‘all' the factors. It was also created by the !00-125% mortgages, but those were not ‘the' cause either. If the Government had locked the doors of Microsoft and the economy crashed, would that have "Caused"it, or simply altered the balance enough to offset positive flows existent at that moment? <<<<

JourneymanIllusion's lifetime @Old Yeller msg#: 47384#474342/4/2001; 17:53:32

"How long can the illusion of budget surpluses and debt paydowns be maintained?" -Old Yeller msg#: 47384

As long as enough of the players continue to act as if they believe that the _other_ players are buying the illusion.

Regards,
Journeyman

PandagoldIronhead; Perplexed; Peter Asher#474352/4/2001; 17:59:13

Thanks for your comments. I had prepared a more detailed posting to address the various comments - nothing nasty - just enlarging on the theme. However, just as I was about to post my computer informed me I had just performed an illegal act ( to which I thought, and I haven't even posted it yet). These guys must have eyes everywhere.
(catch you later)

My screen froze, couldn't even log off normally by closing out windows so had to switch off the machine and lost everything.

Please don't anyone tell me I should save as I go along. I erred

But I would appreciate anyone telling me why it has to tell you youv'e performed an illegal act.

I expected a squeal of brakes and men in long black coats and dark sun glasses beating my door down any minute.

Well, when guys like Christian suddenly disappear of the air, it gets you worried.

So if anyone can ease my mind and find a less frightening reason why the dramatic phrase - illegal act. I will be eternally grateful

Thanks again

PerplexedGoldfan 347429--Peter Asher#474362/4/2001; 18:30:23

Thanks for the post Goldfan

I too have been studying Peters post when I have had the time. I have now copied both; yours will give me a comparision.

Until recently I have a little exposure to the mechanics of finance, so it is taking me out of my common realm of thought.

It was considered a trueism several years ago, that the only entity responsible for inflation (being a net consumer rather than a producer of wealth) was government.

I have had a major problem accepting the fact that inflation has not existed to any appreciable degree for the last 20 years, as I have observed an ever increasing mountain of debt.

To my apparantly infantile mind, (our "public servants" view) the debt is nothing more than taxes which are not being levied upon the current population to pay the total cost of government.

Jimmy Carter was denied another term as President as the result of funding too much of the expense, a policy which offered merely a glimpse of reality.

Reagan did nothing more than again hide the true cost with additional debt, with the unwavering support of Congress.

I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1. Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?

I'll have more questions once I absorbe some more of your information.

I have deeply appreciated the effort of every poster on the panel toward my education.

Peter Asherbeesting msg#: 47420)#474372/4/2001; 18:48:15

Where you said :
>>>> using ""Fractional Reserve Lending",we're in business! According to the video I just watched we are allowed to "Lend Out" 8 to 10 times our credit line($50,000)including using the cash we just bought from the Central Bank. Lets say we use 9 times. 9 times $50,000 is $450,000.
1. We still have 400 ounces of Gold valued at $100,000.
2. We now have and hold $450,000 worth of interest bearing loans, hopefully secured by sound
collateral.
3. We owe $25,000 to the Central Bank.<<<<

My understanding (To which I am willing to accept correction) is that you could lend out 8 to10 times your DEPOSITS from customers, but that all the additional money you issue must be borrowed from the cental bank at the ‘wholesale' rate and your gross profit is only the additional ‘retail' amount of interest you can obtain beyond that. I imagine you could leverage a gold deposit to the CB likewise, but I still think you would be paying the CB the "Fed Funds" rate on every dollar loaned out to you costumers.

goldfanPeter Asher more hyperinflatio stuff#474382/4/2001; 18:57:02

Peter Asher re your message 47171 which I just rediscovered:

>>>>>You said (Peter Asher (02/02/01; 00:04:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 47171))
Randy (@ The Tower) (01/31/01; 17:05:38MT msg#: 47046)

I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."<<<<

Isn't this the same as more money chasing fewer goods? ORO wrote a piece awhile back supporting this idea of the effect of inflation.

>>>>Global trade is the giant sponge that absorbs Big Float, easily relieving any price pressure on the home economy. <<<<

The scenario is that a drastic fall in the US $ index will make the US domestic price of foreign shoes, clothes, automobiles, and oil skyrocket. And the US imports 50 % of its oil and 50% of its goods and food. So when no one really needs to buy US goods to pay off their debts anymore, and US citizens cannot afford half of what they need for survival at present consumption levels, prices of what they can manufacture will skyrocket too. Eventually, higher domestic prices will cause domestic investment and manufacture, but it will take a lot of time and lot of suffering first, Maybe there will be a cry for dictatorship first.

>>>If inflating the money supply ‘caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! <<<<

No, because the borrowed into existence excess money has not been spent in the goods and services restaurant, it has has been spent in the stocks and bonds restaurant. When this closes up due to food poisoning of its patrons, they will be desperate to pay any amount to get into the goods and services and real assets restaurant.<<<


>>> I suspect that there is a vast quantity of economic activity that does not show up in the record keeping but nevertheless ‘uses' its proportion of the money supply to carry on.<<<<

The underground economy will inflate its way out of paper money too, maybe into tobacco, or prozac.

The Tower said Re- >>>As I have said many times before, the view from The Tower is one of a deflation in dollars in the global scale as the use is replaced by Euros and alternatives. However, as the dollar falls out of favor in international use, we see ample ingredients for domestic (within America's borders) hyperinflation of supply and prices as the Fed moves to liquidate the grinding banking sector from within, or even as the deflating global supply is sent packing...all into its original "tiny" home.<<<

>>>What is there in "Feeding Leviathan" that you see as not occurring?.

Just HOW do these dollars come home to roost? <<<<

The currency traders abandon US$, either on their own account, or on account of customers. This means they sell the $ for whatever they can get for them in other currencies or gold. The $ don't disappear, they get deposited in the US bank accounts of the purchasers (the bank is obligated to accept these deposits, no matter how little they are "worth". From whence they are quickly converted into real goods and services and real assets, at very inflated prices.

>>>As to specifics, I see local gasoline today @ $1.45.9 down 18% from recent highs and I read Monday that Sabena and Swissair slashed ‘over the pond' fares on 11 routes. Anecdotal, of course, but so are the tales of what costs more at the moment. It is the summation of all prices, properly weighted by dollar market share that would give us the true state of the ‘flation situation. This is the main thrust in " Leviathan." That at best, a balance of price movement will occur as lower debt service costs offset the purchasing power lost.<<<

Present cost cutting to preserve market share will turn into fallen profits, layoffs, and debt defaults. These will accellerate the flight out of the $, but not reduce the size of the "big float".

I think you are missing the chaos element that will occur when the $US index drops to .25 or less. It will not be difficult to measure the inflation, it will be obvious every few days in your favorite restaurant. Lower debt service costs will just be serving to pump vastly greater quantities of money into the system, borrowed by huge corporations mostly, who will use it to expand their ownership, wipe out their debt because of the drop in purchasing power, and wind up owning everything the way they did in Germany. Then will follow the street gangs, the police squads,and the dictators to quell the riots and get the trains running gain. ... I don't want it, but I fear this is it.

>>>We are backing down from an artificial affluence that robbed tomorrow to pay for today. If this economy is very much dependent on the purchasing power of the holders of debt instruments, then it is TOAST!<<<

I agree, this will be the outcome. BURNT toast. Backing down from artificial affluence means, exactly, killing the purchsing power of any debt instrument of today, all paper $denominated contracts to become wallpaper.

Finally, Re- >>> You see, the Euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<

I agree with ORO saying the Euro won't be any more attractive than the $US when this $ crash scenario occurs. What is there in the European or Asian scene that creates any trust in any fiat anywhere in the world, when the US empire has just collapsed???

all FWIW
I've enjoyed the opportunity you gave me to examine my understanding of this stuff.

Goldfan

Peter AsherPerplexed#474392/4/2001; 19:03:25

Re >>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1.Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

Cb2 just posted the following >>>> from "Privateer" on the subject: Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.<<<<

So I would say production (fiat acquired) in excess of consumption (fiat parted with) by a borrower, who then chooses that excess to pay down debt.

Peter Ashergoldfan msg#: 47438)#474402/4/2001; 19:22:58

Re-my ### You see, the euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.###

The comma after You see was a typo. Thanks for inadvertently finding it. (It was Randy you were contrasting with ORO)

For my stand on the Euro, refer to the paragraph that followed.

What are the mechanics that would cause this?. Your North star is my Southern Cross (Headed South). To date, the Euro exchange rate is 20% below the rate at inception. I have, from the start, declared the Euro a weak cousin to the dollar. I indicated that the strength of the Mark and SF would be diluted by the Lire and Peso and then later stressed the further weakening that will occur as former Soviet satellite nations, complete with massive environmental liabilities, are enfolded into the Union. Imagine how the dollar would be valued if we added the economy of Mexico into it's domestic quantum.

Back to reading your last post. P.

David LinkleyWhat if#474412/4/2001; 19:29:23

the Cabal were really a computer located somewhere near the corner of Broad and Wall in downtown Manhattan?
Peter AsherGoldfan, correction#474422/4/2001; 19:30:28

Whew, thinks are moving fast here

The error of mine was leaving out the word 'your' as in:

Finally, Re-YOUR (Randy's)>>> You see, the Euro model is the North Star toward which our legacy dollar-system now lurches to realign, else be forever adrift like the odd man out in an overloaded life raft.<<<

Peter AsherDavid Linkley msg#: 47441)#474432/4/2001; 19:35:49

They couldn't be that stupid.

If I were in on it, I'd have the monster at the deepest level of Cheyenne montain

ChristianThe words posted that have gotten me into trouble.#474442/4/2001; 19:53:12

Commodity gold price $270 Trade settlement gold at BIS $526 (presently $540) Credit creation gold $3000 (presently $2,700.- averages around ten times commodity price). All money is debt money. There is no other source of money except to borrow it into existence. The bottom line is that debt cannot be paid off with debt, and debt generates no income that isn't offset by more debt. - The Fed makes possible the U.S.Government's ability to print money by issuing Treasury Bonds and subseqently pawning the paper off on naive domestic and international investors.-- Kreieren Undergang (Creative Destruction) by Alan _reenspan. ....somebody in Europe translated some of my posts at Gold Eagle on some European Forum. There was even an article about one of my posts in the Schweizerishe Landwirtshaftliche Zeitschrift. I can post anything I want as long as it is bullshit- pro or con. I can not post anything against Bush Sr., or anything about all of the presidents cabinet having past or present connections to Monsanto. I can not post where the additive MPC in Cheez Whiz comes from or what it is. I can not say that anti fly powder or oil placed on a cow's back and head is absorbed and forms prions when compined with copper or maganese in the brain and turns it into __________ with holes. I can not say that most farm chemical spray's have the maganese additive in it that will stay in the ground for at least 20 years. I can not say that the mineral salt mixture fed to lifestock with the poison to kill flies (marple fly) also destroys the animals nervous system. I can not say that U.S.downer cows end up in school lunches. I can not say that E-coli trated cows treated with poliotic or vetisulid make up 30% of all cows slaughtered. I have to come up with proof on my Chemtrail so called theory. I mailed that yesterday.
SHIFTYPeriodic Ponzi Update#474452/4/2001; 19:53:37

Nasdaq 2,660.50 + Dow 10,864.10 = 13,524.60 divide by 2 = 6,762.30 Ponzi

up 41.66 from last week.

Up four weeks in a row.
Where do they think they are going ?

$hifty

Peter Ashergoldfan msg#: 47438)#474462/4/2001; 20:04:49

You quoted my >>> I think the Leviathan post (01/28/01 #46783) is pretty clear about referring to domestic PRICE inflation. Nevertheless, "for best clarity" how about using Webster's New World Dictionary ---2 a) an increase in the amount of money and credit in relation to the supply of goods and services b) an increase in the general price level, resulting from this."<<<<

To which you said ### isn't this the same as more money chasing fewer goods? ORO wrote a piece awhile back supporting this idea of the effect of inflation.####

My above was followed in that post by >>> Defining inflation in the context of the money supply comes from a time when economies were more centralized to their specific nation. Even though the dictionary gives equal weight to either use, it still perpetuates the now archaic cause and effect equation<<<<

You quote my >>>If inflating the money supply ‘caused' inflation the last few years would have been record breakers! <<<<

and say ##### No, because the borrowed into existence excess money has not been spent in the goods and services restaurant, it has been spent in the stocks and bonds restaurant.####

Again! It hasn't been "Spent" in the market. It changes hands in return for paper securities. It simply allows Joe to spend Harry's money.

#####The underground economy will inflate its way out of paper money too, maybe into tobacco, or prozac. #####

Why more now or later, then before??

######Present cost cutting to preserve market share will turn into fallen profits, layoffs, and debt
defaults. These will accelerate the flight out of the $, but not reduce the size of the "big float" ####.

Correct. But "fallen profits, layoffs and debt defaults" are hardly inflationary. A flight "Out of the dollar" will reduce it's purchasing power of imports, creating a slump effect overseas. My point in the *Quantitative* analysis, is that our increased ability to export due to this shift will only help us offset the reduced demand from the diminished credit, and market transfer supported, activities at home.

Going back now to your first post. This is hectic but a good flogger of stalled thought processes. Keep it up!

Hill Billy MitchellPerplexed @ # 47426#474472/4/2001; 20:56:06

Sir

Please pardon my butting in. Something occurred to me which neither adds nor detracts from your point. It was just an interesting thought which came to me: If you only had 10 hours to live I doubt that you would spend it in any type of temporal income producing capacity. Please take no offence. It just seemed to be an apples and oranges sort of thing.

Very respectfully,

HBM

SHIFTYAll that glitters is gold #474482/4/2001; 21:11:18

http://www.timesofindia.com/today/05busi28.htm

All that glitters is gold
By Jacob Kurien

If you ask a chartered accountant whether it's wise to invest in gold, he is not going to recommend it. Gold over the years hasn't seen any big appreciation, and speculation is almost nil. You don't have the fluctuations of a stock market or a real estate property in this investment.

Infact the price has been more stable - neither has it gone up in a big way nor has it come down. Particularly after the duty reduction, the price has been more or less stagnant.

But that hasn't stopped all of us from investing in gold. What drives the demand for the yellow metal?

The biggest factor in its favour is the liquidity. If you want to turn your investment into cash quickly, gold is the best alternative. I can't think of any other commodity which can give you this kind of liquidity.

Our culture, religion seems to have taken note of this factor! Over the years, gold has become a social fabric. Our tradition has made it sure that we buy gold on auspicious occasions. You have to give gold for marriages and every woman thinks of this investment, for herself, for her daughter.

Naturally, the market is huge. The demand is estimated to be around 600 tonnes and even the supply hasn't been a deterrent. If you convert that into value, Indian gold market is worth around Rs 35,000-40,000 crore.

But the huge market has been operating without much standardisation and more on trust. We are the only player with a national presence and our focus has been on the design and quality. We have been targeting the young woman who wants to look different from her mother.

Are people looking beyond gold? You have platinum but a few section of the society is investing in this metal. I personally think, if you have surplus gold in your kitty, you should go in for platinum. Right now critical mass is not there for this metal. But the biggest advantage for the buyers here is the price. It is atleast one third or one fourth of the international price. And the scope for appreciation right now looks better.

(The author is the COO at Tanishq)

Peter AsherBack to goldfan msg#: 47429)#474492/4/2001; 21:11:42

Re>>> New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.<<<<

I certainly hope not, in order to stave off disaster, the money supply must at minimum be held in place. The existing activity is dependant on it. It might be more accurate to say that the supply and activity are interdependent. Beyond that, dollars that, on balance, come home in lesser quantities, would need a replacement via newly loaned money to keep the status quo. This is a big part of the :Tiger by the tail" phenomena. Also this relates to>>>Hyperinflation is a result of the Central Bank having to flood the collapsing paper asset markets with newly created money in order to keep the banks afloat.<<< If bolstering the collapse only replaces a lost flow, there is no inflationary effect.

In answer to your >>>>>Consider the limiting case. What would happen if all mortgage loans were defaulted (0 interest rate)? In default the money itself doesn't disappear. Default just sets the money free without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money. It means higher prices, unless one can show that productive wealth creating businesses are being built with that money, which they manifestly are not, in the US today. <<<

Default does not set" *the* money free" (without repayment need or interest rate drag competing for goods, for the use of that money.) Default permits debtors to do something else with newly acquired money instead of passing it over to the debtees! The holders of debt paper no longer receive their piece of the money supply to spend, and simultaneously, their debtors now gain it to do so --- Definitively a zero-sum wealth transfer.

What I am expounding on in my recent posts is the proposition that the potential inflationary effect of the current interest rate cuts, is less then the potential deflationary effects resulting from the loss of the input of the "Spend With Abandon" spree.

beestingPeter Asher # 47437 Ref beesting msg # 47420. #474502/4/2001; 21:12:00

http://www.themoneymasters.com/

Hi Peter, part of your post:

<<My understanding (To which I am willing to accept correction) is that you could lend out 8 to10 times your DEPOSITS from customers>>

Peter, I truthfully don't have the answer to that. The person in the video didn't distinguish. However I do have a close friend I've known for over 40 years that is a loan officer in a bank back east that specializes in home mortgage loans, if we don't get the answer here, I will ask her.
Just some of my thoughts are:
With the U.S. savings rate at near zero, because of low interest rates paid to depositors it would seem the local banks would have to use mortgages and other debt instruments
as their collateral for other loans to stay in the lending business.

I just found the link above so haven't checked it out yet, but they are the people who made the video "The Money Masters". If I get some time I hope to post more of their ideas. One thing they said in the film was,"the U.S. could get out from under the grips of the Central Banking system by issuing unbacked paper money FROM the U.S. Treasury over a 2 year period to buy back all the debt held by The Federal Reserve System, and in a slow process back the local banks by money issued directly from the Treasury."
The flaw I see right away with that is, how do we trade with other countries? I would say, Gold has to enter the equation somewhere.
Thanks for responding...beesting.

SHIFTY'Gold is a low risk portfolio diversifier' #474512/4/2001; 21:13:27

http://www.timesofindia.com/today/05busi30.htm

'Gold is a low risk portfolio diversifier'
By Srikala B

When was it last time you bought gold? Can't remember? You must have been buying it too often to keep note of it!

Most Indians have this habit. Buying gold regularly. It doesn't matter whether this investment is appreciating or giving good returns. This commodity is a must for everyone's portfolio. Why?

``It's a must in every portfolio. It is a low risk portfolio diversifier,'' says Mr Derrick Machado, Regional Director, World Gold Council.

``The liquidity of this investment is too comforting,'' adds Jacob Kurian, COO, Tanishq. Compare it with any other investment like real estate, stocks, mutual fund, fixed deposits and gold is a clear winner. And mind you, it is accepted anywhere in the world, without much hassle.

Indians seem to be quick to realise gold's investment potential, years ago. Our ancestors have made it a must in the purchase list for all auspicious occasions. Even today, jewellery is a must for every Indian family, irrespective of the affordability factor. That explains why the demand for gold is on the rise continuously.

The industry estimates the total demand in circulation to be around 600-800 tonnes. The domestic production being a couple of tonnes, a good amount of gold is imported liberally. Infact, the weakening rupee too has added its mite to gold smuggling business. The demand is not just from the womenfolk for jewellery but even from investors. What is surprising is nearly 60 per cent of gold buying has been for the sake of investment!

As Kurian says, for a hardcore investment manager, this may not make a sound investment sense. If you look at the gold price movement over the years, the fluctuation is not breath-taking. But that hasn't stopped the demand growth. It has only helped the price to move up gradually.

It is a different story if you look at diamond. This hard stone is giving better returns and is moving up the priceline much faster than the yellow metal.

Even Mr Umesh, Jt.Managing Director, Ganjam Nagappa & Sons, agrees. ``The demand for diamond is on the rise thanks to the growing purchasing power of the middle class and the diamond base in the country has gone up to Rs 5000 crore,'' he says.

It may not be big compared to gold's Rs 40,000 crore but liquidity factor of diamond is driving the investors to take a good look at it. And again that safety factor is there.

``The return from the stock market no doubt is fascinating. But a market crash can bring down the value of your asset or can even erode it,'' says Umesh.

The safety factor of diamond like gold too has brought in fresh buyers to the market place. It isn't anymore the case of a lady buying diamond because she got influenced by a DeBeers ad. Even the traders and investors are walking into the market place. There are no hard figures available to substantiate the trend but the industry puts the investment ratio at 60%. In addition, the diamond industry on the whole is recording a smart growth of 25-30%, annually.

But that figure could change in the coming days. The Guajarat earth is not only going to have a dampening effect on the diamond trade but also on gold too. World Gold Council expects that people in Gujarat will sell their gold and diamond as a last resort to rebuild their lives. But that could also enhance the faith of the Indians in its investment potential

MarkChristian, you are brilliant!#474522/4/2001; 21:24:08

I used to read your posts on GE and miss them very much. please continue to post here. how is your farm going?
is it okay to post your chemtrail theory proof here? i'm glad you're okay.

goldfanPeter Asher more and more#474532/4/2001; 22:39:20

Peter Asher msg#: 47439 to
Perplexed

Re >>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1.Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

Cb2 just posted the following >>>> from "Privateer" on the subject: Credit simply means the exchange of present goods for future goods.<<<<

>>>So I would say production (fiat acquired) in excess of consumption (fiat parted with) by a borrower, who then chooses that excess to pay down debt.<<<<

Me... debt is satisfied.. what does this mean? I say it means, ultimately, settlement, which means exchange of goods and services, the money is just an intermediary, until the goods or services are exchanged there is no settlement. Ie, if I use fiat money I've borrowed to "buy" some goods, then no settlement occurs, until the person from whom I've purchased is able to get the personal use of my labour in return, or of some of my labour I've saved as an "investment", and now sold, and spent the sale proceeds into the market, or I've saved some of the proceeds of my labour, and used that to pay off the debt.



Peter Asher msg#: 47433) to
goldfan msg#: 47429)

>>>For the moment, re your >>> This will eventually be called "too much money chasing too few goods", and the only reason it hasn't yet produced massive inflation in real goods and services, is that it has all been circulating, so far, in the stock and bond and mortgage markets.<<<

Referring again to my HOFer "There is no such thing as money in the market." Money does not circulate IN the stock, bond, and mortgage markets., it circulates through them The only absorption that occurs is the time delay in wealth transfer recordings that renders the money momentarily un-spendable. Absent that, money is always in someone's hands, poised to purchase goods for consumption, productive resource or tool-up.<<<

me. I guess I don't agree. Money that goes from cheque to cheque, from computerized bank account to account, is circulating in my parlance. Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!)

The money stock at any moment, M2 or M3, or whatever, it seems a bit elusive, is capable of ballooning any asset valuation to far beyond the total of the money stock. I buy one share and ten others are recorded as having gone "up in value" though they never traded. Last year, the money stock available in the US passed through 12 trillion of GDP and 36 trillion of stocks. The only reason the valuation on the GDP was so low, was that a lot more money energy was directed at stocks. Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption. M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.

Another way to say this. If $7.2 trillion of money supply can create activity of $12 trillion in GDP and $36 trillion in stocks, what would be the effect on GDP valuations (not quantities) if the circulation in stocks had been at the normal pace of say $3 trillion. Doesn't this leave an extra $33 trillion of buying pressure to go onto GDP?

>>>>Re- >>>
New loans at lower interest rates, replacing old loans, don't reduce the money in circulation.
They just reduce the interest rate drag on that money, and make it available to chase existing real
stuff into higher prices. <<<

I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist. <<<<

What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or deflations in asset prices.I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.

Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again. I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets. This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. This can only mean that the purchasing power of the present money supply has to drop sharply (read prices of goods and services and labor have to greatly increase) in order that the promissory notes by which the money was created can be paid off with devalued currency. I guess that allowing a lot of bank failures, including the central bank, through a run on the banks, would reduce the money supply!!! But that will not be allowed to happen.

The outcome of the hyper inflation, since it will destroy the purchasing power of the currency, and bring economic activity to a halt, will be that a new money, in much reduced supply, will be created. This is the deflation. Unless it is gold, probably no one will want it, maybe even gold won't work for a while. How could the Russion economy function even as poorly as now without the US dollar? Well they're going to get to try that experiment.

>>>Simultaneously, the credit expansion having gone where no loans had gone before, tapped out at 125% mortgages and lending criteria that expanded to where there probably wasn't a sane underwriter left on earth. That flow too is no longer in play. Therefore: My view is that these flows must be replaced and that the lowering of interest rates will perform that function rather then expand or inflate the economy.<<<

Doesn't the data show that mortgage financings are increasing, as are house prices? Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default (the california fiasco etc. ).
To me you are confusing the word flows with the recorded stock at one instant. There is nothing to stop the banksters from valuing houses upward in order to justify creating more money to supply higher mortgages and thus gain increased money flows on even lower interest rates. How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings". The banks though, will need to compensate somehow from the increasing rate of default on their former loans, as the economy goes into recession from lack of consumer spending. And from reduced consumption due to higher prices. Defaults require the sale of assets at a 20X ration, further accelerating the downdraft in markets, further accelerating the perception of lost wealth. But lost paper wealth is not lost money supply.
And since fewer goods are being manufactured when the economy is contracting, and the money supply is staying constant or even increasing as banks are being bailed out, and real estate loans are increasing, and lousy businesses are being kept alive in order to keep them from becoming bad debts on the books of the banks, ( The Greenspan answer to the problems created by excess credit is to provide more credit!!) hyperinflation is on the way.

>>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets.

>>>I have maintained that the exact cause of price inflation is the "power to command price" by whatever means that power can be obtained. The "Textbook" claim that this power derives from "too much money chasing too few goods" is simplistic, misleading and out of context to the whole.<<<<
Sorry, I just can't seem to make sense of what you've said next. Maybe you could comment on what I've said, that if the M3 were to be passed through goods and services on a daily basis, instead of most of it going through stocks and bonds, we would have a terrific price inflation.
>>>>Now, if ALL increased Money Supply were loaned to consumers to purchase EXISTING Goods that would be true. But economics is NOT a static event. Price direction will be determined by the net differential resulting from the effects of all outstanding supply and demand factors. ---

So, a multiplicity of causes and effects are constantly in play and the resultant creates the price direction. What appears to happen is that a particular excess is observed to have taken place and is then assigned as the "Cause : of some phenomena that is synonymous to the excess. A perfect example is Mundell's claim that European money flooding into our stock market created our economic boom. (Europeans ‘invested "purchasing rights" are transferred to American stockhlders to spend.) Now, he may have concluded that without that inflow we wouldn't have had the boom but the boom was a result of the summation of ‘all' the factors. It was also created by the !00-125% mortgages, but those were not ‘the' cause either. If the Government had locked the doors of Microsoft and the economy crashed, would that have "Caused"it, or simply altered the balance enough to offset positive flows existent at that moment? <<<<

Thanks for the dialogue

Goldfan

TopazPandagold#474542/4/2001; 23:10:38

Well Sir, this time you've done it! An - illegal operation - "off with your head" <wink>
If using Win98, this appears all too frequently and may be overcome by re-loading the OS from the disc. (sometimes a new machine with the OS pre-installed can be the cause)
My (limited) experience has led me to use Win95 on the "on-line" machine and '98 on the (newer) off-line gadget.
If I may say, the new, less raspy Panda was a pleasant read this evening, keep it up!

Mr GreshamChristian#474552/4/2001; 23:12:44

"I can not post anything against Bush Sr., or anything about all of the presidents cabinet having past or present connections to Monsanto. I can not post where the additive MPC in Cheez Whiz comes from or what it is. I can not say that anti fly powder or oil placed on a cow's back and head is absorbed and forms prions when compined with copper or maganese in the brain and turns it into __________ with holes. I can not say that most farm chemical spray's have the maganese additive in it that will stay in the ground for at least 20 years. "

But isn't that our beloved Free Market system at work? Unfettered capitalism will allow educated consumers to choose with their {fiats of choice} and so dangerous commercial products will prove unprofitable in the marketplace. Externalities? I don't see no steenking externalities!

Mr GreshamOh, a late night Nuclear BTW#4745602/04/01; 23:21:03

BTW, what if they spent a hundred years trying to decode the hieroglyphics in and around the pyramids of Egypt, and finally cracked the code this year, and it said:

"HAZARDOUS NUCLEAR WASTE UNDERGROUND STORAGE SITE. Date: Ramses II, Year 34. DO NOT DISTURB! Radioactive half-life: 25,000 years. Recommend no habitations 50 miles for at least 50,000 years."

But those Pharaohs sure had a party while it lasted, huh?

C'mon gang. DTFM. Do the *** Math.

Mr GreshamContrary Investor#4745702/04/01; 23:57:29

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

The new format: monthly is free, weekly by subscription (worth it, IMO, but you know my weakness for good writing fun and games.)
ETgoldfan, Peter#4745802/05/01; 00:21:53

Hey goldfan - a couple of great posts! I suspect the old Fed is up to its ears right now in exactly what you describe. Those bad loans are coming back to bite. I think they're losing the battle as the money supply figures show.

Hey Peter - I think perhaps you have confused money supply inflation with goods and services price inflation. Money supply inflation has been ongoing and has manifested itself in assets for the most part. Money supply inflation can manifest itself as goods and services price inflation but in the case of the US this has been muted for several reasons as described by goldfan and ORO. This is the reason that it is important to describe the terms we use exactly. goldfan is correct in describing inflation as money supply creation and deflation as money supply destruction. Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomenon. Some might say we are in the midst of a hyperinflation in the US money supply as we speak. As you note, it hasn't manifested itself yet in goods and services price inflation, but in asset prices. It remains a hyperinflation nevertheless as money supply is increasing at faster and faster rates of growth.

Stay tuned, I'm sure we will see the day when the hyperinflation settles into everyday items other than energy.

ETAnn Coulter#4745902/05/01; 00:30:11

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/anncoulter/ac20010202.shtml

From the article;

"This just in: price controls
cause shortages

"Another 'Dog Bites Man'
story has once again taken
the American press corps by
surprise.

"California's electricity crisis is
treated in the media as if it were
some sort of natural disaster, like a
hurricane. But the only fact of nature
operating here is the hard-and-fast
rule that whenever you come across
a screw-up this big, you know the
government is behind it.

"The California Legislature created
this problem about five years ago
when it deregulated the wholesale
market for electricity but fixed prices
at the retail level, a policy that has
made Cuba the happy, prosperous
country that it is today."

SHIFTYMajor World Indices#4746002/05/01; 01:00:34

http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

Asia/Pacific

China Shanghai Composite ^SSEC 2:00AM 2008.032 -57.574
-2.79%

Japan Nikkei 225 ^N225 1:00AM 13385.52 -318.11 -2.32%

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted ^TWII 1:02AM 5932.42 -116.84 -1.93%

Peter AsherGoldfan#4746102/05/01; 01:19:07

You said >>>What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or
deflations in asset prices. I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and
services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the
source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a
fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were
to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and
held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and
extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset
markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed
through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.<<<<<

Where did I say something "removes money supply from the equation"? And, what you say in the next two sentences is the same thing I've been saying here for over two years!

As to the rest, money doesn't get "pushed through a pipe" just because it's there. It gets spent or saved depending on the intent of it's holder. If it winds up as truly saved, as in a bank deposit not finding a new borrower, then the bank may choose to send it back upstream to the Fed rather then pay interest on it. When I describe the"Impetus to spend" I'm talking about spending decisions, not ëWeight" of the money supply.

Re your >>>>Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption.<<<<

Sorry, that's gibberish. "The GDP (products) would have been maybe twice as great ---- since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made." Say what? -- Furthermore, from what logic or past event can you conclude that "a market crash make prices go up even faster"? And, there is always something else to do with money other then spend it.



Re >>>> M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.<<<

Again that's what I said. You keep leaving out the rest of it. It flowed through other stuff before too. In your new scenario It just doesn't do a changing of hands on the way.

>>>>>Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!) <<<

Fortunately you correct that yourself, further down.

>>>>Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again.<<<<

>>>>>>I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets.<<<<

Agree with whom, not me! I've said enumerable times that the illusion of wealth in paper assets is a perception, not money.


>>>This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. <<<<

Nope, "ballooned asset values" means a larger piece of the extant money supply must change hands for each share of stock. No money supply is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, only who has it. You are disagreeing also with yourself here.

>>> How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? <<< >>>>It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings".<<<<

There, you did it again. We had that conversation earlier. I never said the first and I've several time said the second.


Goldfan,: you repeatedly say I said something I didn't and then disagree with it, and also say things I did say and then state them as if I hadn't. I'll continue but no more of that, please.

You quoted by>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

And said "We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets."

That's been called inflation, but I claim it isn't. Asset appreciation is a change in monetary entitlement. No good or service was acquired to serve as a measure of price..

>>>>Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default, <<<

That appears to be true. It can also be seen as -- creating new money to rescue debtors from failing. New money at lower rates extends the time-frame that an entity, now earning less, has to pay down all he owes. This all now depends on how new buying power of both rolled over, cheaper debt and new cash infusions are allocated by those that receive same.

working-kirkSilver Leasing#4746202/05/01; 01:21:44

tedw (2/4/2001; 10:44:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47396)

Ted, I will try to answer your questions but these are only reasonable GUESSES

The people who in the past were leasing Silver was probably the U.S. Treasury. You asked the wrong question. Not: Do The Central Banks have large qualities of silver but had they huge qualities and the answer was one time yes. And at one time, THe Treasury was the largest holder of silver. But it is gone. A lot toward making Silver Eagles dollars and quite a bit the keep the silver price down. The bullion was leased. I believe while you need a consistent supply of silver you don't need a large supply. Just as long as you can supply a small stream of real silver, writing a huge number paper contracts should be able to keep the price down nicely. The treasury should be able to supply the silver the shorts need for a while

Also, the treasury was the only one shorting. Last year a major silver refiner went bankrupt. Handy and Harimann. They made a nice profit shorting the silver of their customers until there was a price spike and a customer wanted their silver back. The refiner went bankrupt instead and no one got their silver. Including 2.5 million of the U.S. government

Another source for shorting silver are some banks. Because there hasn't been a bank run for over 75 years, a lot of customers decided to trust their bank with their silver. After all, those massive safes the banks' have should be more secure then the little fireproof safe you have have home. So they contacted their bank to hold the silver.

After a while the bank probably decided since silver prices are being manipulated downward, they could make a quick profit by selling their customer silver at today's price and and when the timing is right, buy back the silver at a lower price. Even I happened to make a quick buck that way. It was by accident and I was lucky and I would be able to do it again. What I decided to do was trade some of my gold coins for a bag of silver. What happen was the goons managed to kick the price of silver, but they haven't attacked gold yet so silver was at it all time low and gold was still at the high price for the day. I made a $25.00 profit but multiply that by millions of ounces it is a nice pay-day.

Another source for the silver is Comdex. If you been reading this forum funny things are going with with platinum and other precious metals. They are increasing margin requirements. I suspect perhaps for every ounce they hold, two or three people was claiming to own it.

I suspect the same thing is true of silver and I suspect the false owner is selling the metal under the nose of the true owner to cover the shorts.

Last Buffet may have leased his silver, but you can bet he is getting a good price for his metal, not 1% or 2% and if the people leasing cannot delivery and have to default I bet he gets $25.00 to 50.00 per ounce for all the headache.

Last, I believe the supply of silver needed to keep leasing going is GONE! The U.S. Government announced in December they were tapped out. We see silver trying to raise and the only thing that is keeping is down is the sheer amount of paper. The reason the price has not exploded is I don't think the longs who are buying the silver believe is it gone and so are willing to wait til April and let the contract roll over. Those who are buying it for manufacture don't need it right away and so can hold off delivery. Warren Buffet when he purchased his 130 million ounces wasn't able to take delivery right away. So the long are waiting like Warren did. They believe the silver is still there. After all GFMS says China is selling silver and they wouldn't print rumours or worse lie about it. They will wait til April when they can't wait and have to take delivery. After all, in april, Children will be graduating and in June weddings are coming up so if you're Kodak, you want SIlver in April, So you can have film ready by May.
I suspect in a month or two you find on Comdex a lot of people who own the same ounce of silver. They may keep the game going for as long as six months with false promises but no longer.

However one small group is getting of of paper silver and taking delivery. Those who are using it for investment or as an inflation hedge. They are taking delivery and buying like crazy. If you have any form of silver, (Paper, laying in somebody's vault, etc) I suggest you take delivery too just to make sure someone doesn't sell it short on you.

rc in
rc (2/4/2001; 12:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47401)

> I thought China was selling. I doubt it. It was reported > that China was selling by GFMS but that may be no more > than a rumor.

>> I'm still looking for some answers about silver leasing.

>> With gold it makes sense. Central Banks have these huge >> store of gold in their vaults doing nothing. So they
>> lease it to earn an income, and at the same time supress >> the price of gold which makes the central bankers fiat
>> currency look good. Makes sense.

>> But the Central banks dont have huge stores of silver do >> they? So I ask the question again, who is doing the >> silver leasing and why?


rc (2/4/2001; 12:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 47401)

I don't know either. And nobody seems to know. People alluded to China selling. Others said Buffet was leasing it. Still hard to swallow that China might sell her silver at bargain prices. Same for Buffet, he should know that he will never see his silver again no matter of much paper he will be paid for.

Still, there must definitely be several hundred millions oz of silver above ground. Maybe just enough to cover the next two years. But again, who is so dumb as to let silver go away at these prices? Scratching my

Peter AsherHi ET#4746302/05/01; 01:34:03

No, I am not the least bit "confused" about which is money supply and which is price inflation. The Hyper-inflation I've been saying can't occur in this state of affairs has always been price.

Maybe it's a bit more clear in the latest post below, maybe not. Nevertheless, no-one has yet shown where consumer buying power, sufficient to support a demand for higher prices, will come from.

There is more than enough product out there, becoming desperate for customers, to counterbalance the additional money being created.

If we see new auto and home sales in a sellers market, then I will change my opinion.

working-kirkIf I only had ten hours to live,...#4746402/05/01; 01:45:35

If you had ten hours to live, most likely you would be in the hospital. Now you say you wouldn't be trying to get more gold in the last hour of your life. Probably not, you either be in shock, unconscious or in a coma so you wouldn't have a care, but let me ask you? How will your family pay for the hospitalation?

The gold you've gotten earlier could come in handy.

Most people however are not put on a ten hour death notice.
But most people realize they are at one time or another will have to be hospitalized. And they, not their family, will have to pay for it. (Or you could go for the government handout and thereby force others to pay)

Now you could pay for your hospitalization in several ways. Savings, Insurance, employee benefits but all those ways requires pre-planning. This is what I believe:

1.) There will be in a few months (Some may think a year or two) a financal crisis that destroys the stock market, the dollar and any kind of paper asset.

2.) Social Security, Medicare or any of the social net programs will not be there in your old age.

3.) You will spent more on medical care after you are 65
than all the years you live through before. Your last two years of life will be twice that amount.

So how would you prepare? Gathering gold is one answer.
It is a form of saving that can be used to pay the hospital bills. Of course if you get run over by a car you can always passed the gold on to your family and survivors without inheritance tax.


> If I knew that I had only 10 hrs of life remaining, I > wouldn't trade it for any amount of gold. Shrouds are > fashioned sans pockets for a reason.

> While the game may continue, you personally can buy into > it only so long as you have life, once you quit breathing,
> for you the game is over.

> You are welcome to think contraily if you so please, > however unless you know something that I don't, then you a
> more Perplexed than I am

ChristianAlter the human brain tissue.#4746502/05/01; 02:08:38

Many farmers use a powder or a liquid chemical to keep flies off the backs of cows. Most of this chemical ends up along the spinal cord and base of the head. The chemical is "DESIGNED" to seep through the skin and to change the entire internal enviroment of the cow into a poisonous medium to kill off parasites. If at the same time the animal is fed high levels of manganese (minerals) the prions band with manganese and carries it around the brain to destroy free redicals. In Europe high levels of manganese is added to crop sprays and insect sprays. In many parts of Europe like Switzerland there is no grasshoppers left- they are all killed off. The Mad Cow Disease in Europe comes from the high levels of manganese, a metal given to cattle in high doses via minerals or organophosphate that comes into contact with the powder or liquid chemical when absorbed through the skin. When it gets to the brain- prions band with maganese which carries it around the brain to desttroy free radicals. Same is true with humans. In the U.S.A. we have the same problem with deer and elk in the wild. In order to grow our crops like corn, soybeans, etc we spray to kill weeds or bugs. The weed spray's bring in the Manganese or Copper and insect spray's bring in the chemicals all in liquid form that goes through nozels under high pressure that spray's it on the crops. When the deer or elk eat the crops just recently sprayed they have a good chance of being poisoned that does not kill them right away but causes them to have chronic wasting disease. Some farmers feed the mineral salt on the open ground that has the chemicals in the mineral salt in it to kill parasites. Like the chemical that is absorbed through the spine on animals back it changes the entire internal enviroment of the cow into a poisonous medium to kill off the parasite. When a cow dies and is hauled off in the rendering truck the mineral and the chemical can survive the process and be mixed into a new ration of feed for other cows in a feed lot. Now these cows can come down with chronic wasting disease. What I mean by chronic wasting disease in these animals is- the animal is unable to built muscle tissue like normal. The meat is blubbery, and the animal's stomach makes a lot of noise and it's stool is always runny (soup).. Gold-2000 debt creation (growth was three times faster than GDP) mad possible by the extra lending made possibe by having credit creation gold priced much higher then commodity gold. Commodity gold $270 Credit creation gold is presently $2750. This will stop when debt becomes so burdensome that economic strangulation occurs or banks loan out money and pay the borrower interest for borrowing the money. Japan is actually thinking about doing that. Nothing else has worked so far.
tg(No Subject)#4746602/05/01; 02:08:46

More dollars won't be chasing the same number of goods, because the indebtedness of the American consumer is at a all time high.
(How do you get a horse that is quenched to drink more.)

It all comes down to a matter of confidence. The American consumer will eventually sense the fear of recession and tighten there belts.( They have already started)

I like this analogy from George Ure, "In the economy, as debt builds up, the economy has to move faster and faster to stay even. Debt load, like ice loading, causes a lack of lift. Beyond certain limits, debt is to the economy, what ice is to a wing. The Fed's moves are designed to keep the wing flying.

Debt is continuing to build up on the economic wing, and we're losing lift!

By lowering the interest rate, they have effectively tried to reduce the icing on the wing. The problem the Fed faces though, is that a change in interest rates today is a very small control surface on the "wing of debt" that has taken nearly 70 years to develop."

Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, eeven though over the last few years the goverment has gone into a massive credit expansion?

PandagoldChristian: One hell of a thought#4746702/05/01; 02:34:40

What if this toxic stuff was spread by an enemy designed to hit the human population. I believe these are the things to be feared in the future from people who have had their backs pushed to the wall, and their noses rubbed in the mire so long that they feel they have nothing more to lose.

We have only to take a look around the world and see how some are treated and have been made to live in order that our western civilisation, in particular the US can enjoy
such a high standard of living - even in some cases to the point of the obscene

lamprey_65working-kirk#4746802/05/01; 03:14:34

http://www.dnsc.dla.mil/

Actually, silver has been held at the National Defense Stockpile Center and sold over the years directly to bullion dealers and end-users. See the links on the page above titled -

Strategic & Critical Materials Report to the Congress

and

Annual Materials Plan

lamprey_65Christian#4746902/05/01; 03:23:42

You wrote:

"The Mad Cow Disease in Europe comes from the high levels of manganese, a metal given to cattle in high doses via minerals or organophosphate that comes into contact with the powder or liquid chemical when absorbed through the skin."

Oh, really?

And I thought it was caused by a protein found in ground-up animal parts and fed to cattle.

I guess you can't believe everything you read on the internet.

;-)

silvercollector@ working-kirk#4747002/05/01; 05:00:48

You mentioned,

"Last, I believe the supply of silver needed to keep leasing going is GONE! The U.S. Government announced in December they were tapped out. We see silver trying to raise and the only thing that is keeping is down is the sheer amount of paper. The reason the price has not exploded is I don't think the longs who are buying the silver believe is it gone..."

Questions:

Do you an offical link to this announcement?

If US government silver is really gone why would the longs not believe this?

Imagine if the US government announced that gold was gone, say for example Fort Knox, what do you think would be the reaction? If you think explosion, why not the case with silver?

SC

Christian(No Subject)#4747102/05/01; 07:04:52

To Lamprey_65

The high level chemical poison and manganese is in the animals blood stream in cows having MAD Cows disease. In Britain alone 5 million cows have been slaughtered because of it. Do you know that an affiliate of Monsanto makes the products. Monsanto also makes GMSoya to take the place of meat-by- products which is now a big hit. A few years ago they could not sell it. Monsanto stock is now up 50% and will increase at least 100% before the year is over. Tell me of one Bush cabinet members who does not have some connection to Monsanto. The bovine spongiform consists of the chemical poison compined with monganese or copper. Do you know what GMSoya is? Do you know what GM crops are? Do you what GM organisms can do. We are about to find out during the next ten years. There is no way to undue it. In the next ten years half of the beef herd will be gone in Europe and the GMSoya will be used as a meat supstitute for humans and protein supstitute for cattle.
R PowellSilver#4747202/05/01; 07:15:34

Silvercollector

I remember reading about a month ago that the government had a huge store of silver that they decided not to dump on the market. Instead, they dispensed it yearly to the mints to be used for coins (commemorative) and the last shipment was just recently made. It's enough for the mints for the rest of this year, 2001. Next year the government will have to buy silver for the mints. I printed this out but can't, at the moment find the article to provide the link. I think the gov. had a one time one billion ounces and the last shipment of 100 million will last this year only. Not sure of the numbers. I'll post the link when I find it.
Rich

R PowellSilvercollector#4747302/05/01; 07:30:56

Found it mentioned at G-E under silver. It was 15 million ounces not 100 million. If I had 15 million I wouldn't mind not having the other 85 million. Bigger numbers than I can imagine.

Silver Inventories
Worldwide inventories are the lowest they have been in more than 100 years. Many analysts believe that, at the current rate of use, all available silver inventories will be consumed within the next 12 to 18 months. In recent months, Comex silver stocks have continued to fall. Mid December saw silver stocks on Comex at 95.7 mill oz, down 1/2 million oz from a month earlier and a new recent year low.

A recent press release entitled "US National Defense Silver Stockpile Eliminated" (Washington, DC -- November 27, 2000) The US Defense National Stockpile Center (DNSC) committed to deliver its remaining stockpile of silver, nearly 15 million ounces, to the United States Mint for its coinage programs. The final balance of silver will be shipped to the U.S. Mint over the next few weeks, effectively depleting the U.S. silver stockpile.

"We basically estimate we have about a year's worth of silver and we will be developing a plan to address future acquisition," US Mint spokesman Michael White told Reuters.

On this report Ted Butler, well known

tedwsilver leasing#4747402/05/01; 07:33:58

http://www.usagold.com

working-kirk


Thank you for taking the time to answer my question.


I think youve given me a good idea.I believe I will exchange some gold for silver.

JourneymanLooting the world @Pandagold msg#: 47467#4747502/05/01; 07:57:58

Hi Panda!

The American standard of living, at least for the AVERAGE American is much overstated. Most of us have been enslaved by the government-banking axis to a degree unknown in the "third world."

The AVERAGE American has no savings, owes ~~$8,000 on his/her plastic, not to mention SUV payments, mortgage payments, etc. - - - and, unlike the 1950s, BOTH he and his wife or live-in must work to support the family - - - AND they are working longer and longer hours (burning more and more of their most valuable commodity) every year. More than 90% of the AVERAGE American's disposable income goes to make loan payments of some sort. It's the "company store" all over again.

But perhaps on weekends and in the few remaining hours at the end of each workday, Americans get to enjoy the lush and lavish life-style?

Americans are less healthy than natives from third-world Mexico - - and we don't live as long. We have more things against the law and more citizens per capita in jails and prisons -- by far -- than in any other country in the world.

So if the rest of the world has indeed been raided to support our life-style, someone better go check Captain Hook's sea chest - - - cause most of the loot ain't finding it's way to the crew.

Regards,
Journeyman

JMBGoldman Sachs#4747602/05/01; 08:33:55

Only 25 delivery notices for Gold today on the Comex.
Our heroes stopped 10.

Of the 4,562 total contracts of Gold intended for delivery this month, Goldman Sachs has stopped 2,074...one might conclude that they are bullish. IT'S ABOUT TIME!

beestingThoughts Only on the Price of U.S. Paper Silver.#4747702/05/01; 09:27:04

http://quote.yahoo.com/m5?a=1&s=XAG&t=MXN

First fact we should try to agree on:
Mexico claims to be the worlds largest producer of Silver.
So, with that thought in mind wouldn't it seem likely that new Silver for sale in the U.S. comes from Mexico?
Second, lets look at the Peso to U.S. dollar exchange rate.
Currently: 1 U.S. dollar equals 9.78 Peso's(I think these are called New Peso's, since the exchange rate of the "Old" Peso's became a joke when Mexico had finanicial problems not too long ago,,,it was called devaluation.)

Third, how much is 1 ounce of Silver priced in Peso's?
See above link: 1 ounce Silver equals 46.16 Peso's.

So, if we knew the wages of Mexican miners and the cost of producing Silver in Mexico,,,,much cheaper I'm sure, than in the U.S. we would get a better idea of where the cheap(In U.S. dollars) supply of Silver is coming from.Some Mexican hoarders may also be selling.

Now, add that to what some smart American or any investor with a higher "Currency Exchange Rate" and inside connections (Bullion Bankers?)might be able to buy future production of Silver at in Mexico or Bolivia(Another large Silver producer) and we come up with,,,,Somebody or many somebody's with deep pockets, buy at the source of production cheaply in "LOCAL" currency and sell at the market place where he/she can make a profit in American Currency add that to an inflated amount of paper contracts for future Silver delivery keeping the price where "they" want it and,,,,we have an oversold buyers market of paper Silver "Contracts" forcing the pricing mechanism down/ or not up too high, in U.S. dollars,,,,this type of business has been going on for thousands of years.(Buy low Sell High) Is the world running out of physical Silver?? Us small guys will never know until after the fact.

See my post, beesting 1/30/2001 # 46938 Chinese Agriculture,Currency Valuations, and Gold, for a better understanding of how this on going Currency operation(Read Worldwide Scam) is working. These are thoughts only,,,Thanks for Reading....beesting.

PandagoldJourneyman:Thanks for the clear up#4747802/05/01; 09:39:12

I very much agree with what you say. America is a mixed bag of tricks. There exists some of the worst poverty in the world, and, on the other end of the spectrum, most of the extreme 'rich'

In California more riches are lavished by some on their pooches in one week, than a 'human-bean' has to live on for a whole year in some third world countries.

Unfortunately this sort of crap gets projected to the world.
Rarely is the more poverty side acknowledged by media ie the 'carboard cities' that abound. If ever we glimpse 'the other side of the tracks' it is usually in some 1920's era
setting, as though it only existed in the past.



I also know that most of this high living is on debt - a debt made possible by the rest of the world keep accepting these green iou's'.

Other parts of the western world are also enjoying a higher standard than they would if some of these 'banana republics'
got a little better deal than at present.

I have travelled far and wide, and not on one of these - 'It's Tuesday so it must be Paris' trips. So I know the score.

I know that we can never have an ideal world, and most people accept that, it is just that things have now become a bit skewed, don't you think. It is when you get extreme excesses and a diminishing cushion in between that the real problems start.

And that is where we are at. At least, that is how I see it.

I appreciate, and fully understand your comment.

PandagoldJourneyman#4747902/05/01; 09:48:58

Don't know how that thanks for the clear up got in the subject, must have been a throw up from an earlier post. But a THANKS for the comment is appropriate. Then, come to think of it, perhaps 'the clear up' is relevant, because it could have sounded that I was saying all Americans ar rich
and are robbing the world which is far from the case.

Do you know, that even when the UK was at the height of Empire and Britannia Ruled the Waves, the vast majority of Brits, especially in the North, were living at, or just above the poverty line.

goldfanPeter Asher Yet again... on inflation or not#4748002/05/01; 09:57:47

Peter re your 474461, thanks for responding to so may of my points. I'll try to do more of a reply later, this for now.
your>>>
Peter Asher (2/4/2001; 17:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 47433)

is where you say " the slowdown will remove money supply from the equation..."

>>>I am suggesting that what you are calling "interest rate drag" and I call reduced cost of debt service, will not create a systemic increase in available purchasing money because the deflationary/slowdown will remove money supply from the equation and the best we can hope for is maintaining the existing economic summation in place. The following, From "Feeding Leviathan." is where I lay this out.

"---- one man's savings becomes only a perception while simultaneously becoming someone else's spending money. The fattening up of the economy through this via was facilitated by the easy money on gains taken and the perception of wealth in positions held. That easy money fed a purchasing frenzy and the perceived wealth made it easy to let go of any other discretionary income. Naturally, as the seemingly endless cycle of Buy low/Sell high came to an end, that impetus ceased to exist. <<<<

I certainly have no intention of misquoting you. I think a lot of our ideas are similar.
I certainly agree with this last paragraph of yours above. I feel like I'm getting into a lot of misunderstood references on maybe both our parts. For example, when I say the GDP can be twice as great, without any increase in amount of goods produced, what I mean is that if the prices were to inflate, the GDP as a dollar figure would be much larger, but , the amount of goods would stay the same.

I think our discussion comes down to my disagreeing with what you said in paragraph one I've quoted above. I think that to have a deflation in prices, we have to have a massive reduction in the already created money supply, and not add any more to it. I don't think that a crash and a slowdown automatically destroys money supply, unless the banks are allowed to fail. So we are going to have situation where the GDP is contracting, and the money supply is increasing. This can only mean a massive inflation. Banks on the point of failure will have their assets monetized (read more money supply!) by the government in order to try to prevent fire sales and cascading defaults. The US$ index will drop, sharply increasing import prices for consumer goods and oil. Corporations will increase prices, though their sales are declining, in order to preserve some profits, and trying to avoid bankruptcy. (stagflation). The appearance on the scene of inflation in goods prices will prompt people who have fire saled their paper assets to put the cash into real goods and hopefully, gold. Hyperinflation. Greenspan can save the dollar, or he can save the banks. He can't do both. He has opted to save the banks.

My picture of the economy is that money circulates (yes I define it as "spent", when I buy a pound of butter, or a share of stock, I spend money in my parlance) in different arenas. I suggest that if 3/4 of the spending (not the money supply, but the circulation of part of that money supply) is in the stock market and only 1/4 in the GDP as it was last year, then a collapse of the stock arena, will lead to a massive increase in circulation in the GDP and real estate arenas.Where else could it go?

If we can take the same money supply that has driven $36 trillion of stock market activity plus $12 trillion of GDP activity and get it to drive maybe $4 trillion of stock market activity and less than $12 trillion of GDP activity, without increasing prices, then I'm wrong. Then we won't have the hyperinflation.

Something ORO said a while ago made me think we might even have the hyperinflation while increasing stock prices and stock market capitalizations. I guess this would occur if the drop in the US$index and the $80 trillion of derivatives blowup made the $24 trillion total of US$ in the world come home. But I don't know. I feel totally lost about that part of it.

FWIW

Goldfan

Galearis@tedw: silver#4748102/05/01; 10:18:32

I was hoping Rhody would come in and deliver one of his straight-to-the-chin DISsertations on scamduggery in the silver market, but seems locked up in distractions of other kinds.

This market, from my point of view, is also driven by naivity of the many - including myself to a great extent - but postings in this site, other forums, and the oh-so-important writings of ones such as Ted Butler may yet inform enough of this market to get them through the coming storm. To add my miniscule two grains of silver thought to this discussion: the naive market very often has the same attitude and problems with silver as do the larger buyers. To wit: bulk and volume of the asset bought. As a solution to this dilemma (for the banks as well as the consumer) has been in the form of silver and gold certificates. The "saving" grace of this paper for the buyer is that he or she saves on paper add-on charges, bar fees and the like which are a surcharge over and above current spot. The buyer purchases from the bullion bank this piece of paper that certifies the ownership of X oz. still held (in trust) or "registered" at the bullion bank. The problem is that the bank in a fractional reserve system is able to issue perhaps as many as 20 of these papers for the same oz of the pm. So for convenience gained, an additional risk is taken. IMO the surcharges added at the bullion bank are a method for discouraging the purchase of physical supplies. When (not if) this market is "TOCOMED" the holders of this paper will only be able to "cash out" - not exchange their paper with metal. This, of course, is a default by the bank - and is certainly the scenario that will happen when many run to their local bullion bank in the not so distant future.

Of course many still use the bullion bank to "store" their silver or gold purchased (gold and silver pools), but this would imply that this is totally safe - the pms are registered yes. True enough while the bank is in solvent condition. Also the bank must (?) get permission from the client to lease these supplies into the market. This too is where some of this silver comes from - and in a declining spot environment would seem a good (?) idea to the "investor".

At any rate, this is my limited understanding of the situation. The only thing I am reasonably sure about is that silver WILL be the next "TOCOMED" precious metal and that this will happen sometime in 2002 - and likely early on too.

Randy (@ The Tower)Fed adds $6.505 billion to banking system reserves today#4748202/05/01; 11:01:53

After a large ($11+ billion) Thursday operation followed by a rare restful Friday, the Fed Account Manager today engaged again in open market operations.

With the federal funds market trading at the target rate (5.5%), the Fed stepped in to add $4.505 billion via overnight repurchace agreements in tandem with $2.0 billion via 28-day repos.

Clearly, this "intervention" was not done to influence the rates. And we all know what risk threatens a national currency when it becomes so easily had...

Peter AsherGoldfan, tg#4748302/05/01; 11:03:48

tg: like your analogy.
Goldfan, thanks. We're getting closer.

I'm out the door till after dark. Will write tonight.

Meanwhile, maybe you'd like to take a crack at tg's question

tg (02/05/01; 02:08:46MT msg#: 47466)
>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, even though over the last few years the government has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<

goldfanPeter Asher my more complete response#4748402/05/01; 11:41:39

Re Peter Asher msg#: 47461)
Peter here is my full response to your last. It's been a learning trip for me.

Goldfan then... What removes money supply from the equation? Not slowdowns in economic activity, or
deflations in asset prices. I don't think money supply is reduced because prices for goods and
services and even assets have dropped. Money supply is reduced when loans are paid off at the
source of creation of the money, and in no other way, (except maybe the destruction of bills in a
fire, or destruction of a bank through bankruptcy) If all the paper assets and all the goods were
to suddenly vanish, the money supply would remain the same, as recorded in bank records and
held in mattresses at that moment. Unless goods and services can be traded or made and
extinguished at a much higher rate than at present, then, the collapse of activity in the paper asset
markets will be accompanied by a hyperinflation, as the existing money supply gets pushed
through much smaller pipe than it has been occupying.

Asher now....>>>>Where did I say something "removes money supply from the equation"? And, what you say in the next two sentences is the same thing I've been saying here for over two years!<<<

Goldfan now...You said the above in your message #47433 . And I value your efforts here, and am not deliberately failing to credit you, every time I say something you agree with...

Asher now...>>>>As to the rest, money doesn't get "pushed through a pipe" just because it's there. It gets spent or saved depending on the intent of it's holder. If it winds up as truly saved, as in a bank deposit not finding a new borrower, then the bank may choose to send it back upstream to the Fed rather then pay interest on it. When I describe the"Impetus to spend" I'm talking about spending decisions, not ëWeight" of the money supply.<<<<

GF now...the pipe metaphor is how I visualize it. The stock market arena is a big pipe, so prices can go sky high without much money pressure, much use of the money supply. the GDP is a finite, much smaller pipe. Trying to push a lot of money supply through it, takes a lot of pressure, which translates into much higher prices. Maybe this metaphor is kind of clumsy.

GF then... >>>>Absent the mania in stocks, the GDP would have been maybe twice as great, meaning that prices would have been double what they were, since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made (people are anyway buying more than they make). If the prices had even gone up a fraction of that amount, the market would have crashed (read, become much less energetic) and the prices would have gone up even faster, there being nothing else to do with the money but spend it on consumption.<<<<

Asher now....Sorry, that's gibberish. "The GDP (products) would have been maybe twice as great ---- since there obviously could have been no increase in the actual products made." Say what? -- Furthermore, from what logic or past event can you conclude that "a market crash make prices go up even faster"? And, there is always something else to do with money other then spend it.<<<<<

GF now....I replied to this in my # 474480 . GDP can double without more actual goods being produced, if prices double. Also, I visualize that if the wealth effect dies, then whatever money can be extracted from brkerage accounts, moey market funds, mutual funds, will be deosited into bank accounts and quickly spent by a people afraid to hold cash for fear it will buy nothing in a few weeks. Nobody holds cash today, I think attitudes will be the same in future.

GF then...>>>Re >>>> M3 Money doesn't disappear because stocks or bonds become unpopular, it just flows through other stuff.<<<

Asher now....Again that's what I said. You keep leaving out the rest of it. It flowed through other stuff before too. In your new scenario It just doesn't do a changing of hands on the way.<<<

GF now...Well I certainly think that spending money is causing it to change hands. Otherwise, I can't understand your remark here.

GF then.... >>>Amongst any assets, paper or otherwise, there can be a difference between the bookkeeping record of the total value of the assets, and the money that has flowed through them to create that record. Last year, the total value of all trading of all stock market activity in the US was 300% of GDP (crosscurrents.net) when normally, in earlier years, the amount is closer to 25% of GDP. To me, this means the US has become a nation which circulates what it calls money in the stock and bond market, not in the making of goods and the providing of goods and services.( a lot like Barrick Gold and other gold hedge funds masquerading as miners, come to think of it!) <<<

Asher now...Fortunately you correct that yourself, further down.<<<<

GF now....I don't get what you object to in the paragraph above. To me, the dollar volume activity in the stock market at three times the dollar volume activity in the GDP markets means that a lot more of the money supply is being directed at the stock market, than at the GDP markets. But I guess one could argue, that a dollar directed at the stock market has a greater ballooning effect on the valuations there, than a dollar directed at the GDP market. I don't know how to prove my contention. If I'm wrong, If most of the money supply has been directed at or through, the GDP markets, and only a small proportion at or through the stock markets, then collapse of the stock market will not materially change the amount of money available to be directed at the GDP markets, so there will be no hyperinflation. (unless the huge sums offshore, derivatives etc. come home)


GF then...>>>>Savings in the form of paper assets are not money supply, they are just records that money has been here, and maybe could be again.<<<<

GF then...>>>>>>I agree that creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets.<<<<

Asher now...Agree with whom, not me! I've said enumerable times that the illusion of wealth in paper assets is a perception, not money.<<<

GF now...Sorry, I didn't intend my statement to read as if I believe that the excess money supply equates to the escalation in paper wealth denominated by the stock market. I shouldn't have said I agree... before I understood how you were going to read me. When I say "creation of excess money supply has created an illusion of wealth in paper assets" I meant that people's ability to borrow, for example, on their homes, has enabled them to direct that borrowed money at the stock market, so to get a multiplier effect that they are calling wealth, but which is just perception of wealth, as I know you have said. Many times.

GF then>>>This is only because the valuation of paper assets has ballooned far beyond what is justified by any possibility that the increase in money supply will ever be paid off by labor of the current work force. <<<<

Asher now...Nope, "ballooned asset values" means a larger piece of the extant money supply must change hands for each share of stock. No money supply is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, only who has it. You are disagreeing also with yourself here.<<<

GF now....I believe true wealth can only be created out of borrowed funds if there is a repayment of those funds out of productive labor. But even then, the wealth may not be created. When I borrow the money to buy shares of stock, and my purchase balloons the valuation of all the rest of that stock in other's hands, even my payback of that borrowed money, may not create the productive conditions needed to justify these higher stock prices. Just here I am a bit stuck, have to think about it some more.
In any case, I see that what you have said here , no money is created or destroyed by a change in asset values, is a better way of saying what I believe.

GF then....>>> How does rolling over a loan at a lower interest rate lower the size of the money stock in existence? <<< >>>>It doesn't. It just means that whoever pays interest, will have a bit more of his income to spend on goods, if he is afraid to invest it in "savings".<<<<

Asher now....There, you did it again. We had that conversation earlier. I never said the first and I've several time said the second.<<<

GF now...I don't really get what I 'did"!! Somewhere in all this I took you to be saying that rolling over loans at lower interest rates was going to help keep prices stable, or even deflate them. And if that was what you said, then , I say it aint necessarily so. Maybe there was a time when this could be the result. But not now, when the money supply is in such great excess, and there is so much bad credit out there. But I don't know how to prove this, that the money supply is already too great to be compatible with a falling stock market, and a falling GDP and stable prices for goods seen as stores of wealth when all other wealth stores are shunned.

Asher now...Goldfan,: you repeatedly say I said something I didn't and then disagree with it, and also say things I did say and then state them as if I hadn't. I'll continue but no more of that, please.

Asher then...You quoted by>>>Consider: While all that raging hormonal spending power was feeding the beast we did not have rampant inflation.<<<

Goldfan then....And said "We did. It was in the paper asset markets, and the real estate markets."

Asher now...That's been called inflation, but I claim it isn't. Asset appreciation is a change in monetary entitlement. No good or service was acquired to serve as a measure of price.<<<

GF now....I guess we just disagree here. I think owning a share of stock is owning stuff, as much as owning an orange, or a new Mercedes. The only difference, other than their marginal utility to the owner, and possible buyers, is in their liquidity, how easily they can be sold for something close to their buying price.

GF then...>>>>Greenspan is not just providing money at lower interest rates to make debt service less expensive, he is providing newly created money to rescue banks that would otherwise fail as loans default, <<<

Asher now...>>>That appears to be true. It can also be seen as -- creating new money to rescue debtors from failing. New money at lower rates extends the time-frame that an entity, now earning less, has to pay down all he owes. This all now depends on how new buying power of both rolled over, cheaper debt and new cash infusions are allocated by those that receive same.<<<

GF now...Well I think the time for rescuing new or old debtors has passed, the credit excess has become too great for a soft landing. I believe there are quite a few people out there who have no intention of using their generous loan repayment schedules to pay off the debts. they are hoping to get out of payment altogether.

Peter so far I've learned that I don't know how to prove the thesis, which I have gleaned from my reading, that the money supply is already too great or must certainly become so, to support a soft landing. And, that hyperinflation is inevitable. Someone here or there said that it is impossible to have a deflation with a fiat money. I guess I believe that. But I'm not able to prove it. Thanks for this

Goldfan

goldfanPerplexed (2/4/2001; 18:30:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 47436)#4748502/05/01; 11:47:15

Perplexed I was happy to see your response and I'm sorry I didn't post this to you sooner. Meant it to go yesterday...
My response as follows:
>>>It was considered a trueism several years ago, that the only entity responsible for inflation (being a net consumer rather than a producer of wealth) was government.<<<

I agree in that governments create fiat money, which seems to have the property of always inflating, mostly because no one seems to be able to manage its supply, to keep it scarce enough. It would be the same with gold, if someone were to discover an enormous hoard, and give it all to one group to spend.

>>>I have had a major problem accepting the fact that inflation has not existed to any appreciable degree for the last 20 years, as I have observed an ever increasing mountain of debt.

To my apparently infantile mind, (our "public servants" view) the debt is nothing more than taxes which are not being levied upon the current population to pay the total cost of government.<<<<<

I agree in that governments create fiat money which seems to have the property of always inflating, mostly because no one seems to be able to manage its supply, to keep it scarce enough. It would be the same with gold, if someone were to discover an enormous hoard, and give it all to one group to spend.

>>>I have never been able to come up but with 3 means by which the debt may be satisfied. 1. Repudiation 2. Taxes 3. Currency depreciation. What have I missed?<<<

What I would say about this, and I'm groping around in the fog just like you, is that debt gets paid,

1. By someone paying off their borrowing in full as agreed in the contract. If the payment is made to retire bank created debt, then the money disapppears and the money supply is decreased by that amount.

2. by default (repudiation) which leaves the borrowed money still circulating, but without the interest drag on it, so it is easier to spend in goods etc. The default also causes the lender to have to sell some assets ( at 20X as much maybe because of fractional reserve banking) to preserve his reserve ratio. This fire sale drops the asset valuations, so he has to sell still more maybe, and so on. Nevertheless, the original money borrowed to fund the purchase of these now reduced value assets, is still circulating, though the the interest drag is still on it, if it is a bond. If it is stocks, then the reduced value may be causing other tightening up, margin loans getting called, spending curtailed because one isn't so wealthy anymore. Not only people stop spending when they feel less wealthy, so do corporations.

2. Taxes. Only if governments use tax money to pay off government debt at the Fed is money extinguished. Any other use of tax money of for example to purchase treasury bonds from the market, just keeps the money circulating, but without the interest rate drag on it, so it can more easily go into inflation of goods and services prices.

3. Currency depreciation. Reduced purchasing power doesn't pay off debt or reduce money supply. Unless the money is used to pay off bank created debt, it just keeps circulating, although it has reduced purchasing power.
FWIW

Thanks for your interest,


Goldfan

beestingFollow up for Peter Asher # 47437...Banking.#4748602/05/01; 11:52:11

Hi again Peter, part of your post:

<<<My understanding (To which I am willing to accept correction) is that you could lend
out 8 to10 times your DEPOSITS from customers, but that all the additional money you
issue must be borrowed from the central bank at the ëwholesale' rate and your gross profit
is only the additional ëretail' amount of interest you can obtain beyond that. I imagine
you could leverage a gold deposit to the CB likewise, but I still think you would be
paying the CB the "Fed Funds" rate on every dollar loaned out to you costumers.>>>

beesting:
Just talked to my long time banking loan officer friend, and she says "ALL" the loans the bank holds can be used as collateral to back new loans.So, I think that answers our mutual question. What seems to happen to "Break a Bank" is when the money flow from the public starts to decline. Loss of jobs,injuries,divorces,natural disasters, etc etc... make operating expenses higher than cash flow...than the whole bank may be in trouble. She says her bank "Buys"(Pays by check the same as you or me, from our checking accounts.) cash from a local subsidary of the Central Bank, when needed.
Some additional information from her:
Banks stay in business mostly by paying on going expenses from "interest recieved" on loans, however they make an extra killing if it's a buyers market, and they can forclose on a property that has a lot of "equity".(Example:Recieving $150,000 when re-selling a house, when the mortgage was paid down to say $60,000) My friend also believes a devaluation of the dollar is immenent, but doesn't know when, she is also accumulating Gold & Silver, and she's "In The Know"!....beesting.

DaveCPandagold on world poverty#4748702/05/01; 12:20:49

"There exists some of the worst poverty in the world" in the US?

I have travelled the world, and especially the USA, and I do not believe this to be true.

All you have to do is go down to Mexico and you will see life like nothing you can find in America.

At least not yet.

Randy (@ The Tower)More on this Treasury situation we discussed last week#4748802/05/01; 12:21:17

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010205/n05418490_2.html

The U.S. Treasury Department will auction $11 billion in 4-3/4 year notes Tuesday, followed by an equal amount in ten-year notes on Wednesday, capping the week with a $10 billion auction in 30-year bonds on Thursday--which some believe may be the last of its kind on the basis of last week's informal recommendation of the Treasury's advisory committee to end the issue of the long bond in light of projected government budget surpluses.

Jim Claire, director of fixed income trading at First Union National Bank, told Reuters, "While we are having an auction this week, it's probably going to be the last new long bond for quite some time -- for years and years."

Notions of additional Fed rate cuts has helped to bolster prices on short-term Treasury issues, while expectations of reduced or terminated long-term issues helps to keep these outlying bonds on their legs. It shall work only so long as the dollar does not take a visible hit on its chin.

To help you put this all together, in discussing this last week you may recall we mentioned how capital gains taxes could be in essence seen as "inflation taxes" (or "currency devaluation taxes") as future "smaller dollars" appear to measure (with prices) today's things much larger at a later day....giving rise to capital gains taxes though no real gain occurred, just smaller currency units.

We also talked about a "balloon trying to blow itself up to fill a party room" in an effort to explain the Fed's challenge to keep the banking system liquid via easing domestic policy to compensate for the international shift away from dollar usage.

In recent weeks we also talked about this apparent evolution in the structure of our monetary system, shifting away from government debt toward more commercial debt as the monetary base, and it this we decode some of the meaning behind the Treasury's "strong dollar policy" assurances often quoted on the world stage. The current dollar system is an old legacy over which the world's many players have grown weary. Owing to its reserve status/usage, the transition from the old free ride structure (which provided many years of "deficits without tears") to one more compatible to the international trend (euro-style reserve and banking model) will impact the dollar (and perceived wealth of its holders) moreso than any other. Gold will carry you grandly through such a transition...old world wealth with a value yet hidden behind the legacy dollar system and its counterpart derivatives. Buy yours while conditions remain in your favor.

N.M.JMB#4748902/05/01; 12:30:43

I'm kind of new to this stuff. Where did you get that information (stopping delivery on GS's part) and could you explain a little more about "stopping" delivery (what it exactly entails, etc). Sorry for the ignorance. Please enlighten me.
sstinsQuestion for Trail Guide #4749002/05/01; 12:42:40

or anyone else that might be able to provide some insight.

After having gone back over some of Another's and FOA's posts of 98, it is apparant that both felt the gold market was soon to embark on an enormous change. This change it seems was thought to occur sometime in 99. What event or events in your opinion has delayed this transition.

Are you and Another still looking for a default to be the catalyst for this impending implosion of the gold market as we know it?

Finally, I believe we are well on the road to the ultimate end you right about. What kind of time frame would you guess much of this will come about?

I Apologize in advance if you've already addressed this in prior posts.

Thanks!

ss

PandagoldDave C#4749102/05/01; 12:55:46

You must pour though my postings with one thing in mind, not to understand the essence of what I write - incidentally
in this case acknowledging a comment from an American who was pointing out to me what I was acknowledging here (see the post to which this refers), but your objective appears to be finding one piece, take it out of context and try and score a point.

Never mind you having been to Mexico - where have you been in America? At least, if you live in a cardboard box in Mexico, you are reasonably warm - try it in Chicago, or New York, or Detroit, yes and London, in January.

There is also much more family togetherness in many of these countries which helps to make poverty more bearable.
When you have nothing in the US - man YOU HAVE NOTHING.

If you don't care for my postings, and can't see them in context and identify the essence,then pass them over PLEASE!

I am not anti -American, or anti any other country in this small world of ours. I have a son who is a US citizen by birth, and married to a US citizen. I also lived there many years and have friends all over the country. I travelled it in my job from North to South, East to West. I have seen the best, and the worst. I took US history at school in great depth.

So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner

beestingJapan! Opinion!#4749202/05/01; 13:04:35

Sir, tg asks;
tg (02/05/01; 02:08:46MT msg#: 47466)
>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, even
though over the last few years the government has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<

I lived in Japan and I'll give an opinion only...
Since 1971 the Japanese "Yen", unlike most of the rest of the worlds currencies, has "apprieciated"(gone up in value) from a low of 360 Yen to the dollar to as high as 80 Yen to the dollar, however internal Japanese inflation has also gone up. Which means Japanese money can buy more goods from overseas spending less Yen than before,but things at home(Japan) are more expensive than 30 years ago.
Now, it's been said the Japanese are the worlds most thrifty people and keeping a few thousand Yen hidden at home has always been a normal practice especially since when I was there homes are just as safe as banks for storing valuables. So, the "paper"Yen hidden at home since 1971 may not have been "de-valued" as much as the U.S. dollar and the rest of the worlds currencies.
The "Banks and lenders" are the ones in trouble in Japan and here's why; The "Big" spenders, companies, and top bosses, made a lot of money during Japan's "Go Go" days. They invested their money in real estate bidding up the prices much, much higher than they should have. Because they were the highest class of Japanese society they had no trouble obtaining bank loans.(The good old boys system) They were all buying with the expectation of selling to make a huge "profit."( Does this sound like the recent U.S. stock market?)Eventually there were no more real estate buyers, as noone wanted to bid prices any higher. Than the prices in real estate started to plummet because their were no buyers. Eventually the real estate prices were much lower than the loans that were made to finance the original loan. So,borrowers quit making payments to banks on real estate they couldn't sell, which has still not been resolved to this day. Many big banks are in trouble.
Why is Japan almost giving away money?( low interest rates) My take is to try to get more money flowing to the people to try to start the bidding war again on real estate, but the people are not falling for it as the money put into circulation is again hidden "Under the tea pot" to be saved for a rainy day.(many older folks still remember extreme poverty caused by WWII, and yes, some starvation.) Also since real estate crashed they reason companies with debt may go out of business,(banks) causing continued sell offs in stocks.(loss of confidence) Although released unemployment figures seem higher than before, I would guess most Japanese that want to work, are working at "under the table" jobs, most are extremely industrious. When I was there many, many people worked 7 days a week 12 or more hours a day.Another thing I learned to admire about the Japanese people, "They Hate Paying Taxes!!!" And many may figure out how to survive without paying taxes.
Hope this helps....beesting.

geFrom Kitco - Did you see this?#4749302/05/01; 13:16:02

http://laws.lp.findlaw.com/getcase/US/456/353.html

Thanks to
longj (aurator - trial transcript) ID#30345:
and
ted butler (@Wow - the Supremes, sounding like kitco) ID#370209:

BEGIN QUOTE

One of the futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange provided for the delivery of a railroad car lot of
50,000 pounds of Maine potatoes at a designated place on the Bangor and Aroostook Railroad during the period between May
7, 1976, and May 25, 1976. Trading in this contract commenced early in 1975 and terminated on May 7, 1976. On two
occasions during this trading period the Department of Agriculture issued reports containing estimates that total potato stocks,
and particularly Maine potato stocks, were substantially down from the previous year. This information [456 U.S. 353, 370] had the
understandable consequences of inducing investors to purchase May Maine potato futures contracts (on the expectation that
they would profit from a shortage of potatoes in May) and farmers to demand a higher price for their potatoes on the cash
market. 43

To counteract the anticipated price increases, a group of entrepreneurs described in the complaints as the "short sellers" formed
a conspiracy to depress the price of the May Maine potato futures contract. The principal participants in this "short conspiracy"
were large processors of potatoes who then were negotiating with a large potato growers association on the cash market. The
conspirators agreed to accumulate an abnormally large short position in the May contract, to make no offsetting purchases of
long contracts at a price in excess of a fixed maximum, and to default, if necessary, on their short commitments. They also agreed
to flood the Maine cash markets with unsold potatoes. This multifaceted strategy was designed to give the growers association
the impression that the supply of Maine potatoes would be plentiful. On the final trading day the short sellers had accumulated a
net short position of almost 1,900 contracts, notwithstanding a Commission regulation 44 limiting their lawful net position to 150
contracts. They did, in fact, default.

END QUOTE

rcMad cow desease#4749402/05/01; 13:19:26

@Christian

Your explanation of the mad cow desease makes a lot of sense.

I always thought there was something fishy in a theory that surmises a protein creates another protein.

If you are right, then this is just the beginning. The 21 century will be a world of doom and gloom as never in history aside perhaps during the Spanish flu or the Black Plague times. I suspect it could even be worse.

For some times already I think that, at some point, humanity will stretch its luck a little too far. And Mother Nature will react. With terrible consequences.

RhodyLEASE RATES#4749502/05/01; 13:21:28

Today gold lease rate spreads contracted to .32%. The
lease rate pipe just contracted significantly towards
backwardation. One year leases dropped .06% meaning
mine producers continue to close out hedges.
Overall lease rates are at very low levels, indicating
a marked tendency by borrowers to avoid adding to metal
debt at these low spot prices.

Tree in the ForestBut they wouldn't manipulate gold would they?#4749602/05/01; 13:35:24

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3H9GT9TIC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=ZZZOMSJK30C&subheading=US

Leading US banks - including Chase Manhattan and Bank of America - have become facilitators in money laundering by operating so-called correspondent accounts for high-risk foreign banks, it says.
IronHeadtg - Japan Recession, Your #47466#4749702/05/01; 13:57:27

Sir tg - I'll be happy to give you my thumbnail sketch of what I believe is occuring with respect to Japnan, but please view it only as casual observation by one with an un-educated view from experience on the street, as opposed to scholarly analysis from reading stats published by "their" and "our" officials, non of which from our side have probably ever set foot at Narita airport Jp.

As I've mentioned here before, my wife is Japanese, which has led me to a wonderful cultural exchange and the opportunity to travel and stay in Japan for the last ten years. I was in Japan in late 89-90 during their market plunge, so have some reference as to how things were then and now, with the last visit about one year ago.

I don't buy into the story about the Japanese economy being in dire straits, and think it's only propaganda from both sides to keep us buying and them selling. With 0 natural resources other than the human ability to design and manufacture anything better than most others, it is apparent to all that Japan must export to stay alive. To do so requires capital, which we provide, as evidenced by the enormous trade surplus they constantly run. We are all mostly in agreement that Japan takes the excess surplus and buys into our debt load with both fists.

My off the cuff observation is based on having been there, and of a good lifelong friend whom has lived in Japan for over ten years, working as a headhunter for virtually all the top companies in Japan at one time or another. We talk often and he and I have come to the same conclusion - it's bunk, pure and simple. From our viewpoint employment is still full on, prices are still darn high compared to what we pay for food, housing, transportation (I know it sure eats my US fiat fast when there - how about $8-10 dollars for a melon?) and everyone we know, still has a job, eats, lives in some form of abode, enjoys life's pleasures with recreation, and generally seem about the same as they were ten years ago. His business is the business of people and he's never been more busy, with the competition for bodies at an all time high.

Considering at least to this point in time, our consumption of Japan's goods has not been abated in the slightest. With the trade deficit as it stands, the dollar yen ratio kept in check by Bank of Japan buying of dollars every time the yen makes a move, and their un-employment still at levels envious to the rest of the world's economies, how could the supposed deflationary recession be occuring?

Admittedly Japan's people are the consumate savers - with last I read about $66,000 US for each man, woman, and child (possibly dogs and cats too) the money does not appear to be flowing into the economy, but from what I've seen, everything appears just as it alway has. For me it boils down to Japan needing the export market, fed by our need for debt relief sustenance, and if ever either drops the ball or changes the rules, the game is over for both teams. Perhaps I'm not seeing what is under the surface there, as most of us don't see what is under the surface here? Good possibility, and if the substrate in Japan is anywhere near as mushy as here, we're all sunk. At least they've got that $66K - or do they?

Regarding gold as a wealth asset for the individual - everyone I've ever tried to talk to about gold, looks at me as if I'm trying to sell them a right hand drive American car. Most from my experience, (relatives primarily) seem to really trust their banking system, and seem really incredulous when I mention the possibility of bank failure, or the fact they are getting less than 2% interest, or that other Asian currencies were virtually wiped out recently. Oh well, we'll watch together. Sorry if this is not the quantitative analysis you were looking for, but sometimes the old adage about "figures don't lie, but liars can figure" comes to play.

Gold - got a yen for it?

Salutations
IronHead

Mountain TopPandagold#4749802/05/01; 14:52:21

I read with some interest your message that caused the reply by Dave C and your reply then to him. First of all let me say that I am an American whose travel to exotic lands has been limited to Canada and New Jersey <S> so I am obviously not qualified to give an opinion but, I would like to ask about poverty in places like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh when compared to the United States. After a lifetime of being told that I live in the wealthest country in the world where even our poorest are better off than most of the rest of the world and that people from most of the rest of the world dream of coming here, I am somewhat taken aback. That is not to say that I would be shocked to find out that I have been lied to by our politicians. Respectfully MT
goldfan@tg (msg#: 47466)#4749902/05/01; 15:25:33

Some thoughts in response....
>>>>More dollars won't be chasing the same number of goods, because the indebtedness of the American consumer is at a all time high.
(How do you get a horse that is quenched to drink more.)<<<<<

The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy.

>>>>It all comes down to a matter of confidence. The American consumer will eventually sense the fear of recession and tighten there belts.( They have already started)<<<

Agreed, and when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer.

>>>>I like this analogy from George Ure, "In the economy, as debt builds up, the economy has to move faster and faster to stay even. Debt load, like ice loading, causes a lack of lift. Beyond certain limits, debt is to the economy, what ice is to a wing. The Fed's moves are designed to keep the wing flying.

Debt is continuing to build up on the economic wing, and we're losing lift!<<<<

Yes and what crashes is the purchasing value of the currency.


>>>>Can some one out there tell me why Japan has been in a deflationary recession, eeven though over the last few years the goverment has gone into a massive credit expansion?<<<<

As I understand it, it is because the Japanese people save a huge proportion of what they earn, in their mattresses, or in the government post office bank. It means the government has to fund all sorts of projects to create vehicles in which the people's savings can be invested, even at practically no interest rate. Also, the Japanese trade surplus with the US (primarily) allows them to invest the US$ balance they get in US asset markets.

The Japanese people have obviously not lost confidence in their currrency. maybe this is because it is tied so closely to the US$, which is still perceived as strong.

Hope this is some help. These are just my opinions, I'm no expert.

Goldfan

BackwardatorJourneyman#4750002/05/01; 15:25:41

As a confirmed lurker, I lacked a password when your contest inspired me to participate. It just arrived, so in the hope my entries are still eligible, I humbly offer:

Fed-Wipes
Greenspasms
Shamplasters
DebtRags

AUtisticOne more time#4750102/05/01; 16:38:12

http://home.hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html

Since I've seen no replies to this link, which was posted yesterday, I can only assume, it's length (24 pgs.) is consuming peoples time, or it might be considered boring. (circa 1934) Perhaps, however, the saying still applies,-----Ignorance IS bliss!!!!!!!
Peter AsherBeesting, Ironhead: #4750202/05/01; 17:01:45

My instant replay on your (many thanks) Japan posts, suggest that the "Recession" in Japan is suffered by the predatory "wealth transfer" folks, whereas the people who actually produce something are doing OK. In order to draw any comparison analysis for looking at the US- boomerama, it would help to know what was the percentage of investment participation in their stock market at its peak.
PandagoldMountain Top#4750302/05/01; 17:10:40

I am amazed. I think I should organise a poverty tour - providing we could get adequate police protection as we tour some of the areas. And we don't don't need to travel too far from Manhatten, for some pretty bad places. (please see the section on New York in the stats). Do you remember the cabby's comment to Eddie Murphy when he dropped him off
in Queens (NY), after asking to be taken to a poor area of NY (I forget the movie) -"How shitty do you want it"

But there are people living in cardboard boxes (literally) in most of the large cites

What makes it so bad in America, is that it exists alongside, comparitively, such contrasting wealth. But America is not alone, as I have said, in the western world, it is just that the way it is projected by media - we don't, and apparently some Americans don't, expect such things to exist.

What I am talking about is people with no means of support, except begging, no home, no job, sleeping rough - in doorways, cardboard boxes.........I mean, how much futher down the ladder can you go.

What makes it different in the US from these other countries you mention is that the balance is different there is a greater percentage of poverty, larger populations, and the infrastructure reflects it.

My first trip to Hollywood, California, just walking down the Boulevard, I was accosted about four times for handouts.

I haven't the time to go into this further and put forward a more explicit paper. But glance through the folowing stats
especially the part at the bottom - how America stacks up

Thanks for the polite way you ask for explanation


One limited measure of the growth in homelessness is the increase in the number of shelter beds over time. A 1991 study examined homelessness "rates" (the number of shelter beds in a city divided by the city's population) in 182 U.S. cities with populations over 100,000. The study found that homelessness rates tripled between 1981 and 1989 for the 182 cities as a group (Burt, 1997).
A 1997 review of research conducted over the past decade (1987-1997) in 11 communities and 4 states found that shelter capacity more than doubled in nine communities and three states during that time period (National Coalition for the Homeless, 1997). In two communities and two states, shelter capacity tripled over the decade.

These numbers are useful for measuring the growth in demand for shelter beds (and the resources made available to respond to that growth) over time. They indicate a dramatic increase in homelessness in the United States over the past two decades.


Recent studies suggest that the United States generates homelessness at a much higher rate than previously thought. Our task in ending homelessness is thus more important now than ever

Poverty's Effect on Children
Unfortunately, not all America's poor have been so fortunate. According to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau in September 1996, 13.8% of Americans live in poverty. Many more are on the borderline. Poverty affects all ages, but an astonishing 48% percent of its victims are children:

About 15 million children -- one out of every four -- live below the official poverty line.

22% of Americans under the age of 18 -- and 25% under age 12 -- are hungry or at the risk of being hungry.

Everyday 2,660 children are born into poverty; 27 die because of it.

Children and families are the fastest growing group in the homeless population, representing 40%.

Poverty in New York City

Domestic poverty knows no geographical barriers, but it is especially widespread here in New York City. The latest study released in 1995 by the Citizens Committee for Children of New York reveals that New York children fare worse in virtually every category than their counterparts at the state and national level. This includes low birth weight, infant mortality, violence-related deaths, abuse and neglect, education, and job preparedness.

Life for New York City children is getting worse:

25% of New Yorkers are children.


762,000 children live in poverty.

181 babies are born into poverty each day.

10,000 children are homeless. This number has doubled since 1988.

In addition to these sad statistics, many New York City children read and do math below grade level. An estimated 38.9% of the city's school children will graduate high school, compared to 68.8% for all American students.



How the USA Stacks Up
Among the 21 most affluent nations, the United States has the highest percentage of poor children. In fact, our rate is twice that of the country next in line.

Furthermore, the September 1996 welfare reform bill cut $60 billion in aid to poor families within a period of six years. It is estimated that this will throw one million more children into poverty. Sadly, even though we are the richest industrialized nation, we are the stingiest with aid to our own children.

Prospects for Their Future
Too many young Americans go to bed with empty stomachs. They wake up to seemingly hopeless futures: school problems, unemployment, welfare, gangs, drugs, and crime. Children of poverty are more likely to suffer young and violent deaths.

Mentally and physically malnourished for the first five years of their lives, they are unable to keep up in class. One national study projects that almost a million children who will have started school in September 1996, will encounter serious problems. Many will drop out or finish high school functionally illiterate.

BoxmanPandagold, DaveC, and Mountain Top#4750602/05/01; 17:28:35

I think that Mountain Top's post #47498 is civil, however, subject to attack, as this appears to be Pandagolds modus opperandi. I am fully aware that all of the Knights at this round table are more than capable of defending themselves, but I have a brother like Pandagold. He has the inate ability to get belligerent at any hint of anything that he thinks, says or does may be called into question. He also has the ability to P*** O** the Pope, just by saying good morning. Maybe this is why I now open myself up to attack.

I apologize for taking up so much bandwidth, but felt that these three posts should be posted in their entirety, as one of the complaints from Pandagold is that things are taken out of context. I defy anyone to come to the conclusion that DaveC is anything other than civil with his response.

Pandagold, I have been trying to figure you out for some time now, and the only thing that I can come up with is that you are arrogantly snide. Go to Wyoming or some other western state, get some sun and wind on that ornery hide of yours and toughen up your skin.

Even though I am on a rant, and realize that I may suffer banishment from this forum, I will still be blunt. You are blatantly incorrect concerning the poor in this country versus the poor in the rest of the world. You remember my mention of my brother? He is poor, and homeless. Guess why? It is because this is the way he choses to live his life. Most of the homeless in this country have drinking, drug, or psychological problems.They are also generally misfits of society. They can not or will not abide by societies rules. Help is there for anyone that wishes it.

This is the last sentence of your post #47491 - "So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner"

Surley you jest?



Pandagold post #47477
I very much agree with what you say. America is a mixed bag of tricks. There exists some of the worst poverty in the world, and, on the other end of the spectrum, most of the extreme 'rich'

In California more riches are lavished by some on their pooches in one week, than a 'human-bean' has to live on for a whole year in some third world countries.

Unfortunately this sort of crap gets projected to the world.
Rarely is the more poverty side acknowledged by media ie the 'carboard cities' that abound. If ever we glimpse 'the other side of the tracks' it is usually in some 1920's era
setting, as though it only existed in the past.



I also know that most of this high living is on debt - a debt made possible by the rest of the world keep accepting these green iou's'.

Other parts of the western world are also enjoying a higher standard than they would if some of these 'banana republics'
got a little better deal than at present.

I have travelled far and wide, and not on one of these - 'It's Tuesday so it must be Paris' trips. So I know the score.

I know that we can never have an ideal world, and most people accept that, it is just that things have now become a bit skewed, don't you think. It is when you get extreme excesses and a diminishing cushion in between that the real problems start.

And that is where we are at. At least, that is how I see it.

I appreciate, and fully understand your comment.


DaveC post#47487
"There exists some of the worst poverty in the world" in the US?

I have travelled the world, and especially the USA, and I do not believe this to be true.

All you have to do is go down to Mexico and you will see life like nothing you can find in America.

At least not yet.


Pandagold post#47491:
You must pour though my postings with one thing in mind, not to understand the essence of what I write - incidentally
in this case acknowledging a comment from an American who was pointing out to me what I was acknowledging here (see the post to which this refers), but your objective appears to be finding one piece, take it out of context and try and score a point.

Never mind you having been to Mexico - where have you been in America? At least, if you live in a cardboard box in Mexico, you are reasonably warm - try it in Chicago, or New York, or Detroit, yes and London, in January.

There is also much more family togetherness in many of these countries which helps to make poverty more bearable.
When you have nothing in the US - man YOU HAVE NOTHING.

If you don't care for my postings, and can't see them in context and identify the essence,then pass them over PLEASE!

I am not anti -American, or anti any other country in this small world of ours. I have a son who is a US citizen by birth, and married to a US citizen. I also lived there many years and have friends all over the country. I travelled it in my job from North to South, East to West. I have seen the best, and the worst. I took US history at school in great depth.

So PLEASE! I do not mind fair comment or disagreement if it has some merit and suggested in the right manner

Mike

PandagoldBoxman#4750702/05/01; 17:37:17

Those statistics are not mine. I suggest you read them and digest.

That was not the first brush with Dave C.

You condemn yourself with your words.

PandagoldBoxman#4750802/05/01; 17:46:20

You probably chose to miss this in your reposts so I will reprint it for you


How the USA Stacks Up
Among the 21 most affluent nations, the United States has the highest percentage of poor children. In fact, our rate is twice that of the country next in line.

Furthermore, the September 1996 welfare reform bill cut $60 billion in aid to poor families within a period of six years. It is estimated that this will throw one million more children into poverty. Sadly, even though we are the richest industrialized nation, we are the stingiest with aid to our own children.

Prospects for Their Future
Too many young Americans go to bed with empty stomachs. They wake up to seemingly hopeless futures: school problems, unemployment, welfare, gangs, drugs, and crime. Children of poverty are more likely to suffer young and violent deaths.

Mentally and physically malnourished for the first five years of their lives, they are unable to keep up in class. One national study projects that almost a million children who will have started school in September 1996, will encounter serious problems. Many will drop out or finish high school functionally illiterate.

You also chose to avoid how I thanked Mountain Top for his courteous comments.

I would love to hear what your brother has to say about you

tggoldfan#4750902/05/01; 18:03:39

hello goldfan, thankyou for your ideas,

You say, "The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy".
But what happens if the consumer and corporations who are already deeply indebted, decide to pay off loans rather then borrow more.

You say, "when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer."
That is an assumption which may or maynot play out. What happens if there is asset deflation caused by a credit crunch? I think the public would rather be holding dollars under that scenario.

I am not sure my logic is sound, but as i see it if people are in debt, then they dont have any money to buy hard assets.

LeighHydroman#4751002/05/01; 18:08:12

Thank you for your interesting post! We're seriously looking into purchasing a tiny farm (4.5 acres) here in Northern Virginia, and I want to make it pay for itself in every way. We plan to landscape with nut trees and plant an orchard on one of the pastures. The house itself (a Depression-era cottage) gets its water from rainwater cisterns! I plan to set my nine-year-old to experimenting with different gardening styles (hydroponics, greenhouse, etc.). Not only will it be a fun change from our energy-hog house in town, but in the event of a breakdown in society, it will be a place to escape to.

It was exciting to read your post about hydroponics. Last summer I was paying $3.98 for hydroponic basil plants from Fresh Fields, and they only provided enough basil for a meal or two! So I'd like to be able to garden and get them for free.

Black Blade, Hydroman's right; your posts are amazing.

PandagoldMountain Top#4751102/05/01; 18:27:45

I tried to answer your question the best way I could, given I have little time. I tried to support it with some statistics.

I thanked you for the courteous manner in which you responded to my posting.

Now if my posting offended you, as Boxman says, then please tell me. I will then extend to you an apology, and will make that my last posting on this forum.

It rests with you
Pandagold

PandagoldTopaz#4751202/05/01; 18:30:52

Thank you for your help with my PC problem. It is a fairly new PC (Pentium 3) and it does have windows 98.

Excuse my ignorance but what is the 'OS' you refer to?

Hi-HatLeigh_____Heaven#4751302/05/01; 18:50:59

A Farmette is a little slice of heaven. I'm on 10 acres
myself. Have a large Gogher Turtle that lives under my
air conditioner unit. Deer,fox,armadillos,possums,monkey
squirrels,quail,raccoon, visit often.

Plenty of edibles growing. Best part of day is pulling
back down in driveway.

Peter AsherUSA Gold#4751402/05/01; 19:32:05

The Eagle has landed

Lady liberty has been properly fondled and tucked away, to awaken at the dawn of the new age.
Peter Asher@ Hydroman#4751502/05/01; 19:49:08

Have you tied these 'ponics in with "envelope" frame designs?

BTW 'ponics were already frequent inhabitants of sci-fi stories way back in the early fifties

Mountain TopPanda Gold#4751602/05/01; 20:20:47

Sir;
I was most assuredly not offended nor did I intend to offend. It seemed an opportunity to gain insight from one who has been in a position to see those things which I have not. Please do not leave this forum. I am sure that their are others besides me who can benefit from your postings. I am new on this board so it is entirely possible that the way my questions to you were worded did not convey that it was information I sought and in no wise questioned what you had said.

LA-ed BackStagflation: Some Notes#4751702/05/01; 20:55:22

I have been reading the posts on this board for some months now. I do not believe America's current economic condition has been characterized as stagflation by many participants.
Classical economists (Marx, von Mises, Keynes) never really had much to say about stagflation. I suspect that they did not believe this condition was possible. The last time there was much public discussion about the phenomenon was during the 'Seventies.
Central bank monetary policy is a blunt instrument. The bank can either increase the rate of monetary growth, reduce the growth rate, or turn the rate negative. Efforts to
"Channel" credit availability only create opportunities for arbitrage. The basic rule for the bank is simple: during recession, accelerate monetary growth. In boom times, reduce
the rate. In inflationary times, set the growth rate to negative.
But today, there is evidence of both recession and inflation. The Fed is on the horns of a dilemna. Any clear monetary policy will produce a large destructive result. This is stagflation.
I am aware of only four episodes of stagflation in America in the last one hundred years. The first was the 1929 - 1930 era. The second was the 1973 - 1974 era, the third was the 1980 - 1981 era, and the last one is now.
The first aspect of stagflation is the confusion it produces everywhere - in the central bank, in the major banks, among pension fund managers, and with the general public.
The second aspect of stagflation is that it follows hard on the heels of some major error of judgment in the capital markets. The 1929 error is a classic, but major errors were made in the "Favorite Fifty" stock market of 1973, and last year's dot-com and telecom mania. The 1980 - 1981 error was the real estate / second mortgage mania.
Political responses to alleviate the condition of stagflation have varied. The 1929 - 1930 response was the classical conservative Republican formula: cut government spending, increase taxes (preferably to foreigners), and wait. The intent was to reduce the cost of capital to Wall Street, allowing banks to work out the bad loans. The wealth preserved by the richer half of the population would, it was hoped, trickle down to the poorer half.
The 1973 - 1974 and 1980 - 1981 eras saw the liberal, Democratic approach: use price controls, increase government spending, use credit allocation controls, and raise interest
rates. The intent was to allocate purchasing power to the poorer half of the population. Money would flow to the richer half through the natural course of events.
Today's approach is as yet unformulated, largely because of the equal division of power between Democrats and Republicans. Since both parties want to keep Wall Street happy, I believe whatever produces the most income for investment bankers will be the policy adopted: easy money, and a lot of debt restructures.
The conclusion to all periods of stagflation is the same - all the quick, easy nostrums fail, and the nation experieces a nasty recession, at best.

The effects on gold are mixed. The 1933 financial collapse did wonders for gold, provided the owners of gold turned scofflaw. The 1980 - 1981 period's effects on gold's price are well known here. However, the modern era of uncontrolled gold prices began in January 1975. During the course of that year, the price of gold dropped in half, from $200/oz. to
$100 /oz.

BoxmanPandagold#4751802/05/01; 20:55:44

Pandagold, I have reread my post, and I can not find the statement where I said anything about offending Mountain Top. I only said that his post was subject to attack. Somehow, I seriously doubt that he was offended. Seems to me it's you that gets offended easily.

Sorry, I don't talk politics much anymore, as it is difficult in the extreme to have either side understand the other. I will say this though, when it comes to poverty statistics in this country, all forms of aid are conviently left out, and only raw income numbers are used. I have read in the past as to the staggering number of the "poor" have telephones, color televisions, cars, homes, air conditioning, and of course the "children" must always be mentioned. Starvation is, for all practical purposes, nonexistant. I guess that the government has not figured out how to get any of that 1.8 trillion dollars in tax money to the needy.

You also stated, in your last post; ""You probably chose to miss this in your reposts so I will reprint it for you"

and


"You also chose to avoid how I thanked Mountain Top for his courteous comments.""

Sorry, I had already sent my post before I had read yours. I doubt that I would have said anything, even had I read it, as it is irrelevant and unworthy of response.

And this:

"I would love to hear what your brother has to say about you""

As I said earlier, you are arrogantly snide.

This is the United States of America, the most giving country this world has ever known. We not only take care of our citizens that are in true need, but we are always to be counted on throughout the world whenever disaster strikes. We may not ask for help from outside whenever disaster strikes here, but it would be refreshing to at least get an occasional offer.

Well, enough of this drivel, back to lurking. This means that I am done with the banter. Just had to get you off of my chest.

Mike

IronHeadLady Leigh - Greetings and Congratulations#4751902/05/01; 21:06:28

Hello Grand Lady of this Castle Keep - always a treat to see your presence amongst the boyz. A hearty congratulation on your aquisition of the other "real" wealth.

Hydro is great for when the sun is too short, or the soil too poor, but nothing beats good organic dirt mixed by hand with a green manure of compost, and ole sol driving those seedlings to yield. Do to limited water availability my wife and I installed a hose type drip irrigation system for our herb and veggy garden, as well as our fruit trees. Works fantastic with great conservation of water, no leaf or fruit damage from over-head spray, and can be easily put on a timing system when away.

Hydroman is right in his analysis of what and why hydro can help to save mama earth. [I'd like to know what Sir Peter is refering to with his "envelope" frame design?]

Sorry if this is off topic, but without Wolavka to remind us that grain is golden, and even Sir FOA indicating his preference for home grown herbs, I guess we're in line, no?

Salutations
IronHead

Gandalf the WhiteQuiry to Lady Leigh #4752002/05/01; 21:43:43

The Hobbits are wondering if the P.O. proof package arrived the second time ? As I was coated in LEAD, it may have been slow in transport, BUT, all other packages have been acknowledged as having been recieved by the Goldhearts.
<;-)

Gandalf the White< ; - )#4752102/05/01; 21:47:05

NOW, if I could only learn to spell ANGRIT correctly !
<;-(

IronHeadBeesting, Peter Asher, Tree in the Forest - Japan Revisited#4752202/05/01; 22:20:32

Sir Beesting - Akemashte Omedeto! Your comments on Japan today brought back memories of a time I hope we avoid here in the US when our bubble really starts to vaporize, but I doubt it will be much different, particularly the real estate (GSE - Fanny Freddy) debacle ready to unwind. Thank you for putting Ironhead in the same sentence with a true American hero, one Andrew (Stonewall) Jackson - whom I put up with another great, Teddy Roosevelt.

Sir Peter Asher - Agree completely; that at what level was the average "Yoshiro" on the street participating at the height of the Japan apex, as well as what was the derivative /fund arena, a contributor to their market largesse and subsequent demise? I doubt that the equity derivative book was nearly what we've got set up here today. However, all the charts I've seen sure do draw some scary parallels, to what the final outcome might be. And I've got the same "feeling" in my bones that I did in Japan in '89.

Really enjoyed the badminton match betwix you and Sir Goldfan over the weekend - felt like I was watching a version of speed chess economics. Hey, what's that envelope frame system about? Any links? TIA

Sir Tree in the Forest - Ahh.... regarding your comment about "Japanese women making the best wives"...Ahh....I could really unleash a major faux pas with that one. Suffice to say, that may wife is the best I could ever hope for, and she just happens to be Japanese.....wheeeew....(hope that came across ok?)

On the subject of two wheelers: Remember, this life aint practice.....And.. "The more I know about women, the more I love my motorcyle".....Oh Oh....there's that faux pas!! Just in Jest folks!!

Tree - A Ride, get you one again!!

Salutations
IronHead

Sierra MadreJapan and the Japanese...#4752302/05/01; 22:49:43

With regard to the behaviour of the Japanese....

It seems to me that we cannot derive much instruction from the situation in which the Japanese currently find themselves, which may be of use in predicting how the American people will react to the problems ahead.
This, because the Japanese culture is so different from the American.

I would refer those interested, to Ruth Benedict's most interesting investigation of Japanese culture contained in her book, "The Chrysanthemum and the Sword".

This book, as I recall, was made possible by the interest the U.S. Government had, during WWII, of acquiring some insight into the motivation of the Japanese. That is, a "know your enemy" interest.

Again, as I recall, Benedict shows that the Japanese, at the time of her investigations, early 40's, were then a very highly unified people, completely identified with their Authorities, incarnated in the Emperor. Individualism was not, and perhaps still is not, considered a quality but rather a defect. Conformity to the accepted behaviour was a paramount value. Perhaps this is still the case, and what is accepted behaviour in Japan, is to accumulate paper money or paper money accounts.

To accumulate gold, would not appear to be an accepted pattern of behaviour. (Does anyone have information regarding the legality or illegality of gold purchases by Japanese?)

The Japanese were in the 40's, and perhaps they still are today, a people who did not wish to behave in inappropriate manner. Such behaviour was considered highly shameful, and perhaps this has not changed that much since WWII. That would explain why the Japanese are saving and saving, in a situation where we in the West would long ago have begun getting rid of cash and bidding up prices of things to the moon. Their behaviour is not our behaviour pattern.

The thought has struck me, that the final outcome of this Japanese persistence in accepted patterns of behaviour, will be a TOTAL DISASTER for Japanese culture, because eventually, the Japanese will lose, with the purchasing power of their accumulated bank balances, all faith in their Authorities. And when that happens, all hell is going to break lose in Japan together with the loss of confidence in everything that Japan stands for.

elevator guyCalling all erudite! Calling all erudite types!#4752402/05/01; 23:11:13

Hey, does anyone know about the National Republican Congressional Committee, in Washington DC? And the Business Advisory Council?

(I know, I know, I'm a dummy in civic matters.)

If anyone knows something about this organization, and committee, I'd be grateful for any info.

elevator guyHere's something on it, ....please stay in your seat.#4752602/05/01; 23:18:17

National Republican Congressional Committee - provides financial and political support to Republicans running for the House of US Representatives.

I'm going back in to see what else I can find out. (!!!)

Black BladeRE: Beowulf, tedw, ORO, and hydroman#4752702/06/01; 00:22:55

Beowulf #47421

In answer to your question about uranium producers, there are some still around. Cameco (CCJ) engages in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining and conversion of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. It also explores for, develops, mines and sells gold. Cameco is still in the uranium mining business. Another interesting company that I had stock in is Usec (USU). They are the world leader in the sale of uranium fuel enrichment services for commercial nuclear power plants. Uranium enrichment is a critical step in transforming uranium into fuel for nuclear reactors to produce electricity. I know that recently there has been a lot of discussion about implementation of a national nuclear power generating program. This will be a tough sell, even if a lot of people are inconvenienced with rolling blackouts, etc. There have been a lot of scare tactics over the years, and with nuclear breakdowns such as Three mile Island in Pennsylvania where the containment safeguards prevented disaster and with the outright disaster of Chernobyl in the Soviet Union where there were few safeguards, as well as propaganda films such as "China Syndrome", it does not appear that nuclear power will come to a town near you anytime soon. Unfortunately, there is still significant opposition to nuclear power in the US. Japan and France have been able to mitigate their power needs with several nuclear power generating facilities. Who knows, perhaps someday nuclear fusion will become a viable option. As it is, Duke Energy (DUK) has been buying nuclear power plants over the last few years. An expanded nuclear program would go a long way to achieving some independence from foreign oil. BTW, my youngest brother is a nuclear physicist who got his start as a nuclear engineer in the Navy and has since went on to get his Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics. He currently works at the DOE. As far as solar panels are concerned, they have come down in price and could probably become more cost effective for homeowners if electricity prices continue higher. The old solar panels were not of high quality and required some maintenance. However, I understand that some manufacturers have come a long way to improve their product. Astropower (APWR) has enjoyed a resurgence of sales and a higher stock valuation as well. Unfortunately it does not address the issue of power for many of the heaviest users in industry. Personal solar power units could definitely help and if prices are lowered, it could convince more people of the benefits.



Tedw #47370

Thankyou, I do hope you're referring to PETA (People Eating Tasty Animals). ;-)


ORO #47388

I understand where you're coming from with regard to the Alaska Initiative. I think that government involvement is inevitable. My point was that if there is going to be any effort to explore and produce NG and oil from Alaska, or anywhere else for that matter, then they had better get off their duffs and get to it. I think that it's already too late to avert a severe energy shortfall no matter what. I would suspect that the government would auction leases in ANWR as they do now in the Gulf Region. Anytime there is a way to profit from something, the FEDs will be there with both hands held out.

Hydroman #47505

Interesting post. Some of the best tasting tomatoes that I had other than vine ripened tomatoes, were hydroponic tomatoes. You simply can't find any decent tomatoes at a supermarket. I used to subscribe to "Mother Earth News" a few years ago. They had some good ideas on self-sufficiency. I'm not even sure if the magazine is still published but I enjoyed reading how many people were able to become self-reliant.

Black BladeNew plants won't solve energy crisis #4752802/06/01; 00:33:13

http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=2371.topic

Black Blade: I found this on another site. It is a good synopsis that demonstrates the problems in Kalifornia are far ranging. They are far from being "out of the woods" as far as energy needs are concerned. The lower NG prices today are based on the assumption that there will be warmer weather. The point missed by most everyone is that Kalifornia and many other parts of the country will be sucking up energy this summer. Not to mention that virtually all new power plants are NG-fired. That alone will further stress the NG supply. Next winter could be a disaster in the making.



California's power grid and transmission lines also must be upgraded to meet the state's rising energy needs, according to analyses

By Rick Jurgens TIMES STAFF WRITER

Even with new generation plants under construction and passage of a $10 billion plan to finance electricity purchases, California's "deregulated" energy market still is likely to be visited by power shortages and their familiar companions, rolling blackouts and higher prices.

That's because the state's power grid remains vulnerable to summer days that are too hot, winter nights that are too cold and weather patterns that deliver too little snow and rainfall to fill the reservoirs that supply water to Western hydroelectric plants. And California's network of transmission lines that move electrons from region to region also needs an expensive upgrade.

That's the view of the state's restructured electricity industry that emerges from studies by analysts, including some from the California Energy Commission, a state agency that monitors the energy markets and issues power plant permits. In the brave new world of electricity, problems defy obvious explanations -- too many computers, for example -- and easy solutions.

With the passage of a 1996 law, California set out to dismantle an electric industry legal framework first established in 1912, one in which regulated monopolies generated, transmitted and distributed power. The new system relies on private power generators to make profit-driven decisions about operations and whether to invest in new plants or upgrade existing ones.

Restructuring promised a more efficient, more innovative and less costly electricity system. But the promised benefits came with risks to the nation's most populous state and the world's sixth-largest economy. Already the changed system has threatened the budgets of residential users, raised operating costs for industry and chilled the state's business climate.

"Electric reliability in Western countries is the hallmark of the economy," said Doug Stevenson, a Boston consultant who worked in Ukraine in 1995 and 1996 as that country tried to upgrade its electricity system and end its reliance on the dangerous Chernobyl nuclear plant.

"When you lose reliability of electricity, you lose much more than a few minutes (of work) on your computer."

'Deep trouble' in summer

Things still look grim in the near term. "We are in deep trouble this summer," said Severin Borenstein, director of the Energy Institute at UC-Berkeley. Expected peak demands for electricity will be 50 percent higher than those that have recently pushed the state into daily Stage 3 alerts. In Stage 3 alerts, total generating capacity exceeds expected peak demand by less than 1.5 percent.

The Energy Commission expects there to be enough power for peak demands during the hot summer months, when air conditioners soak up electricity. The commission estimates that about 50,000 megawatts of generating capacity will be available to the California Independent System Operator's grid, while peak demand will be 47,000 megawatts to 50,000 megawatts, depending on the weather.

So far this winter, the weather gods have not been kind to West Coast electricity users dependent on the region's hydroelectric dams to help meet summer peak demands.

"The Columbia River Basin (is) snow-starved," said John Harrison, spokesman for Northwest Power Supply Council in Portland, Ore. "We are worried about having enough power to meet our own needs, let alone have a surplus" of power to send to California, he said.

Reservoirs are near the lowest levels in 60 years, and some of the stored water will be released to support the salmon and steelhead migrations, which begin in mid-April, he said.

Higher electricity prices and dry reservoirs in Oregon and other hydropower-reliant neighboring states that historically have exported power to California won't put them in a generous mood if power runs short, Borenstein said. "We are the ones who are going to eat the shortage," he said.

New generating capacity won't end the crunch right away. "California's energy crisis, absent mild summer and winter weather, likely will not go away until 2003," said Michael Schaal of Energy Venture Analysis in Arlington, Va.

But Karen Griffin, the Energy Commission's electricity analysis manager, said existing hydroelectric capacity should be available to meet peak demand on the summer's hottest days, as long as water is conserved by relying on other generators on non-peak days. Still, power will get to California only if generators and wholesalers sell it here, she said.

Market power

In 2000, rising prices sparked criticism of the new California markets, where wholesalers sell electricity to utilities. Generators and traders were accused of withholding electricity, using "market power" to force up prices.

Many observers saw evidence of such withholding in the loudly ringing cash registers of power suppliers to the ISO grid, where most California power flows. Total wholesale revenue for 2000 rose 276 percent, to $28 billion, from $7.4 billion in 1999 -- even as total consumption rose only 5 percent. Spot market prices reached $4,000 per megawatt/hour, far above the 1999 average price of $33..

An investigation by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees wholesale power markets, concluded that rising fuel and environmental costs, scarce supply, defective market rules and "some attempted exercise of market power" were all factors in summer price spikes. A follow-up study issued Friday found no evidence "inherently suggestive of a pattern of withholding" in November and December.

Borenstein said the market needs firm price caps to prevent future price surges. Such caps can be set high enough to avoid discouraging new investment, he said.

But a FERC staff report issued Friday said price caps would interfere with market operations and could be implemented only after "time-consuming and contentious" proceedings.

Supply and demand

Some observers say California's booming high technology economy caused the recent crisis. For example, Matthew White, a Stanford professor and utilities expert, said there was plenty of generating capacity as recently as 1996 and that the current crunch came after "dramatic and largely unanticipated growth in electricity demand."

But Energy Commission analysts say that electricity demand in the past year hasn't exceeded forecasts. "Current 'unexpected growth in energy use' from all sources was actually anticipated and foretold as long ago as 1988," a commission release said in December. Spokeswoman Claudia Chandler said that tracing the current crisis back to high tech users is an "urban myth."

In 2000, electricity consumption grew 4 percent, only about half of the 8 percent rate in 1984, which was the highest in the past 20 years, according to the Energy Commission. Industrial usage was up only 2 percent last year, half of the 4 percent increase in use by residential customers. The 2000 peak demand of 53,300 megawatts was below the 1998 peak of 54,700 megawatts and within the range of forecasts, the commission said.

Still, power plants weren't built to meet the growing demand. Only about 1,000 megawatts of additional capacity came on line in California in the past decade.

No single culprit holds the smoking gun of responsibility for the lack of investment in new generators. The state's sagging economy during the mid-1990s discouraged new investment. More popular scapegoats, especially for power developers and conservatives, include the state's strict environmental standards and a permit process that takes longer than that in other states.

But Borenstein said that since 1996, when the restructuring law passed, a bigger factor has been uncertainty about what rules would govern electricity competition.

At last, new power plants are coming. Including six plants already under construction, nine plants with 6,300 megawatts of new capacity have been approved and are scheduled to be on line by the end of 2003. Permit applications have been filed for another 12 plants with 7,600 megawatts, although that includes some upgrades of existing capacity.

Calpine Corp. of San Jose expects to open two new 500-megawatt plants, including the Los Medanos facility in Pittsburg, as early as the beginning of July, said Bill Highlander, a company spokesman.

The company remains "bullish" on California, where it eventually hopes to own at least 8,000 megawatts of generating capacity, although it would like to see the permit approval process shortened, he said.

All in all, the Energy Commission sees relief coming. "If 11 large power plants are put into service between 2001 and 2003, there would be more generation available than load growth requires over most of the ensuing decade," a February 2000 study concluded.

But commission analysts worry about a boom-and-bust cycle, in which high electricity prices attract surges of investment, then resulting excess capacity drives down prices and discourages any new investment.

"Future generation resource additions will not occur in a smooth, even pattern, but will more likely occur in a cyclical pattern, resulting in periods of excess and lean generation capacity," according to the February 2000 study.

But after years of stagnation, California's electricity developers don't see much near-term danger of overbuilding. All the approved capacity would increase in-state generating capacity by only 13 percent.

New power plants alone won't cure the state's electricity ills. Avoiding a power crisis in a restructured market will require investment in new transmission lines that can be used to send electricity throughout California and the West as demand rises and falls in different regions.

Limited capacity on the Path 15 line connecting Northern and Southern California has contributed to recent shortages here, and a 1996 outage on lines connecting California to the Northwest caused major problems. Public Utility Commission President Loretta Lynch estimated that new transmission lines will cost at least $1 billion in California, and she said it isn't clear where that money will come from.

Lower reserve margins

One likely side effect of restructuring is a long-term loss of operating reserves -- generating capacity that can be fired up when there are unexpected increases in demand or reductions in supply.

"Reserves will be lower in a competitive market as compared to a regulated market because of economic pressure to use resources more efficiently," the February 2000 Energy Commission study warned.

Reserves protect the power grid against damage that can occur almost instantly if total electricity load exceeds the power generated. A gradual increase in load beyond capacity causes a brownout that damages electric motors, such as refrigerators, and electronic equipment, such as computers, White said. A sudden loss of generation triggers circuit breakers throughout the grid, causing widespread blackouts that are costly and time-consuming to restore.

Chandler, the Energy Commission spokeswoman, noted that the cost of plants to provide reserves has historically been borne by ratepayers.

"With all the privatization of the generators, what entity will absorb the cost of this insurance policy?" she asked. As a regulated monopoly, the reserve margin -- the proportion of extra generating capacity available over peak demand -- in the California grid typically ranged from 15 to 20 percent, according to the Energy Commission. But commission analysts project that private investors will aim for a reserve margin of 7 percent.

Borenstein said the physical grid can be protected with reserve margins that low, but Schaal said a margin of as much as 18 to 20 percent might be needed to prevent price gouging.

"Declining reserve margins have opened the door, at least to some degree, to manipulation of the power markets," he said.

Restructuring payoff

Restructuring advocates promised a more efficient electricity system with lower costs. Maybe those promises will be kept, but not without some pain.

"Regulated investor-owned utilities in the United States have done a reasonable job of efficiently generating power, given their portfolio of generating assets," said Borenstein and James Bushnell, another UC-Berkeley professor, in a 2000 paper. "The prospects for short-run efficiency gains on the supply side of this industry are quite modest."

But the pre-restructuring utility rates reflected the costs of running expensive nuclear and alternate-fuel generating facilities built by utilities with the approval of state regulators. "What is 'broke' in this industry is the process that produced those poor investment decisions," said Borenstein and Bushnell.

And once the financial mess is cleared up and a functioning market system is put in place, a restructured electricity system could be made reliable, said Griffin of the Energy Commission: "Physically, it's a solvable problem."

TopazPandagold#4752902/06/01; 00:38:47

Hi Panda,
OS refers to the Operating System (Win98 in your case)

On the poverty issue, "poverty" really needs a tighter definition, yes?
One can't compare a "poor" (say) Chinaman with a poor American as there are different forces at work in each case. The "real" difference is more a question of degree of contentment with their "lot".
The poor American is indeed the poorer as he watches the world pass him by at first hand, while the financially poorer China (oblivious to a large extent of his plight) goes about life in ignorant bliss.

One more thing - Why is it that, in the 100 odd years since "Britannia ruled the Waves", Brits have not outgrown their Superiority Complex?
Not meant personally ol' bean.... and DO keep posting.

Peter Asherlink doesn't work on this directly#4753002/06/01; 00:44:35

The superstate is history, says sceptic at EU's heart

The scholar making waves in Brussels talks to
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

TEN years ago, Frits Bolkestein was the pin-up boy of
Holland's Euro-sceptic movement, reviled by the Left for
his Thatcherite views.

Now this polyglot Greek scholar, mathematician and oil
man holds one of the most powerful jobs in Brussels -
single market commissioner. And he is starting to send
shockwaves through the system. Not content to press for the
privatisation of everything from post offices to pensions,
he is calling this week for an end to the idea of tax
harmonisation in the European Union.

He says the EU should stop meddling in matters best left to
the nation states, such as social affairs, culture and
education, if it wants to salvage its credibility and avoid a
populist backlash. For good measure, he adds that French
pre-eminence in Brussels is finished.

In an interview with The Telegraph, he said Britain's
Euro-sceptics were out of date in thinking that the EU
system was rigged against the Anglo-Saxons, or that it was
moving towards a federal superstate. However, he
acknowledged that there was still "a danger of a creeping
process, of more and more things becoming the subject of
legislation in Brussels".

He said: "Federalism is something we should forget about,
because it is not going to happen. When we enlarge in
Eastern Europe, we will absorb the union states which
have vivid and sad recollections of supra-national rule
from Moscow. They have regained their sovereignty and
their independence.

"The thought that they would voluntarily subsume their
national identities in a European federation is an illusion.
The Poles are not going to like that. Nor the Czechs." Mr
Bolkestein said the Franco-German axis was breaking
down as Berlin found its own voice and embraced,
unsteadily, perhaps, the free market, pulling away from a
western neighbour still in thrall to the outdated concepts of
state control.

What was emerging instead was a radically different
Europe that resembled the "concert of powers" of the 19th
century where Britain could play its old role of power
broker. He said: "We're facing a period of shifting
alliances, and that enables Britain to lend its support to
whichever party would serve British interests best."

But he cautioned that this should not be confused with a
return to Splendid Isolation, where Britain intervened only
to prevent the emergence of any single, dominating power
on the Continent. Mr Bolkestein said that role was now
played by the United States.

While Mr Bolkestein admits that the European Central
Bank, as well as the European Court of Justice, has a
"federal" character, he says that it does not follow
automatically that the euro will force further moves
towards federal integration.

He argues that Economic and Monetary Union can be made
to function along the lines of the gold standard between
1870 and 1914 when the major powers were locked
together successfully in a single currency system without
having to surrender political control.

Mr Bolkestein became embroiled in European politics in
1991, as leader of the Dutch Liberal Party, when Brussels
tried to ban tobacco advertising. "Tobacco was a legal
product, and the union was subsidising Greek tobacco
farmers," he said. "I started to ask myself why on earth was
the union trying to ban advertising. I felt this was a matter
for the member states."

He said that in the old days the European "system" was one
of ever-closer union, and the acquisition of ever-greater
powers, by a process of stealth. "We decide on something,
leave it lying around, and wait and see what happens. If no
one kicks up a fuss, we continue step by step until there is
no more turning back."

That game must be ended, said Mr Bolkestein. If it is not
stopped, the EU will lose its legitimacy and "implode" the
next time it runs into a crisis.

Black BladePrice of Propane Making It Harder to Keep Warm#4753102/06/01; 00:44:56

By PETER T. KILBORN
Rodney White for The New York Times



INDIANOLA, Iowa, Feb. 2 — White is the color of cold in Iowa this winter, with perennially white skies folding into silent white pastures and fields of corn stubble. Behind white clapboard farmhouses, only the white tanks, shaped like snub-nosed submarines, offer protection from a winter that began as the coldest recorded around here and has almost two months to go. The tanks contain a liquefied gas called propane, the sole source of heat for 149,000 rural homes in Iowa, or 14 percent of all homes in the state, and for 8 million others across the upper Midwest and the Carolinas. Normally a manageable expense, accounting for up to 4 or 5 percent of a family's income, the price of propane has jumped to its highest levels, doubling or tripling in one year in many places. For many households, especially those on low and fixed incomes, filling the tank for a month can cost more than the rent or the mortgage payment. "It ticks you off when you get shafted like that, and you can't do anything about it," said Norman Heck, 69, who after 10 years has all but completed building his cedar- sided retirement dream house outside Indianola, 25 miles south of Des Moines. Spotless, meticulously decorated, the house has three bedrooms, a pantry and a soaring cathedral ceiling, with a wall of glass overlooking the family's 40 hilly acres of land. "It used to cost $400 to heat this place, all winter," Mr. Heck said. "Now we're looking at $1,700." Mr. Heck had some good jobs over the years, most of them in construction. But after rearing seven children, he and his wife, Janet, 67, live on a fixed income, most of which is their Social Security benefit. Without a penny of debt, they thought they could get along. Because of the cost of propane, the Hecks have been able to turn for help to a federal energy assistance program for the poor that picked up $360 of their January bill. But they will need another delivery in two or three weeks and are ineligible for more aid, so they are bailing out. "They've priced us right out of here," Mr. Heck said. "We're going to sell this house and build a smaller one. It was great while it lasted."

In the nation's cities and suburbs, propane is an incidental fuel for blowtorches, for cooking on outdoor grills or for running the few vehicles that are propane-powered. But in the country, propane is prized as historically cheap, clean and versatile. A liquid that vaporizes at temperatures as low as 44 degrees below zero, propane heats homes and barns, cooks, dries crops and runs clothes dryers, water heaters, irrigation pumps and some tractors. And the rare spurts in price take a disproportionate toll on people with modest incomes. In Iowa, as in most states, no one requires a propane company to deliver to a customer who cannot pay. The propane companies say it is uneconomical to deliver fewer than 200 or 300 gallons, so a customer who can pay for only 100 is out of luck.

In Thursday morning's ear-burning cold, yet another blizzard was sweeping snow over the ice-packed gravel road to the weathered and white century-old home of Michaela Prexl, 29, in Carlisle, 12 miles southeast of Des Moines. Ms. Prexl lives there with her 4-year-old son, 2-year- old niece, mother and three dogs. Ms. Prexl cannot work. Three years ago, she said, "I crushed my legs in a car wreck." She collects about $8,000 a year in disability benefits, food stamps and cash assistance. She does not have good credit or much money in the bank, so she cannot charge her gas purchases or sign a contract in the summer for her winter deliveries, locking in lower prices. Before the March thaw, she is likely to have spent around $1,100, or nearly 14 percent of her income, to keep replenishing the 1,000-gallon tank outside the kitchen window. On the kitchen table, she spreads out three years of receipts from Warren County Oil in Indianola, her supplier. She bought about 750 gallons in the winter of 1997-98, for which she paid an average of 60 cents a gallon, or $450. In October 1998, detecting a bargain with the price down to 50 cents, she bought 700 gallons for $350. That was enough to carry her through the ensuing mild winter. But by December 2000, the price had almost doubled, to 98 cents. She paid $264.60 for 270 gallons. "On Jan. 10, I was empty again," she said. "I had to put 350 in there." By now the price was $1.24, so she paid $434. This week, Warren County Oil's price had slipped a bit, to $1.16. But with February barely begun, she is likely to need another 500 gallons. Like the Hecks in Indianola, Ms. Prexl is getting some help — a grant of about $480 — through the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.

Jerry McKim, chief of the bureau that manages the program in Iowa, said 206,000 households were eligible for aid because their incomes fall below $25,575 for a family of four, or 150 percent of the federal poverty line. Of those households, he estimated that 75,000 will have applied by March, 13,000 more than last year, and that 15 percent of those that apply burn propane. "I have taken hundreds of calls," Mr. McKim said. "I get grown men who all say the same thing: `Never in my life did I think I couldn't make it on my own.' Elderly ladies call. Their voice cracks. They've got a monthly income of $500 and a bill for $800. They think their only alternative is to sell their homes. That's what's going on. We're not talking anecdotes here." Because of the season's unusual cold, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration reported this week that nearly 19 million gallons of propane, almost a third of the entire national supply on hand in October, were burned in December, the most ever burned in one month. But there are other reasons, too, for the jump in prices. A byproduct of oil and natural gas processing, propane has been caught up in the supply-and-demand upheaval in the nation's sources of energy. High natural gas prices leave producers with little incentive to extract propane from their gas, said Daniel N. Myers, executive vice president of the National Propane Gas Association. And rather than pay high natural gas prices for fuel for their own processing, oil refineries switched to using the propane that they produce and normally sell, thus diminishing the supply. "And they're still doing that," Mr. Myers said. Hundreds of miles down the line from the refineries and processing plants is Indianola. Routinely, LaVerta Foust, Mr. McKim's area supervisor, calls propane dealers, shopping for prices for her clients. The 16 dealers she called on Monday quoted prices ranging from $1.10 to $1.49 a gallon.

Warren County Oil has one of the lower prices, at $1.16. The company is a threadbare-looking business, occupying a single-story yellow brick building the size of a gas station in the center of Indianola. Joe Bell, the general manager, says he tries to accommodate customers who have trouble paying so that he can deal with a squeeze of his own. When Mr. Bell picks up propane at his supplier's depot in Des Moines, he is given 10 days to pay. "Most of our customers expect 30 days to pay," he said.

Among Warren County Oil's customers is Joyce Mastin, who recently moved to Indianola. Her husband, David Mastin, works as a store manager at a mall in Des Moines while she stays home with their four children.With little credit in town as yet, the Mastins cannot open a charge account with the company. So to pay the $243.60 charge for Monday's delivery, Ms. Mastin said, "I had to postdate a check, to Feb. 9. They suggested that."

Black Blade: The Hecks, Ms. Prexl, and the Mastins can take comfort in the fact that energy costs are not in the core rate of the CPI. They are constantly told by the talking heads that inflation is benign. Why heck, Larry Kudlow says that because the price of gold is low, there's no inflation. The drivel that is spewed out by Wall Street is that there is no inflation and so everyone should buy stocks now. In other words, "Come on in! The water's fine." Yeah, just watch out for those inflation sharks - they got a nasty bite!

Black BladeTerminator Comes to Sacramento?#4753202/06/01; 00:52:17

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010205/d2.html

A snippit from the article at the URL


SCHWARZENEGGER MAY ACT

Davis has faced widespread criticism during the crisis for failing to act decisively and on Monday a man with a reputation for action -- actor Arnold Schwarzenegger -- said he may follow in the footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan who left acting and was elected Governor of California in 1966.

``It comes down to leadership. You have to take risks and be able to just say, 'I've taken my best shot.' And that is what is lacking,'' Schwarzenegger told the Los Angeles Times.

Schwarzenegger, who is wealthy enough to be able to finance his own campaign, said he have movie obligation through 2004 ''but I would sacrifice, you know, $20 million a picture and all those things and forget about that to step in.''

Black BladeNatural gas gripes largely misdirected#4753302/06/01; 01:13:33

http://www.starnews.com/news/articles/gas0205.html

Effects of federal policies, not utilities, boost prices.
By Bill Koenig
Indianapolis Star
February 5, 2001

During the past two months, natural gas customers have reeled as they received monthly bills that had doubled or tripled over the previous year. They called their gas utilities frantically wanting to know why. They telephoned state regulators, complaining about what they called the greed of utilities. As it turned out, consumers were contacting two of the groups with the least say over natural gas prices. Even House Republicans, who last week proposed that Indiana stop collecting sales tax on residential natural gas bills for six months, acknowledged the state has few options to control soaring costs. The reasons for gas price hikes took place "beyond the borders of our state," said House Minority Leader Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis.

Indeed, policies to promote clean air and preserve the landscape are at least part of the reason consumers now are feeling the pinch of higher natural gas costs. What's happening is a textbook example of how public policies can have far-reaching consequences years after being put into effect. During the past eight years, federal regulators urged industrial users to switch from dirtier fuels like coal to cleaner ones like natural gas, increasing demand for the fuel from producers of electricity and other industrial users. Historically, natural gas primarily had been used to heat homes. Now, much of the new demand comes from business. At the same time, exploration of new natural gas fields in places like the Rocky Mountains and off the East and West coasts have been off limits for environmental reasons -- just as production from established fields is declining. That has meant fewer supplies of natural gas flowing into the market. Environmentalists say there are good reasons for those policies, mainly that people breathing cleaner air get fewer lung diseases. "In the long run, switching away from coal-fired technology to gas is going to save lives," said Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global energy project.

The answer is to extend existing supplies of gas through conservation. "There's a lot of gas around," he said. "It's very easy to say -- it's unarguable to say -- if we used less, our supplies would go farther." Right now, though, consumers are being asked to choose between cleaner air or lower gas bills. "That's not much of a choice," said Mary Rhoades of Franklin, an Indiana Gas Co. customer. "Everybody wants to breathe clean air. I don't know anything about this. I'm just a widow woman trying to get by paying the least that I can." Customers who've seen skyrocketing bills aren't in the mood to cut their gas utilities any slack. "I'd like to have cleaner air but I'd like lower gas bills," said Delores Drake of Indianapolis, whose bills for her 83-year-old house went from $88 a month to more than $220. "The people who own the gas company have a lot of money. They're getting ridiculous." She's a customer of the municipally owned Citizens Gas & Coke Utility.

Others are more philosophical. "Over the long term, I have to go with clean air," said Frances Stone of Indianapolis, a Citizens customer. "I think God gave us the earth and we do need to protect it." But that doesn't mean she will enjoy paying her $169.97 January bill, which is up from $83.67 a year earlier. "It does seem like a horrendous hike. That's a pretty big shock." As a result of the rising prices, one major local institution has taken a step back on the environmental front. Indiana University, which began switching some of its coal-fired boilers to natural gas in 1989, changed back to coal this year when natural gas prices went so high. For decades, a massive coal pile was a landmark on the north side of the Bloomington campus. The coal pile disappeared when the school made the partial change to natural gas because it burns cleaner, said Gary Kent, an assistant vice president at the university. When natural gas prices slumped dramatically three years ago, the school converted four of its six boilers so they could burn gas or coal and, as a result, they used more natural gas, Kent explained. But when prices shot up last year, "you were almost to the point of burning dollar bills," he added. And so the school went back to using coal exclusively, savings about $700,000 this winter.

In Downtown Indianapolis, government agencies, hospitals and businesses have been spared the brunt of the gas hikes because of a century-old steam heat system that runs beneath the city. The heat for these buildings is supplied by steam, keeping temperatures and utility bills relatively steady through the winter. But still, Indianapolis does have some buildings heated by natural gas and, as a result, has seen its bill increase to $63,814 for the period from early December through early January, compared to $31,452 last year. For a number of years, however, natural gas was relatively inexpensive for governments, businesses and individuals. Just three years ago, the price of gas dipped below $2-per-million-BTU, causing many independent producers to shut down their operations. (One million British Thermal Units is a standard measurement of natural gas; one BTU is the amount of energy required to heat one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit.) As a result, supplies were down just as demand climbed and colder-than-normal weather struck in late 2000. That's when the price on the short-term gas market shot up as high as $10-per-million-BTU last month. Prices have moderated since, but they're expected to remain around $5-per-million BTU throughout this year.

Production is now increasing again, but too late to make a difference this winter. That's left consumers screaming about their bills and utilities with a public relations headache. State law prohibits them from earning profits on the cost of gas itself. The higher rates they've charged pays their cost of gas but nothing else. "It's frustrating because the local company is the entity the consumer knows," said Greg Schenkel, president of the Indiana Gas Association. "They don't know the intricacies of the gas business. They just look at who they're paying." And state regulators are trying to nibble at the edges, trying to find some small relief for consumers. The Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission ordered a small cut in rates for Indiana Gas Co. customers, saying the utility hadn't bought gas in the most efficient way. But the expected effect on rates, which will occur in March, April and May bills, will be small. "The commission acknowledges its lack of control over the market price of gas," said Michael Leppert, the commission's executive director. "Everyone looks for comprehensive answers, and we don't have any." Right now, House Republicans are pressing for a tax break for gas customers by having the state drop the 5 percent sales tax for six months, retroactive to last October. Under their plan, a customer whose gas bills average $200 a month would get a $60 credit in April. They argue that the state has gotten a windfall from the higher gas prices -- an estimated $50 million and $75 million in extra state sales tax revenue. But officials like Rep. B. Patrick Bauer, D-South Bend, chairman of the budget-writing House Ways and Means Committee, say that's only half the story because the state also is paying higher natural gas costs. While the Statehouse and two main state office buildings Downtown are steam-heated, there are various state facilities that are heated by gas. Bauer said preliminary estimates indicate the state is paying around $8 million more for natural gas this winter and that state universities are paying $8 million to $12 million.


Black Blade: Clean air is definitely desirable. Doesn't do much good if you freeze to death though. Again, the higher costs will be passed on to the consumer one way or another. The myth of "benign inflation" just won't hold water as this story continues to unfold across the US. It will drag on the economy, yet the talking heads will continue to spin the story that "all is well" or "it will get much better." They also continue to point to a recovery in the market. It doesn't really look that healthy though. There will be some funds flowing into the market in order to beat the April 15th deadline to take advantage of IRA contributions for the year 2000. However, the funds are concentrated in a few issues that drive up the DOW (an index with only 30 stocks and 9 of which are cyclicals). There is a perception of safety in the big name stocks and in a few "defensive" sectors. It could just all come apart in the next couple of months. Many of these talking heads recently said that no one should talk about a recession! Let's see, bury our collective heads in the sand and it just might go away? Some strategy – See on evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. All I can say is "Good Luck!"

TopazPeter Asher (02/06/01; 00:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 47530)#4753402/06/01; 01:24:55

Hi Peter,
That article really puts it all on the table doesn't it?
Retention of sovereignty - quazi Gold standard - Yes, it's all coming together.

OROSierra Madre - character norms and economics#4753502/06/01; 01:30:42

Thanks IronHead and others for the Japanese economy and culture discussion.

I want to make just one observation regarding Japan's and Japanese' seemingly odd behavior. When one looks at Japanese make work programs, now running at over 20% of GDP, and having accumulated to 126% of GDP in government debt (ours is now 55%, having reached near 100% before), we see the result in their sliding real trade surplus, their still extremely high prices, and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.

In short, Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters are the source of the high prices and the declining excess in trade. The government has priced labor out of exporter's employ by hiring people for make work projects, while maintaining trade conditions favoring exports and resisting imports. As a response to the high prices, people in Japan add to their savings rates, though consummate savers by tradition and because of their rather high age, it is because they are priced out of the market that they are saving so much more today than before.

Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily. Furthermore, much of the paper in these accounts is still yielding very high rates relative to new paper. It was only last year that these accounts started to mature, and people now face the decision of what to do with the old money. The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust). Furthermore, the characteristic Japanese choice in response to low interest rates is to take the cash and stuff it in the mattress. At least one can be sure that the mattress won't go under, even if it may go up in smoke.

For the new hire in Japan, a late age marriage (their folks married early) and the baby bust make income for the talented very good. For the new blue collar and low level office worker, things are not so hot because where his predecessor's income improved from the economies of scale achieved with a growing adult population and growing export markets up to the 80s, he faces overstaffed production floors, offices, and few prospects of improvement. The low management people are old and ageing, and have lost track of the markets, which has changed under them. Maintaining seniority rules prevents companies from replacing these people with younger ones who are more attune to the times.

Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock. The downside has been the retention of non-viable businesses that would have to close anyway, consuming capital and keeping workers occupied in uneconomical jobs and preventing them from changing skills.

The other success, a very temporary one to be sure, has been the maintenance of low price inflation. Japan has increased money supply and debt asset supply (government debt) without causing higher prices because they maintained their export surplus and not allowed much dishoarding of dollar assets. The result has been a rather quiet price picture as Yen assets finance dollar and foreign assets (which allow us to buy Japan's exports) rather than go into the economy directly. The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid while make work programs are shut down, i.e. higher taxes.

Low income from investments is also pushing the huge Japanese baby boom generation to save more because they are expecting not to have sufficient income coming out of their investment portfolio at current rates, and they have not considered anything but paper as investments since prices have yet to be cause for worry.

Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days, when a larger portion of Japanese labor will be occupied taking care of the elderly and will not be able to work in production. The "new people" will be less loyal to Japanese products, and tend to buy more independently, requiring less salesmanship. This will change retailing in Japan and allow greater competition for consumer business as well as more competition for supply contracts. Most of all, it will put price higher on the agenda for the Japanese consumer.

TopazAh! Panda.......those were the days my friend...we thought they'd never end#4753602/06/01; 02:36:40

http://www.slonet.org/~ied/frthzyyz.html

<snip> During the time of classical colonial imperialism, human rights and democracy were not yet the norm. The early ruling of colonies under trading companies (East India Company, Africa Company, Hudson Bay Company, etc.) was quite straightforward: Demonize those targeted for dispossession of their land and resources (or even their life); defeat those weak, primitive, and typically gentle cultures; push those too weak to defend themselves off their land or off the face of the earth (North America, some of Latin America, Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii); and establish colonial governments to dictate policy over more culturally advanced and denser populations (India, China, Egypt, Algeria, the Middle East). The rest of the colonial world (most of Africa, much of Latin America) simply involved too large a territory and too many people, and there was not enough time, for European settlers to dispossess them of their land. <unsnip>
An excellent site that ties in with your interests Sir.

Link via Sharefin@Kitco Tks.

working-kirkYou thought people were screaming about high oil prices?#4753702/06/01; 02:39:59

Black Blade, I enjoy your post on energy but if you thought people were screaming about high oil prices, you haven't SEEN nothing!

Why do I say this?

Because, many utilities bill ahead. They can determine your useage but not the price of fuel, oil, whatever by the time you receive the bill. So they price the fuel what is cost in November. Novemeber was using Autumn's prices for oil. Naturally Useage and costs increased for Winter. So now it is Februrary. Your bill will show the fuel cost for December. There was a major price hikes in December. However you are now just being billed for it. Now the Autumn season was high, but now many people are going to be
billed for the Winter. I just read today a major snowstorm hit the Northeast. Like I predicted a week or so, there will be one or two last major storm of the season. Do you
know what else I predicted? The slowdown in shipments will be hitting us in Feb.

So you have price hikes over price hikes.
You have major storm
You will have some oil and fuel shortages

My challage to you black blade is to give us your best guess as to what will happen next since of all the people in this forum you seem to be the most knowledgable about oil

PandagoldTopaz#4753802/06/01; 03:18:56

I thank you for the link, but it will not let me get beyond what appears the 'home' page. I tried all the clicks, but the little world (icon)just turns and turns.

I was particularly interested to hear what they had to say about the Kennedy assassination

Did you miss my other posting to you last night in which I thanked you for the help with my PC but asked to explain what means 'OS'?

Black BladeRE: working-kirk#4753902/06/01; 03:23:00

If I knew what would happen in the future I'd be a very wealthy individual. I wish I knew. The pundits can spin a good yarn and influence the markets. Oil is a tough one since there isn't necessarily a shortage in the traditional sense. There is a growing shortage of "cheap oil" and "cheap energy." OPEC is a wild card. Anything can happen. If Ariel Sharon becomes PM of Israel for example, as seems likely, the Arab members of OPEC could get wound up especially if Sharon were to take a very hard stance toward the Palestinians. That could rile the Arab world. Then again, they could decide that they aren't getting fair value for their finite resources and cut production even further. It's a tough call. Another variable would be the depreciation of the US Dollar. Since oil is priced in US Dollars, that could also create a number of problems. What if more OPEC members follow Iraq's lead and demand payment in Euros? Of course with summer approaching, there could be higher usage of oil distillates (i.e. gas and diesel) during the so-called "driving season." Last summer gasoline and diesel prices were higher. There were demonstrations by truckers in Europe as well as in the US. Could there be a repeat? Possibly. Over time oil and oil distillates will rise in price. It is inevitable. You could read my previous post: "The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" for a more detailed explanation of why I believe that oil prices are destined to rise. The Bull Market economy that we have enjoyed over the last few years has been fueled by cheap oil and cheap energy. Now prices are much higher and there are threats to reliable sources of energy as we have seen in California. These threats have spread out into other regions and are likely to take a toll on the economy. Someone must pay the cost. That someone will be the consumer. The question is will it be next year, the year after, etc. The "Super Giants" (very large world class oil fields) have been discovered because they are so large they were easy to find and produce oil. Now we must find "Giants" (large oil fields) if we can and develop processing more costly low quality oil and non-conventional oil (tar sands, high sulfur oil, heavy crudes, etc.). We have cruised along on borrowed time and though we knew that the day of reckoning was approaching, we still somehow were caught flat-footed and unprepared. We had 30 years to prepare for some degree of self reliance and we utterly failed. As far as NG is concerned, we could have a real mess on our hands. In California, summer is when energy usage doubles. There is very little snow pack in the Sierra's and there is not much snow pack in the northwest as well. Hydroelectric power is in doubt and NG power will therefore be at its limits. If anything, we will be headed for "interesting times."
PandagoldCovering their butt#4754002/06/01; 03:34:20

The following is an excerpt from an article by Andrew Sparrow in the Telegraph:-

"......GORDON BROWN made a profit from selling some of the UK's gold reserves and investing in the ailing euro currency, MPs were told yesterday.
A senior Treasury official said that, even though the euro had fallen in value, the Government had not lost out because investments in euros also paid interest, unlike gold. Gus O'Donnell, head of macro-economic policy and international finance at the Treasury, also insisted the Chancellor's policy of selling gold was not related to the Government's desire to join the euro.............

Elections are due anytime now in the UK. Blair's government
is coming under heavy fire. Watch for them covering their butt - especially trying to prove that selling our gold was a good move.

One of the reasons that I think POG will be capped for a while is that it would look very bad if the price shot up much beyond what we sold it at.

Talking about elections -Israel votes today. There is a hot bed of trouble brewing if ever there was one. And gold loves trouble (or did)

Black BladeNatural Gas Supply Problems Ahead?#4754102/06/01; 03:40:58

Source: Steven King's Black Gold and PetroDispatch

Black Blade: working-kirk asks what would be a best guess on what will happen next on oil and presumably NG. This article from Black Gold and PetroDispatch is quite interesting and demonstrates the potential difficulties that lie ahead.

Florida vs. Alaska

Much is being made of the need for natural gas from the Alaskan North Slope to satisfy the demand in the lower 48, including Florida. But this gas is maybe eight years away at the best, while Florida has reserves just offshore that could be online in less than half that time. The difference is Alaskan gas is only off limits in the minds of a few die-hard environmentalists (everyone else, Eskimos, Alaskan citizens, and the caribou all want development), while in Florida has a large population of voters with the "not in my backyard" mindset. Several studies, including a National Petroleum Council report, indicate that U.S. gas demand will grow to 29 Tcf in 2010 from the current 22 Tcf.

The only way this situation could be considered economically fair to the American public, who will have to pay for the pipeline from Alaska, is to require the Florida citizens to pay a extra tax equal to the difference between importing the extra gas from Alaska and the cost of the gas Florida doesn't allow to be developed. Considering the shortage, how can any group justify a ban on production just because they don't want to see a rig in the sunset? The MMS has the nation's best interest in sight. They announced the release of a draft Environmental Impact Statement on the proposed Eastern GOM Oil and Gas Lease Sale 181. This is the only Eastern GOM sale scheduled in the current 5-Year Leasing Plan, which ends in 2002, and the first proposed sale in the Eastern GOM since 1988. Lease Sale 181 is scheduled December 2001. The 181-lease area includes 120 blocks in a narrow strip beginning 15 mi. offshore Alabama and Florida and another 913 blocks in deeper water, which are nearer to Louisiana than to Florida.

The current offshore-Florida drilling moratorium is based on conflicts with the state's coastal management plan. The proposed sale area does not include any blocks within 100 mi. offshore Florida. At that offshore distance, it will be interesting to see if the state has any objections. MMS estimates that resources developed from the entire lease area could contain up to 370 million bbl of oil and 3.2 Tcf. In addition, the agency announced several initiatives proposed for Lease Sale 178 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, scheduled for March 28, 2001. Two of these initiatives are designed to increase gas production during the years 2004 - 2006. It is hoped that these initiatives add gas production in the range of 1/2 to 1 Tcf per year in the 2004 to 2006 period. The initiatives are:

1) An incentive to drill for deep gas deposits located in the shallow-water Gulf is provided by royalty suspension for the first 20 Bcf production from a well drilled below 15,000 ft sea level
2) As an incentive to drill for subsalt gas plays, MMS proposes that lessees obtain a two-year extension of the five-year primary lease term when an operator has drilled its first subsalt well and needs additional time to image the subsurface data to determine the next drilling target. This will avoid premature lease expiration and the consequent delay in exploration.
3) As an incentive to keep exploring and developing hydrocarbon deposits in the ultra-deepwater areas to replace expiring provisions of the 1995 Deepwater Royalty Relief Act, a royalty suspension volume of 9 million boe is proposed for water depths between 800 m and 1,599 m, and a royalty suspension volume of the first 12 million boe in water depths greater than 1,599 m.

A further initiative provides an opportunity to apply for additional "discretionary" royalty relief, following new proposed rulemaking, if certain conditions are satisfied.

As natural gas demand continues to grow and the nation struggles to reduce its dependence on imported oil, more land rigs will be needed to replace those lost through attrition, as well as to double the number of wells that must be drilled to meet a 30-Tcf natural gas market. At the end of 2000, the total U.S. onshore rig count is close to 1,000. For the first time since 1982, land rig refurbishment and manufacturing activities have recommenced. The challenge of meeting rising rig demand must be met by a much smaller drilling industry. Today, they are just over 200 companies owning land rigs, compared to nearly 700 in 1987.

In Canada, oil/gas drillers launched a national campaign to fill 3,000 jobs immediately on rigs in Western Canada. The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors' 90 members are "severely short of people". For the first time in years, several of the larger contractors are starting to look at the cost of new rigs. The question being asked is "At what point will increased work rates make it feasible to invest in new rigs?" Remember that the current dayrates have only been in place for a few months. Although current rates indicate a breakeven point for new rigs, there is still a question of how long this boom will last. The risk involved in buying a new rig is more than the average contractor may want to take.

Another school of thought points out that dayrates are just now in line with what they should have been for the past five years as a direct result of added drilling and service work. It is very possible that the rig markets are just now being balanced between supply and demand.

Black BladeNatural Gas Supply Problems Ahead?#4754202/06/01; 03:44:45

Source: Steven King's Black Gold and PetroDispatch

Black Blade: working-kirk asks what would be a best guess on what will happen next on oil and presumably NG. This article from Black Gold and PetroDispatch is quite interesting and demonstrates the potential difficulties that lie ahead.

Florida vs. Alaska

Much is being made of the need for natural gas from the Alaskan North Slope to satisfy the demand in the lower 48, including Florida. But this gas is maybe eight years away at the best, while Florida has reserves just offshore that could be online in less than half that time. The difference is Alaskan gas is only off limits in the minds of a few die-hard environmentalists (everyone else, Eskimos, Alaskan citizens, and the caribou all want development), while in Florida has a large population of voters with the "not in my backyard" mindset. Several studies, including a National Petroleum Council report, indicate that U.S. gas demand will grow to 29 Tcf in 2010 from the current 22 Tcf.

The only way this situation could be considered economically fair to the American public, who will have to pay for the pipeline from Alaska, is to require the Florida citizens to pay a extra tax equal to the difference between importing the extra gas from Alaska and the cost of the gas Florida doesn't allow to be developed. Considering the shortage, how can any group justify a ban on production just because they don't want to see a rig in the sunset? The MMS has the nation's best interest in sight. They announced the release of a draft Environmental Impact Statement on the proposed Eastern GOM Oil and Gas Lease Sale 181. This is the only Eastern GOM sale scheduled in the current 5-Year Leasing Plan, which ends in 2002, and the first proposed sale in the Eastern GOM since 1988. Lease Sale 181 is scheduled December 2001. The 181-lease area includes 120 blocks in a narrow strip beginning 15 mi. offshore Alabama and Florida and another 913 blocks in deeper water, which are nearer to Louisiana than to Florida.

The current offshore-Florida drilling moratorium is based on conflicts with the state's coastal management plan. The proposed sale area does not include any blocks within 100 mi. offshore Florida. At that offshore distance, it will be interesting to see if the state has any objections. MMS estimates that resources developed from the entire lease area could contain up to 370 million bbl of oil and 3.2 Tcf. In addition, the agency announced several initiatives proposed for Lease Sale 178 in the Central Gulf of Mexico, scheduled for March 28, 2001. Two of these initiatives are designed to increase gas production during the years 2004 - 2006. It is hoped that these initiatives add gas production in the range of 1/2 to 1 Tcf per year in the 2004 to 2006 period. The initiatives are:

1) An incentive to drill for deep gas deposits located in the shallow-water Gulf is provided by royalty suspension for the first 20 Bcf production from a well drilled below 15,000 ft sea level
2) As an incentive to drill for subsalt gas plays, MMS proposes that lessees obtain a two-year extension of the five-year primary lease term when an operator has drilled its first subsalt well and needs additional time to image the subsurface data to determine the next drilling target. This will avoid premature lease expiration and the consequent delay in exploration.
3) As an incentive to keep exploring and developing hydrocarbon deposits in the ultra-deepwater areas to replace expiring provisions of the 1995 Deepwater Royalty Relief Act, a royalty suspension volume of 9 million boe is proposed for water depths between 800 m and 1,599 m, and a royalty suspension volume of the first 12 million boe in water depths greater than 1,599 m.

A further initiative provides an opportunity to apply for additional "discretionary" royalty relief, following new proposed rulemaking, if certain conditions are satisfied.

As natural gas demand continues to grow and the nation struggles to reduce its dependence on imported oil, more land rigs will be needed to replace those lost through attrition, as well as to double the number of wells that must be drilled to meet a 30-Tcf natural gas market. At the end of 2000, the total U.S. onshore rig count is close to 1,000. For the first time since 1982, land rig refurbishment and manufacturing activities have recommenced. The challenge of meeting rising rig demand must be met by a much smaller drilling industry. Today, they are just over 200 companies owning land rigs, compared to nearly 700 in 1987.

In Canada, oil/gas drillers launched a national campaign to fill 3,000 jobs immediately on rigs in Western Canada. The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors' 90 members are "severely short of people". For the first time in years, several of the larger contractors are starting to look at the cost of new rigs. The question being asked is "At what point will increased work rates make it feasible to invest in new rigs?" Remember that the current dayrates have only been in place for a few months. Although current rates indicate a breakeven point for new rigs, there is still a question of how long this boom will last. The risk involved in buying a new rig is more than the average contractor may want to take.

Another school of thought points out that dayrates are just now in line with what they should have been for the past five years as a direct result of added drilling and service work. It is very possible that the rig markets are just now being balanced between supply and demand.

LeighGandalf the White#4754302/06/01; 04:11:53

Yes, yes, the package did arrive safely!! I'm so sorry for not acknowledging it sooner. Putting duck tape all over the envelope was brilliant! You couldn't have found anything stronger than that. I love my vial of quartz and gold flakes. It is so cool to have! My daughter kept wanting to open and eat them, and I finally had to move the vial to a safer place.

You are an extremely thoughtful wizard who (unlike many people) can think with BOTH sides of his brain! How fitting that you would choose the perfect gift to honor the Left-Brained Hall of Fun!

RossLCalifornia Seizes Power Contracts #4754402/06/01; 05:39:18

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010205/bs/utilities_california_dc_14.html

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Gov. Gray Davis on Monday seized more long-term power contracts as the state prepared for the lifting later this week of a federal order which has helped to keep electricity flowing to the 24 million customers of its two near bankrupt utilities.

One of those utilities, Southern California Edison (SCE), on Monday reported that it would be penniless if it had been paying its bills.

RossLCalif. Seizes Assets of Utilities #4754502/06/01; 05:42:41

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010206/ts/power_woes.html

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) - Vowing to solve California's energy crisis without outside help, Gov. Gray Davis used emergency powers to seize the assets of a second debt-ridden utility ahead of circling creditors.

The government on Monday claimed ownership of $150 million worth of power-buying agreements from Pacific Gas and Electric Co. before they could be sold by the financially troubled utility's creditors. Davis did the same thing Friday with $300 million worth of Southern California Edison contracts.

Black BladeSilver weak in Europe, gold looking vulnerable#4754602/06/01; 06:14:45

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Silver was looking weak on European precious metals markets on Tuesday, dampening sentiment in an already dented gold market, traders said. ``Gold eased off last night, possibly drawn lower by the silver,'' said one trader. ``Silver is beginning to look poor again, and it would seem the vastly reduced level of Indian buying (normally huge at this time of year) may be a good cause of the weaker silver.'' Overall demand in both gold and silver was expected to reduce significantly in the key Indian consumer market as the country struggled to cope with the massive recent earthquake in the state of Gujarat. At 1120 GMT spot silver was at $4.66/$4.68 versus a New York close on Monday at $4.68/$4.70 a troy ounce. After peaks in the low $4.80s at the end of last month -- a rally mostly attributed to one large fund covering its short positions -- the price was back at levels seen three weeks ago. ``Moves lower will still be in the region of 3-4 cents at worst for the day though, so we're looking for a range of $4.65-$4.70,'' added the trader. Gold was also dented, looking to currency markets factors for direction, but with market sentiment negative overall, traders held out little hope for an uptick during the session. While last week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed the market was still running a large short position, prices some analysts said prices needed to weaken further before any short covering buying was seen. Dealers cited $262 as a level that might prompt fresh buying interest.

Market players also said gold was slightly depressed on the back of Tuesday morning headlines from South Africa that world number one miner Anglogold would hedge 50 percent of its five-year production, while Harmony said it would purchase one million ounces of put options. ``The market has had a bearish tone for the last few days -- though the prospect for short covering was still around -- but it was waiting for any signal for a starting point for any moves either up or down,'' said Frederic Panizzutti at MKS Finance in Geneva. ``Unfortunately, the hedging news came out at a moment where the market was seeking a direction indication and this has raised some old fears, perhaps.'' Forward producer hedge sales limit the market's upside potential. By 1120 GMT spot gold was down at $264.30/$264.70 from the New York close at $265.30/$265.80. Earlier, it dipped to a session low of $263.95 on the bid price.

Platinum and palladium were both firmer, picking up after last week's heavy profit taking. ``Palladium is looking a bit toppish around $1,080/$1,100. Platinum should go higher, but may take a few days to take off,'' said a trader. Palladium was last at $1,070/$1,110 from a close of $1,050/$1,080, while platinum was steady at $604/$611 from $603.70/$608.70.


Black Blade: Gold is down -$1.55 this morning. The hedge fund AngloGold is selling forward 50% of their production for five years. Not a good sign. This could be that they need the funds for the acquisition of Goldfields (GOLD) or some other miner. The acquisition of unhedged miners such as Goldfields would only result in much more gold sold forward in the market. The only good thing about this is that it would depress prices further out making forward sales unprofitable and the end result is that most miners will continue to high-grade their deposits. This in turn will deplete reserves. Some reserves have been written off by some miners such as Placer Dome and Barrick in recent days. Look for more to follow. This also increases the risk for the counter-parties (Central and Bullion Banks), as they are likely to be on the hook for gold leased out. We saw a small example of this when miners Pegasus and Dakota when belly up. In the case of Dakota, their counter-party bank (I believe in may have been Republic Bank) that had to eat the cost of forward sold gold. This scenario could increase significantly.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeBlack Blade#4754702/06/01; 06:18:50

Mother Earth News is still in publication.
Black BladeGold Falls as South African Miners Announce Hedging Plans #4754802/06/01; 06:26:26

Another take from Bloomberg

London, Feb. 6 ( Bloomberg ) -- Gold fell to its lowest price in a week after two mining companies said they would sell gold they haven't yet mined to protect themselves from falling gold prices and to raise funding for investment. Anglogold Ltd., the world's biggest producer, and Harmony Gold Mining Co., Africa's fourth-biggest gold producer, said separately they will sell borrowed metal in a practice known as hedging. AngloGold will hedge 50 percent of its production over five years to secure more funding for investment, the company's executive director of marketing, told a gold conference in Cape Town. AngloGold plans to mine 7.1 million ounces of gold this year. ``They're talking about ( selling forward ) 3.5 million ounces a year -- that's a big chunk of gold,'' said Hennie Rijnbeek, a gold trader at Rabobank in London. ``And they usually make an announcement after they started'' sales, which may mean the sales have already started. Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as $1.55, or 0.6 percent, to $264.10 an ounce in London. The metal has fallen 3.5 percent over the past six months. Harmony, which until now was selling gold only for immediate delivery, said it agreed to sell forward a million ounces of the metal. The company has a ``put option'', which gives Harmony the right but not the obligation to sell gold. Miners' sales of gold they have yet to mine drives down the price because they add not only to physical supply of the metal but also to expectations of a further decline of prices. The two companies made their announcements at a time when traders expect demand from the world's biggest gold consumer, India, to decline as a result of an earthquake that killed thousands in the western Indian state of Gujarat last month. Meanwhile, central banks continue selling gold from their reserves.

Falling Demand

Expectations of increased supply and falling demand have prompted traders to take short positions, or bets that prices will fall further. According to the U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission, speculators as of Jan. 30 had sold 53,815 more gold futures contracts than they had bought in New York, a position that represented an obligation to deliver 5.38 million ounces. That's close to the highest level of being net short on gold since September 1999. Some traders fear that the price has fallen too far and they'd have to buy gold to cover these bets. There are two opposing trends in the market, said Frederic Panizzutti, head of strategy at MKS Finance SA, a Geneva-based precious metals refiner and marketer. ``The sentiment is bearish, but people are mindful that short-covering ( buying ) is possible.'' Concern about excessive short positions prompted a 1.1 percent rally in gold prices on Jan. 22, on the eve of the Bank of England's sale of 25 metric tons of gold.


Black Blade: I may just have to rethink my position on Harmony (HGMCY) after I review everything. I may just switch to physical over all as I think that Goldfields (GOLD) may be up for grabs. This is a tragedy.

Black BladeRE: Stock, Lies, and Ticker Tape#4754902/06/01; 06:31:56

Thanks. I thought that they were but I lost track of them over the years. I'm a bit depressed over this most recent news. Now I gotta raid my beer stash. I feel let down by Harmony (HGMCY), though it was not unexpected from Anglo (AU). Why would any company destroy their own industry is beyond me. Maybe we are looking at the Ashanti (ASL) and Cambior (CCJ) of the future.

- Black Blade

PandagoldBlackblade#4755002/06/01; 06:33:02

Me too. I wondered why Harmony's price had been flagging.

This is very ominous. You've 'unmade' my day

PandagoldBlackblade#475512/6/2001; 6:43:30

Perhaps a redeeming feature might be that this news has been factored in to some extent. The larger players get to know these things by their jungle tom toms. Can only hope

If it has, it will drop and then recover, if not, it will head south

DaveCPandagold on World Poverty#475522/6/2001; 6:45:00

You cannot handle the words "I disagree with you" can you?

I grew up in Detroit. Watched the riots in 1969 and the attempts to burn the city down every Oct 30.

I have lived in Littel Rock, Orange County, CA, Seattle, Chicago, Princeton, NJ, Dayton, Ohio, Cleveland. I have travelled the country consulting to half the Fortune 500.

And my last place of residence before moving to Italy was Manhattan. Yes The Big Apple. 38th and 2nd, 50th and 2nd (in the shadows of the Oligarch Castle called the UN) and 92nd and 2nd. I spent 5 years there.

Yes there are men in cardboard boxes on the streets. But do you know what they do during the day? The collect recycleables. Yes, my dear, the are ENTREPRENUERS! They collect them in garbage bags and shopping carts and deliver them to a large recycle center uptown.

And there are no "cardboard cities". You may find 3 or 4 together but I think you need to turn off the oligarch-controlled BBC.

To compare this to the squalor in Mexico, where I have my timeshare, or to India, or heaven forbid, Africa is to show that you may have travelled but you did not have your eyes open.

Even the worst trailer parks in the US do not even come close to the third world. And no one starves in the US.

You attempt to use government statistics is feeble at best. Since when should we believe anything that comes from the CLinton admin? I prefer to trust my eyes.

As for the Feds cutting support for welfare, I suggest you read The Tragedy of American Compassion by Marvin Olasky for the real cause of America's "poverty."

Since you are incapable of handling even the simplest comment from me with being your usual insulting-arrogant-condescending-self I will no longer attempt any civil discourse as you have proven to all that you cannot handle the simplest disagreement.

When you write something, all sentences should be a part of the whole. That is why I should be able to take a sentence "The USA has some of the worst poverty in the world" and say "I disagree with that." But your response is always that I take this out of context. If the sentence cannot stand on it's own, why is it there? Why can you not elaborate on your original meaning? Your only response is to flame me. That tells me, and other clear thinkers, that you cannot back up your statements. If you cannot back them up, or admit that you may have misspoken (heaven forbid), then the statement does not belong.

Everyday I see you either pissing someone else off or apologizing. You seem to be having problems with many posters here. Do we all have a problem in interpreting your posts?

Get some help. And get over yourself.

Black BladeRE: Pandagold#475532/6/2001; 6:45:02

Yeah, this is a royal bummer! I'm going to tie some flies and relax a bit. Catch ya all later tonight.

- Black Blade

Randy (@ The Tower)The return of the Swiss Confederatios and "The Mermaid Coin"from Denmark#475542/6/2001; 6:49:03

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

They say variety is the spice of life, so help yourself to this variety of gold and enjoy yourself while you're here.

And more importantly, gold cannot help you until you help yourself! Get you some.

PandagoldDave C#475552/6/2001; 7:07:23

I believe someone else told you to calm yourself.

You must travel around with your eyes shut, or too frightened to walk in the areas where the real provery lies.
Most people are. But, as an ex cop, I am not. Why are there so many police suicides in the US? Because they really see and live with the depravation.

And no where did I claim that poverty per se was on a larger scale in the US than in certain other countries of the third world

I replied to Mountain Top in a civil manner, and you would have received the same but like begets like, and this was not the first time with you, and which prompted someone to tell you about.

All that what yesterday, and your attitude want s to carry it on in a new day. Other people do not want have there day spoiled with this sort of verbosity. There are enough problems at present

Galearis@ Topaz on British superiority#475562/6/2001; 7:11:24

This is certainly a subjective area for discussion, and one I have pondered at some length (smile). The best idea I have come up with is from the media displays from both sides of the pond. For example: the Antiques Road Show on PBS. One has the opportunity of watching a British version and an American one. The difference in dress codes for participants in the American one is an illustrious one. These people would scare Vana White (smile). The British show reveals a much better quality dress code.

Another example is to be found throughout the old British colonies in the West Indies. Each day the cruise ships debouch their spills of American tourists into these tranquil islands and the difference between the slovenly but affluent tourists and the poor but clean and well dressed "natives" is frigtening apparent. The "ugly American" is more than just a phrase. (smile)

The other factor is the better education systems in the British system compared to the American. Tony Blair, for example, actually knows some geography. George Dubya, well.... Etc.

Best regards,

G.

Randy (@ The Tower)GOLD: The perfect Valentine's Day Gift#475572/6/2001; 7:28:18

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

For you gentlemen who need help to keep your bacon out of the fire, Marie suggests you call her with your order by Thursday the 8th to ensure timely delivery for your sweetheart's enjoyment next week. (ANYone can give flowers and candy. Show her you are a cut above with a gift of GOLD!)
RossLPandagold#475582/6/2001; 7:31:18

All those statistics you are posting are mere propaganda from the media. Perhaps you could provide the sources for all of us to examine? Your condescending attitude is not winning you any converts.
Randy (@ The Tower)Price of gold...#475592/6/2001; 7:48:38

You cannot say we haven't thoroughly discussed the mechanics of gold's paper-based (derivatives) means of price discovery, and with it, the likelihood of an eventual discount selloff by paper longs as they finally come to realize the nature of the game...that a paper pledge by any color is still paper subject to vaporization and counterparty risk.

For the uncertain times (monetary environment) ahead, if you haven't got *physical* gold, you haven't got a clue.

JourneymanPropaganda @Pandagold, RossL, ALL#475602/6/2001; 7:56:07

Every country conditions it's "citizens" that their country is the "best." It's human nature to believe such notions.

The Germans under Hitler were not told that they were the bad guys. The Iraqis under Saddam weren't told they were the bad guys.

In fact, when someone attacks "your" group, you reject it.

We Americans are no different - - - except possibly, the propaganda we've been subjected to is more effective because we beleive we have a "free press."

Also, we have memories of how America USED to be.

Pandagold's posts may not make him American friends, but remember to other countries, we are "The Great Satan," the "Colossus of the North," etc.

And we, like German and Iraq citizens, tend to gloss-over and ignore the blots on "our" country - - - largely, as is the Kalifornia energy crisis, caused by the government we allow to do stuff to us.

Let me mention just two such blots:

Our collective health leaves much to be desired in comparison to other countries:

...to scientists' surprise, a growing body of evidence
indicates that increasing familiarity with U.S. culture and
society renders immigrants and their children far more
susceptible to many mental and physical ailments, even if
they attain financial success.

The latest study of this phenomenon, directed by
epidemiologist William A. Vega of the University of Texas,
San Antonio finds much higher rates of major depression,
substance abuse, and other mental disorders in U.S.-born
Mexican-Americans compared with both recent and
long-standing Mexican-American immigrants. ...A panel
convened by the National Research Council and the Institute
of Medicine, both in Washington, D.C., reviewed previous
studies and concluded that *assimilation into a U.S.
lifestyle may undermine the overall health of immigrant
children much more than being poor does.*

"The material on immigrant health shocked me when we
first reviewed it," says panel member Arthur M. Kleinman, a
psychiatrist and anthropologist at Harvard Medical School in
Boston. "Vega's study is consistent with the panel's
conclusion that immigrants' health deteriorates with
assimilation to U.S. society," declining toward general U.S.
norms, says Kleinman. *Other studies have indicated that
citizens of many countries, including Mexico, are healthier
overall than U.S. citizens.*

A related study of 1,500 public health care users in
California, conducted by psychiatrist Javier I. Escobar of
the RWJ Medical School in Piscatasay, N.J., reports lower
rates of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, as
well as better physical health, in Mexican and Central
American immigrants than in U.S.-born Hispanics.
Nonetheless, immigrants were poorer than the U.S. natives,
Escobar's team reports in an upcoming _British Journal of
Psychiatry_. -B.Bower, Immigrants Go from Health to Worse,
SCIENCE NEWS, SEPTEMBER 12, 1998, p. 180

Secondly, here in the freest country in the world, we have the largest prison population in the world. More things are against the law and there are more cops per capita than in any other country in the world.

Does that sound like anti-American propaganda to you?

It does to me, but unfortunately it's all true.

Needless to say, there are other blots as well.

Regards,
Journeyman

Black BladeMixed Signals?#475612/6/2001; 8:02:50

There are several reports out now on the hedging of Anglo and Harmony. There is some confusion on the Harmony position as some say that there are forward sales and and others say that it is entirely put options. Put options wouldn't necessarily be a death blow as forward sales would only throw gasoline on the fire. There may be some clarification by Harmony later today. Anglo however, has slammed gold down -$3.00 so far today. Looks like financing to grab up a another miner - perhaps a run on Goldfields.

- Black Blade

Trail Guidecomment#475622/6/2001; 8:12:36

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/010206/80/azvre.html

Hello all:

I can't talk now, but I noticed in the link above (found on MKs great news page) that Old England is changing it's Thoughts. (smile)

--------------------------

Tuesday February 6, 11:53 AM

Support for euro soars among
London bosses - poll

---LONDON (Reuters) - Support for Britain's entry into Europe's single currency has soared among company bosses in London, a London Chamber of Commerce and Industry survey showed today. --- The proportion of the capital's top executives in favour of entry "as soon as possible"
has doubled during the last 18 months to 40 percent, according to the poll ----------------The poll, published in the London Evening Standard newspaper, found that a further 36 percent favoured entry "within the next few years", bringing total support for joining the euro to 76
percent.--------The Labour party is committed in principle to joining Europe's single currency club--------

-----------------------

Ok, now they are getting the drift! Also take a look at Pandagold's:

-----------------------

(usagold.com msg#: 47540)
"......GORDON BROWN made a profit from selling some of the UK's gold reserves and investing in the ailing euro currency, MPs were told yesterday. A senior Treasury official said that, even though the euro had fallen in value, not lost out because investments in euros also paid interest, unlike gold. Gus O'Donnell, also insisted the Chancellor's policy of selling gold was not related to the Government's desire to join the euro.............

-------------------------

Ha! Ha! Old "GUS" read that last line from pre-printed material,,,,, don't you think? With the Euro and it's economy, also forming a powerful base, and it's coming policy about gold, the Brits won't need as much gold as a government money reserve. Because the ECB will allow this new non - money asset to rise like never before! Especially in dollars! And that thought gives big paper gold traders the shakes, as it's (paper gold marketplace) trading value is based on a dollar price band remaining in place. Soooo, HM government is saving a few of them (big BBs) before EMU.

Don't forget to notice the item in today's WSJ about how Euro-zone producer prices fell in december! This does not sound to me or to the Brits like a world currency that was being printed as "social trash paper" does it?

Let me see,,, if the ECB keeps rates from falling too fast and the USA keeps rates falling to ensure it's overheated economy ,,,,, then something of a shift in in world opinion about reserve money is coming? No?

Also:
It looks like more of the miners are doing something "who would have thought of"??? ,,,, dump all their real gold into the gold paper market. It would not take a rocket scientist to see how their financial structure demands nothing less? Yet, investors are still clinging to the ideal that all these securities are a proxy for "real gold"!!!! This could eventually lead to the failure of paper gold and / or the total loss of "equity" value for most mine shares?????? More than a few paper traders will feel the sting of buying paper gold based on it's ongoing paper pricing of real physical metal.

Some mines will, indeed,,,, make it across this valley,,,,,, and still have massive reserves intact. But, for the thinking gold advocate,,,,,, playing all the speculative metals and mine securities for a quick profit will only produce quick loses,,,,, no? Today, every aspect of perceived value in the gold arena is an illusion based on an "unknown",,,,,, the "unknown" trading price of physical gold.

The real leverage today, is found in the "hunk" of real gold in one's hand. That value will be shown at "Another" time.

---------
Black Blade (02/06/01; 06:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 47549)
I feel let down by Harmony (HGMCY),------------
----------------

Buy a real physical gold value,,,,,, today,,,,,, for free,,,,, by just paying it's currency commission as a full price. The future is for all who can see ahead,,,,, down the trail. (smile) The "Advantage" of holding real gold has never been better!

I'll post in a few days when I have time.

TrailGuide

tedwSeig heil Governor Davis#475632/6/2001; 8:17:00

http://www.usagold.com

California Governor Davis has seized 450 million dollars of privately owned options. The options could have been sold off to pay legitimate creditors, but cant know because Governor Davis has stolen them.

I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another.

tedwSeig heil Governor Davis#475642/6/2001; 8:17:01

http://www.usagold.com

California Governor Davis has seized 450 million dollars of privately owned options. The options could have been sold off to pay legitimate creditors, but cant know because Governor Davis has stolen them.

I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another.

Randy (@ The Tower)The Tower has just received the weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem#475652/6/2001; 8:18:03

For the week ended February 2nd, the ECB reports the net position in foreign currency assets declining by 100 million euros to 260.8 billion euros in total value. Gold assets remain unchanged at 118.611 billion euros, and shall remain so until the first of either the next quarterly revaluation date, or the commencement of this year's 50 tonne allotment for gold reallocation through some combination of activity by the CBs for the Netherlands and Austria. We expect that when that event is eventually revealed after the fact, the BIS will once again have played an instrumental role in the non-disruptive reallocation to eager hands.

Given the volume cleared daily by the LBMA, this quantity of metal will be but a sprinkle of water to quench a thirst on a hot day...and we will never see the full depth of the deal-- beyond the price appearing to be, oh, such a bargain!

Trail GuideNote#475662/6/2001; 8:18:34

Randy (@ The Tower) (2/6/2001; 7:48:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 47559)

--For the uncertain times (monetary environment) ahead, if you haven't got *physical* gold, you haven't got a clue.----

-----------

Ha! HA! You are right there, my friend!!!!


I must be "on the road" for a while.

TrailGuide

PandagoldRoss L#475672/6/2001; 8:23:03

I do not seek converts. You are free to believe , or not to believe. It doesn't add a dime to my pocket. The statistics are in public domain, and you can find them, or better still, you find some that disprove. As DaveC says he doesn't believe them anyway.
I guess I just hit a nerve. They say, the truth hurts.

But usually, if a government is going to lie with its statistics, it tends to make things appear better than what they are, not worse. Or perhaps you have an answer for that.

While the truth may hurt, it is the truth that will set us free.

PandagoldOn a lighter note#475682/6/2001; 8:24:59

Many years ago, I was asked if I would like to go hare shooting. Having never been before, and it not having connected in my then naive mind that I would be expected to shoot, and kill, little 'Bugs Bunnies, I agreed.

The part I remember was lying behind a hedge in a long line of fellow shooters armed with double barrels and waiting for 'the beeters' to drive the poor creatures ( while keeeping out of range themselves, of course) into our line of fire.

This was my first and last time. The poor little things didn't stand a chance - and those human-like squeels as they flew in the air when hit.

Sometimes I see a slight similarity in this financial hare shoot. The media's financial pundits (beeters) drive us excitedly right into the line of fire - then pop! We get skinned, and eaten.

Pandagoldcorrection#475692/6/2001; 8:26:57

The word is 'beaters'
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tapebeesting, your post #47420........ on Andrew Jackson our 7th President#475702/6/2001; 8:32:15

I agree that Andrew Jackson is arguably this nations best if not most courageous president. He and his eclectic forces sure gave the British a well deserved kick in the a*se at New Orleans! He also supplied the noose for the national banks. The life story of Andrew Jackson should be required reading for all US students. (It of course lacks the requisite political correctness deemed necessary in the education establishment.)

However, as much as I would like such a formidable nickname as "Stonewall" to apply to Andrew Jackson, it instead belongs to General Thomas Jackson of the Confederacy. Andrew Jackson's popular nickname within the US is "Old Hickory", if anyone has had to work with old hickory in any way you know how tough that can be!

goldfan@tg msg#: 47509 on dollar flood dynamics#475712/6/2001; 8:37:42

Hi again tg, thanks for your continuing dialogue.

>>>You say, "The central bank can loan an infinite amount of money into existence, as long as they are not worried about what it will buy".
But what happens if the consumer and corporations who are already deeply indebted, decide to pay off loans rather then borrow more.<<<

If their cash flow is dropping, they can't pay off the loans. Anymore than I can pay off my credit card and mortgage debts, if my pay gets cut and jobs are getting scarce. Or if, as an independent "entrepreneur" I start having difficulty finding customers and have to cut my rates. However, if I can hang on I can maybe gradually pay off the debts with depreciated money. This is the hope today of a lot of people and the deliberate policy of the Greenspan et al gang, I believe. The problem is that there is very likely not enough time left for this strategy to work. I believe ORO has said the US is now printing money (read borrowing) to pay the interest on previous borrowings. Hope I'm not misunderstanding him. I believe the "money-control" is spinning out of control. Evidence is the extreme volatility in stock and credit markets. Just like many householders who are in over their heads, the US is now just juggling between credit cards to keep the US $ afloat. Read Doug Noland at Prudentbear.com. The game will be over when the assets others are holding to back all their loans to the US start being sold all at once. Just like when your broker issues a margin call and sells you out for whatever lowball price he can get.


>>>>You say, "when the citizens lose confidence in the future purchasing power of the money, they will get rid of it as fast as it comes into their hands. Being willing to pay anything for stuff that is seen as more able to hold its tradeable value for longer."
That is an assumption which may or maynot play out. What happens if there is asset deflation caused by a credit crunch? I think the public would rather be holding dollars under that scenario.<<<

What is the use of holding dollars if it takes a wheelbarrow full to buy a pack of cigarettes? I'd rather hold the cigarettes, and I do. The asset deflation is happening. But that alone won't remove the alaready created dollars from all the electronic pots where they circulate. When all those dollars start flowing into the few goods left, hard enough , like cigarettes and vodka, (not gold, there will be none of that on the market available to you and me) to be seen as a store of value, then we will understand what it means to lose the actuality and the dream of empire.

Your questions help me to get clearer on my thinking, thanks

Goldfan



>>>>I am not sure my logic is sound, but as i see it if people are in debt, then they dont have any money to buy hard assets.<<<<

The people who don't have any money to buy hard assets now are going to we wandering the streets selling cigarettes and flowers, just like in Russia today.


Cheers

Goldfan

Peter AsherJourneyman msg#: 47560 and the poverty debate#475722/6/2001; 8:52:16

*assimilation into a U.S.lifestyle may undermine the overall health of immigrant children much more than being poor does.*

The answer to this ‘surprise' ‘they' found, can be seen in this excerpt from last week's post of my youngest's observations when she was 17. This is having nothing when that is no different from those around you, in clean open country, and others are not exploiting profiting from your labor.
(They also don't experience the ‘values' of the TV'd world.)

Also, the last line has a message for the "Grasshoppers"

Summer 1993 --- Mongolian Steppes.

Yesterday, I climbed the hill with the children to a place at the top to put prayer stones. Partway
up, while resting, the Russian-speaking girl (a thirteen-year-old, 2 years ahead in school) said,
"My sister wants to sing you a song." Her sister sings this song, big smile on her face, voice
sharp and clear over the silent town, and I think, "Where do these fairy tale children come from?
They are happy and full of laughter and all the good things people think of when they think of children, and none of the bad. They live here in Tosonstengel, where nobody has a job because
the furniture factory closed down, nothing works anymore-- electricity, radio. Nobody has any
money. The woman I stay with weaves carpets now to sell, because there is no work. I think the
man fixes clocks. Everyone has taken something up at home. But they have such poverty and such difficulty - no gas for cars or barely any, etc. Yet they are the happiest people I have ever
known, despite the hardship. Not that they don't mind. They do. But how come the Europeans
have so much and aren't happy? The children always amaze me. A two-year-old child pours
herself a cup of tea from a heavy teapot. Seven-year-olds tending the fire, helping with the
cooking. They wash the clothes, dig up the potatoes at lunchtime, go to get the water from the
river, never have any problem with it. And they are incredibly capable, riding around on horses.
(Lamp oil running out. Good night.)

Old YellerAnglo Gold ,hmm'smells a lot like the BOE#475732/6/2001; 9:04:15

Is it just a coincidence,or does this blantantly bearish maneuver by Anglogold remind one of the BOE annoucement in 1999.These people(I use the term loosely),represent the largest producer in South Africa,which has already put in place a massive hedge program.I not positive on their total cost per ounce,but it must be quite close to the current spot price.

Being that the gold price seems to be quite close to an inflection point as in early 1999,we are all looking for a catalyst to break it out of it's trading range.The Brits were successful then, can Anglo replicate this?Lets hope this strategy of undermining the current selling price of their own product,reducing the net worth of their long suffering shareholders and reducing the desperately needed foreign exchange earnings of their host country comes back to bite their hugely over-exposed,you know what.

Peter AsherPanda, if I may join in.#475742/6/2001; 9:05:58

>>>But usually, if a government is going to lie with its statistics, it tends to make things appear better than what they are, not worse. Or perhaps you have an answer for that.<<<

They lie in this case to make the enslaved sheeple, by contrast, feel they are better off then they are.

"There but for the grace of my job, go I"

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, Hare Hunting, How Hilarious!#475752/6/2001; 9:06:14

It amazes me how something as enjoyable as rabbit hunting could be perverted into what you described. A line of "hunters" hiding behind a wall waiting for "the beaters" to flush the rabbits out in front of the wall? How truly barbaric. Very unsportsmanlike. Were tea and crumpets catered behind that wall? Was the end of the field mined as well? Your reaction to it is understandable. I had a good laugh at first envisioning the "setting" with the word "hunt" to describe it, then revulsion.


Such hunting is best done walking alone or in the company of a rabbit running hound. When walking alone you shoot what you flush, immediately or after tracking. Hunting with a hound requires more practice (for you and the hound) yet is extremely enjoyable and rewarding. The rabbit when chased will almost invariably run in a circle. The yelp (pitch and frequency) of the hound will let you know when the rabbit is fast approaching. The shooting "sport" of it is first rate!

Peter Ashertedw msg#: 47563)#475762/6/2001; 9:11:29

You said
>>> I dont know about you, but it bothers me when the government steal from one person to aid another. <<<

Me too, it's called taxation!

PandagoldThe Battle of New Orleans#475772/6/2001; 9:14:42

SLATT: Now this is pure harmless banter, don't take seriously, please - When the battle was fought, the peace treaty had already been signed but communications could not, at that time, reach them. Then of course the Brits were playing away - a long, long, way away.

And one must remember, many of these patriots were 'Brits
two or three times removed - even Washington, John Paul Jones (Welsh name, but a Scot)

Peter AsherStocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape msg#: 47575)#475782/6/2001; 9:19:22

>>>The yelp (pitch and frequency) of the hound will let you know when the rabbit is fast approaching. The shooting "sport" of it is first rate! <<<<

Is that because of Panda's "and those human-like squeels as they flew in the air when hit."

From Ogden Nash:

Hi handsome hunting man,
Fire your little gun.
BANG! now the animal,
Is dead and dumb and done.

Nevermore to run again,
xxx xxx xxx
Bask in the sun again.
Oh What Fun!

PandagoldWabbits!#475792/6/2001; 9:26:23

Hares are a little bigger than wabbits, and they jump higher. I think that sort of fire would have left nothing of a wabbit to jump.

As you say, it was revolting. I heard those pathetic screams for days.

We buried the excess carcasses in the fields which had been planted with corn. As they say - Hare today, corn tomorrow.

(sorry about that - not really)

PandagoldOld Yeller#475802/6/2001; 9:35:06

You are bang on there, you took the words right out of my mouth. I feel a deal has been done ahead of a POG rise later ( you can think of your own reasons anyone out there - there are enough to choose from)
USAGOLDAll. . . .#475812/6/2001; 9:37:49

I have received a number of complaints -- some from longtime posters, clients and lurkers -- about the off topic posts and general bickering here at the Forum. One individual complained that he had to scroll through at least ten posts, many of them unpleasant, before he got to one that had anything to do with gold. So, in order to come to some sort of conclusion myself, I did a quick survey of yesterday's posts to get a feel for what's going on here.

Yesterday we had a total of 68 posts. Of that total,

11 were on topic meaning they were about gold and/or the politics and economics which affect it with the proper tie-ins.

15 were somewhat on topic meaning they had some meaningful content that could be related to gold, or where the poster was at least indirectly staying on topic.

40 posts were off topic!

40!

10 actually mentioned the word gold. Hooray.

We had at least three internecine battles wherein the posters were making every attempt to insure that they would never lose an on-line argument (I put all those in the off-topic bin as I don't think many people particularly cared about these ego/alter-ego entanglements), a number of posts on silver, and three outright advertisements. I didn't include Randy's posts in the total.

Not a bad day at the old forum.

This forum has attracted top notch posters from the start because of its disciplined approach. We seem to have gotten away from that. Let's get back to disciplining the posting so that the subject is brought back to gold. That's why people come here -- to learn about gold both as posters and lurkers. I really don't have a problem with the "somewhat on topic" category, if it is trending to some larger conclusion involving gold (like in Oro's posting -- for example) -- as it relates to the current economy, politics, social order, etc. But these posts that wander off into various personal interests and concerns that little or nothing to do with gold are getting tiresome.

Beyond the off-topic problems, let's keep in mind that this is a discussion group not a chat room. If you want to chat and insult each other, please chat away and insult at AOL with the rest of the kids. I would like to see more restraint on the part of all; and more self-policing of the site. We all know the rules and if you've forgotten them, I suggest a refresher course because they will be enforced. Several people have had their posting privileges revoked over the past several weeks for breaking them and several others are on our watch list.

Please keep in mind that what goes on here is a direct reflection on USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, as well as each of you individually. There is a warning contained on the prohibitions page that has never been altered or taken down.

It reads:

"This Forum is offered on a trial basis. The outcome of this trial is up to the posters. If the guidelines are generally followed, the Forum will remain open. If violations of the guidelines persist or if monitoring the site becomes burdensome or in any way a business liability, USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals reserves the right to discontinue the Forum without advance warning."

Please don't take that casually. I do not take pleasure posting this sort of message, but at the same time this is a public venue with a very specialized and narrow interest. Those who feel uncomfortable with these purposes and goals can find other channels of expression all over the internet.

This is a Gold Forum and a Gold Forum it shall remain.

Thank you.

Let the discussion continue. . . . . . .

PandagoldUSA Gold#475822/6/2001; 9:40:41

Message received and understood, over and out
Old YellerTech investors;golden second half or....#475832/6/2001; 9:41:08

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/streetsidechat/1289155.html

Yikes,if Mr.Hickey is right about future prospects for this industry,look for some serious bubble re-configuration as the year progresses.Amazing,isn't it,the ever lasting hopes of these investors,looking for a quick rebound of these companies with mega billion market caps and mind boggling P/E ratios.

It's a funny old world.Thanks to Fleck for the link.

JMBGoldman Sachs#475842/6/2001; 9:55:56

From a total of 296 Gold deliveries issued on the Comex today, our new found allies have stopped 121 contracts. These guys must be gluttons for punishment. I'M KIDDING, I'M KIDDING...they're a brilliant, farsighted, and patriotic organization with mandkind's welfare uppermost in their thinking.
Mr GreshamPanda, Trail Guide#475852/6/2001; 10:00:47

Panda: Perhaps, the "silence of the scammed"? ("The media's financial pundits (beeters) drive us excitedly right into the line of fire - then pop! We get skinned, and eaten.") Just another day of service in Mr Lector's employ, sir.

Trail Guide: Happy Trails to you. Whether it be silks or spices, Samarkand or Timbuktu, your home awaits your return.

beestingStocks, Lies, & Ticker Tape # 47570...The Jacksons!#475862/6/2001; 10:10:54

Hi SL&TT,
Thanks for the correction. After I posted the post(Short comment on a video I had just finished watching) about Andrew Jackson the phrase "Old Hickory" kept running thru my head. I spent about an hour looking thru my available research books to varify if "Stonewall" was indeed his nickname, with no success. My mistake is an excellent example of how certain facts can get misplaced or distorted over time, a good lesson for this student, and a good reason to compare all sources of information. Thank You!(((If I was a reporter I could have been fired for that flub)))

As for todays Gold announcements by Sir Black Blade, I too feel let down, but what it is showing is Sirs Another/FOA/Trail Guides previous predictions seem to be "right on the money"!Sooner or later dollar debt will destroy the percieved "Value" of the paper dollar.

I'm personally using this drop in POG to accumulate more physical. I believe the Gold mining industry is being destroyed by manipulation of paper debt.If the mining industry is destroyed or partially destroyed, wouldn't that cause the value of Gold in Hand to rise dramatically?

One other thing I forgot to mention about Japan was, when I was there, interest rates were very high so most things were bought with "Cash',causing people to save, building the strength, or percieved value, of the Yen.
IMHO if the monthly or daily U.S. balance of trade defict were added(in this case subtracted) from U.S. dollar currency valuations honestly, the U.S. dollar would have devalued long ago.

More on the video "The Money Masters" when time permits....beesting.

FlatlanderUSA GOLD#475872/6/2001; 10:33:43

Thanks, we needed that!
FlatlanderJMB#4758802/06/01; 10:39:39

I guess I will have to ask for clarification of just what you mean by Goldman Sachs stopping a delivery contract for gold and what are the ramifications of that act. Thanks from the farmer in Kansas.
Mr GreshamMoney supply -- to the Moon!, & MK USA Gold#4758902/06/01; 11:00:15

http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=109397

In case there was any doubt about future inflation:

"The Bubble Fix
Posted By: SV Bear
Date: Tuesday, 6 February 2001, at 12:49 a.m.
As usual MSDW folks are doing good job --

http://www.msdw.com/gef

"There can be no mistaking the Fed's intent at this juncture. The 100 bp of monetary easing that occurred in January 2001 represents the most aggressive monetary stimulus in a one-month time frame since 1982. And that's quite a precedent -- coming, as it did, in the depths of what turned out to be the worst recession of the post-Depression era. Moreover, beginning late last year, the central bank has turned the liquidity spigot wide open. The money supply has surged, with annualized rates of change for both MZM and M3 closing in on 15% in the three months ending January 2001. That's on a par with the pre-Y2K liquidity injection that occurred in late 1999 and that set the stage for the final Nasdaq blowout in early 2000.
..
"So as the Fed bares its soul, there can be no mistaking its aim. It's all about confidence -- the fuzziest of all economic parameters. Lord Keynes put it best long ago by underscoring the key role that "animal spirits" played in shaping economic activity. "


MK: Lots of tunes jumped into my head about "You're gonna lose a good thing, baby", etc etc. In a world of Shams, you would think a Good Thing would be recognized, and treated better.

People, for various reasons, don't know when they've got a Good Thing. Or even if they do, don't know what to do with it. Gold ownership is a lonely status, and "chat therapy (or venting)" FWIW, may temporarily help some (mea culpa) but if they do not give back to the group, then, well... And it takes awhile to see if someone is going to be a taker or a giver. And sometimes their entry overwhelms the board, or triggers others, until that is known and they settle in.

A difficult, delicate job being a board master (schoolmaster? school bus driver?), because the freedom that allows the best to shine, allows others to alloy it with their mixed contributions. My closest experience was a volunteer newsletter editor (twice) for causes in which I believed strongly. You can guess therefore that the pain was doubled when various forms of disrespect were dumped on me and my efforts, or others fought out their ego-battles in the venue I'd created for them to give and build something.

Your consolation prize? Being part of economic and Internet history? (You know if Oro writes it, you'll be more than a footnote!) Advancing economic understanding (Austrian? or do we have to call ourselves Austrian-Americans?) Helping families survive in hard times? Many more I could list.

But I know it will probably have to be mostly just the satisfaction that you were part of, and the founder of, a Good Thing, for all the s**t you had to put up with. Thank you.

TopazPandagold#4759002/06/01; 11:17:18

Panda, if you check (early) today I posted the OS comment.
As far as the Kennedy link goes, I too found a problem with connecting until I realised the page I wanted was loading UNDER the main menu. Go try it again and this time - after the menu re-loads - scroll down to read the relevant article.
Rest assured, it's worth the effort.

CoBra(too)On Anglo's and other Hedge Funds ...#4759102/06/01; 11:41:10

Re: Black Blade - As you've said you're saddened about Harmony taking up hedging - have they? I don't think so - they only had to insure the price for the takeover of two
mines Anglo couldn't cope without writing them off, due to POG. And HGMCY did it in a positive way and not as the media spin would have make us believe - and I still believe in Bernard Swanepoel.
Now Anglo is another proposition alltogether. Producing 7moz/a and already 50% hedged for five years of production. At these prices they have to come up with new and cheap reserves rapidly in order not to default on their own obligations vis a vis their bankers. A real death spiral - as in analogy of "beggar your neighbour", or who can depriciate their currency faster - in order to survive? -barely, if at all.
In this context I've picked up a tv show on NTV with Deutsche Bank's Rolf Breuer, proudly presenting the best quarter ever. At the same time DB announced the layoff of 2.600 employees over this year. And not enough of the good news, shortly after that another DB official told the world that they will start an exchange listed hedge fund to enable not only the super rich to profit from this kind of supra-boosting capital appreciation vehicle. - Or is it just the amelioration of capital depreciating in their own accounts? A nice way of "socializing" losses already ocurring?
Just a thought - cb2
And as a PS: Yes it seems TG is right on - though he's fair eenough to state some G-Miners might just make it across the valley with their reserves intact - without being snide - what tact - tku TG

JMBFlatlander and N.M.#4759202/06/01; 11:50:05

Flatlander: What do you do when you can't plant Wheat? You Sir, are truly a big part of the strength of our nation. I salute you.

Check out my post at 8:33 am yesterday and also the post at about the same time last Friday. Before I try to explain this stuff I want to contact "The Brass" and get him to post the sight where I get the info.
N.M.: I didn't see your post yesterday...called away for baby sitting duties...I'm new at this computer stuff and have not learned to cut'n paste or whatever they call it. If I can e-mail the sight to MK he can post it.

As you know, Futures Contracts expire. Deliveries are made. Goldman Sachs is taking delivery. I'll get back to you, but I must call MK first.

LafisrapThe FOA/Another Scenario#4759302/06/01; 11:52:56

I am willing to adjust my writing in the following as necessary to make it accurate.

The main FOA/Another message is that the U.S. dollar price for immediate cash delivery of physical gold will eventually be in the many thousands of dollars.

When? No exact time or time frame is given for the event; however, FOA/Another do allude to time frames such as "this year" and "soon" for various sub-events and offer a description of a sequence of events leading up to the main event. The main event is the pricing of gold in many thousands of U.S. dollars.

What do they mean by "many thousands of dollars?" Well, "many" is more than "few." Two is a couple, which is less than a few. "Few" can, reasonably mean "three," "four," or even "five." "Many" would generally not be used to describe a number less than five. We have heard from FOA/Another that
POG could go as high as $30,000. So, let us put a minimum number to the phrase "many thousands of dollars." The minimum shall be 6,000, based on my declaration that "five" is closer to "few" than it is to "many." In the FOA/Another scenario, $6,000 per troy ounce is the predicted minimum high to which POG will go. If that is not the case, FOA/Another are invited to correct this figure.

So, the message becomes: The U.S. dollar price for immediate cash delivery of physical gold will eventually be at least $6,000 per troy ounce.

Now we are getting somewhere. We have a price. We need a time.

FOA/Another do not specify a time, just that eventuality is implied. Well, that poses a problem. Yes, it may be prudent to balance one's portfolio with some physical gold, which immediately confronts us with questions concerning balance. How much physical gold is needed? Well, naturally, we get many different answers coming from different investment advisors. Predictably, those who sell gold generally recommend a higher percentage than those who sell other investment vehicles. And what of those investors who wish to fully capitalize on the projected rise in POG by holding a large portion of their assets in physical gold? The amount of physical gold a person owns, or the percentage of physical gold someone holds in their portfolio is mute.

We are interested in mainly two things, how high POG will go and when it will move there. Discussions concerning how much physical gold a person should hold are not relevant. Such discussions provide no strength to any argument in support of or opposition to the FOA/Another scenario, but tend to provide only an avenue of excuse or blame useful to sellers of physical gold when confronted by investors in physical gold who may be disappointed in a drop in POG.

As the current POG drops steadily over many years, all investors in physical gold are faced with two important things:

1. current reality
2. dreams and expectations of the future

If people have purchased physical gold and hope to profit from it based on the strength of the arguments in the FOA/Another scenario, faced with the facts that the FOA/Another scenario was originally presented on the Internet a few years ago (1997?) and that, except for two anomalous periods, the POG has not risen at all, but rather has steadily declined, those people who hoped to profit may want to re-evaluate the strength of the arguments in the FOA/Another scenario.

So, what are those arguments? Well, it is not all that easy to organize them because those arguments are not always specific, are generally not presented in any manner that would traditionally be consider organized, and, in fact, aren't even considered arguments by FOA/Another. Rather the information provided is offered as "thought." Do these thoughts somehow warrant basing investment decisions to purchase and hold physical gold? I don't know. That is what I wish to explore.

We have a predicted price (6000), so lets confront the problem of eventuality. "Eventually" could mean a very, very long time. And that is absolutely not an acceptable time frame for the predicted event (POG in the many thousands of dollars). But it is also, perhaps, unreasonable to expect FOA/Another to provide a time frame. I tend to disagree, if for no other reason than that "eventually" is completely useless.

It may help to ask "Are we getting close, or closer?" And in the FOA/Another scenario, because it contains predicted events leading up to the main event, we can ask that question, answer it ourselves, and expect to have some useful information. So, what are the predicted events leading up to the main event? And what is their sequence?

Please help me correct these items and put them in the correct sequence. I am probably missing some important items. If you can think of them, please remind me. I hope that FOA/Another will help clarify their message.

1. in terms of other currencies, the U.S. dollar and POG will rise together
(did not happen)
2. the BIS will buy gold in the open if POG drops below $280
(did not happen)
3. POG as priced by LBMA and COMEX will go to zero
4. LBMA and COMEX will cease to function
5. BIS will establish a new gold market that deals only in physical gold
6. OPEC will price oil in euro and no longer accept U.S. dollars for oil
7. the U.S. will experience hyperinflation
8. the euro will replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency
9. POG as priced in U.S. dollars will go to many thousands

Thanks,

Lafisrap

DaveCMr Gresham (02/06/01; 11:00:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47589)#4759402/06/01; 11:57:10

high Powered Money

Mr G., What Easy Al does not realize, or maybe he does and is helpless, is that this high-powered money will seek out inflationary assets.

Put a chart of the NASDAQ against a chart of the CRB and you can see where this money is going to end up.

It's why people like Jim Rogers are starting commoditiy funds. This, led by energy, will be the play for the near future, minimum.

OCICBW.

DaveCJust Announced#4759502/06/01; 12:03:31

Bill Gates files to sell 3 mln Microsoft shares
WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) Chairman and co-founder Bill Gates has made a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell 3 million common shares of the world's largest software company.

The shares had a market value of $193 million when he made the filing on Jan. 29, the document showed.

Gates sold a total of 13 million shares valued at more than $881 million between Oct. 30, 2000 and Jan. 26, 2001.

His spokeswoman was not immediately available to comment on the proposed sale of the 3 million shares, but she has said that Gates routinely sells some of his Microsoft stock for portfolio diversification.

Microsoft shares were trading up 8/16 to $62-7/16 in Tuesday afternoon activity on Nasdaq. The shares have been as high as $115 and as low as $40-4/16 in the past 52 weeks. END

My charts showed MSFT was ready to turn over.
So, 3 mil times let's say $50 per equals a cool $150 mil.

What they failed to say was Paul Allen sold more than twice as much as Gates in the same time frame late last year.

Maybe he wants to buy a gold mine? Naw.

Mr GreshamA Dad's Teachable Moment#4759602/06/01; 12:05:15

My 4-year-old girl just brought me her abacus (10x10) board of large colored wooden beads (made in Sweden, of course), which she had shown no interest in since we got it 3 years ago. We just played some spontaneous games that moved into the additive and transitive properties of math. (!!!)

My heart warmed at the prospect of some math acquaintance passing on to the next generation. I think it should be learned by tactile counting games, not a computer program (which we also have several of.)

I was a math obsessive as a kid, so I went lightly on my other kids, and they seem to have become part of Innumerate America. Wonder if this one will acquire the fine tools of comfortable math handling in her head, without the overreach of obsessive numeracy?

Wrapping up, I wondered why couldn't there be an abacus for the gold and currency markets for us "pre-schoolers" to get our hands on? We're just comparing mostly abstract models here, without hands-on experience. And we probably would want to discard that "market" knowledge as soon as we've figured out their failure points, if they were put up solely for the purpose of price control.

Those are difficult aspects of following FOA's trail, because those markets will probably always remain "just stories" to us, even as they pass into history without our participation. (Better to hear about, and deal with, them even tangentially, than not at all.)

PandagoldPOG and current events#4759702/06/01; 12:05:43

I am rehashing a posting I made earlier today because I believe it is very relevant to POG, at this moment in time, and could explain a surge of negative comments and POG small gyrations.

There is a serious problem bubbling in the ME (I know, there always is) But things are coming to a head. Today is Israeli elections. While some street battling has been going on — the weight behind them, or that could be behind them, has been subdued awaiting the election outcome. This is happening while Libya is seething at the results of the court case on Lockerbie. This should be positive for gold and could, under normal conditions put upward pressure on price.

It is also Brit elections soon, and they don't want to be embarrassed by seeing gold rise so soon after selling so much.

However, the 'agenda' whether you believe it or not, is to stop any run away from the euro while the dollar is weakening.

Consequently, there will lots of things put out as scare tactics, measures taken to push the price down. There is too much 'investment' by 'them' to blow it all now.

Of course, if the outcome in the Middle East aided by a big oil price rise did occur, then that could blow it. It is merely something to think about. Take adavantage of any drop in the gold price, because later this year.....................

DaveCMr Gresham (02/06/01; 12:05:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 47596)#4759802/06/01; 12:24:40

Mr. G, How about a slide rule?

I taught myself how to use on early on. I love seeing old NASA footage with the guys using slide rules. Quite amazing.

Mr GreshamDave, Lafisrap#4759902/06/01; 12:40:47

Didn't LTCM have one of those option-pricing slide rules? Of course B&S never told anyone what to do when the slide came out of the groove and wouldn't go back in.

I had a favorite slide rule (Keuffel & Esser) that was my father's from back in the 30s. Of course I didn't bring it to school because that is what would get us beaten up in the hallways by the Junior Maf kids.

Lafisrap: (Not a complete response) I believe your #3 actually said paper POG MIGHT go to zero, in contrast to physical and in concert with a "separation" of the two markets. (I could use a re-read on this.) The point being that a desperate paper world would flood those markets with paper promises for a few days/weeks max as those promises were taken to be worth pennies on the dollar as the unlikelihood of ever being deliverable or settled in cash became recognized.

IMO, it's unlikely anything would ever get to zero, and the number was thrown in for dramatic effect to illustrate the point of separation.

Simply MeIt's all about confidence. Isn't that the definition of a 'con' game?#4760002/06/01; 12:48:15

From Mr. Gresham's recent posting of 'The Bubble Fix',
Posted By: SV Bear) <snip> "So as the Fed bares its soul, there can be no mistaking its aim. It's all about confidence......."

My comment: It's all about confidence. And is that not the definition of a CON game?...a scam?...a sting? The Fed's rate cuts, the Bush administrations tax cuts, the POG stomping that takes place nearly daily in NY, the everlasting optimism of talking heads on CNBC, all seem to be about boosting the confidence of the US consumer. Confidence is what's required to pry the money out of the pigeon's pocket.
Without the ongoing CON being foisted on the US consumer, I believe they would be locking up the value of their money (just as tightly as the Japanese)with an eye to the gathering Euro/Energy/ME-War storm clouds gathering. But everyone wants to believe that the booming party of the '90s can last forever....and so the CON game succeeds. To steal a reference from Black Blade, we are being conned into "dancing, singing and playing all summer".
In other words, we, the peasants, are being conned by a free dinner in the Titanic's ballroom while the first-class passengers are grabbing the lifeboats.
In fact, the signs pointing the way to lifeboats have all been taken down (they were a depressing distraction...you won't need them anyway). The only way to find a lifeboat these days is with the help of the crew (Trail Guide/Another). And the best-known lifeboat (gold) has been camouflaged (volumes of paper gold contracts to drive down LBMA fix).
OK, I'll drop the stupid analogies. What I want to know is who will end up controlling the gold mines. I don't care who owns them, just who controls them. And I want to know their allegiances....family, social ideology, religious belief. I want to know their agenda.

Anybody got a clue about who will wind up owning the vast majority of the gold? Generations of wealth, just waiting to be dug up for the right price?
simply me

PS..to Topaz & Pandagold: Try Windows ME (Millennium Edition). It's much more stable than earlier versions...although Win'95 was the best IMO. WinME fixes most of the stability problems of Win'98 and has some neat features. You can install the upgrade without affecting your current data files. With any Windows prduct, however, you're always going to be plagued with lock-ups and the "blue screen of death".
simply
simply

JMBBUSH TAX CUT PUT ON HOLD#4760102/06/01; 12:55:23

President Bush has promised to bring both Democrats and Republicans together, put all the facts on the table, and come up with a viable tax cut plan.
Well guess what....BUBBA and HILLARY STOLE THE TABLE.

Randy: If I don't hear from you pretty soon, you'll get more of this;)

Randy (@ The Tower)Helping: JMB (02/06/01; 11:50 - usagold.com msg#: 47592)#4760202/06/01; 13:02:18

http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=comex+delivery

There you are, my good man. Thanks for the kind words behind the scenes.
R PowellDelivery#4760302/06/01; 13:04:16

Flatlander

Re: your question on delivery.
"A futures contract is simply an agreement for a seller to deliver a specified quantity of a particular grade of a commodity to a predetermined location on a certain date."
This from "How the Futures Markets Work".
It's been estimated that about 98% of these contracts are offset before delivery. That is what was sold is bought back and what was bought is sold. This offsetting cancels one contract. Delivery occurs when the buyer does not offset by a specified time and is then obligated to take delivery. JMB is reporting that Goldman Sacks is taking delivery of gold. Someone (Goldman's client) is accumulating physical gold. If that someone buys enough, the POG should rise. Speculators buy and sell contracts for profit, farmers or their co-ops deliver grains for delivery to people like General Mills in order to keep Wheaties and Corn Flakes on our breakfast table.
It would be interesting to find out WHO Goldman's client is and whether there are more orders for delivery.
The book mentioned above is a good starter book on the who, what, where, why and whens of the commodity markets.
Hope this helps
Rich

PandagoldSimply me#4760402/06/01; 13:13:31

Thanks for the tip on the windows problem. I'm ready to try anything.

I wish it was as easy to fix as answer you query about who owns (will own?) most of the gold. The same ones who have owned directly, indirectly, controlled it, you name it, for centuries. Sorry, ( and I truly am)but that's as far as I dare go. But then, you know all the time don't you. You're just kidding (smile)

R PowellCut and Paste#4760502/06/01; 13:16:00

JMB

Just figured it out myself. Drag your curser over what is to be copied. This should highlight it.
RIGHT click the mouse to bring up instructions. Click on "cut".
Go to wherever you want to paste this information. RIGHT click again and ask your computer to "paste" by clicking on paste. Voila!
It is not recommended that you paste anything here posted by Brian Pascal from Kitco, just good gold information, good news is prefered.
Rich

Mr GreshamSimply Me#4760602/06/01; 13:19:50

Confidence. And at the end of a bubble, everyone is watching but one thing: Other People's Confidence. Not fundamentals, not technicals, not the news, not their own risk preference. As soon as they think OTHER people are losing confidence, and they realize that THEY are the "Greater Fools", down she goes... (they might as well take that free dinner?)

That points to the opposite side of the boat for the contrarian. The lifeboat is likely to be in a direction not many people are running, or if they are, they're doing it quietly and NOT inviting you along. You will probably experience despair in the pit of your stomach as you run off into the darkness, and then... around the corner... there it is, with a few passengers and crew motioning you and your family to get in... quickly.

(I think mine ownership is less of an issue, for awhile, though Cambior and Ashanti were instructive. Probably the same people who have maximum access to the already-existing 130,000 tonnes aboveground...)

PandagoldIllegal?#4760702/06/01; 13:34:50

I would still like to know why they (Windows) use the term - "You have committed an illegal act". At least, when an officer gives you a ticket, he tells you what your illegal (unlawful) act' has been. Windows leave's you to figure it out for yourself, and I can't. Is it talking about gold?

As Gates is supposed to be 'in silver', maybe I should try changing my interest. Or, maybe if he uses some of his released money on buying a gold mine, it will discontinue.

Come to think of it, wouldn't owning a producing gold mine be the best way for such as he to invest in gold. While it's in the ground it's safe - no storage charges. And if the mine just ticked over - no losses, he would still be on a good thing while waiting for the day. There are some good bargains at the moment, he could pick up for small change (to him)

JMBR POWELL...N.M.#4760802/06/01; 14:06:06

Rich, were you referring to the Kitco Flash, brian "W" pascal? You got a good laugh out of me on that one, so here's one back at you.

Thank you for the Cut and Paste instructions. Would you happen to have the instructions for webtv?

N.M.: Please refer to R POWELL's post to FLATLANDER. Don't hesitate to ask any questions (within reason) when you get the urge. There are many people here who will gladly share their knowledge. One other thing, BUY SOME REAL GOLD!

HoratioAnglo et al Hedgeing#4760902/06/01; 14:12:11

I don't see why anyone is suprised at anglo's hedgeing.
That strategy was and is a brilliant move since it started.When the perceived risk was confiscation and nationalization of the mines before Mandela took over what better way to get your wealth out of the ground quickly?
THINK ABOUT IT!You sell gold forward, get immediate cash,get the cash out of the country.This leaves the banks holding a mortgage on the mine.The Gumment has the mine ,but the bank owns it.The owners take out 10 years worth of wealth out of the country,this process is being speeded up because of the depreciating Rand.Hedge every last ounce if you can,and get the rand converted before it becomes worthless.The current gumment told them "if you close the mine we will confiscate it and redistribute it among the people!What did you expect the mine owners to do sit still and let the Gumment steal everything.Its easy to see why merging with an foreign mining company was tried ,but the Gumment put a stop to it.So continue selling forward and transfer cash out!!!
Its easy to see the future....S.African bankruptsy,no one left to mine the gold that knows how,and a worthless currency.

Simply Me@Mr. Gresham & Pandagold#4761002/06/01; 14:13:47

Of course, you are both right. I suppose, as one who's eyes have only recently opened, I still blink in disbelief and ask to be pinched to see if I'm still dreaming.
I think I'll go back to lurking and searching for awhile.
Meanwhile, Pandagold, try not to break any more OS traffic laws. ;)+<
simply

Simply Me@Horatio#4761102/06/01; 14:20:38

Just had to pop back in and thank you for that perceptive angle on goldmine hedging!
simply

beestingThe Image of Lady Justice...Gold as an investment v s Gold as a storage of wealth!#4761202/06/01; 14:29:44

Lafisrap # 47593.
While reading your post I recieved the mental image of Lady Justice??....The blindfolded figure of a maiden trying to balance two Golden plates with known evidence to reach a conclusion.
Good post sir, using the current low price of Gold anyone that had invested in Gold in U.S. dollars since it's high of $880 per ounce would have lost dollars. A poor investment to be sure.......

But,my friend, did we close the case with all the evidence presented, or just part of the evidence?

Now, it's my understanding as a long time investor the phrase; "Timing is Everything" was not given it's proper weight measure in your scenario,Sir. All I can add here is some conjecture,math, and a personal story.

Personal story first:
In 1973 my wife and I were able to pay off the loan on a house we owned.It was an older house we had bought for $20,000 and rented to tenants. We later sold the house at a small profit.

Now lets see what would have happened in 1973 if I had taken my $20,000 and invested in physical Gold.
Gold was $35 per ounce.
If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebodys been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.

Now what if I had sold my 570 ounces of Gold when Gold was $850 per ounce, that equals...$484,500...I would say an exceptional investment... and that was over 20 years ago.

I'm only trying to prove the point timing is everything when it comes to investing.

Now, lets say a person is buying Gold for a different reason.
Statistics say 80% is used for jewelry, and we know there is a great markup in jewelry, so it seems people in the jewelry business make a good profit no matter what the "Spot" price.

But there is another reason people buy Gold and IMHO this is the reason USAGOLD puts up with our silly nonsense...That reason is "Wealth Preservation"!
Many people spend all their income on living expenses?
Now, say you would like to be different and have something to show besides your home and investments as you get older. Isn't untaxed(by the year)Gold the perfect vehicle for that? If a person sets aside say 10% of their monthly budget for...other use...and splits "other use" into 50% investing and 50% wealth preservation....Does that seem like a good long term plan for anybody?
I think we should put up another scale of Lady Justice and see how other other wealth preservation vehicles compare to GOLD! I think not only Goldhearts, but almost anyone that weighs all the facts would agree, Gold has historically been and still is the best vehicle for long term preservation of wealth!...Thanks for Reading...beesting.

HoratioGold will rise#4761302/06/01; 14:33:58

Only when the S.African miners get all they can out of the country and the Gumment stops transfers of cash and assets from leaving the country will gold rise.They are going to hedge every last ounce they can.Draconian measures ,currensy controls,and restrictions on what people can take with them will speed the process.S.Africa is in a race to the bottom.
Why buy S.African stocks and put yourself in that position?Its not that the value isn't there,it a political problem!!!

SALMONThe Gold Business - plain and simple#4761402/06/01; 14:54:02

I am just echoing many good comments on the subject. But it seems necessary to cover the same territory again, over and over, until mining executives get it right.
How many pharmaceutical companies spend billions of dollars on research and development and then turn around and sell their drugs below the cost of production?
That appears to be what is happening in the gold industry. They are spending billions of dollars looking for gold, then mining it and selling below the cost of production. They are continually reducing their resources and writing off their assets. Not a very astute business practice. I listen to every conference call of the major gold producers and what I hear is laughable. They continually congratulate themselves for the excellent job they are doing - losing shareholder value. And, how about those mining analysts? They act like mining engineers. They ask highly technical questions just to make themselves appear knowledgeable and important.

How about asking plain and simple questions like: How long are you planning to go on mining unprofitably?

Barrick and Co. like to present themselves as leader of the industry. Now there's a leader for you. If you combine the entire write off of their mining operations along with the derivatives they are presently writing off, you have a cool 2 billion dollar loss. Good eh? This is no doubt the reason their stock has been going south for the past five years. Now they are talking about producing 5 million oz a year of gold. Why? None of those fancy mining analysts asked them that question. Wouldn't it be better to just produce 2 million oz and be profitable? Now, that would be a good question. Plain and simple.
There are a lot of good posters on this forum. Let's gather resources and step up the pressure on the gold mining companies.

Randy (@ The Tower)Something already seen by Centennial clients and subscribers at MK's Commentary & Review page#4761502/06/01; 14:59:07

http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html

Excerpt from South China Daily Post, 2/5/01

"In the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, television cameras focused on a distraught housewife as she scrabbled through the burnt-out rubble of her home. She pulled a cashbox from the charred wreckage and opened it. All the paper money inside had been burnt to a crisp. But a gold ingot was untouched by the flames. This powerful testimony to gold's indestructibility led to sales spiking upwards in Japan. Now a few investment professionals are whispering gold might be worth a look again - as a hedge against a potential earthquake brewing on global financial markets. . . . . A financial disaster, such as a US bank taking a big hit in the fallout from the California power crisis, would be an example of an event which could suddenly make gold a hot investment."

As a reminder, paper currency need not be physically destroyed to lose its value. It can more easily "rot invisibly within" from bad government and central bank policy. It may still look like a dollar, but man, it won't work as hard as a dollar should. Choose tangible assets to "lock in" the wealth of your past productivity...and gold is the most liquid of all such assets. Get you some.

PandagoldChange of Government#4761602/06/01; 15:12:17

Change of government. The 'peacemaker'(as in six shooter) has got in in Israel. Hold your breath
BelgianDoes Anglogold want to tell us something....?#4761702/06/01; 15:43:35

Again 50% of Future production in the Hedging mill !
Why ? Why does Number One Goldproducer, wants us, to hear this message ? Is it to assure their shareholders, that future dividends, will be provided ? Naaahhhh, not really.
What do the Oppenheimers know, that we don't ? Do they know why POG is as low as it is and do they know for how long POG will remain low (or lower) ? I bet they know !

The strategy of selling, so called, marginal mines...and hedging for cash to buy long life high grade mines...is adding weight to a low (lower) POG vision.

May I suggest to Bill Murphy and GATA to have a tete à tete with Oppenheimer, somewhere in a quiet corner, at Capetown.
Ask him, why he is so damned sure that low POG is the result of no buying (investment) interest ! Why are hedgers so selfconfident in their vision of a low (very low) POG for the next 5 years ?
A much lower POG, results automatically in higher consumer demand. A continious lower POG is eliminating more and more
producer's offer. The offer/demand equation, becomes counterproductive in time for the hedged masses of gold.

Anonymous Experts (?) state that South American states are selling their goldreserves, for reasons of dollarisation.
They even sell us their expertise on the Euro as a negative for POG ! Do the Oppenheimers know much more about Central Banks intentions, regarding goldreserves ? Is Anglogold switching into survival mode ?
The Oppenheimer tentacles are very influencial. For this reason, I refuse to believe, that their behaviour is strictly limited to gold-production, as such. Selling 50% of total production into the next 5 years is "very" significant. The reason for this bolt decission is a fundamental one and not a pure organisationnal one !
A lot can happen into a 5 year future. Goldmasters don't need crystal balls. They simply know.
Gold Fields (number II) isn't (yet) hedging for the simple reason that their ore grades are high enough to remain flexible (profitable) for the time beeing. (Driefontein-Kloof). Imagine they are the next one, to come up with a hedging announcement ?

2.500 tons/year, are not decisive on POG in actual circumstances. But speculating or knowing for sure that POG will remain low for the next 5 years is raising fundamental questions. Additionnal hedging at 263$ level, can't impossibly be considered as an appropiate strategy. To me, it sounds more like a kryptic message ? Goldproducers, also know our pro gold arguments. And that's why I strongly suspect they know just that essential bit more than we do.

And that brings us back, again and again, ...to the central Banks as goldholders/leasers/sellers. The same pertinent (one and only) question on "the purpose" of the W.A. !!!???
Was it to fundate "confidence" (say price) in an intentionnal massive sale of 32.000 tons of gold ? Do goldproducers know, that CB's want to dispose it off ?
Why do CB's want to protect themselves, against themselves ?
If you don't have the intention to sell your goldreserves...why do you have to agree on a sell-limitation for the next 5 years ?????? Pure coincidence that ABX and AU are hedging massively into these same 5 years ? There is something fundamentally wrong in the whole logic of these actions.

Is it a coincidence that POG ('71) 34$ to 260$ ('oo) gives an historical average return of 6%/year ? I do not buy the simplicity of "investment", desinterest, stated, repeatedly by WGC and alikes ! There are too much sound reasons for investing in gold. There is investment enthousiasm (sept.'99-spike !). But each attempt is paralysed professionally. Carry trade or/and dollarprotection are doubtfull to argument POG's behaviour
as fundamental reasons for what is happening. There must be something more dramatic ? And I can't quess "what" !

Are we neglecting to investigate the intentions of the CB's, out of fear to be confronted with the 32.000 tons question ? If the goldmasters have the intention of selling more gold than generally expected...why don't they name goldbuyers to assure a flood of confidence and a higher price for their sales? The POG-800$ spike in 1980 didn't provoque a confidence crisis. On the contrary, I would say...it was the beginning of the greatest and longest expansion all times. So, what is so shocking on a POG rise ?
A minimum amount of free dollars, provoques such a high price-rise that instant profit taking would emerge. Espescially after a painfull 5 year abnormal decline.
There is such a tremendous amount of paper that can chase so little physical gold, that the same V-up-down move of 1980 would occur. The sooner it would happen, the more confident I am about this likely scenario. But if this event is artificially postponed...I suspect the odds are in favor of a much more dramatic impact.

What I am trying to say, or better to research, is that we are missing a vital practical fact. Simply because nothing seems what it is.

Does AU know of CB-gold, waiting to be sold and therefore wants to maintain a low POG to absorb the gold into jewelry by artificial (forced) high demand for reason of low (attractive-unresistable) price ?
Who is or can influence the CB's management of the people's goldreserves ? Is a dollar/yen/euro, intentionnal "new" balance in the making ? Without a classical role for gold ? Are there coordinative ties with underground gold holders and above ground gold holders ?
Can we find answers in South Africa ? (Bill ?) Or are we asking the wrong questions ?
What CBs stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities, should.... ????(AG)
Hommage to our Goldhero's, who are fighting and pushing for the answers ! Thanks !

HoratioIsrael#4761802/06/01; 16:05:14

Just as it took a Democrat to cut welfare in order to be accepted and it took Republican to cut military spending (Bush Sr.).It will take the most strident right winger in Israel to make peace ,in order for it to be accepted by all.
This government (Sharon)is a signal that peace will be made.

LeighBill Murphy#4761902/06/01; 16:12:20

Chris Powell just e-mailed a message about Bill Murphy's travels. Tomorrow Bill will attend a breakfast for 130 South African business and political leaders. Pat Robertson, head of Christian Broadcasting Network, is scheduled to attend. Wouldn't it be GREAT if Bill convinced Pat Robertson about the gold conspiracy, and Pat went back to Virginia Beach and talked about it on his television station? Now, THERE'S a way to get Main Street buzzing about gold!
OROUSAGOLD - off-topic posts - the 'flation debate#4762002/06/01; 16:15:31

The ongoing ego contest on the matter of 'flation is distilling the principles and the lines of reasoning behind them. I am following it with great interest since people who have attached their identity to an argument would be most revealing of their core underlying principles and assumptions regarding the object of discussion/argument. Though many would be put off by the acrid atmosphere and the bits of fur flying, I think the complaints are misplaced in this regard.

BTW, after ignoring this book on my shelves for months, I am reading Virginia Postrel's "The Future and Its Enemies" and advise all to at least take a peak. Her reasoning sheds much light on this kind of debate, I would bet she would view its messiness as an indication of importance and of progress being made. Marvelous.

PandagoldHoratio#4762102/06/01; 16:21:19

And the price?
Tree in the ForestLafisrap, IronHead, JMB#4762202/06/01; 16:25:26

Sir Lafisrap, in regards to your prediction list from FOA.

#1 Was that the dollar and gold would rise together. This has not happened...yet. The game is not over so we still have time for this, though I confess that I see the dollar collapsing when gold really pops.

#2 Was that the BIS would support gold at $280. I believe he intended to mean that they would do this before the Euro introduction which was January 1999. I think they did this. Of course after this the gold price collapsed and they did not support it. But keep in mind that once the Euro was in place, debt was being transfered from the $ to the Euro and this destroys dollars and creates Euros. The result: a strong dollar and weak Euro. This drove price of gold in dollars downward. And of course we still have the paper pushers going full steam which doesn't help things.

IronHead: Will definitely get 2 wheels when gold goes to the moon!

JMB: Thanks for the link.

Mr GreshamBelgian, Horatio, Lafisrap#4762302/06/01; 16:28:33

Belgian: There are so many sharp questions in your post. You keep turning the puzzle to look at it in new ways. We must read it several times, and you must engage in reviewing it more often, to help us keep the right questions before us.

"What do the Oppenheimers know". Everytime a question like this is asked (substitute Buffett, GS, Abdullah, Greenspan, etc etc) it goes through my mind: "They dagnabbity better well know! Whichever side of the situation they're on, they would make it their entrepreneurial/CEOish business to know. And if they didn't, they'd be sending out their best sleuths to find out, and some other hired sleuths to check up on those." They'd spend what it took to find out. They might be acting out some part of a different plan than we know about, but they would make sure they knew who the other players were and what were their games.

Didn't Another say the trail went through South Africa and Saudi Arabia?

Horatio: So you're saying the mines aren't short on Gold, so much as they're short on Gummints, right? That sounds like a reasonable bet under likely circumstances ahead.

Lafisrap: Add "Another" # to your list: the tying of Saudi oil and gold prices to equivalent low levels. (Which leaves the question of recent high oil price pointing to what change in that quiet deal? SA not satisfied with the CB/BB/mine paper they've gotten?)

Belgian: One post awhile ago (as I remember) asked me not to mention W.A. as an answer to its question. And yet it has been the major price spike in the past 7-10 years, and it happened in a few days. That meant that big players, not small goldbugs, were watching CB action closely. They, from closer vantagepoints than ours, were either correct, or deceived, in the significance of CB declarations. Which is it?

Are elephants now battling, and even though we blades of grass get trampled at times, we have found some sparkly MiracleGro dust that might aid in our growing back a little faster once the elephants are gone?

Tree in the ForestAll#4762402/06/01; 16:34:12

I wanted to mention one more thing. We now have General Ariel Sharon as prime minister of Israel and General Colin Powell as US secretary of state. Sharon is a hawk and Powell has a bone to pick with Saddam Hussein. US troops are in Israel. War is now a foregone conclusion. IMHO these things are planned for the benefit of TPTB. Then the media does their thing to whip up passions, cover some Americans getting killed and voile. It's just a matter of when.
HoratioBankers#4762502/06/01; 16:38:47

The S.African mine owners and the bankers made a deal to prevent confiscation of the mines.
Remember when BANKERS are jumping out of windows ,you might want to consider following them.There must be money to be made down there!

CoBra(too)Mr. Kelvin Williams, the spokesman of AngloGold quoted ...#4762602/06/01; 17:03:52

... recently (according to USAGOLD -Notable & Quotable)" As far as we're concerned the central banks issue is no longer an issue."

... In his recent speech at the Indaba Gold Conference and still stressed an overhang of gold-supply - and that may be why his company is adding another 3,5moz/p.a. to the market today. Makes sense? - for a hedge fund disguised as a gold producer, losing its pants?, you'd certainly have to come up with other plans to convince me - to take you seriously.

Whatever the reason, I still feel it's treason to their shareholders and then, they never understood the reality of their product!

- Horatio and Belgian came up with some interesting explanations, which I still don't buy, since I've heard equally good - is it political, cabalistic, in the sense of 'old Harry, wh"O", or new Woodoo in an era of Fiat Waterloo? - tales of Robin Hood. In this case it means, help the poor, old bullion banks to survive, while counting the (string-)beans, they strive as they ensure to put their credit knife into your means... cheers -cb2

PS: Ladies Leigh and Simply Me, thank you both for your always timely reminders on reality ... salutations

HoratioOil#4762702/06/01; 17:09:40

How do you lower the price of oil? You support Sharon government as only the hawks can make peace.You get Gen. Powell to make peace with Hussein only the Political General (not the field General)can do this.The U.S. will help pay to rebuild Palistine with lower oil prices.Israel had to keep a state of war going in the mid-east,that way the U.S.had to stay engaged to protect its oil interest and at the same time help Israels security.Israel must be secure before U.S. oil supply will be secure.Things are never what they appear to be.IMHO
Mr GreshamFun at the Fed#4762802/06/01; 17:14:44

http://www.satirewire.com/news/0101/fedrave.shtml

Next: "Make Love, Not Earnings Guidance"?
CoBra(too)Gee! Mr. G. your sense of humour -#4762902/06/01; 18:03:23

- Is, probably only surpassed by your sense of mediating! - Loved your FO-(pen)MC, behind "closed" doors - ya hear t'e snores to endorse another cut of the interest rate, coming too late ... and without remorse it was cut to the seams, without debate.

I see so many posters here, who fear the coming, breathtaking, awakening to reality - of a commodity hidden by the banality - of the only money of old - (where are you hiding ... -get you some- Ari?) - gold - ... cb2 -

Chris PowellGATA appeals to South Africa with ad in national financial daily#4763002/06/01; 18:04:08

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/644

It's also a bit of a reply to a speech
by Anglogold's Kelvin Williams, rebuking
GATA, at the opening of the Indaba 2001
conference.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

OROStocks, Lies, and Tickertape, Black Blade - new gold hedging#4763102/06/01; 18:22:43

It should be noted that the sellers of the hedges are usually willing to do so due to 2 expectations on their part: that prices would rise, that in order to displace more gold from its holders (the lack of which has caused the threat of higher prices) is its replacement with credible gold supply contracts which can only be issued by miners.

I would venture to say that the situation is similar to the one in July 99, just before the last time that not enough gold was available for the pre Indian wedding season stock up period. April-May is the secondary peak consumption period, most likely there is insufficient supply. Having pushed shoved pulled and goaded all miners open to influence into producing gold commitments and having convinced speculators of the impending demise of gold, a mad scramble for more physical supply should occur soon, and results of the next political scramble for cover will be nothing like the intended result.

slingshotConfidence,Getting The GOLD.#4763202/06/01; 18:35:27

Good day To All.
The past several weeks I have read quite a few postings that sometimes I became slightly confused. Not to worry, adhering to my plan of acquisition of Gold keeps me from falling off the trail. Standing at the bottom of the ladder, looking up at those who have played the gold game for sometime, I can't help but wonder how many have passed up this forum because of the huge amount of information that must be absorbed to understand a small amount of the fundamentals of the market. Thus they have missed the chance of climbing the ladder to wealth. How do you get people to buy gold. They first must have the desire to buy and then you can teach them. Now that Gold is at a bargain price I have tried to talk to a couple of friends and the subject about gold was a flop! They must be in debt up to their ears. Now to the point of my post. I have confidence that I am making a great investment. Gold is at or near the low in years. If it goes lower I just buy more with my allotment.
Gold is backed by History. What do you think the Vietnam boat people took with them when they left Vietnam? When was the last time you heard of anyone turning down payment in Gold? When you take all the information in this forum and analyze it you have to admit that the percentage of making a profit in gold is greatly weighted to the positive.
Here is a small way of getting the Gold.

Put your pennies to work. The U.S. penny is zinc with a copper wash covering after 1982. Before that date they are full copper. I save 1981 and before because they are worth
2Cents and use 1982 and after to get the gold. This may take some time but think about all those pennies in jar doing nothing. You trade zinc/copper for gold. I managed to get two 1/10th this way. It was a big jar. Oh, yes, I did pick alot of pennies off the ground. Good exercise and sombody else help me pay for the gold.

From one post; $6000 an .oz? I will be happy with $350 and the rest is icing on the cake.

Slingshot

tedwGold and silver#4763302/06/01; 18:53:17

http://www.usagold.com

Im thinking seriously about exchanging some Kruggerands for some silver.

The question comes up what form of silver.Im thinking about buying a silver bag but also considering rounds. Maybe 1/2 and 1/2 is the way to go. What do you think?

Mr GreshamIn from the Cold: Provocateur (?)#4763402/06/01; 19:19:33

If you can buy a house on a mortgage, or a motor vehicle on a loan or lease, why not Another real asset: gold? (Depending on your overall asset/liability, income/expense picture)
FlatlanderJMB and R Powell#4763502/06/01; 19:44:06

Thanks for helping me understand the arcaine language! I just could not come up with what "stop" really meant. Now I know. (grin)
HoratioVietnam#4763602/06/01; 19:49:51

I have many Vietnemese friends that told me it took a pound of gold to get passage on any ship out.The ships were overloaded rotted out and barely able to float yet still commanded 1 pound of gold.
Horatio(No Subject)#4763702/06/01; 20:18:56

Anglo

Of coarse Anglo is going to rebuke GATA ,GATA is rocking thier boat.Anglo wants as much time as possible to keep hedgeing and sending the money out of the country.Even if they mine at a loss ,what does it matter?anything is better than nothing.This will continue until the S.African Gumment finds a way to stop the hedgeing.Only they can do it.All this was caused by those do-gooders that wanted Mandela to confiscate the mines and the Gumment.The mine owners will hedge till the last ounce is sold from S.A.or someone does something to change the confiscation process.Thats what started this whole mess,now the law of unintended consequences takes over.Socialists are static thinkers,they think they can confiscate and nobody else will change thier actions.The result of this is the Rand will go to zero.They must continue to devalue to stay profitable,the owners must continue to hedge to get thier wealth out of the ground and leave the confiscators with a mine whose gold is owed to the banks.Theres more than one way to skin a cat.!
mhchuckAnglo-Gold and Harmony Gold announce increased hedging.#4763802/06/01; 20:35:28

Bill Murphy, former wide receiver for the Boston Patriots, and now chairman of the Gold Anti Trust Action Association Committee (GATA). Had taken GATA's game plan against the Hannibal Cannibals to Africa in an attempt to gain support of this leading gold producing nation. Murphy, in a move reminiscent of his playing days, was streaking across Africa, and had just broken into the clear and was about to receive the ball from the Africans, when he was intentionally "face masked" by one of the Hannibal defenders. Murphy's helmet was ripped from his head and he fell to the ground, then with the whole world watching, a 400 pound Hannibal linemen came over and kneed Murphy in the groin after he was down. No penalty was called on the play. GATA appealed the play to the replay booth that refused to overturn it despite video evidence that went against the Hannibals. Instead of GATA being charged with 1 timeout, all their timeouts were taken away so they couldn't challenge another call.

Murphy interviewed at halftime said, "What the Hannibal's don't realize is that sometimes it's not about winning and losing, but how you play the game. If you play with a focused mind, integrity, and heart, you expect good things to happen. Desire will win championships over brute force every time. The Hannibal's can crush our bodies, but they can't crush our spirit. And if at the end of the game, we look at the scoreboard and see that we have lost, but knowing we have played with integrity and fortitude, and that our loss was due to an injustice, then we are champions in our mind. Now let's go out and finish this game."

mhchuck

Peter Asherbeesting -- msg#: 47612#4763902/06/01; 20:35:45

beesting: we need to complete the equation here. You said >>>>If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebody's been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.<<<<<

Factor in the rental value saved by those taxes and maintenance.

working-kirkGold and silver#4764002/06/01; 20:54:50

It depends on how much you want to convert and how much money you set aside.

For me the best value is 90% us silver coins dated 1964 or before. (I have a personal prefence to the walking liberty
50 cent piece because I think personally they are best looking coins past or present but because a lot of worn you tend to get 715 ounces instead of 725. I think 90% silver is best because is it U.S. currency and so legal tender (However if you spent it at face value, you're a fool.) That mean when the silver explosion arrives it will be the most recognized form of silver. All you have to do is look at the date and the edge. With silver rounds, if you are going to trade with others, there will be a slight eduction process where you teach others. A bag of 90% silver average around $3,500. Like I said, I prefer walking liberty because while they are U.S. currency, they have been out of circulation for a whole and so not likely to be mistaken for quarters or dimes or the base metal coins in circulation and so you are not likely to spend them in a vending machine by accident.

After I've got three bags, Then I would consider Silver rounds. A bag of round consist of a thousand coin-like tokens and will cost around $5,000. And then GOLD!

Another thing, we are buying gold and silver as a hedge against the failure of fiat paper money but when that chaos hits how shall we determine value?

First, the relationship of gold to the paper money supply. It has been stated that inflation would price gold between
$1,000 an ounce to $25,000. How were those figures arrived at. The $1,000 an ounce would be if there was no manuplation in the gold market. $6,000 an ounce is arrived at taking in inflation and the manuplation. $25,000 an ounce is taking in The M3 money supply of paper, credit, and the constant expansion rate. And if somehow if we could figure out what the price of gold would be considering derivatives to available supply, I don't have the knowledge or information to do that but my guess is it would make the $25,000 per ounce look like chump change.

So we have a price for gold. Now for silver.

Currently, a dollar in 90% silver is $3.50 and in silver round $4.75 but to make it easier because I brought silver higher I average 4x for 90% and 5x for .999 bullion rounds.
But how about in the future, what would be a fair price for silver. Well, historically silver, has been between 10 to 20 that of gold. That is to say for 10 ounces of silver you could get 1 ounce of gold if silver was overpriced and historically the U.S. tried to maintence 20 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. But we know silver is currently underpriced to gold. Currently it takes 55 ounces of silver to price one ounce of gold assuming silver is 5.00 and ounce and gold $275 and ounce.

That means when gold reaches $1,000 an ounce, silver should be $18.00 an ounce. when it is $6,000 it should be $109 and when it is $25,000 it should be $454.00

But we are forgetting something. Silver is undervalued in its relationship to gold. So if it was to return to its historical values, an ounce of silver would be 1/10 to 1/20 the price of an ounce of silver. So if gold was selling at
$1,000 and ounce silver would be $50 to $100 and ounce. Remember silver was at these prices when the hunt Brothers tried to corner the market.

But there is one last thing. I been reading the works of Ted Butler and he is currently claiming there is less silver than gold. So when it explodes, there is the possiblability of silver selling for more than gold. I don't believe it is necessarily the case. Like when the Hunts tried to flood the market and silver was at $50.00 an ounce, silver came pouring out of the woodwork. But because of inflation, if and when the silver does come pouring out of the woodwork I believe the price of silver will stop at $50.00 or $100.00 and not drop this time around. Because of time, if you have gold, I would not exchange all my gold for silver. Besides, I think gold, especially Kruggerands have an advantage. The advantage is they have been out of favor so long, you can pretend it not gold just copper and keep it. I mentioned in an earlier post how I saw a drug dealer
get shaken down by the cops andthe cops tooks the paper money but allowed them to keep the gold. Hey, since not to many people recognize gold, if you are ever in a shakedown situation, you too may be able to pretend it is copper.

Last, the situation may be so chaos that you can't determine
the value of silver. In that case, I would price a 90% silver quarter as the price of a loaf of bread. A silver dollar or round as lunch money, a 1/10 gold as a pair of shoes. A 1/2 gold as a month'rent and a one ounce gold coin as month rent and all living expenses.

Hopes this help and I'm sure our hosts USAGOLD will be happy to help if you need historical information about the relationship of gold and silver.



tedw (02/06/01; 18:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47633)

> I'm thinking seriously about exchanging some Kruggerands > for some silver.

> The question comes up what form of silver.Im thinking > about buying a silver bag but also considering rounds.
> Maybe 1/2 and 1/2 is the way to go. What do you think?

HoratioConfiscation#4764102/06/01; 21:00:30

I used to be in the Fast Food business.I ran it profitably for 25 years.The parent company decided to confiscate my business .They wanted to take over all the Franchises in my city and make it a company town.To make a long story short I bled it dry while I fought them off.When they finally got what they wanted, the business was on its way out.Two years later they folded up and left town after they lost 6 million and completely destroyed what I built.This is whats happening in S.Africa IMHO.
Been there, done that.
The Gumment will get the mines with a BIG mortgage on it.All the gold in the ground will be owed to the banks.
They can't fight the banks,they can destroy the currency.

GoldflyLeigh - Bill Murphy & Pat Robertson#4764202/06/01; 21:10:28

I remember Pat R talking about Gold being real money at least 15 years ago. He made several of the points that are talked up on this forum about dollars NOT being money without openly saying that paper assets are poop.

My bet though is that this wouldn't make prime time. But I could be wrong, ya never know.....

goldfanThe decline and fall of economics?#4764302/06/01; 21:32:42

Science says that if you want to be clear in your communications, you have to maintain a high signal to noise ratio and also to provide a lot of redundancy, saying the same thing a number of different ways. This all takes energy. As systems grow and become more complex, they require more enrgy input to maintain. Constant energy inputs lead to susceptibility to chaos dynamics. The system can longer manage its energies stably and will tend to implode in chaos.

So communication systems tend to deteriorate over time, to gain in probability, to have more entropy, more chaos and less discernible information (as opposed to data, which is not information until one can decipher some meaning from it).

I believe that all complex systems eventually fail, they return to simplicity. Entropy tends to increase and cannot be denied forever.

An economic system is held together by communication. What we have got is becoming increasingly unclear in its communications. This is obvious, else, my idea of hwat is going on, like that of a lot the Knights at this forum, would not be so at variance with most others in our society.

So I am wondering whether in fact the entire so-called science of economics and financial analysis, is going to just blow away, to repudiate fiat money, and return to a pure barter system involving gold or whatever as the medium of exchange. Keep double entry bookkeeping as a useful simple invention, but lose everything else. Something like what happened to the Roman system when the Huns invaded and the whole Roman complex disintegrated.(An oversimplification to make the point)

Definition: An economic system is good if it maintains stable prices over long periods of time.

Hypothesis: A good economic system is like an ecological system, in that neither can be maintained stable by egregious human intervention, and will keep themselves stable so long as humans don't try to manage them, but just be content to live and die with them as they make themselves to be.

Question: What are the measures that tell us an economic system is stable. Stable prices? Adequate but not too great a money supply? (How would we know this? )

Can we predict from the volatility of appropriate parameters that we are at a saddle point, leading to chaotic breakdown, system too complicated and under too much stress to contain its energies without crashing, to resurrect if it at all, in some form we know not? What are the predictive parameters of the present system?

Sure would welcome some thoughts on these questions.

Goldfan

goldfanRe ORO 47535 Japan character and economics#4764402/06/01; 21:38:23

re ORO (02/06/01; 01:30:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 47535)
Sierra Madre - character norms and economics

I've had fun perusing this post from ORO, breaking it down for analysis as follows:

Sure would like comments from ORO or anyone on this!!!

I've separated all ORO's statements into my idea of Systemic (S) government actions, and Data (or information) (D) and tried to imagine and comment on what this would be like under a pure gold money regime, no government intervention in markets, no government sponsored fiat money.

My premise is that the new regime would be incapable of the goverment sponsored malinvestment that leads to distortions, and would be self-adjusting towards stable prices.

* means I sure would like a comment from ORO on this one
Note Ive put most of the S statements at the end and collected all the D together below.

I've put an X in front of those which wouldn't exist under a no government, no government fiat regime. I comment individually on some.

XD... Japanese make work programs now running at over 20% of GDP, and

XD...having accumulated to 126% of GDP in government debt (ours is now 55%, having reached near 100% before),

D...we see the result in their sliding real trade surplus, >>adjusts itself automatically<<<

D...their still extremely high prices, >>>people are entitled to sell coffee or whatever, for what they can get<<<

*XS and D... and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.
>>> a source of malinvestment, consequent major boom and bust ??<<<

In short,


XD...Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters
are the source of the high prices and the declining excess in trade.


D...As a response to the high prices, people in Japan add to their savings rates, though consummate savers by tradition and because of their rather high age, >>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, as they want.<<<

D...it is because they are priced out of the market that they are saving so much more today than before.
>>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, as they want.<<<

*XD and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.

>>> how locked? Is it just the interest rate drag? the saved money could be spent by the government?? Good manipulation though, entice the people to save with high interest rate government bonds, pay them interest out of their own taxes.... another locus of malinvestment??<<<

XD...Furthermore, much of the paper in these accounts is still yielding very high rates relative to new paper.

XD...It was only last year that these accounts started to mature, and people now face the decision of what to do with the old money.

*D...The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust).
>>>who decided on these investments, the people or the government? I assume that in a pure gold money regime, people would get the info they needed from a trusted source, to make their own decisons.They might turn out to be bad investments, but couldn't be malinvestments, which can only occur in fiat regimes subject to government influence.<<<

D...Furthermore, the characteristic Japanese choice in response to low interest rates is to take the cash and stuff it in the mattress. At least one can be sure that the mattress won't go under, even if it may go up in smoke
>>>never wrong to put Au under the mattress!!!<<<

D...For the new hire in Japan, a late age marriage (their folks married early) and the baby bust make income for the talented very good. >>>people can pay what they like for talent or otherwise<<<

D...For the new blue collar and low level office worker, things are not so hot because where his predecessor's income improved from the economies of scale achieved with a growing adult population and growing export markets up to the 80s, he faces overstaffed production floors, offices, and few prospects of improvement.
>>>have to make some cutbacks, maybe change jobs!!<<<

D...The low management people are old and ageing, and have lost track of the markets, which has changed under them.
>>>and they can no longer keep the shop open, the hotshots down the street are getting all the business, time to retire, look under the mattress!!!<<<

X S and D...Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock.
>>>fewer and smaller shocks these days!!!<<<

XD...The downside has been the retention of non-viable businesses that would have to close anyway, consuming capital and keeping workers occupied in uneconomical jobs and preventing them from changing skills.
>> >malinvestment, big time!!<<<

XD...The other success, a very temporary one to be sure, has been the maintenance of low price inflation.
>> self adjusting now<<<

XD...Japan has increased money supply and debt asset supply (government debt) without causing higher prices


XD...The result has been a rather quiet price picture as Yen assets finance dollar and foreign assets (which allow us to buy Japan's exports) rather than go into the economy directly.


*XD...The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid

>>>I don't get how the people would worry about the future taxes needed to pay government debt, but maybe I misunderstand this point. Anyway, in a future without government intervention, the problem disappears. People can save or spend as they wish.<<<


D...Low income from investments is also pushing the huge Japanese baby boom generation to save more because they are expecting not to have sufficient income coming out of their investment portfolio at current rates,
>>>people are entitled to save rather than spend, for whatever reson they dream up<<<


D...and they have not considered anything but paper as investments since prices have yet to be cause for worry.
>>>at least the future purchasing power of the paper now is not subject to malinvestment distortions, evn if we guess wrong about its quality. On our own now, have to be smart about this stuff!!!<<<

*XD...Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days,
>>>who says this stuff will have any purchasing power when its needed?<<<

D...when a larger portion of Japanese labor will be occupied taking care of the elderly and will not be able to work in production>>>How it goes in life<<<

D...The "new people" will be less loyal to Japanese products, and tend to buy more independently, requiring less salesmanship. >>>good stuff!!<<<

D...This will change retailing in Japan and allow greater competition for consumer business as well as more competition for supply contracts.>>>More goods stuff!<<<

D...Most of all, it will put price higher on the agenda for the Japanese consumer.
>>maybe some will continue to save rather than spend, their choice<<<


Below is all the stuff that won't be there in the no fiat no government gold money regime !!!

S....When one looks at Japanese make work programs,
S and D... the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.

S...Japan's government policies in finance and economic matters

S...The government has priced labor out of exporter's employ by hiring people for make work projects,

S...while maintaining trade conditions favoring exports and resisting imports.

S...Maintaining seniority rules prevents companies from replacing these people with younger ones who are more attune to the times.

D and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.

S and D...Foremost in the goals of government's efforts, and the only primary success of the policies was the prevention of a quick spill-over from corporate performance failure to the employees and regional economies in a shock.

S...because they maintained their export surplus and not allowed much dishoarding of dollar assets.
S...The make work projects and the export drive
S...while make work programs are shut down, i.e. higher taxes

FWIW
Goldfan

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tapeworking-kirk, holding silver vs. gold#4764502/06/01; 22:01:41

I think technology will have usurped the utility of silver for small purchases. We now have very small electronic scales that can weigh to the grain. I think we may all become quite adroit at trimming those roosters or Libs for our small purchases!
beestingPeter Asher # 47639....You are a Sharp one Peter...Big Smile.#4764602/06/01; 22:16:25

Your post:
beesting: we need to complete the equation here. You said >>>>If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce
Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment.. What is the house now worth?...maybe $90,000...but somebody's been paying taxes and maintenance for 28 years to keep it at that value.<<<<<
Factor in the rental value saved by those taxes and maintenance.

beesting:
Hi Peter,
Well at the time we sold the house we were getting $240 per month rent, which naturally would have gone way up by now, to keep up with local rental rates.
If we kept the rent at $240 per month at the end of the 28 year period it would be $84,000 collected in rental fees.Not a realistic number.

Soo, I'm going to take our $151,315 figure from above and divide by 28 years and it comes out to $5404 per year or an average monthly rental of about $450 per month. Which in my opinion over a 28 year period is a high figure because the house was not in a great location. Yes rents are higher now, but I'm trying to come up with a reasonable monthly rate over a 28 year period. Than if we subtract $200 per month for taxes,insurance, maintenance,travel at all hours and other expenses that comes out to $2400 per year or $56,000(might be a low figure) total for 28 years. So $151,316 - $56,000 gives us $95,316 profit over 28 years added into $90,000 present value of house = $185,316. However over the years the added income made us pay an extra $35,316 or $1261.29 average per year on our income tax return, so,$185,316 - $35,316 = $151,315 potential profit.

BUT...we're not really done yet, why did we decide to sell the house in the first place??
Answer: Continual and constant aggravation by constantly change-ing crazy tenants.
If we had kept the house I'm going to add in possible costs of the "Booby-Hatch"(personal possible medical expenses) or even our lives at $61,315 which brings us right back to our original figure of $90,000 current value of the house and as an extra bonus we still have most of our sanity...ha ha ha ha....I think....ha ha..Thanks for the math problem Peter...off to bed....Those in the Know,,,even some of us crazy ones are still buying Gold....beesting.

TEXslingshot - Pennies from heaven (post 47632)#4764702/06/01; 22:47:09

Duh....the light bulb finally came on in this dim skull of mine! Like a lot of other people, I have the habit of emptying my pocket change and throwing it in a container each day. Lots of "low value" metal hanging around. I'm going to gather it all up and trade it in for the real thing ASAP while the buying price is so low. Not being a big time investor, this will allow me a continual process to slowly accumulate the good stuff on a regular (but slow) basis. I think i may have seen a glimmer of light on the old trail tonight!
JourneymanNice work @goldfan msg#: 47644#4764802/06/01; 22:52:33

Interesting and useful approach/method/analysis, GF! And great work you and Sir Peter have done in exposing your thinking as per ORO's observations.

Regards,
Journeyman

John Doe@Goldfan#4764902/06/01; 23:09:47

http://website.lineone.net/~marc.widdowson/

Check out the above link, as it addresses the complexity question leading to societal decay.

As I recall, the author's reasoning was essentially something like: people put up with a lot of time-, energy-, and freedom-wasting junk for the sake of efficiency and just plain getting along, but at some critical point they throw up their hands and abandon the society for their own sanity and well-being. For example, suppose you had to travel further and further just to collect firewood (Aztec?), or you had to pay more and more taxes until you were better off being a slave than being a citizen (Rome?)...

In our modern context, suppose it eventually took four hours to commute each way to work due to crime or congestion, or gasoline for the commute cost $100 each way, or it cost $20,000 a year to heat and light one's home, or 80%+ of your income went to pay your various taxes each year, or you needed the government's approval to wed, have children, work, and plain live, or your job became so complicated and non-deterministic you couldn't do anything constructive at all no matter how much effort you expended, or our forced, non-market-oriented monetary system collapses in hyperinflation or crushing deflation due to gross mismanagement (or eventual mathematical certainty), or it finally dawns upon a critical mass of the population that the media is completely useless, disinformative, and manipulative. Any of these things could collapse more cohesive societies than our own.

OROgoldfan - answers/comments#4765002/06/01; 23:19:47

*XS and D... and in the accumulation of corporate debt and equity in government hands.
>>> a source of malinvestment, consequent major boom and bust ??<<<
ORO: Result of gov action to undo effects of bust that is the result of the prior boom.

*XD and S...Another item of importance here is that much of the new money printed in Japan is locked in long term government run savings plans that can not be tapped easily.
>>> how locked? Is it just the interest rate drag? the saved money could be spent by the government?? Good manipulation though, entice the people to save with high interest rate government bonds, pay them interest out of their own taxes.... another locus of malinvestment??<<<
ORO: Funds are in Postal Savings etc. that have set maturities. Penalties on early withdrawal prevent it from happening. You are right that it was a manipulation and that gov. had spent the funds and has committed to taxing (or printing) it back to the bond holders. Definitely a locus of malinvestment.

*D...The new money entering savings had gone to more interesting prospects outside Japan, in turn contributing to the boom (and bust) in SE Asia, and later to the US boom (and ongoing early stage bust).
>>>who decided on these investments, the people or the government? I assume that in a pure gold money regime, people would get the info they needed from a trusted source, to make their own decisons. They might turn out to be bad investments, but couldn't be malinvestments, which can only occur in fiat regimes subject to government influence.<<<
ORO: They trusted banks and investment houses. Those, however, were taking cues from a consensus of a team of gov. and bankers (i.e. cartel, and a crowded trade). In a gold money regime it would be unlikely that such a situation would have formed, though Japanese tend to form crowded trades more extreme and broader because of the traditional tendency to seek consensus.

XD...The make work projects and the export drive made Japanese save rather than spend because they were priced out of the market for current products, and have to worry about the time when the government debt would be repaid
>>>I don't get how the people would worry about the future taxes needed to pay government debt, but maybe I misunderstand this point. Anyway, in a future without government intervention, the problem disappears. People can save or spend as they wish.<<<
ORO: The main point is that the people were priced out of the market by competition for products from gov. spending, and gov. subsidized or supported export programs that kept prices high – too high for people to buy the stuff. As the 1999 sales tax imposed on them demonstrates, the people were correct in their expectation of future high taxes to cover the governments’ debt expansion at the time.
The future without gov intervention needs to come from a present and past where gov. intervened. You need to get there from here. Not easy.

*XD...Over the next few years, Japan will have eliminated its trade surplus and started spending its dollar (and Euro)income from assets to provide for their older retirees' high intensity care days,
>>>who says this stuff will have any purchasing power when its needed?<<<
ORO: "Exactically" said the caterpillar puffing on his houka.
It retains purchasing power because it is not being spent. When it is spent, the market will see it as the unwinding of a crowded trade and discount it just before it starts.

tgTHE FED STARTS TO USE UP ITS BULLETS: #4765102/06/01; 23:51:00

http://www.prudentbear.com/international.htm

part of the above link

"The Japan scenario must surely be the nightmare scenario that secretly exorcises the Fed: a situation in which the saturation dynamics in high tech industries have become so deeply entrenched that the companies themselves prove impervious to improvement despite "the rapid and forceful response of monetary policy". Unlike the events of the 1930s, this is not lost in the sands of time, but very much a comparatively recent event well within the experience and recollection of a number of investment professionals. Yet curiously, no Wall Street strategist has yet drawn the ominous linkage. We, on the other hand, believe that the comparison is highly germane. Despite repeated cuts in interest rates, Japan's economy has proved curiously unresponsive even 10 years after the puncturing of its bubble. Whenever Japan is discussed it is always in the context of ineffective policy response after the fact: we get constant carping about the nation's "clueless", incompetent bureaucrats, those same bureaucrats who were once venerated for their long-term insights and planning throughout the post war period. We suspect a similar downgrade in the respective historic reputations of Messrs. Greenspan, Rubin and Summers lurks at some point in the future."

Black BladeCATALYTIC GOLD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE #4765202/07/01; 00:07:35

http://www.acitravel.co.za/main.asp?conf_id=2

GOLD, that most noble of all metals, is not traditionally renowned for having catalytic properties. That it has such properties at all is still news to many. However, what is really interesting is not that gold can be merely prepared in catalytically-active forms, but that such materials have unique and commercially attractive properties. In some instances catalytic gold seems to offer activity at unprecedented low temperatures, in others it offers the promise of greater selectivity. This is still a rather young topic - up until now many of the researchers and developers in this area did not even know about each other. The Catalytic Gold conference will, for the first time, bring together the worlds leading researchers in the field. The conference is more than just an academic get-together however - it is expected that it will also be attended by top delegates from the laboratories of many of the worlds larger chemical industries who, perhaps, may not say much but who are expected to listen carefully as the utility of these new materials unfolds. So the conference offers delegates a very effective way to work themselves into this new field technically and perhaps gain some useful strategic insights as well.

The excellent line-up of speakers, from leading institutions around the world, will be addressing topics from gold in the synthesis of fine chemicals, gold chemistry, catalytic gold in industrial processes, to the potential uses of gold in environmental remediation. These sessions, combined with an opportunity to meet with the speakers and other participants during our social programme, will ensure that you will return from Cape Town with new insights, new ideas, and new horizons. Pre and post conference tours as well as two post conference technical tour are available. A comprehensive accompanying persons programme is also available.

TECHNICAL COMMITTEE
G. Bond - Chairman (UK), M. Haruta (Japan), H. Kung (USA), D. Andreeva (Bulgaria), D.T. Thompson (UK), C. Corti (UK), P. Radcliffe (RSA), A. Vosloo (RSA), M.Cortie (RSA), J. Fletcher (RSA), R. Paul (RSA), S. Rule (RSA), A. Ramsey (RSA)

HOST INSTITUTES
World Gold Council, AngloGold, Catalysis Society of South Africa, Mintek.



Black Blade: Notice that Anglo is a sponsor of the Catalytic Gold Conference. It would be "interesting" if this technology became popular causing the POG to rise dramatically and therefore cause margin calls on Anglos hedge positions. Shades of Ashanti and Cambior. Just an "interesting" thought.

Black BladeS Africa's Harmony Secures Funding For Mine Acquisitions#4765302/07/01; 00:14:33

CAPE TOWN (Dow Jones)--South Africa's Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HGMCY) said Tuesday that it has secured the funding for the acquisition of AngloGold Ltd.'s (AU) Elandsrand and Deelkraal mines, and Australia's New Hampton Gold Fields Ltd. As part of the deal Harmony has arranged gold price protection for the first year of the financing commitments through the purchase of 1.0 million ounces of put options at a strike price of around ZAR64,000 ($1=ZAR7.8000) per kilogram, the company said a statement. It said this arrangement would protect Harmony from potential adverse movements in the gold price, whilst allowing the company to fully participate in any increase in the gold price.

Harmony is paying ZAR1.0 billion for Elandsrand and Deelkraal and has offered New Hampton shareholders 26.5 cents which gives the New Hampton deal a transaction value of A$54 million. The banks providing the finance include South Africa's ABSA Bank Ltd. and BOE Securities, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Citibank NA and J.P. Morgan PLC. J.P. Morgan is acting as international coordinator and book manager, while ABSA Bank Ltd. is acting as South African coordinator and book runner, Harmony said. Around 1050 GMT Harmony was trading 30 cents higher, or 0.9%, at ZAR35.50 on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa.


Black Blade: JP Morgan, I thought I smelled a rat! However, the picture isn't as bad as first thought as Harmony's hedges are only put options as opposed to forward sales favored by Hedge-Fund miners Anglo and Barrick.

Black BladeStranded Alaska natural gas waits for buyers#476542/7/2001; 0:55:37

By Yereth Rosen


ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Call it the Alaska pipe dream.

For years, government and business leaders have yearned for a pipeline to ship the North Slope's long-neglected natural gas to markets. It would be the biggest private project in Alaska since the trans-Alaska oil pipeline was built in the 1970s, creating thousands of construction jobs. It would also fatten Alaska's petroleum-based state treasury, providing an estimated $200 million to $400 million in steady annual income, according to the state Department of Revenue. And it would encourage other economic development by providing energy to isolated communities. Now, with prices spiraling upward, experts predicting future demand growth and supply shortages and pipeline technology improving, the long-discussed gas commercialization project finally appears on the verge of reality, Alaska leaders say. "After two decades of false starts and broken dreams, the economic and political stars are finally aligned in our favor. Natural gas is the fuel of the 21st century," Gov. Tony Knowles said in his state-of-the state address last month. The prospects seem serious enough that state economist Neal Fried in January received his first out-of-state job inquiry about it, from a Nebraska man seeking a welding position. Fried, a college student in Fairbanks during the 1970s oil-pipeline boom, said the gas talk reminds him of the past. "There's some feelings of deja vu about it -- not as strong, but they're there." Some say Alaska's next boom is inevitable because Prudhoe Bay and adjacent oil fields are swimming in natural gas. Proven reserves total 25 trillion cubic feet at Prudhoe and another 10 trillion in other fields -- more than a fifth of known national stores. Additional gas at already developed North Slope oil properties is believed to be at least 70 trillion cubic feet. No one has yet committed to buy the gas, however. It remains stranded on the North Slope, where it is pumped up through the tundra as a byproduct of crude production. Each day oil producers bring up about 8 billion cubic feet of gas, about the same as the national consumption of Japan or Canada. And each day they use the world's largest gas processing plant to re-inject almost all of it back into the earth, where it builds reservoir pressure and aids in future oil recovery.

'MORE DIFFICULT TO SHOVE THAT GAS BACK'

Producers have a growing incentive to do something else with the gas as the oil fields age and gas-to-oil ratios rise, said Matt Berman, a University of Alaska Anchorage economist. "It's getting more difficult to shove that gas back in." The producers say they are serious about selling the gas and commercialization plans have taken on a new urgency. "If it didn't feel different I don't think that we'd be spending 75 million bucks and putting 90 people to work on the project," said David MacDowell, external communications manager for a gas work group set up by major North Slope oil producers. The producers -- BP, Phillips and Exxon Mobil -- consider a pipeline delivering to the Lower 48 states to be the best chance to sell North Slope gas. They have predicted that a pipeline could be delivering gas by 2007 and that a pipeline to bring gas from the distant North Slope would cost $10 billion. Their work group last month solicited bids to plan and design the pipeline system, considering alternative routes. "Our focus right now is creating the most economically viable, safest delivery system possible," MacDowell said. Knowles and other Alaska politicians have endorsed a 2,000-mile (3,240-km) gas pipeline that would run south from Prudhoe Bay to Fairbanks, then to Alberta along the route of the Alaska Highway. A similar project was planned and permitted in the 1970s but was set aside because of poor economics. Knowles last month introduced legislation to give tax incentives for such a pipeline and he has established a special multi-agency state office to provide what he called "one-stop permitting and right-of-way preparation." A competing project would run a pipeline east off the coast of the Beaufort Sea to the gas-rich Mackenzie River Delta in Canada's Northwest Territories, then south to Alberta. The so-called northern route would be shorter and possibly cheaper and has the blessing of the Northwest Territories government, which is seeking a way to market its own stranded Arctic gas. But it is opposed by Alaska and Yukon officials, whose lands would be bypassed, and environmentalists are leery of impacts offshore and on wild lands. "If a pipeline is going to happen it really should stay in an already existing corridor that's easily accessed and doesn't have the ice problem," said Debra Moore, Arctic coordinator for the Fairbanks-based Northern Alaska Environmental Center. Another project would run a pipeline parallel to the existing 800-mile (1,300-km) oil line to Valdez, then liquefy the natural gas for shipment by tanker vessel to Asia or the U.S. West Coast. Its chief promoter, Anchorage-based Yukon Pacific Corp., portrays it as the most beneficial to Alaskans.

'AL-CAN OF WORMS'

Yukon Pacific President Jeff Lowenfels dismissed Knowles' preferred route. "We call it the Al-Can of worms," he told state lawmakers, using the popular nickname for the Alaska Highway. Another project would employ new technology to convert natural gas to liquid synthetic crude, which could be shipped through the existing oil pipeline. But some say cheerful predictions of imminent gas commercialization are unwarranted. And consumer watchdogs are worried about state concessions being contemplated to encourage gas development. "We need to proceed very carefully to ensure that Alaskans truly benefit from their own resources. Alaskans cannot afford to be the victims of BP's or other oil companies' marketing manipulations," Jim Sykes of the Alaska Public Research Interest Group said after Knowles unveiled his legislation. Berman said recent gas price spikes may be making politicians too giddy about Alaska gas. "I would be very suspicious of anybody who thinks the current high prices are going to last," he said. There is a "virtually unlimited" amount of Middle Eastern natural gas, now being burned off, Berman said, adding it is only a matter of time before that gas is exported, in liquefied form, to the United States. "Alaska natural gas has to compete in terms of price with imported LNG, and it always has." The unfulfilled promise of North Slope gas is also noted by environmentalists, who argue it is absurd for the oil industry to push to exploit Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge when it already has access to such a huge gas resource. Former U.S. Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt, in a farewell address last month, cited the North Slope's gas when he criticized proponents of Arctic refuge oil drilling. "It seems to me that if those folks who are gearing up for this crusade and this fight are serious about something other than just an ideological assault on our environmental accomplishments," Babbitt said, "they might turn to the oil companies and say, 'Well, why don't you start with the 25 trillion cubic feet that you're sitting on?"'


Black Blade: NG is the fuel of the future as it meets the requirements outlined by the EPA's Clean Air Act. Canada is opposed to the project for no other reason than it would compete with their NG production in the NW territories. The environmentalists are just too powerful with their legions of lobbyists This NG could help mitigate the energy crisis a bit. However, the use of coal, oil and nuclear power would be a source of "cheap energy." It is too late to stop the inevitable energy shortage that will ultimately undermine the economy. We have already seen a tremendous slowdown in the economy with earnings warnings galore and increasing numbers of lay-offs. The Wall Street pundits claim that even though jobs are lost, many more are created. True, but how many "Burger-Flippers" do you really need? All the while, these pundits continue to harp on how everyone should just jump in and "Buy the Dips" and we have bottomed. They have been saying this for several months even while the DOW dipped, and the NASDAQ cratered in a traditional Bear Market. While the politicians bicker over exploring for hydrocarbons in ANWR, Reregulation of utilities, and suspension of the Clean Air Act, the time of economic collapse draws near.

skiSpot Uranium Up Again#476552/7/2001; 1:16:21

http://uxc.com/top_review.html

Last week I posted that uranium spot prices move like no other commodity to my knowledge. They only go in ONE direction for a considerable period of time and then in the other direction. No up and down movement from week to week. They move like a supertanker on the high seas.

I also stated that the downward movement in uranium prices finally turned last week as it had gone up fifteen cents per pound to $7.25 after going down for a couple of years.

This trend has been further confirmed this week. The supertanker has even picked up speed. Spot price is up twenty-five cents this week to $7.50. Also confirming this move is the fact that Cameco made a new 52 week high today.

I do not expect to mention uranium again on this site as uranium is not a precious metal therefore the subject is somewhat a little off base (unless someone wants to know more). The main reason that I have mentioned it is that uranium is used to make about 20% of the world's electricity and thus is a factor in "The Big Picture".

And lastly, some (Doug Casey, Jim Dines and others) have said that the supply and demand imbalance is more extreme than in ANY OTHER COMMODITY at present.

Black BladeSpeculation on AngloGold's True Motives#476562/7/2001; 1:26:40

The AngloGold forward sales of 50% of their gold production is likely to put some pressure on gold prices. The question is does this 50% forward sales position of 3.5 million oz. Per year (17.5 million oz total) include their approximately 20% forward sold gold or is this in addition to the 20% forward sold gold? Could AngloGold be forward sold up to 70% of their next 5 years of production? Just about a week ago, they claimed that they saw upside potential in gold prices. Why the sudden change in sentiment? Unless they are building up a "War Chest" in order to make a run on smaller miners, possibly even unhedged miners such as Goldfields. Then what? Perhaps they intend to acquire unhedged miners and forward sell more gold. They also claim that they prefer to merge rather than acquire, however, their past performance where the truth is concerned makes one question the veracity of anything they say publicly.

- Black Blade

Black BladeJudge Orders Power Sales to California#476572/7/2001; 2:20:58

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010206/fy.html

By Michael Kahn
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - With the plug about to be pulled on federally-ordered electric supplies to power-starved California, a U.S. District judge on Tuesday ordered one major generator to keep pumping energy to the state's 34 million consumers. Three others agreed to keep the lights on until at least a Wednesday court hearing. Judge Frank Damrell issued a temporary restraining order requiring Reliant Energy Services Inc. (NYSE:REI) to continue selling electricity to the California Independent System Operator (ISO), which manages the state's power grid. The ISO had sought a federal court order earlier on Tuesday to require four independent merchant energy companies to keep selling electricity to the state even though California's two biggest utilities are nearly bankrupt and cannot afford to buy supplies. The judge's order, however, will apply only to Reliant as generators Williams Cos. (NYSE:WMB), AES (NYSE:AES) and Dynegy (NYSE:DYN) agreed to keep supplying electricity at least until another court hearing on Wednesday afternoon. The order also came hours before federal orders mandating continued energy sales to California expire at midnight Pacific time (3 A.M.Eastern).

Meanwhile, Gov. Gray Davis announced that the Department of Water Resources -- transformed by emergency orders into California's main agent for state power purchases -- had secured its first long term energy contracts. ``I am very satisfied that this first round of proposals has met our expectations,'' David Freeman, whom Davis named last week to head up the contract negotiations, said in a news release. ``These power purchases are a critical first step as we begin to build a balanced portfolio of contracts.'' The maneuvering in Sacramento came as California struggled through its 22nd consecutive day of critically short energy supplies. While the ISO said a repeat of last month's rolling blackouts was unlikely, power reserves remained frighteningly low at just 1.5 percent of peak demand -- or about one tenth the reserve cushion most grid operators like to maintain.

REGULATORS SEEK COURT HELP

California's energy crisis, created by surging demand, spiraling wholesale prices and fallout from the state's failed 1996 power deregulation plan, has pushed the state's two largest utilities to the brink of bankruptcy. Pacific Gas and Electric Co., the utility subsidiary of San Francisco-based PG&E Corp. (NYSE:PCG), and Southern California Edison, a unit of Rosemead, Calif.-based Edison International (NYSE:EIX), have racked up $12 billion in debt buying power at sky high spot market prices that, under the terms of deregulation, they cannot pass along to consumers. Their finances in tatters, both utilities have found themselves shunned by power suppliers who fear they will never be paid. With the prospect of more blackouts hitting the nation's richest and most populous state, the Clinton Administration last month ordered power suppliers to continue their sales to California -- an order which was reluctantly extended by the incoming Bush Administration. But that federal lifeline runs out at midnight on Tuesday and federal officials said there will be no further extension. A separate federal order requiring natural gas suppliers to keep doing business with California's utilities was also to expire at midnight. With the clock ticking, the ISO filed suit with U.S. District Court in Sacramento seeking to force the four power suppliers to honor ``participating generator agreements'' the ISO said committed them to maintaining power sales to California. While three of the generators voluntarily agreed to continue supplying power, all sided with Reliant's concerns about whether the ISO could pay for the power supplies. But Norma Formanek, an attorney for the ISO, said that without a court order to keep power flowing past midnight Tuesday, the energy crisis could spread. ``There could either be rotating blackouts or we could have something significantly less controlled and which could go beyond the borders of California,'' she told the court.

LONG-TERM CONTRACTS SIGNED

Davis, embroiled in the biggest economic and political crisis of his career, announced on Tuesday that efforts to stabilize the energy supply moved forward as the state inked its first long-term contracts for a total of about 5,000 megawatts for terms ranging from three to 10 years. One megawatt is the amount of electricity used at any given instant by about 1,000 homes. Under terms of a rescue package pushed through the state legislature last week, the Department of Water Resources will take up the role of energy buyer for California -- which, in turn, will issue up to $10 billion in bonds to cover the costs of the power purchases. Long-term contracts, which usually carry prices far lower than those found on the volatile spot market, are a key component of that plan, and California last month held its first ever auction to solicit bids. David Freeman, Davis' point man for the power purchases, said Tuesday that the state had agreed ``basic commercial terms of price, quantity and term for power contracts'', with initial deliveries of about 500 megawatts and subsequent contracts building to approximately 5,000 megawatts over the next couple of years. ``The deals we have completed are competitive,'' Freeman said. ``It is critical that the state build its portfolio incrementally.'' Davis, in moves over the past several days, has already seized long term contracts held by PG&E and Southern California Edison before they could be put up for sale to benefit the utilities' creditors -- securing a total of some 1,425 megawatts in continued energy supplies at relatively low, long-term prices.


Black Blade: None of these measures addresses the fundamental problems inherent with Kalifornia's so-called deregulation. There still aren't enough energy generating facilities and power is purchased from out of state. They are far from out of the woods on this issue. They merely are drawing on power from facilities out of state that in turn will put pressure on the other states should there be a need for power. This scenario will likely occur, as low water levels on the Columbia River hydroelectric system will be stressed. Low snow pack in the Sierras will also pressure Kalifornia's own hydroelectric facilities. Summer is usually the state's highest energy consumption period. Since Kalifornia is the world's sixth largest economy, this has some serious implications for the US economy as a whole. If they come to rely on judges’ injunction orders in order to acquire energy, this will only contribute to the spread of the energy crisis to the western states region (the western energy grid). Part of the problem facing the Grasshoppers is that they did not completely deregulate and allow the Utes to acquire long-term contracts longer than 3 months. Now Kommissar Davis is doing exactly what he and his fellow Grasshoppers denied to the Utes. watch for this to continue as it plays out in the economic down-turn. They are in for some "Interesting Times." "And they danced, sang, and played all summer long…"

Black BladeGOP Senators To Pitch Energy Bill #476582/7/2001; 2:35:42

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20010206/pl/energy_congress_1.html

By H. JOSEF HEBERT, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - Republican energy legislation to be introduced next week will focus on boosting clean coal technology, revitalizing the nuclear industry and finding new sources of oil and natural gas including drilling in an Arctic wildlife refuge, according to a draft of the bill. Sen. Frank Murkowski , R-Alaska, chairman of the committee that will take up the legislation, discussed the measure during an hour-long meeting Tuesday with Vice President Dick Cheney , who heads a presidential task force on energy. Murkowski said the meeting ``revolved around the realization that we have an energy crisis in this country'' and that ways must be found to produce more energy and rely less on oil imports. The legislation will outline a goal of cutting foreign oil imports from the current 56 percent to 50 percent by 2010, said Murkowski. It would require an annual report to Congress on progress toward meeting the goal. The Republican bill, parts of which will be met with stiff resistance from Democrats, is likely to be merged with a broad energy plan being developed at the White House. Cheney told senators that plan is expected to be completed in 45 to 60 days. But it is clear congressional Republicans and the White House are moving along parallel lines on the energy package, its importance magnified in recent weeks by the electricity supply problems in California and soaring natural gas prices nationwide. While the GOP legislation will include some measures aimed at boosting renewable energy sources and energy conservation its focus will be on boosting energy production.

``It's a blank check to the oil, gas and nuclear industry,'' said Erich Pica, an economic policy analyst for Friends of the Earth. Among the bill's most controversial provisions will be opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas development. Most Democrats and a handful of moderate Republicans oppose drilling in the Alaska refuge which is viewed by environmentalists as a national treasure needing protection. President Bush has repeatedly called for developing the reserve's oil and gas resources, maintaining it can be done while protecting the environment. While some senators contend it could jeopardize the energy package's approval, Murkowski said that both Bush and Cheney are convinced the refuge drilling provision should be in the bill.

Despite the recent turmoil in the California electricity markets, the legislation does not attempt to address the broad question of electricity reliability, nor the national question of electricity deregulation. The draft legislation, however, calls for streamlining siting requirements on electric power plants, electricity transmission lines and natural gas pipelines. It also proposes:

-A string of tax incentives aimed at promoting clean coal technology and continued reliance of coal, which currently produces more than half of the nation's electricity.
-Tax breaks for oil and gas development, including for marginal producers and so-called ``stripper wells.''
-A reduction in royalty payments for deep-water oil and gas developments.
-New incentives, including federal payments, for increased power production from nuclear plants and to help design and develop a next-generation nuclear power plant.

As Bush proposed during his campaign, the legislation would require that some of the proceeds from oil and gas leases in the Arctic refuge be used for research and promotion of renewable energy sources. It also proposes a revival of tax credits to homeowners who use solar, wind or other renewable energy; ratchets up the fuel efficiency requirements for federal vehicle fleets and provides general tax credits for hybrid gas-electric motor vehicles.


Black Blade: Another take on a revitalized "Energy policy." Still, it could be a tough sell, as environmentalists gather their legions of lobbyists and lawyers to stop or slow down implementation. There is a severe energy crisis coming and it's in the cards. There is no stopping it now. The energy crisis will spur many to work toward a solution. If you have Y2K type supplies, then you're in good shape. Next, protect your portfolios with diversification into PM's, pay off debt where-ever possible, and hang on. In might appear as a slow-burn at first (maybe a year or two), and then it will likely hit hard with some economic hardships to follow. The "Bull Market" was fueled with "cheap energy", and that energy isn't going to be so cheap anymore.

Randy (@ The Tower)High-grading some gold philosophies from yesterday's forum#476592/7/2001; 2:52:46

A good way to start the day?

Thanks beesting and slingshot for tolerating my use of excerpts upon your words. Let's get to it...

beesting (02/06/01; 14:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 47612)
The Image of Lady Justice...Gold as an investment v s Gold as a storage of wealth!
...I recieved the mental image of Lady Justice??....The blindfolded figure of a maiden trying to balance two Golden plates with known evidence to reach a conclusion.

...using the current low price of Gold anyone that had invested in Gold in U.S. dollars since it's high of $880 per ounce would have lost dollars. A poor investment to be sure....... But, my friend, did we close the case with all the evidence presented, or just part of the evidence?

Now, it's my understanding as a long time investor the phrase; "Timing is Everything" was not given it's proper weight measure in [that] scenario...

...lets see what would have happened in 1973 if I had taken my $20,000 and invested in physical Gold. Gold was $35 per ounce. If I divide $20,000 by 35 I come up with about 571 ounces excluding premiums. 571 times $265 per ounce Gold equals $151,315....A pretty good investment..

Now what if I had sold my 570 ounces of Gold when Gold was $850 per ounce, that equals...$484,500...I would say an exceptional investment... and that was over 20 years ago.

I'm only trying to prove the point timing is everything when it comes to investing.

Now, lets say a person is buying Gold for a different reason. ... and IMHO this is the reason USAGOLD puts up with our silly nonsense...That reason is "Wealth Preservation"!

Many people spend all their income on living expenses?

Now, say you would like to be different and have something to show besides your home and investments as you get older. Isn't untaxed (by the year) Gold the perfect vehicle for that? If a person sets aside say 10% of their monthly budget for...other use...and splits "other use" into 50% investing and 50% wealth preservation.... Does that seem like a good long term plan for anybody?

I think we should put up another scale of Lady Justice and see how other other wealth preservation vehicles compare to GOLD! I think not only Goldhearts, but almost anyone that weighs all the facts would agree, Gold has historically been and still is the best vehicle for long term preservation of wealth!...Thanks for Reading...beesting.

- - - - - - A N D - - - - - - - - - - - -

slingshot (02/06/01; 18:35:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 47632)
Confidence, Getting The GOLD.
The past several weeks I have read quite a few postings that sometimes I became slightly confused. Not to worry, adhering to my plan of acquisition of Gold keeps me from falling off the trail.

Standing at the bottom of the ladder, looking up at those who have played the gold game for sometime, I can't help but wonder how many have passed up this forum because of the huge amount of information that must be absorbed to understand a small amount of the fundamentals of the market. Thus they have missed the chance of climbing the ladder to wealth. .... Now that Gold is at a bargain price I have tried to talk to a couple of friends and the subject about gold was a flop! They must be in debt up to their ears. Now to the point of my post. I have confidence that I am making a great investment. Gold is at or near the low in [22] years. If it goes lower I just buy more with my allotment.
- - - - - - -

Randy's comment: There are certain times to be found in economic history where gold offers more than preservation of wealth. We seem to be on the threshold of one of those times where gold's price is very attractive in the light of "troubling" monetary developments/conditions, setting the stage for potential real gains in purchasing power per ounce (measured against other goods and services not limited to simple currency gains.)

Have YOU yet established a personal strategy to regularly "get you some" in the course of these interesting times? Call Centennial today. That's what they're there for, it's all they do, and they're exceptionally good at it too.

PandagoldGOLD#476602/7/2001; 3:34:24

The chairman of Austrralia's largest gold mine - Normandy:-

" In our Annual Report, I made reference to accelerating 'new economy' uses in leading-edge medicine, science and technology. These uses are less well known
and as a consequence we have received requests for further information.

These high-tech applications are possible because gold offers a unique combination of properties. It is non-toxic and biologically benign, and one of the most efficient conductors of electricity. It is virtually indestructible, soft and easy to work, allowing it be drawn out into microscopic strands, whilst its density allows molecular-size particles to be seen under electron microscopes.

Whilst gold is critical to the operation of all modern electronics and telecommunications systems, its unique properties are being increasingly applied to many other areas of science and technology:

In medicine, coronary stents (tiny scaffolds used to prop open blood vessels once cleared during balloon angioplasty procedures) have been gold-coated to improve their visibility during surgery, and gold vapour lasers have been developed to selectively destroy cancerous cells without harming adjoining healthy cells. - Lightweight lasers using gold-plated mirrors have been developed for military use, enabling battlefield wounds to be sealed in the field. -

Scientists are attaching gold 'tags,' ranging in size down to 4 atoms, to proteins and other molecules, to learn how drugs, bacteria and viruses travel through the human body. - In environmental and forensic evaluation, an extremely sensitive laser-based detection system has been developed using gold to provide a signal more than a million times stronger than other metals for chemical investigation of minute amounts of materials.

There are also many less exotic but equally important uses, with car air bag deployment systems just one example. In the United States, dual air bags are now mandatory. Air bags, to be life-saving, must work flawlessly for the 15-year life of the car. Only gold-plated electrical contacts can be relied upon for resistance to corrosion in a hot and dirty environment which is subject to vibration.

He went to say

Every time another gold mine closes, and there have been four significant
closures in the past few months, and every time an exploration budget is
reduced or a team disbanded, we are one day closer to an upturn in
the gold price and a return to positive investment sentiment.
Robert J Champion de Crespigny Chairman and Chief Executive

PandagoldGOLD#476612/7/2001; 3:34:51

The chairman of Austrralia's largest gold mine - Normandy:-

" In our Annual Report, I made reference to accelerating 'new economy' uses in leading-edge medicine, science and technology. These uses are less well known
and as a consequence we have received requests for further information.

These high-tech applications are possible because gold offers a unique combination of properties. It is non-toxic and biologically benign, and one of the most efficient conductors of electricity. It is virtually indestructible, soft and easy to work, allowing it be drawn out into microscopic strands, whilst its density allows molecular-size particles to be seen under electron microscopes.

Whilst gold is critical to the operation of all modern electronics and telecommunications systems, its unique properties are being increasingly applied to many other areas of science and technology:

In medicine, coronary stents (tiny scaffolds used to prop open blood vessels once cleared during balloon angioplasty procedures) have been gold-coated to improve their visibility during surgery, and gold vapour lasers have been developed to selectively destroy cancerous cells without harming adjoining healthy cells. - Lightweight lasers using gold-plated mirrors have been developed for military use, enabling battlefield wounds to be sealed in the field. -

Scientists are attaching gold 'tags,' ranging in size down to 4 atoms, to proteins and other molecules, to learn how drugs, bacteria and viruses travel through the human body. - In environmental and forensic evaluation, an extremely sensitive laser-based detection system has been developed using gold to provide a signal more than a million times stronger than other metals for chemical investigation of minute amounts of materials.

There are also many less exotic but equally important uses, with car air bag deployment systems just one example. In the United States, dual air bags are now mandatory. Air bags, to be life-saving, must work flawlessly for the 15-year life of the car. Only gold-plated electrical contacts can be relied upon for resistance to corrosion in a hot and dirty environment which is subject to vibration.

He went to say

Every time another gold mine closes, and there have been four significant
closures in the past few months, and every time an exploration budget is
reduced or a team disbanded, we are one day closer to an upturn in
the gold price and a return to positive investment sentiment.
Robert J Champion de Crespigny Chairman and Chief Executive

TopazHoratio: Lafisrap#476622/7/2001; 3:56:52

The Gold conundrum is definitely most confusing.
Barbaric relic or Wealth of ages, a black or white question - no half measures here eh?
Maybe, if we all share our basic reasons for gravitating to Gold together, (as Sir beesting has so ably demonstrated) we may ALL feel on more solid ground in these harrowing times.
My interest in PM's began in the mid 60's as a Teenager. As such coins were a much larger part of the "in-hand" currency and I remember feeling absolutely ripped off when our Silver coins were fazed out in preference for the junk of today.
The intervening 30 odd years found me living from hand-to-mouth, raising 3 kids, paying off a house etc and only in the mid 90's, on news that Australia had sold/leased a large chunk of their (OUR) Gold was my interest re-kindled.
Now Gold is Oz's THIRD LARGEST export earner, why - WHY would the Reserve Bank of Oz so blatantly act against it's own countries interests? (RBA was (one of) the first CB's to dishoard)
As an unelected body the RBA is akin to your FED - ie: our democratically elected officials have NOUGHT to do with RBA decision making, so they act idependantly of Gov't. D-uh!
At roughly the same time, as if by magic, the bulk of Oz Miners began forward selling Au. Throw into the mix the Seth Effrican "problem",the Gulf War, Anothers early efforts and the continually informative commentary found here - and one can plausably come to the following conclusion:-
The 80's run-up in POG threatened the very foundations of Global (fiat) finances as it became apparent certain parties were prepared to pay ANY price for Gold.
Enter Petrogold - as time passed, the security of large hoards of Bullion became suspect and a goodly amount of private gold was placed in secure storage (BB's) and paperised in the process - covered by CB sales/leases. (POG began it's steady decline)
These positions were feasable only if the (increased) Global production of Bullion outpaced demand and it DIDN'T!
Enter Miner Fwd's - so the miners got dragged into the act to cover (in Bullion) the defecit in production as it became apparent someone's tail(s) was/were/are exposed BIGTIME.
Any threat to the flow of Bullion (a-la the S/African situation) was quickly settled or/and (as Horatio pointed out) sold into.
Here and Now - POG $263, another rash of forward sales, Petrogold in accumulatiion mode, The Mid-East walking on eggshells "again", Enter the Dragon, say goodnight Buckaroo!......What goes around...etc!
As far as Another's thoughts go (oil-n-all) I feel his message is still as good as gold, Only when he (she) was cajoled into a western minded discussion did he offer narrow focused timelines pertaining to the future of POG etc. "time will prove all things" if I recall correctly.
Thanks for reading.

Topazski#476632/7/2001; 4:23:57

Just in case anyone else doesn't mention it (I'm off to bed) your commentary here is most welcome.
Just put GOLD in the posts now-n-then! ;-)

CanuckSecret Gold Treaty#476642/7/2001; 4:29:04

http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/main_page.htm

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I missed the boat on the discussions about David Guyatt's and of his book (above link).

I vaguely recall the discussions here on USAGOLD but I seem to remember Guyatt's theory regarding the cabal's plot to secure 'all' the gold.

Does anyone have any thoughts, quotes or perceptions before I purchase the book.

TIA,

Canuck.

KnallgoldHarmony#476652/7/2001; 4:38:17

"..As part of the deal Harmony has arranged gold price protection for the first year of the financing commitments through the purchase of 1.0 million ounces of put options at a strike price of around ZAR64,000 ($1=ZAR7.8000) per kilogram, the company said a statement. It said this arrangement would protect Harmony from potential adverse movements in the gold price, whilst allowing the company to fully participate in any increase in the gold price..."

Fact is,HGMCY started to hedge.
Fact is,Harmony speculates now in the paper Gold market.
Fact is,you can lose your money with puts.Remember NEM in 99,bought puts before the big runup in the POG,"for protection".
NEM posted a loss later,reason:
"hedge related", they stated.

This speculation is just to kiss the cabals butt,not for the benefit of the mine.

Back to Harmony: some unnnamed analysts were running around the last weeks trumpeting "Harmony starts to hedge,forward sales etc."

Swanepoel denied that in a statement,he never would hedge,even if he had to abandon the deal.Buy only what you can afford.Haha.Why did he tell this?

Salami tactic?
Now we see the details "ah,just puts.only a year.not as bad as expected (forwards) etc"
But what comes next?As the shareholders have been prepared now?Someone wrote on GE how friendly AngloGold's management has been to their shareholders the last weeks.Sugarbread to lull short-before-exploding investors?

If the POG goes to zero as FOA said,then the puts were probably a good deal.

Another thought:is this ANGLOgold selling related to BOE stopping sales soon?

PandagoldCanuck#476662/7/2001; 4:48:07

Have not read this book, but next time I am in the bookshop, I will give it a quick scan - enough to tell me whether it is a 'genuine' revelation, or one that purports to be but is merely a smoke screen -which, regretably, most of them are - though they look, and are hyped as being expose
Canuck@ Belgian#476672/7/2001; 5:06:38

My previous post was 'spawned' from your 47617 yesterday.

Yes, things are not as they seem, we ARE missing something fundamentally wrong. With all of the 'negative' events that have passed us by in the last year I find it bizarre that gold has actually dropped?

IMHO, I find it weird that that gold/oil ratio, normally around 16/17 seems to be slipping away. Oil is a massive vehicle, not easily 'managed' and an argument exists that rising oil is a function of an 'overvalued' dollar (in the eyes of oil producers) and changes in 'swing share'. Gold, on the other hand, is a small, easily 'managed' commodity.

We can speculate on the need to have gold 'managed' but I feel that 'how' that is being accomplished is more relevant.
You have hit the nail on the head with your comment regarding WHO 'is buying'. The movement of gold, has become MORE secretive and LESS transparent in the last couple years. I have speculated before that the massive, (and it is really quite substantial) dishoarding of offical gold may be simply a scumbag ploy to publicly announce sales of CB gold only to have secret, ultra-secret purchases by other CB's. A colluded, pirated merry-go-round.

CB's were holders of some 70% of above ground only a generation ago. That number has fallen dramatically in the last few years, thus, we can debate with each other for an eternity but we cannot argue with arithmetic, SOMEONE is sitting on a huge pile. In another convoluted theory, the theory of power shifting from west to east perhaps China, S.A.?, M.E.?, is gobbling the gold, setting up the 'sting' to finally drive the stake into the 'western' hearts.

The key is to locate the 'purchasers'; I agree wholeheartedly with your post, we are banging our heads on the wrong tree.

If you think how you have thought, you will get what you have got.

Canuck.

Canuck@ Panda#476682/7/2001; 5:09:17

Thank you.

As a 'heads-up' there have been many a heated discussion on this forum in regards to Guyatt's book.

Looking forward to your reply.

Canuck

Black BladeGoldfields Takeover?#476692/7/2001; 5:43:11

http://www.businessreport.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20010206181006346C432903&set_id=60

Analysts seem to agree that Hedge-Fund AngloGold and possibly Barrick are ready to make hostile takeover bid for Goldfields. Looks like the sharks are circling. Not a good sign.

- Black Blade

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker Tapeslingshot, post #47632, Putting Old Pennies to Work#476702/7/2001; 6:17:51

This post being a purely hypothetical endeavor on my part:

Your post is reminescent of the $40/ounce silver days. A while back I did the same math (perhaps not correctly?) on the copper content of the pre 1982 pennies. At that time scrap copper/brass was being "purchased" at 73 cents per pound. My calculations yeilded that the breakeven point for the copper content of such pennies would be at $1.50 to 1.60 per pound. Also, even that penny can earn interest! (I am embarrassed to even admit that!)

All pennies can be useful (in a pinch) in the melt when casting brass. The post 1981 pennies could be used to supply zinc to a brass melt in a pinch.

Scrap copper in quantity can be had these days if you watch for it, in ways that will save your back! I too have a difficult time walking by even a penny on the ground. Somewhere deep inside the brain it must still register as a piece of chewing gum, 1/5 a pack of baseball cards, or 1/10 of a soda! And there is still that "interest" thing!

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeALL.........Scrap GOLD from?????#476712/7/2001; 6:39:35

Someone posted a week or so back about the gold content in old junk computers. However the specifics were lacking (i.e. which components contained the gold). I hope you are still out there and can elaborate!

Is there a source that anyone can suggest for learning the industrial applications of gold, from the scrap gold standpoint? With it being so "cheap", now would be the time to round it up.

Imagine.....a SLATT faced double eagle.....guaranteed to go for a hefty premium over POG! USAGOLD, you will have first crack at them!

KnallgoldProof of a theory#476722/7/2001; 6:49:49

Selling paper (Anglo's forwards),buying physical (in the ground,from Goldfields).Sounds familiar,eh???
JourneymanCNBC talks gold @ALL#476732/7/2001; 7:20:50

Michelle Caruso Cabrara did spot on gold. Nailed the African miners hedging news, and less rigorous, the "India to buy less gold" angle. ~8:58AM

They've been covering gold sporadically lately. Today it seems to me, they went into a little more detail. And of course both stories were negative for POG.

Regards,
j.

JourneymanOne more entry @Randy, ALL#476742/7/2001; 7:39:30

My wife found out about the "derogatory nick-name for gold" contest and came up with one herself.

She asked me if I'd enter it for her.

So here it is: pulp fiction

Regards,
journeyman

P.S. I have a file with all the entries. I don't quite know whtat to do with it. We could all vote, but the votes might clutter up the table round. Perhaps Randy might have some suggestions. I don't want to judge myself - - - there are so many good ones - - -

JourneymanQuestion of The Day @ALL:#476752/7/2001; 7:53:27

Why shouldn't CBs sell their gold?

For any who care to indulge:

From their own perspective, what is perhaps the main though often forgotten reason central bankers shouldn't sell their gold?

If I remember correctly, one or two posters here have already answered this question - - - and I suspect many more know.

Clearly the answer I'm looking for isn't, "Because it will lower the price of gold."

Regards,
journeyman

JMBGoldman Sachs#476762/7/2001; 8:19:29

Our new found friends were hit with 8 of the 39 Gold contracts issued today on the Comex.

All: How many Feb Gold contracts are still open on the Comex. TIA

Old YellerCalifornia:do you read me,come in California#476772/7/2001; 8:26:44

Looks like Paul O'Neill may be our type of guy after all.

Quote from Feb.8 interview;

"I really don't understand why someone would take billions of dollars and give it to people who willfully created their own economic mess."

This refers to the Russian "problem" so deftly handled by Clinton's boys and the IMF;but tell me,is there really all that much difference?

JMBOld Yeller#476782/7/2001; 8:35:44

California here Old Yeller...we can hear ya 5x5 (or is it 4x4) loud 'n clear. The lights are still on and the coffee is almost ready and the tv is loo........
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeJourneyman, Why CBs should not sell gold#4767902/07/01; 09:43:01

I'll take a stab at it. Is it because the CBs have created far more paper gold than exists physical? When the house of cards falls, the physical gold in hand will skyrocket in terms of fiat currency?

Or is it the "gold is power" argument Pandagold is so fond of?

SHIFTYJourneyman #4768002/07/01; 10:11:33

Question of The Day

credibility / credit ability

?????

$hifty

SHIFTYShots fired at White House#4768102/07/01; 10:19:05

Shots fired at White House
Suspect Dead
Prez A - OK

PandagoldCollectables#4768202/07/01; 10:31:42

Is this a novel way Uncle Sam has come up with to get the Americans to save - they could produce another new coin every so often - two dollar, five dollar - how about a three dollar, now that really would be collectable?

Coin operation: Mint sees gold in Safeway Inc.
The Wall Street Journal - US Abstracts, Feb 7, 2001


The U.S. Mint is working frantically to increase the circulation of the 700m $1 coins it minted last year, almost 600m of which are being hoarded by collectors. To combat low circulation, the Mint has commissioned supermarket chain Safeway Inc. to distribute 1.6m of the gold coins to its customers as change. Although the number of coins to be released through the 1,500-store network seems comparatively slight, the Mint is betting that customers have hoarded all the coins they want ensuring that circulation will increase dramatically once the currency is made visible at one of the nation's largest food and drug retailers.

Abstracted from: The Wall St Journal

Tree in the ForestJMB#4768302/07/01; 11:05:54

Hi JMB. Comex gold:

Open interest (# of 100 oz. contracts)
Feb 422
Apr 90,734
June 17,296

Warehouse stocks (in oz.)
Eligible 91,475
Registered 1,683,855
Total 1,775,330

So about 10.8 million oz. saught, only 1.8 million oz. available. What does this say about what might happen at the end of April? What we need now is stoppers. Sorry...I can't get myself to cheer for Goldman Sachs!

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, "Collector hoarding" of new "gold" dollar #4768402/07/01; 11:06:13

What a miserable bunch of BS! The truth about that coin was not told. First off it is a "gold tone" coin. It is also too close to the size of the quarter, something the mint still didn't get right after the Susan B. Anthony fiasco. Using a dollar coin for cash registers and the older vending machines hasn't sold the business community on this coin either. The lessons not learned by the mint still continue with the forcing down our throats of yet another coin steeped in political correctness. The Anthony dollar was an attempt at mollifying the pro Equal Rights Amendment crowd in the late '70s. The current Sacagewea(sp?) dollar is another overt attempt at political correctness.

The coin is not popular with coin collectors. IMHO it is a ugly coin and the concept of a gold tone coin is insulting if not infuriating! Anyone can get as many as they want from any bank, just request it, since the banks will not order them as they are not at all in demand for circulation. The lie of the collector hoarding of this coin is too transparent.

This type of pandering is best left to the USPS! If our coinage is further sullied in the future by the issuance of a Bill & Hill, I'll be one of the first in line to get that coin in its rightful place.....on the tracks of the next approaching locomotive!

OverHerdSLaTT#4768502/07/01; 11:36:35

Why is it always attack, attack, attack. Is it possible to disagree politely?
As I read the post it was the WSJ that called the coins golden.
Back to lurking
Joe

IronHeadTopaz - Ozzy Eco Sentiment? RE:your #47662#4768602/07/01; 11:56:17

Goodday Sir Topaz - It would be of interest to know the general Aussie's sentiment towards the ecological effect of gold mining. With an ever increasing closure of mines, both silver and gold, the availability of said materials are certainly not going to be "growing" to meet continuing demand. As Sir Pandagold mentioned in his #47661 post regarding Normandy mines, four additional Aussie mines have been recently been closed, that depending upon public sentiment might not be re-opened?

The question of ecological impact and the psychology of the general populace has been extremely germane to the mining industry in my direct neck of the woods, with the proposed Chesaw mine in North Central Washington a good example of the environmental lobby against mining and the subsequent impact to Battle Mountain. The silver mines shut down in nearby Idaho also will have a possible uphill battle from the environmental front before coming back on line.

I am not in the mining industry, but think it safe to say that a mine is not simply re-opened or re-funded at a moments notice. With what I see as a concerted effort to monopolize the mining industry by certain Hannibals, first driving out the smaller less capable mines, then forcing into servitude other larger more profitable mines through the strong arm of "helpful" hedging, we arrive at the perfect one stop shop - "the company store".

With the media in one pocket and the environmental camp in the other, who's to say this is not a really grande scheme?

Would greatly appreciate any thougts you might have in this regard.

Salutations
IronHead

JMBTree In The Forest#4768702/07/01; 12:04:55

Those "nice" things I say about Goldman Sachs are said with tongue in cheek, I hope the bastards go broke!:)

Thanks for the O.I. info re the 422 Feb Gold contracts still open. If GS runs true to form they should stop about 100 to 150 of those 422....IF they do that, I have to assume that they have turned bullish on Gold. (Keep in mind that I have no idea what I'm doing, I'm just guessing).

The Dow and Duck are slipping, the Buck is vulnerable, Gold is trying to catch a bid, Murphy is in South Africa raising hell, a kid took a shot at the White House (maybe), they could turn off my lights any moment (If anyone thinks that business is going to expand in California they had better quit smoking pot because their judgement is impaired), as Randy has pointed out the Fed is pumping out "funny money" at an astounding rate, and now the evil Goldman Sachs Corp. is taking delivery of Gold. I think we're on the right track.

Say Tree, if you could keep the Feb. O.I. figure coming until it goes to zero, I'd sure appreciate it. Many thanks.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeOverHerd, I am sorry if my post was not clear to you#4768802/07/01; 12:31:17

I was not attacking Pandagold! I am certain he took no offense to my registering my opinion since he posted it on an open forum. My post was in response to the content of the article. If that was not clear to you then I apologize for the misunderstanding.

The article was in effect a press release for the US mint to try to move a whole lot of unwanted "gold tone" coins. If you live in the US, I would like to know if your experience with the new dollar coin has been different? It is a complete bust in commerce everywhere I have traveled.

beestingWhy shouldn't CB's sell their Gold?#4768902/07/01; 12:37:21

Hope This is not too Lengthy.

There are 2 ways to look at this question. One way is from a CB's perspective, the other way is from a striving to be Sovereign individuals perspective.Hopefully the one long answer will cover both.
I base my conclusions from the video "The Money Masters" a very educational film about the history of banking.

Short answer from Thomas Jefferson,"He who controls the money supply controls the people!"

The cartel of worldwide Central Banks has achieved almost total control of the worlds money. How did they do this?
By first gathering as much of the real money(Gold)into their vaults.How did they do that? Don't know about the rest of the world, but in the U.S. (a long time Gold producing nation) in 1933 President Roosevelt by "emergency executive order" made it illegal for the people to trade in Gold, and at the same time traded Federal Reserve issued notes(backed only by taxpayer collateral...future goods and services) to the banks nationwide in exchange for the Gold on hand.
((beesting comment, paper for Gold, What a Scam!))

Before this action and after the 1929 stock market crash the Federal Reserve(C.B.)took 3/4 of the "money" out of circulation.Where did the money go?((The video says much of it went overseas as the "Big Players" sold U.S. produced goods, for GOLD) How did they do this, and why did they do this?
The Why First:
It was a set up! If the Gold wasn't taken out of circulation people would have used what we call "The Barter System" among themselves and used Gold and silver in return for goods and services(without depending on Gvt. or Federal Reserve money at all), that's what the founding fathers specified in the U.S. Constitution!(A sovereign Nation of Sovereign Indivduals using Gold and Silver as a medium of exchange.)
Small stock investors lost their "Shirts"(including my Grandfather) while the "Big"(read super wealthy,good old boys)players, who were warned ahead of time about the crash siezed control of the industries and most large production facilities in the U.S., this went on up to and after WWII, when Americans spurred on by the war effort started out producing the rest of the war torn world.

"Why shouldn't the CB's sell thier Gold?

Because thats how "The Big Players" settle their accounts when they trade at the international level! The privately owned "CB's" are owned by "The Big Players!"

For those that don't know, the BIS(controller of all the CB's) values the U.S. dollar in Gold. 1 Gold Franc =$208. U.S. dollars.

Is the situation hopeless? (((NOT AT ALL!!!)))

Once the people figure out how to get "The Money Supply"((READ GOLD)) back as a medium of exchange among themselves they will have a chance to regain their Soveriegnty....IMHO!(Read Sir Aristotles 5 part discussion on using Gold as money at the top of the page, and lets discuss it some more!) And, I believe one way has already been started, on Feb.6,2001 which USAGOLD knows about, and hopefully will implement in the near future....I know I'm interested.....Thanks for Reading...Those in the Know are Buying Gold....Please remember I'm only a messenger, not the creator of known facts....beesting.

RossLJMB, Tree I.T.F.#4769002/07/01; 12:37:43

I am interested in an analysis of where the Feb. COMEX gold is going... I'm wondering how it is affecting the registered and eligible amounts at the warehouses, and if gold is entering or leaving the warehouses over the last few weeks. Does anyone have a source for these numbers for the last month or so?
Gandalf the WhiteMore on JMB's Question !#4769102/07/01; 12:41:52

http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/quickquote?+=gc%2C2

JMB (2/7/2001; 8:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 47676)
Goldman Sachs
Our new found friends were hit with 8 of the 39 Gold contracts issued today on the Comex.
All: How many Feb Gold contracts are still open on the Comex. TIA
----
Check out the LINK !
Looks as if 150 contracts still existed on the FEB contract as of yesterday.
---
<;-)

IronHeadStocks, Lies, and Ticker Tape - The Grande Illusion - RE:your #47684#4769202/07/01; 12:47:28

Sir SL&TT - Nothing comes by chance or cosmic big-bang, especially when it involves the logistics of developing the phsychology of the masses to accept a concept.

Don't you find it serendipitously fascinating that [we] are being led to this new *gold* coin? For what reason??

I think Sir Journeyman would call this "playing into our hand" - and hopefully he will correct my usage, as "not" a poker player I be.

Gold - hard to fake. [but watch for those plated Pandas]

Salutations
IronHead

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapePandagold, American savings?#4769302/07/01; 12:55:56

You can be assured that Uncle Sam is not trying to increase the rate of savings of the average citizen. Our culture has become one of spending at any cost. Thrift is a long forgotten practice. If you do not have the funds on hand there is a never ending line of easy credit for the taking. With the rate of taxation ever increasing Uncle Sam even taxes our interest income from a savings account!

The ignorance of our people regarding the monetary system is sadly nearly universal. The outright attack on gold from many fronts over the last 30 years has been extremely successful. I would be willing to bet if US citizens at random were given the opportunity to take for free $264 in US currency or one ounce of gold.....nine out of ten would take the $$. It is very sad.

beestingHere is Another Bizarre Thought!#4769402/07/01; 13:00:59

Why doesn't the U.S. pay off the National Debt or sell their Gold publicly?

Answer; The U.S. Federal reserve holds the 6.5 trillion and Gold as a show of "Collateral" to possibly..."""Avoid a Hostile Take over.""" How many of the Worlds Bankers would just love to collect the Wealth of The United States of America?????...beesting.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeIronHead, ....."Gold Tone" coin conditioning?#4769502/07/01; 13:12:52

Are you referring to increasing the citizens acceptance over time to real gold in coinage? If so, then that would make me a happy convert for the Sacagewea(sp?) dollar....but only if it is at least gold plated!

I think the issuance of a gold tone dollar was more of a cheap ploy to try to generate greater usage of the coin than the Anthony dollar.

Someone posted recently about adding gold threads into the dollar bills, I'd be grateful for any ploy to get gold in our currency so it will truly hold its value, and hopefully change public perception as a result.

IronHeadbeesting - NOT So Bizzare Thought RE:your #47694#4769602/07/01; 13:21:15

Sir Beesting - You've hit the nail on the head, and my answer to Sir Journeyman's question of "why Central Banks should not sell gold", takes the oppsosite tact, that indeed they should sell gold, and all of it, such that we as sovereign individuals can empower ouselves to trade and commerce freely amongst ourselves, and be "free" of their manipulations and usury.

But sell it they won't, with their holding and apparent accumulation, along with the Saudi's, Asian's, etc. etc. etc., should be an EMP (electro magnetic pulse) in our fuzzy little cortex's, TO GET SOME, MORE!!

Simply Me@SLATT RE:The Brassy Lassy#4769702/07/01; 13:25:45

Now THIS I know about. Sacagawea Dollar is total bust in commerce. When they first came out collectors (mostly new collectors who started a State Quarter collection) bought up rolls and BU Sacs and put them away (how many? who knows.) The Proof Sac. Dollar was very popular, too, when it first appeared. The collecting craze is done now, however. Now, if you try to give someone a Sac. Dollar in change, they look at you like you're trying to hand them a spider!

There was some discussion on this forum about the motives and purpose of introducing the Sac. Dollar. One of the best arguments IMO, was that the U.S. Treasury gets the profit from coinage, whereas only the Fed profits from printing the paper money. I do hope I'm relating that point right....maybe someone who knows that subject better can elaborate or correct the statement, as need be.

Just a thought, though....Does the Fed increase it's profits in any significant way by putting more currencey into circulation?

simply

Randy (@ The Tower)Fed's open market operations today added $5.490 billion to banking reserves#4769802/07/01; 13:48:01

Driven by need to grease the wheels...the fed funds market was near target, and the these were not overnight repos--they were 15-day agreements.

Don't you just love the slosh of currency as it flows past your ankles?

Tree in the ForestJMB, Gandalf#4769902/07/01; 13:54:35

Interesting that Comex gold and Futuresource numbers don't jibe. I'll check this out again tomorrow.
Randy (@ The Tower)Simply me...interesting comments about the Treasury and profits#4770002/07/01; 14:01:08

Could you attempt to elaborate a bit on what your thoughts are regarding the meaning of the word "profit" when it comes to the Treasury? Loosely put, I always saw it simply faced with the task to balance (or just keep) the books of the federal government -- both "non profit" institutions. (And that is not to suggest that there are not "benefits" to be redistributed to those in their employ, but the source and nature of those benefits is yet another matter for discussion.)
JMBGandalf the White#4770102/07/01; 14:05:25

"I see, I see.", said the blind man. If it was a snake, it would have bit me. Thanks

Say, that's a very interesting name you have. Maybe a small explanation for your fans.

Sierra MadreSacagawea Dollar....#4770202/07/01; 14:21:42

The reason behind the Sacagawea Dollar is that the money supply is reaching such stratospheric heights that it is becoming a real burden to print ever greater numbers of dollar bills. The bills only last about 3/4 months (?), maybe less, before they must be replaced.

The Sacagawea Dollar is here to stay, like it or not. In a couple of years, at most, you won't find dollar bills any more. They won't be printed anymore. You'll have to take the coins, there won't be anything else.

Later, the same thing will happen with five and ten dollar bills. You'll have coins.

The shape of the coins will vary; the dollar coin will eventually become about the size of a dime.

Such is inflation of the money supply. It's quite customary in the "third world". You'll just have to get used to it.

BelgianCentral Banks and Gold :#4770302/07/01; 14:31:31

Interesting, how little is known (publicised) about the actual purpose of Gold, for CBs. What is the meaning of that childfist with 8.000 tons of Gold for an immense flood of world US$s ? If the dollar-masters would attach any significant importance at Gold...they would have been accumulating much more of it instead of decreasing the initial ('71) amount, as is done with other strategic tangables (Ag etc..). In the not so distant past, Gold-reserves served as a public confidence of last resort, for masking the idiocy of relentless credit creation and artificial expansion. The absolute silence about gold is making its confidence role obsolete for the broad public.
Governments are sucked into the currency arena and have become speculators. The gold producers must know this and are scared to death that their goldmarket could implode.
They are forced to ignore some kind of Gold-Drama in order to save their skin. The WA came to their rescue. POG was diving at increasing speed. CB's invented the win-win hocus pocus. And the big gold-investors believed for a second that the CBs had changed their mind, not to sell it all, at once. Anglogold understood the message and adapted swiftly.

France, Italy and Germany, want us to believe they still rely on their goldreserve. But, why wasn't this argumented in extenso (price-supportive)? Is the global gold-world, too small and elitarian, that it doesn't deserve public attention anymore ? Is China the biggest secret buyer ? Is it a coincidence that Harmony ships its gold directly to China ?
Is it a coincidence that Japanse, for the first time ever, intends to acquire a hefty 21% stake in Harmony ? No it isn't. South Africa was and still is very active in those regions. We can only speculate on China's reasons to focus its attention(opening) on gold so "suddenly". Is there a strategic purpose or is it just plain vanilla jewelry business ?

What could be the main reason for CB's to sell gold ?
- they just want to get dollarized and use the handfull of gold-reserves, to help make it happen ?
- they had too much of it and haven't any clue as what to do with it ? (Belgium-Netherlands-Switzerland-UK)
- they prefer to play the modern game of currency-waving between US$-Euro-Yen ? Mouse-Click - it, money !

Is 32.000 tons of gold a sufficient amount of volume to activate (move-influence) a currency bloc ?
Are there any considerations on this 32.000 tons gold at all ? Is there an artificial silence, for not rocking POG to violently ? Not a single academic study on the topic of CB's and gold ! Unbelievable ! Economy students...wheeeeeere are you ?

Isn't it very, very, strange that the Buffet's and Gate's or Sorosses, have all choosen silver ???????? True or false ? Why is Anglogold trying to convince us that we are wrong with our conspiracy/manipulation theories ?
Is it a polite way to say : it's the CBs overhang stupido's ? Shut up and don't scare the gold-accumulators with your pot-stirring !?

Anglogold, only focusses on jewelry and not investment for its marketing initiatives. Do they consider gold "out" as "investment" ? Is jewelry the China approach ? India / ME, replacer ?

Are we confusing the POG-Manipulation with an orderly jewelrysation of CB gold ? Is each central bank on its own...or are there agreements between gold holders and goldsellers (other than WA)? What is the logic of selling so called excesses of goldreserves and keeping a much smaller amount in the vaults ?
But, if CBs, have the intention to sell more gold...why didn't they manage a POG increase, together with their producer allies ? Increase the lease-rate and whoops... off it goes. But does Anglogold want to share the goldmarket with other small pirates ? HaHaaaaaaaa.

I force myself to keep an open mind towards this 5 year POG-anomaly. It is not circumstantial ! Anglogold (Anglo American), not the South African government, must be an important "actor" and not a simple spectator, in the POG mystery.
Because Barrick is to be introduced in SA, rather than Franco Nevada ! Guess who is still in charge in SA. ? And always has been. Fundamental differences between Afrikaner(GOLD) and Anglo-Saxons(AU)! Still alive and kicking.
BTW, GOLD got a 7$ value as take over. IMO, there will be no take over but a merge (shareswap). 210 + 120 tons yearly
empowerment. (swing-producer)

Fact remains that the 30.000/32.000 tons of CB-gold hasn't officially increased. Does the WGC-facade knows, where the remaining gold is stored (if any)? How come, that the Fort Knox enigma is still unresolved ? I do feel so ridiculous, not being able to answer that simple question as a gold-phile. Not the only unanswered question of course.
If goldproducers would engage in media-initiatives to lift the price of their commodity...they would find plenty of confidence building stories to do so. Time out for playing secrecy games and artificial smoke screen acts . Another 50.000 tons of underground gold is at stake (golden arches). The reason why they just keep trying to adjust(hedging-consolidations-etc) on the lowering POG, must be an argument that something more fundamental is happening. I refuse to believe that world-gold-producers are infantiles. And Anglogold in particular.
They are not the prototype of Don Quichote. (cfr. De Beers cartel surviving for years)

What is the most pragmatic attitude towards this ongoing gold-enigma : accusing the supposed manipulators or trying to understand what and why this anomaly is happening ?
Answer : both + steady accumulation of physical gold, of course.
Disclaimer:I own gold and intend to accumulate progressively and steadyly.

POG doesn't react or anticipates nothing for the time being.
On the contrary...its behaviour is contradictionnal.
Has nothing to do with offer/demand balance or imbalance.
Gold-movers (pricemomentum-initiators) are extremely well informed and don't suffer from gold-paralysis. They do not "organise" an occasionnal (spontanious) POG ride anymore. They need a WA-alike, to take action again.
This behaviour is closer to an acceptance of some sort of huge gold overhang instead of "pure" manipulation for, God knows, what reason. Because I refuse to believe that big bad pirate-squeezers died out, completely .

Governments are continiously manipulating-managing their currency in function of their economic position towards their references. Have we any evidence that they are using gold for this purpose as well ? I don't . I have a strong perception they are treating gold as inherited family jewels, wich they sell or lease without any kind of emotion.Remember the Suisse referendum !
They just don't wan't to inform their citizens about this indifference, for reasons of possible price-imponderabile.
This unspoken attitude is probably an explanation for laclustre POG behaviour. We need an earthquake to revitalise the utmost importance of the forgotten gold.
This shock is surely in full preparation. In one single word :DEBT ! TA of POG over 30 yrs, suggests, we are pretty close. The complete amount of 32.000 tons is not going to be sold in one go. Maybe, already 10.000 tons of it are already gone ? France/Germany/Italy and the left overs of other nations might desire a higher price. Anglogold, perhaps will signal when they are ready to let the price spike ? Win-win, remember ! Oligopoly, you know ...or who knows really ? Fascinating, isn't it. Be part on this greatest show on earth.

PandagoldA turbulent year ahead?#4770402/07/01; 14:50:47

Where's my gold snake boots?

It would now appear that the Brit elections will be in May. How will this figure in the POG?

First, IMHO I believe (100%) BoE was working with the cabal in the manipulation of gold. This, to me, and many others, was made obvious by the way it was done — in particular announcing the decision well before the event, and in the manner (timing) in which the different auctions have been staged.

Obviously it would look very bad for Blair, if the gold price was to rise much above the average selling price of the different auctions before the election, I would feel the BofE have had assurances it would not. The opposition would have a field day on this alone.

Also, today in parliament, Blair has indicated a date for moving the country to drop the pound for the euro - within two years (though this would need a referendum). To help this along, and to sell it to the Brits, there would be a need to see the pound dropping and the euro gaining in strength, which is moving slightly that way now.

There are indications it could be towards the end of this year (I think beginning of next)

So, here are two things capping POG to around its present price for (give and take a few dollars up and down), at least, until towards autumn (fall). It is around this time that things also can go haywire, generally, in the financial markets - September/October.

There is another scenario brewing, one in which I hope my 'ether' vibes are proved wrong.

I have a gut feeling that Sharon will put forward a 'peace' deal to the Palestinians, one which will be hyped as Israel giving great concessions in exchange for peace. On the surface, especially to those who do not fully understand the problem (or even care), it will appear, by the way it is presented, that Israel is being more than generous.

To the Arab, it will be a double shuffle, or a deal from the bottom, whatever, and they will reject it, for they know that Israel will not meet the Palestinian, and majority Arab
demands on Jerusalem. They will, therefore reject it. The street fighting will go on, backed by a few terrorist attacks (maybe one terrorist attack staged by the Mossad).


It will be enough for Sharon to have the excuse to put down the Palestinians by force, escalating tension in the whole region, and put some Arab leadership in danger of being overthrown if they do not react against Israel.

You can guess what the outcome will be. At some stage, US involvement. This will work nicely to shift people's attention away from the economic situation at home which will be beginning to bite deeply by then.

There is much more, but I feel that is enough, for now. I hope it will NOT materialise, but, the odds, I feel, are more than 50 to 1. I will have my supply of the precious metal, in one form or another, as inflation will rear its ugly head (above the parapet) to the point where it wll be noticed. This, together with the ME problem will turn people to their old standby.

This will be a turbulent year in more ways than one. Well, what do you expect, it is the true millennium year. Snakes can be viscious, sneaky unpredictable creatures, and can strike suddenly and quickly - now where are my gold snake boots.

PandagoldThey'll wiggle out somehow#4770502/07/01; 15:29:48

Why do I get a feeling a deal has been done to take the heat of the Cabal by putting the emphasis on 'hedging' has being the main culprit?

It seems to be working

( article on Kitco News)
S African hedging moves rattle gold stocks
Feb 8
AAP


Australian gold stocks slumped on Wednesday after two South African mining houses revealed plans to increase their hedging of forward production.

The world's biggest gold miner, AngloGold, said at a conference in Capetown on Tuesday it intended to hedge 50 per cent of its production for the next five years over a 10-year period.

"Currently they are 50 per cent hedged for four years," Bell Securities gold analyst Mr Keith Goode said. "That therefore implies they are going to put in another 3.5 million ounces on their hedge book."

In addition, Harmony Gold Mining Co, which had said it would never hedge, revealed plans to forward sell 1 million ounces of production following its acquisition of Elandsrand and Deelkraal from AngloGold.

The announcements led to a slump in the gold price overnight and impacted negatively on North American and Australian gold stocks, Mr Goode said.

"The AngloGold and Harmony announcements stating that basically there was a net 4.5 million additional ounces hedged between them was enough for the gold price to fall.

"The general thought is that the South Africans are starting to get stuck into hedging... and the perception is the gold price is not going to run."

Also pressuring gold prices are concerns that the earthquake in India will affect the country's demand for gold.

Gold fell $US2.15 to $US263.40 an ounce on Wednesday with the Gold Index on the Australian stockmarket down 12.5 points at 707.

Among Australian gold producers, Delta Gold closed steady at $1.32, Goldfields was down 10¢ to $1.70, Normandy was 3¢ weaker at 95¢ and Newcrest fell 7¢ to $3.97.

Randy (@ The Tower)Gold, both on-lin and off-line#4770602/07/01; 15:38:48

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

A quick reminder that our featured "coin of the month" made specially available for on-line ordering happens to be two coins....the Swiss Confederatio 20 franc coin and the Danish "Mermaid" coin (in both 10 and 20 kroner sizes).

Now get this, in talking with MK at Centennial, he said they had secured some small caches of Argentinos and even some Uruguyan 5 pesos coins in addition to the usual slate of products. Call up the office and rattle his cage. Ask them what others they have on hand and tell them how many of these beauties you want at these excellent derivative-driven prices.

How nice it is to hold a world-class asset in the palm of your hands as tangible representation of your own productivity. This is the kind of thing that only YOU can do for you. Make the call....

Randy (@ The Tower)e#4770702/07/01; 15:40:32

There it is...it fell off, seemingly.
Mr GreshamBelgian (02/07/01; 14:31:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 47703)#4770802/07/01; 16:09:18

There you go again; more questions than Columbo (Peter Falk)!

Very good -- I wish there was a way of organizing what you've written in your last two posts, for it seems like you do the best job of including all of the issues in our "mystery" up to the point where we do not know the next fact.

My summary guess for all of it would be: public gold passing into private hands. At low prices (public excluded) for as long as possible, then during the ramp-up some last-minute sprees with letters of credit and corporate paper issue?

Perhaps the CBs and mining corps are to be jettisoned in a banking crisis? Or side-stepped in favor of some new free-wheeling private international bank. The illusion of powerful governments and the publicly-visible CBs (with their bureaucratic staffs) will be considered expendable after a banking meltdown? The "rescuers" will be ready...

Ah, if only M could just send 007 on a small information-gathering mission... ("Do you expect me to talk?" "No, Mr Bond. I expect you to die!")

Sierra MadreBelgian...a simple solution to a complex problem#4770902/07/01; 16:28:17

Why is gold behaving so peculiarly?

I had a post ready on this subject earlier today, but erased it. Here goes, again:

The simplest solution to all the peculiarities that gold is exhibiting on the worldwide scene, is staring us in the face. We just have to recognize it:

The powers that be know perfectly well that this period we have been living through, of paper money, has to come to an end in the not distant future.

The powers that be, dictate to Central Banks. We tend to believe that these institutions are sovereign and represent institutions at the service of their respective nations. This is simply false. Central Banks have supranational masters.

The Masters have decided to loot the Central Banks, to use the mega-banks for their purposes, and to consolidate control over gold mining all over the world, by bankrupting the mines.

Gold is more important than ever, and the Masters know it.

The low price, in constant decline, is meant to scare off investors so that they, the Masters, can accumulate as much as possible during this period, before the whole paper system collapses in world wide inflation.

In the meantime, the Masters are accumulating enormous quantities of gold. They will land on their feet, after the huge crisis, as they have always done. Goldman Sachs, Chase, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Citibank will be allowed to go broke, and then handed over to governments (read taxpayers) to bail them out. The liabilities in gold derivatives mean nothing to the Masters. The gold means everything!

In the new era which has not yet dawned, the Masters will be great holders of gold, accumulated in secret at extremely low prices.

This is what a corporation with crooked owners does with its prime assets when it sees the jig is just about up: the enduring, valuable assets are sold off cheap to the Insiders. Let the dumb stockholders hold the bag.

Who are the Masters? Perhaps we shall find out, someday, if we live long enough. What we are witnessing are actions that are incomprehensible unless this final objective is taken into account: paper is on the way out, gold is to be the basis of power, as always, for the Masters of Finance.

Accumulate as much as possible. Forget the price!

Trail GuideA New Tack From U.S. #4771002/07/01; 16:46:12

http://www.iht.com/articles/9910.htm

A New Tack From U.S.
David E. Sanger New York Times Service
Wednesday, February 7, 2001

Treasury Secretary Rejects Lecturing Tokyo

WASHINGTON President George W. Bush's Treasury secretary plans a new U.S. approach for dealing with Japan, as the world's largest and second-largest economies appear headed into decline. -------------------------------- The combined effect of slumps in both countries, which together make up about 40 percent of the global economy, is being felt worldwide. Yet politicians and bureaucrats in Japan appear to be invoking the same prescriptions - hundreds of billions of dollars of more deficit spending by the government - that have repeatedly failed to get the country growing again. ------------------- He said, for example, that he was not interested in lengthy, vague discussion of Japan's myriad regulations. Instead, he said, he wanted to introduce "price competition" to Japan, noting that it was exactly that kind of competition from abroad that rebuilt U.S. industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s. ----------- But the same Japanese executives with whom Mr. O'Neill says he wants to deal directly have spent years fighting against low-priced competition, both foreign and domestic. --------------

------------------------

With no where to turn, no new initiatives to tap and arriving at a timeline change in international currency values; both these countries are about to take a path of no return. As this downturn begins to bite, our collective governments will be forced to buy up every asset necessary. All just to keep the fires burning! This is the classic threshold of an intense inflation.

It makes me recall a line from Red October, the movie,,,,,, where the Russian submarine captain (played by our retired 007) disposes of his KGB counterpart just before stealing the ship! He says:

---- "to where I am going, you cannot follow"-------

Indeed, where the dollar universe is now heading, no nation should follow! Can you spell hyperinflation? In Japanese?

TrailGuide

Trail GuideNation Hopes to Return to Preeminence#4771102/07/01; 17:03:13

http://www.iht.com/articles/9939.htm

A Despondent Japan Seeks Some Answers
Howard W. French New York Times Service
Wednesday, February 7, 2001

The fearful talk in Tokyo financial circles for more than a month has been the possible collapse of the banking system. Banks never recovered from the bursting of Japan's speculative bubble in 1990 and remain saddled with an untold, and undisclosed, sea of unrecoverable debts. If defaulting creditors set off a wave of failures, it would mark the second time in two years that the country has experienced a banking crisis. ----------------------------- Growing numbers of Japanese economists maintain that the postwar obsession with exports is a major part of the
problem. According to this view, the welfare of Japanese people has been sacrificed in the name of mobilizing capital toward exports instead of developing goods for local consumption.----------- As a result, the public has been stuck with tiny, expensive homes in overcrowded neighborhoods, high prices on consumer goods and few affordable options for day care or elderly care. Japan's
electronic brands are known worldwide, but many Japanese do not own a clothes dryer or dishwasher. Young women are increasingly revolting against the system by postponing marriage and children. -------------- "The Japanese focus has never been on making Japanese richer, their lives happier or more convenient and predictable," said Haruo Shimada, an economist at Keio University. "All of our energy has been focused on competing with the United States."

----------------------

Most Western people do not know the Japan that resides in the last several lines above. We have always been told that they are rich with savings. I know this land of the Yen and their image was never as good as we were told.

TrailGuide

Trail GuideInterest rate cut in euro zone some way off - ECB #4771202/07/01; 17:10:01

http://www.ireland.com/business/news/2001/0208/news3.htm

By Jane Suiter, Economics Editor

Interest rate cuts are still some way off, according to two of the most senior figures in the European Central Bank.

Strong data from Germany have bolstered ECB hopes that Europe can withstand the slowdown in the US.

Yesterday, the Bundesbank president, Mr Ernst Welteke, repeated his view that the time was not right yet for a cut in euro zone interest rates but the ECB was closely watching what kind of impact the US slowdown might have.

"We still feel it is not yet the time to reduce interest rates," Mr Welteke, a member of the ECB's governing council, told CNN International.

**********
German manufacturing orders jumped 2.7 per cent in December, far higher than the market had been predicting. French consumer confidence also hit a record high in January.
*********

The data also boosted the euro, which rose above $0.93, closing at $0.9333 from $0.9308 a day earlier.

********
The currency could move back to parity with the dollar in the coming months, said Mr Horst Siebert, one of the German government's panel of independent economic advisers, in a magazine interview this week.
**********

"It is feasible that the euro will move back towards dollar parity," he said in an interview to be published in today's edition of the German weekly
WirtschaftsWoche.

Trail GuideBritain must ease US fears on Euro army, says Cook#4771302/07/01; 17:17:57

http://www.telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000626415357098&rtmo=weQ0ljnb&atmo=99999999&pg=/et/01/2/7/weu07.html

By Toby Harnden in Washington

BRITAIN must allay US fears about the new European Rapid Reaction Force, Robin Cook said yesterday.

Speaking after meeting Gen Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, in Washington, the Foreign Secretary said that the force could strengthen Nato. Gen Powell said he was encouraged by Mr Cook's promise that it would not be a rival. He said: "If we approach the European Strategic Defence Initiative in the way that Robin and I have discussed, then there's no reason to see this de-stabilising Nato in any way." Mr Cook reassured Gen Powell that Britain was fully committed to the Anglo-American relationship.--------------

-------------

Seems they have changed their feelings????
I will be back when able.

Thanks
TrailGuide

Canuck@ Sierra Madre#4771402/07/01; 17:34:01

From your post:

"The Masters have decided to loot the Central Banks, to use the mega-banks for their purposes, and to consolidate control over gold mining all over the world, by bankrupting the mines."
-----------------------------------------------------------

I believe you have nailed the 'fishing' contest that Belgian, myself and a couple others have been floundering with.

So let's fast forward to the time (hopefully in the intermediate future) where the MASTERS have starved the miners to insolvency. A well-planned spike will secure confiscation of the mines, and low and behold we find out who has been ACCUMULATING over the years. So the masters have the gold above ground and the gold in the ground.

Where does that leave us, the little accumulators with a modest stash hidden away, nervous of the consequences?

With their 'plan' visible, what is our plan?

Canuck.

JourneymanWho's profit center is paper money vs. coins @Simply Me, Randy, ALL#4771502/07/01; 17:55:11

http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed01.html

Hi Simply Me!

You've pretty much gotten the underlying facts straight. As far as why the "golden dollar" is being pushed, well your speculations are as good as any.

The cost of manufacturing U.S. paper money - - - and, if you read carefully, who's profit center paper money is as opposed to who's profit center coin manufacturing is can be found in the above link to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. First:

"The Federal Reserve orders new currency from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, which produces the appropriate denominations and ships them to the Reserve Banks. Each note costs about four cents to produce."

Then:

"The distribution of coins differs from that of currency in some respects. First, when the Fed receives currency from the Treasury, it pays only for the cost of printing the notes. However, coins are a direct obligation of the Treasury, so the Reserve Banks pay the Treasury the face value of the coins."

High regards,
Journeyman

Hi-HatTrail Guide#4771602/07/01; 18:10:17

Hello again. Could you please elaborate a little more on the dynamic that locks us into hyper-inflation.?

Inflation is inflation is inflation, but hyper-inflation
conjures up an image of string pushing that seems insane.

With markets and jobs potentially liquidating,defaults,
bankruptcy, etc. etc. I guess I just can't "see" what
mechanism causes the hyper.

The clowns in Washington have over our History pulled
many a rabbit out of the hat, to defraud and welsch
on a game gone bad.

People in soup lines are manageable and it seems like an elite oligarchy could believe they could control that
outcome. However it would seem that the going hyper
would unleash an all bets are off, dangerous unknown.

CoBra(too)Mr. McTeer and the "Buy the SUV" Syndrome! #4771702/07/01; 18:18:15

...You gotta love the guy stating amidst a mounting energy crisis to buy a gas guzzling and probably third family car to help a slowing economy, dependent on consumers 'only!' along to renewed vigor.
Just assuming the said SUV sports license plates spelling Mitsubishi, Subaru, Daewoo or even BM'W' you'd be doing a lot for the economy, globally. Though, maybe, not as much for the currency as Mr. McTeer's first consideration should be.
So, maybe, he should have said - consume more of the high
tech fast food, crowding the alley of Silicon Valley - and dont gorge too much of the Beijing Duck ... stay close to home and cheer the NASDuck (-in merger talks with the EASDuck) "....". And as I can't spell the word to end this bland description of nonchalance, I'm asking, why can't we consume the taxpayers gold, assumed to be in the vaults of Ft. Knox, by chance?
Mac, we'll assure thee, we'll consume the stuff and turn the economee - around to a sound recipe'.
Telling you? cb2

slingshotThe Plan.#4771802/07/01; 18:18:23

CANUCK Msg.47714

Looks like the CB's would have us in a pickle if they have both above and below ground Gold. Paper would be out for sure. So, What's the plan? First do not get nervous. Learn a "DIRTY HANDS" skill. Get some street smarts. Learn how to barter. Use your Gold to purchase items of necessity. Wow! Flashback of Y2K.
How about since we have some gold, that we just exchange among ourselves and to HADES with the banks.

Slingshot

CoBra(too)"The Frankfurt Stock Exchange" - eg German Bourse ...#4771902/07/01; 18:42:41

... outdid itself by listing in form of the first major IPO of the millenium on itself! The issue was 23 times oversubcribed - don't know about greenshoe - and traded itself on itself -shy of 10% - to a first recorded record price.
Nice? - and worthy of TIME magazine's, sublime front page contrarian indicator - vice. All told - go gold -cb2

Randy (@ The Tower)Journeyman, yes, precisely....but "profit"?#4772002/07/01; 18:42:54

We've stabbed at this before on the forum. Perhaps you would like to lead off with your own attempt at expressing the meaning of the word.

I believe as people come to better terms with the meaning of "profit", their enhanced understanding will clarify the important role of gold in their financial lives.

Many people make a big mistake when they buy into the notion that "money makes money". How, by "profits"? What is that, interest or something else?

A bit of thought will convince them that money does not make money, but rather it is by time, energy, talent, ideas and effort that money may be made. And if we can say that all comerce (trade) occurs as participants swap items of perceived equivalent value, then wherein lies "profit"? What we see is each participant seeking to increase his personal advantage by trading his item for that offered by another...each gaining the desired advantage through this trade of "equivalent items". And yes, most times one side of this trade is only currency, but that fact itself does not equate to "profit".

For the moment, I will leave it to others to expand on this if they choose, and I may come back to it as time allows.

RossLCOMEX stoppers and warehouse stocks analysis#4772102/07/01; 18:49:40

http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=warehouse

The above link will bring up a list of documents on COMEX warehouse stocks. Yesterday a link was posted by Randy that provides info on the stoppers, the COMEX paper that delivery of 100 oz. gold is exercised by the long.

In the 5 business days since first delivery notice day, 4858 contracts have been stopped for a total of 485800 ounces of gold. However, since January 30th, COMEX warehouse stocks have only dropped 97 ounces of gold from 1775330 oz. to 1775233 oz.

Guys, it's too early to proclaim GS as a savior. Apparently, the big banks are just trading warehouse receipts!!

slingshotRandy@ The Tower Msg 47720#4772202/07/01; 19:06:40

Profit

Profit is the vehicle which increases ones personal resources giving the preception of accumulated wealth.
Slingshot.

JMBThe Bubble Fix#4772302/07/01; 19:23:03

http://www.msdw.com/GEFdata/digests/20010205-mon.html

I'll have the inflation please.
JourneymanCB PROFIT CENTERS @Randy, ALL#4772402/07/01; 19:24:44

Hi Sir Randy!

Notice I used the term "profit center" because as many, particularly Peter Drucker (and I believe, Peter Asher) have pointed out, there is no "profit" for an organization until the last bookkeeping entry shows an excess. In other words, while you may make huge gains from bartering one thing for another ("selling" it if it's barter FOR money), until your whole operation shows a profit (more bartering power than you began with), usually accounted in "FRNS) here in U.S.A., you haven't made a "profit."

Please note that because of the "law" of comparative advantage (division of labor) BOTH sides of a transaction can and should show a "profit," that is, increase in trading power.

Vegas, pre Howard Hughes, often sold food and entertainment at a loss, to be underwritten by their profits from the casinos. That is, the casinos made more money than the whole hotel-casino operation made as an economic entity. The casino was a "profit center" but some of the excess money the casino division made went to underwrite the rest of the operation. Of course, it was the overall business equation that counted - - - free food and entertainment was one way the casinos ended up with so many willing customers.

SO - - - WITHIN an operation, you talk about "profit centers" and it's fairly safe to make calculations as to any excess they produce over costs - - - and call it "profit." However, when talking about the WHOLE OPERATION, only the "bottom line" counts. Because by definition the whole operation is more complex than it's sub-operations, it's more difficult to analyze a whole business than one of it's subdivisions - - - ASSUMING the internal accounting is set up appropriately.

As far as CB bottom line profits, I'm sure they have a nice black one. However it is ALSO safe to say that "buying" paper bills for four cents each and "selling" (distributing) them at face value is a tremendously profitable part of their business. That is, a tremendously valuable "profit center."

Regards,
Journeyman

JMBRossL#4772502/07/01; 19:51:08

"The big banks are trading warehouse receipts", ....darn.
You may be right; BUT, I read a series of posts about a kitco poster who decided to take delivery of a Gold contract. The process went on and on for two or three months until the fellow finally received his Gold. So, could be the Comex is in no hurry to deliver. I have not said this to be argumentative; hey RossL, you might be right on the money. I would like to keep an eye on the Comex Gold stash. Thanks for the info, it's great.

RossLJMB#4772602/07/01; 20:03:13

That's an interesting story about the guy who took delivery of gold from the COMEX. Does this look like there is a pattern here: High volume on the COMEX, but it's just big banks trading warehouse reciepts. High volume on the LBMA but little evidence of any 400 ounce LGD bars moving around. Central banks holding high-profile gold sales but little evidence of any 400 ounce LGD bars moving around.
???

Carl HGold Manipulation Scenario#4772702/07/01; 20:05:56

Gold Manipulation Scenario

This article is an attempt to put together a story that fits the facts that I know about the manipulation of the gold market. I would greatly appreciate it if anyone reading this would point out any errors on my part.

First, if there is any question that the gold market is being manipulated, I suggest reading the GATA lawsuit filing at www.gata.org and the articles by Dr. Clawar on Gold-Eagle (eg
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/clawar020201.html )

Section 1 – Bullion Banks Establish the Gold Carry Trade

From what I have read, it seems that a few years ago a number of Bullion Banks started borrowing gold at interest rates of around 1% from Central banks. This gold was immediately sold on the spot market and the money and invested it in higher yielding investments. This type of operation is referred to as a carry trade. This practice went unchecked and has reached a point where at least 6000tons and probably as much as 10000tons of gold are owed to the central banks. To put these numbers in perspective, annual world wide mine production is estimated to be about 2500tons.

Section 2 – Lining up the Gold to Unwind the Carry Trade

I consider the above paragraph to be fairly well established information. Now, I will speculate for a moment. If I were the bullion bankers and was in this situation, I would want to get my hands on a tremendous amount of physical gold at cheap prices. As far as I know, only the central banks and mining companies have large amounts of physical gold. In the case of the mining companies, it is still in the ground. I will assume here that the central banks would be very reluctant to let the bullion banks default. It would show how stupid or corrupt the central bankers are and it might be a big enough scandal to change the outcome of some elections. Ok, so this means that I have to convince the mining companies to sell me all the gold they produce for the next several years at prices close to what they are currently. So, how would one go about convincing the mining companies to sell their future production? You'd either have to convince them that the price of gold was going to stay low for the period of time for which you wanted them to sell you the production or you would have to coerce them into selling future production. To accomplish this, you would have to convince them that there was a large supply of gold that was going to be dumped on the market. As stated above, the only other large holder of gold is the central banks. So, you have to convince the central banks to drive down the price of gold and act like they are ready to dump much more gold.

So, the question then is how to separate a central banker and his gold. Simple, create a potential crisis of a magnitude that it will force him to sell gold to prevent it. This is easily done by simply writing a huge gold call options (or surrogates thereof). Then, if the price of gold rises, the Bullion banks will fail and probably take the financial system with them. This compels the central banks to cap the price of gold at a level that less than the cost of production for many mines. This forces those mines to hedge or go bankrupt. The Bullion Banks can then acquire the forward production at prices near the cost of production, or to acquire the bankrupt mine. What is even better is that hedging will help hold down the price and force other mining companies to hedge.

Section 3 – Depressing the price of Gold

Now I will step into the Central Banker's shoes. I have just been posed with a potential crisis that requires me to cap the price of gold for some length of time while the options that the Bullion Banks are holding expire. How would I accomplish this? The best option would be to talk gold down by calling it a barberous relic etc. The next best option would be to convince or coerce other central banks that are not aware of what is going on to sell or lend their gold out. This might be accomplished by arranging sweet arms deals (eg Kuwait), or putting it as a string on some disaster aid (eg Bangladesh flood aid). The third option would be to depress the price by manipulations in the paper market for gold. Finally, as a last resort, I would sell physical gold on the New York market. The New York market is considerably smaller than the London market and should require less physical gold to manipulate. The starting price is London will be influenced by the closing price in NY. (see Dr. Clawar's work cited above.)
As an added benefit to me as a Central Banker, manipulating the price of gold will help to conceal and contain inflation.

Section 4 – When can the Price Cap be released?

When one or perhaps two conditions are met, the price cap on gold will be released. The condition that must be met is that the Bullion Banks must have significantly reduced their derivative positions. One would suspect from http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/howe011901.html that their derivative positions are shrinking. The second condition that might have to be met is that the Bullion Banks have acquired enough future mine production to pay back the central banks.

Section 5 – The Unwinding of the Carry Trade

So, what happens when the price cap is released and the carry trade begins to unwind? The Bullion Banks will basically be acting as a conduit for sending the mine production back to the Central Banks. This would mean that the effective supply of gold from mining would drop substantially for a number of years. Even if the same number of dollars were purchasing gold under these conditions, it would cause the price of gold to rise several fold. However, investment dollars tend to chase whatever is going up in price. Hence, I suspect that the increase would be larger than the number that would be arrived at by assuming a constant number of dollars buying gold.

The central bankers would probably not mind this too much because they could blame the situation on the forward sales of the mining companies and effectively cover up their own incompetence at controlling inflation.

Section 6 – Questions for the Readers

Now, I have several questions for the readers.

1. Is anyone aware of facts that would disprove or support any of the speculation?
2. Does anyone know where to get grand total numbers for the hedging operations of the mining companies?
3. Do the Bullion Banks publish their derivative positions?

goldfan@ ORO, John Doe, Journeyman#4772802/07/01; 20:22:14

Thanks for your responses to my posts.
Very interesting link John Doe.

Back to my drawing board.

Goldfan

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeSimply Me,.........Sacagewea $#4772902/07/01; 20:24:15

That is a scary thought! To think that the mint could be following in the footsteps of the USPS in issuing gozillions of new coins just to have collectors squirrel a few away yielding a profit like a postage stamp not canceled! I fear the Bill & Hill coin may be arriving soon, ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!
Tree in the ForestJMB, RossL Something is up at Comex #4773002/07/01; 20:28:54

The way the Comex works is that there is a first notice day which is usually at the end of the previous month or the beginning of the contract month in question. For example, for the Feb gold contract, FND was Jan 31. This is the first day that stoppers declare their intentions to take delivery. Then delivery starts from Comex on the first delivery day (FDD) which for Feb is Feb 1. Then there is a last trading day (LTD) which for Feb is Feb 26. This is the last day that contracts are allowed to trade. Next comes the LND, last notice day which is the last day that stoppers can declare their intention to take delivery. This is Feb 27. Finally we have LDD, the last delivery day by which Comex must cough up the commodity. For the Feb contract this is Feb 28. There is no waiting interminably for delivery. It's a standardized commodity contract under law. If they don't deliver on LDD, it's a breach of contract, default. Now, according to the figures off of your link, we have currently 4897 stoppers in Feb. But this can't be for the Feb contract because open interest is down to 150 contracts. March has no OI. So this must be for April, but that would mean that stoppers are calling for delivery before FND. So we have something up at Comex. Curiouser and curiouser!
R PowellCarl H Re: Scenario#4773102/07/01; 20:31:51

Excellent analysis. I wish I could give some definitive answers but I can't. I can, however, say that a fellow named Don_L at the Gold-Eagle forum has for a long time been analysing the call to put option ratio in gold. I believe he's trying to determine if future price movement can be foretold using this ratio. He offers (by e-mail) to share his work. He may know some of the answers OR where to find some of the answers you are looking for. I believe he studies this ratio by the month with an eye toward the influence of the ratio at option expiry on the POG.
Your idea appeals logical to me but lets see what better, more knowledgable minds have to offer. I hope ORO responds here, among others.
Rich

JMBRossL#4773202/07/01; 20:34:15

Could it be that the Gold Receipts are considered to be as 'good as Gold'? Maybe the Receipt Holder can take the paper to the Bullion Bank where he borrowed the Gold, hand it over, and his debt is paid. The Bullion Banker is happy because he knows the Comex is a very reputable place and the Warehouse is second only to Fort Knox, so he jumps up, clicks his heels together and yells "Happy days! I got my Gold back!"
Come to think of it, the Gold Receipts are the only legitimate money in the world and Goldman Sachs is our savior. HA HA

RossL, you still there? What do you think? (cxl the GS part)

R PowellStoppers on COMEX / Tree in the Forest#4773302/07/01; 20:46:32

Question concerning stoppers. If intent to accept delivery is given, wouldn't that remove one contract from open interest? Thus many contracts may have been stopped by those desiring delivery and then COMEX would reduce O.I. by that number of contracts just as if they had been offset. No? Good question. Anyone know for sure?
Rich

Chris PowellGold Fields takeover talk#4773402/07/01; 20:51:07

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/646

Indaba conference buzzing about possible takeover
of Gold Fields.

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by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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Chris PowellLatest from GATA delegation in South Africa#4773502/07/01; 20:53:21

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/647

Support is growing down there.

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JourneymanWhat "delivery" is?? @Tree In The Forest, ANYONE#4773602/07/01; 20:53:40

Hi TIF, ANYONE!

COMEX operations is something I know next to nothing about, so one question I have is:

What does "delivery" mean? Does it mean a "title" to gold just changes hands? That is, does this mean that no gold moves, not even from shelf to shelf within the COMEX warehouse?

Or does "delivery" mean folks drive up in their pick-up trucks (or hire Brinks) to come to COMEX and load the gold on these vehicles for delivery outside the COMEX warehouses entirely?

Or does "delivery" mean both? If so, how much leaves on the trucks compared to how much doesn't move?

Related: How often does gold move (on trucks) from outside COMEX warehouses into them? How much?

The question has come up several times here, and as far as I know, no one has answered it.

I think I know the answer, but I'd rather KNOW I know!

Regards and TIA,
Journeyman

JMBTREE IN THE FOREST#4773702/07/01; 20:53:49

Tree: I think Rich has a good point there.
R PowellCarl H/ Section 5 (47730)#4773802/07/01; 21:03:29

Your section 5 reasoning would seem to set up a situation where the Central Banks recover their physical gold and the Bullion Banks have their debt repaid regardless of the POG. Both could even be totally uncaring about the price in dollar terms although the Central Banks could mark to market their gold as a more precious (in dollar terms) asset. The Bullion Banks would probably want to hold more than enough options to repay their debt as they will know that the POG will skyrocket. They'll want some for their own pockets.
In fact, both will be happy to see POG go up. Who would be left to want the price to remain low? Both of them would be promoting and advocating a higher price. This I'd like to see, and they said it would never freeze over!
Rich

JMBJourneyman#4773902/07/01; 21:04:35

Here's two additional terms to throw into the mix.
1. Tender
2. Retender
The fellow at kitco considered the "pickup" but decided on Brinks for delivery.

Remember, only The Shadow KNOWS for sure. But let's hear your conclusion.

JourneymanWhat I think @JMB#4774002/07/01; 21:20:37

Hi JMB!

What I think is that gold rarely enters COMEX and even more rarely leaves it. It's too "risky" to take your pick-up in and pile it high - - even Brinks. And where do you keep it?

If this is correct, this means nearly all "delivery" doesn't even disturb the dust on any of those gold bars in the COMEX warehouses.

This would explain the 2.5 month difficulties the Kitco poster had, since this would be an unusual operation for COMEX.

But remember, I know next to nothing about COMEX operations, so I'm going on logic only, a poor substitute for facts!!!

Regards and TIA,
Journeyman

R PowellJourneyman/title#4774102/07/01; 21:21:50

COMEX will allow you to make arrangements to pick up and carry away your physical gold from specified points at a specified time or give you a certificate of ownership and store it for you for a fee I'm sure.
Most contracts (about 98%) are simply offset at a profit or loss before delivery but there seems to be more notices of delivery than normal. That's what all this excitment is about. We all know there are many times more contracts in play than can be honored so when some are looking to take delivery of physical, visions of a short squeeze dance through our heads. The contracts will be honored, what will be at issue is, at what dollar price?
If enough long positions want delivery and there isn't enough to go around then some of the longs will have to be persuaded to offset for dollars rather than for physical.
At what price per ounce will you sell back the 100 ounces you have bought? Kinda makes you think of poker, doesn't it? I'd love to know who Goldman's client is that is taking physical delivery?
Rich

JourneymanAnother question @ALL#4774202/07/01; 21:24:21

Is COMEX gold fungible? They can "fingerprint" gold now, but does it matter WHICH gold you gain title to - - - or is it strictly commoditized?

How do they make change?

Regards,
Journeyman

R PowellJourneyman#4774302/07/01; 21:31:35

Yes, of course, many big players might take delivery without the dust being disturbed. Most all of COMEX is a paper chase. It's very concievable that the grandaddy of all squeezes could unfold without much profit paid to Brinks for trucking fees. I think this more likely in silver than gold but one should lift the other and either should attract investment from the unknowing momentum following money.
Rich

JMBJourneyman#4774402/07/01; 21:42:50

Gold is Gold, but I think the Comex wants it to be .9999 pure. Maples can be used but not Eagles, I think.

Rich: Maybe Goldman Sachs is doing it in their own account. I remember seeing Bill Murphy state a number of times that one Rat would jump ship and start the Run....Bill thought it would be GS. If Bill's right, this could be the start of something wonderful. ho ho, wouldn't that be something to see?
TOCOM here we come....I can hardly wait. I gotta settle down, I tend to get carried away, sorry.

Paul O'Neill on CNN now

R PowellJourneyman#4774502/07/01; 21:43:42

"How do they make change"
That's why the good Lord created silver!
Rich

JMBR Powell#4774602/07/01; 21:49:35

Your 47745 is Hall of Fame material.
R PowellCarl H#4774702/07/01; 22:03:22

If we only knew who held what positions and in what magnitude in regard to options and futures and debts owed from the gold carry of many years. If all this were available and we could watch as these forces changed day by day, then we could almost predict the POG with some certainty and timeliness. I believe mining company reports give figures of forward sales which is some insight and often mentioned in terms of "hedged" meaning bad and "unhedged" meaning good investment but this is only part of the puzzle.
Perhaps the next best thing is to keep a eye on the activities of those players who might have a clear view of what we can not see. When the rabbit freezes and the squirrel runs for the nearest tree, then something is about to happen even though it might not yet be clear what's coming. Thus we watch gold stocks and the likes of Goldman Sacks.
I think your scenario deserves study.
Thanks Rich

Mr GreshamSierra Madre (02/07/01; 16:28:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47709)#4774802/07/01; 22:16:26

Wow! You read every little cranny in my mind!

All the known entities -- dollars & govs & BBs & CBs & GSs & Barricks -- are used, and then flushed.

Those who THINK they are in "The Circle" are probably scurrying around to find out if there is a more inner Club they're being cut out of, or if they know of it, trying to find out the price of admission.

It's the model of corporate asset looting we have watched for 20 years now, brought to its finest moment. Shareholders, citizens & workers are the patsies.

The pyramid of hierarchy has to scramble its old institutions and re-form, in order to shake off recent accretions of climbers, so that "exclusive" can once more truly mean "Exclusive".

Escape the matrix!

Canuck: It's a good time to be one of the small fry...

Simply Me@Randy @Journeyman @SLATT RE: Sac $ Profits? @CoBra2, too!#4774902/07/01; 23:02:21

Hi Randy,
Duties took me away from the forum for awhile and, in my absence, Journeyman presented just the explanation I was looking for. I didn't remember all the details. My incomplete answer would have been some blather about the Fed's seniorage(sp?), which I believe is the difference between what the currency note costs the Fed and the face value of the note. In the case of the Treasury, I believe the Fed Banks must pay face value. Therefore a $1 coin benefits the Treasury, whereas the $1 benefits the Fed.

That very issue, though, is what keeps me dogging the goldmine issue. Before "money" came from the Fed or the US Treasury, money came from goldmines and it was extremely profitable. International money, the kind no one can devalue or inflate, still does come from goldmines. Only the Fed and the Treasury, as an arm of the US government, have worked very hard to blind us to that fact.

As for whether "seniorage" is profit, if you're ahead after the transaction, isn't that profit, no matter what it's called? Those "benefits" wind up in someone's pocket. Was it John D. Rockefeller who said, "I don't own anything. I control everything." ? He had a few non-profit organizations under his control, I believe.

Hi Journeyman,
Thanks for explaining that for me. It got me off the hook with Randy! ;o As you said, I had the basic idea, but I surely needed someone to help me with the particulars!

I don't really think the US Treasury is looking to issue collectible coins so that people will sock them away. I think they really do want the coins to circulate. I just think the Treasury is trying to chop a little off the Fed's seniorage. Money issue or power issue, I don't know. Maybe they're the same issue.
"What are your thoughts on that, Hobson?" (Dudley Moore, "Arthur")

Hi Stocks, Lies and Ticker Tape,
Why not? It works for the Post Office. But I don't think you have to worry about a Bill&Hill coin (which side is tails?).
If your target market can't fill out a ballot properly, they probably can't figure out how to put a coin in an album, either. If the Mint ever starts producing Bill&Hill coins, I want to open an Elmer's Glue & Scotch Tape concession in every bank.

Hi CoBra2,
"Thanks for noticin' me." (Eyore, "Winnie the Pooh")

simply me

Simply Meoooops#4775002/07/01; 23:06:49

......In the case of the Treasury, I believe the Fed Banks must pay face value.......should have read as follows:
In the case of the Treasury, I believe the Fed Banks must pay them face value for coins.
sorry
simply me

Mr GreshamCarl H#4775102/07/01; 23:40:15

The picture I get from your excellent presentation of the known facts is that of a gunman (BBs) entering the bank and pointing the gun at his own head, demanding the tellers hand over cash. "If you don't want my blood all over your nice, polished marble floors..."

My unresearched impression of BBs is that, while they are big names in the gold world, or subsidiaries of major banking institutions, that their bankruptcies could be cut loose from their corporate parents. Can anyone enlighten on this?

Playing the CBs off against the mines, ver-r-r-y clever. "He's gonna dump his gold. But I can lock you in at this price now. Last chance, whaddya say?"

The 1996-97 POG dive down toward the cost of production could have been a move on the mines.

The CBs could have been holding off BB-induced financial collapse while awaiting the Euro. Question to any: Were all of the CBs Euro enthusiasts? Or reluctantly dragged to the party? Or maybe Germans walked -- and bargained from -- the middle, to see if they would increase their power over their DM predecessor?

Yes, CBs would try to do this with the smallest expenditure of gold, as I think FOA has indicated most "sales" to be internal transfers.

One thing, if BBs have now "significantly reduced their derivative positions", how did they accomplish this? This means buying back calls? Who sold them? Or, just buying time allows calls to expire (were most of them short-term?)

The Unwinding, ah yes, the unwinding! FOA has indicated this, that the CBs will not mind the price hold-down, because they will gain many times the value back.

They can put forward the new currency and see if it flies without gold backing. Profit center. Plan B is to slip some credibility behind it using the gold reserves, virtually, or physically, if necessary.

It occurs to me: Oro's objections to Europe's economic methods point to the new currency as possibly a "reserve currency franchise opening" the Europeans saw they could seize from the U.S. and profit from in order to support their ways of living, and NOT have to radically compete with U.S. ways. The cushion that they've seen Americans coasting on for 30+ years.

And with the currency, and gold, they can "re-colonize" all those young, energetic peoples around the world who do such good, productive work so cheaply!

SteveHGood one CarlH...#4775202/07/01; 23:44:53

http://www.gold.org/Gra/Statistics/Gold_560.gif

Continue with your line of thought. See where it ends. (se the chart)

Nikkei drops below 13,000 for an instant today. Not good.

Black BladeRE: IronHead 02/07/01; 11:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 47686#4775302/08/01; 00:02:23

Regarding mine closures. In the US, mines usually aren't simply closed, but put on "care and maintenance", where they are still considered active mines that are temporarily shut down. The mine in the state of Washington that is jointly owned by Battle Mountain Gold (now Newmont) and Crown Resources (?) now faces an interesting challenge since they passed all environmental and regulatory hurdles, they now are forced into another review because of lawsuits brought by some environmentalists organization. In the end, the mine will go into production or the state of Washington (read taxpayers) will pay the costs incurred by the mine as it will constitute "illegal taking" under the law. The only possible losers here are the jobs lost and the payout from the Washington state taxpayer. Similar action is underway in the state of Montana where an initiative was passed to ban the use of cyanide heap leaching. This was an effort to stop the Seven-up Pete Venture/McDonald Project near Lincoln, Montana. The same lawsuits are under way and the mining company (Canyon Resources) will very likely win and the only losers again will be the lost jobs and the taxpayer. Environmentalism is in "fashion" now. However, it is expensive being "fashionable."
SteveHCheck this one out...deflation caused by gold price...#4775402/08/01; 00:07:44

http://www.polyconomics.com/

See the Mexico article at bottom too.
Black BladeCalifornia's Power Crisis: A Warning to All #477552/8/2001; 0:22:11

http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=10435

Michael T. Klare, Pacific News Service
February 6, 2001
California's continuing power crisis has been widely blamed on a failed deregulation process -- along with a regional water shortage (reducing the flow to hydroelectric generators) and an unusually high number of plants undergoing repairs. These factors do indeed bear considerable responsibility for the crisis. But there is another, deeper cause at work -- an insatiable demand for energy that no combination of technology and regulation can meet.

Spurred by a strong economy and the spectacular expansion of the Internet, electricity consumption in the United States has been growing at a heady pace -- up nearly one-fourth between 1990 and 2000, according to the Department of Energy (DoE). The added amount -- some 660 billion kilowatt hours -- is equivalent to the combined current consumption of Canada and Mexico. California, with its large cities, suburbs, and computer industries, has accounted for a significant share of this increase. Nationwide demand for electricity will likely continue to grow in the years ahead. Between now and 2020, the DoE predicts, U.S. consumption will grow by another 1,000 billion kilowatt hours -- the total current consumption of China. Of course, other industrialized and industrializing nations will also be expanding their electricity consumption over the next two decades -- in some cases, at rates much greater than those in the United States.

What is more, the growing demand for electricity is only one facet of the worldwide thirst for energy. All over the globe, people are buying new cars and appliances, driving greater distances, and using computers for an ever-wider range of functions. As a result, global consumption of all types of energy -- oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear power -- will grow by 50 percent over the next twenty years. This will require an unprecedented increase in production of primary energy supplies. Oil production, for example, will have to rise from 77 to 110 million barrels per day, while natural gas production will have to almost double.

Even with massive investments in new oil wells, gas fields, coal mines, dams, nuclear reactors, refineries, pipelines, power plants, and electrical grids, it is not clear that we can develop the necessary infrastructure. As California demonstrates, a wide range of political, economic, and environmental roadblocks stand in the way of rapid infrastructure growth. A new regulatory environment could eliminate some of these roadblocks, but not all of them. In short, attaining a 50-percent increase in worldwide energy production over the next 20 years is probably beyond human capacity.

President Bush seeks to overcome this dilemma by digging for oil in national wilderness areas and by increasing domestic coal production. No doubt we will also hear more about the benefits of nuclear power generation, despite the fact that no solution has yet been found to the problem of storing highly radioactive wastes. But all such measures will not satisfy the nation's ever-growing demand. In this sense, the blackouts and shortages now being experienced in California provide a foretaste of the years to come. Ultimately, reforming the regulatory system and building new power plants will not solve the energy crisis. Sooner or later we will be forced to adopt a different strategy altogether. Only by slowing the growth in demand can we hope to find a lasting solution to the problem. President Bush should be speaking about energy conservation and the development of super-efficient technologies, tax savings and other economic incentives to households and companies that significantly reduce energy use -- and higher rates for those that fail to do so. Applied judiciously, measures of this sort can lower demand to sustainable levels.
For now, California's leaders must concentrate on meeting the state's basic requirements. Once the immediate crisis has been overcome, however, the priority should be switched to demand reduction and the development of energy-saving technologies. By suffering now, California can spare us all from an even greater crisis in the future if it elects to lead the way in forging a new, sustainable energy strategy


Black Blade: The disease of Grasshopperism has spread to the point of no return. The current energy crisis will only continue to spread and take a toll on corporate earnings. The lack of sufficient energy will also cap growth and eventually add to recessionary pressures. It is getting ugly, yet the talking heads can only bleat "Buy the Dips!" and "Don't Look and Maybe it Will Go Away!" An analyst named Michelle Girard (ING Barings?) said that people should not talk about recession and that even talking about the possibility could be a "self-fulfilling prophecy." Well miss Girard, should we just bury our heads in the sand? We are already in a recession and it is going to get much more severe! There is no alternative what-so-ever, it is a "done-deal!" Energy is the trigger and the trigger has been pulled. The smoke is just becoming apparent to some observant individuals.

Black BladeOil Climbs As Weather Disrupts Supply #477562/8/2001; 0:31:08

February 6, 2001
LONDON (Reuters) via NewsEdge Corporation -

Oil prices firmed on Tuesday as freezing weather disrupted output in the North Sea and Venezuela said it preferred to see prices in the upper half of OPEC's target range. Prices eased earlier after the oil minister of OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia said on Monday there was no need for further output cuts since current crude prices were reasonable. Brent crude was up 39 cents at $28.84 but remains below last week's 10-week peak of $29.20. Prices have rallied over the past few weeks from a low of $22.90 seen just before Christmas. Freezing weather in the North Sea has forced the shut-in of close to 600,000 barrels per day of Norwegian oil production and is hemming in another 470,000 bpd of UK output, operators said. Temperatures, which fell far below freezing over the weekend, were up close to zero Celsius on Tuesday, raising hopes that output would resume later in the day for Norway's platforms, which had shut in 400,000 bpd worth on Monday. ``The market is still nervous about supply,'' said Glen Murray of brokers Azur in France. Stormy weather in eastern United States was also supportive despite forecasts for warmer temperatures later this week. Venezuelan Energy and Mines Minister Alvaro Silva said on Tuesday he prefers a price between $25 and $28 a barrel for OPEC's crude oil reference basket as anything below that causes ''problems'' for the 11-member cartel. ``The official band is still between $22 and 28 but we have noticed that it can be between $25 and $28 without causing disturbances (to the world economy). Below $25 it causes problems for the countries (of OPEC),'' he told a news briefing. ``Consumers say they are happy with $25 a barrel and $28 is perfectly able to be assimilated by the world economy,'' he said. Dealers said buying of inter-month spreads helped lift afternoon prices but are awaiting fuel stocks figures from the U. S. due later on Tuesday for a fresh sign of market direction. Last week the figures showed a big build in stocks and sparked fears that an economic slowdown in the world's biggest consumer may be beginning to take its toll on fuel demand.


OPEC'S GAMBLE WITH RECESSION

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut supplies by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from February 1 to avoid a glut during the second quarter when winter demand wanes. Non-OPEC Norway and Mexico have worked closely with OPEC to stabilize world oil prices since 1998, when prices fell to about $10 a barrel. Norway has said it would not restrain its output while Mexico's Martens said on Monday there is ``an excellent balance between supply and demand.'' Dealers said they saw little fundamental reason for last week's rally and some believe a gloomy economic outlook in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, may undermine demand later this year and weaken OPEC's grip on the markets. OPEC officials have vowed to defend oil prices with further production cuts should prices fall below the group's target range of $22 to $28 a barrel. The cartel will meet to review the market on March 16. ``OPEC is playing a dangerous game, keeping prices this high in a recessionary environment. At some point it will backfire,'' said Nigel Saperia of independent oil trader Glencore in London. By putting a ``floor'' under the oil market, OPEC is ``giving everybody in the exploration world a free ride'' and it may also ''encourage cheating'' among cartel members, he said. Given the high crude price, oil companies may devote more of their budgets to explore for oil in areas that otherwise may not have made economic sense. Erratic crude exports from Iraq have also helped support prices. The flow of Iraqi crude exports remains clouded by uncertainty with many traders doubtful Baghdad will meet a self-imposed target of two million bpd for February. Exports ran as high as 2.3 million bpd last year but fell in January to below one million bpd following Iraq's demand that clients pay an oil surcharge fee. Diplomats at the United Nations, which approves and monitors Iraqi oil sales under sanctions imposed after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, said on Friday that Iraq had asked the U.N. to lower prices for some crude shipments this month. The expected approval of revisions to Iraqi crude oil prices for February shipments was delayed 24 hours to Tuesday, U.N. officials said. There was a brief lull in Iraqi exports on Tuesday with both export ports idle but an expected resumption of activity in the coming days, industry sources said.


Black Blade: It will not take much to knock down inventories and weather is just one variable. Rumor is that Saddam is up to his old tricks again. Maybe he is trying to "fake-out" OPEC wil on-again and off-again oil production. This week Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan President (dictator?) has stated that there will be no return to lower oil prices. Looks like we are headed for "Interesting Times." Better stock up on basic needs and PM portfolio protection. Storm clouds are forming over the horizon.

BelgianIndaba 2001 - Williams K. ( Anglogold )#477572/8/2001; 0:57:22

Note particularly Williams' dismissal of GATA:

"Forget for the moment about the notion of a
conspiracy against gold, and worldwide plots
between central bankers here, there, and
everywhere. We face a physical overhang of
metal, and if we don't keep the physical markets
healthy, we might all face a less happy long-term
future in gold."

Dear,dear, Mister Williams : " physical overhang "...well, well, well. Open your book...give us the names of the good, the bad and the ugly "overhangers" !! We have to forget the conspiracy...so, you didn't say there was "no" conspiracy ?
If you fear some unpleasant GATA_INDUCED, things to come,
why don't you just explain us what is going on with that mysterious "OVERHANG". Is this so-o-o-o-ohhhh difficult ?

Please, if your masters should decide to enlighten us...please, don't hide behind your ,classic, WGC statistics.
Wouldn't it be much simplier to know "WHO" and "WHY" goldsellers, want to get rid of their long builded reserves ? What is the purpose of giving them a reasonable price for something they never intend to buy back ? Wouldn't it be better to let POG implode and give us the opportunity to accumulate the precious waste ! Amputate with a sharpened axe and in one go ! Or do the producers want to cover first with massive hedging ? Distribute the gold to the masses at give away prices and let's start it all over again.

We know, you know much more than we do. Tell us !

SHIFTYCatalytic convertors contribute to pollution-magazine #477582/8/2001; 1:58:26

http://news.altavista.com/scripts/editorial.dll?ei=2381951&ern=y

02/07/01


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Instead of helping to clean up the environment, catalytic converters used on car exhausts are adding to pollution, a science magazine said on Wednesday.
Researchers have found metal from converters in remote areas of Greenland proving, they say, that it is a global problem.

``It's not just close to the cities and highways,'' Carlo Barbante, a chemist at the University of Venice, Italy, told New Scientist magazine.



Catalytic converters convert pollutant gases into less noxious products. The platinum, palladium and rhodium in the coverters fitted to cars catalyse reactions that convert hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides.

Barbante and his team measured concentrations of the metals in ice and snow cores from Greenland dating from 1969 to 1988 and from 1991-1995.

After comparing the cores to samples dating back 7,500 years, they found that concentrations of the metals had been increasing since 1976.

``Rhodium levels are already 120 times higher than in the 7,500-year-old ice. Palladium and platinum levels have increased 80 and 40-fold respectively,'' according to the magazine.

Barbante said the ratios they uncovered were similar to car exhausts found in another study, which suggests the metals originated from catalytic converters.

End

$hifty

Black BladeRE: SHIFTY#477592/8/2001; 2:13:48

http://www.acitravel.co.za/main.asp?conf_id=2

So now PGMs are considered "pollutants?" It makes one consider the gold catalyst program as being cleaner as gold is essentially non-reactive. Then they would take ice core samples a few years from now and either say gold is a "pollutant", or "Hey guys!, let's mine the ice!" ;-)
Black BladePalladium supply on brink of severe disruption#477602/8/2001; 2:35:51

http://www.mips1.net/MGPlat.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D653852569EC006906C5?OpenDocument

These guys just discovered that the Russkies don't have any PGM stockpiles left. Where have these guys been?
DaveCPlatinum's future secure in PC industry#477612/8/2001; 4:16:26

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/l1922100_2.html

Platinum's future secure in PC industry
By Sara Marani

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The ever expanding drive for greater memory within ever smaller spaces in computers is raising demand for platinum as a vital component in hard disks despite the highest prices for the precious metal in 13 years.

``Last year 90 percent of all hard disks produced had platinum. In 1998 that was just 50 percent,'' said Jeremy Coombes, marketing managing director at precious metals refiner Johnson Matthey (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: JMAT.L).

Computer manufacturers such as U.S. giant IBM (NYSE:IBM - news) are constantly striving for smaller and faster disks and a platinum and cobalt alloy is a key element for improving data storage capacity.

IBM expects data density (bits/unit area) to double every year -- a pace the company sees continuing for several more years, at least until densities of 100 billion gigabits per square inch are reached. That is about five times today's top density in products.

TopazIronHead#477622/8/2001; 4:18:38

...and a Hi back to you IronHead,
Aussie enviro-sentiment has been placated to a large degree in recent years. (exception Neuclear issues)
Since the "invention" of the EIS, (an in-house funded "enviromental impact statement") Ozzies in general have little interest in these issues, unless of course they are directly enviro-affected. (I'm allright Jack revisited)
The G-O at the moment is large scale open-pit operations in the 5-15g/Ton range and most of these are "remote" from prying eyes. Laws are in place to ensure "self-regulation" is adhered to.
There is full-on support at a Gov't level for Resource development of all types and no doubt, "backs are turned" regularly.
It's a pity these "start-up's" make a beeline for the Bullion Banks to forward 600 odd % of their annual production to crank up operations though.

DaveCZinc-oxygen batteries get a charge out of air#477632/8/2001; 4:22:56

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/l24526755_2.html

Zinc-oxygen batteries get a charge out of air
By Niala Boodhoo

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - A battery that creates energy out of thin air may give traditional nickel and lithium-ion powered devices a run for their money.

Zinc-air batteries, in which zinc reacts with oxygen to produce energy, are cheaper than traditional batteries.

They also produce from between two and four times as much energy. Producers say they are safer because they lack certain chemicals that could be explosive.

``Even with a completely dead battery, you can talk and charge at the same time,'' said George Hopmeier, U.K. managing director for Israel-based Electric Fuel Corp (NasdaqNM:EFCX - news), a producer of zinc-air batteries.

Destined principally for use in the fast-growing mobile phone sector, Electric Fuel produces single-use, zinc-air batteries for mobile phones. One of its standard zinc-air batteries has a talk time of between 10 and 17 hours, compared with three to five hours using a lithium-ion battery.

The battery lasts for about 300 hours on stand-by compared with 60 to 85 hours with lithium.

DaveCUse of Metals?#477642/8/2001; 4:26:04

Platinum disk drives.
Zinc batteries.
Gold catalytic converters.

No wonder Jim Rogers says this will be the decade of raw materials.

LeSinTest#477652/8/2001; 4:33:31

test
PandagoldBelgium and All#477662/8/2001; 4:35:09

This is the question we all want to know - who is buying all this 'crappy yellow stuff' - this barbaric relic, that there is so much of, and nobody seems to want or have a good word for?

Even WGC, or any source only tells us that such and such country imported so much. But the real buyers, we know, do it through various channels (countries), that hide the real purchasers.

Why is the media so concerted in its efforts to let everyone know who sold a load - but never who bought it?

To me, these are more or less rhetorical questions, but I would like see some 'authority' confirm them, or, at least,
the media ask them.

PandagoldProbably the most important question#477672/8/2001; 4:46:43

I left off probably the most important question - AND WHY ON EARTH ARE THEY BUYING IT - EVEN AT THESE PRICES?
Pandagoldon a lighter note#477682/8/2001; 4:54:22

Vacuum cleaner salesman pitched mining company stocks to elderly investors

VANCOUVER, Feb. 7 /CNW/ - Two men who allegedly convinced 11 elderly investors to put more than $148,000 into a mining company have been ordered to
appear before a British Columbia Securities Commission panel

I SUPPOSE YOU COULD SAY - HE 'SUCKERED' THEM INTO IT. I GUESS HE QUIT ONLY WHEN HE HAD THEM ALL IN THE BAG?

PandagoldFOR 'HE' READ 'THEY'#477692/8/2001; 4:57:01

slight adjustment
TopazGeneral---Belgian#477702/8/2001; 5:04:53

Theres an issue here I consider VERY relevant. Security/Storage/Secrecy of Large Gold holdings as opposed to Small.
I believe we (as small purchasers/holders of metal) are in an envious position vis-a-vis large holders.
We can acquire $10Mil Au (I wish!) and hide it in the proverbial shoebox (or 2) however large amounts stick out like a sore thumb. As such they gravitate to "facilities" for same.
As these facilities are (in)directly related to the PTB, not only are you up for storage fees, you also have to live with the fact that "maybe" your stash has been misappropriated/paperised in the grand Fiat adventure.
Also one can confidently assume most large hoards are privately accounted for and are common knowledge in the Circle.
OK, a Gates, Soros etc cannot enter this domain (Safra) and are reduced to coat-tailing with (paper) Silver - while we can merrily accumulate in dribs and drabs to our hearts content, YES?

Topazfurther....#477712/8/2001; 5:17:07

If below is anywhere near reality, doesn't your heart go out to Bill, George etc....
.....Poor Buggers!!

TopazDaveC#477722/8/2001; 5:23:14

Dave, you forgot (Normandys) DeCrespigny's grand plan to resurrect the Au industry - sell it by the molecule for medical applications....Yeh right!
barnacle billPandagold Msg#47766#477732/8/2001; 5:26:08

Belgium and All

I havn't looked into it at any great depth, but I've been reading that the historic users; Saudis, India, China have been buying it. These people know a bargain when they see one.
What has me stumped is that a lot of the mining companies are still short. If you were CEO of a mining company, wouldn't you have bought back your shorts by now?

Maybe the PTB have told them that there is more downside coming?

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeDaveC,.....precious metals usage#477742/8/2001; 6:03:38

Thanks for the info!
DaveCTopaz, SLATT#477752/8/2001; 6:19:40

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/010206/ca_homesta.html

Topaz: Au by the molecule? I guess I missed that one. Info overload.

SLATT, you are welcome.

I scan the Yahoo headlines a couple of times a day. I notice a lot of "negatice slanting" headlines. But you can dig and find things like this:

Tuesday Homestake announced a record quarter.
Fourth quarter 2000 summary: - Net income of $5.2 million, compared to net income of $4.0 million for the corresponding 1999 period. Net income per share remained unchanged at $0.02. - Cash flow from operations of $32.6 million, compared to $17.2 million in the fourth quarter of 1999. - Total attributable gold production at an all-time Company record of 589,100 ounces, 48,200 ounces more than in the fourth quarter of 1999. - Average cash cost of $168 per ounce, $20 per ounce lower than in the same quarter of 1999. - Attributable proven and probable gold reserves at December 31, 2000 of 20.8 million ounces, 11% higher than a year earlier.

Then ther's this from Newmont yesterday:
Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM - news), North America's biggest gold mining company, said on Wednesday its fourth-quarter earnings fell as a stagnant gold price and rising energy costs hit the company hard.

Newmont, which has operations in the United States, Mexico, Peru, Russia and Indonesia, reported earnings of $19.7 million, or 12 cents a share, on revenues of $476.8 million. In the year-earlier quarter it reported a profit of $46.8 million, or 28 cents a share, on revenues of $430.5 million.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010207/cx.html

I'll have to look into this Au "by the molecule" idea.
Next it will be "air by the breath."
BTUN tax - Breathing Thru Ur Nose Tax.

Trail GuideComment#477762/8/2001; 6:23:19

http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

I will have time later today for several comments. One, in particular, is to point out MK's observations on his Live News Feed Page (see link).

Also note this item from the same feed:

Japan's Economy Contracts
Revised Quarterly Figures Confirm Recovery Has Stalled

-----
TOKYO, Feb. 8 (Thursday) -- The Japanese government said today that the nation's economy contracted by an annualized rate of 2.4 percent during the July-September quarter of last year, confirming fears that recovery has stalled ---------------------- Today's forecast may also force
Bush administration officials to rethink their promise to forswear badgering Japanese policymakers about how they manage their economy.----------

TrailGuide

PandagoldBarnacle Bill#477772/8/2001; 6:39:22

Yes, you would (mining companies buying back and the rest of the sordid scenario), if this 'financial world' performed as a 'free market,' all transparent, 'above board' system run by men of integrity with the welfare of the common man (oo-oo-ps and woman) at the forefront of their. endeavours.

But even where small amounts of money are concerned, even within families, we get devious goings on. Are we really that naive we can expect it when such high stakes on a grand plain are concerned?

I suppose we want to grow up, yet still cling to our childhood beliefs - Santa and toothfairies etc. We are just big kids at heart and don't like accept the realities of this bag bad world.

Now lets see, shall I go put on my "Bambi" video, or play on my rocking horse.

PandagoldNow why are they rushing this through, I wonder?#477782/8/2001; 6:47:51

Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
_____Business Live Online_____

• Noon ET: Live discussion of gun locks with Post reporter Caroline Mayer, Bill Brassard Jr. of Project Home Safe and Laurence Keane of the National Shooting Sports Foundation. Submit questions now.




_____Updated News_____

• Business
• Washtech.com




_____Web Special_____

• Keep track of the profits with the Earnings Watch Special Report.





E-Mail This Article

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By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01




Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

PandagoldNow why are they rushing this through, I wonder?#477792/8/2001; 6:49:20

Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
_____Business Live Online_____

• Noon ET: Live discussion of gun locks with Post reporter Caroline Mayer, Bill Brassard Jr. of Project Home Safe and Laurence Keane of the National Shooting Sports Foundation. Submit questions now.




_____Updated News_____

• Business
• Washtech.com




_____Web Special_____

• Keep track of the profits with the Earnings Watch Special Report.





E-Mail This Article

Printer-Friendly Version

Subscribe to The Post





By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01




Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

Pandagold SORRY: Now why are they rushing this through, I wonder?#477802/8/2001; 6:52:33

SORRY, THIS IS HOW IT SHOULD READ. HAVING PROBLEMS WITH EYESIGHT, AND PC


Bankruptcy Bill Put on Fast Track
Republicans Say Law Would Curb Abuses
By Kathleen Day
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 8, 2001; Page E01

Sweeping bankruptcy legislation that would make it harder for consumers to wipe out debts in court is on a fast track in Congress, where Republican leaders hope to quickly push through the same measure vetoed at the end of the Clinton presidency.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeBlack Blade,........Disease of Grasshopperism#477812/8/2001; 7:11:01

You post early and it makes it difficult to eat breakfast while I'm laughing so hard! The "talking heads bleat" is a nice touch too!

It is frustrating to see what has happened to Kalifornia. Frustrating in so many areas , though I will limit this to the environmental movement. They all read Silent Spring. If they read Cadillac Desert, it conveniently doesn't apply to them! The shear stupidity is breathtaking. Southern Kalifornia is a desert, yet that is where most choose to live. People need water, so do their swimming pools, so do crops grown in the desert, etc. Yet providing the necessary infrastructure to provide the water (or power, or roads etc.) meets with fanatical opposition that has found itself to date firmly entrenched politically, academically and increasingly culturally.

Yet the doors are wide open for more to move into their desert, and the thought of pulling back on the famous lifestyle (for the poor this may just be limited to enjoying the "mild" climate) is never considered. A true plague of locusts! Of greater consequence to the rest of the nation where there is enough water to support the population is the insane environmental regs promulgated in Kalifornia and through swinging their political and celebrity broadswords finds its way into law elsewhere.

Earthquakes, mudslides, wild brush fires, flash floods, temperature inversion induced smog, urban sprawl, runaway taxation, the ever increasing need for welfare programs, and now rolling blackouts!

The problem rests with the people. Too many people. Too many selfish people. Too many naive and overly impressionable people. When they finally wake up to the economic realities of the world, they sell their house for a overly inflated price and move elsewhere. Unfortunately many bring their bad habits with them, and the same environmental/political ideology is thus transmitted like a goofy, expensive, socialist virus.

If only there was a Howard Jarvis in Kalifornia today! (Imagine a Howard Jarvis promoting the gold standard!) Perhaps there is and the media suppresses their voice. A voice of common sense coupled with addressing the root cause of their problem, overpopulation and a lifestyle the environment and economy cannot support, needs to come to the fore.

PandagoldGoing down with his ship?#477822/8/2001; 7:34:50

In spite of how one may personally feel about what Greenspan is doing, I believe the man is no idiot. He is well versed in both Academic theory of economics, real world economics, and accountancy.

There is also a wealth of voiced feeling, in high places, that the man is doing fine job (though, for whom, we are not quite sure).

Of course, everyone could have said that about Captain Smith, just before it struck the Iceberg. And probably until some time after it had hit the iceberg, because no one could accept this fine, huge ship could really go down.

Well, Captain Smith was an old hand, and was overdue for retirement. He probably didn't shorten his life by very much by going down with the ship. Maybe he went down with a smile on his face as he was facing an honourable death that befits a man of naval tradition.

Now, how old is Greenspan? And why does he have that smile on his face?

Tree in the ForestJMB, R Powell, Journeyman, Ross L and anyone else following this#477832/8/2001; 7:44:24

Please excuse me. My last post was late at night and I was thinking very fuzzily. Yes the 4897 stoppers are for February. Just 150 contracts still open in the near month. The problem is that only some 90,000 oz of gold are eligible, not enough to cover their contracts. They will have to "convince" someone else to sell them gold, probably from their registered pile by the end of Feb. You are quite correct Rich. The question is indeed "at what price?". We shall see. They better hope that the vast majority of April contracts get rolled over. Either that or they can get a pick and shovel and start digging! For gold that is. You are also right about delivery. Delivery is you roll up a truck to one of there warehouses and take delivery. If you don't, they charge you storage fees like any warehouse would. Sometimes, if the price is still rising, it pays for a trader to actually store product that way. FOA has said that contracts would be honored but whose contracts? "Oils" contracts for sure. Wouldn't want to tick them off. But the sheeples? Ha! Besides, "oils" contracts maybe OTC, not a standard contract. Later.
PandagoldTaking its toll#477842/8/2001; 8:17:31

I have noticed a number of silly little errors made by me today (and other days). In my last post - going down with his ship. I use the word 'both' then go on to mention three items. I won't highlight the others, some of which I corrected.

I can only surmise that this constant battle in the daily 'gold arena' in which I have staked so much time, energy, and money, is beginning to take its toll.

I wouldn't mind if we could get a little volatility, in fact, that is what I counted on, not a rocket surge upwards.

But watching grass grow is for cows. Moo-oo

sstinsAmerica's gold is safe in KY ???#477852/8/2001; 9:24:20

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/p/nm/20010131/ts/imdf07662.html

We take all kinds of paper in KY.
JMBGoldman Sachs#477862/8/2001; 9:35:08

Only 20 delivery notices today at Comex for the Feb. Gold contract. Our fun loving friends stopped 4 of them.

TREE in THE FOREST: "...they can get a pick and shovel and start digging." That's a good one. However, they could call MK....he MIGHT deal with them in a pinch.

Sierra MadreJMB...COULD YOU CLARIFY?#477872/8/2001; 9:45:57

I have noticed that you post data which is probably interesting; however, you write in a kind of code - lingo familiar to traders, not to the rest of us.

What do you mean by "our friends stopped 4 of them" (delivery notices for February)?

What is particularly interesting about the actions of "our friends"? WHO are you referring to, anyway? Is four a lot, or a little? What is "stopping" a delivery notice?

I would appreciate clarification, and if you would spell everything out as for a 12-year-old, in future posts, it would be very helpful. Excuse my ignorance! I do want to learn.

Sierra.

Gandalf the WhiteLINKS please Pandagold !#477882/8/2001; 9:58:09

PANDA ---THIS IT THE LINK area for your use !

Pandagold (2/8/2001; 4:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 47768)
on a lighter note
Vacuum cleaner salesman pitched mining company stocks to elderly investors
VANCOUVER, Feb. 7 /CNW/ - Two men who allegedly convinced 11 elderly investors to put more than $148,000 into a mining company have been ordered to
appear before a British Columbia Securities Commission panel
********It is not that the Hobbits do not believe EVERYTHING that you say and do, Panda, it is just that they would like to see more on this items that you toss about ! PLEASE PLEASE link you items !
<;-)

Randy (@ The Tower)Wading through ankle-deep currency...Fed adds more to banking reserves#477892/8/2001; 9:59:43

Following yesterday's five-and-a-half billion dollar add via 15 day repos, the Fed's Account Manager again today took action in open market operations. Twice. And at the time, the fed funds market was trading nicely near the 5.5% target. (It doesn't take Davey Crockett to see what is afoot by these tracks in the winter snow.)

First was a $2.015 billion add via 28-day repurchase agreements, followed shortly thereafter by an additional $1.75 billion operation with overnight repos.

Later today we should have the Fed's report on the latest measurements of the aggregate money supply.
"How high's the currency, Momma?"
"Well, it's past your ankles and risin'!"

LafisrapRandy msg#: 47789)#477902/8/2001; 10:18:42

Randy posted:
***
Following yesterday's five-and-a-half billion dollar add via 15 day repos, the Fed's Account Manager again today took action in open market operations. Twice. And at the time, the fed funds market was trading nicely near the 5.5% target. (It doesn't take Davey Crockett to see what is afoot by these tracks in the winter snow.) First was a $2.015 billion add via 28-day repurchase agreements, followed shortly thereafter by an additional $1.75 billion operation with overnight repos.
***

Thanks Randy. Perhaps you will explain the meaning of these terms:

* 15 day repo
* 28-day repurchase agreement
* overnight repo

For example, what is being "repo"ed? The "repurchase agreements," who is agreeing to what, and what is being repurchased? Was something previously purchased, and now being "repurchased"; thus, a "repurchase?" Who originally purchased what from whom? And when something is "repo"ed overnight, is it just simply returned the next morning, like an automobile reposessed at midnight and returned to the delinquent owner the next day?

You post these Fed repo updates often. And you always seem to imply that they are very significant; however, you have forgotten to show how that is so. Your updates would be much more useful if you were to periodically include an explanation of these special terms listed above.

Thanks,

Lafisrap

tedwdelivery notices#477912/8/2001; 10:19:24

WWW.USA.GOLD

JMB

Explain to us about Goldman Sach stopping delivery notices
and what it means.

Old YellerRevert to the mean#477922/8/2001; 10:34:29

I've been noticing this scenario seems to be appearing more.High tech companies are reaching a plateau in growth terms;the thrill is gone,but the high multiples are not.If the NASDAQ retreats to the mean,it will probably trade between 800 and 1000.

That makes for pretty scary thoughts if this were to occur.Could the dollar derivative structure possibly survive this? The NASDAQ has traded at these or at much higher levels for over two years now.In terms of market cap, this number is immense.There must be huge debt commitments tied to this.

Any thoughts?

PandagoldGondalph the White#477932/8/2001; 11:13:47

Sorry about that but I did not think anyone would be interested in the full article. It was just the humour in the headlines and the thought it provoked that caught my eye.

I picked it up from Kitco News and they picked it up from some Canadian paper.
The surprising thing is, it is not showing now in their list, and I tried to pull it up using their keywords - but no luck. This is so unusual as I always found stuff there I needed to refer to again.

SORRY!

beestingMore on Japan in retrospect and Gold.#477942/8/2001; 11:25:06

The View From the Eyes of the Insignifacant Workers.

As we've discussed already Japan built herself up financially after WWII using labor only, as almost all raw products were imported. Useful products were assembled and exported and foriegn money(mostly American) poured into the country at such a fast pace(20 years) that the Yen appriciated by about 400%. This caused the problem of exports from Japan becoming so expensive to the rest of the world,that no one could afford to buy as much as before.

So, lets examine the causes and what might have been a possible remedy.

The companies of Japan rewarded the workers in every possible way, including buying houses for them and investing for their retirement years.
Much of the investments the way I understand it were U.S. Government debt obligations(T-bills & Bonds). This influx of interest bearing notes got so large($4 Trillion U.S.??) that the annual interest alone on 4 trillion at 6% is $240 billion(if my math is right). So, with this extra interest income coming into the country they could afford to sell products below production costs.This worked for awhile, but other countries(the U.S.)complained their workers couldn't fairly compete on prices for finished products.(automobiles)

You see some of the American workers wages were being consficated thru taxation to pay the debt on the U.S. Govt. debt the Japanese held. Taxation was and is killing the American worker in two ways in this case!

I think Japan,with no natural resources'sees what happened to the U.S. workers and doesn't want the Japanese workers falling into the same debt trap. Thats why almost no interest loans are offered by the Japanese Government, as interest on Gvt. loans is paid off thru taxation of the people.(workers)
****************************
Now, lets present a different scenario. What if the Japanese retirement plans had been investing in physical Gold and the Japanese Government had started minting some Gold to be used by the people and in trade. Yes, over a period of time if there was a trade imbalance the Yen would still go up in value, but they wouldn't have had the benifit of compound interest from their trading partners, and they would have used Gold to purchase raw materials. The people could store or spend their Golden wealth any way they wanted to.The other benifit as I see it is, if Gold was being used on the street, inflation wouldn't have been so great for the Japanese consumer, and they also might get a lot more foriegn tourists to visit.

The bottom line is; The dollar numbers of retirement money for the Japanese workers would not be as great, but the proven value of physical Gold has historically out performed currency as a store of wealth which as we've all seen can be horribly manipulated. It looks like 4 trillion U.S. dollars in earned wealth depends on the stability of the U.S. dollar and the ability of the U.S. Gvt. to collect taxes from the American workers.
Who won WWII???

For Trail Guide, hyperinflation in Japanese; Kwabun fukurasu koto (Superabundance Inflation) (From my Japanese American dictionary.) But, you better ask Sir Ironheads wife if this is correct.
Thank for Reading....beesting.

JMBSierra Madre#477952/8/2001; 11:33:16

http://207.96.251.155/scripts/news/search.pl?headline=comex+delivery

Goldman Sachs has been receiving delivery notices and not retendering them, or throwing them back to the next guy, so to speak. They have been the premier force in the Gold cabal.

Bill Murphy, the Chairman of GATA, has wondered out loud who the first rat would be to jump from the Gold cabal ship. Bill actually predicted that it would be GS. Some of us are excited to see this "possibly" taking place. These guys are the most devious sons-of-bitches in the world but it appears that they see something that indicates that Gold is going higher...soon.

Four contracts are a small number to GS, but scroll to 31 Jan and look at that number. Then check 1 Feb. That's a pretty big number. They have stopped Gold each day. Their percentage of total stops is impressive. I really don't hate the filthy pukes, I just like to call them dirty names. I smile when I do it. But now that they seem to be on our side...they're our buddies.

I've enjoyed reading your posts for some time. You're one of the Giants on this Forum, in my opinion. I hope the above helps a little bit. There are others here who understand this topic much better than me. HELP!

JMBtedw#477962/8/2001; 11:41:11

Hi Ted, I hope it means were all going to get rich:)
and I also hope I've answered your question in my response to Sierra Madre.

Randy (@ The Tower)Consider this... (it will come in useful in later discussion)#477972/8/2001; 12:10:54

Wealth cannot be borrowed into existence.

(If you think it can, then you do not understand the meaning of wealth.)

Free trade involves the uncoerced exchange of quantities of items (goods, services, currency) seen as having equivalent instantaneous values in the eyes of the marketplace.

Now, dwell on this: If four quarters are exchanged for ten dimes, we see an example (albeit frivolous?) of free trade. (Perhaps someone needed exact change for a vending machine?) Where in this trade do we see any manner of "profit"? We don't. In truth, the trade occurred because at least one side was seeking an advantage while the other side, if not also somehow advantaged, at the very least felt his final position to be equivalent as before the trade. Otherwise, that side would not participate, or willingly contributed to "charity".

In a world where "like trades for like", there are no profits, but rather, only ENHANCEMENTS to personal/business advantage through this economical redistribution of goods, services, and monies.

Again, wealth cannot be borrowed into existence. It grows only through time and effort as applied to the goods of earthly life. A candlestick maker, trading his candles for an equivalent value (as seen by the marketplace) in bread from the baker, does so not for unmeasurable "profit", but for the "advantage" (i.e., "well-being") revealed by his personal need for bread beyond his wealth in candles. And correspondingly, likewise for the baker. This is representative of the equal and advantageous trade that occurs at all scales and at all steps, such as for the raw materials needed in the making of candles and bread.

The use of currency merely lubricates the smooth functioning of this system of commerce, but does not change the underlying truth of equivalent trade occurring for the sake of enhancing personal advantage (or "wellness"). The use of currency does, however, allow a degree of quantification (measurement) that misguides many casual thinkers into notions of trading for "profit", when in truth, by definition all trade occurs at instantaneously equivalent value (like for like) and is motivated by the comparative advantage gained from the redistribution of the items being traded.

A thinking person recognizes that currency serves only to lubricate the system of trade by eliminating the inefficient constraints of barter. As it can be borrowed easily into existence, this person knows currency is no manner of wealth. The distinction is subtle but important. This person strives with lifelong effort to accumulate *wealth* for its meaningful role in securing the wellness of being in an ever-changing and uncertain world. But where this "lubricant" is concerned in the course of his life's wealth-building efforts, our thinking person's great understanding results in a desire to accumulate and retain a quantity of currency that does not significantly exceed the needs to facilitate his immediate purchases.

Currency is a contrivance of modern man, and can be borrowed into existence. Wealth cannot.
Wealth must be "built" through effort over time.
Currency is not the goal of production. Wealth is.
Wealth is, loosely, what we call the necessities of life....food, clothing, shelter, energy.
People redistribute wealth through fair equivalent trade to attain advantage (enhance wellness). If you want to measure and call this advantage "profit", then so be it. But recognize this: your "profit" is not in excess or external to the wealth traded for the comparative advantage....unless you are silly enough to keep it in currency form, in which case it is not wealth at all!

This next text was offered a few days ago, and it might now mean more following this background of thought.
-------------
When looking to buy and sell gold versus dollars, moreso than being guided by the motive to make a score in dollar profits, some bright thinkers living in the "here and now" with a mind for "tomorrow" buy gold at every turn for the security advantage not found in the paper dollars representing the equal market price.

As a market participant, when we sell our dollars for gold instead, we trade for this advantage, today. What comes tomorrow, if our thoughts have served us well, is icing on the cake. Lots of icing!

got advantage?
-----------------

Call Centennial. They will help you take advantage of the uniquely advantageous prices currently available through the market's misplaced and temporary confidence in paper gold...(a judgement error as grievous as confusing simple currency with real wealth.)

Randy (@ The Tower)Lafisrap (msg#47790) RE: repos...#4779802/08/01; 12:27:11

http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html

"...what is being "repo"ed? ... You post these Fed repo updates often. ... Your updates would be much more useful if you were to periodically include an explanation of these special terms listed above."

Good question, and thank you for stepping forward. This is truly a fine example were the Hall of Fame might serve its intended purpose...providing easy-to-find archived material for which we may expect to make periodic revisitations.

Click the link above. It should lead you to a post that I see (in hindsight) is somewhat lacking, but should nonetheless deliver the basic understanding being sought. Go to this post listed near the top of the Index:

"TownCrier (11/05/99) -- An Easy Lesson on the Fed's Repo Operations and Banking System Reserves"

PandagoldAustralia & Gold#4779902/08/01; 12:38:17

www.fallstreet.com (Glamorous side to gold)

- BUSINESS


Glamorous side to gold polished up

By Jane Counsel

The Australian gold industry is about to undergo a marketing revolution with moves afoot by industry bodies the Australian Gold Council and the World Gold Council to "rebrand" gold.

With the precious metal no longer seen as a stable investment and facing stiff competition in the fashion stakes the World Gold Council has appointed high profile London advertising agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty to spearhead an international promotional campaign. The Australian Gold Council is also pursuing several initiatives involving the fashion and jewellery industries in an attempt to lift gold's profile.

The growing economic stability of world markets continues to erode the use of gold as an investment. Governments and central banks across the world have been reducing their gold holdings, sending the price into a tailspin.

Since 1989, central bank gold holdings have fallen every year and so has the spot price. In the past five years alone, the price has fallen by more than $US140 an ounce to $US266 an ounce.

The World Gold Council wants to inject some stability into the price by promoting gold's appeal and encouraging demand in the jewellery market. It hopes ad agency BBH will achieve the same success it has had with Levi jeans and Audi car brands.

"We are confident that in BBH we have found an agency that can create highly original and exciting advertising for gold," World Gold Council chief Ms Haruko Fukuda said.

"Although consumption is already increasing around the world this campaign will help stimulate even greater degrees of consumer demand for gold."

Australia is the world's third biggest producer of gold and produces more than 300 tonnes a year, the majority of which is turned into bullion and traded on the international spot market.

Buena Feunder pressure?#4780002/08/01; 12:49:48

Comex p-au is spiking lower............PPT seems like it has been under pressure these last few days to keep nasduck aflot/US banana up........maybe they (BBanks) need profits/margins on short gold positions to offset the wieght of the deflating baloon!
BelgianOverhang....Conspiracy...adult fantasy !!#4780102/08/01; 12:51:26

Yes, non Washington Agreeers, sold and/or are still selling goldreserves ! This was surely unexpected ? Were these, generally poor nations, forced to dollarise ? Was (is) their goldsale a conditio qua non ? The interesting part of the story is not ment for Indaba-ears. And we still are not hinted about the goldseller nations for the next 5 (hedging) years. Do the Indaba boys have a plan of action to counter these disturbing sales ? Yes,! Anglogold urges them to close ailing mines ! They give the good example and sell their (unprofitable) mines to entrepeneurs (Swaenepoel) who are going to dig, eagerly, for more gold on offer. After all, they have to pay back as fast as possible...with increased ...hedging, yes again !
PPPFFFFTTTT...what a logic ! Boring isn't it.

It is the complete irrationnal behaviour of goldproducers and Central Banks, that is a wellcome feeding bottom for conspiracy and other theories.
If the gold, above ground, on offer is so hughe in amount and time...why don't they simply reduce the underground amount, offered ? Is the 1% lease rate so irresistable ?
Is there a possibility of intense intro-spection, at the Indaba conference ?! Is "adult fantasy" an appropiate insult on the right moment ? Are we getting infantilisized ?

Gresham/Sierra/Canuck/Carl/Panda :

Banking crisis : over-papered with you know what fiat.Cfr.
Japanese bankrun of '95. It was '29 revisited with long cues waiting at closed banks, relieved when the trucks of freshlu printed paper arrived !

Supranational financial masters : give me one (1) piece of evidence that secret forces are accumulating gold ! Sorry, IMO, you can't impossibly accumulate large amounts of physical gold without a price-spike. If someone has a clear cut system on this, please feel free to communicate. The goldworld is tooooooo small to be succesfull in such an attempt. Remember what happened sept. '99 !

Bancrupting miners: Anglogold and the majority of its unknown (nominees) shareholders, is not the kind of underdog you can fool around. They have the force to make or break governments. (Ghana and Ashanti)(De Beers and Angola/Liberia/Congo). Let us be realistic.
On top of that...another 100 years of gold exploration-reserves is proven in SA's underground.

Scary Low prices : Low prices are not at all scary for gold-investors and movers ! On the contrary...they adore it.
But if the expressed "OVERHANG" is Known...why entering the market NOW, for the rocket trip to da moon ?
Most probably, they have been focussing on Palladium/Rhodium and Platina. They know the Norilsk boys as their pocket.

Plan : we, as little fish, just have to quess where POG will find his bottom-zone. And continiue to accumulate modestly. It looks as if 261$ is not holding...250$ and...

DaveCPandagold (2/8/2001; 7:34:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 47782)#4780202/08/01; 13:09:10

Pandagold, not only do I agree with you that Easy Al is an idiot, but he is a 74-years-old dangerous idiot.

Here is a quote from Dr Richebacher's newsletter last year. It's one of my favorites:

In the 1970s, "Easy" Al (running his own economic advisory service) stated that he would love to be head of the Fed when the Kondratieff Cycle was due to end in the late 1980s. He was quite sure that he could overcome the deflationary impact of the cycle by injecting sufficient credit (debt) into the system to offset deflation. He ended by saying that should he fail to achieve his objective, there was a chance that when the cycle did end, the resulting depression would be by far the biggest the world has ever known.

He did become head of the Fed. The amount of credit he has pumped into the system has been on a scale never before seen in economic history. So far, he has been successful. In the end, his final statement will prove correct. END

Greenspan thinks he can continue to pump money just at higher costs. He is doomed to fail and go down in history as the best known and most hated fed chairman ever.

PandagoldDaveC and All It's that man again #4780302/08/01; 14:11:29

www.miningweb.com (kitco)

Posted: 2001/02/9 12:00 AM EST
Low gold price shouts for Greenspan's attention

NEW YORK -- Is it my imagination, or is there a resurgence of interest in the gold standard? I'm not talking about theories of a conspiracy to make gold about as valuable as tin, but earnest debate about the need to stabilize the international financial system by fixing it to a neutral commodity.

Gold couldn't be neutral in the 1970s and 1980s because it would have rewarded the Soviet Union and South Africa – the world's primary gold producers at the time – for unacceptable behaviour. Both systems have since been reformed and there is no obvious argument for continuing to rely on the US Federal Reserve to keep the dollar honest.

The dollar's honesty is at the heart of the debate. Its fortunes are a function of American political activity whereas gold has relative independence. It's a commercial bridge between nations without treading on their sovereignty. At the same time it is immune from the stupidity of governments and imposes external discipline. For example, had the dollar remained as good as gold, the US would not have been able to finance the Vietnam War and shift the burden to the rest of the world.

The stop-and-go gyrations of the last few years where successive Asian crises paralleled an unprecedented speculative bubble on Wall Street, seems to be driving dissatisfaction with the dollar as numeraire. Also, don't underestimate the impact of the Nobel Prize for economics awarded to Canadian economist Robert Mundell in 1999.

When the US disconnected the dollar from gold in the late 1960s, Mundell was a lone voice warning of the danger of floating exchange rates. He predicted, in the face of considerable ridicule, that the world would eventually shift back to a gold standard by 1980. He was dead wrong on that account, but his work on gold as an independent monetary marker is remarkably prescient.

Jude Wanniski, one-time editor of the Wall Street Journal and advisor to Ronald Reagan who coined the term "supply side economics" underscored the importance of Mundell's work this week in a note he circulated to subscribers to his Polyconomics site.

Mundell identifies gold as an exact price level indicator independent of the real economy. A declining price can mean only one thing – deflation. Even though gold is no longer a unit of official exchange, Wanniski shows that it still retains its price function.

For example, the change in the gold price from $35 in 1950 to $350 an ounce into the 80s matched precisely a tenfold increase in US national debt. Similarly, homes that cost $10,000 in 1950 increased to $100,000 over the same period. Gold's decline to less than $300 an ounce since 1996 has been matched by rising US budget surpluses.

Wanniski warns that if the US government tolerates gold drifting below $270 an ounce, then we can expect: "a series of declines in corporate earnings, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, until the whole economy is adjusted to the lower gold price. Unless the problem is fixed, it could drag the administration down with it."

In other words, if Greenspan paid attention to gold, he would have realized that excess liquidity was not the problem over the last two years, but quite the reverse. The Fed has been supplying the markets with the wrong medicine because its diagnostic tools are wrong. It was intent on fighting inflation when it was already deceased.

Wanniski argues that interest rates were cut unnecessarily since the inverted yield curve on US Treasuries was already doing its job. By cutting rates, Greenspan caused a contraction on top of deflation which is going to take a mighty effort to undo.

"The contraction part can be overcome by lowering short-term interest rates or cutting marginal income-tax rates and capital-gains taxation. The deflation part of the problem can only be rectified by having the Fed add sufficient liquidity to cause gold to climb back over $300. Otherwise, there will be an slow, grinding, downward adjustment of all dollar prices -- the mirror image of the slow, grinding upward adjustment of all dollar prices that we knew as
the inflation of the 1970s."

Wanniski says the problem can be corrected quickly by stabilizing "the dollar value of international gold reserves (in Fort Knox) at perhaps $300 or $320."

This is not quite a return to the gold standard, which even Mundell now thinks is unachievable in an official sense, but it would be a significant step closer. By the way, Mundell believes gold can "become a non-governmental unit of account and means of payment for ordinary transactions and the Internet. It would then serve as a check on inflationary governments."

Wanniski's wish is unlikely to ever get a serious hearing since Milton Friedman still has such a grip on official economic thinking. He despises gold in the modern context where governments play such a central role in the economy and has advocated the sale of all gold reserves over five years.

"No major country would tolerate the discipline of a real, effective gold standard," Friedman said last year in an interview with Canada's National Post. Indeed, but that just reinforces the point that it is politically undesirable when it may in fact be financially necessary.

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeDaveC,.......check Pandagold's post #47782 again#4780402/08/01; 14:12:05

He stated in reference to AG that ".....I believe the man is no idiot."

AG IMHO has secured himself a sad place in history.

Gandalf the WhiteWOWERS ! Who dumped on SPOT in the last half hour ?#4780502/08/01; 14:19:04

http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/applet.asp?symbols=&mode=

TYPE "gc1j" in the "sym" box, hit return, and look at that !
Send out the sluths !
GS selling those "stops" (calls for delivery) they made on those Feb contracts ?

Gandalf the WhiteOK -- So the April COMEX contract is not SPOT !#4780602/08/01; 14:21:14

But SPOT the dog was the only one that was effected !
<;-(

PandagoldSLATT DaveC#4780702/08/01; 14:25:46

Now before we get into another one of these wild rides. I know exactly what DaveC means. I think (I hope) he knew what I meant. Remember the difference between a terrorist and a freedom fighter is decided by which side of the fence you are sitting on - or something like that.

Greenspan is a nutcase from most of our points of view - though, no doubt a very educated one. But to those he is working for - they don't come any better.

This is why I keep saying you have to understand everything in context and not pick one piece and translate literally.

The same when translating from a foreign language.

As I say, I believe that Dave C was commenting from understanding the essence of the message

Also read my post - going down with his ship

Pheew ( I hope I got in in time)

Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeALL, .....ref. #47803#4780802/08/01; 14:42:34

I have not been able to read much about deflation other than the effects in the US during the Great Depression. The article references the declining POG as proof of deflation. What I do not understand is: How can deflation in a economy as a whole persist if there is no control on the pumping of fiat currency into the system?

I thought the deflation experienced by the US in the 1930s was a result of the strangulation of credit which removed liquidity. I can't see how the politicians could display such discipline with the printing presses, if their constituents were experiencing their real assets plummeting in value by 90%. The last such upheaval brought us the New Deal, and robbed politicians and most voters of any common sense in its continuance. Other than a war that devastates the economies of your competitors (i.e. a "clean" wiping of the slate if you will) how does an economy as large as the US escape systemic true deflation of the 1930s variety or worse?

Randy (@ The Tower)Pick up the real wealth of metal in the shadow of the latest derivatives selloff.#4780902/08/01; 14:47:24

http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

Thanks again to the selling of paper gold during New York trade, metal can be had (while it lasts) at very friendly prices. Centennial's online offer of Swiss Confederatios now reflect this latest gift from NY. Order online, or call the office for access to the complete line of gold available. Get you some!
tgaztec d'oro - article from Le Metropole#4781002/08/01; 15:11:21

A GOOD READ

Worrisome FIG....Productivity, What Productivity ? !!!!
At the end of October 2000, we were discussing the then alarming trend of the Future Inflation Gauge, as it stood then at -2.4% revised for September 2000, down from a high of 14.4% in April. In the space of just 5 months, the FIG had reversed course to by a staggering 16.8 points.

The trend continued, and four months later, the FIG for January 2001 stands at -12.3%, down a whopping 9.9% in just 4 months.

The ECRI said that inflationary pressures in the economy appear to be easing as economic activity continues its downward swing. To the author that is an understatement of a large magnitude. Prices are going to collapse as debt collapses if the FED eases even a little bit of the pressure exerted on the gas pedal of monetary creation.

The ECRI's index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation fell to 112.4 in January from an upwardly revised 114.5 in December. The smoothed annualized growth rate of the index fell to -12.3% in January from -10.0% in December.

The gauge was pulled down in January by slower growth in real estate loans, a drop in purchasing managers reporting slower deliveries and the return of the yield spread to positive territory.

It seems to the author that the economic variables are fluctuating wildly and in a short period of time as a consequence of the failed monetary inflationary policies of the FED. The system is starting to become Unstable and in need of ever increasing quantities of attention and liquidity, as M3 has increased the not insignificant quantity of 210 billion over the last weeks, or 19.6% yearly growth rate.

As we have seen previously, the Personal Savings rate is on a negative downtrend that started about 5 years ago and it stood at -0.8% in December of 2000. That means Americans spent more than they were making. Funny how they started to go down as Mr. Rubin became Treasury Secretary and the stock market started to rocket at the same time following the M3 explosion.

No savings, no available funds for investment. Now, the FED is furiously trying to convince the consumer that they should spend. At least that is what the latest 1% cut in interest rates suggests, and this is confirmed by the comments of Mr. McTeer of the Dallas Fed. They are trying for the consumer to recover a bit of lost confidence with these measures.

But how is the consumer going to spend more if he is already spending more than what he makes ? And what about the sinking Financial Investments in the stock market ? More Debt ? Doesn't that mater ? And the Dollar which is in the verge of a major collapse in purchasing power ?

Meanwhile the strong dollar policy continues to wreak havoc on the external accounts with a huge Trade Deficit. And the Capital account must be turning south now together with the fortunes of the Stock Market.

An Economic System must be able to produce capital, if it is to satisfy the wants and needs of its people. To produce capital, people must be willing to save, which releases resources for use elsewhere. To the economist, saving means the absence of spending, while savings refers to the dollars that become available in the absence of consumption.

Therefore, the author sees a contradiction from the part of the FED. They are trying to arrest Recession, or Depression for that matter, by exacerbating consumer spending, which in turn will assure that our landing is an Impossible one as no savings will be made at all !!!!

Where is the FED going to get the necessary savings now to prop up the economy ? Since they are not being produced internally, perhaps they could be found externally. However, the Stock Market vacuum cleaner is not being too successful lately in bringing foreign savings. So, perhaps they could try to raid some unsuspecting country like South Africa ?

The Weekly Leading Indicator Index, is a composite index made of 7 statistical series that usually turns turns down before real GDP turns down, and turns up before real GDP turns up. The WLI was a disaster during December, with an average growth for the month of -3.7. That would mean, all things being equal, that March or April GDP growth rate would be about 3.7% less than it was in December.

The author has plotted some variables since 1994 to try to predict some trends. In all that time, never have the three variables plotted gone down at the same time, except in Q2 of 1998 and Q4 2000. However, this time it looks as if the trend of Q4 2000 is going to be continued in Q1 2001 and with much steeper falls as compared to 1998.

GDP and FIG have been on a steady down trend since December 1999. Apparently the high values of December can be attributed at least partly to the massive Y2K monetary explosion. However, the Weekly Leading Indicator WLI, joined the FIG and actual GDP trend in October 2000. Too many variables going down at the same time. NAPM, Confidence indicators, you name them. The only indicator left to correct appreciably is the dollar.

In order to try to avoid this from happening, the Cabal is desperately trying to hammer Gold one more time.

Last week, economist Lawrence Kudlow went on the air on CNBC hammering repeatedly that since the price of gold was low it meant that inflation was contained; therefore he argued that the FED had even more room to maneuver with monetary policy and he suggested that they should continue to ease for this reason in the near future.

Then last Tuesday, CNBC went on air again with a lot of Gold commentary, this time suggesting that the price would stay subdued or that it would go down due to increased hedging by some South African mining companies, perhaps encouraged by the fall of the Rand. Apparently, now they are too savvy and comment on the hedging as a matter of fact as they are trying to convince the few out there that know the truth, that it isn't worth it to go against the current.

All that the author can say, is that they were wrong with the Nasdaq, wrong with their calls on Tech and Internet (Cisco for example, or perhaps Etoys, Amazon, etc.) and the "New" Economy. Therefore, they are apt to be wrong in the Gold issue of hedging and its price as they have been wrong about energy. They do not even want to mention GATA or the lawsuit against the Gold Suppressors. It appears that they cannot pinpoint the position of the sun even in broad day-light. They will be wrong about the Dow, the Dollar and Gold. And they will have their excuse, make no mistake about it: An unforeseen "exogenous" event.

Now, let's go back to one of Mr. Greenspan's and the BLS favorite numbers. Labor Productivity can be defined as the rate of growth of output per unit of labor input. Yesterday, Productivity for Q4 was released and it came at 2.4%. Last month we forecasted it would not exceed 2.5%.

Productivity.....the magic word. Even the FED keeps bolstering this myth as in their last Press Release on January 31st, to justify their cut of 50 basis points on interest rates, they said: "The longer-term advances in technology and accompanying gains in productivity, however, exhibit few signs of abating, and these gains, along with the lower interest rates, should support growth of the economy over time".

Well, the author has some news for the reader. We can play and read statistics as well, and we are not buying the FED statement for one minute.

History tells us that the growth of labor productivity has been somewhat uneven. From 1959 to 1973, the labor productivity index increased at an annual compound growth rate of 2.36% a year. From 1974 to 1998, however, the productivity rate averaged only 1.15 % a year, or about half of the previous trend.

Could it be that the higher energy prices, as in the 1973 oil shock, brought on by the dollar collapse as it defaulted on GOLD had anything to do with it ? We have stated on previous essays that productivity and therefore GDP seemed to be Hedonized by the relentless understatement of TRUE Inflation.

And what about the fabulous 2000 productivity figures of 3.6% or 4.3 annualized rate as per the BLS report ? Suspect numbers to say the least....

Because how can they be true if the economy is imploding right now ? Garbage in, Garbage out. Even the 1% cut in interest rates is not working as expected, as banks have tightened their credit standards and it is getting more difficult to get a loan. What is happening is that Banks and Financial Institutions in trouble are being bailed out once more by the increasing spreads.

The current Gas and Oil prices readjustments are no more than the expression of what is wrong in the US economy and the reflection of the policies that are being implemented. Yesterday, oil went up again above $31 per barrel, even though inventories rose by 3 million barrels.

Could it be that the markets are nervous as the North Sea had a shutdown for 1 day of about 1 million barrels a day due to cold weather a couple of days ago ? Or could it be that there are simply too many M3 freshly minted dollars available to pay for it ?

The current Energy Crisis of California will pale to what will be experienced next summer, as air conditioners are put on across the nation. The Final Days of reckoning have arrived and only those prepared and with knowledge will survive.

Go GATA, Go Physical Gold !

"Azteca de Oro"

Randy (@ The Tower)U.S. central bank moves toward euro#4781102/08/01; 15:15:43

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/nat017540.html

HEADLINE: NY Fed says U.S. to diversify euro zone securities

From Reuters---

NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Thursday that U.S. monetary authorities plan to widen their holdings of foreign government securities to include debt issued by euro zone countries other than Germany.
+
Historically, the German mark and the Japanese yen were the only foreign currencies held by U.S. monetary authorities, along with securities issued by Japan and Germany, the world's No. 2 and No. 3 economies after the United States.
+
But given the introduction of the euro in January 1999, authorities plan to reflect a broader spectrum of euro-denominated securities issued by sovereign euro zone nations, the New York Fed said in its quarterly report to Congress.
-----------

From the article, we are told that at the end of the fourth quarter U.S. monetary authorites (Fed and Treasury) held $16.5 billion in yen and $14.75 billion in euros.

((By way of contrast with the U.S., the Eurosystem of Central Banks holds a massive 260.8 billion euro value in foreign currency assets...and an unparalleled quantity of gold assets carried at 118.6 billion euros in value.))

Further, during that past quarter the value of the euros rose while the value of the yen fell. Translated, the dollar depreciated against the euro by 6.4 percent, whereas the dollar rose against the yen by 5.7 percent. Against currencies of our other trading partners, the dollar fell by an average of one percent on a trade-weighted basis.

PandagoldIt may happen quicker than I expected#4781202/08/01; 15:19:21

When I posted my #47044 "Turbulent Year Ahead" I said the odds of what I fear will happen were about 50/50 I now raise the odds 60/40.

A car bomb went off in the Jewish quarter of Jerusalem. The Israelis were dancing in the streets with joy. No one was killed — just a few minor cuts and bruises. (Now I wonder who set that one off?)

Immediately Sharon makes a threatening speech — and that is why they were dancing and singing in the street as they held aloft a supposed piece of the car.

Here is the powder keg if ever there was one.

If trouble does flare up this time, it will inflame the whole region. Now I wonder what the US will do? It presents so many opportunities, and this is what worries me.

The choreography is so predictable, but so professional, and well timed

R PowellSierra Madre, tedw and all#4781302/08/01; 15:22:43

Reading yesterday's discussion from Ross L's #47721 to the end should clarify a good many questions concerning market "stoppers" and "delivery". This discusses some of the workings of the paper gold market.
Also, please note Carl H's #47727 which I believe presents a plausible scenario in which the powers-that-be that have been hammering the POG for so many years might want (and be working toward) to reverse entirely. Imagine the Central and Bullion Banks actively promoting higher prices!? Worth thinking about.
Hope this helps
Rich

Randy (@ The Tower)Give the gift of gold. Any putz can give chocolate and roses.#4781402/08/01; 15:24:55

http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html

And this holds true throughout the year...birthdays, graduations, anniversaries, etc.

But for Valentine's Day specifically (which is next Wednesday), you've got less than two hours to call Marie for timely delivery. Get after it!

R PowellFeds buying Euro debt#4781502/08/01; 15:35:22

Randy

Concerning the Fed's plan "to widen their holdings of foreign government securities to include debt issued by euro countries", is this an increase of holdings or did the Fed not have any euro securities before. Also, is this a Fed policy statement in general or is it specific just to the Reserve Bank of New York?
Do you view this new policy (if that's what it is) coming from a new administration in Washington?
As always, thanks for the daily money supply watch and for all your excellent efforts. I'm reading and learning as best as I can.
Rich

SALMONAbby's right - it's too cold to shop#4781602/08/01; 15:54:30

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010208/c6.html

I was just on my way out the door to test drive a new Bently and happened to notice the outside thermometer was -10 degree Celsius. No way - definitely too cold for a test drive - and as for shopping, that will have to wait until July.
Randy (@ The Tower)Rich, my reply on this euro biz with the Fed#4781702/08/01; 16:08:01

You asked, "is this a Fed policy statement in general or is it specific just to the Reserve Bank of New York?"

The New York Reserve Bank is the single bank designated by the System's Federal Open Market Committee to directly manage the joint System Account with all such operations conducted by the Special Manager for foreign currency on behalf of the 12 Reserve Banks.

You asked, "Do you view this new policy (if that's what it is) coming from a new administration in Washington?"

I see it more than anything else as growing acknowledgement that the euro is here to stay, and further to that end, as acknowledgement that "a euro by any other (legacy) name (e.g. mark, franc, guilder, schilling) is still a euro."

RossLCarl H - your #47727 from yesterday#4781802/08/01; 16:36:41

It's a nice scenario, but I have a different hypothesis for section 4:

The central bankers believe that gold can be held down forever. They are filled with arrogance and hubris, and believe their lies just like Clinton believed his lies. The central bankers believe that a fiat money system based on debt can be controlled if the right buttons are pushed and levers pressed. They believe the lie about the "barbarous relic".

I believe that the fiat debt money system will inevitably fail just like it has every other time in the history of the world. The system requires exponential increases in the money supply to pay the interest on the debt, while the central bank attempts to control the money supply with market interventions are crude and heavy-handed interventions that lack the knowledge that would come from a free market in money.

The market interventions will fail, ultimately, because politics will not allow the bank to contract the money supply for any length of time. The central bank system is an attempt at central planning just like the economies of communist countries are centrally planned.

Sorry for the rant, <grin> but the central bankers will not voluntarily let gold free because their world will crash down if and when it is set free.

Trail GuideI must post tomorrow.#4781902/08/01; 17:58:35

TrailGuide
goldfan@Randy (@ The Tower) msg#: 47720)#4782002/08/01; 18:03:05

Randy (@ The Tower) msg#: 47720)
but "profit"?

Thanks for your many contributions to our understanding of the monster of recording, calculating, and regulatory and trading artifice we have built in our time, which we loosely term economics (what do we "economize", except maybe common sense?).

I've put some quotes from your stuff in>>><<< and my thoughts following.

>>>>I believe as people come to better terms with the meaning of "profit", their enhanced understanding will clarify the important role of gold in their financial lives.

Many people make a big mistake when they buy into the notion that "money makes money". How, by "profits"? What is that, interest or something else?<<<<


Concerning "profit". I have thought that making money on money, that is "usury", maybe in the long run creates more problems than it solves. If a person lends 5 pieces of gold and gets six in return, either he/she has concentrated the gold ownership, which is not a good thing, or , he/she has contributed to inflation, also not a good thing. Its better to gift the five pieces, and get repayment only, when that can occur from a productive investment of the gold. I'm not sure why I believe this, but I note than in a recent piece about ancient economic habits, Trail Guide said the gold pieces were used daily to facilitate trade, not as stores of wealth. Some how I think this is in line with my ideal of a "no interest" economic regime.

Also this bit from a recent post by yourself is also relevant, and a thought I am really attracted to.

>>>A thinking person recognizes that currency serves only to lubricate the system of trade by eliminating the inefficient constraints of barter. As it can be borrowed easily into existence, this person knows currency is no manner of wealth. The distinction is subtle but important. This person strives with lifelong effort to accumulate *wealth* for its meaningful role in securing the wellness of being in an ever-changing and uncertain world. But where this "lubricant" is concerned in the course of his life's wealth-building efforts, our thinking person's great understanding results in a desire to accumulate and retain a quantity of currency that does not significantly exceed the needs to facilitate his immediate purchases.<<<

Economists would never define wealth the way you do. If they did,their discipline, would be seen as no science, they would have nothing out of which to spin their elaborate weavings of theories, no way to extract enormous sums from the universities and governments and corporations who hire them. Out of a job!! O woe!! Have to sharp up the web design skills (Even there, the most widely used tool is named "dreamweaver").

Many years ago a First Nations Elder named Black Elk said that on his first journey as a young man into the white man's great city of New York, he was astonished to find the place absolutely full of people swarming like ants, more than he had ever imagined could exist in one place, all striving to get more than they needed.

To me, this better defines the culture in which I mostly live, than any other single observation. Your thought quoted here echoed Black Elk in my mind.


FWIW

Goldfan

CuriousThe relationship of the price of gold, oil and the dollar and the supply of oil. #4782102/08/01; 19:45:44

HTTP:www.polyconomics.com/

I have been lurking here for several months and this is my first post. I have followed the writings of Another, FOA, Trail Guide and the other fine posters here and thought I was beginning to understand. I had bought the premise that the supply of oil in the ground is declining, production will peak between 2005 and 2010 and energy scarcity will have a major impact on our future. That may be an incorrect premise. I have recently found information in the articles listed below that the United States is the only country where the minerial rights are owned by the surface owner while the government owns the mineral rights in almost every other country. This has a drastic impact on the desire to look for and produce the oil and natural gas that may be there. Future energy supplies here will depend on Mexico. The premise is that Mexico has similar geology to Texas and has vast undiscovered reserves of oil and natural gas that have not been explored, found and exploited. A government agency does not have the incentive, resources, and political will to risk limited resources to find, develop and produce the mineral resources and there may have been a reluctance by foreign investors to risk money there and risk confiscation at a later date. The new Mexican President Vincente Fox appears to be relatively free of corruption compared to previous leaders so the risk may be less now than before.

The main question considering these articles is what is the potential oil and natural gas supply in Mexico, South America and other areas that have not been fully explored? Are these resources waiting to be found or is this premise in error and energy supplies will peak and decline by 2010 according to the Hulbert curve? It will be difficult to accurately project the value of the dollar, the availability and price of oil and natural gas, the price of gold, and the direction that the economy is going (inflation, deflation, stagflation, energy shortages, energy abundance etc.) until this is figured out. If the major players assume that there will be no oil shortages, or if there will be shortages that have not been considered, the predictions and assumptions will be less than reliable.

These comments are based on 3 articles on the Polyconomics site in the above link entitled: Memo on the Margin Getting Energy from Mexico dated February 6, 2001, a related link Supply Side University, Summer Session, Lesson # 8 dated September 3, 1999, and Memo on the Margin The Drag of Monetary Deflation dated February 7, 2001. The author is Jude Wanniski. Is he a reliable writer or does he have a poor grasp of the situation such as may be indicated by his lack of consideration and discussion of the fact that gold prices may be manipulated?

The third article above makes the point that the gold price over time determines the general price level with a similar relationship between oil, gold and the dollar as explained by Another and FOA. The article stated that the gold price -over time- determines the general price level. When it was at $35 per oz. in 1950, a surburban tract home sold for $10,000. When it went to $350, the same tract home sold for $100,000. The average gold price over the last decade is $350. If prices have to adjust to $265, the adjustment will require a series of declines in corporate earnings, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, until the whole economy is adjusted to the lower gold price. It should be noted that this article ignores or does not appear to believe in the premise that the price of gold is manipulated so the whole analysis may be in error for the failure to recognize that things are not as they were.

The middle of the first page of the September 3, 1999 article is an interesting discussion of how future oil prices are established and of the 300 million missing barrels of oil. This may help explain the wide swings in prices.

The availability or nonavailable of significant oil and natural gas in Mexico that could possibly start coming on line in 5 or 10 years could have a substantial impact on fuel and electricity costs in California which will also impact the economy of the remainder of the United States.

I would like to throw this up for discussion on this forum. Are there huge undiscovered oil and natural gas resources in Mexico or is this wishful thinking? Is this availability or nonavailability already factored into the current price of oil, natural gas, gold and the dollar or is it a left field event not yet considered? If true, this could substantially reduce dependence on Middle East oil.

Perhaps Shiek Yamanni, former Oil Minister in Saudi Arabia during the 1973 Oil Crisis was on target when he predicted last fall that oil prices would fall substantially again within the next 5 years to around $10 per barrel? I do not remember the details but I thought it odd that a person with his knowledge, background and former position as an official in Saudia Arabia would make such a statement.

I will be looking forward to responses to these articles as they should generate a lively debate.

Curiousprevious post link did not work. http is not capitalized.#4782202/08/01; 19:59:06

http://www.polyconomics.com

Works better if http is not capitalized.
Mountain TopDon't Look back, something may be following you.#4782302/08/01; 20:13:44

Despite the many parallels between today's economy and 1929 as most ably laid out by many on this forum, most people determinedly elect not to see the perils of repeating those same actions. At the same time, despite the fact that fiat money has precipitated a disaster every single time throughout history that it
has been instituted is completely ignored. I am in awe of the lemming-like attitude of otherwise intelligent and discerning creatures who can will themselves not to look back because it does not fit in with their view of the world. They also refuse to see the precipice they are rushing toward for the same delusional reason. An unbiased glance over the shoulder at what has gone before shows us that gold has been the store of wealth that has bridged human tragedy for millenia.

goldfanThe currency rewards of wealth#4782402/08/01; 20:32:03

In 1970 or thereabouts, I bought some cases of a first growth Bordeaux for $12 per bottle. I see the same growth today, vintage 1996, advertised at $495 per bottle. So my wine, which I count as "wealth" and which I drink on high celebration occasions, has appreciated at the annual rate of 13%. Not bad! But this is just at the replace cost. And I have been offered sums in the neighbourhhood of $1500 per bottle for my wine by a restaurateur friend, so nicely finished and incredibly drinkable as it now is. I have no idea whether this is a fair price, I don't have to go to a restaurant to dine well and need not pay for a 30 year old wine in any case. However, this "market value" has appreciated at the rate of 19% per year!!!

Now in 1970 I would have exchanged about 1/3 oz. of gold per bottle for a wine which today would equate to about 5 oz. gold per bottle. So having stored my gold as wine, without requiring of myself any of the fearful calculations and anxieties of any of the "paper" methods of holding it, I can have, if I choose, 15 oz. of gold for every oz. I laid down then. Never mind that, I get a huge pleasure at drinking up my liquid gold. And I may leave a couple bottles for my children and friends to remember me with.

FWIW

Goldfan

ETDoug Noland#4782502/08/01; 20:34:21

http://www.mcalvany.com/mir.html

A must listen - the credit bubble, energy, equities, the dollar, gold, derivatives, interest rates and more!
Stocks, Lies, and Ticker TapeCurious,.........Mideast Oil#4782602/08/01; 20:37:06

At this point only the depth of the ocean limits those areas for intensive exploration. Also, when the POO reaches $50+ secondary production from spent fields will commence.

When one considers the ability of the Persian Gulf states to manipulate the price of oil, they have their greatest weapon in the price of production. The price of production is as close to nothing as it gets. It is not uncommon for their fields to possess oil columns of over 500 feet. The wells are also pressure driven. It does not get any simpler. Open the spigot. Close the spigot. Only their exercising discipline in limiting income in the short term is needed in order to put strong upward pressure on the POO. If the gulf state members of OPEC tow the line, the world will pay.

R PowellArticle on George Soros#4782702/08/01; 20:41:36

on page 45 of Time Magazine, Feb. 5th 2001 says that George is worried but making money.
"What if we are foolish to be congratulating ourselves on having cured recessions in the same way we once tackled smallpox? Soros, who made a fortune looking for and finding mistakes, worries we are making one now. He picks up on these errors by listening to his money. These days he doesn't like what he hears."
The article says he makes money by spoting mistakes and then capitalizing on them. He sees a big one in the economy now. Wonder where his money is now?
Rich

R PowellE.T.#4782802/08/01; 20:51:21

Written Noland report?

Help! I saw that Doug Noland interview mentioned elsewhere but my computer does not speak. If you know where, if at all, there is a text to access, please post.
This borg-like machine of mine will probably take total control when it learns how to talk. It's evolution is barely under control now. TIA
Rich

SHIFTYWhat's going on?#4782902/08/01; 21:04:06

http://www.artbell.com/mediafiles/goingon.ram

I just saw how gold did today. The link says it all.

$hifty

CanuckGold Producers#4783002/08/01; 21:32:44

Belgian took a friendly, little shot at AngloGold this morning and well I'm going to join in. I think it's a good time to take a few shots at the suppliers.

I'm sure the odd CEO wanders through this site from time to time just to see what the ACCUMULATORS are saying.

I would like to start with Pam Am Silver, yeah, PAA.TO. Your PR people told me that GATA was a 'gold thing', could not support GATA. Your stocks were sold.

Next is Placer; apparently you gave GATA $10,000 then recently, 'were neutral' on the 'Reg Howe' thing. Your stocks were sold.

My only US holding HGMCY, sold this morning due to break of promise 'never to hedge'.

ABX, dear ABX. AS a Canadian I am so proud to call you Canadian, not!!

AngloGold, the monster, number one, numero uno, chasing the S.A. darlings like my friend ABX; covering mon amies??

'THE PRODUCERS', in Feb. 2000 you guys dared the Masters into a 'short covering' rally and you failed. Now you are scared. I will tell you what's scarier, the ACCUMULATORS are wiser today, we pick and peck, and pick and peck at PHYSICAL and soon PHYSICAL will be scarcer and scarcer and one day, all of a sudden there will be NO PHYSICAL LEFT!!

Is this a threat, not by me of course, I'm a little guy scooping a ounce or two at a time. It's the thousands of us that's the issue. It is becoming quite clear that aligning oneself with an entity 'forward sold' NOT LEVERAGED to the imminent upturn in gold is not in one's best interest.

Watch and see, PHYSICAL is where it will be, mon ami.

SO what is your next ingenius step, SIRS? The situation grows urgent, yes? And don't shoot the messanger, I will buy mining stock if it's going up, this is a major predicament for all of us.

Show us 'future guidance'. This is a Y2K compliant rendition of 'show us the money'.

No hard feelings?

Canuck.

Chris PowellMore from South Africa, plus a big article in Afrikaans-language paper#4783102/08/01; 21:50:03

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/648

GATA going right to the top in the
gold capital of the world.


To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

elevator guy@Pandagold#4783202/08/01; 22:17:46

Yes, I also feel as if I am watching a stage show.

A few months back, I gave an opinion that met complete silence, where I stated that before the shorts give up theri positions, there would likely be a war. The foundation of the West, (the Fed), is not going to give up the dollar game which has benefitted them so well, so long.

Before they have to give it up, they will likely cause some war to happen, which will extend the timeframe of the dollar, as a worldwide reserve currency. (thanks, Trail Guide)

They have a lot of tricks up their sleeve yet, and lots of resources at their disposal.

megatronCurious#4783302/08/01; 22:42:47

Jude Wanniski wrote a book called "How the World works" which has a fantastic chapter about Bretton Woods. When you read the book though, you get the overwhelming impression that Mr. Wanniski LOVES GOV'T and LOTS OF IT!! Total central control junkie. Believes in a strange oxymoronic combination of gold standard and protectorate gov't stranglehold over economics(monitarist). Weird guy.
OROCurious - Wanninski's error#4783402/08/01; 22:45:10

Wanninsky is correct in his uderstanding of gold serving as the price guide for real goods and services on the international markets. The problems he does not address are those of disproportionate international debt and interest rate allocations on the one hand, and of the paper gold inflation and deflation cycles.

Thus, while dollar debt in America is serviceable by dollars created through fresh borrowing and by Fed "printing" liquidity, dollars are available abroad only from exports to the US and countries with a net positive financial dollar cash flow (holders of US and other dollar assets) and by creation of fresh dollar credit. There is no "printer of last resort" to replace dead dollars while dollar debt is paid down.

While he is right that the gold price is indicating a strong deflationary aspect of the dollar sector in the internaitonal monetary scene, he does not see the other side of the picture, that of a paper gold inflation ongoing since the dollar went off the gold standard in the progression 1968, 1971 and 1973. Which dates mark the following events, respectively, gold pool closes, dollar debased to 42 per oz instead of 35 and the exchange window closes, and finally, the dollar goes off the gold standard altogether.

Additionally, he does not see that the paper gold inflation is the result of the operation of central banks and is similar to the dollar inflation preceding the crack up of Bretton Woods - the "floating" of the dollar when no further dollars could be issued without a drain of gold reserves that would eliminate the reserves quickly and completely. Just as the gold pool operation drawing down gold reserves was hidden for over a decade, thus the draw down of bank's (and central bank's) reserves ongoing since 1980 is not being addressed by any of Wanninsky's papers.

He does not see the artificial low gold lease rate set by central bankers as causing a gold lending expansion greater than that of the 1920s, and that the gold credit bubble it created - where paper gold assets (both official and "black") have expanded to the point of setting a gold market price devoid of supply and demand effects for the metal itself. A system where dollar-gold contracts have expanded and displaced gold assets held by the global public with paper gold.

As a result of this, he does not see that the paper gold world is undergoing the initial stage of a bank run, where gold reserves are being spent quickly to supply gold for redemption of paper. This while fresh paper gold is still issued for liquidity purposes.

While real world pricing is adjusting to the gold price induced by paper gold inflation, there is a concurrent dollar deflation outside the US, which was strongly exacerbated by the initial Euro expansion displacing the normal dollar expansion, and the inability of the US consumer to absorb the product of new export production capacity in SE Asia, S America, and E Europe at the prices prevailing when the contracts to build this capacity were negotiated, financed (in dollars) and signed.

The main stumbling block to Wanninski's vision is the past paper gold inflation that is below his radar. Had central banks not caused it by supplying gold liquidity to support it, the paper gold bubble would have never occurred, and gold prices could have reflected the actual overall inflation of the dollar as it happened. Another and FOA, join Murphy and Veneroso in warning that the paper gold banking system has become unstable, and we are all awaiting the event of the gold bank run, the day when the last available gold in reserve is tapped and remaining reserves are locked up. When the event happens, no amount of tightening by the Fed will have an effect on the dollar-gold exchange rate, and with gold prices reflecting actual supply and demand at a time when demand for gold to replace defaulted gold paper is higher and supply is limited by low grading practices in the mines, the shock to general prices will be horrendous. Not only in dollar terms.

Randy (@ The Tower)Well, we can see one reason why the Fed might have been so actively adding reserves via repos#4783502/08/01; 22:48:56

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/nat017541.html

A review of the Federal Reserve's latest money supply report for the January 29 week...

We wonder if the $11.7 billion decline we see (which is largely contained within the M2 component of savings and small time deposits (and is therefore also reflected in the M3 decline shown)) represents foreign owned accounts leaving town. It's not so easy to otherwise explain how this specific element of the aggregate measurements can fall off the radar screen as we see happening here.

Quantities are expressed as $ billions

M1 = 1,106.3 . . . down 0.9
M2 = 5,000.2 . . . down 11.7
M3 = 7,194.2 . . . down 14.7

ETRich#4783602/08/01; 22:57:18

Hey Rich P - sorry, I don't think it is available in text. A hundred bucks will get you in the sound biz. RealPlayer is available from the website listed in the previous post. Good luck!

Noland said he expects the credit bubble to burst within a few months but is quick to say he is astounded at the ability of the GSE's to continue to underwrite credit and the Fed's ability to reflate at will. He also said gold is the buy of a lifetime. He likes coins.

DaveCPandagold, SLATT#4783702/08/01; 23:26:26

Reread your post, "is no idiot" and this is what happens when we try to do three things at once.

No wild rides necessary. But no comment on my quote from Dr. Kurt?

Easy Al will be the most hated man in his country and maybe elsewhere. But to the sheeple, it will be for the wrong reasons. It will be for raising interest rates too much on 2000, not for the massive monetary and credit expansion.

LafisrapRandy, RE: repo postings#4783802/08/01; 23:27:31

In case you think it a good idea to include along with your Fed repo postings a short description of what a Fed repo is, here is the start of a short definition. It may need some changes, correction, touch up.

***
A Fed repo is a short-term loan from the Fed to a bank that would not otherwise meet the Federal Reserve requirements for checking/savings/etc. deposits. A repo is somewhat of an emergency loan wherein the Fed accepts collateral for the loan in the form of financial securities, [which are typically of what nature? bundled mortagaes? bundled credit card debt? T bills?]. When the bank is ready to pay back the Fed for the short-term loan, the Fed buys from the bank whatever was put up as collateral and then immediately turns around and sells the collateral back to the bank at a slightly higher price. In this way, the Fed collects its fee for the loan.

tedwThanks#4783902/08/01; 23:37:18

http://www.usagold.com

ET
Thanks for the Noland link

Horatiorepos#478402/9/2001; 0:19:51

I believe the intent of repos is to force the banks to make loans by ropo-sessing the interest bearing securities and forceing cash on the banks.The problem with this is it does nothing for demand ,it lowers the cost of borrowing and encourages more debt on the consumer.Just witness the 4 applications for credit cards I received TODAY!I am pre-approved to go into debt!How comforting to know the Fed has my interest at heart.For those that won't take the Feds bait ,"the Fed is pushing on a string".
Farfel@Canuck re: taking a shot at ANGLOGOLD#478412/9/2001; 0:46:20

Listen my friend, with all due respect, I think you and other concerned gold investors ought to leave the cozy comfort of these gold forums and address your issues directly to the owners/execs of the gold producers/WGC/bullion banks, etc.
In other words, pick up the phone or write an e-mail or whatever, and confront these jokers who have so happily misled and impoverished gold investors with a plethora of pro-gold lies and deceit.

It is pointless to leave messages on these parochial gold forums in the hopes that some senior official from the gold industry will visit and change his anti-gold philosophies.

THEY DON'T HANG OUT HERE WITH THE GOLDBUG WEIRDOS, TRUST ME!

And that is exactly how they feel about their own investors, NOT one scintilla of respect for the "idiots" and "oddballs" who erroneously believe that gold has any role or higher value in this world...and who are stupid and masochistic enough to invest in their own gold companies and get raped and fleeced over and over again.

SO call up the relevant officials at ANGLOGOLD or CHASE or GOLDMAN or DEUTSCHE etc, and give them heat, if you really want them to get the message. If you feel they aren't willing to listen or change their anti-gold policies, then SELL their stocks immediately or move your bank accounts, etc. and invest in pork bellies, amway products, or anything, anything, anything other than gold stocks...and encourage others to stay away from them, now and forever.

Otherwise your posts on these gold forums are little more than sermons to the choir and what good does that do? Or in the case of forums like KITCO, where most of the gold bears happily reside, you are sermonizing to abject village idiots (e.g. Skinny, Goldbuger, Disney, etc) who speak rapturously and admiringly of the "gold hedge banks" whose shares they own, despite their ever decreasing value.

Thanks

F*

OROCurious - A real Economy follow up to Wanninski post#478422/9/2001; 1:19:41

I talked to someone from a cell phone technology supplier to the phone companies. We reached the conclusion that cel rates - now down to 7c/min per additional minute, exclusive of long distance charges, are going to hit 2c, and I suggested that as we approach this, it will pay for wireless companies to start doing unlimited use contracts, which will cause people to replace ground lines – bye-bye baby bells.

Obviously, the investment of some $140 per person per operator, and at a 20% penetration rate (0.8 cell phones per household) one has an investment of $700 per customer per company - which requires at 2c a min some 600-700 hrs per phone in order to recover the investment, about 200 hours at 7c. This brings out the question of debt, that at the initial 10% rate requires $70 of margin per client - or 20 hrs, at current rates, to 70 hrs at the future 2c rate. Granted some will talk 70 hrs per phone per year at 2c, but that will only be enough for 100% margins, which people do not pay. When one considers that most metro areas have 3-5 major suppliers at the $700 per customer range, then the losses that are inevitable become obvious. Even if penetration reaches 40% - at 1.5 phones per household, then the cost to all companies combined is still $1200-1500 per customer for the industry. It is only for the best companies that there would be any payoff. Most will just lose their investment.

Their lenders will lose part of their assets. But more significantly, the economy lost the capital investments in slow growing energy and basic industry that could have been made if the lenders and the cellular companies were not swept by the notion of endless expansion of the cellular customer base and intensity of use.

The slow growing industries have another interesting quality. That while they expand capacity, they employ a greater proportion of their existing capacity. Thus in order to get the effect of expanding by one oil rig, the capacity of say 0.2 oil rigs needs to be used to find the oil and produce the steel, concrete, etc. needed to get the rig in place and producing. Thus the initial result of an energy shortage due to a lack of prior investment is a more extreme energy shortage as exploration proceeds and rigs are built transported and deployed that consume a greater part of the existing output. Thus the malinvestment which created the surplus of cell phone capacity, created the shortage of energy. The result is that households will spend more on energy that they are used to using, while having less to buy cell phone service with. This is true of the rest of the computer and computer services industry, of retail, etc.. Furthermore, while these tech industries suffer loss of sales because their clients are spending (much) more funds on the same energy requirement, and can't raise their prices because of households facing the same problem, the tech companies face higher energy costs as well.

No changes in liquidity will ever have an effect on this structural problem resulting from the monetary system having no limits on liquidity in the past. Now, after the bad investments were made, liquidity is missing. But supplying the liquidity just maintains the weak players in the tech business afloat, not allowing the release of their people and energy consumption for use by the energy business that needs them to find oil, build power plants, build a natural gas pipeline etc.. The credit expansion led GE to become a banking institution instead of investing in capacity for producing electric generation equipment.

Wanninski provides little comment about this problem, as he provides little comment on the massive dollar debt funded export capacity expansion in the emerging markets since the 70s being the main real economy culprit in producing the gold drag downwards (before combining with the financial economy's dollar drag and paper gold explosion).

Wanninski does not see the Bretton Woods system as providing the impetus to the gold exchange fiasco through the full Triffin's dilemma effect (that of exporting currency being a structural requirement for the system to function at all, and that reserve currency interest rates must be higher abroad than at home). Nor does he see that prices in a pure gold money system decline - not stay stable - nor that additional non-gold monies (paper and other metals as well as products and rarities – like Audubon prints) are added or left out of the market as its liquidity requirements change without synchronized changes in gold production - or in short, that the gold standard is just as artificial as the gold-exchange and floating systems that replace it, that bimetallism allows just enough flexibility to keep prices and financial holdings in sync so long as there is no fixed silver/gold exchange rate.

Wanninski still endorses the idea of a monetary authority and government mint – both of which create leeway for arbitrary decision-making that would naturally lead to trade in privilege.

Wanninski actually went so far in his belief in technocratic planning as to state outright that central planning Soviets could actually have beaten the US had they had a stable gold money instead of gluing the Ruble to the Dollar. He did not see the pitfalls inherent in central planning as late as 1995 – even when compared with a fiat money regime. That central planning is devoid of a mechanism to motivate quality production, and has only military goals as motives for innovation, which motives are eliminated in the rest of the economy, and therefore prevent the bulk of innovation from occurring – both in the military and outside it.

Black BladeRE: Canuck and Farfel (What Timing)#478432/9/2001; 1:21:07

I can sympathize with ya. I find it somewhat strange that AngloGold would forward sell 70% or more of their gold production for the next five years without having some inside knowledge about a coming "Gold Wreck." Now the gold market is tanking again. This is an "interesting" development right after the Anglo announcement. They can't make it under current market conditions. They even bought gold in the BoE gold auctions to deliver into their hedge books. Now they recently sold 3 marginal mines and forward sold an additional 50% of the next five years production on top of a 20% forward sold position. They are obviously building a "War Chest" to acquire other assets. They don't want to acquire hedged producers since the price is already built in, there is no accretive value whatsoever, and there is no sense in acquiring gold producers that have "dead gold" (forward sold gold). That leaves these predators with their eyes focused on Goldfields (GOLD) or some other profitable unhedged producer. There is even rumor that they or Barrick might even be drooling over Meridian Gold (MDG). Even Homestake (HM) and Newmont (NEM) have been rumored targets. It has even been mentioned in recent months that an Anglo-Barrick merger would be possible. A lot of M&A activity seems to be in the works as it is crunch time and it is either merge-acquire other assets or perish.

I do some work for the gold producers, and recently one client announced that they now want to wrap things up on one project as they might even close some operations, and another client company has hinted that they will pull the plug on another project I have been working on due to budgetary constraints. It looks as if the gold business is about to collapse for these guys and they're scared. I am in negotiations to put a project together in an overseas oil patch and could be gone out of the country again for some time. As far as the gold producers are concerned, they have only themselves for the current mess that they themselves helped to create. I'm glad that I took profits and closed out several positions in my portfolio. I have gone mostly to cash and some defensive issues as it looks to get ugly for the US economy as the recession heats up. I will just watch the POG do its thing and will grab some physical over time at cheap (maybe cheaper) prices and get back into real estate perhaps.

The best comedy on TV these days is the news. I saw a bunch of Kalifornian politicians point fingers at each other and try to place blame over the energy crisis. What a bunch of Buffoons! Yet others still bleat on – "What Energy Crisis?" These people are just like sheep lead to the slaughter they bleat over and over again – "What Problem?" – right until they enter the "Kill Floor" at the slaughterhouse, but then it's too late.

- Black Blade

ZenideaHi you precious lot !#478442/9/2001; 2:08:47

Back in Aussie !... didnt catch up with Tree of life :(.
Found 6 ladies platinum rings, 5 containing diamonds the best being .46 carat IF G and three ladies gold bands.
22 silver and 2000.00 in coinage. Raged on in Macau as well.
Not a major money making venture , but as usual darn soul satisfying. Fobbed off more Ag than I can carry ( havnt the patience ) in exchange for currency swaps etc and picked up the cat from the cattery :). BUT ! scored a 7.6 oz mens Au 99.9 Bracelet!. Au Du-pont pen and a number of watches.
Having said that and heaven only knows why the finds blew the laws of averages re Pt, Au, Ag trinkets clear out of the water. Went looking for that 25 legendendary tons od Au that the Japanese alledgedly left behind in ww2 for 2 days and gave up ( too cold in the hills and to many itchy critters),
next time as always .
Oh and found a few nice clients in HK.

Immmmmmmm havnt pre read a thing , My spontainious thoughts.
China lining up a few crackers off Taiwan could spell trouble within a year.
The Israeli election result could complicate matters indeed
The interest rate cuts were abit of a fizzer for the stock market. AND I MISSED YOU :) hehe

Black BladeAbby Jo Say's "Don't Worry, Be Happy!"#478452/9/2001; 2:18:51

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010208/c6.html

Goldman Sachs trotted out the old girl to tell everyone thta the economy is just wonderful and the sun shines, and the birds, chirp, etc. Just last week the old crow said that she still expected S&P at 1650 by year end and DOW well over 12500. Hmmm...
PandagoldDave C Greenspan#478462/9/2001; 2:21:28

On this we agree. However, to the masters who's interest he really serves, he will be a hero, because from the financial worldwide turmoil,that will ensue, they will once again, emerge the winners, and will have made one more giant step towards their ultimate goal.

Remember, he is a very old man, so hasn't that long to 'suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune' (Shakespeare).

Rubin, a much younger man got out long before the sh*t hits the fan.

OROBlack Blade and Farfel - Anglo hedging#478472/9/2001; 2:23:56

Remember that the consortiums that fund the expansions of miners nearly always contain Chase, Morgan, and Citi, often with HSBC, Deutche, or UBS. Thus the other side of the transaction, the one that sells the miners downside protection, is taking on a downside POG risk and an upside POG protection.

The "overhang" the Anglo prez speaks of is a non-existent one. It is the imaginary thought that CBs would let go further what uncommitted gold they have (if any outside the ECB members). If the bankers actually thought there was such a downside, they would not have sold the puts and bought the calls and forwards contracts (that provide the banks with upside protection.

So the bullion bankers will use the remaining physical hoard from BB/CB reserves to supply the gold market with physical, which will lower prices a little further, and then let prices go up till Anglo can't post margin - unless Anglo got a margin free arrangement like Barrick's. The main point is that this is a repeat of the PDG and NEM hedges that they put on just before the WA. It is just another scam to (1) cover the BB's from price rises, (2)displace gold from current holders by replacing it with gold miner paper (which is still regarded as good), (3) supply the spot market with the gold before the seasonal demand kicks in.

With 70% of 5 year production hedged, Anglo are providing cover for the sale of 25 mil oz./750 tonnes of gold from the banker's customers (or reserves - if any are left).

By the way, the favored bullion bank customer will buy physical and sell an at the money call followed by the purchase of a partial put out of the money, and a far out of the money call, leaving him with no noticeable opportunity risk in having missed the best gold price, and a rather narrow window for losses. The call sale will be repeated up to 4 times a year. Thus for each bullion oz. purchased, there would be a 2-4 oz supply of paper through the year.

In short, I would tend to believe that another gold spike is in the making, which is why the bankers are pushing the miners to hedge. Not to protect the miners, but to protect the bankers.

ZenideaLast Paragraph Oro 47847#478482/9/2001; 2:29:34

... yes
OROZeneida - good haul#478492/9/2001; 2:48:20

Nice collection you hauled back with you.

Me' 'at's off to ya'.

Get good prices?

OROBlack Blade - Abbey Jo' - what she don' say#478502/9/2001; 2:52:48

The venerable market bull (cow? fem for bull?) is not telling you the price effects of the monetary expansion that would raise SPoos and DOWs that far would make prices go up in proportion.
UsulNatural Gas in the North Sea (and that's where it's staying?)#478512/9/2001; 3:32:23

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=359907&in_review_text_id=304713

"...The North Sea is regulated by the Department of Trade and Industry and it will neither engineer a regime to encourage companies to drill for more gas nor say where the stuff is likely to come ashore, so Lattice is in the dark. Meanwhile, Lattice's regulator, Ofgem, is refusing to take account of the possible £1 billion extra spend, nor even at this stage agree to revisit the price regime.

It is even worse than that. The regulator proposes to allocate the discount on assets that existed at privatisation exclusively to assets in the regulated part of the company. This would massively reduce the value of the assets on which the company was allowed to make a return, make further investment hopelessly uneconomic and make most of the existing spend look like a horrible mistake.

You cannot run a coherent energy policy on the basis of knocking 50p off the customer's gas bill. What matters is security of supply, not short-term profit. In a sensible world, the onshore carrier and the offshore driller would be part of one energy regime, dedicated to guaranteeing security of supply for the next 20 years. Instead, our fragmented, short-term approach is more likely to engineer a gas shortage - no mean achievement when there is so much of it just a few miles offshore but where, of course, it is no good to anyone if it is not worth drilling for and the pipelines do not exist to bring it to market..."

Can anybody hear- GRASSHOPPERS??

LeSinThoughts from the Far Side - Provokes Much Thought#478522/9/2001; 3:36:40

Trail Guide, Oro, Randy & ALL - What say you?

Date: Thu Feb 08 2001 22:52
Tyrant (Washington Agreement II) ID#374254:
Copyright © 2000 Tyrant/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Well now that the Washington Agreement has basically given the United States a year and a quarter of "prolonged" fiat security.......I bet we will hear an announcement ( which has already been drawn up...I am certain ) once gold challenges the $252 area again.

Interest rates up, interest rates down, dollar up, dollar down...NONE of it mattered...GOLD is DE-Monetized and the central banks possess ALL of it.

It is in the interest of the central banks to announce something in the very near future sooner rather than later. Also, don't forget commercials ( central banks, miners ) are certainly on the phone bitching to "do something".

Besides there is plenty of room for a move up to the $300 an oz. area w/o any systemic risk. The risk now is a panic plunge which I am sure the worlds largest holder ( The United States ) just can't risk.

Washington Agreement II - This weekend?


Date: Thu Feb 08 2001 16:32
Tyrant (Central Banks - To Limit Gold Sales) ID#374254:
Washington Agreement II -
Central Banks - To Limit Gold Sales to 10 tons a month.

Date: Fri Feb 09 2001 00:03
sharefin (DA - are you being straight with us......) ID#284255:
Date: Thu Feb 08 2001 23:07
D.A. ( shades of ANOTHER ) ID#7579:
I heard an amazing thing tonight from someone whom I completely trust in the metals markets. This person, related to me that he had good info that back when the Bank of England announced its planned sale of gold the BIS went to them and offered to buy the entire lot at $275. The BOE declined.

If this is true, then it would appear that GATA is actually right, and ANOTHER was not far off.

OROMore on distress of the gold shorts#478532/9/2001; 4:00:21

The announcement of the hedges and the paper avalanche that followed came as gold was scraping against the $270 mark. Obviously the bankers are sensitive to POG rising beyond that, otherwise, they would have pressed Hamoney for more that buying 1 mil oz. puts. But they were pressed in time to release the news in order to drive prices back outside the reach of $270. Other slight signs are in the very tight congestion of the short term lease rates to 6 mo. near 1%. Negotiations were probably ongoing as POG was heading back to $280 and hedges performed just below that.

Note that the XAU and HUI are saying "we don't believe you". They are rising against bullion, and have not fallen below key support despite POG being lower than it was when both indices were at 40 (both are over 45 now). Granted that much of this is from Freeport McMoran (up 80%) which is a copper producer (remember that copper is the junior to silver).

Black BladePGMs lower on Russkies Dubious Claims#478542/9/2001; 4:05:30

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010208/l08243202.html

The Russkies are at it again and the gullible market investors are sucking it up. We've heard that the Russians were going to deliver PGMs en mass to the markets for over 5 years, and every time the gullible (usually the Japanese) tend to believe them and they get royally burned every time. It's like stealing candy from a baby. The report is that Putin may sign off on "quotas." He has in the past and will in the future, right? The problem is that there are usually no corresponding deliveries. Can't deliver what doesn't exist after all. The only mining of PGMs by the Russians, is the mining of PGM investors. It's really quite funny how supposedly intelligent people fall for the same scam over and over. Besides, the quotas are meaningless without "export licenses." However, the prices of PGMs have taken a hit over the last few days, but will likely rebound when reality sets in. The recent NYMEX default on palladium (they call it raising margins) had little short term effect. This PGM market is quite entertaining to say the least as party and counter party work endlessly to put the screws to each other.

- Black Blade

Black BladeSunshine Silver - Rising From the Ashes?#478552/9/2001; 4:14:43

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/010208/tx_sunshin.html

Sunshine Silver emerges from bankruptcy just in time to take advantage of the rapidly fally silver price ;-) I note that they are now going to abandon their corporate offices in the north for the sunny climes of Dallas, TX. Better yet, why go to Bahamas, or Cayman's? They got decent golf courses, snorkeling, etc. Everything the executive of a troubled silver mining company freshly emerged from bankruptcy could ever want.
Black BladePd Quotes Look Funny!#478562/9/2001; 4:17:51

If you hurry, you can see that Kitco has Palladium ask at $10, and bid at $1050. What a spread ;-)
SALMONGold Business - plain and simple#478572/9/2001; 4:40:44

Gold is below $260, again. I am expecting that there would not be too many buyers around these levels, except for some value investors. That always seems to be the case.
The best, biggest, most successful gold producers proudly announced that they are able to produce gold below $200 / oz on a cash basis.
oNow, we have to add to the cash cost:
oCost of finding and developing the mine
oDepletion, depreciation and amortization
oReclamation expenditures
oDeferred taxes
oInterest expenses
oSelling expenses
oWrite-downs and other unusual charges
oExpectation for reasonable profit
Based on my "plain and simple" calculation there is not much room to show a profit. I believe the last time gold traded below this level it did so for only two weeks.

As Farfel mentioned, it is time to put pressure on these guys. They have been getting away with poor management for far too long. The bullion banks are benefiting, central banks are benefiting, mining executives are benefiting, miners are benefiting and shareholders get the short end.

Canuck@ Farfel#478582/9/2001; 5:10:47

Thanks for the advice buddy.

I have been communicating with several producers albeit with limited results. It was (is) my hope to bring about awareness that the producers are losing this game. I am sure that there is plenty of heat currently directed at them presently (not to say that they don't deserve more).

I feel the newest development with AU and HGMCY pretty much seals the fate of producers and frankly is it an admission of failure on their part. IMHO, it now seems quite clear what the game plan is of the Masters and that of the huge hedgers; a game of survival, a massive bet placed by both parties.

The spike, soon to be delivered IHMO, will swallow many companies and it is clear Anglo is fighting this tooth and nail, preparing for the fight of their 'life'. Share price is very immaterial (to them) at this junctor.

So now that we know, the producers (the 'cobblee's') know, and the Masters (the 'cobbler's') know, what is the plan?

As per FOA, Another, Aristotle and many others I think the answer is crystal clear.

The Invisible HandBritish police looking for the yellow#478592/9/2001; 6:04:46

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/newsid_1161000/1161700.stm

instructions from BOE?
barnacle billSoybeans#478602/9/2001; 6:15:16

I was going through some old Futures Magazine articles and I noticed the following seasonal trade for soybeans.

FUTURE ENTRY EXIT WIN WIN LOSS TOTAL AVG AVG
DATE DATE % YEARS YEARS YEARS PROFIT Daily
Buy
July 2/12 4/1 93 14 1 15 $1184 $24

The article was titled "Bean Stalking" by Nick A. Colley and Jerry Toepke. It was in the April 1998 Futures Magazine.

barnacle billRe: Soybeans Msg#47860#478612/9/2001; 6:19:15

Message 47860 was scrambled by e-mail software. What the message was to say was buy July beans on 2/12 and exit on 4/1. This trade has a win% of 93. 14 win years and one loss year. Average profit is $1,184, and average daily profit is $24.67.
DaveCPandagold - Rubin and Easy AL#478622/9/2001; 6:23:09

Rubin was the real genius wasn't he?
Gets out early. Gets his GS IPO. Now at Citi. He's got it coming in boatloads.

DaveCLet's All Hold Hands and Buy CELL PHONES!#478632/9/2001; 6:30:53

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010209/l0164958_3.html

Rare metal key to making smaller mobile phones
By Paul de Bendern

HELSINKI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Only a few years ago the mobile phone was a brick-like, unreliable and expensive device targeted at the few with deep, reinforced pockets.

Today, it's a small, light, everyday, inexpensive product used by more than 700 million people, or about 12 percent of the world's population.

What led to this dramatic change?

One important factor was the use of certain metals, such as copper, nickel, palladium, gold and tantalum, to help reduce the size of a cellular phone.

Industry experts say that all the technology now packed into a mobile phone, such as batteries, flash memory chips, microprocessors, and liquid crystal displays (LCDs), could have filled a whole office floor less than 30 years ago.

Take for example the silver-grey precious metal tantalum, which is largely mined in Australia and Central Africa.

Tantalum, a powder compacted for use in producing passive capacitors, has been a key factor in reducing the size of the mobile phone in recent years.

The expensive and rare powder is used to build these capacitors that regulate voltage at high temperatures.

Demand for this tiny but sophisticated component from the likes of mobile phone giants Nokia and Motorola (NYSE:MOT - news) has pushed the price of the precious metal around 600 percent higher in less than three years, traders say.

Tantalum highlights the importance ``old'' economy precious metals have in the make-up of ``new'' economy products, not just in mobile phones but also in portable computers, game consoles and other electronic devices where size is king.

Around one third of the world's tantalum is mined by Australian company Sons of Gwalia (Australia:SGW.AX - news) alone.

PRECIOUS METAL HELPS RUN HEART OF CELLPHONE

A mobile phone is one of the most intricate devices that people use on a daily basis, but many don't know that it's really a radio -- an extremely sophisticated radio that sends and receives signals and works under very low power.

If you dissect a phone you will find it holds a battery, a small microphone, a tiny speaker, a liquid crystal display, a keyboard not unlike a TV remote control, an antenna -- used for receiving and transmitting signals -- and a circuit board.

But it is the printed fibre glass circuit board and the content that sits on top of it that make the phone tick. Gold plating covers the surfaces of circuit boards and connectors.

While the cellular phone is mostly made out of plastics, it is run by several powerful computer chips.

Some of the key parts are the microprocessor, the digital signal processor (DSP), the read-only-memory (ROM), connectors, the radio frequency (RF) power sector and flash memory chips.

But the tantalum capacitor and other passive capacitors are also crucial. About 35 percent of them are made for mobile phone makers, according to industry experts.

They are used as storage vessels, storing energy, ready for use when there is a big surge of energy to a cellular phone.

These components help supply that extra kick of energy for the phone which the battery cannot provide on its own.

They are also used as an ingredient of superalloys, principally for use in aircraft engines and spacecraft.

DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY

The unexpected surge in demand from mobile phone and computer makers in recent years has boosted the price of tantalum on the metals market, forcing makers of tantalum capacitors, such as American companies AVX Corp (NYSE:AVX - news) and Kemet Corp (NYSE:KEM - news) to pass on some of the cost to their clients.

Last year more than 400 million phones were sold globally, a 45 percent increase on the previous year. In 2001 mobile phone leaders expect over 500 million units to be sold worldwide.

Because cellular phones are not yet recyclable, manufacturers cannot reuse the rare metals for future phones. But plans are underway to allow for limited recycling.

Tantalum prices have also stayed high because demand is outstripping supply and the only replacement to tantalum capacitors -- ceramic capacitors -- cannot yet be made small enough to fit the dimensions of tiny cellular phones.

``There's no substitute for tantalum that would meet the requirements of mobile phones,'' said Jim McCombie, managing director of A&M Minerals and Metals Ltd, which trades tantalum.

Last year annual usage of tantalum stood at around five million pounds (lbs), up from three million in 1997 and yearly demand is rising by around 15 percent, tantalum traders say.

The rise in demand is also due to a rise in non-mobile phone electronics, especially from makers of small electronic devices.

Prices for tantalum jumped to around $350 per pound last month, up from $40 in 1997, traders said. In the early 1990s the metal traded at around $20 per pound.

But one trader said the price range was now off its highs as financial markets digested news that the mobile phone market would not grow as fast as expected in coming years.

``We may now be past the big peak in tantalum, but demand is still outstripping supply and will do so for the foreseeable future,'' said one tantalum trader. ``At least until scientists have found a viable replacement.''

Even if the consumer appetite for mobile phones cools it will still be a big market and tantalum traders expect to see increased demand from Asian manufacturers of electronic gadgets that are also constrained by size.

``Tantalum may not be the flavour of the month, but it's still in fashion,'' said London-based McCombie.

The Invisible Hand.Extreme low interest rates are the main cause of the depression#478642/9/2001; 7:08:50

http://www.5555.co.jp/mistake.htm

The BOJ yesterday decided to slash its official discount -to 0.35 percent from 0.5 percent. Here's an article about the effect of low interest rates. Unfortunately, the article is not dated. My apologies, if it has been posted before. Does the article mean that although depression is coming in North America, Europe, which leaves rates unchanged, will flourish? BTW, can anybody explain whether rates are determined by bond yields or by CBs?
PandagoldLet us pray#478652/9/2001; 7:09:28

And give thanks
Wow! Gold up 10 cents in New York. I must break open a bottle of bubbly, and reach for a cigar. But, no, I sweat, - Will it hold, I grip my chair nervously..............
Isn't life exciting?

PandagoldNot worth a 'plugged' dollar#478662/9/2001; 7:15:24

I know I posted this before from another source. But why do they keep plugging it as a 'GOLD' coin. Are some people really fooled into believing it is? And why do they keep plugging this Safeway connection - how much have Safeway paid for this 'advertising'?

Safeway to offer Gold Dollar
Pleasanton-based Safeway Inc. says it's going to offer the new Golden Dollar coin as an option when making change for its customers in its 1,500 supermarkets. The company says it will make the coins available on an ongoing basis to meet consumer demand.

I haven't posted a link because you are all familiar with
the news.

SALMONRepost - do not be intimidated, this was expected#478672/9/2001; 7:29:56

Gold Business - plain and simple


Gold is below $260, again. I am expecting that there would not be too many buyers around these levels, except for some
value investors. Tha