USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
gidsekHydro#2788004/01/00; 02:14:55

Thanks for the Fed link re money supply, though I think you may have missed the increase in M3 (containing euro dollars) with respect to the other measures.

Easy Als' money has been flowing overseas via the current account deficit etc., hence "price stability, low inflation and the goldilocks economy" on this side of the pond.

When these dollars come home to roost (indicated by a decline on the FX markets) the gold bull will be underway in earnest as I understand things.

I agree that the crowing about M1 is misleading as this measure appears to have been shrinking and and doesn't paint the big picture.


Netking@gidsek#2788104/01/00; 03:38:17

The real key though is the strengthening of the Yen over the Greenback. This has turned an acute corner & would be of more pertinance I believe than that of the M1 directly.
Mr GreshamVanRip -- Thanks!#2788204/01/00; 03:57:21

Thanks for your post on living through the Depression. Your description is so vivid, I felt I was watching it directly. Such a rooting in reality, however hard and sad, compared with the manifold artificialties today, however pleasant. That is why we welcome your post here, as we try to dig underneath the artificial veneer and brainwashing we are all inveigled by.

It makes me glad to think I'll have your story among my "keepsakes" as I archive another month's post into a Word document for safekeeping.

RossLClinton Orders Recall of "Pro Gun" Quarters#2788304/01/00; 04:01:50

President Clinton this morning will announce a total
recall by the U.S. Mint of 400 million 25 cent pieces
which feature an armed man on its reverse side.

The quarter was released earlier this year as part
of a 10-year program of commemorating each state's
entry into the Union with a specially designed
reverse side denoting its date of entry and featuring
designs approved by each state and the Mint. Last
year, five quarters were released without controversy.
However, the first quarter in this year's batch,
which honors Massachusetts, has drawn outrage from
children's groups, gun control advocates and others.

The reverse of the Massachusetts quarter features
an engraving of the state with a Minuteman holding a
flintlock rifle embossed over it.

Sarah Brady, outgoing president of Hand Gun Control,
Inc., said she was "livid" and "nearly had a stroke"
the first time she saw the gun-toting man on the
quarter. She said she felt betrayed by the Clinton
administration, which recently renamed the White
House press briefing room in honor of her husband
James Brady, who was grievously wounded by gunfire
in an assassination attempt on President Reagan.
Brady added that the quarter brought back "horrible
memories" of that day.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) who was promoted to the
Senate two years ago from the House in part for his
staunch gun-control advocacy, said he first saw the
offensive quarter when he was playing "quarters"
with Sen. Kennedy (D-Mass.) at a Capitol Hill
watering hole.

Schumer says he was draining a pint of Rolling Rock
after Kennedy had bounced a quarter into it and
reacted in "horror" when he saw a man with a gun
pointed at him through the bottom of the glass,
causing him to drop it and dive under the table.

Kennedy joined him under the table, thinking
Schumer had a waitress down there. Instead of a
hotty, he found the quarter which frightened his

Schumer says they both said at the same time, "That
quarter is dangerous!"

Marianne Wright Edelman, head of the Children's
Defense Fund says she is "upset" and "scared for the
children" who will see the "bad man with a gun" on
the quarter and get the message that "guns are cool."
She says the quarter will undermine years of efforts
to teach children that guns are dangerous and should
only be owned by the government.

A chagrined President Clinton, responding quickly
to head off an election-year snafu that could hurt
his fellow Democrats, ordered every Massachusetts
quarter taken out of circulation and destroyed. A
design to replace the gun-toting militia man has not
been chosen yet.

Published: April 1, 2000

HI - HATNetking 27881 YEN#2788404/01/00; 04:09:06

Since by all accounts Japan is not even joined at the hip of U.S. but rather an appendage of U.S., why is Yen strenghtening so accute? Their fiscal year has just ended and they are moving some paper around. So what. They have no gold,no oil, no resources, and apparently no real plan to extricate their corrupt system out of valueing assets on bank books that no longer exist. I don't understand what fundamental strenght underlies Japan and Yen to see any signifigance to Yen bouncing around. What am I not seeing?
onlychildLeigh @ depression#2788504/01/00; 04:30:43

As I read the posts about the depression, I hear all of my grandparents stories echoed. Two have passed recently (age 83 & 88), two are still living (both 86 soon). I am now 40 and I had many good years to absorb their stories. They have taught me to waste nothing. My wife would also throw out a garment with no button, or bread mix with an ant in it. But now she brings her sewing to me, and I would cook the bread mix for my brittany. In fact, my ways of repairing and reusing things have become such a joke with my secretary that she tries to embarass me by bringing me items that she would throw out. No success yet, I've salvaged everything from clothing to electronics. I've worked in the electrical construction industry for twenty years, much of it for the gov't, and believe me I have hauled home alot of valuable material that would have gone in the dumpster.

The lessons of my grandparents have left a permanent mark, I live far beyond the means of an electrician. But it is not by accumulating debt. I only have a mortgage and a Harley payment, both of which could be paid off tomorrow with the yellow metal I have aquired from MK these past few years. I'm financed at under 7%, so I believe it is better to pay a little interest on paper debt and accumulate hard, liquid, mobile assets with the money that I could have instead used to pay down my loans. Besides, I've learned a hard lesson about having your wealth where it can be seen. I was sued in '95 by one of those late night TV "have you been injured?" lawyers. Even though I was not in the wrong, it cost me a bundle to defend myself. The plaintiff saw money and went after it. If I had been apparently mortgaged to the hilt, there would have been no thought of filing a lawsuit. (forgive me for rambling, I'm on heavy medication from a sinus surgery yesterday)

My grandpants grew up much like VanRip, on a farm in a rural area. They all farmed with mules. Grandpa told me just last week of how his dad could plow 40 acres in a day walking behind his team. He said his dad would take quinine to relive his tired legs. They had no phone, no running water, and one light bulb. His mom would render pork fat and lye into soap. They hunted for their meat, that included rabbit, squirrel, raccoon, duck, goose, turtle dove, and plain ole turtle. They lived at the confluence of the Missouri and Grand rivers, so fish of every kind were on the menu too. Honey was had by finding a hive in an old hollow tree and smoking the bees so they wouldn't sting. If the tree was too big to climb, then you had to cut it down to get the honey (that tended to really upset the bees).

Grandpa would go work for other farmers once all of his dad's crops were out of the field. He had five brothers, and they would pick corn for 25 cents a bushel. I remember that he worked for one farmer for 50 cents a day. He was 15 when the depression hit, but he said they didn't notice it much on the farm, nothing from nothing is still nothing. It was the dust bowl that caused more trouble than the depression. Farming got rough, and in 1934 he went to Kansas City to find work. He would get up in the morning and walk all day from business to business trying to find work. He and grandma were newlyweds and they were lucky enough to own a car. Unfortunately, they couldn't afford gas, it was 7 cents a gallon. He finally found work in the steel mill for 27 cents an hour (woohoo, big bucks!). Once he found work he could afford gasoline, so he drove to work. But in the winter they couldn't afford anti-freeze, and multi-viscosity oil was still in the future. So when he came home from work he would drain the water out of the radiator, and if it was really cold he would drain the oil too. Otherwise he could heat the crankcase in the morning with a pan of coals from the stove.

My mom was born in the bedroom at home in 1936. She always wore used clothes, and her idea of a treat was plain puffed rice. Grandma would give her a waxed paper sandwich bag full of them to take out in the yard (for God's sake don't forget to bring the bag back). To this day, when we go hunting together my grandpa saves his sandwich bags to reuse. (We still hunt, and now that he's 85 I can keep up with him) As VanRip said, there was no hot water, you heated it on the stove. You went barefoot at home to save your shoes for school.

My grandma was lucky when the depession hit. The banks limited how much money you could withdraw. But her dad figured out that if you owed someone a debt, the bank would allow you to pay it. So suddenly my Great grandpa Sam owed his brother a bunch of money. They only lost seven dollars when the bank failed. They had all of their cash in paper money when FDR confiscated the gold, so it didn't affect them directly. But they did lose out when he revalued gold later in '33, since all paper lost almost half of it's value.

Grandma grew up much the same way as grandpa, except her dad was a cattle farmer, so she learned to ride at a very tender age. Bare back of course, who could afford a saddle? To this day she still gets teary-eyed talking about her old horse "Clipper". The horse went blind when it was fairly young due to an illness. Great grandpa could still plow with Clipper by hitching her to another horse, but no one could ride her but grandma. Clipper would gallop for grandma. That's trust! In the house where grandma grew up they had electricity, but they made it themselves. They had a wind generator that charged a bank of batteries. They had one of the few radios around, so on saturday everyone would come to their house to listen to the radio. the first radio used headsets, so everyone sat in a circle and shared an earpiece of the several headsets. Later, after the depression they got a larger floor-standing radio with a speaker. Grandma still has it and it is beautiful.

So they all went through some tough times, but it was a tough life already. Most people alive today have not had to live that life. Even our poor have TV, a phone and running water. I am afraid of what will happen next time. Many will turn to crime as a method of supporting their lifestyle. I belive our gov't is afraid too. I believe that is why there is such a push to disarm the public. It's not about safe schools, it's about safe senators and representatives. There was fear of revolt during the 30's, the first world war and the bolshevik revolution was not a distant memory then. If my history is clear, Captain Douglas MacArthur and Lt. Dwight D. Eisenhower opened fire on a group of WWI vets that were marching on DC in an effort to get their pensions. How's that for gratitude?

I hope you're right, I hope it's not too bad. I think the president would love nothing better than to declare martial law and cancel the election. Does this seem familiar? Small-time politician rises to presidency, popularity is high despite many wrongdoings. Creates robust economy from thin air. Wants the public disarmed to make a safer nation. Can you say National Socializm? Guten nacht, OC

Harley Davidson@Town Crier, All, VanRip's Message ID:27878#2788604/01/00; 04:54:29

Sir VanRip has taken us on a journey through time! I think this story, so beautifully told, deserves a special place here on the forum as it is possible (let's hope not)it may have increasing relevance in the times to come and all will benefit from having the opportunity to review it. Is this not HOF material?
Leighonlychild, RossL#2788704/01/00; 04:58:16

Thank you for retelling your family's Depression memories! There is a lot of wisdom in the things you said. I loved the line, "it's not about safe schools, it's about safe senators and representatives!"

RossL, did you write that great news story yourself? You got at least one victim this morning!

LeighHarley Davidson#2788804/01/00; 05:04:35

Why not a whole "Depression memories" section in the HOF? These are wonderful stories that should be read over and over. Any other seconds or ideas?
Harley Davidson@Leigh, your Message ID:27888#2788904/01/00; 05:07:28

That's an excellent idea.
Henri401K exit strategy#2789004/01/00; 05:20:48

It could be possible under extenuating circumstances to transfer the assets of a 401K plan to an IRA. Once the funds are in the IRA they can be extracted as early distribution. All the money that is basis becomes taxable as income when removed from the IRA since it was not taxed when it was put in. The balance is taxable as capital gains. There is also a 10% early distribution penalty. In some circumstances the penalty can be avoided. Each circumstance is different. perhaps you did want to go back to school to finish that degree?
Hill Billy MitchellOfficial release#2789104/01/00; 05:45:32

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: March 31, 2000

Rates for Thursday, March 30

Federal funds 6.11

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.88
10-year 6.06
20-year 6.26
30-year 5.89

HenriAnother Horseman? Y2K harmonic redemptions#2789204/01/00; 05:55:45

Years ago ('94) when I exited the last mutual fund I ever owned (save Tocqueville Gold IRA), I received a letter saying that I could return the redeemed money to the fund without losing my original share position for up to 90 days following the withdrawal. The way I read it, it meant they would not charge me a re-admission fee if I just sent the money back within 90 days. I presume the 90 day limitation has some significance or did back then. Perhaps that is when redemptions have to be booked. That would mean mutual funds may have a 90 day window to make adjustments for redemptions and do not have to actually sell any assets until 90 days after the redemption event. I ask you now, what happened about 90 days ago? The beginning of January 2000 saw a 500 point drop in the NASDAQ 100 and a 500 point drop in the DJIA. The ninety day reconciliation period for these fall offs are due. Perhaps some funds began early (before the end of March rush). But it doesn't end there. There were also Y2K withdrawals to unravel. What we saw last week could have been only the withdrawals of people redeeming in late December that didn't jump back in the second week of January. The January blips in turn were harmonic aftershocks from the late September '99 redemptions. If you view the DJIA the September decline was small compared to the January decline and the March decline has I think yet to gain momentum.
Harley Davidson@ Henri, your Msg ID:27890#2789304/01/00; 06:15:17

Interesting idea. I will contact my 401k people on Monday and see what they have to say. Thank you.
RossLLeigh#2789404/01/00; 06:49:07

I don't know who wrote the story in #27883, it's making the rounds by email today.
LelandThe New U.S. Dollar Coin --- Manganese, Brass and Copper #2789504/01/00; 07:52:41

Well, I suppose it's a step in the right direction. At
least it has some metallic value.

When the US Mint wanted to wean 275 million citizens
from the most popular bank note in history to a coin with a
bad reputation, it turned to a retail chain.

Wal-Mart, the largest retailer on Earth, has become the
first point-of-call for America's new "golden dollar" in a
marketing move that flouted the US monetary system and
became a case study in how to sell money.

After examining focus group research, Mint director Mr
Philip Diehl launched the new coin in January.

Now, there is a US$40 million television, radio and print
advertising campaign underway designed to overcome the
resistance of the most likely users: city-dwellers aged

The last attempt at issuing a dollar coin failed. Very few
retailers used it and the public remained dedicated to the
greenback. "Americans are particularly conservative in
their habits with currency," Mint spokesman Mr Michael
White said yesterday.

"They like the dollar note. They don't want to give it up."

So the US Mint turned to one of the things the nation does
best - marketing.

Free coins were hidden in breakfast cereal and
promotional flyers sent to 90 million homes near Wal-Mart
stores, with the Mint shipping out coins itself for the first
time. (Normally, the Federal Reserve distributes new

The impact was immediate. People flocked to collect the
golden-coloured coin carrying an image of Sacagawea, a
Native American woman who guided explorers
Merriwether Lewis and William Clark across America in
the early 1800s.

But Wal-Mart's early access angered the American
Bankers Association, which said many rural banks had
been embarrassed by their inability to supply customers
with the new coins. A Montana congressman,
Representative Ike Skelton, accused Washington of
favouring big business.

The controversy only increased demand for the coin, as
widespread media coverage created a sense of scarcity.

The Mint made special direct shipments to community
banks, credit unions and building societies, and set up an
internet ordering system for financial institutions. "We
couldn't have purchased the amount of public relations we
got," Mr White said.

In the two months since launching the coin the Mint has
already hailed it a success, with more than 344 million
coins issued. Circulation is expected to hit 500 million by
the end of next month.

The exercise will be lucrative for the Government's

The manganese, brass and copper coin costs US12¢
(19.5¢) to produce and has a 30 year lifespan, compared
with 4¢ dollar notes which have to be replaced every 18

But the motivation was economic. The dollar note is not
suited to vending machines, and a more machine-friendly
currency is seen as promoting consumption.

And having made his contribution to numismatics, Mr
Diehl yesterday announced he was leaving the Mint to
head of an online jewellery site based in Texas,

[A well written article. Thanks to THE AUSTRALIAN
FINANCIAL REVIEW, Fair Use For Educational/Research
Purposes Only.]

Trail Guide(No Subject)#2789604/01/00; 07:58:23

Today is a good day for a hike on the gold trail. Be back a little later with a full pack!(smile)


HenriNew Dollar coin has a ping#2789704/01/00; 09:14:07

We "pinged" the new Sacajewea coin and it did have an audible ping to it. Not sustained or good tonals like the Eagles but distinct.
CoBra(too)Euro CB's and Gold#2789804/01/00; 09:16:17

@ Oldgold MSG 227869
Sir Oldgold - in your above message you stipulated that
it is the ECB and Euro CB's leasing "all" that gold. Please let me, as one of the few Continentals on this board remind you, that the Washington Accord expressively stated, that all signatories will also refrain from leasing,
forward sales and other futures instruments regarding the gold they hold, as well as limiting total sales for 5 years to 2.000 tons, or max. 400t/a.
This amount is more or less spoken for:
Bof Switzerland: 1.300t
Netherlands: 300t
UK: 415t* (WA came after 2nd. sale of 25t each - so there may be 35t not accounted for up to now).
No further surprises to be expected from this front, though I'm discounting French nonsense, which was instantly
denied by the BofF.
While, I'm not saying it wasn't done - Gold Leasing from
EU CB's was never a big issue, though Deutsche Morgan Grenfell and UBS may have been perpetrators in this context, the major NY money center and BB's are the more likely targets for your accusations. Sir, please ask yourself, who their lenders of last (gold) resort may have been?

LelandHenri#2789904/01/00; 09:26:41

My Susan Anthony's don't "ping". Maybe they REALLY are
getting smarter at the Mint. ???

Galearis@Cobra(too) and oldgold#2790004/01/00; 09:43:15

You said:
@ Oldgold MSG 227869
Sir Oldgold - in your above message you stipulated that
it is the ECB and Euro CB's leasing "all" that gold. Please let me, as one of the few Continentals on this board remind you, that the Washington Accord expressively stated, that all signatories will also refrain from leasing,
forward sales and other futures instruments regarding the gold they hold, as well as limiting total sales for 5 years to 2.000 tons, or max. 400t/a.
We all need a reminder of this from time to time, yes? The world of gold finance has fundamentally changed. But again, the question floating in the back of my mind comes to the fore, that although the Euro CBs as signatories to the Washington Agreement may hold true to this policy, Europe is not the whole rest of the world in terms of CBs with gold reserves available (?) for leasing. We have been pondering these last months the source of physical being dumped on the market - whether it be sourced from foreign European reserves held (not yet repatriated) in the US (which could be being leased), or supplies draining illegally from Fort Knox. But what we do not know is the position on other foreign banks (Kuwait comes to mind)in the whole rest of the world and whether they are leasing.
An answer to this would be much appreciated.

CoBra(too)@Galearis#2790104/01/00; 09:57:02

Just a short note on your response - will try to get to the
bones later.
I subscribe to A/FOA's US$/IMF faction vs Euro/BIS faction
and find it more accurate by the day, judging from the events we're all witnessing as they unfold.
I will have to respond later, since we have guests for dinner.

Thank you CB2

Peter AsherRossL (04/01/00; 04:01:50MDT - Msg ID:27883)#2790204/01/00; 10:00:46

This has got to be the most absurd lunacy to date. I can't believe that these are real people allowed to even walk the streets much less be part of Advise, Consent and Govern.

We probably haven't heard from SteveH this morning because he broke his typing hand when he put his fist through the wall!

So far, nothing shows on or

True, false or distorted, the intent is clear in the ****statement.

Marianne Wright Edelman, head of the Children's
Defense Fund says she is "upset" and "scared for the
children" who will see the "bad man with a gun" on
the quarter and get the message that "guns are cool."
She says ******* the quarter will undermine years of efforts
to teach children that guns are dangerous and should
only be owned by the government.***********

RossLPeter#2790304/01/00; 10:18:47

It's an April fools day joke.
<big grin>

Peter AsherFurthermore#2790404/01/00; 10:20:51

When did the Minuteman, the symbol of the American Revolution, become "The bad man with the gun."

When we were kids we sold 25 cent defense stamps to finance the War; they had that Minuteman as their graphic. That would really give these sickos a coronary!

I have been I bit blase' regarding the alleged attempt to disarm and takeover control of the people. But this scares me!

Peter AsherRoss L#2790504/01/00; 10:23:05

@^%$#*&@#@#% ---I'm not quite laughing yet. It's too plausible
onlychildPeter Asher#2790604/01/00; 10:38:43

Peter, don't feel too bad about being zinged an april 1. It's a good thing I finished the article and saw the date at the bottom. I thought it was all over, I was ready to head for the bunker.
UlyssesM.R. Edelman#2790704/01/00; 11:31:17

Great idea!Guns should only be owned by the Government. Hitler thought the same thing.Try telling that to the Swiss, Marianne. Geez. I guess George Washington should have used moral suasion instead of guns to get the British out of the colonies.
IronHeadSir Ross L and Peter Asher#2790804/01/00; 12:45:24

Remember the old saying- There is much truth in jest.

Keep your powder dry.


Analyzer@Cobra(too) Leasing & Washington Agreement#2790904/01/00; 13:18:51

From the WGC web site:

begin quote

The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasing and their use of gold futures and options over this period.

The words used are not totally clear on whether gold leasing is to be frozen at current levels, or whether some leeway will be allowed as long as the total at the end of the period equals that at present.

end quote

I think it is a bit misleading to say "that all signatories will also refrain from leasing". It is obvious that they are still leasing, they are just not expanding their leases. I agree with oldgold that they certainly have it in their power to end the bear market by announcing a reduction from their current level of leasing. They could be choosing not to do so for many reasons. I imagine that such an announcement would not ultimately get them much of their gold back, but this really makes me wonder how do they expect to get it back?

SALMONOpen letter to Barrick Gold:#2791004/01/00; 13:27:00

Thank you for your response to my e-mail although I notice the same reply was circulating in the gold chat rooms, so I consider it not just a thoughtful response to me. Rather, it appears to be another general reply generated by your shareholder relations department in defence of your outmoded premium hedging program, at a time when the price of gold equals the cost of production to producers.

I have to congratulate you for building a strong solid company with excellent management, and for creating a very innovative premium hedging strategy in the first stages of development of the company. BUT THAT WAS THEN. You are now a mature company with a great deal of influence in the industry that allows you to grow and prosper. You must not sell your industry short!! The gold market was a relatively healthy industry then, and you could not afford to jeopardize shareholder investment at that time. You are NOW one of the strongest in the industry, with low cost production and a strong balance sheet, and you can again show leadership.

YOU need to send the message that :

1. Speculation in the gold market will be not be tolerated in order to bring the price down to satisfy a chosen few who lease gold at 1% and then invest in paper at 6 % at the same time severely depressing the gold market. This game is getting old, and everyone is aware of it but no one is doing anything about it, including you. But, of course, you are also a participant.

2. Gold is not only a material to produce jewellery but a monetary instrument which has held value for ages. Your CEO knows that, and I know that. We both have Eastern European backgrounds and both know what happened to our old currencies in the time of excessive monetary expansion. The currencies lost 1000% to 10000% depending on which country you look at.

3. By paying an $85M premium for 6.8M ozs of gold call options, you did not do shareholders any favour. By your own admission you are realizing $100/oz over the market price. Simply calculate this and you have $680M additional revenue by buying and delivering gold without spending $85 million in this paper game. Also, this sends a signal to the market that shorting the gold market is unprofitable. Ask your shareholders what they would prefer! In the case of any excessive selling by central banks (who now sell only 400T a year) production could always be cut, and company resources would not be depleted at this ridiculously low price.

4. Investing in a gold producer is investing in gold. Investing in a hedge fund is for the derivative players, not the gold investor. The market recognizes this and that is why the shares of Barrick have been in a steady decline for the last five years, hitting another low this past Friday. Surely you are aware of this. After Placer Dome made an announcement that they were curtailing their hedging activities the momentum was there. You had a chance to bring an end to this abusive derivatives scam which is destroying the entire gold industry. And what did you do? You supported this debacle by adding more derivatives to the existing ones.

I will never invest in Barrick under the present circumstances because investing in Barrick is supporting a derivatives madness that has only been negative for the gold industry. Perhaps it is time for your executive to rethink their strategy. Hubris will have to take a back seat. The ball is in your court and you must take the initiative and make a VERY STRONG STATEMENT and send a VERY STRONG SIGNAL that you intend to take control as a leader, and that you have faith in your own industry.

Unfortunately, the same people who rely on a viable prosperous gold industry have created this problem. Please do not waste any more of your shareholder's money lecturing them on the so-called benefits of this derivatives scheme. It is destroying the gold industry, but I don't think it is too late to reverse the course.



Galearis@Canuck re silver rounds....#2791104/01/00; 13:33:15

Just a short info packet to Canuck. Silver rounds may be available in some small quantity in Canada. Coin dealers who also have a small market for selling bullion and who travel in the US on a selling tour may pick these up. They do not have the same premium added on cost to the consumer, but are in all ways just as good in metal and weight as coin.

Many come as "wafer" style too and all have some special occasion embossing, with "happy birthday", "Merry Christmas", "Happy Easter" and the like. As such they are date embossed and can be had at a considerable discount - down to 10 - 15 % over spot (usually the next month's future spot)- and I recommend them over Maples etc.

Easter is coming. More of these will be hitting the market soon. Outdated, but still tasty.

Best regards,


CoBra(too)@ Analyzer, Oldgold and All - #2791204/01/00; 16:08:08

Re: Washington Accord: Your WGC quote is exactly correct:

Here is the full text of Sept. 26 1999, though I didn't want to restart this discussion.

Joint Statement on gold

European Central Bank
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Banque Nationale de Belgique
Suomen Pannki - (Finland)
Banque de France - forget any ideas for 5 years
Deutsche Bundesbank
Central Bank of IrelandBanca d'Italia
Banque centrale de Luxembourg
De Nederlandsche Bank
Banco de Portugal
Banco de Espana
Sveriges Riksbaank
Schweizerische Nationalbaank
Bank of England

In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.
2. The undersigned institutions will not enter the market as sellers, with the exception of already decided sales.
3. The gold sales already decided will be achieved thtough a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2.000 tons.
**** 4. The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period.****
5. This agreement will be reviewed after five years.

This is the official text of the agreement by the 15 signatories on Sept. 26 1999.

* IMHO - true we don't exactly know the extend of EU-CB gold leasing, the indications point to an average of below 10% -that would mean about 1.200 tons, which again would only account for max 10% of the alleged short position on physical, though the combined holdings of above signatories
equate to about 1/3 of total official sector gold holdings- if it's still there, which was your prime question! - All I can say is that the EU CB's have been accounted for their resereve holdings independently - otherwise not one of the common currency members would have accepted a party to the system, which would or could not prove the reliability of their accounting to the rest of the "gang".
So why does the US not comply to prove their reserves of gold (which, BTW are the only true exchange reserves the country may have, since they can print the same in paper, paupering the rest of the world for a while, but not forever), which may be a moot thought after experiencing the US$ defaulting in the "NEW DEAL" internally and in the Nixon default 1971.
From here on the FIAT $ has lost all relation to real money and became a symbol of extortion, blackmail and in the end serfdom. The extreme counterproductive ends the US $ was never, ever designed for.
And that may be why some of your great men wanted to install -GOLD- as the only true measure for countervalue and reality.
OK, again 14 EU CB's and the ECB agreed not to sell more gold than the already designated 2.000 tons over 5 years - 1.300 tons coming from the Swiss CB alone -and I don't even want to go into details as how the Swiss have been "persuaded" to part with a major part of their national inheritance, though I feel you all know by now.

More later -CB2

FarfelMy Letter to Barrick Gold - Taking the Intellectual Approach#2791304/01/00; 16:16:02

Ms. Mulligan:

Barrick Gold is NEXT! (Note Paragraph Three)

Close your F**king hedges NOW!

David Cohen

Fraud Lawsuit Filed on Behalf
of Purchasers of Ashanti
Goldfields Company Limited,
Inc. Common Stock

LITTLE ROCK, Ark., March 27 /PRNewswire/ -- The following is an
announcement by the
Law Offices of Steven E. Cauley, P.A:

The Law Offices of Steven E. Cauley, P.A. announced today that a class
action lawsuit has been
filed in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of
New York on behalf of all
persons who purchased the common stock of Ashanti Goldfields Company
Limited, Inc.
(NYSE: ASL - news; ``Ashanti'' or the ``Company'') between July 28,
1999, and October 5,
1999, inclusive (the ``Class Period).

The complaint charges Ashanti and certain of its senior officers with
violations of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934. The complaint alleges that defendants issued a
series of materially false
and misleading statements concerning the Company's hedging strategy,
ostensibly designed to
protect Ashanti against fluctuations in the price of gold. The complaint
further alleges that
defendants' statements during the Class Period misrepresented and
concealed the true risks
present in the Company's hedge book and concealed the Company's exposure
to the volatility in
the price of gold. On October 5, 1999, the complaint alleges, Ashanti
announced that its hedge
book had turned ``negative'' by over $450 million and that the Company
would be required to
meet massive margin calls which it did not have the capital to meet. In
response to the
Company's belated disclosures the price of Ashanti common stock fell
over 56% to close at
$4.125 per share on October 6, 1999.

The Law Offices of Steven E. Cauley have substantial experience in
prosecuting class action
lawsuits on behalf of investors, and recently obtained a $25 million
settlement for certain
purchasers of Medpartners securities. If you wish to serve as one of the
lead plaintiffs in this
lawsuit you must file the appropriate motion with the court no later
than sixty days from
February 3, 2000. If you have any questions regarding this lawsuit or
how you may be able to
recover for the losses you have incurred, please E-mail or call:

11311 Arcade Drive, Suite 201
Little Rock, AR 72212
E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
1-888-551-9944 - toll free

SOURCE: Law Offices of Steven E. Cauley, P.A.

FarfelMy Second Letter To Barrick Gold - The Sweet Approach#2791404/01/00; 16:22:22

Ms. Mulligan:

Barrick Gold is NEXT!

Close your f*king hedges NOW!

David Cohen

COHEN, Milstein, Hausfeld & Toll, .L.L.C. Files Class Action Suit Against MicroStrategy, Inc.
PR Newswire, 3/27/2000 02:38 PM

Gold Trail UpdateThe Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated#2791504/01/00; 16:59:06">The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
FarfelParsing Bloomberg's Latest Anti-Gold Propaganda....#2791604/01/00; 17:23:26

Gold Prices Seen Lower as Switzerland Prepares to Sell

Bloomberg News
Mar 31 2000 6:30PM

New York, March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices could fall in coming days, extending a
seven-week slide, on concern that sales of bullion by central banks will overwhelm
demand from investors and manufacturers.

(Well, at least, that's the message we've been told to print by the guys at Goldman and Chase. Gawd, they sure know how to bribe a news organization!)

Switzerland this spring is expected to begin a five-year program to sell 1,300 metric tons
of gold.

(Of course, you've all known this for almost three years now since we've informed you almost every second week at least a hundred times of the impending sale. The current dismal low gold price reflects that fact. You know, "sell on the expectation, buy on the news" is the way the markets "normally" work...except the gold market, which we have screwed up so badly that it is now "sell on the expectation, sell on the news." It's always, SELL, SELL, SELL!)

The Swiss central bank is one of 15 European banks that agreed last year to
limit gold sales to a combined total of 2,000 tons during that period. While the agreement
bolstered prices briefly last year, expectations of weak demand for the gold sent prices
tumbling this year.

(Of course, there is almost always another central bank to buy these central gold sales but we conveniently never mention that point of info since we are scaremongers committed to making people believe that all these gold sales hit the street. Basically, we like talking about gold sales, HATE to suggest who might be PURCHASING the gold. Oh, what dirty rotten scamsters we are!).

``The fear of central bank sales is overhanging the market,'' said Donald Eckert, head of
precious metals trading at Chase Manhattan Bank in New York.

(Holy shit, we hope you swallow this load of unmitigated BS. After all, these bullion banks are sitting here with tons of gold shorts and you better believe there's fear out there. When some savvy shrewd central bank or smart billionaire starts to buy gold and demand physical, Chase Manhattan is screwed, blued, and tatooed. The fat greedy pig-f*king execs will have to place their country estates up for sale and see if somebody'll hire them in Korea or some Godforsaken country like that).

The Bridge-Commodity Research Bureau index rose 1.78 this week to 214.37. The
Goldman-Sachs Commodity Index, which is weighted toward energy markets, fell 2.45
to 206.88.

For the week, gold for June delivery fell $6.50, or 2.2 percent, to $281.40 an ounce on
the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the sixth drop in
seven weeks, leaving prices down 12 percent from a four-month high on Feb. 10.

``We are seeing demand at the $270 to $275 level, but there still seems to be selling
above that,'' which will send prices lower, Eckert said.

(Yeah, Chase is selling the crap out of gold, it's called NAKED gold shorts, and the day some shrewd central banks or savvy billionaires start demanding physical gold in abundance, they are screwed, blued and tatooed!)

Swiss voters last year approved a constitutional amendment severing the 100-year link
between the franc and gold, clearing the way for the central bank to begin selling bullion
from its reserve. Legislation authorizing the sales takes effect this spring.

(Actually, the gold-franc link was severed many years ago, but we don't believe in providing truth where BS and egregious lies work so much better. After all, our aim here is to scare the crap out of gold investors in order to drop the price, NOT to do anything like provide enlightenment that will move the price higher and endanger the bullion bankers' multi-million dollar country estates. So long as contrarians don't like gold, they'll place their money in bonds, which is where it belongs. OH, what dirty rotten scamsters we are!).

``The thinking is the Swiss will start selling in May,'' said Carlos Perez-Santalla,
president of Hudson River Futures in New York.

(At least, that's the BB boys' thinking and most earnest prayer. After all, if the Swiss ever put 2 and 2 together and realize it equals 4, then they might also realize that their government and bankers are about to sell the country down the river for the sake of protecting their banks' and American banks' various gold short positions...and that in selling their gold, they will trash their currency just as happened to the Canuck buck and the Aussie Dollar...then they would cancel their gold sale in a hearbeat. After all, why would any rational international investor want to hold their money in Swiss Francs any longer if it is nothing more than any old average trash fiat currency?)

The Swiss sales come as the Bank of England proceeds with a series of auctions aimed
at selling a total of 415 tons of bullion over several years. The Netherlands plans to sell
300 tons over five years.

(Of course, we don't want to let you know that the Netherlands completed most of their gold sales already. We much rather you think that is still a FUTURE sale than a realized one. Also, we would hate to inform you that the Bank of England gold sales have been conducted to obtain the LOWEST POSSIBLE PRICE, once again in order to protect a variety of gold shorting bullion banks that own the Prime Minister of England's corrupt ass).

At its most recent auction of gold, on March 21, the Bank of England sold about 25 tons
at $285.25 an ounce, $1.50 below the price just before the auction started, a reflection of
weak demand.

(Or maybe a reflection of the fact that the bullion banks ran the gold price up just before the auction to a level higher than the already pre-arranged winning LOWEST POSSIBLE BID gold price at the auction, thus making it appear as though the gold price weakened during the auction. OH, what dirty rotten scamsters we are!).

Bids were submitted for 75 tons, compared with offers for 107 tons at
the previous sale in January, the bank said.

(Of course, once again, we would hate to note that in both cases, the offers reflected OVER-subscription of the physical gold amount offered, that would not be keeping with the overtly biased anti-gold nature of this press release whereby we are trying to create the impression nobody wants gold anymore. OH, what dirty rotten scamsters we are!).

Gold has lost about a third of its value since 1996, partly because of concern over central
bank sales.

(Actually, gold has lost a third of its value since '96 because the Western financial Establishment is selling off its repositories of gold primarily to Eastern central banks (see WGC reports on CB inventories) in order to raise desperately needed funds for maintaining stock/bond market verticalities, a strong US Dollar, and to save failing government social programs. Oh...and of course (hate to forget!), most importantly, gold sales protect the enormous gold short positions of the major US bullion banks. However, thanks to obedient media bullhorns like Bloomberg, we are able to scare the Western public into believing that gold holds little value today. Aren't we dirty rotten little scamsters?)



Galearis@Cobra(too), oldgold re: Gold leasing by the ECB#2791704/01/00; 17:56:57

I too am in the FOA/Trail Guide/Cobra(too)camp vis-a-vis the BIS vis IMF war of currencies. The problem is clear in all this at least, that there is still leasing going on. But the source of the liguidity is not known - we only surmise that it is either from other CBs not signatories of the Washington Agreement, from signatories of the Washington Agreement who are leasing in defiance of their own policy, or from US sources (nefarious).

If the leasing liquidity is from the ECB camp, why would they do this? The easiest explanation IMHO is to stall off a gold explosion that would create havoc in all economies still "served" by the dollar as the world reserve currency. Of course this means ALL economies. One is reminded that the EURO is not yet a floating entity, and the EU is IMO not ready for open fiscal warfare with the US camp. One would be inclined to wonder if there is a wish to avoid the hazard of a fiscal miscarrage, if I could use this image, by premature provacation. Also, could the ECBs be "playing" the gold market and possibly picking up gold at bargain prices through buying intermediaries? So the capping campaign could be going on from both sides, as for now it would be in everyone's interest to maintain a low gold price to protect the US dollar. I am not a fiscal expert (can't you tell?), but this could be what is going on. And yes, the BIS could end this at any time - but chooses not to.

I believe that the BIS camp recognizes the fiscal value of having gold as a support to their EURO. (The importance to the ME would seem obvious to all.) If the dollar camp can keep their hyperactive and debt inflated economy afloat until the EURO is substantial, then it is to the benefit of all (including we lowly gold bugs) for them to do so. I do not feel that the EURO camp would want to rock this US Titanic - it has already encountered its iceberg and will subside without any help from outsiders. The BIS certainly knows this.

Really what I was after in my earlier question was any glimmer of information from others about other sources of leasing liquidity. What other CBs in the world could be involved in letting metal into the market in this form?

LeighTrail Guide#2791804/01/00; 18:19:58

Could you please just give us a hint about the timing of the "crackup?" Like, before the elections or after?
Netking"Crackup"#2791904/01/00; 18:37:17

Leigh - Greeting's/PTL - In my humble opinion...after the election. I can't see Buba & the avenues of influence under his control ruining the D's chances of getting back in for another term. Look for status quo until after the election & then hang on.
Peter AsherGullibility loves company. #2792004/01/00; 18:52:45

>>>> "New York prankster makes April fool of the media"

At least two television news crews were dispatched after a news release sent to the local media stated than an April Fools' Day parade would begin at 59th Street and march down Fifth Avenue, starting at noon.

Crews from CNN and the Fox affiliate WNYW duly arrived at noon, only to find the usual parade of people and traffic. <<<<<

Robin's comment just now. (She's HS class of '65) "I knew there would be trouble when all those kids I went to school with, got old enough to run the world."

Chris PowellHere's how the scheme against gold works#2792104/01/00; 21:49:23

11:25p EST Saturday, April 1, 2000

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Reginald H. Howe, proprietor of
and the analyst on whom GATA has relied so much to
explain government's likely relation to gold trading and the
details of gold banking, provides below elaboration on
exactly how the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange
Stabilization Fund may be suppressing the price of gold
by selling calls.

Howe's scenario fits everything GATA has seen in the
last year, and if it is correct, it also explains how certain
bullion banks always seem to know exactly where the
gold price is going to go and where it will stop and
reverse. They know because they are handling the U.S.
government's own orders to sell calls, and, knowing that,
they have, in effect, a license to print money -- or, rather,
to steal it.

What Howe writes below is the ball game, people. This
is very likely exactly how the grand scheme against
gold has been working. So please keep this on hand for
future reference and publicize it all you can.

U.S. members, please send this to your congressmen as
well and ask them to determine for you authoritatively
whether what Howe describes is happening. And everyone,
please post this as seems useful.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *


By Reginald H. Howe
April 1, 2000

While it is possible that the Exchange Stabilization
Fund has sold gold calls on the COMEX, I would expect
that to be a relatively minor activity. The calls to
focus on are over-the-counter calls written to bullion
banks to facilitate their gold loans or other gold
products designed to pressure the gold price.

Of course it is possible that the ESF has borrowed gold
for direct sale or to make gold loans to others. But
far more likely, in my view, the bullion bank borrows
the gold from a central bank, sells or loans it to a
client (for sale), and simultaneously hedges the
repayment obligation -- its own, its client's, or both
-- by purchasing calls.

As outstanding gold loans expand, the risk of selling
protective calls increases, and the ESF must step in as
others withdraw from this market.

Or, to take another example, while Barrick Gold said
recently that it had purchased its gold calls from
bullion banks, the bullion banks must have hedged their
exposure somehow. Under the circumstances, it is hard
to see how they could do this other than by purchasing
calls from a motivated seller with deep pockets and
high tolerance for risk.

I doubt that the ESF would risk having much in the way
of direct relationships with outsiders, even other
central banks, so I would expect its activities to be
camouflage through one or a very few big bullion banks.

Writing calls is an efficient way to underwrite all
manner of short-selling activities by bullion banks,
leaving them free to handle the details.

Turning to the questions that should now be asked of
the government, I was trying in my March 28 commentary
to keep them short and simple. To my mind, "trading,
directly or indirectly ... in gold or gold derivatives"
includes borrowing gold and selling or relending it.
However, one certainly could add to the "including but
not limited to" clause: "or participating in any way in
making gold loans."


GalearisT.C repost. Maybe everyone should read this again...#2792204/01/00; 22:19:37

My jaw dropped when I read this the other day. I reposted it on Kitco and got a few responses, but there too they did not seem to get it. Everybone on both forums just seemed to pass it by that day and I did not want to repost on April Fools. So I do so now. Please read and ponder the meaning of these words....
TownCrier (03/31/00; 15:04:12MDT - Msg ID:27856)
Laying claim to the small thing here
This being first notice day for delivery intentions on the active April gold futures contract traded on the New York Mercantile's COMEX division, the longs came out in force in preference for physical settlement rather than cash.
Precisely 7,743 contracts (of approx 100 troy ounces apiece) were held up for delivery by the end of April. This entails the shifting ownership of 774,300 ounces...or 24 tonnes. And we've only just begun. When the trading day began, there were over 10,000 April contracts in open interest, so this number is sure to swell somewhat as the month progresses.

Walking away with a substantial portion of this gold so far is Deutsche Bank (2,542 contracts) and Cargill (2,130 contracts).

Just thought you might like to know
Tiger may just be making a bigger splash than one might think, yes? Does anyone remember that TOCOM thingy? You know, the one about palladium?

Cavan ManHello Trail Guide and all.....#2792304/01/00; 22:23:34

Just returned from a trail of a different sort; transported 5 people 1500 miles for about $150. That's incredibly inexpensive (so far anyway).

87 octane at $1.50 is a real bargain!

Good to see you posting again friend. Kind regards....CM

Clint HHipplebeck Msg ID:27327#2792404/02/00; 00:26:32

Hipplebeck, in your post Msg ID:27327 you stated that very, very few people have ever handled a real gold coin.

A statistic used in the retail coin selling industry is that 97% of the American people have never held a gold coin in their hand in their life. I think that is close to true.

If this is the case then less than 3% could own gold coins, probably less than 2%. If just another 3% of the people started to buy gold US sales could double. We GOLDHEARTS are really in the minority and the market is truly very thin.

Another thought. If $25 per week or $100 per month in unexpected expenses were added to every household budget in America, how would this affect retail sales in all product categories? What other areas would it affect?

Fuel prices have captured a huge portion of all budgets. Many changes will have to come. Its a law.

HI - HATGalearis Town Crier 27922 Deliverance#2792504/02/00; 05:49:48

If these delivery intentions are correct, this is exactly the beginning set-off of what F.O.A. says in the latest Trail Walk. "Understand that the largest gold rush will be
from the paper gold arena into real gold".

These delivery intentions appear astounding. I have searched around various net venues and I can find no mention of this. How could this be so? Where is this delivery intention information available?

ZenideaPeculiar hunch !#2792604/02/00; 06:37:22

Tell me if I am mad or just imagining things ?. I frequent a certain bullion dealer occasionally and notice that prior to and consumately when the price of any one of the main four precious metals is about to or likely to increase/spike the array of saleable goods on show changes in the display cases seemingly consistant with the graphs. I mean the larger ingots and bullion coins of either or any of the above foursaid vanish from direct view from the general public.
Palladium had gone for ages , next was Platinum and now except for the items holding a high premium/weight ratio , the investment Gold coins have vanished, yes indeedy even down to the 5oz Au bars now and actual factual the 250 ounce Silver bars have vanished from view as well just recently.
Personally I dont bother with the celebration/commemorative fancy hype coins ; to me its akin to a teenagers fad of paying $20.00 instead of 2.00 for the exact same cheap hat except it got a marketeer's name on it nor am I much interested in the under 2 oz-zies unless its for gifts.
The time frame of Platinum and it rise and dissapearance from shelves was a couple of months shortly after Palladium. I notice that when they vanish they can be purchased over the counter for awhile but after that the feedback is we havnt any of the larger ones left in stock. That may simply well be.
Immmmmmmmmmmm at least to me it seems interestingly peculiar
enough to arounse my curiousity to a vague suspicion regarding this discursive correlation. Any comments on this brothers and sisters, or is this another delusionary symptom of Gold fever ?. Warm regards ! :).

HI - HATZenidea 27926 AUCONFUSE#2792704/02/00; 07:00:51

It seems the more one thinks one knows about gold market, the more confusing it becomes. Several weeks ago Dealers here in U.S. were only buying coins back for under spot because of a so-called glut. Yet gold is being exported out of here in substatial amounts, and its not been made clear where its coming from. I guess all you can really know for sure is that which is in your oun hands.
Harley DavidsonGood morning All.#2792804/02/00; 07:48:31

And this just in from my morning newspaper. The Raleigh News@Observer Business section includes a section from the Wall Street Journal every Sunday. Here I found an article, "Safe Havens are Hard to Find." , by Karen Hube The half-page article begins "The hair-raising swings in the stock market recently are prompting many investors to look for ways to protect their assets." blah, blah, blah. Then, "So consider ALL [my caps] options carefully." Then ALL options are listed - "Money-market funds, Six-month CDs, Short-term bond funds, One-year Treasurys, Municipal bonds, and Stable-value funds."

No mention of gold...what a shame. I think I will try to email Ms Hube and inquire as to why she doesn't think gold is a "Safe Haven."

ZenideaHi Hi-Hat. msg 27927#2792904/02/00; 07:56:57

Nice to meet you Hi-Hat. Gee I didnt know that they could do that , i.e buy back under spot ! that is assuming that they the dealer is alledgeing this with facts to back statements like that up ?. Some time back I bought Palladium when it was cheap just before the first spike at the very time it peaked out I went down to sell it off and the responce was that they the staff were under instructions not to buy it. ( dispite it showing up on there buy/sell electronic board.) Nevertheless after abit of arm twisting I managed to obtain a committment that they would buy it back that next day so the next morning I wandered down and reminding them of there promise managed to hoc it off at a handsome profit.
I agree with you Hi-Hat , The solid AU in the hand is what counts ( or kept under me hat )because , re TOCOM and that dirty piece of work re: freezing the Palladium just recently etc it seems ever more and more apparant that the bullion dealers around the traps hand-shakes are dubious contracts.
I will eat My-Hat if I see Palladium at those prices again
Hi-Hat and I will be buying it en-masse if it does and this particular bunch of Criminals on the other side of the law can shovel it. I wonder if there is a message in Palladium for Gold ?. smiles !.

RossLGalearis - Hi Hat - declared intent for delivery#2793004/02/00; 08:07:43

Most of the positions represented by the open interest on the COMEX will be closed out for cash settlement or rolled over to a later month. Declaring intent for delivery on "first notice day" can for the most part be viewed as a bluff in a big poker game. What matters is how many and who holds the contracts open at the end of the trading month. For example, Monday I could go long for a 100 oz. contract and declare intent to take delivery. If I close out the position in a week, then my declared intent is meaningless.
HI - HATRoss L 27930 TIMING#2793104/02/00; 08:40:50

Thanks for your knowledge of the situation. The possability still remains that maybe Deustch Bank and Cargill are bluffing and maybe they are not. We may be at the point certain big players are going to jump ship. The first ones to do so have first legal claim on physical delivery of comex stocks before Force Majoreur.
LelandBest Post on Kitco in a Looonggg Time#2793204/02/00; 09:53:12

Gwyz deserves kudos...
Galearis@RossL and HI-Hat also an interesting repost from rhody at Kitco#279334/2/2000; 11:58:46

Thank you sirs for contributing the comments on the Towne Crier repost. My learning curve continues in the up channel.
I suppose the bluff will not be a bluf at some point and chaos will reign. On this very subject I submit a repost from my twin spirit over on Kitco. There was little response from the day-trader element, and he felt that the matter would be better fodder for a muse on this worthy forum. I agree (and will continue to pester him to join these exaulted ranks on USAGOLD)....

Date: Sun Apr 02 2000 09:26
Copyright © 1999 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

So when will that be?

If you go to you
will find graphs of number of daily transfers of gold and silver in both paper and M oz of gold. By extrapolation of the channels produced, the downward trend lines end ( dead market ) in May, 2002 for the paper transfers ( paper gold market ) and Dec, 2004 for physical transfers in M oz daily. There is about a year and a half difference between the two projections, so which one is the more accurate in projecting a dead market in gold? I think the answer must be death of the paper transfers, as it is the paper market which is the main mechanism in the downward manipulation of the gold price. If you compare the two graphs, you will find that there is about 30 oz of paper gold traded
for every oz of physical. This meaans that some ( about 3% ) of this paper trading must be rationalized by a real transfer for this this market to continue. On a ratio of one for 30, this market will die in 2002 because there will be insufficient physical gold to maintain this ratio. So in about one year, paper gold must die on the LBMA, and I predict the LBMA will do a TOCOM on gold like TOCOM imposed on palladium.

The problem here is that doing a TOCOM on gold will violate
the Jamaica Accord of cheap oil for cheap gold. FWIW and
would someone else please look at these graphs and tell me I'm wrong because these figures indicate my pension self destructs in 2002.

IronHeadSirs HI HAT and RossL#279344/2/2000; 14:58:06

Interesting observations on First Notice which just occured.

What would be the ramifications if all the little guys, ie. "me" and the other Merry Pranksters, anounced and decided to take delivery of physical? Could this be the monkey wrench to queer the gears of Da Boyz? Just a lazy Sunday thought.


HI - HATIronHead 27934 MONKEYS#279354/2/2000; 16:39:36

Yes, they would take notice, but there would have to be an Army of us. Each contract is for a 100 ozs.. At Friday close each contract was priced at $274.40. Therefore to take delivery of 1 contract you need to come up with $27,840.00. Last figures I could find showed Comex stocks at about 2,000,000, ozs. So as you can see us little guys are the Monkeys in the futures game.

Deustch Bank or Cargill however would have no problem swinging the bat if the time came.
Cargill having these many contracts on gold intrigued me so I did a little research on them. They are the largest privately held corporation in the United States. I thought they only "did" agricultural products but apparently they play in gold too. One thing interesting about them is that they have an arm of themselves called Cargill AIF, {Asset Investment & Finance Group}. This Group will act as Agent for and take clients in as a partner too, according to their web page spiel, "AIF will provide liquidity for a wide variety of transaction types and assets including assets requireing a high level of due dilegence to determine value or excessive management attention to realize that value". Cargill giving delivery intentions on way over 2000 contracts in the Comex cesspool would call for this type of service. One other interesting thing is that april 00 open interest is a little over 10,000 contracts , while may 00 is so far only...1....BUT june 00 is at 78,000+. So June is shaping up to be some kind of Battleground.

HenriHI-HAT, RossL & IronHead#279364/2/2000; 17:08:17

Yes, the paltry open interest of forward months is evidence that the call for delivery is real. This is because most gold in the marketplace, real or imagined, is "rolled over into the new contract months. When such large deliveries are called for, the "roll" can't happen. If it is a bluff, the open interest pick-up will be the first clue.
Peter AsherYou gotta see this!!#279374/2/2000; 17:26:41

My. Etna blowing smoke rings
Leigh"Depression Memories" in the HOF#279384/2/2000; 17:35:15

Would anyone like to second Harley Davidson's and my suggestion that the Hall of Fame open a section for posters' memories of the Great Depression? (That is, if MK and Town Crier agree.) We've had some fantastic posts lately from IronHead, onlychild, VanRip, and others. Thanks!
Cavan Manpeterasher 27937#279394/2/2000; 18:00:10

Great is Thy Glory O' Lord.

Great pix!

LeighBill Murphy Attacked and Injured#279404/2/2000; 18:17:47

Last night Bill Murphy was walking home from a restaurant, and a mysterious assailant punched him on the side of the face. He said he doesn't think his jaw is broken, but he is badly bruised and is having trouble talking. Just four or five weeks ago Bill's car was stolen from outside his home. Hmmm.....
IronHeadMonkeys In The Parlor#279414/2/2000; 18:17:55

Sirs HI HAT, Henri, RossL

If the Comex pantry only has 2 mil ounces- that equals about 20,000 contracts,no? Surely we can muster via the web a few friends, (I'm good for 1 contract- divided by 5 cohorts = about 6 large ea.) to put the gold market into a whole new light.

Even half the stores in delivery mode should wake up the current players in charge.

We could even set MK and the USA faithful up for life. Oops, there might be a freudian slip in here somewhere.

What got me thinking was when my commodity broker mentioned on Friday that in 10 years at the business, he never delivered 1 contract of gold....YET


el St.OneThe Crash Report#279424/2/2000; 19:22:37

----Part 4-----Closing Comments--------

3 Things Last Week
-- Personal spending grew 1 percent in February, more than twice the rate of income. Savings is at a record low
-- Republicans joined Clinton in the fight to make stock options available to every employee.
-- Mr. Levitt (SEC) confirmed that there is great fear of margin rates and asset backed stock purchases but agreed with Greenspan
about not touching margin rates.

No one wants the bull market to slow and no one will do anything to control the speculation except install trading curbs, circuit
breakers and offer verbal warnings and written reports. As the bubble continues the main goal from the government is to encourage
investing in stocks from any source of capital. This main goal combined with the lack of dedicated action has all but guaranteed a
horrible end.
You don't try and stop the crash on the downside but on the upside.


Brady Willett

TownCrierDisscussion for Sir RossL on Msg 27930 to Sir Galearis#279434/2/2000; 20:45:09

Your comment: "Most of the positions represented by the open interest on the COMEX will be closed out for cash settlement or rolled over to a later month."

True. Just as open interest in the COMEX June gold futures has recently climbed to 78,900 contracts, the position in the April futures was also quite large a few weeks ago in advance of it reaching delivery month. Positions were closed out by the thousands (with many players likely reestablishing their positions with June contracts) in advance of the arrival of first delivery day...5,463 contracts being settled (cash) one day prior to First Notification day, leaving just over 10,000 contracts in open interest. Clearly, as you say, the majority of April's past open interest was settled with cash.

Your comment: "Declaring intent for delivery on "first notice day" can for the most part be viewed as a bluff in a big poker game. What matters is how many and who holds the contracts open at the end of the trading month. For example, Monday I could go long for a 100 oz. contract and declare intent to take delivery. If I close out the position in a week, then my declared intent is meaningless."

This example of yours I don't quite understand. If you have an April long position, (let's say that you established many months ago at some given price (let's say $275)), your announcement of delivery intentions is effectively your exit from this position. You will therefore be paying COMEX the $275 multiplied by 100 ounces. Meanwhile, COMEX will contact the entity with the longest standing short postion to tell them they must yield up the gold that they theoretically sold when they took their short position many months ago at some contract price (let's say $273, for example). COMEX pays them $273 multiplied by 100 ounces, and expects them to make good on their word to deliver the gold "as promised" before the last business day of April.

To give more of the picture....I stated in TownCrier (03/31/00; 15:04:12MDT - Msg ID:27856): "Walking away with a substantial portion of this gold so far is Deutsche Bank (2,542 contracts) and Cargill (2,130 contracts)." What I omitted for sake of brevity was that The Bank of Nova Scotia found itself named on the delivery side for 5,567 contracts'-worth (over 17 tonnes) of this total gold in question for delivery. Another agent, Prudential, must deliver 1,716 contracts'-worth, but they were further to be found as an agent on the receiving side for 2,380 contracts.

As we've stated months in the past, if they don't have the gold on hand to deliver, they will either try to "pass the buck" by calling for delivery themselves on other long contracts that they may establish for that express purpose, or else they must turn to the physical spot market.

I have noticed many people over many months "lick their chops" in regard to the COMEX inventory and say "If only we all got together or had Bill Gates buy these contracts and take delivery, THEN we would see something!"

I would suggest to these same people that each time they would please REFRAIN from buying a long paper contract they are helping to destroy this bogus pricing system to the downside; and further, every time they buy a single ounce from their favorite gold dealer they are removing it from the available physical market which aggrevates supply tightness to bust the price discovery process wide ultimately revalue gold to the upside.

((by the way, thank you, Sir Galearis, for picking this COMEX delivery item up again and generating additional discussion where my effort had failed to do so))

Sir HI-HAT asked about the original post, "If these delivery intentions are correct...These delivery intentions appear astounding. I have searched around various net venues and I can find no mention of this. How could this be so? Where is this delivery intention information available?"

I obtain these numbers through a financial news service to which Michael subscribes...and which requires an access code. Unfortunately, I know of no source of this data that is available free on the internet, so you are left in the position to either trust me on this, or else wait until the mainstream media chooses to give coverage effort to something that historically they have had no interest in whatsoever (other than for routine disparagement for the reasons that are commonly discussed at the forum).

Gandalf the WhiteThink about this Leigh --#279444/2/2000; 20:59:58

Leigh (4/2/2000; 18:17:47MDT - Msg ID:27940)
Bill Murphy Attacked and Injured
The way that the Hobbits read the story is that someone "coldcocked" him as he was returning from a evening of relaxing and song at a nearby watering hole. Well, first, Mr. Murphy is a former pro football player (from an Ivy League College), an Offensive End, if I remember correctly. (and therefore not a small weak stature of a person) Who would think about taking on such a type person in a fisticuffs adventure ? Well it appears, -- "ONLY a Chicken by attacking from the dark!" EITHER Mr. Murphy needs a bodyguard (and a great number of Hurons are volunteering ) OR, we need to find out a number of additional informational items -- LIKE was he telling COWBOY jokes ? -- does he sing offkey ?
I know he can take a joke also, as he is a little bit Irish!

elevator guy@ Bill Murphy, a decent man#279454/2/2000; 21:51:03

If the story is true about Bill Murphy, I would like to offer my condolences.

It is the most base sort of coward who atacks from behind, and I'm sure there is a special place in Hell reserved for those who commit such shallow atrocities.

Bill, you are decent human being, and I wish you a speedy recovery.

TownCrierAnother gift to the U.S. from the Japanese Finance Ministry#279464/2/2000; 22:02:43

HEADLINE: Japan acting firmly on 'troubling' forex

The Bank of Japan has intervened in the Forex markets this morning following Friday's sag of the dollar to 102.03 yen in New York trade, its lowest level in almost three months.Japan's Finance Minister, Kiichi Miyazawa, said of Friday's rise in the yen's exchange rate versus the dollar, "The currency movement looked a bit too abrupt." [From another article at]

He made the remark after the authorities sold yen in the currency market and sent the dollar spiking up by two yen. He also told reporters that, "Volatility is troubling and we are responding firmly," however, the Bank of Japan's action today to sell yen to buy dollars sent the U.S. currency vaulting from the 102 level up well beyond 105 in current overseas action.So why is the Japanese government trying to override the market forces that are pushing for a stronger yen? Their response is that they feel that a weak yen is needed to bring about a recovery from Japan's worst economic downturn following the last world war.

National currencies will always be used to do it's issuer's bring about one economic condition or another as deemed to be in the national "best interest". The best an individual citizen can hope for is the availability of an individual, independent monetary asset (such as gold) that is left immune from such chicanery. Then, he can thereby gain a degree of personal sovereignty as a "nation unto himself" least as far as his wealth is concerned.

Don't be shy about using these Japanese interventions which strengthen the dollar to your advantage. Redeem those temporarily(?) strong dollars for something of lasting value.

elevator guyBill Murphy attacked (For speaking the Truth?)#279474/2/2000; 22:02:58

I just read my e-mail, and now I've heard it from Bill. Its a true story.

I kind of dont think its TPTB, because they have such sophisticated means of nutralizing opponents. I dont think they need to use street thug methods. (Arkansas)

If they wanted Bill out of the game, he would most assuredly be gone already, and without much ado.

On the flip side, its possible they (TPTB) would rather have an opponent simply withdraw from the fray of his own volition, rather than immortalizing and enshrining the leader of a cause by outright removal. That might serve to unify and propel a movement into front page status, which would end up having the reverse effect desired.

IronHeadTown Crier RE: 27943 "Tongue Back In Mouth"#279484/2/2000; 22:39:33

Sir TC- Very good point on long paper feeding the shorts; a converse of short covering feeding a rally (?)

I believe Sir Farfel has addressed this before with the summation that if the long paper would disappear, the shorts would have no body to leech off of.

Anyways, I was just dreaming of a USA forum hostile takeover of the Comex commissary, ala George A. Custer and the buffalo. Hmmm.... With that thought in mind, and his getting more than he bargained for, perhaps I'll just call you nice folks this week and "GET PHYSICAL".


Chris PowellGATA chairman assaulted in Dallas#279494/2/2000; 23:16:03

12:30a EST Monday, April 3, 2000

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

I received the following disturbing news a little while
ago from GATA Chairman Bill Murphy. Maybe it means nothing. But if this stuff keeps happening, it surely WILL mean something.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

By Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Sunday, April 2, 2000

Last night was a bummer. After working all day, I
walked over to the local hot spot restaurant to have
a good meal and blow off some steam. As my car
was stolen a month ago and has not been replaced
yet, I had to walk. About 1 a.m. I left the restaurant
after listening to some great tunes and headed for
home on foot.

About 20 yards outside away from the restaurant,
somebody out of nowhere socked me in the left
cheek. Down I went. All I remember is being
picked up by people. I don't think my jaw is broken,
but I can hardly talk and my right cheek (which I fell
on) is a mess.

I have lunch tomorrow with a money manager who flew
in to Dallas from London to meet clients. He won't forget
my appearance, as I look like I went a round with Mike

Today I was taken by friends to the passport photo
place to have a permanent record made of the one-punch

First,my car is stolen and yet money is left in the stolen
car when it is recovered. Now this haymaker on my way
home. Were these two random events occurring a month
apart from each other, or are there more sinister forces at
work? Is GATA getting to close to the flame?

I don't know the answers, but it is all a bit unnerving.


TownCrierSir IronHead, "...perhaps I'll just call you nice folks this week..."#279504/2/2000; 23:21:06

With Japan currently helping out the purchasing power of the dollar, and with analysts calling for Microsoft to trade down 10% on Monday due to the breakdown in settlement talks (possibly leading to weakness in stocks (or maybe even a blow-off top in techs based on the big competition being cut down at the knees(??))) this looks to be one of those turning points, and therefore a wise time to take action. I have every confidence that Michael will treat you right should you decide to call.
TownCrierHEADLINE: Microsoft stock seen sliding about 10 pct on Monday#279514/2/2000; 23:42:58

Would Microsoft owners be as riled over a $10 fall in share price from $100 to $90 as gold-sector investors seem to get about a $3 fall in the price of gold? Lor' ha' mercy if they do.

By most accounts, however, those with an eye toward acquisition of the yellow metal (instead of a paper derivative of the metal) continue to welcome these buying opportunities at better prices than the time before. Rather like fate smiling on their situation to be in a position to buy again...

ElwoodLeigh's HOF nomination#279524/3/2000; 0:01:03

I'll add another second to Leigh's nomination.
FarfelKeep Up the Attack, Don't Let the Bastards Get You Down!#279534/3/2000; 0:06:32

With poor Bill Murphy recovering from his recent attack, then other goldbugs must step in and fill the vacuum.
Do NOT be intimidated, I know I am not.

I send my best wishes to Bill, who I recently met at the CMRE dinner in New York. What a fine gentleman!

Anyway, here is my latest little contribution to "the cause:"

For those who are interested, one of the former senior partners of Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, is running for the Senate in New Jersey.

His ads proclaim that he is a sensitive man who is looking out for the best interests of the American worker. Furthermore, his ads state that via his senior role at Goldman Sachs, he was a key figure in facilitating today's prosperity in America.

UNLESS, of course, you are a gold miner, whose employer went bankrupt and tossed you out on the street.

UNLESS, of course, you are a gold investor, who has lost tons of money playing in a rigged market, manipulated by leading members of the gold carry trade (such as Goldman Sachs).

If you think Mr. Corzine should be reminded about his major, nefarious role in the decimation of the gold industry and the decimation of your bank account, then you can contact him via his campaign manager, Mr. Steve Goldstein, at the following E-MAIL address:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Remember, gold is a political metal, and until the politicians and their investment house bosses stop crapping on it, then it will never go anywhere.



OROel St.One - Margin reqs and the Fed#279544/3/2000; 2:33:27

You may have noticed that the securities brokers are increasing margin requirements on their own. Particularly for the smaller investors.

Tiger's Robertson is still sticking to his tech wreck story (with which I agree wholeheartedly). The tightening action by some brokers on margin requirements was the reason for the Jan and April 99 declines in internet stocks. The smaller names had never recovered from the hit. The tightening had the effect of forced sales on the stocks.

Perversely, some of the stocks that weakened as a result of the tightening were internet brokerages.

The months following the margin tightening saw a rise in margin debt, which took off again in Oct 99-Jan 00.

In effect, market participants (brokers) were taking appropriate action to reduce margin on high volatility stocks without Fed dictation of margin policy. Very good.

What the Fed should have done was to start raising rates earlier than it did and try to pressure the Klyntonites to reduce importation - or, better yet, keep rates low and get the dollar to decline before further imports raise the US debt position to more impossible levels. The decision to raise rates whenever the dollar weakened was well beyond foolish economically, the only reason to do it was to allow further US absorption of mega-quantities of imports so that people feel better during the election year.

The price inflation is going to happen whatever the Fed does, the only questions are how high it would go and when would it start. The Fed actions delay the start but increase the depths to which the dollar would eventually fall and the rate at which it would reach that point. Perhaps there is something, an arrangement, that could be negotiated for the slow unwinding of the US debt position, for which buying more time is a positive. However, no such solution seems forthcoming, and to be frank, there is no possibility for a solution that does not involve a colossal American default - either debt is not repaid, or it is inflated away. A long term "go slow" solution would still require a 70% drop in the dollar just to get the debt repayment started. That kind of drop in the dollar would force prices within the US to quadruple and would be a default of 70% on the nearly $9 trillion dollar American debt held in foreign hands.

RossLTown Crier#279554/3/2000; 4:45:55

The first notice day explanation in Msg ID:27930 is how it was explained to me by a commodities broker in 1993. I haven't played any gambling games on the COMEX since then, so I don't know if it's changed. However, I did once declare intent to receive delivery on a 100 oz. contract and then later close it out. That was on the advice of my broker at the time.
JonMsg for Farfel re: Corzine#279564/3/2000; 4:53:13

Thanks for calling this to our attention. I sent an e-mail as suggested by you. I sincerely hope many others will follow.
Incidentally, I read that the new "gold" dollar coin tarnishes very quickly.

Hill Billy MitchellRepost: Official release#279574/3/2000; 4:55:54

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: March 31, 2000

Rates for Thursday, March 30

Federal funds 6.11

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.88
10-year 6.06
20-year 6.26
30-year 5.89

SteveHJapan#279584/3/2000; 6:35:51

Heard this first hand from a US resident of Japan:

-- Japanese newspapers discuss lopping two zero's off the Yen AND aligning 1:1 with the EURO!

LeighPossible Ad Campaign for WGC#279594/3/2000; 7:44:08

FOA's post the other night, in which he mentioned about investors who are given paper and told, "This is the gold portion of your portfolio," got me thinking. Why not have the WGC, GATA, or some other group EDUCATE these innocent investors that they are in danger of being fleeced? What about a "PAPER GOLD ISN'T GOLD" campaign. Since the WGC is fond of dressing up their actors in character costumes (remember the Spanish explorers last year?), how about King Solomon being told by a sleazy-looking courtier, "This, O King, is the gold portion of your portfolio." King Solomon would roar back, "Gold? That's paper! THIS (indicating his shining palace) is gold!" Or have a woman with children fleeing from a war scene. She tries to bribe the guard with paper gold. The guard looks disdainfully at her and says, "Ma'm, I know real gold when I see it." The woman wails, "But my investment counselor told me this was the gold portion of my portfolio!" Or perhaps an ad in investment magazines like Forbes, Barron's, etc. could give details about the gold carry trade and why paper gold is a dangerous investment. Just a thought.
LelandMicrosoft --- Sliding#279604/3/2000; 7:49:36

Let's keep our eyes on this one today.
LelandFrom Yahoo#279614/3/2000; 8:44:08

MSFT target is $60
by: keiserisbrama (34/M/cactusjack, AZ)
4/3/00 10:36 am
Msg: 171844 of 171861
Based on violation of Anti Trust law ...judge will layeth the smack downeth on Uncle BILL

USAGOLDToday's Report: Gold Down on Japanese Move Against Yen#279624/3/2000; 8:50:15

4/3/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/3/00): Gold was down in the early going on reports that
the Bank of Japan had intervened in currency markets to bolster the dollar
against the yen. The yen is plummeting as this is written underscoring a
nearly one decade old policy on the part of Japan to beggar their
trans-Pacific American neighbor with an artificially low currency -- a policy
designed to boost exports. Simultaneously, the Clinton administration did a
considerable amount of grumbling over the weekend about its trading partners
import policies that keep American goods out of those markets. We've
witnessed this bureaucratic version of hair-pulling, wailing and gnashing of
teeth before -- it is all a sound and fury signifying nothing.

As for gold, there was nothing particularly striking in the news that would
justify the nearly $2 drop. The yellow metal was firm but range bound in both
Asia and Europe overnight. The downside came in as the New York market
opened. Austria announced its selling program which falls in line with what's
been granted them under the Washington accord. Austrian central bank
director, Peter Zoellner told Reuters that the bank had sold between 30 and
50 tons last year. "There has been no change in our policy on gold sales," he
said. "All this means is that our sales are now taking place in accordance
with the Washington agreement and are fully transparent, which was what the
market wants." Standard Bank reports gold well supported with good physical
demand at the $275 level. It briefly got to $280 during the London session
but ran out of steam.

That's for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.

JourneymanKing Solomon's enlightenment @Leigh#279634/3/2000; 8:56:28

RE: Leigh (4/3/2000; 7:44:08MDT - Msg ID:27959)
Possible Ad Campaign for WGC

Soloman's enlightenment --- Brilliant! Do you work for a high-priced ad agency???

High regards,

LelandTop Mutual Fund Holders, MCFT#279644/3/2000; 9:12:19

Fidelity Magellan Fund Inc

Vanguard Index 500 Fund

College Retirement Equities Fund-Stock Account

American Century-Ultra

Fidelity Growth and Income Portfolio

Janus Twenty Fund

Vanguard Institutional Index Fund

Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund

Vanguard Index-Growth Fund

Janus Fund


TownCrierIt doesn't get much clearer than this...check this out#279654/3/2000; 9:27:46

In several months throughout 1999 prior to the Washington Agreement there were occasions when the gold reserves of the Euro system of central banks declined by small amounts that were never explained by the ECB other than a vague statement about a nation honoring prior commitments. At the time, we speculated that these small reductions in gold were likely by the hands of the renowned Austrian Mint. Today's news helps to cast better light on that speculation with the statement that some of these current Austrian sales are indeed destined for the Austrian Mint for coin production. Bank Director Peter Zoellner said the announcement was within accordance with Washington Agreement, and was to provide full transparency for the gold market. Based on Austrian bank sales since 1993, this announcement reveals that their program of overall sales would actually be slowing.

Now here's the really juicy news in mainstream media black and white. Reuters reports "The Austrian bank said it was selling the gold under a system operated by the Bank for International Settlements."

TownCrier's bottom line: Somebody please tell the LBMA that there is a new kid in town...

TownCrierHEADLINE: IMF says euro zone outlook brightens#279664/3/2000; 9:46:01

Economic growth is accelerating to an expected 3.2 percent for 2000 while price inflation is projected to be 1.7 percent. The International Monetary Fund said Euroland growth would best be facilitated through monetary policies that ensured price stability and fiscal policies among nations that encouraged public saving.

A cautionary note for those invested in the U.S.: according to Reuters, the IMF also said that "the downside risks for the euro economic area were mainly subject to uncertainties surrounding the timing and intensity of a downturn in the United States." It would seem that candid entities see the U.S. downturn as inevitable.

TownCrierHEADLINE: IMF says euro very undervalued, prospects solid#279674/3/2000; 9:55:45

IMF European Department Deputy Director Jacques Artus said "From a medium-term standpoint we would view the euro needing to appreciate, vis a vis the U.S. dollar, by 30 percent or more."

He further said, "In the past 20 or 30 years (European) central banks have been acting to reduce inflation. They have spent the past 20 or 30 years trying to squeeze inflation out of the system. This to a large extent has been done. The task today is not to squeeze inflation out of the system, the task is to avoid it coming back."

TownCrierFed provides rather "largish" overnight add in light of recent long term RPs and coupon passes#279684/3/2000; 10:02:49

With two 28-day term repurchase agreements on the books, and in the wake of two recent permanent additions to banking system reserves via coupon passes, the Federal Reserve provided yet another $3.5 billion in overnight funds with half a week left remaining in the current reserve maintenance period.

Fed funds this morning were trading 1/4 percent higher than the Fed's target rate of 6 percent.

beestingPlanned Expansion of the NEW WORLD ORDER Banking Facilities!#279694/3/2000; 10:08:44

HSBC(Hong Kong Shanghi Banking Co.){{Former Central Bank of Hong Kong with headquarters in London England}} has bid for all the shares of CCF(Credit Commercial de France) for a total consideration of 11 Billion EURO's.(Click above URL for full story)

beesting comment:
Once this take over is completed part of Great Britian's banking system(in France) will be using EURO's...FWIW!

Lady Leigh, why don't you e-mail your suggestion to the World Gold Council....Who knows, they may use it!!!


DreamerAmericans and Gold#279704/3/2000; 10:18:03

>Clint H (04/02/00; 00:26:32MDT - Msg ID:27924)
>Hipplebeck Msg ID:27327
>Hipplebeck, in your post Msg ID:27327 you stated that
>very, very few people have ever handled a real gold coin.

>A statistic used in the retail coin selling industry is
>that 97% of the American people have never held a gold
>coin in their hand in their life. I think that is close to true.

Greetings, all. Been reading for a few weeks and thought I'd add an observation on this point. Inspired by a discussion on another message board (of a different topic entirely) about two months ago I started carrying around a $5 Gold Eagle (1/10 oz) in my pocket with my change. I show it to people from time to time.

I work in an industrial design firm and many of our employees make substantial amounts of money and are more or less active in the investment world. (Not me, darn it... squirrelling it away when I can.) Without exception, when I've showed them the coin, not only is it the first time they've handled a gold coin, it's the first time they've ever *seen* one up close. The really ironic part is that they're never very impressed by it (it is kinda small... donations of larger coins gladly accepted for educational purposes) but they all go mad for those Golden Dollars (aka Brass Bucks.) One or two of them have bought gold coins from me, more for the novelty than anything else, I think. (I'm not a "dealer"... I just have a few, and when people I know say, "I'd like one of those," I offer to sell them one.) But I can't for the life of me get even one of them to plunk a few dollars into gold or silver as insurance for when the bough breaks.

I'm going to keep trying, because rich friends are good to have. *smile* I have also started carrying a Silver Eagle around. They're much more impressive, size and heftwise, and they have a very nice ring when you flip them. A few people have seen this already and have bought a few just because they're so pretty.

It also makes an interesting visual prop in discussions about finance. When they ask me why I carry gold and silver, I say, "Because I like to have *real money* in my pocket." To the blank look this usually gets I take out a quarter or something, or a FRN, and say, "This is currency." Then my Eagles and say, "This is *money.*" Then I give them the sixty-second explanation of the distinction. Everyone knows the old saw about remembering what you see versus what you hear, and this is no different. It shouldn't make any difference, but people seem to have an easier time grasping the concept of fiat currency versus money-as-stored-value when they're looking at examples of each.

Plus it makes you feel rich to walk around with a silver eagle in your pocket, bulky as they are. *smile* So I recommend giving it a try. I'd love to report on how it makes one feel to walk around with a gold Eagle (a big one) in one's pocket, but that will have to wait until I can afford some for my stash.


TownCrierHey everybody, check out who is Number One. It's YOU fine folks!#279714/3/2000; 10:19:58

"I'd like to thank the Academy..."

And when you get there, type "Gold" in the Search box and see what you get...


TownCrierDelivery notices for April have increased to 8,862 contracts...27.6 tonnes#279724/3/2000; 10:29:16

Delivery intentions posted this morning increased the total on COMEX April gold futures by 1,119 contracts. Once again, Duetsche Bank was the largest net recipient, on the heavy side of 200 additional contracts.
FarfelJon Corzine for Senator of New Jersey? Screw Him!#279734/3/2000; 10:30:08

For those who did not read my earlier post today, let me note that Mr.Jon Corzine was a senior partner in Goldman Sachs this past decade and as such, one can only assume he helped orchestrate the nefarious gold carry trade that has decimated the gold industry and destroyed the fortunes of many gold investors, myself included. All evidence points to Goldman Sachs (utilizing subsidiary J.Aron) as a key player in the gold carry trade.

So when Mr. Corzine tells the world that he has been a key participant in bringing prosperity to America, we all know that so-called prosperity is limited primarily to Wall Street investment houses and the high tech sector while certainly excluding the vital commodity producers of the nation.

When Mr. Corzine speaks of his sensitivity for the American worker, he obviously does not include the thousands of unemployed gold miners or bankrupted farmers in that category.

When Mr. Corzine announces his intentions to represent American interests on the international front, then one must ask how other nations feel toward such a man who played a leading role within the investment houses and hedge funds that raided various foreign currencies or destroyed the value of various developing nations' key commodities, such as gold and silver.

As reported by the New York Times, Mr. Corzine is already in hot water for various anti-Italian comments he has made during the campaign, for example, when meeting a New Jersey Italian-American for the first time and discovering the man worked in the cement business, Mr. Corzine is said to have responded, "Oh, so you make cement shoes?" You can well imagine the Italian-American reaction to that little comment.

Well, I say the man needs more hot water thrown his way. A lot more!

So, pursuant to my earlier post today, I have yet another E-MAIL address for Mr. Corzine's other campaign manager, a Ms. Christy Davis.

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

I urge gold investors blast these people with a barrage of E-MAILS and let them know what you think about Mr. Corzine's bid for a Senate seat.



Black BladeNot much news lately, but...... #279744/3/2000; 10:49:31

Source: Bridge news

Asia Precious Metals Review: Gold moves in $278.50-279.50 range

Hong Kong--Apr 3--Gold firmed in Asian trade Monday, moving in a US 278.50-$279.50 range most of the day, dealers said. Spot gold is expected to be rangebound over the near term, with support seen at $276 and resistance at $281, they said. Silver and platinum traded near Friday's late US levels in thin trading. (Story .2200)

Black Blade: At least there is a little time left to accumulate some PMs according to these guys. Techs are under sever pressure today. The masses may just decide to take some profits off the table. Maybe some of those $ will migtrate toward the metals ;-)

Also, Japanese PM is in coma after suffering stroke. The Japanese government had delayed the announcement for several hours. Still, Au didn't budge.

TownCrierSir RossL, thanks for the follow up#279754/3/2000; 10:52:56

"...I did once declare intent to receive delivery on a 100 oz. contract and then later close it out. That was on the advice of my broker at the time."

If your broker in fact passed along your intent for delivery to the Commodities Exchange, then depending on the timing of the subsequent events on the advice and action of your broker, you may have had brief ownership of 100 ounces registered to you in the COMEX warehouses. And if so, then as you say, prior to you getting the notion of having them ship you the gold for your personal safekeeping, your broker may have sold a gold contract on your behalf, and used your registered stock to settle the position, removing your name from the title.

Par for the course on the COMEX gold market is that no metal changes hands or title. The players simply make cash wagers on the future price movement. Then, when they bow out of their contract positions as winners or losers, they settle the score with cash.

RossLTownCrier#279764/3/2000; 11:04:45

I looked around over at for a clarification of the rules. I couldn't find any solid statement, it appears that the rules change for different commodities.

This highlights one of the reasons I stopped playing the futures gambling games. The commisions were high and the fills were always $10 or $20 worse than the bid or ask. At the time I didn't have the internet for information, and all small players have a great disadvantage. Somehow I made a profit in the bull run of '93 using the WSJ and CNBC as sources of information.

That was enough to fuse the gold bug into the marrow of my bones! I decided to remove my funds from the grips of those vultures and invest in numismatic objects of great art and beauty. Real money. Timeless treasures.

TownCrierWhose bubble is the bigger, and how will U.S. banks fare?#279774/3/2000; 11:44:30

HEADLINE: ECB Says EU Banks Would Be Able to Weather Stock Market Slide

From information presented in two reports "Asset Prices and Banking Stability" and "EU Banks' Income Structure" Bloomberg begins their article "Commercial banks in the European Union would probably be able to weather stock market declines if they occurred." The European Central Bank said of the findings of its Banking Supervision Committee, "If stock prices were generally to fall in isolation, major difficulties would not be expected for EU banks." Sharp declines were said to pose some risks, and exposure to real estate would be the "most prominent source of concern for banking stability, should a major decline in asset prices occur" according to an ECB board menber.

This should serve as a wake-up call to everyone who casually assumes that banks, including U.S. banks, would natually survive a market slide. If there was absolutely no cause for concern, studies such as this would not be conducted. Now ask yourself, to what extent are U.S. financial institutions overexposed to market mania? Please recall, the Fed deliberately chose to leave its expanded "Y2K list" of acceptable collateral in effect for banks to borrow against as needed. Cause to share a realistic concern?

MarkeTalkMarket Manipulation and Lies#279784/3/2000; 12:42:18

Fellow, Goldmeisters, take heart and know that Uncle Sam is not only manipulating the gold market and rigging the PPI and CPI numbers. Misery loves company and you now have another group of folks who are the latest victims of government legerdemain. The news released on Friday that the USDA somehow "lost" 30 million bushels of soybeans is a testimony to this type of manipulation. Now 30 million bushels is no small number. What happened is the USDA "overestimated" (lied) about the harvest figures last November to the benefit of unknown parties. (Gee, I wonder who would benefit from such chicanery.) Prices for soybeans were forced down to unheard of levels while China and others bought at extremely favorable prices. Sound familiar?? Was this a Clinton administration payback for all of that Chinese money that financed his 1996 campaign? Then when it is time to let the market run, these very firms are long options and futures and are making a killing. In the meanwhile, the poor farmers got taken to the cleaners because they could not hold onto their beans any longer. Anyway, the whole thing stinks
FarfelVengold Aka Itemus: Collapsing, Collapsing. Now at $1.75#279794/3/2000; 13:09:44

Down almost 50% from just several weeks ago.

Hopefully, people listened when I warned them about this former gold company a few months ago. It is falling in price and my target price projection is somewhere around 15 cents when the dust settles.

The major reason why Itemus is failing to climb (aside from the current massacre in the NASDAQ) is that it violates the central rule of any soaring internet stock: plain and simple, vengf has way, way, way too much float, almost 200 million shares, whereas most successful internet stocks have average float in the area of 4 to 8 million shares only, at least when they first IPO. No doubt many long suffering gold investors have been dumping their millions and millions of vengf shares now that they have this window of opportunity to get out.

Moreover, the company is a weird one. When the company originally converted to an internet incubator, nobody seemed to know who was in charge.

In conclusion, I've said this before and I'll say it again: when gold companies and gaming companies etc. are converting to internet companies, that has got to be a very loud bell signalling a market top, if ever there was one.

After all, if taken to the logical extreme, soon ALL American companies would be inspired to become internet companies. Then who would be left to provide the essential, life-preserving goods in the country?



HI - HATMarkeTalk 27978 And The Winners Are#279804/3/2000; 13:28:16

Archer-Daniels Midland ; Cargill ; Continental Grains
TownCrierWake up and smell the toast burning#279814/3/2000; 13:28:40

For the same basic reasons that lead to bank runs in the late 1920's - early 1930's, seeking security against the overextended paper positions of the financial institutions, the situation is certainly ripe for a reply.

Reuters says "Traders agreed the [Austrian] sale would have little impact on liquidity in the 900-tonne-a-day bullion market." It stands to reason that "The Austrian selling is not going to affect the market liquidity in an unexpected way," [--Frederic Panizzutti, vice-president strategy and research at MKS Finance in Geneva] not only because of the pre-announced Washington Agreement, but because this is just a token quatity of real substance in a vast paper-representative market. At 900 tonnes traded each day, you can see how the entire 5-year allocation of 2,000 tonnes under the Washington Agreement could be snapped up in three days if the market moved to put real metal behind their paper veils.

Keep in mind our earlier report revealing that Austria would be using the gold operation system offered by the BIS. It would seem that the LBMA's (paper-based) system is being openly and officially forsaken. As a sovereign individual, you owe it to yourself to conduct your personal affairs accordingly. There is no single bureaucrat in Washington looking out for your best financial interests...nor should you expect there to be one, nor would you want one. Ultimately it comes down to each person having responsibility to maneuver for their best personal interests. Keep in mind that thanks to the market mania, gold is off the radar screen at this time for millions of Western investors. Use these opportunities to your advantage when you know the score and others do not.

Cavan ManTown Crier 27981#279824/3/2000; 13:37:21

Thanks for a the heads up posts today.
TownCrierThe Nasdaq Composit Index performance is like watching a train wreck...#279834/3/2000; 13:39:56

...horrible in its destruction, yet I cannot look away.

The Nasdaq is currently down beyond 300 points (nearly 7% on the day), while the Dow Industrials are the beneficiary...up more than 2%. Surreal.

You see, many mutual funds are compelled by their charter to keep a certain percentage of their funds in stocks. They simply can not flee to the sidelines or jump ship, but instead must run from one side of the listing ship to the other, back and forth, bailing water but sinking nonetheless in the end.

HI - HATDeath By A Thousand Cuts#279844/3/2000; 13:46:03

While Wall Street Propaganda Machine rolls on in the "Quest To Get Rich In America". The truth is that with the steady sinking A/D line, wild....wild...volatility, margin calls, there is some real CARNAGE going on out there.
MarkeTalkHI-HAT#279854/3/2000; 13:49:33

Thanks for the honor roll (or should it be the dishonor roll) of grain merchants who would be the beneficiaries of this government manipulation. I knew that Cargill was one of them but had forgotten about Archer Daniels Midland and Continental. In fact, this whole episode reminds me of a book on this subject. I can't remember the exact title but I believe it was called "Merchants of Grain." Can you verify this and let me know?
TownCrierCorrecting a typo...."reply" should be "replay" in a recent post#279864/3/2000; 13:55:49

"For the same basic reasons that lead to bank runs in the late 1920's - early 1930's, seeking security against the overextended paper positions of the financial institutions, the situation is certainly ripe for a REPLAY."

No stress when you are confident in your convictions and find yourself well ahead of the masses. It's good to breathe the fresh air in front of the herd...

JourneymanAnother one for the record books - - - it's good for you!#279874/3/2000; 14:12:42

- NASDAQ closes down 350.01 points and 7.6%, it's largest point loss ever and the 5th largest percent drop in history. Microsoft loses $79 billion in market capitalization, an unprecedented loss in Wall Street history. Client: "Why are these stocks going down?" Broker: "I don't know. I don't know why they went up!" -CNBC, 00/04/03, 4:01:36 PM EST

"'This is good for the market, good for the economy, this is what Alan Greenspan wants.' are the comments I've been hearing from the brokers here." -Bob Pisani, CNBC from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, 00/04/03, 4:08:23 PM EST

Regards, J.

CoBra(too)@TC - re Austrian Gold - Sales?#279884/3/2000; 14:16:12

Thank you friend TC, to bring the CNBC exuberance of still another CB selling off their non performng assets! I've started a response hours ago - got interrupted by local political reasons - as I am the proponent for an international golf club - on the sideways (My beloved old lady and I are getting on) and, as the kids are gone we find ourselves in a way too big, (300y's, not too old -since all refurbished mansion house, quintruplex to give you an idea), surrounded by another 45 acres - 20 k's West of Vienna.
As you've skipped the first paragraph - pls also skip mainstream media about OeNB(Austrian Nat.Bank) gold sales. I've tried to contact the Bof Au president, Dr. Klaus Liebscher today, an old former banker friend to discuss this - as I've feared black-or other mail (re: recent reparations to forced labor in the 3rd Reich) - it just seems to be the usual media hype. - Or Wall Street and G-span are getting desperate - to save the (Hi- Sir F* - feel with you!) - $!
BTW - another hot 60 tons will, or may be sold after 2004 - same, insane media hype- till sorry CB2

HI - HATMarkeTalk 27985 The Big Grab#279894/3/2000; 14:19:29

I vaguely remember a book by that title, so can't help there. I do however think that as in gold and silver manipulation, the commodities market is rigged across the whole spectrum. It's a big boys game in cahoots with the Federal overseers to make sure there is no inflation on this end to hurt dollar, etc.. Keep masses in the cheap Bread. The forcing down of Mining and Agricultural products below parity while financing expansion with DEBT, is the true bedrock reason for the upcoming conflaguration. As for Farmers , they care not a wit, since decision has been made to liquidate them and go the Big Corporate Farm route. I think they are doing everything they can to get the gold mining properties too, after they destroy them.
TownCrierSir CoBra(too)#279904/3/2000; 14:54:52

"I've tried to contact the Bof Au president, Dr. Klaus Liebscher today, an old former banker friend to discuss this"

Of the elements of this eventual discussion thay you might be at liberty to pass along, you'll have to let us know what interesting things are on his mind these days.

Took a quick poll of those few of us currently milling about here in The Castle and found that we are all in favor of a relocation to 20 k's West of Vienna to help fill up that house...

Farfel Transferring Money from a Super Bubble to a Mere Bubble#279914/3/2000; 15:31:55

The funniest aspect of today's stock markets performance is the CNBC spin suggesting that the NASDAQ had become irrational and now money is moving into a rational market, the DOW.

The DOW? Rational? What an absurd joke! You have companies trading today for valuations that are in many cases 100% higher (or more) than any real book value....that in many cases trade at much higher prices than a mere two or three years ago, yet with current revenues and profits no higher today than several years back.

What lunacy to suggest the DOW stocks are rationally valued?
By the measure-stick of a maniac maybe.

It is an interesting exercise in manipulative market deceit: boost a market like the NASDAQ to obscenely absurd levels, then pray that the already obscenely valued DOW will appear reasonably valued in comparison. Thereafter, Americans will regard the DOW as reasonably valued. Of course, the entire strategy depends on the collective amnesia of the American investor (already proven to exist), the collective stupidity of the American investor (already proven to exist), and an interventionist governmental body to rig the entire thing (it's a Clinton government, enough said).

At least today's action proved that the markets are at a point where funds inflows are insufficient to maintain price verticality in both markets, instead funds must be transferred back and forth between the two competing markets, in a kind of game which goes like this:

Today you get to ride the pony, I don't
Tomorrow I get to ride the pony, you don't

As I wrote in my Fifth Horseman thesis on this forum, the ultimate downfall of the markets will probably result from the current heated competition between New Economy vs. Old Economy funds. These funds, once cohesive in a "one for all, all for one" index strategy, are now already undermining each other's efforts and sales spin as they desperately compete for a dwindling supply of funds inflows.

Soon, we will see the same thing occur with the bullion banks as cohesion is certain to end there too. Then each bullion bank will run for the lifeboats (physical purchases of gold) in order to ensure survival, even at the expense of their gold carry trade partners in crime. The one left holding the necessary physical gold to cover gold shorts will have a de facto monopolistic hold on the entire investment bank sector, and can swoop in and pick up the remains of the devastated investment bank sector for pennies on the dollar.

My bet: it will be Goldman Sachs, with a little help from Rubin and Summers, leaving JP Morgan, Deutsche, Chase, etc. to eat sh*t in bankruptcy court.



CoBra(too)TC - Wellcome - pls fill my house with gold (-f-*) bugs anytime!#279924/3/2000; 15:59:50

... and be sure I'll keep you posted on any response from K.L. - as I've had hell to pay for my "real money" stance- gold- because of it. ... And there'll be hell to pay, I'd hoped for others- in explaining the timing of this (golden) non event! - I'm F*arfeling mad!
F* - forgive me for mishandling your F*-Handle - though a certain Insane Ron on Collective Nonesense Broadcast Co. - felt obliged to announce another CB gold sale as future "history" of reality ... as in today's mkt's: old eco stocks gaining 300 pts., or 2,7% vs new eco tanking 350 pts. or 7,4% - only Qu. for PPT - MSFT - spring - or (melt-) board ... (BTW-Qu stands for question(-able) and not for quarterlies).
Cheers- and I'll stick around for updates!CB2

BeowulfU.S. exports 50 tons of Gold a month?#279934/3/2000; 16:13:30

Thanks to a gracious poster at I found this interesting.

This is a breakdown of exports and imports in January 2000.

LelandI Think I'll Keep on Doing my Investing With Michael#279944/3/2000; 17:11:43

NYSE Announces Disciplinary Actions Against Six
Member Firms and 13 Individuals

NEW YORK, March 31 - The New York Stock Exchange has taken disciplinary actions
against six member firms and 13 individuals for violations of NYSE rules and federal
securities laws. The cases, prosecuted by the NYSE division of enforcement, may be subject
to review by the Securities and Exchange Commission and, thereafter, by federal courts.

In addition, the NYSE modified the summary suspensions of John R. D'Alessio and
D'Alessio Securities, Inc. The related decisions concerning that matter are summarized at
the end of this news release.
Six Member Firms Disciplined for Violating NYSE and/or SEC Rules and

Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Disciplined for Supervisory, Books and Records
and Reporting Violations

Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. of San Francisco, Calif., a member firm, consented
without admitting or denying guilt to findings of supervisory, books and records and
reporting violations.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, in August 1995, Schwab initiated a program called
"new accounts by phone" to open certain new retail accounts by telephone prior to the
receipt of signed, original customer account documents. The program was in operation from
August 1995-January 1998 but, for much of its existence, it lacked proper controls, which
resulted in accounts being opened without timely supervisory approval or receipt of
customer account documents, including customer options and margin agreements and
documents relating to IRA accounts. From at least October 1996, at any given time, the
firm did not know the number of registered representatives using the program nor did it
know how many accounts were opened under the program.

· The panel found that, during the relevant period, the firm failed to establish adequate
procedures to supervise the opening of and trading in these new accounts; permitted
registered representatives to override certain trading restrictions on customer accounts
without supervisory approval -- restrictions that had been imposed by the firm on the
accounts because of missing documentation; and failed to conduct reasonable follow-up on
supervisory deficiencies regarding the new accounts by phone program.

· The panel also found that the firm routinely entered inaccurate information into its internal
computer system indicating receipt of new customer account documentation when such
documents had not yet been received for new accounts by phone, and failed to maintain
required new account documentation concerning numerous new customer accounts.

· In addition, the hearing panel found that, during January 1996-June 1997, approximately
192 sales practice-related customer complaints were improperly coded by the firm as
"operational" in nature.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and $250,000 fine. Charles Schwab consented to
the penalty.
Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA) Inc. Disciplined for Financial, Operational, Books
and Records and Supervisory Deficiencies

Credit Lyonnais Securities (USA) Inc. of New York City, a member firm, consented
without admitting or denying guilt to findings of financial, operational, books and records
and supervisory deficiencies.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during approximately June 1994-March 1997, the
firm: failed to keep current and preserve certain records relating to assets and liabilities,
securities borrowed and loaned, securities fails, securities differences and records reflecting
securities positions and locations; filed inaccurate FOCUS reports (for the period
January-December 1996); failed to properly compute its net capital; did not reconcile
securities and money balances and promptly resolve differences; did not clearly identify, as
suspense accounts, accounts used as such; did not assign qualified employees responsibility
for each general ledger account, did not provide monthly supervisory review of each account
and did not maintain a written record of the names of the employees assigned primary and
supervisory responsibility for the accounts; and failed to keep current and updated
registration information on file with the Exchange concerning changes of employment by
registered personnel and failed to properly register with the Exchange certain officers,
directors and approved persons.

· The panel also found that the firm failed to reasonably supervise or control certain of its
business activities by failing to: provide supervisory controls at the operational level; assign
responsibility for control; and identify lines of authority.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, $225,000 fine and an undertaking that the firm
retain an independent consultant to prepare a report on the firm's systems and procedures in
the foregoing areas and submit to the Exchange a copy of the report, together with a written
representation that all actions or changes referred to in the report have been completely
implemented. Credit Lyonnais consented to the penalty.
Raymond, James & Associates, Inc. Disciplined for Supervisory, Operational, Books
and Records and Reporting Violations

Raymond, James & Associates, Inc. of St. Petersburg, Fla., a member firm, consented
without admitting or denying guilt to findings of supervisory, operational, books and
records and reporting violations.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, for various periods prior and subsequent to a 1995
examination of the firm by the Exchange, the firm, among other things: failed to reasonably
supervise one of its New York divisions that was involved in money management and
brokerage activity; failed to obtain proper registration for certain supervisory personnel;
violated securities rules and regulations concerning records of orders, including allocations
of block orders and complete order ticket information; failed to ensure appropriate
supervisory approval of account designation changes; and failed to timely report to the
Exchange certain sales practice complaints.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and $165,000 fine. Raymond James consented to
the penalty.
Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated Disciplined for Supervisory, Operational, Books and
Records and Sales Practice Violations

Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated of New York City, a member firm, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings of supervisory, operational, books and records and
sales practice violations.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1994-1997, the firm (despite its knowledge of
the procedural deficiencies set forth in the decision) failed to supervise certain accounts
maintained at the firm, referred to as "flip" accounts, and the trading therein, as well as the
order desk clerks handling these accounts, by: failing to prevent non-registered order desk
clerks from accepting orders from public customers, from time-stamping blank order tickets
while not in possession of any order and from accepting third-party orders without written
discretionary authorization; failing to transmit discretionary orders for execution; and by
failing to prevent public customers from entering orders directly with floor brokers. The
panel found that, as a result, the firm lost control over the entry, transmission and execution
of certain orders for such accounts to the flip account owners and floor brokers.

· The hearing panel found that the firm also failed to make and preserve records relating to
the receipt and execution of all customer orders and failed to exercise appropriate due
diligence with respect to certain accounts.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, $100,000 fine and an order to comply with an
undertaking: to retain an independent consultant to perform a review and prepare a report
concerning the firm's systems, policy and procedures in the above areas and to implement
the report recommendations or an acceptable alternative thereto; that, for a period of three
years, the firm's chief compliance officer will conduct a compliance examination in these
areas; and to refrain for three years from carrying and/or effecting trades for any flip account.
Oscar Gruss consented to the penalty.
Moors & Cabot, Inc. Disciplined for Using Independent Contractors Improperly and
Books and Records, Reporting and Supervisory Deficiencies

Moors & Cabot, Inc. of Boston, Mass., a member firm, consented without admitting or
denying guilt to findings relating to its use of independent contractors, and for books and
records, reporting and supervisory deficiencies.

· Among other things, an NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1997-1998, the firm
permitted certain individuals who were independent contractors (65 of the firm's 130
registered representatives) to perform the duties customarily performed by registered
representatives, but failed to file related required documentation with the Exchange; and,
during 1997-1999, permitted 13 of the independent contractors to perform duties
customarily performed by direct supervisors of registered representatives

· The panel also found that, during 1998-1999, the firm failed to maintain certain books and
records in that, on several occasions: the firm failed to prepare formal net capital
computations, failed to maintain current documentation concerning the firm's inter-company
account with an affiliate company and failed to promptly report to the Exchange that an
employee had engaged in misconduct related to his floor broker activities on the Exchange
trading floor.

· The hearing panel also found that, during the relevant period, the firm failed to maintain
appropriate procedures for supervision and control of its business activities, including a
separate system of follow-up and review, to detect and prevent the foregoing violations. The
panel found that from 1994-1999, the firm failed to reasonably supervise and control the
activities of a floor broker employed by the firm and failed to reasonably investigate the
nature and extent of the broker's misconduct after receiving notice of it.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, $60,000 fine and a requirement to comply with
an undertaking to retain an outside consultant to complete a review and prepare a report of
the procedures and systems of follow-up and review adopted by the firm to prevent
recurrence of the foregoing violations. Moors & Cabot consented to the penalty.
Equitrade Partners, LLC Disciplined for Failing to Conduct In-Person Meetings with
Listed Companies and Related Supervisory Deficiencies

Equitrade Partners, LLC of New York City, a former member firm which conducted a
specialist business, consented without admitting or denying guilt to findings that it failed
to conduct in-person meetings with listed companies and related supervisory deficiencies.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1998, the firm failed to conduct an in-person
meeting between representatives of the specialist unit and senior officials of 35 listed
companies in whose stocks specialists associated with the specialist unit were registered.

· The panel also found that, among other things, the firm failed to ensure that companies, in
whose stock the firm was the registered specialist, were contacted as required and failed to
have any written procedures in place to ensure compliance with the above requirement.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and $30,000 fine. Equitrade Partners consented
to the penalty.
Former Floor Clerk Disciplined for Initiating Trades on the Floor and Related
James J. Dolan of Henderson, Nev., a former floor clerk, consented without admitting or
denying guilt to findings that, among other violations, he caused the execution of trades on
the floor that did not originate from any customer.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, on April 3, 1997, Dolan caused trades to be executed
on the Exchange floor that did not originate from any customer. The panel found that Dolan
time-stamped two orders tickets to sell short shares of a stock and thereafter arranged for
such trades to be placed in error accounts at other firms in an effort to conceal losses from
such trades that ultimately became the responsibility of his member employer. The panel
also found that Dolan effected these transactions for his own benefit when he was not
authorized to transact this kind of business on the floor, made misstatements and/or
omissions to various individuals, including members and employees of member firms, and
made unauthorized use of the error account of his member firm employer.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and four-year bar. Dolan consented to the
Individuals Disciplined for Sales Practice Misconduct and Other Infractions

James Alexander Hopkins of Huntington Station, N.Y., a former registered
representative, consented without admitting or denying guilt to findings that he engaged in
sales practice misconduct in five customer accounts.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during February-September 1996, Hopkins effected
unauthorized transactions in customer accounts; provided customers with inaccurate written
summaries of transactions and account status; made material misstatements to customers
about the status of such customers' accounts; sent correspondence to customers without
prior supervisory review and made a material misstatement to the firm regarding
correspondence that he had sent to a customer without prior supervisory review; and agreed
to share and shared in losses in customer accounts after such losses were incurred.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and three-year bar. Hopkins consented to the

John Duran of San Francisco, Calif., a former registered representative, consented
without admitting or denying guilt to findings that he engaged in sales practice misconduct
in three customer accounts.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1995-1997, Duran engaged in unauthorized and
unsuitable trading in the accounts of three customers and failed to follow the instructions of
the customers.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and 10-month bar. Duran consented to the

Ned R. Somers of New York City, a registered representative, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings that he engaged in sales practice misconduct in three
customer accounts, among other violations.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1988-1995, Somers effected transactions in the
accounts of three customers that were unsuitable in view of the customers' investment
objectives, investment experience or financial resources, entered inaccurate information on
the books and records of his member firm employer and represented to two of the customers
that he would guarantee the profitability of the account.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure and four-month suspension. Somers consented to
the penalty.

David Ferdinandi of Fresno, Calif., a registered representative, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings that he engaged in sales practice misconduct in the
accounts of two customers.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during May 1991-January 1996, Ferdinandi effected
unauthorized and unsuitable trades in the accounts of two customers of his member firm
employer. The panel also found that he effected trades in one of these customer's accounts
that were excessive in light of the customer's investment experience, objectives and financial
resources and that he shared in the losses in another of the customer's accounts.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, $10,000 fine and six-week suspension.
Ferdinandi consented to the penalty.
Individuals Disciplined for Unauthorized Outside Business Activities and Other
Bruce Anthony Hayes of Los Angeles, Calif., a former registered representative,
consented without admitting or denying guilt to findings that, among other things, he
engaged in an outside business activity without making a written request to, and receiving
prior written consent of, his member firm employer.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during 1997, Hayes engaged in an outside business
activity, and received $10,000 as a finder's fee, for causing a customer of his member firm
employer to invest $100,000 in a private placement away from the firm, without first
receiving written permission of his firm. The panel also found that Hayes recommended that
the customer sell $100,000 of stocks in her account at the firm and invest the proceeds in
the private placement, and made material misrepresentations or omissions of information to
the customer in connection with the private placement transaction.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, one-year bar and a requirement to comply with
his undertaking to pay $7,500 to the customer (in addition to the $2,500 he previously paid
to the customer). Hayes consented to the penalty.

Gregg M. S. Berger of Scarsdale, N.Y., a registered representative, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings that, among other violations, he engaged in an
outside business without receiving prior written consent of his member firm employer.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, during September 1993-March 1996, Berger engaged
in unsuitable trading by over concentrating a customer in one security and recommending
that the customer invest in an unapproved outside business without receiving the written
consent of his member firm employer. The panel also found that Berger exercised
discretionary power in the customer's account without first obtaining written authorization.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, two-month suspension and $5,000 fine. Berger
consented to the penalty.

Michael Gallagher of Matawan, N.J., a clerk on the trading floor, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings that, among other things, he engaged in an outside
business activity, and was compensated by another person, without making a written
request and receiving the prior written approval of his member firm employer.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, from May-October 1997, Gallagher maintained and
effected personal securities transactions in an account at a non-member broker-dealer but
failed to obtain the written consent of his member firm employer to maintain the account
and also failed to have duplicate confirmations and monthly statements sent to his member
firm employer. The panel also found that, from approximately May 1997-February 1998,
Gallagher was employed by two independent floor brokers to process order tickets without
requesting or obtaining the consent of the firm.

· The hearing panel found that Gallagher provided inaccurate answers to the firm on an
employee annual compliance notification form with regard to these matters.

The NYSE imposed a penalty of a censure, $5,000 fine and a six-week suspension.
Gallagher consented to the penalty.

After a contested hearing, Dennis Charles Koenning of Acworth, Ga., a former registered
representative, was found guilty of engaging in a business without making a written request
and receiving prior written consent of his member firm employer.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, in September 1966, Koenning entered into an
arrangement in which he would lease cars and then sublease them through a company to
third parties who were unable to lease a car because of their poor credit history and were
willing to pay the company a premium to lease a car. The panel found that the company
and Koenning would then split the down payments paid by the third parties as well as that
portion of all monthly premiums on the subleases that exceeded the monthly premiums on
the primary leases. The panel found that, in late 1996, Koenning was compensated for
subleasing four cars through the company but did not make a written request and receive
prior written consent of his member firm employer concerning his relationship with either
the president of the company or the company itself.

The NYSE imposed a penalty on Koenning of a censure.
Individuals Barred for Misappropriation and OtherViolations
Philip Cooper of Lauder Hill, Fla., a former registered representative, was found guilty of
misappropriating funds belonging to a customer of his member firm employer, attempting
to misappropriate funds from another customer and failing to comply with a written request
by the Exchange for information.

· An NYSE hearing panel found that, in October 1998, Cooper attempted to misappropriate
$2.1 million from a customer of his member firm employer by processing a request, and
other related documents, for an unauthorized wire transfer of the funds. The panel also found
that, during November 1997-September 1998, Cooper misappropriated a total of $66,100
from a customer's joint money-market accounts.

· The hearing panel found that Cooper did not comply with the request by the NYSE
division of enforcement for his testimony.

The NYSE imposed a penalty on Cooper of a censure and permanent bar.

Victor E. Catalano of Laurel, N.Y., a former branch office manager, consented without
admitting or denying guilt to findings that, among other things, he misappropriated funds
belonging to a customer of his member firm employer.

· An NY

PhosFarfel (#27979) - Vengold#279954/3/2000; 17:28:39

I agree with your analysis on Vengold/Itemus as an internet incubator but don't they still own a substantial chunk of Lihir? If there is a decent run-up in gold (ha!), wouldn't their stock price benefit from this?
oldgoldFarfel#279964/3/2000; 17:31:15

Kaplan reports three major brokerages downgraded gold shares this morning. But the shares held up nicely nonetheless. I like that kind of action. Very encouraging if it continues.

Re: the market -- money now is pouring into value stocks (not just the Dow) -- and these should do well for a few weeks at least. Many of the non-Dow value stocks are reasonably valued at 10-15 times earnings.

But this most certainly is not a new bull market in these issues. The ongoing value rally will not last long and probably is the final hook before a genuine bear begins.

FarfelGold Market Rigging at Its Finest, Courtesy of Wall Street#2799704/03/00; 18:20:42

Yes, Old Gold, The Clinton government and its bullion bank masters did another masterful job of rigging the gold market today. Categorical, clear cut market rigging...nothing less. Again, if I ever hear another Clintonite tell me about the wonderful FREE financial markets in this country, I will barf all over their corrupt stolen shoes.

First, of course, the obligatory central bank gold sale announcement (WITHOUT any mention of the Washington Agreement and the fact that Austria's intended gold sales must occur within the guidelines of that agreement...hence, a ZERO increase in the annual amount of European gold sales over the next several years). Of course, the Austrian gold sale announcement was designed to be released on the exact day when the decision concerning the government case against Microsoft would be released, thus ensuring a very weak day in the NASDAQ.

Naturally, the bullion banks and their obedient Clinton government pigeons made certain that, on such a weak Nasdaq day, there would not be any dollars fleeing toward gold. They achieved their goal via the Austrian gold sale announcement PLUS the various downgrades of several gold mining companies released today. It's that simple.

Again, any gold investor who has watched these kinds of blatant relentless examples of unmitigated market rigging over the past several years...any gold investor who has lost huge amounts of money in such a rigged market...OUGHT TO BE MAD AS HELL!!

If you are not mad as hell, then you must dead or dying.

Get off your butts and raise a ruckus. Here's one suggestion:

In posts, I provided earlier today, you should blast Jon Corzine, former senior partner of Goldman Sachs, who hopes to be the next Senator of New Jersey. Let this guy know in no uncertain terms what you think of Goldman Sachs and the gleeful manner in which the bullion banks have robbed you of your money via the nefarious gold carry trade.

Here are E-MAILS for the man's two campaign managers:

Christy Davis: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Steve Goldstein: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.




FarfelPHOS...Vengold aka Itemus is NO LONGER in the Gold Biz.#2799804/03/00; 18:29:36

From their latest financial report released the a few days ago:

"For the year ended December 31, 1999, Vengold incurred a net loss of US$107.8 million (US$0.75 per share) compared
to a net loss of $14.4 million (US$0.11 per share) in 1998. The loss in 1999 was entirely attributable to losses
incurred on the Company's investments in the mining sector. The Company's mining investments will be treated as a
discontinued operation in future periods.

At December 31, 1999, the Company held cash of US$11 million, and bank debt of US$10 million. At the present time and
following the recent financing, the Company has bank debt of US$12 million, a cash balance of US$35 million and the
Company holds 54 million shares in Lihir Gold Limited (AUS:LHG) valued at approximately US$23 million.

Subsequent to year-end, the company stated its intention to redeploy assets from the natural resource industry to the
technology sector and concurrently announced the hiring of a core management team led by Mr. Jim Tobin, former
Chairman and founder of BCE Emergis. The Company also announced a name change to itemus inc."

It is my understanding that the company will dispose of all its Lihir stock ASAP and use the proceeds for its internet incubator fund.



FarfelPHOS...and here's the reason Vengold's been so weak.#2799904/03/00; 18:39:46

On March 30, Company announced the following:

"Vengold also said it has received regulatory approval to acquired a private e-commerce incubation company controlled by
its president and chief executive, Jim Tobin, for 15.25 million shares, valued at C$12.8 million."

PHOS, basically, the market is nervous as this appears to be a most egregious example of self-dealing by the senior corporate officer, to the detriment of the shareholders. The concerned shareholders are dumping the stock like crazy.



ZenideaPlatinum#2800004/03/00; 19:25:33

Re: Platinum .Chairman Yuri Kotlyar ( Norilsk Nickel),
still hasnt the foggy-ist when shipments would resume out of Russia. source: Alan Murphy Platinum Guild......
Meanwhile The National Union of Mine Workers (25,000) in South Africa may start labour action ( the usual hoo ha) if negs with Amplants arn't successful. Notwithstanding that
according to the Platinum Guild in 1999 53% or 88 tons
of the worlds PT mining output went into making PT Jewelry
with a seems-so reviveing demand in Japan and a 37% increase in China last year. Since 1976 the earliest year for records included in the online database some 69,053 US patent awarded reference PT in some way.
Gold is beautiful , Platinum is nothing less than incredibly useful !. Pt Pd Ag and Au get yea the LOT !!!!.
Black Blade are you still kicking ?. :).

megatronwhy stop now?#2800104/03/00; 19:44:57

Tommorow the mendacious scum of the Treasury will NO Doubt
be in a BUYING mood, hankerin' for some Nasdaq to keep the yokels all happy, all at the expense of gold. I've recently began to wonder if there isn't a gold stock shorting program running in the background as well?

BonedaddyMore RATS jumping off the USS Slick Willy!#2800204/03/00; 19:49:30

The word is that Louis Freeh will announce his "retirement" as director of the FBI. Well, better to leave now I suppose, than risk the humiliation of being run off after the next election. I wonder if he will leave Deputy Direktor Herr Larry Potts, the Hero of Ruby Ridge, in charge? Oh, well, I guess that isn't very fair is it? The real HERO of Ruby Ridge was FBI sniper Lon Horiuchi, who shot Vicki Weaver in the face while she held her baby in the doorway of the families cabin. Lon Horiuchi, there's a real G-man! Put him in charge, Louie. There have been days when I wondered if we would ever get America back. Good riddance maggot.
JCTexTownCrier: re.: msg. #27983#2800304/03/00; 20:08:13

Your description:
"You see, many mutual funds are compelled by their charter to keep a certain percentage of their funds in stocks. They simply can not flee to the sidelines or jump ship, but instead must run from one side of the listing ship to the other, back and forth, bailing water but sinking nonetheless in the end."

This may be the most descriptive and accurate
explanation of the so-called equity markets that I have seen or expect to see. This one is worthy of notation by the historians in the years to come.


Gold Trail UpdateThe Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated#2800404/03/00; 20:58:37">The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
pdeepDouble Bubbles#2800504/03/00; 21:17:25

So let's see. While the Nasdaq bubble deflates, the DJIA bubble inflates. And gold (happily, I may add, does nothing, just more time to add to physical....). Presumably, "Old Economy" (I don't really believe this newspeak, but for the sake of the argument) stocks of companies which make real stuff bought by real consumers, drunk on the hooch of rising "New Economy" stocks, are now a buy. What I don't understand is how anyone looking at the macro situation can fail to realize that once the hooch gets really watered down, and the drunk consumers go into liquidity withdrawal, they will stop buying the stuff made by the "Old Economy." It's one economy stoopid! is all I can come up with. Capital has been misallocated, fueling a consumer boom the likes of which has not been seen in a long long time, and the fuel is about to run out. And this is a reason to buy into the "Old Economy"? Just at the mother of all inflection points in consumer spending? I don't get it. Gotta read more von Mises....
Black Blade@Zenidea and Platinum,etc.#2800604/03/00; 23:31:35

Yes ideed, I'm kickin' and screamin' :-) I wouldn't be surprised to see the PGMs not officially trade on the open market in the foreseeable future. Russia, and the former Soviet Republics are economic basket cases. Any company doing business there will be sorely burned. I had the pleasure(amusement???) of working on a project in Khazakstan some time ago. What the corrupt regimes don't steal, organized(?) crime will, and anything left over the people steal. These governments have no honor (no surprise about that), but anything of value is likely dissappeared faster than an IMF dollar. Personally, I don't believe that there is ANY palladium, or even platinum left, as this was by-product from Norilsk Nickel, and there hasn't really been a need for base metals in Russia since there hasn't been any real production of anything. This country is on the ropes and is ripe for revolution. As far as PGMs are concerned, I would only accumulate physical Platinum, and probably shares of PGM producers (such as Stillwater Mining, or Implats maybe). I've pretty well given up on following the futures markets of PGMs since they are now severely controlled and especially since the TOCOM defaulted last month. This could be a warning of what may come in the gold and silver markets if there is a true short squeeze. Maybe this is why the shorts don't seem to be concerned. Who really knows. Meanwhile, I have been slowly rotating out of my high-flying stocks over the last few weeks, accumulating physical and some mining shares. More analysts are anti-metals, and as the old saying goes "buy while there's blood in the streets...." That said, I'll believe that there's physical PGMs on the open markets when I see it ;-) Take care friend, Black Blade.
Black Blade@Leigh msg #27959#2800704/03/00; 23:41:07

Leigh, about your PR campaign suggestion for WGC! I like.....COOL!
ZenideaTrail Guide #2800804/03/00; 23:54:55

Trail Guide here I sit along this trail with you and others on a clear night looking up and watching a star and the darkness thereof that encompasses round about it, or does it ?.
I think I know what you mean by the far and near view the game and the ball. If I take the close view , i.e from a fixed thinking point I simply see the star and the darkness
round about it, but if I take the far view i.e imagining
the self travelling around that star , circumferencing it at infinite speed so theoretically I am at all places at once around it in a sence perhaps arriveing at another fixed point whereby and with all seeing eye , I realise that that beam of light is everywhere with me and thus the darkness like clothes or a veil covering the truth up falls and vanishes.
What the hec why stop there , I am at infinite speed in infinate places at once in the entirety of the universe .
I see that the self is as it were in a lighted room now. In truth the darkness is there but the real truth is that it is not, its counterfeit. I am slow Trail guide but I will catch up with you and Another and Micheal and All. I read and re-read over and over , I think perhaps you are asking us
to come on this trail with you with a quiet mind and that thats part of the trick to understanding this fantastic
journey ?. Anyway the veil is slowely being removed , I feel good. I big thankyou to you FOA, I genuinely sincerely mean that. whatta family !!!!!

ZenideaBlack Blade 28006#2800904/04/00; 03:31:03

hahaha ! Kicking and Screaming you reckon!:).Yes we winge and moan about things alot sometimes but unless one has travelled to some of these places for real (were human life is cheap) its hard to really appreciate how darn lucky us Aussies, Americans and Europeans really are.
Actually I heard through the grapevine myself that not only is Norilsk's mine seriously depleted but indeed the shelves/stores (Old mother hubbard cuboards are bare).that is unless the place is being looted for all its worth for what morsels are left. If this is the case South Africa and
or Still Water must be rubbing there hands togeather. I would love a first hand look at Norilsk secretive outfit to say the least from any mountain top.
Yes TOCOM is dissapointing. Anyone with an IQ of a retarded
bull-ant knows that that sucks to the max !. I asked that question re: Gold and silver a few days ago but didnt get a responce. Anyway friend I get the appetite wet by news of Pt and Pd . These industrial metal fundamentals at least in the near future look very interesting. If they are not being depleted in the mines the're being burnt away. I wonder if "Another" knows whats happening there ? hint hint :).because some of the books or reports on it I have seen for sale I know go into the thousands, to much for this little battler.

Oh incidentially Black Blade I didnt get to Hong Kong as you may have noticed looking for that 25 tonnes in the caves the ol locals alledge the Japanese left behind.
We are on strike , meetings everyday to attend. I dont know why I am always in the minority vote, I am either always wrong or the majority is ?, I am sure the majority is actually stupid, ho hum, such is democracy. and the wife
was all over the planet so I sort of got grounded at home.
Hey Congrat's on the Win !,here. Regards Ray.

el St.OneORO.....Margin ReQ#2801004/04/00; 03:31:25

I didn't know some houses had raised margin. It has to be a smart move on there part. In my book it should have been 100% from 1995 on.
I'm sure your right about the plight of the dollar, when it hits the slide look out far below.
I never have been a doomsdayer, but the big picture is looking pretty grim. I'm slowly becoming one. I hope our society can hold together, some days I have my doubts.

Thanks for the input.......el

el St.OneORO.....Margin ReQ#2801104/04/00; 03:31:56

I didn't know some houses had raised margin. It has to be a smart move on there part. In my book it should have been 100% from 1995 on.
I'm sure your right about the plight of the dollar, when it hits the slide look out far below.
I never have been a doomsdayer, but the big picture is looking pretty grim. I'm slowly becoming one. I hope our society can hold together, some days I have my doubts.

Thanks for the input.......el

LelandJohn Crudele Talks About Market Rotation -- From the NEW YORK POST#2801204/04/00; 03:43:02

"Two things need to be said about yesterday's
enormous slide in over-the-counter stocks: One, who
couldn't see this coming? And, two, it had nothing to
do with a Federal judge's decision on Microsoft.

Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson's decision that
Microsoft broke the nation's monopoly laws should
have been good for all the technology shares that make
up the Nasdaq index.

AristotleSimple thoughts on how to get There from Here#2801304/04/00; 03:49:25

These comments were inspired after Fafel suggested (Msg ID:27997):
"Again, any gold investor who has watched these kinds of blatant relentless examples of unmitigated market rigging over the past several years...any gold investor who has lost huge amounts of money in such a rigged market...OUGHT TO BE MAD AS HELL!! If you are not mad as hell, then you must dead or dying."

An evaluation of my calm emotional state compels me to request that somebody please send flowers and condolences to my grieving family.

While not entangling Farfel, or anyone else necessarily, consider this. A person of similar disposition to the one portrayed by Farfel in the above passage might at some point be seen to take it upon himself to relocate to the far side of the City where events are more peaceful and conducted at a pleasant pace. Available methods of transport are his own shoes, the municipal buses, and the yellow taxi cabs. Long ago, as he set out to achieve his goal to come to this distant place for final relaxation, he had at the time only enough extra money to accommodate bus fare. But he did not know the bus routes or schedules. He was therefore reluctant to jump aboard and perhaps be delivered at a loss to some point yet further away from his destination--requiring more walking than were he now to put one foot in front of the other in continuous and deliberate succession. In a similar manner a person might have long ago perceived investments in the general stock uncertain route of unknown schedule that may or may not deliver you closer to your retirement destination.

But this person "knows" a thing or two about yellow taxi cabs--that they will deliver you at your command and without guesswork directly toward your desired destination. But rather than paying the cab fare, which was at the time more expensive than the bus fare, this traveller perceived an opportunity (because he "knew" a thing or two about cabs) when he saw a sign that said "Drivers wanted."

Ah-HA! This clever traveller would invest (his time) in the yellow taxi cab company, and thereby let his "investment" bring about the source of his deliverance across town. Time wore on as he drove many passengers to THEIR destinations without ever gaining a personal windfall of serving a passenger seeking his same destination to the far side of the City. In time he grew irritated at his bad fortune. His irritation further grew as he became more aware of the bus routes and schedules, seeing signs that some buses did indeed visit his desired destination, though he still could not be sure which buses they were at the time of embarking. He would therefore stick to his "investment" plan with the yellow taxi cab company, anticipating that the desire of others to arrive at that same place would be his grand reward as the wise driver who had strength to bide his time within the company--bacause he "knew" a thing or two about cabs.

And yet that windfall was not in the cards. And the bitterness grew as buses seemed to take everyone everywhere they needed to go, with much media attention devoted to proclaiming the wonder of the municipal bus system's expanded routes--although it must be said in dark alleys that the bus fares were becoming prohibitively expensive, and that some of them occasionally drive over cliffs to plunge into the sea. Adding further to his dismay, he was not sure if the yellow cab company was to blame, or if it was city policy to blame, but somehow the cost of yellow cab fares were being lowered while his overhead for such things as fuel was rising. Not only was he not getting lucky with a "windfall profit" customer delivery to his desired part of the City, neither was he making any profitable, or even sustainable earnings, and his time investment in the yellow taxi cab company yielded only an ever-aging and bitter man staring back each day in the rearview mirror.

So absorbed does he become in his "investment" strategy with the cab Company, and with his contempt for the buses and their passengers, and with the lack of income for honest cab drivers due to declining rates, that he fails to properly reassess the situation with a fresh perspective to take new and appropriate action. To any outsider looking in, the choice is an obvious one to get to the destination effeciently...quit the damn cab company and take advantage of the cheap rates by becoming a direct customer of the yellow taxi cab. Heck, at these rates hire a whole fleet of yellow cabs to take you and all your stuff to your destination on the peaceful, far side of the City. Go ahead. There is no shame in altering your old "investment" strategy in light of a new day. Just as no man can step into the same river twice, the passage of time and the evolution of events ensures that the reasons you did what you did long ago may no longer be deemed the most prudent actions to take today. While your pride may have been hurt by old decisions that did not bear the expected fruit, sticking to the strategy while not re-evaluating present conditions does nothing to improve the situation or to save face. You can instead strive to become the very model of wisdom and composure by either steeling your resolve for the long walk ahead, or else flagging down some cheap Yellow to do thy bidding. Take control.

I'll leave you with a short bit of a post I enjoyed and saved from several months ago. It says it all.

Blue Sky (12/5/99; 19:38:36MDT - Msg ID:20354)
"We've had the freedom of choice to buy or not.
I have chosen to buy.
I now enjoy what I have (waiting for the Helvetias and Confederatios to arrive)."

Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle

HI - HATTrail Guide Who Decides What Gold Market Is#2801404/04/00; 04:16:21

Hello. Could you please make some destinctions as to what
paper gold markets and physical gold markets actually are?.I particularly do not understand why a mining company, like Homestake, for instance is said to be going to sell into paper market down into oblivian. I understand that LBMA "sets" gold price in dollars and then how players battle it out either long or short in Comex,etc., without sufficient product to back up all claims. If the "price fixing" and paper gold trading is "the Market", where does the refiners like Handy and Harmon,Englehard, Johnson Mathey and Credit Suisse, who get the mine production and then distribute to "real" users draw the line on their selling price in the face of real supply and real demand? What is the market mechanism for distribution on the ECM/BIS end of this, aside from holding in their Central Bank vaults to supply gold to users in the real world? If paper gold market collapses what is it that will transpire to say to the World what is the real "GOLD MARKET"? If what I have asked here is even understandable thankyou for any reply you might give. Also if mining companies are tied to Bullion Banks and LBMA because of financing issues why won't ME money etc., come out of the woodwork to finance mining?

HI - HATTrail GuideI#280154/4/2000; 4:42:04

I am at the point with "GOLD INSIGHT", that tells me there are no White Knights, and at the Drill Core is ROT, all the way around.
Clint HAristotle, Fafel, good thoughts from both#280164/4/2000; 6:25:36

A wise mentor constantly reminded me,

"Never let your mad get your money."

WAC (Wide Awake Club)@ALL - Middle Eastern Gold#280174/4/2000; 7:46:12

Where do the Middle Easterners keep their physical gold? Does this gold live physically with the FED, or in London, Paris or Zurich? Or is it or Middle Eastern soil? Keeping the amount of gold they own on anywhere but home soil must surely be a very dangerous strategy.
Historically, the ONLY method that large amounts of gold have been moved is by violence, namely by war. Very large movements of gold seldom occur peacefully. There's just an awful lot of movement lately and things still 'appear' quite 'stable'.

GalearisKitco repost#280184/4/2000; 7:51:21

Silverbaron (WOW - exporting gold from the U. S. must be a good business lately.......) ID#297352:
Copyright © 1999 Silverbaron/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Data is NET exports = ( exports-imports ) of Gold from the U.S., in Metric Tons/month


Jan-98 37.02
Feb-98 -5.18
Mar-98 0.69
Apr-98 -6.19
May-98 -7.8
Jun-98 8.3
Jul-98 -0.6
Aug-98 29
Sep-98 24.3
Oct-98 51.7
Nov-98 28.7
Dec-98 -5.5
Jan-99 -7.1
Feb-99 -2.6
Mar-99 -8.6
Apr-99 7.3
May-99 -9.1
Jun-99 12.1
Jul-99 -14.6
Aug-99 10.5
Sep-99 80.1 ( hmmmmmmmm...interesting timing )
Oct-99 13.6
Nov-99 72.7
Dec-99 52.4
Jan-00 50.2

PhosWAC - Middle Eastern Gold#280194/4/2000; 8:40:24

I read somewhere, a while ago, that a lot of the Middle East gold is stored in London (I think the vaults are at Trafalgar Square). I seem to remember reading that they have leased quite a bit of it too. It makes sense to keep it there as the Middle East has had a history of Muslim fundamentalist activities which could cause problems (like losing a lot of it). I wonder, though, if a lot has been leased, what is the likelyhood of getting it back.
USAGOLDToday's Report: Two Coyotes#280204/4/2000; 8:52:18

4/4/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/4/00): Gold was down this morning on little in the way of

In watching the market action following the Microsoft decision yesterday and
in today's early going, the question comes to mind: "Where will investment
capital rotate once its discovered that the Dow Jones stocks are overvalued
too?" I understand that the Botswanan Stock Exchange Index is undervalued at
the moment. Maybe some bright fund manager could look there, sell a couple
shares of E-Bay and buy it....Yes, I mean the whole thing.

What's going on now says a great deal about value, i.e., it matters not
anymore. For example, labor is so valued in today's economy that the
businesses which support it can't find the quality employees to keep it open.
When they do, the work is so unreliable and overpriced, they cannot compete
-- kind of like the old Escher masterpiece of the dragon eating its tail.

This morning a landmark Colorado business -- Valas TV (a family enterprise
which began with the television revolution and grew with it) closed its doors
after 59 years in business. Yes, closed its doors in the face of the biggest
electronics boom in history. Why? "The No. 1 reason," said David Valas, son
of its founder, "is the tight labor market. It's been an inability to attract
enough good employees." We deal with a lot of business owners at Centennial
Precious Metals. Hard to say, how many time we've heard that lament over the
last three or four months.

But as in all things there's a downside to all this. The world's paper
currencies are being debased in concert -- a grand concert -- with the U.S.
dollar in the lead chair. To wit, the Japanese central bank continued its
assault on the yen today driving the dollar index up -- a central bank
attacking its own currency! Now, what would keep an enterprising
manager from taking advantage of the strong dollar and going in and buying
most of the Japanese electronics industry (for example) -- lock, stock and
barrel -- as we say in this part of the world. Well, you say, the Japanese
have tight control on take-over activity. That's an interesting strategy --
debase your currency then don't let anybody buy anything with it. Very much
unlike U.S. policy which has determined that debasing your currency and
selling your country with it adds up to good economic policy.

But of course with all the coyotes out there, the stock of prey is running
out anyway -- Japanese electronics notwitstanding. All of which, brings me to
a piece of wisdom printed in the letters section of the Denver Post this
morning undoubtedly traceable to one of those leathery, old cowboy types who
still live amidst these purple mountain majesties:

"If there were but three animals left on earth, two would be coyotes and they
would be chasing the third." Though a testament to the tenacity of the
coyote, perhaps the two would do each other mortal harm fighting over the
third. Perhaps that third -- still standing -- would be yellow metal,the
glitter of which cannot be extinguished by even the most rabid defenders of
this ill-bred and dying international monetary system. Everything else seems
to be in the process of being debased to the status of non-value. For the
private investor, perhaps a little rotation in the direction of gold -- the
one asset which is not simultaneously someone else's liability -- is
warranted. We'll sit back then and watch the coyotes tear each other up. Gold
owners generally enjoy good sport, wouldn't you say?

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.

ChristopherAre we(US) the only ones who can't see?#280214/4/2000; 9:53:00

News blurb found on Excite page in the investments section under world news.

"Finance ministers must reform the global financial system before U.S. economic fragility threatens emerging market economies, urged the Institute of International Finance, which represents more than 300 big financial institutions:FT"

Again I ask, are we the only ones who can't see?

The Invisible HandThe darkest hour ...#280224/4/2000; 10:09:47

... is just before daybreak.

I nominate
Sir Aristotle's (04/04/00; 03:49:25MDT - Msg ID:28013)
" Simple thoughts on how to get There from Here"
to the Hall of Fame

FarfelLoud Bell Signalled NASDAQ Top...#280234/4/2000; 10:13:15

My biggest clue of this NASDAQ debacle came from a cousin of mine.

He had been invested in a variety of VSE mining stocks plus standard Old Economy "non-performers" for the past seven years.

He phoned me two weeks ago and told me he had moved ALL his investment monies into internet funds...this after avoiding them completely in the past.

His words to me: "it looks like the internet is here to stay."

What amused me most about that statement is this: my cousin has never owned a computer, he has never been on the internet, has NO E-Mail, and I think he would be hard pressed to say exactly what the internet is.

Instead, he was just another poor schmuck who grew envious of his friends big tech gains....and whose expenses were outstripping his Old Economy stock gains.

As much as I love the guy, he is a classic example of the dumb money that has powered this market for the past several years...and unless the laws of markets are repealed, dumb money always gets massacred in the end.



FarfelVengold (Itemus) Update #280244/4/2000; 10:23:33

Collapsing again, Now DOWN 15% today! (1.50)

Even at this price, a company whose only claim to fame is a US $50 million dollar hi tech incubator fund is still worth around $300 million???? Nuts!

This one has a lot farther to fall.



Buena Fe(No Subject)#280254/4/2000; 10:45:37

GOLD IS PRECIOUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SHIFTYgold price#280264/4/2000; 10:48:27

Dont ya just love it! Looks like things are starting to look up just a bit!
beesting@ Gandalf and Goldfly and All!#280274/4/2000; 10:52:04

Is this the BIG reallocation of assets we've been waiting all these years for?? All U.S. Stock markets in Crash mode Big Time!!! Gold just went up almost $10.00 per ounce....beesting.
The Hoople(No Subject)#280284/4/2000; 11:02:31

Isn't it amazing how for all the pundit talk of "gold has stiff resistance at $281, blah blah.." it blows to $291 in 30 minutes ! Another lesson learned. Just when you are ready to throw computer through CNBC monitor it happens. My motto is now "fade Pisani".
JourneymanThar she blows!!#280294/4/2000; 11:07:02

Crack-up boom in stock paper. Dow down 415 or 3.7%, S&P down 70.09, NASDAQ down 456 or 10.6%. Inktome lost 24% of market value just today. Anyone surprised? Anyone want to trade their gold for some stocks?

The big question: Where's the "money" going?


OROPPT dollar and Vengold#280304/4/2000; 11:08:58

PPT out in full force for a couple of mins now. Managed only to slow the fall a little so far. Specs are selling futures back to the PPT. In the minutes without support the markets decline from individual selling.

Premium just crashed.

PPT back in.

Note that the dollar is relatively unaffected, which is surprising. I guess the PPT has that to keep them occupied.

Vengold, I hung on to 25% of the initial stake. At current levels, we are close to the NAV for their Lihir shares (priced for POG $300) and cash.

Short fund has mitigated against most of the losses in the minor position remaining.

Finally, VENGF is still not a bargain by any stretch of the imagination right now.

RossLMicrosoft puts#280314/4/2000; 11:19:43

The WSJ shows large open interest in MSFT puts at 95, 90, and 85. Look out below!!!!
SteveHCircuit breakers#280324/4/2000; 11:20:34

Dow's is at 1050 down.
S&P 35, 70, 120 (has hit first two already)
Nasdaq follows lead of the DOW, now down 553.

Blood in the streets today. What is the coined phrase for 4/4/00? Bloody Tuesday? Sell-off Tuesday?

Gold up $10 plus!
Bonds kicking but with flight to quality.

NASDAQ now down 574, S&P down 86, DOW down 459.

Euro up 1.55!

Mr GreshamTime to remember what "YAHOO!!!" really means#280334/4/2000; 11:24:04

"I can't keep her steady much longer, Captain. She's goin' to blow!"

Is there already a "Black Tuesday" or is this going to be it?

Money sure makes monkeys out of the human kind, doesn't it?

TownCrierFed not involved in bank reserve operations today, but seen buying $9.5 billion in U.S. Govt securities#280344/4/2000; 11:27:57

Dealers said the Fed bought $3 billion in Treasury bills and $6.5 in coupons...most likely on behalf of the Bank of Japan as their forex intervention leaves them with a pile of dollars needing an avenue of investment. How many other institutional entities are using this activity by Japan as their divine exit opportunity from their own vast holdings of U.S. debt paper. (Such institutions could also be capitalizing on the millions of misguided Wall St. investors that are blindly choosing the bond market as their flight to safety. These institutional (international(?)) entities could be selling their own bonds once and for all into this unique bond rally at the best possible price.)

Meanwhile in Japan, while last year the first three days of April saw a net inflow of 1.2 billion yen to the postal saving system, this year upon the maturity of 3.4 billion yen in 10-year fixed rate term deposits, there was a net outflow of 720 billion yen. With a whopping 106 trillion yen in similar 10-year notes set to mature over the next two years, analysts are expecting a goodly portion of this freed cash not to be reinvested in the postal savings system, but instead to flow into other investment opportunities. Possibly gold among others?

beestingU.S. Government Wrecks Economy!!!#280354/4/2000; 11:30:01

For the last few years the U.S. economy/stock market has been supported by hi-tech stocks, most note-ably Microsoft and Mr Bill Gates. So, in this election year I don't think this was a planned event--breaking up Microsoft! Look at the current results in the stock markets today. A day of historic preportions to the downside. The question is will the smart money turn to Gold finally?
I'm glad I've got Gold in hand, right now.....beesting.

LelandWith Microsoft Down, I Thought Linux Would be up. #280364/4/2000; 11:34:29

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Gold Rally#280374/4/2000; 11:37:28

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - New York gold futures rallied sharply to their highest level in two weeks early Tuesday afternoon as investors stampeded from plunging Wall Street stocks into more secure assets, dealers said.

At 1311 EDT on the COMEX, benchmark gold for June delivery was up $7.60 at $288 an ounce, having reversed early slippage and powered above important chart resistance at $290 to $291.50, its highest since March 21.

The move into gold, historically considered a store of value in times of financial market crisis, came as falling technology shares sent the Nasdaq stock index into near freefall, to stand down 574 points, almost 14 percent, by mid afternoon.

The Invisible HandToday is Ben's last day ...#280384/4/2000; 11:38:37

... and he may have been right

jinx44 (03/21/00; 22:08:04MDT - Msg ID:27255)
The Ben post at Gold-Eagle
I just read this at Gold-Eagle; thanks Leigh for the FYI. This is the kind of prognostication that I could really take a liking
towards. One of these days the madness around us must stop...........

FROM GOLD_EAGLE------Good Evening Everyone....
(Ben) Mar 21, 21:35

I will try to best address everyones comments/questions the best that I can.

First, to the gentlemen who asked about my credibility:

I offer you this:

-I am in my early thirties.
-I have an MBA in finance from the University of MD.
-I am a investment analyst/money manager (my title is CFO) for a automotive consulting firm that I own a portion of here in
MD. I actively invest company funds. We do consulting work/training/software development for our clients who own car
dealerships and repair chains all over the US and Canada. We have developers/programmers on retainer that we hired years
back to help me build the models/databases after I got out of Grad school
-I have been trading/investing/gambling (psyche!) for most of my life. My father opened an investment account that I traded
when I was twelve years old. I didn't do that great for several years, but learned quite a bit.
-I have owned and worked in several businesses over my adult life but have always been active in the various investment
mediums. It is all that I have ever liked.
- I am a contrarian at heart.

My outlook is not one of Armageddon. So don't look to using gold bullion and coins for barter. What I am seeing is what I
believe will ultimately turn out to be a mass exodus from the US dollar and the US stock markets by most foreigners and
strong hands (the trade). This will turn out to be the most well needed corrective move in history as the equity markets are out
of control. If I see some basing action after the dump and some weak sentiment, I may be a buyer. Don't think that I hate the
US stock market. I do not. In fact I love the stock market.....but it has become an out of control, rabid, sick animal that has
resorted to scraping the bottom of the barrel to raise capital. It needs this. Gold stocks will probably take an initial
hit....maybe not. It depends how quickly Gold reacts. Most precious metals will do well. Gold will do best. The potential
returns are better and it can be moved/sold/stored/recognized by banks very easily. Gold stocks, options on futures, futures,
and bullion will all do well. Naturally the safer the choice of the above will offer the lowest returns but better nights sleep. :)
The energy complex, on the other hand, could get a little hairy. Hard to say. Personally, I believe the move has already
occured. I was a strong buyer last year at 12.50/barrel when everyone thought I was crazy. If the dollar collapses, profits of
US based oil companies could suffer and in turn not offer great returns. That is pure speculation, however. I am holding
some way out of the money Oil calls that will probably not do much.

To phos:
We use all of the conventional tech tools....Gann, Elliot, Fib #'s, Moving Averages, the whole shebang. A good portion of
our analysis measures how price and volume relate to one another in many different situations that would take two hundred
pages to explain. One simple facet that you can see for yourself that we measure is how a market shows signs of weakness
when it takes more volume to move a certain stock or index during successive periods. That is just the tip of the iceberg,
however. Just an example.

Now, here is my original post again:

(Ben) Mar 21, 15:17

I don't know if you all are interested or not, but the crap is about to hit the fan in the equities.....will give full report tonight.
simulations based on that time period and generated the same signals before they were fed the data showing declining prices
and the ensuing crash of '29). If you remember, my original post stated that within three weeks we would have a major
collapse. Well, ladies and gentlemen, we are within 10-14 days now. I know it may be a little extended from my original
post, but I didn't anticipate such a STRONG rebound from the lows of the 97-9800 area. This tells us that we should have a
day or two more (tops) of this rebound, followed by a small collapse taking out the low about ten days ago to around
9100-9400. We could see a small rally lasting maybe a one to three days off of this new low and then..........KABOOM!

Forget the PPT, forget the 401k money....It's over and you can bank on that.

The U.S. Dollar should move almost in step with all of this madness which will guessed it.... A freaking

I will post this message once more this evening and that will be it for a while.....we are in position and will just wait and
watch. It may be my last post. I told you I would not post anymore if things did not unfold almost exactly as posted. I am
that confident in the signals we are seeing.

By the may be wondering on some specifics of where this action would leave the DOW and GOLD in terms of

We are seeing the Dow settling around 5-6000 and Gold having several limit days initially followed by a small selloff (profit
taking) and then the moon again but more gradual and reminiscent of a true BULL.

For what it's worth to you all....even if it is a laugh.

We aren't laughing here, however.

If you have loved ones in this thing....get them out and do it quick. There isn't much time.

Best wishes...

schippiHourly Select Gold Chart#280394/4/2000; 12:04:42

Select Gold moving Up!
OROHHH - internet semi closed end fund - block trade#280404/4/2000; 12:10:01

Someone bought a 167000 position in one go about 20 mins ago.

That is a 20 million trade.

Another 150000 block traded at 14:00

Premium continues to swing wildly from well above fair value during PPT interventions to well below fair value during the arbitrageur spread trading. The stable level seems to be squarely below fair value - indicating spec liquidation and fresh shorting of this rebound.

TownCrierThis was expected: White House says U.S. fundamentals remain strong#280414/4/2000; 12:18:18

Reuters reports that a top White House economic aide, Gene Sperling, chairman of the White House National Economic Council told reporters today "We believe that the very fundamentals of our economy look still very, very strong." He added, "The underlying fundamentals of our economy remain quite strong. Obviously we monitor all of the variables out there, certainly oil prices have been something we've been monitoring .. and certainly we will monitor developments in the market as well."

Be that as it may, if they feel compelled to jawbone the markets, where was their official voice of concern when asset prices started to become bubbly? The Fed Chairman has been the only voice, in December 1996, saying he saw signs of "irrational exuberance."

OROHHH - more block trades#280424/4/2000; 12:44:35

I just noticed that these trades float above the market - just above ask.

Saw another 50000 order

Sell orders with a note of "depth on offer" indicating willingness to sell by a large holder.

SP premiums held at good premiums over fair value in one more spurt of support.


Town Crier

We don't have economic fundumentals within the US. The bulk of our economy is importation of the "good fundumentals" of the exporting nations (20-25% of economy) and trading of them, coupled with the trade and export of paper of all sorts and real estate (25% of economy).
We have only the demand portion of fundumentals.
We have only the inventory and transport part of "supply", and technology is reducing the importance of this portion by reducing some of the costs of distribution.

OROHHH - more block trades#280434/4/2000; 12:51:51

14:48:45 142.500 100000 AMEX at Ask

$1 above trading range.

YGMRepost: Gold-Eagle Forum.#280444/4/2000; 12:56:23

Marcia.....Too Near The Truth? YES!...IMO....YGM.

(Marcia)Apr 04, 14:45 Do you suppose the money that the PPT uses to buy the indexes during a crash like today's was acquired by selling gold calls over a period of time? It wouldn't surprise me to learn that the PPT = the ESF. Given the amount of foreign money in our markets, it wouldn't be a surprise at all if the ESF considers the stock markets within their purview. Who else could it be throwing money at the indexes and pushing the NASDAQ from -540 to -160 in a couple of hours? That's BIG money. And today's coitus interruptus in spot gold coincides perfectly with NASDAQ's return from the abyss.

Blatant manipulation for political purposes to try to keep the market alive until after the election. After yesterday's and today's action, I don't think they can. We'll see.

I predict a strong downdraft towards 3-3:30 pm - unless the markets are halted that time!

It's not over yet.

IronHeadSir Oro- Thanks A Tonne#280454/4/2000; 13:17:02

Really appreciate your play by play updates with respect to volume and movement- don't stop; I have no TV, so I am missing all the "excitement" other than the forum.

If you get a chance (after the music stops), I'd be curious to get your impressions as to how long Da Boyz can keep ahead of the pack- ie. can they buy this market indefinetly?

Thanks Again,

Cage RattlerUSD/SDR range#280464/4/2000; 13:28:40

Interesting to note that during the dollar plunge an hour or so ago, USD/SDR briefly popped out of the 1.34-1.35 range. It hit around 1.3528 if I remember correctly. Now it's safely back inside.
The table below can be used for easy reference given different values of the euro:
Assume GBPUSD=1.5950.
EURUSD=value; USDJPY=min , max
EURUSD=0.94; USDJPY=100.90, 104.75
EURUSD=0.95; USDJPY=102.20, 106.20
EURUSD=0.96; USDJPY=103.55, 107.65
EURUSD=0.97; USDJPY=105.00, 109.20
EURUSD=0.98; USDJPY=106.40, 110.75

PhosORO - PPT#280474/4/2000; 13:50:48

I would greatly appreciate it if you could explain exactly how the PPT turns the market. I understand that they buy the S&P Premium. What exactly is this and why does it so influence the buying patterns? Apologies if this has been explained before. If so, maybe someone could point me to the explanation. Thanks
ElwoodPhos#280484/4/2000; 14:03:36

Theoretically, a person or a PPT can move these markets by buying heavily the futures, thus causing a difference between the cash and futures. Arbitrageurs then step in and buy the cash (underlying securities), and thus the cash index moves up or stops falling. There are some twists, but that's the gist of what, in theory, the PPT does. Note: this works in all markets that have derivatives or futures associated with them. I understand that the PPT is made up of money-center bankers (in addition to treasury officials), so I'd assume their wherewithal to buy these futures are virtually unlimited.

The PPT can move these markets as long as there are arbitrageurs willing and able to make money on the spread between the futures and cash. Whether this can go on indefinitely is something I think we'll see very soon.

MarkeTalkStock Market Dike Cracks Wide Open#280494/4/2000; 14:08:11

As stated in earlier posts, intermediate cycles pointed to the week of March 27th through April 3rd as the most likely time for stocks to top and then start down. Well, the markets came in on cue with a little help from Janet "Rambo" Reno and the "Plunge Microsoft Team." Actually, it amazes me how such events just seem to come together at the critical time, panic strikes and the herd thunders in the opposite direction. Synergy, synergy! Gold finally showed signs of its old self and jumped $11.40 at one point before the PPT came in to rescue the DOW and SP 500. The carnage in the NASDAQ appears massive and may not spring back for a long time. Margin calls are going out today and tomorrow and should add to further selling of all markets. By Thursday or Friday, stocks should seek out a lower level and gold will hopefully be in its uptrend again. Over the next few months, I expect stocks to decline even more which should feed the gold rally. It is time to load the boat with gold before everyone else rushes in to buy.
MidEastGoldThe Stock market is but ONE indicator....Part one#280504/4/2000; 14:39:26

Having been lurkers for a over a year now, we (as a couple) began to wonder just if we have been brain washed by reading USAGOLD as faithfully as we do, and wonder if gold is worth the price that one must pay for it. Here's a capsule of one aspect that we lookied at in the myriad of facts out there. If you'll spare us the space and time, here it is:

ECONOMICS 101: "An introduction to "Why Gold is a better than just a Good Deal"
According to the 2000 World Almanac there are 10 Indexes that are used as economic indicators to project the U.S. economy's performance. The 10 indexes are the following: (quote)
1. Average weekly hours of production workers in manufacturing
2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, state programs
3. Manufacturer's new orders for consumer goods and materials, adjusted for inflation
4. Vendor performance (slower deliveries diffusion index)
5. Manufacturer's new orders, non-defense capital goods industries, adjusted for inflation
6. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
7. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
8. Money supply: M-2 adjusted for inflation
9. Interest rate spread, 10-yr. Treasury bonds less federal funds
10. Consumer expectations (researched by Univ. of Michigan)

In addition to those listed above, many use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as an indicator for inflation.

The CPI takes the average cost of certain items (today it is divided into 8 different groups: Food, Housing, Apparel, Transportation, Medical Care, Recreation , Other Goods, and Services.) From here on out I will only use the figures from the composite CPI that weighs "all items".

MidEastGoldThe stock market is but one indicator (part two)#2805104/04/00; 14:41:09

The CPI is a peculiar instrument. It has re-set it's baseline values at least twice since it was created. The CPI in use today is valued using the years of 1982-84 as their base line (i.e. the value of the average of these years' CPI is now considered to be equal to $1.00.)

<< For those who like analogies, I liken this to being in a race as a child and just as you near the finish line and you are win the race by touching the tree you stare at in amazement as the other child RACES past you as he says, "That tree's not the finish line, but this one is…..he touches and "wins". It does not matter if you challenge the other child to another race because it will always end up the same and you will never win. Note, these re-valuations enable all sorts of creative statistics by economists.>>

At any rate, on p.112 of the 2000 World Almanac there is a table of the CPI from 1915-1999 using the year 1967 as their base-line value (i.e. the value of the CPI of 1967 is used as being equal to $1.00)

These values reveal the astounding inflation that we are dealing with. Just take a look. For fun I tacked on the Price of silver and oil too -J.

YearCPIAvg POGAvgPOSilverRetail Price of Gasoline (unleaded regular)

1915.30420.72.561not avail
1920.6020.68.655not avail
1935.41134.84.584not avail
1945 .53934.71.708not avail
1960 .88735.27.914not avail
19671.0034.952.06not avail
19701.16335.941.635not avail
19751.612161.024.085 61.4(1976)
1985 3.222317.265.88120.2
1995 4.565384.175.14114.7
1999 4.955278.885.21107.0

Now, what does the CPI have to do with the POG???

We are dealing with 495% inflation since 1967!!!! Simply put, the $300 (rounded to make calculations easier) that I put into an ounce of gold today is roughly equivelent to $60 an ounce in 1967 (what was the POG in 1967? $34.95.) Let's take another year after the infamous cut from the gold standard. The $300 an ounce I pay today would have been $195.15 for an ounce of gold in 1985 (POG in 1985 was $383.51) Conclusion, we are able to buy an ounce of gold for less in real $ than we have been able to since the cut from the gold standard.

PhosElwood #2805204/04/00; 14:54:39

Many thanks for the explanation. What is the S&P Premium? Is this a subset of the S&P?
MidEastGoldRats!! Try the table again!! It's important.#2805304/04/00; 15:01:03

Year CPI Avg POG AvgPOSilver $/GALLON
1915 .304 20.72 .561 not avail
1920 .60 20.68 .655 not avail
1935 .411 34.84 .584 not avail
1945 .539 34.71 .708 not avail
1960 .887 35.27 .914 not avail
1967 1.00 34.95 2.06 not avail
1970 1.163 35.94 1.635 not avail
1975 1.612 161.02 4.085 61.4(1976)
1980 2.488 612.5616.39 124.5
1985 3.222 317.265.88 120.2
1995 4.565 384.175.14 114.7
1999 4.955 278.88 5.21 107.0

ElwoodPhos#2805404/04/00; 15:17:08

The Premium or Spread is the difference between the futures and cash index values. As the index future approaches expiration the premium goes to zero.
TownCrierA Tale of Two "Cities"#2805504/04/00; 16:10:57

The contrast of the carefully planned gradual introduction of the euro in phases to replace the various European national currencies VERSUS this situation in Ecuador...

HEADLINE: Ecuadoreans confused as dollars replace local currency

An electronic goods salesman in the capital city Quito said, "I don't have any idea how to work with the dollar. I think they should have given us instructions on how to do this."

In response to an embattled national currency, the Ecuadorean Sucre, (which had reached an annualized inflation rate of 80%) the government passed a law in March to adopt the U.S. dollar as its main currency, with sucres to remain for a time to facilitate small purchases. The fixed exchange rate is 25,000 sucres per one dollar, and cash machines are already spitting out the green bills. The problem is that, according to Reuters, only 1 in 5 citizens "has ever seen a dollar bill in their life, and 50 percent of the population has no idea what 'dollarization' is."

What a fiasco. Although television ads have been run to educate the citizens, and to help them combat a real problem of people pawning off bogus dollars to the unfamiliarized citizens, the plan remains ill-conceived. One woman said, "I don't understand this dollarization business, so I'm confused as to how I'm going to make money. I don't know what dollarization is going to be like and what they say on television I don't understand." An architect voiced his dismay like this, "People are familiar with the sucre. Within it is narrated part of our history. Now we have these coins with faces that are completely unknown for us, distant from our history, from what we are."

It would appear there was no need to be delicate in this currency transformation because the dollar was already established...the human element was thrown aside with the thought that the burden is on them to adapt via a steep learning curve. Such is the price to be paid when reacting to conditions from a position of desperation as we see in Ecuador but NOT within the Euroland monetary union.

Given what they've done to their own currency, will Ecuador be a net asset or liability to the U.S. dollars?

RhialtoORO - Vengold#2805604/04/00; 16:14:08

ORO - enjoy your posts as always.
Vengold's hairbrained scheme to sell their own stock to buy LIHIR stock totally backfired on them last year. With 125M shares outstanding and $21M in cash, with the LIHIR shares equal to VENGF's debt, this company's track record of destroying it own shareholder value is appalling. On 3/31 it issued a press release in which they pretend to have an interest in Itemus assets (or some minimal interest in various "internet" companies). Read it and see if you can make any sense out of it. Whom did they pay how much for what? The good news is that the stock is still trading at about $1.75 and shareholders who saw a stock with about $0.15 book value per share and no legitimate business plan 6 months ago go from $0.50 to $2.50 can still get out. I hesitate to post this since I suspect that there is some private joke here on a thread I havn't seen, but them's the facts. Best wishes.

TownCrierCOMEX delivery sought on the April gold futures#2805704/04/00; 16:37:27

Delivery notices climbed today by another 284 contracts (28,400 ounces) to bring the total thus far for the month to 9,146 contracts (28.4 tonnes).

April open interest in the gold contract had been reduced to 1,353 after yesterday's session. Meanwhile, open interest in the June contract climbed to 85,924. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see what the fallout from today's derivative trading action has been.

Any way you slice it, for an individual gold accumulator, it remains a freakish yet wondrous (and surely temporary) condition to be able to purchase and acquire the physical metal at prices dictated by trading among the vast paper supply of gold derivatives. A bargain while this form of market structure lasts. (Please recall the lead example of the Dutch and Austrian central banks for their latest gold mobilizations. They made no effort to conceal that they were opting to use the BIS to facilitate their necessary allocations.) If you hold your apparent wealth in dollars, then verily, your fate is not in your own hands.

K Golden(No Subject)#2805804/04/00; 16:37:42

Hi liquidating some of my silver eagles (99), gold eagles and silver maple leafs. If interested, Email me for details.

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Cavan ManEquities Markets#2805904/04/00; 16:39:34

Utterly amazing action in the markets today! Why would anyone (not dead from the neck up) invest in this sort of vehicle with hard earned product from labor? I know the long term, big picture but this (wild gyrations) is getting ridiculous.

Perhaps Mr. Greenspan doesn't discuss valuations in the context of "irrational exuberance" anymore becasue he knows the markets have reached the point of no return; i.e., a critical mass truly too big to let fail. Of course, the larger problem I think is what might happen if the markets do fail.

Buena FeMidEastGold (04/04/00; 14:41:09MDT - Msg ID:28051)#2806104/04/00; 17:13:27

Just remember that the US$ price of gold in 1960 (ie $34.95) was also a smoke & mirrors mirage that the Europeans (particularly the French) defrocked by patiently converting their trade dollars at the then "gold window", until one day the US (Nixon) couldn't take it any more and finally defaulted! Come to think of it the last 70+ years of US financial/banking history has involved a almost continues manipulation/management of the "currency value" of gold as relative to the US dollar! I THINK ITS NOW OVER!

Harley DavidsonCavan Man, your message ID:28059#2806204/04/00; 17:26:39

You brought up an interesting point... are the markets too big to fail. Today's activity certainly provides support for such a claim. If so, then why not jump on the band wagon? Hedging the bet with ownership of physical gold of course. Or is there a limit to this kind of manipulation? Hard to imagine with the manipulators in control of the printing presses.

Also, doesn't the PPT behavior seem to be inconsistent with Greenspan's whining about excessive exuberance? Isn't this a classic example of moral hazard?

Hill Billy MitchellOfficial release#2806304/04/00; 17:35:29

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 3, 2000

Rates for Friday, March 31

Federal funds 6.17

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.88
10-year 6.03
20-year 6.20
30-year 5.84

TownCrierSir Cavan Man's question#2806404/04/00; 17:36:32

"IYHO, is it prudent to rotate out of dollars into metal if only until the storm passes?"

You will agree that is a tough one to speak about in any semblance of absolutes. With that said, my response...

It depends on the nature of the "storm" and the new reality of the aftermath of its passing.

Think of a dollar wealthy man as a plantation owner rich in tobacco. Prior to the storm (hurricane?) he might be well advised to pull in his leafy stuff and ship it off while it yet has value in exchange for something (gold?) that can weather the storm.

When the new day dawns, he must look at the remains of the day. Perhaps the landscape is no longer suitable for raising tobacco leaf. Perhaps rice paddies become the obvious choice when that day arrives. He will have to wait and see. At any rate, he will have the means (gold) by which to pursue his choice. His neighbor who watched his own fields and warehouses of tobacco leaf blow away will not be so resilient. Having a portion of wealth in a universal hard asset would have improved his prospects going forward. Can he buy rice if he has only rotting tobacco? Or if the familiar landscape survives, can he acquire new tobacco seeds when all he has is soggy, rotten leaves and barren ground?

To further help answer your question, place yourself within the borders of Ecuador. You have seen your sucre currency severely devalue (greatly destroying the purchasing power of your savings) such that the government has stepped in to change the currency to the dollar.

Clearly, the particular outcome of this storm is different than the outcome of the devaluation storm that visited other nations. But does this dollarization mark the end of the storm or only a phase of one larger? It must come under judgement of the day and place you find yourself.

But to help further, in theory ask yourself this as though you were randomly set down in any (possibly Third World?) nation of the world: what purpose is served by currency in and of itself? . . . What are its vulnerabilities, and can you contol them? . . . What directly facilitates your ability to live another day (assuming good health)? . . . How can you represent many physical assets in a small, easily portable and tradable form? . . . When you carefully evaluate the subtle trends among the leading "powers" of the world, do you get the sense that your local answers to these questions would stand you in good form to participate in the world economy, or would you likely be left behind? Can you produce either from savings or from your own mind or your own two hands something that the rest of the world demands? If so, you will likely be able to meet your needs.

Thanks for thinking along these important lines.

Hudsonaffect on mutual funds?#2806504/04/00; 17:51:53

I have been reading and learning from this forum for two months now, and would like to know how this crash and the jump in gold affects mutual funds ie: precious metals funds.
I have a portion of my investments in there, buying low before the last two spikes in the last few months.

PS: The info that is posted here is great. In two months, I have heard "tips" on this forum, and I invested "imaginary money" according to these tips, and so far up about 10% + 16.67%. Not bad for 2 months...not bad at all!

Any replys would be very helpful. Thanx

ZenideaInteresting stuff at Le Metrople#2806604/04/00; 18:00:21

April 3 .. Man Ray Table .... In short , the extraordinary contemporary turbulence could just be an augury of the last days of a wobbly bubble.
4/4... James Joyce Table ....1st paragraph
CHAOS - THE VOLCANO SMOLDERS. Goldman Sachs pressured gold early today but as soon as they got word what was about to occur in the equity markets, both they and Morgan bank turned massive early buyers. By late morning gold was advancing in staunch fashion- $10 higher- when Goldman Sachs
turned massive seller and then stopped the gold price rally at -289.50 right below the magic 290 number ..........

Zenidea. Blood pressures, pulse rates and gastic noise
followed by pupil dilation, sweating hands, leg shaking and smiles increased today whilst pacing the floor and intence coin tossing transpired on the planet. :).

Cavan ManHarley Davidson#2806704/04/00; 18:10:13

Good point(s). I have ridden up BearX a little bit and think I might sell now. Much as I love Tice's commentary and believe he is right on, I don't think he can win but for a very unusual and sudden event that will completely spook everyone and I do mean everyone.

TG seems to think they'll crash. James Turk thinks they might inflate to infinity and beyond :). Damned if I know. When has it ever been this complicated to concoct a reasonable investment strategy?

FarfelToday's action proved one thing....#2806804/04/00; 18:10:54

For several years, we have heard how crashing stock markets would devastate gold equities.

That is simply not true, as I have stated time and time again over the past few years.

Gold equities already had their crash some time ago, and most trade at sub-basement levels.

When the NASDAQ, DOW, BONDS, and US DOLLAR are falling simultaneously, there will be a flight to both physical gold and gold equities. Where else will money go? Obviously for some equities such as Barrick or Anglogold (the heavy hedgers), there might be much weakness at a point where gold breaks above 450. But for the rest of the gold equities group, there should be amazing price increases.

With the DOW and NASDAQ falling hard today, gold equities were one of only TWO strong sectors. The gold equities probably would have been much stronger today if gold investors had a stronger belief in the sustainability of today's stock market market weakness. However, most goldbugs have learned to expect Clinton government interference to sustain the market bubble and of course as usual it happened again. Once the Clinton government can no longer sustain its many years of interventions, then gold and gold equities will roar through the roof.

Finally, nobody should be surprised why stock market bulls constantly appear on these gold forums to warn of gold's demise if the stock market crashes. Naturally, they want gold investors to believe that a strong stock market is in their best interests.

Of course, it is not, and the proof exists in gold's dismal performance during the strongest stock markets in US history.

Gold will only shine once the general public recognizes the absurd overvaluations in general equities, bonds, and the US Dollar itself.



RossLHarley Davidson-28062, Cavan Man#2806904/04/00; 18:14:28

I will make a lot of assumptions here...

Can the PPT print money endlessly? If the PPT=ESF then they would already have billions to buy futures with. However, if the ESF is also supporting the dollar-SDR rate at the same time, then the dollars that pour into the futures market will do double damage if the sellers who are cashing out are overseas and dump the dollars on the FOREX markets.
Seems hard to imagine that 40 billion would last long if all these assumptions are true. They would have to bleed dry sometime. If the markets are too big to fail, the dollar is toast.

RossLFarfel#2807004/04/00; 18:18:10

If Joe Nasduck gets a margin call, and the only way he can raise cash is by selling his gold miner shares or physical, then gold equities can be sold off. SO, how many high-tech Joe Nasducks have gold miner shares ?
TownCrierSir Harley Davidson and Cavan Man#2807104/04/00; 18:39:01

"...are the markets too big to fail? Today's activity certainly provides support for such a claim. If so, then why not jump on the band wagon? Hedging the bet with ownership of physical gold of course. Or is there a limit to this kind of manipulation?"

Granted, the media can spin a news story to leave nearly any desired impression, but the CNN interviews with the average man on the street revealed him to be unflappable and citing this as a perfect buying opportunity. Many were said to be throwing money at their stock brokers to get in where they had missed out before. Assuming this mad money fuelled the late day recovery, what money will be left in hands interested in buying stocks come tomorrow?? Or if the rest used today's "recovery" as their signal for the 'All Clear' such that they will enter the market tomorrow, who with money will be interested in getting into a higher market two days from now?

The effect to this point reminds me of the game of Hot Potato, but with the dollar instead. Nobody wants to hold them very long for their own sake. When they are passed back and forth through stock purchases among Wall Street investors, stock prices climb as a result with little in the way of valid justification. And as long as most people refrain from "real economy" purchases, prices for real things remain reasonable (assited of course by the recent economic crises overseas that have provided us with cheap imports). This seems to be changing. If people come to see that stocks are not a sure-fire guarantee to increase their currency accounts, the first flight will be to cash. And when they realize that cash itself is a depreciating commodity against real goods (the things that increase or sustain our quality of life) the next flight soon thereafter will be into the real economy of limited real goods. Then we will see a price (hyper?)-inflation to match the existing currency supply inflation that has been built over the years.

Is the market too big to fail? I can certainly see why the government might be inspired to use every trick of the trade to sustain this diversion away from a flight to real goods. Can it last? Can we really be convinced that we are seeing a "new economy" that doesn't follow the rules of the past? Maybe...but that would require the suspension of human nature: Greed and Fear. I doubt that attainment of vast paper wealth on the markets would be content to stay there while living a modest lifestyle. People would be inclined to sell for cash in order to buy things for a more luxurious lifestyle. This trickle of greed (to get real things while the getting is good) will turn into a flood of fear and selling as people see the stock prices falling in relation to the rising prices of life's necessities and luxuries.

"Too big to fail?" Certainly, it is too big to fail without serious consequences. But when it comes to the ability of any government will to sustain it, here in The Tower we feel this phrase is more accurate: Too big to save.

It just can't be done...not without a hyperinflation to maintain the stock prices. But in such an event, the relative value of these same companies compared against real goods (especially gold) will decline miserably, though they would still be better than holding common currency in that event.

ZenideaAs expected#2807204/04/00; 19:07:16

Aussie CB raises benchmark Interest rate to 5.75% from 5.5%
this morning.

FarfelROSSL: re: Joe Nasduck#2807304/04/00; 19:32:10

First, the logic that impels someone to invest in gold is entirely foreign to the logic that inspires NASDAQ investments.

A person must be categorically schizophrenic in order to hold both investments simultaneously since one is very much a bet against the other today. For one to rise, the other must fail.

I know a lot of NASDAQ investors at this point in my life and not a single one of them owns a single gold stock nor a single ounce of gold. So by empirical evidence and extrapoloation, that suggests that most NASDAQ investors do not buy gold...yet.

Moreover, the common scenario posited by stock market bulls is that if there is a crash, then investors will liquidate gold or gold stocks to raise money for margin calls.

However, if gold and gold stocks are soaring, while NASDAQ stocks are tanking, then why would the relatively few individuals (percentage wise) who own both want to part with his/her gold stocks. Logically, those would be the last holdings to be sold, as they would represent real security in such a panicky environment.

No, I have said this in the past and I'll say it again: you cannot compare today's devastated gold market with either 1929 or 1987 in which a large segment of the investor population owned both gold and gold stocks and were in a position to dump gold bullion plus relatively healthy gold companies's stocks in order to raise liquidity.

Today the average bullish investor is NOT in gold/gold stocks and so the average investor has NO gold or gold stocks to dump.

However, there are a fair number of wealthy individuals who are cash rich and on the sidelines. If they witness a market meltdown occurring alongside stable or rapidly rising gold/gold equities (as we saw today), then they most likely will direct funds to the gold sector before any other industrial sector.



Mr GreshamBears & paper markets#2807404/04/00; 19:40:26

Lots of bears talk about their trades today, poor executions, lagging reporting, bad spreads. Moral: You can be right on your bets at the casino, but they'll do everything possible to avoid paying off your winning bet!

Once again, I've borrowed Steven Solomon's "The Confidence Game: How unelected central bankers are governing the changed world economy" (1995, Simon & Schuster, 600pp). I'll soon be seeing just how much I've learned in the past year since first reading it, after hanging around here since August.

I still know of NO other book about the Central Banks that might give some insights into FOA's timelines on Euro replacing $, and gold's role in future of major currencies. I reviewed Mundell's website over the weekend and of course he does not tip his hand as to what Euro's creators think about such prospects. Surely, someone somewhere in the whole world(-wide web) has speculated on this? Anyone?

TownCrierSirs JCTex and Hudson...#2807504/04/00; 19:49:00

JCTex, thank you for your very kind affirmation and endorsement in your recent post:
JCTex (04/03/00; 20:08:13MDT - Msg ID:28003)
TownCrier: re.: msg. #27983
Your description:
"You see, many mutual funds are compelled by their charter to keep a certain percentage of their funds in stocks. They simply can not flee to the sidelines or jump ship, but instead must run from one side of the listing ship to the other, back and forth, bailing water but sinking nonetheless in the end."

This may be the most descriptive and accurate explanation of the so-called equity markets that I have seen or expect to see. This one is worthy of notation by the historians in the years to come.


Perhaps that small piece of thought may help Sir Hudson with his question from earlier today: "I have been reading and learning from this forum for two months now, and would like to know how this crash and the jump in gold affects mutual funds ie: precious metals funds."

The effect of market movements upon these funds would depend on the particular fund's investment strategy charter, and ultimately upon the performance of the collective assets under management by that fund. And here is a telling example to cover additional bases: if the fund consistently buys an asset at the peak and sells at the trough even in a generally rising trend of that asset, the fund could actually be losing money. You can see, the performance also depends on the wisdom with which the fund manager makes his decisions. So, its hard to say for certain what outcome to expect, but generally, rising gold would help precious metals oriented mutual funds to rise also.

LeighJoe Nasduck Lives at My House!#2807604/04/00; 19:55:26

Dear Farfel: I laughed when I saw your latest message. Joe Nasduck, the eternal optimist, "is" my own husband! When Joe (not his real name) came home today, I asked if he had heard about the almost-crash. He said he'd heard something about it in the office, but that later the radio newscaster said investors had bought back on the dips. Joe expressed regret that I'd tied up money in gold, because stocks were selling at bargain prices.

My husband's a smart, well-educated guy. But as you said, gambling on the Nasdaq and buying gold as protection against a crash are like oil and water. At our house we have "his" stocks and "her" gold, and we try to steer our conversations away from financial matters!

pdeepForeign Money flows#2807704/04/00; 20:04:05

I wonder if foreign investors holding US equities that got hit with an extra 2% losses due to the dollar fall will be as sanguine about holding on to the shares, or whether they'll take their toys and go home.
PH in LAAPB: (All Points Bulletin) "Where is Aragorn III"#2807804/04/00; 20:06:18

Where is the guy who could write like this? Do you still frequent these pages, Aragorn? Do you have any other names, that we might know you?

Aragorn III (2/16/99; 16:20:44MDT - Msg ID:2462)
Goldfly, my strong-winged friend...
"Goldfly (2/15/99; 20:43:07MDT - Msg ID:2438)
Has anybody here seen my friend Aragorn......?
Hey!! What happened to A3? He predicted a rhino, then a contest,
then....... Nada!
Come on Aragorn, get your two grains worth in there! Tell us what the
April contract will be on Friday!"
As enjoyable as visiting the FORUM would have been, this weekend, alas, I must be content with reveiwing the archives this afternoon. Commitment to a project left me precious little time for anything else...and as you know, a prediction may require much time and thought--else it remains a useless guess.

I predict that you will not be satisfied with my prediction. I further predict that at end-of-day Friday, the COMEX contract for delivery of gold in April will BE (as it ever has) the "betting slip" between counterparties that may or may not have any connection with the metal, but have nonetheless come together at COMEX to wager each on their side of the speculation. And as this speculation walks tall among those few hunching and scrambling quietly for the scraps upon the floor, there can be little doubt as to what activity influences the price. They might just as well be betting upon the weather. And if enough people told you it was dark and stormy, would you cancel the picnic when your own eyes reveal the sun to be shining brightly? Grab your basket and special person; all tables and swings in the park are yours as many people are indeed influenced by the "bad weather on paper".

I predict that on Friday gold will be as it ever has been. Gold. Shining brightly. Who will join with me in trusting their own eyes?

This opportunity is lost when the paper guidance becomes discredited from a growing general sense of departure from reality. The day will arrive when the sunny park is full of visitors, no matter what the "storm on paper" says about the weather. Aristotle had it right. Take this picnic and walk in the park on your own terms.

LeighMissing Posters#2807904/04/00; 20:14:22

PH, lately we've missed several other heavy hitters. Where in the world is Stranger? Solomon Weaver hasn't checked in for several weeks. I miss Goldspoon's cheerful posts very much. I was even beginning to wonder where you were!
TownCrierGood article! Nasdaq's volaitility not seen stifling Fed's inclination toward future rate hikes#2808004/04/00; 20:16:22

While the Fed is said to welcome an orderly stock market pullback to assist their efforts at slowing consumer spending, they don't want a free-fall either. Analysts expect rate hikes to continue in May and June even in tandem with an orderly, declining market. An economist with Bear Stearns said, "The Fed wants 3.5 percent economic growth. I don't think anything that happened today gets them closer to that. I would certainly expect them to carry on (raising rates) at the May meeting and at the June meeting."

According to this Reuters article, the Fed is concerned that "the enormous paper wealth created in the past few years is boosting consumer spending to unsustainable levels." Economist David Resler said, "Greenspan and other Fed officials have warned for a long time that asset markets are overvalued and a sense of rationality needs to take hold."

The article offers good concluding remarks. If the Nasdaq bursts with a *POP!*, the Fed will likely be blamed by many for letting the speculation get out of hand. After saying that the three 1998 rate cuts were needed to keep the financial markets from locking up, it also set the stage for the Nasdaq rally that followed. However, Resler makes the keen observation, "The Fed's job is not to prevent stupidity from taking hold," saying that their mission is to keep inflation low, and so far they have done that.
So far...but methinks the situation has become too difficult to manage for long. We shall see.

lamprey_65Farfel: Gold Stocks during a market crash#2808104/04/00; 20:16:25

Farfel, I agree - gold stocks need not fall during a market crash, and everything I've seen the past few months shows me they are rallying during heavy market downturns. Remember one point, however, in order for gold stocks to rally ESPECIALLY the junior miners...the price of gold has to go up. In '98 gold stocks fell because Asian nations (such as Korea) were selling gold...this forced the price of gold down and gold stocks fell during the market's decent. One the POG rallied - so did the gold stocks.

The XAU follows the POG, not the other way around.

R PowellToasty dollars#2808204/04/00; 20:49:28

**From Ross L, "If the markets are too big to fail, the dollar is toast." Well said. Even if the ESF and PPT keep intervening, they must print more and more dollars for their gameplaying. How long will the rest of the world keep accepting them? What if they return but not as equity investment money but as payment for real goods.
** Another thought, Now we know about how bad it has to get for the "flight to safety" to look to precious metals. Uncertainty and volatility seem to be good friends of gold and silver.
** Question for ORO, Why did the PPT wait so long to intervene and do you feel they are secure, operating within their means, sure of themselves. How risk free is their operation. I don't believe it can go on forever but how "tricky" is the manipulation- is it just some phone calls or is it a mission impossible type (delicate) operation? Hard to phrase exactly. Thanks.

VoyagerPPT ?#2808304/04/00; 21:10:37

Would someone please explain the meaning.

Recently it was spring vacation and had the chance to read The Velocity of Money by Stephen Rhodes. A very interesting & exciting book. Thank you to all on the forum,with the past years of financial education received here, the book had a great deal of meaning in context to the discussions here.

JourneymanToo big to save @TownCrier Msg ID:28071#2808404/04/00; 21:11:34


Here's some relevant info to support your contention that things, in the case of this example the world's ninth largest economy, are indeed often "Too big to save" as per:

"'Too big to fail?' Certainly, it is too big to fail
without serious consequences. But when it comes to the
ability of any government will to sustain it, here in
The Tower we feel this phrase is more accurate: Too
big to save." -TownCrier (04/04/00; 18:39:01MDT - Msg ID:28071)
Sir Harley Davidson and Cavan Man

- Although US, IMF, etc. have indicated support for Brazil, it's the world's ninth largest economy and will have to sink or swim on its own. Brazil's future largely depends on greatly reducing the budget deficit. -CNBC, 18
Sep 1998, ~4:05:01 PM EDT

- ~"While they haven't approved any loan, suppose in the next week or so, the IMF gave Brazil a $30 billion bail-out loan. Would that be sufficient? How would the markets react?"-Ron Insanna ~"Well, considering IMF gave $22 billion for Russia, a small economy, $30 billion is considered insufficient for Brazil, the world's ninth largest economy." -Sonia Dawson, -CNBC, 5 Oct 1998, ~3:40:50 PM EDT

- The question is will this spread to the rest of Latin America, which amounts to 20% of trade with America. Will the Mexican peso be hit when the markets open today? Russia didn't spread, but it is a relatively small economy and is effectively insulated from the rest of the world. Is this another black eye for the IMF. Yes, probably, because $2 billion has left Brazil since the beginning of January despite IMF loan guarantees of over $41 billion. Brazil simply can't afford this. Some people see the U.S. economy as strong, but this can't go on forever, and a decline in Latin American trade won't help. Some [Japan for example] see the latest U.S. stockmarket runup as a bubble. -Nick Hastings, Sr. Foreign Exchange Correspondent, Dow Jones News Wire, CNBC, 13 Jan 1999, ~8:34:22 AM EST


JCTexVoyager: ppt#2808504/04/00; 21:18:40

PPT: Plunge Protection Team [unofficial-official government manipulation group. Purpose is to prevent the market from crashing and hurting "Wimpy" & Tipper's chances of being elected].
TownCrierSir Journeyman, thanks for the citations on Brazil to build the case#2808604/04/00; 21:27:37

When it comes to media briefs, you are truly a one-man tour de force...and a real pleasure to have occupying a seat at this Table.
VoyagerPPT#2808704/04/00; 21:28:34

Thank you. Now I can only hope they fail. PPT job is to protect markets from large swings? As in today coming into markets and buying?

I understand what the ESF stands for but what does it do? It an official part of fed banking system?

GoldiehawkVoyager about PPT#2808804/04/00; 21:32:08

From an old article:

Plunge Protection Team
By Brett D. Fromson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 23, 1997; Page H01
It is 2 o'clock on a hypothetical Monday afternoon, and the Dow Jones industrial average has plummeted 664 points, on top of a 847-point slide the previous week.

The chairman of the New York Stock Exchange has called the White House chief of staff and asked permission to close the world's most important stock market. By law, only the president can authorize a shutdown of U.S. financial markets.

In the Oval Office, the president confers with the members of his Working Group on Financial Markets -- the secretary of the treasury and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The officials conclude that a presidential order to close the NYSE would only add to the market's panic, so they decide to ride out the storm. The Working Group struggles to keep financial markets open so that trading can continue. By the closing bell, a modest rally is underway.

This is one of the nightmare scenarios that Washington's top financial policymakers have reviewed since Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 508 points, or 22.6 percent, in the biggest one-day loss in history. Like defense planners in the Cold War period, central bankers and financial regulators have been thinking carefully about how they would respond to the unthinkable.

An outline of the government's plans emerges in interviews with more than a dozen current and former officials who have participated in meetings of the Working Group. The group, established after the 1987 stock drop, is the government's high-level forum for discussion of financial policy.

Just last Tuesday afternoon, for example, Working Group officials gathered in a conference room at the Treasury Building. They discussed, among other topics, the risks of a stock market decline in the wake of the Dow's sudden surge past 7000, according to sources familiar with the meeting. The officials pondered whether prices in the stock market reflect a greater appetite for risk-taking by investors. Some expressed concern that the higher the stock market goes, the closer it could be to a correction, according to the sources.

These quiet meetings of the Working Group are the financial world's equivalent of the war room. The officials gather regularly to discuss options and review crisis scenarios because they know that the government's reaction to a crumbling stock market would have a critical impact on investor confidence around the world.

"The government has a real role to play to make a 1987-style sudden market break less likely. That is an issue we all spent a lot of time thinking about and planning for," said a former government official who attended Working Group meetings. "You go through lots of fire drills and scenarios. You make sure you have thought ahead of time of what kind of information you will need and what you have the legal authority to do."

In the event of a financial crisis, each federal agency with a seat at the table of the Working Group has a confidential plan. At the SEC, for example, the plan is called the "red book" because of the color of its cover. It is officially known as the Executive Directory for Market Contingencies. The major U.S. stock markets have copies of the commission's plan as well as the CFTC's.

Going to Plan A

The red book is intended to make sure that no matter what the time of day, SEC officials can reach their opposite numbers at other agencies of the U.S. government, with foreign governments, at the various stock, bond and commodity futures and options exchanges, as well as executives of the many payment and settlement systems underlying the financial markets.

"We all have everybody's home and weekend numbers," said a former Working Group staff member.

The Working Group's main goal, officials say, would be to keep the markets operating in the event of a sudden, stomach-churning plunge in stock prices -- and to prevent a panicky run on banks, brokerage firms and mutual funds. Officials worry that if investors all tried to head for the exit at the same time, there wouldn't be enough room -- or in financial terms, liquidity -- for them all to get through. In that event, the smoothly running global financial machine would begin to lock up.

This sort of liquidity crisis could imperil even healthy financial institutions that are temporarily short of cash or tradable assets such as U.S. Treasury securities. And worries about the financial strength of a major trader could cascade and cause other players to stop making payments to one another, in which case the system would seize up like an engine without oil. Even a temporary loss of liquidity would intensify financial pressure on already stressed institutions. In the 1987 crash, government officials worked feverishly -- and, ultimately, successfully -- to avoid precisely that bleak scenario.

Officials say they are confident that the conditions that led to the slide a decade ago are not present today. They cite low interest rates and a healthy economy as key differences between now and 1987. Officials also point to SEC-approved "circuit breakers" that were introduced after 1987 to give investors timeouts to calm down.

Under the SEC's rules, a drop of 350 points in the Dow would bring a 30-minute halt in NYSE trading. If the Dow declined another 200 points, trading would cease for one hour. No additional circuit breakers would operate that day, but a new set would apply the next trading day.

Despite these precautions, today's high stock market worries officials such as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who in a speech in early December raised questions about "irrational exuberance" in the markets. Because the market declined following Greenspan's speech, government officials have become even more reluctant to comment on these issues for fear of triggering the very event they wish to forestall, according to policymakers.

A Brewing Concern

Greenspan had expressed similar thoughts a year ago at a confidential meeting of the Working Group. Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin and SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt Jr. also are concerned about the stock market's vulnerability, according to sources familiar with their views.

The four principals of the group -- Rubin, Greenspan, Levitt and CFTC Chairwoman Brooksley Born -- meet every few months, and senior staff get together more often to work on specific agenda items.

In addition to the permanent members, the head of the President's National Economic Council, the chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, the comptroller of the currency and the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank frequently attend Working Group sessions.

The Working Group has studied a variety of possible threats to the financial system that could ensue if stock prices go into free fall. They include: a panicky flight by mutual fund shareholders; chaos in the global payment, settlement and clearance systems; and a breakdown in international coordination among central banks, finance ministries and securities regulators, the sources said.

As chairman of the Working Group, Rubin would have overall responsibility for the U.S. response, but Greenspan probably would be the government's most important player.

"In a crisis, a lot of deference is paid to the Fed," a former member of the Working Group said. "They are the only ones with any money."

"The first and most important question for the central bank is always, `Do you have credit problems?' " said E. Gerald Corrigan, former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and now an executive at Goldman Sachs & Co. "The minute some bank or investment firm says, `Hey, maybe I'm not going to get paid -- maybe I ought to wait before I transfer these securities or make that payment,' then things get tricky. The central bank has to sense that before it happens and take steps to prevent it."

1987: A Case Study

The Fed's reaction to the 1987 market slide, which Corrigan helped oversee, is a case study in how to do it right. The Fed kept the markets going by flooding the banking system with reserves and stating publicly that it was ready to extend loans to important financial institutions, if needed.

The Fed's actions in October 1987 read like a financial war story.

The morning after the 508-point drop on Black Monday, the market began another sickening slide. Corrigan and other Fed officials strongly discouraged New York Stock Exchange Chairman John Phelan from requesting government permission to close the market. Phelan was concerned that if the market continued to erode, the capital of the NYSE member firms would disappear. Corrigan feared a shutdown would cause more panic.

"It was extraordinarily difficult around 11 o'clock," Corrigan recalled. "The market was at one point down another 250 points, and that's when the debate with Phelan took place."

Simultaneously, Corrigan and other central bank officials spoke privately with the big banks and urged them not to call loans they had made to Wall Street houses, which were collateralized by securities that could no longer be traded and whose value was in question.

A final critical moment came that day when the Fed decided not to shut down a subsidiary of the Continental Illinois Bank that was the largest lender to the commodity futures and options trading houses in Chicago. The subsidiary had run out of capital to provide financing to that market.

"Closing it would have drained all the liquidity out of the futures and options markets," said one former top Fed official involved in the decision. Investors use stock futures and options to hedge positions in the underlying stock market.

Recognizing the crucial role of banks if another financial crisis should strike, the Office of the Comptroller recently conducted an internal study of what damage a market decline would inflict on U.S. banks. The OCC declined to discuss the study or its conclusions.

At the SEC, one big worry is how to cope with an international financial crisis that begins abroad but quickly rolls into U.S. markets.

"We worry about a U.S. brokerage firm that is dealing with a Japanese insurance company, where we don't know how they are run or regulated," a SEC source said. To improve its ability to react in a crisis, the SEC and the Fed have begun joint inspections with their British counterparts of U.S. and British financial institutions with global reach.

The most drastic -- and probably unlikely -- move the SEC could take in a crisis would be to propose a market shutdown to the president. That would require a majority vote of the commission. If a quorum couldn't be mustered, the chairman could designate himself "duty officer" and go to the president or his staff.

"Closing the market is, of course, the last thing the commission wants to do," said a source familiar with the SEC's planning. "During a time when people are extremely worried about their investments, you are cutting them off from taking any action. . . . The philosophy of the commission is that markets should stay open."

Just the Facts

Gathering accurate information would be the first order of business for federal regulators.

"Intelligence gathering is critical," Corrigan said. "It depends on the willingness of major market participants to volunteer problems when they see them and to respond honestly to central bank questions."

The SEC, CFTC and Treasury have market surveillance units. They monitor not only the overall markets, but also the cash positions of all the major stock and commodity brokerages and large traders.

The regulators also are hooked into the "hoot-and-holler" system used to notify participants in all financial markets of trading halts. The hoot-and-holler system alerts traders and regulators when a halt is coming.

Relying on Quick Action

In the event of a sharp market decline, the SEC and CFTC would be in constant contact with brokerage and commodity firms to spot early signs of financial failure. If they concluded that a firm was going down, they would try to move customer positions from that firm to solvent institutions.

At least this team of crisis managers already has been through the Wall Street wars. Greenspan was Fed chairman in October 1987. Rubin has served as the co-head of investment bank Goldman Sachs & Co. Levitt has been both a Wall Street executive and president of the American Stock Exchange.

"I think the government is in good shape to handle a crisis," said Scott Pardee, senior adviser to Yamaichi International (America) Inc., a Japanese brokerage subsidiary, and former senior vice president at the New York Fed. "A lot depends on personal relationships. You have a number of seasoned people who have gone through a number of crises. So if something happens, things can be handled quickly on the phone without having to introduce people to each other."

Consider what happened at 11:30 p.m. Dec. 5, when Greenspan made his comments about irrational exuberance. Alton Harvey, head of the SEC's Market Watch unit, was called at home by officials of Globex, a futures trading system owned by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. U.S. stock futures trading in Asia had fallen to their 12-point limit, they said.

Harvey immediately alerted his direct superior as well as his opposite number at the CFTC. More senior SEC and CFTC officials were informed as well. But there wasn't much to be done until the morning. So Harvey went back to sleep.


After the market crashed on Oct. 29, 1929:

* The Federal Reserve provided loans and credit to financial systems.

* President Hoover met with business, labor and farm organizations to encourage capital spending and discourage layoffs; he also promised higher tariffs.

* Federal income taxes were reduced by 1 percent by the end of the year.

After the market dropped 22.6 percent on Oct. 19, 1987, the Federal Reserve:

* Encouraged the New York Stock Exchange to stay open.

* Encouraged big commercial banks not to pull loans to major Wall Street houses.

* Kept open a subsidiary of Continental Illinois Bank that was the largest lender to the commodity trading houses in Chicago.

* Flooded the banking system with money to meet financial obligations.

* Announced it was ready to extend loans to important financial institutions.

What would happen today during a stock drop would depend on the particulars. Here are current guidelines:

* If the Dow Jones industrial average falls 350 points within a trading day, NYSE trading would be halted for 30 minutes.

* If the DJIA falls another 200 points that day, trading would stop for one hour.

* If the market declines more than 550 points in a day, no further restrictions would be applied.

© Copyright 1997 The Washington Post

Cavan ManEquities and Gold#2808904/04/00; 21:34:44

Absurd valuations in US indices may indeed be one of MK's fabeled "Horseman". However, the main event, the case for gold ownership, is best made with a monetary argument.

Whether the market sails onward and upward or crashes and burns, my personal decision to own gold will not be influenced by the outcome in equities. There exists a large world beyond our shores. This world is awash in dollar float. Understand the ramifications of dollar genesis and your decision to own gold will be made easy.

The Euro had to be created out of necessity. Why else (really) would distinctly sovereign nations with historically poor relationships punctuated by many instances of murder and mayhem form such a union? The European continent is a "balkans" of sorts. Have any of the Euro zone countries had a social, economic and political relationship such as exists between the US and Canada for example? I think not. Most recently, there's only been continental peace in Europe for just 55 years running.

As a true, patriotic American although not a veteran, I hope the USD can be saved. I regret to say that my study of the matter and my intuition tells me not.

Solomon WeaverLeigh --- just lurking#2809004/04/00; 21:39:22

I'm still around lurking.....

Just haven't had as much evening time and Earl Grey tea to wax philosophical with.

Been keeping a 1998 silver eagle in my pocket lately as a good luck charm...that is the year that Warren Buffet cornered the market on silver and nobody noticed!!!!

Ciao Bella

VoyagerGoldiehawk#2809104/04/00; 21:47:10

Thank you. And we are constantly told of our free market system.

Coming back to the book The Velosity of Money, this Wall Street thriller delves into much of what was in the article.

Cavan ManTown Crier 28064#2809204/04/00; 21:50:47

"Can you produce either from savings or from your own mind or your own two hands something that the rest of the world demands? If so you will likely be able to meet your needs."


An "average, boring, mid-western guy" like me is really humbled by the wisdom in this thoguht of yours--so very profound. Although I am already alert, it is also a wake up call! I will be putting this one in my personal HOF for quotations if you don't mind. Thank you.

BonedaddyIt's only money!#2809304/04/00; 22:11:20

There was alot of talk on the air waves today about NASDAQ stocks being overvalued. To put it in the modern vernacular I would have to say... DUH! I know it is difficult for those who sit round this table to understand this craziness. I too have struggled with the hows and whys of this most extraordinary phenomenon we call the stock market. I can explain it in only one way. We live in the age of sheep. The age of the wimp. Most peoples minds have been slowly assimilated into the nothingness of the collective unconcious. We all stand idly by while the Felon in Chief rapes, bombs, steals, lies and murders with reckless abandon. We follow the same inane dramas involving little Alien (sp) Gonzales, Jon Benet Ramsey, and dumb@$$ actors and sports figures who have made millions of dollars while distroying their own lives. On balance, Americans are just plain "over pleasured." The sheep grow fat on summer pastures. Go out tomorrow and look around. Listen to the idle chatter on the bus or in the resturant. Everybody's a freaking genius nowadays. I feel like I'm in a bad remake of the Twilight Zone. I can see the danger comming, but can only mouth the words. No one is looking. They're all smug and happy. They're shopping. They're buying stocks. They're all getting rich! Wheeee! But they're forgetting one thing.
He who follows the flock, eventually steps in S#!%.

TheStrangerJust Dropped In To See What Condition My Condition Was In#2809404/04/00; 22:22:40

Thanks for the plug, Leigh. (If you only knew HOW heavy...)

Please forgive me, all, if what I am about to say has already been presented.

February's PCE Deflator was reported at .4% on Friday. This annualizes at 5%, a long way from the nearly universal expectation of continued disinflation which prevailed on Wall Street just one year ago. (The PCE Deflator is the price gauge most concerning the Fed because of its relative freedom from political influence).

Then, yesterday, the National Association of Purchasing Managers reported their monthly prices-paid index at 79.8, up from 74.1 last month. This is the highest reading since February 1995. The report said, "manufacturers continue to pay higher prices as the Index has been above 50 percent for 11 consecutive months, with the last seven months above 60 percent. In March, 58 percent of purchasing executives reported paying higher prices and 4 percent reported paying lower prices."

Here is the list of materials which were in short supply and/or up in price:

In Short Supply
Capacitors; Electronics; Laptop Computers; Memory; and Styrene.

Up in Price
Adhesives; Aluminum - 11th month; Capacitors - 2nd month;
Chemicals; Copper; Corrugated Containers - 13th month; Diesel - 3rd
month; Electronics; Ethylene; Freight; Fuel Oil - 2nd month; Gasoline;
Linerboard; Lubricants; Lumber; Natural Gas - 3rd month; Nickel - 2nd
month; Paper - 10th month; Petroleum Products - 2nd month; Plastics -
5th month; Plastic Resins - 3rd month; Polyester; High Density
Polyethylene; Polyethylene; Polypropylene; Resins - 7th month;
Solvents - 3rd month; Stainless Steel - 8th month; Steel - 8th month;
and Wood Pulp - 3rd month.

This is from today's Wall Street Journal coverage of the story:
"April 4, 2000

[Purchasing managers' business-survey Chairman Mr. Norbert]Ore [said] that higher materials costs and greater demand are both
adding to price pressures, and while the recent slide in oil prices might
alleviate some of the pressure, "the demand-pull side is probably still going
to be there."

The higher prices, combined with the Commerce Department's report
showing that construction spending hasn't faltered in the face of higher
interest rates, may add to fears of looming inflationary pressures among
Federal Reserve policy makers. The Fed has tried to forestall inflation with
a series of interest-rate increases.

Some Forecast Half-Point Rise

The central bank bumped up rates by a quarter of a percentage point in
March and is expected to do so again at its next meeting in May. Some
economists believe that with the economy showing so little response to rate
increases so far, the Fed might raise rates by a half a percentage point next

Stranger's Comment: We have been saying here for many months that prices were headed higher and that Greenspan's quarter-point rate increases would make no difference. For a real eye-opener on just how mistake-prone the Greenspan Fed has been in recent years, check out the cover story by Gene Epstein in this week's "Barron's" entitled "Fortunate Son. Until Now, Greenspan Has Been More Lucky Than Right".

One last item. This morning, Phil Roth, chief technical strategist at Morgan Stanley reminded all who will listen that the government bond market is being influenced by such issues as flight-to-safety and government debt retirement which are all-together different from inflation expectations. Other debt markets such as corporates, munis, and foreign bonds are not yet reflecting the recent rally in govies. In other words, govies are the anomaly here.

JourneymanCabaret @Bonedaddy (04/04/00; 22:11:20MDT - Msg ID:28093)#2809504/04/00; 22:31:40

Have you ever seen the movie, "CABARET"? (Or for that matter, the stage play?)

If you have, enough said. Else it's set before and during the rise of the Fascist Brownshirts in pre-Nazi Germany. There are signs things are not right, but anytime anyone notices, the refrain is "No need to follow these prophets of doom, come to the cabaret." The "cabaret" is a nightclub, a party place.

CABARET's a musical! It's reminded me of modern America for about the last five years. Hope the analogy breaks down before the curtain falls.


FarfelStocks Falling, Bonds Falling, US Dollar Falling = GOLD RUSH#2809604/04/00; 22:40:25

Lamprey, yes, I am well aware of what happened during the Asian crisis. Those collapsing markets forced Koreans, etc. to sell gold to raise liquidity.

The desire to sell gold rested on the perception of American market and currency power. Ultimately, we saw huge Asian capital flight head for the US Dollar via purchases of American bonds and stocks. America was perceived as a safe haven from all the Asian currency and market turmoil.

Various Asian central banks were happy to sell gold in order to raise US Dollars, owing solely to the perception of America as a stable market overseen by a stable government.

However, if the foreigners begin to view American markets as unstable or the US government as unstable, then we are in a different ballgame. Already there is bound to be a perception by certain foreigners of a diminution of American good faith (since Americans retained a perjuring President in power).

Today, the most notable change from 97 is this: the US financial markets are in full bubble mode and US money supply has simply gone through the roof (The recent little 15% drop in NASDAQ and nominal drop in the DOW have changed nothing in those respects).

In fact, various governments (especially Germany) have taken to lecturing Americans lately about the perceived potential instability in American markets and the risk posed to their investments in this country.

What does that mean?

It means that if American markets go into turmoil, this country cannot count on foreign funds inflows to save them this time. America cannot count on foreigners chasing American dollars, since foreigners are awash in them now via excessive US money supply, far outstripping real American GNP.

This time, a US market crisis triggering a US dollar crisis would lead foreign governments to race for something other than US Dollars.

And if a US Dollar crisis triggers global currency unrest as foreign governments are deluged by even more US paper "cashing out" of US markets, then foreign governments faced with whipsawing currencies (owing to an unstable US Dollar) will be compelled to seek a medium of exchange with immutable intrinsic value, an asset vs. a debt.

Essentially, reduced to the most elementary concept, in a world awash in trillions of dollars of forever escalating debt, the monetary reserve that will have the most value will end up being the one in most scarcity, most importantly the one that is an asset and nobody else's debt.

That is why a simultaneous American currency and market crisis signals the beginning of the most astounding gold bull in history.

Are we there yet? Who knows, it's impossible to say? Yet with more days like today then the stability of American markets comes into question. That is not good for the US DOllar since linchpin of its value from foreigners' perspectives is its purported stability.

One more day like this one over the next little while and foreigners will begin to cast their votes.

Lamprey, in that desperate environment, I do not see Central Bank sales of gold, rather instead I see Central Banks desperately calling in their gold loans and Central Bank screams for gold to replace the newly unstable US Dollar reserves.

We are not back in 1997 anymore, we are not back in Kansas now, Lamprey.



Gandalf the WhiteThe changing of the Guard ?#2809704/04/00; 23:04:53

Kuwait--Apr 4--Kuwait has joined fellow OPEC member Saudi Arabia in switching at the start of this month to pricing based on the IPE Brent weighted average (BWAVE) for crude sales to its European customers, a Kuwait Petroleum Corp. source said. The source also said Kuwait Petroleum informed its clients that it was "ready to meet their needs" in line with its 144,000-barrel-per-day output rise under the new OPEC-9 production ceiling. By Inal Ersan, Story .16830

Gandalf the WhiteMo on F * 's thoughts !#2809804/04/00; 23:10:28

HONG KONG, April 5 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's blue chip Hang Seng Index (^HSI - news) fell over three percent just after the open on Wednesday, with technology shares hammered down hard after a sharp sell-off in tech stocks on Wall Street overnight.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index slumped 3.07 percent or 518 points to 16,374.74. It was the first trading day in Hong Kong since U.S. software giant Microsoft Corp (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) rattled U.S. markets on news that talks to settle its landmark antitrust case had failed.

Hong Kong's new high-tech GEM index (^HGEI - news) plummeted 10.56 percent to 690.00 shortly after the open. Financial markets were closed on Tuesday for a public holiday.

Peter AsherBork decries hypocrisy of international law#2809904/05/00; 00:53:42

"I'm not sure why the
Constitution of the United States, which has its own history and understood
meaning, should be affected in any way by what foreign courts have to say
about their constitutions," Bork said.

Black BladeRand link to Gold?#2810004/05/00; 02:21:00

Yesterday the pundits were blaming the near crash in the equities markets on comment by Abby joseph and Mark Mobius. These markets were looking for an excuse to take profits off the table. Last week James Cramer (of suggested that investors do the same. However, last week there were reports that Mark Mobius was in S. Africa, and had made the recommendation to SA leaders that they should consider linking the Rand to Gold. He had also predicted that Tech stocks would crash (cause and effect?). The recommendation would make sense for SA, and would provide an alternative currency linked to gold, especially since the Swiss have abandoned the Francs link to gold. If SA were able to do this, reform their banking industry, and get crime under control, then perhaps SA would rise to be a safe haven as Switzerland once was. This would attract substantial investment perhaps. Just a late night thought anyway.
OROPPT - a couple of points.#2810104/05/00; 04:25:31

The details have been put forward before in earlier posts. Goldiehawk's WP article post is the best piece put to the public.

The bulk of the action is by the bankers themselves doing Nick Leeson like market moving actions. When the market moves against them they just out and buy futures and options and borrow the credit from each other in order to post margin when the action was not sufficiently effective. If action was effective, they will not need to post margin and have "theoretically" moved the market at no cost (to themselves).

The main trouble is having to borrow in order to post margin. That is a problem because the loan (the asset) creates a liability (a large one - the checking account money) that may not be balanced by transfers of liabilities of other banks. If there is an imbalance, the lending bank needs to cover by selling assets. If a bank needs to sell assets - then it is in trouble - just like anyone else facing a margin call. At this point, they call on the ESF and the Fed.

The ESF intervenes directly only when there is need to post margin beyond the ability of the bankers to shell out, or the collective bank stomach for risk taking for the manipulation is lacking - meaning that they are faced with selling of treasuries and mortgages in order to settle funds if they need to post margin. The ESF can act as the equivalent of $500 billion when converted into arbitraged stock positions.

The Fed's buying for the BOJ was the equivalent of a coupon pass that allowed banks to sell treasuries without hammering the price. The sales allowed them to continue buying after the initial buying at 11:40-12:00, 12:35-12:50 were too heavilly sold into and some panicked and sold back in the 12:50-13:00 period.

Even when the cap was put on the gold markets at the 13:00 coordinated intervention, panic selling from participants in previous support action (which failed) continued and if there was direct intervention by the ESF it was then. By 13:20 the selling was overcome and the intervention was in full force, turning into a stampede of the shorts. The money flow seems to indicate a net sell in the period immediately after intervention, and a net 0 buying from 14:00 till just before close.

Mr GreshamAfrica#2810204/05/00; 04:26:34

Black Blade --

I was just showing my 4-year-old daughter my photo collection from a month's visit to Africa in 1978. Lots of children in out of the way villages, smiling and posing for my camera, wanting to play with me and my fellow (often stranded) travelers.

My thoughts today: The world's most gentle people. The world's most patient people. To have endured so much. WRITTEN OFF BY THE REST OF HUMANITY. True, no?

For contrarians like us, wouldn't you want to bet that these are the people most overdue for something good to happen to them? (At this point, what have they got to lose trying Mobius' suggestion?)

To have produced a Mandela and de Klerk together in a land of gold... I wouldn't put it past them to show the world a thing or three about real money.

OROVENGF#2810304/05/00; 04:32:35

Raised $39 M, Had $11 M
Owes $12 M
54 million shares in Lihir $23 million.
Had $100 M of exploration properties (book value), which they had just written off

Had 140 M Shares out

When I bought them at 1/8 to 1/4 they were selling at 1/2 of the value of their Lihir shares and 1/4 of the value of their share of PP deposits at Lihir based on the $300 gold minimum that I expected to see for average selling price in Q3 1999 to Q2 2000. Had their mining properties had any findings they would have provided an additional boost.

It was like buying perpetual Lihir call options

When they declared the itemus conversion they had taken in Tobin and were collecting a B class staff of internet startup specialists with good connections. Since these types of companies were trading at some 20 times book, I found that holding the stock, by then up 2 fold, to be a good idea. Had they remained a gold company at the expected gold price range they would still be worth $0.7-0.9 by my take, and as an internet investment fund they would be worth 5-10 times book, or better. So their full potential at their former book value was between 5 * $30 / 140 to 10 * $30 /140 - or $1 to $2 - say $1.50 if they did not raise fresh funds. With fresh funds - as announced in Feb - they were worth about double that, say $3 +/- $1 so long as internet incubators were selling at the 10-20 times book range.

Vengold purchases - in 2 months:
Intrasoft Technologies, Corp,
I am clueless about these, and have only a nominal position left in the stock - so I will track these developments lightly and through the technical behavior of the stock.

Because of the level of volatility, I do not buy net junk above 1/2 of my minimum expected target, and don't go in unless there is potential for a quadruple - That means that I have not held any internets since the beginning of 1999 and stopped looking for ops in that arena in July 1999. Missed out on alot, but did ok with gold stocks.

Finally, I reccomend that no one do what I do, and not try to shadow these moves - and I don't consider Vengold ne itemus a good investment at these levels. I just put this up to show a way of thinking - since we have talked of this company often.


Sold 1/2 my short fund, intend to expand position if NDX does well and then slows, sell the rest (for now) at a close of about 3500-3600 on the Nasdaq.

Mr GreshamPPT nightowls?#2810404/05/00; 04:33:55

Oro --

Are you up shadowing the PPT tonight? Think they're in some NY or Washington hotel suite planning tomorrow's actions? That's what they did in 1987.

Are the banks that illiquid? Isn't enough of their capital available to stake their positions, so that borrowing short-term is not a factor? I would think so, anyway.

I read Mr. Moto on, and now on, with the money supply adds (like Townie does here), often seeming to show up in the day's stock actions. It's just hard to believe that everything is so often on such a tight edge for organizations that have profited so mightily throughout the 90s and must have some improved capital positions (at least on paper) compared, say, to 1990, or other crisis times.

What say?

Black BladeMr. Gresham and SA#2810504/05/00; 04:49:52

Indeed, SA with so much potential. Hopefully they will take Mark Mobius's advice. Such a move would bring much desired stability and strengthen the gains made so far during this continuing transition from the aparteid era.
LelandA Great Article on the Mentality of Yesterday's Investors#2810604/05/00; 05:04:26

It was a day to lose fortunes --and a day to make

Experienced day traders made tens -- even hundreds
-- of thousands of dollars in the stock market's wild
ride yesterday.

But novice day traders got hammered.

"For some, it was a day of huge opportunism. For
others it was their worst nightmare," said David
Nasser, chairman of Market Wise Securities, a
day-trading firm based in Denver.

"There was very little in between. You were either on
one end or the other."

Nasser, whose firm has seven offices and 1,000
traders nationwide, said one trader in the Denver office
made $150,000.

On the other hand, a less experienced trader lost
$80,000 -- and the company shut down his account.

"Lots of people got bruised up pretty badly," Nasser

"People were sucked in Monday. They bought
Microsoft on its lows expecting it would go no further.
When it went down even more, they were burned up
pretty badly."

For one New York day trader who made tens of
thousands, "it was possibly the best day I've ever seen
-- and that's what every trader would say."

It was a good day also for David Floyd, a partner in, a small San Diego day-trading

"It was one of the most volatile days I've seen," he said.
"On the other hand, it produced some of the best
trading I've ever seen. It was one of the top five days
I've traded."

Floyd said he made a profit of $7,000 but only traded
half a day.

But three of the nine other traders in the office made

"That's exceptionally good," he said.

Investors who buy and sell stocks online were active,
too. Securities, a discount brokerage for
novice investors, said 10 times as many investors
bought stocks as sold them yesterday.

Nasser said there was so much chaos in the market
that those who stayed on the sidelines were smart.

David Schwerdt, 37, a Los Angeles banker visiting the
Big Apple on business, was one of them. "I held on to
everything. You don't want to panic. There's so much
money in the market, it has to go up," he said.

John Carroll, a brokerage executive, was one of the

"In the long term, can you go home tonight and sleep
when your portfolio goes down $100,000 in a day, as
mine did? I can because I believe in the companies I
own," he said.

[Thanks to the NEW YORK POST, Fair Use for Educational/
Research Purposes Only]

Black BladeCRASH IMMINENT!!!!!#2810704/05/00; 05:10:34

Looks like a very nasty opening this morning as the Wall Street crash continues. S&P Futures are down -19.50, that's -8.38 below fair value. Overnight, Xetra-DAX is off -3.84%, and CAC-40 off -4.54%. Menwhile gold off -$0.90, Silver off -$0.02, Pt up +$3.00, and Pd off -$9.00. Looks like a continuation of yesterday. Only question to be answered - Will the indices recover as well as yesterday, or is this the day that Wall Street quakes and crumbles? I would not walk on the sidewalks along Wall Street today - Brokers don't bounce!
Black BladeOh yeah, this is good!#2810804/05/00; 05:32:04

London Market is down, but guess what? There was a "convenient systems failure". Uh-huh! One market-maker says it's "fortuitous" (wink wink). It looks uglier by the minute!
Mr GreshamBlack Blade #28108#2810904/05/00; 05:52:38

Applying the term "circuit breakers" literally, wot?
Mr GreshamA Day at the Paper Races#2811004/05/00; 06:49:16

John G at bearforum has posted this astute analysis of what happened yesterday in markets. What hits me is (1) the difficulty of hitting your trades in a volatile market, (2) TPTB throwing the public's unknowing money against you, and (3)the time and stress involved in trying to cash in on the inevitable bubble-popping.

And all this is without general market lockup/meltdown, where nobody's winning trades are safe in certainty of payment.

Although I've waited since 1987 for moments like this, it now seems out of reach, and FOA's counsel applies to all markets at this stage of the mania. Get physical!


1. Let's talk about unnatural acts tonight.

2. The NDX was clearly in crash mode this morning after 10:10 Eastern. We had a picture perfect 5 wave elliot structure down to 3525 with the NDX down about 13% on the day. Volume had been running at an all time record pace all morning during the sell off. Near the bottom, the NDX contract was lock limit down, and as my intraday "extreme" indicators were flashing "buy" I saw the market start up. Frantically, I log on to Schwab to grab a batch of QQQ long (since the contracts are lock limit), but the system is so slow that 75 points go by just logging in. By the time I am logged and ready to place the order we are up over a hundred points. Now normally when the market craters 500 points in a morning you expect a rebound of 100 to 150 points, but you expect that there are reasons for the selling and that those reasons will not suddenly disappear. Thus, while you expect a rebound of 100 to 150 points, you do not expect a 500 point rebound. So I refuse to chase the QQQ. In the meantime, the NDX contract reopens and is suddenly 75 points above fair value, a whopping 120 points above the cash.

3. After the bounce, you naturally expect a retest of the lows. So whenever "THEY" bid the premium to more than 100 points above fair value, small traders take an extended lunch break. After all, if the advance merely slows, the premium will flip to negative and you have just lost 100 points - or $10,000 on the big contract, or $2000 on the mini. It is one hell of a poor bet. So like the other traders, I sit back and watch for an opportunity to sell that premium. But of course you are in the chamber of horrors. Anyone who bids the future up 100 points above fair value is not motivated by normal trading economics. It is nearly impossible to trade from that position and make money. Under ordinary circumstances the boys will fade the premium so that it falls to a discount before you reach the highs. Not this gorilla! Indeed, at the twin peaks, at 2:40 and 3:45 the premium was 100 points above fair value. This gorrilla wants to wear those contracts!

4. So what is this 800 pound gorrilla trying to accomplish? The short answer is that he is thumping his chest and announcing to the world that the market is going much higher. Whether you like it or not! Now why on earth would the future be used for such a garrish display of market power? Simple - it is a stalking horse for some other freight that is much larger and much more important. Could the Fed. be behind it? Absolutely not. The Fed is far to vulnerable politically to do this sort of thing. Could it be the the Treasury's exchange stabilization fund. Possibly! That fund, numbering in the tens of billions is at Summer's discretion, with no audits and no accountability to Congress. By law, nobody will know.

5. So as the 800 pound gorrilla's premium fades a touch, you begin squirm in your seat, wondering just who it is, and more important, just how crazed it is. You wonder whether he has the bucks and cahones to jam the cash as well and keep the premium up there for the next 100 cash points? The gorilla wants you to freeze in your tracks and you do. You can always trade tomorrow when the beast cools down and risk descends to more typical levels.

6. But say what you like about the implausibility of making money buying futures the way the Gorilla bought them today, he has market history on his side. Volume was huge on the way down this morning, hitting 1.7 billions by 12:30. It is climactic selling action. Further, the VIX has risen to 35.44, also a climactic level and a reversal signal by the standards of the past 12 months. Adv/Dcl volume and breadth are at climactic negative levels. And the 8 day stochasic oscillator is also flashing a buy signal. The accumulation/distribution indicator flashes accumulation over the past three days, and the Chaikin oscillator is rising. We have exactly the same chart patterns we have had on every other NDX bottom over the past few years. Finally, we do have those beginning of month inflows that can be put to work. So what's an 800 pound gorrilla to do, except his patriotic duty to run the market when its time?

7. There are some signs that the gorrilla might have a short ride on his hands. First and foremost, the rally today did nothing to change the NDX RS line. The boys at Janus have to be disappointed to see their horse come in second at the very point in this rally when momentum is at its highest. The declining NDX RS will ultimately crater this market. Today did nothing to alleviate that condition.

8. Second problem is the terrible NAZ breadth, up/down volume and new high/ new low trends which are still accellerating to the downside. We need to see some pretty good positive breadth tomorrow, or this market is toast. I expect tomorrow to be flat to up on the day. The S&P is a safer bet for an up close than the NDX. We have another two days under the umbrella of the "beginning of month effect", and then the wild cards including the size of the tax selling (which I believe will be huge), and the effect of the recent volatility on inflows. Keep your eye on the 11:00 o'clock hour.

9. Other than the NDX relative strength horror show, which primarily affects investment professionals, the mania among individual investors is basically quite healthy. For example, the ratio of call open interest to put open interest (all contracts, all exchanges including index contracts) has been falling steadily since 03/06, meaning that "investors" are holding more calls relative to puts. There is not a shred of fear or concern showing up in the options market. Thus, we cannot be surprised if the addicted reach ever deeper into those wallets and credit lines to fuel rallies. The difference is that they now lack staying power - endurance for the long pull. "

Harley DavidsonA combination of horsemen???#2811104/05/00; 06:50:12

According to this article, it may be a one-two punch (stock market and trade deficit) that leads to the dollar's demise.

Dollar's nemesis seen looming after stock gyrations
By Swaha Pattanaik

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - The yawning U.S. current account deficit will haunt the dollar as heart-stopping lurches in U.S. stocks trigger fears that foreign money could stop pouring into the country, analysts said on Wednesday.

Stellar growth, a bull run in stocks, rising short-term interest rates, and big direct investment inflows saw the United States pull in more than enough foreign money to finance a record current account deficit of nearly $339 billion in 1999.

But such a trick will be hard to pull off if foreigners give the United States a clear berth after Tuesday, when the technology-laden U.S. Nasdaq composite slumped more than 13 percent at one point before bouncing most of the way back.

It doesn't even need foreigners to pull money out of the United States for the dollar to suffer -- with the U.S. current account deficit seen widening this year and next, all it would take is for foreign inflows to stay at their current levels.

``The U.S. already needs to attract $35 million an hour to finance its current account deficit and as the deficit grows, it will need even more money for the dollar just to stay still,'' said Nick Parsons, currency strategist at Commerzbank in London.

``The moves in the U.S. stock market will therefore be a double hit for the dollar -- they will not only dent consumer confidence but they will make it hard for the U.S. to attract the capital it needs.''


No one can say financial markets have not been warned about the sword of Damocles which has long been hanging over the dollar.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough said as recently as last week that no one could predict how long foreigners would be willing to finance excess U.S. demand.

He added that the current account deficit had to shrink to around two percent of national income to be sustainable.

The deficit has already hit 3.8 percent of gross domestic product. It is expected by the International Monetary Fund to widen to 4.3 percent this year according to confidential figures obtained by Reuters on Monday.

Traders are likely to pay more attention to warnings about the risks to the dollar now that wild swings are becoming a daily event in the Nasdaq.

``The fact that equity volatility is through the roof should dampen foreign investors appetite to buy dollar assets,'' said Alfonso Prat-Gay, global head of foreign exchange strategy at J.P. Morgan in London.

Prat-Gay said the bank's risk aversion index had climbed close to the pre-Y2K peaks hit last year, with the speed of its climb beginning to resemble the rise seen during emerging markets crises in the past few years.

The key beneficiaries would be the yen and the Swiss franc, and maybe even the euro, he said.

The Swiss franc has been quick to profit, hitting one-month highs against the dollar in the past 24 hours.

The euro has been tardier to take benefit given its poor track record of sustaining rallies. But this could change given the foreign exchanges' notoriously short memory, analysts said.

``When you have such huge volatility are international funds really going to keep putting money into the U.S. given they are already overweight?'' said Lee Ferridge, head of global currency strategy at Rabobank in London.

``The U.S. actually needs to attract more money if it is to finance its current account deficit so the numbers just don't add up. Sentiment does not last forever and will shift quickly once this becomes clear.''

Hill Billy MitchellOfficial Release#281124/5/2000; 8:35:59

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 4, 2000

Rates for Friday, April 3, 2000

Federal funds 6.15

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.87
10-year 6.00
20-year 6.19
30-year 5.84

Chris PowellPlunge Protection Team at work?#281134/5/2000; 8:36:46

John Crudele writes about it in
the New York Post.

Hill Billy MitchellCorrection on date for rates#281144/5/2000; 8:39:32


Rates were for Monday April 3, 2000, rather than for Friday April 3, 2000

Cavan ManChris Powell 28113#281154/5/2000; 9:13:52

I disagree with Crudele. It may be politically the right thing to do but not "socially" (unless you mean socialism) the right thing to do.

That our equity markets absolutely cannot fail is extremely frightening. That we've allowed ourselves to get to this point of unsustainable growth is pure stupidity. In this condition, the markets will definitely fail and fail big at some future point in time.

If this isn't a wake up call to buy PM I don't know what is. Leave equities to the gamblers. Wait for everyone to get cleaned out and then step back in.

If your investment advisor has not "advised" you to exit the US equity market by now I would be looking for some freash perspective on what most certainly is a very dangerous situation.

Dr. JonesCavan Man - Personal HOF#281164/5/2000; 9:34:45

I, too, am a humble midwesterner, mostly lurking behind the scenes - and will be adding TC's words of wisdom from msg 28064 to my personal HOF.

I also echo your comments in msg 28089 regarding dollar genesis. Forget stock market gyrations. The case for gold ownership is made by looking beyond our borders.

This is summed up most eloquently by FOA in his poignant essays in the "Gold Trail" page. For those of you who haven't "walked the trail yet," you're missing out on the core reason for owning gold. Strap on your boots, touch the "Gold Trail" button at the top of the page, and enjoy.

USAGOLDToday's Report: Politically Correct Intervention or Market Rigging?#281174/5/2000; 9:53:49

4/5/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/5/00): Gold gave up a little of yesterday's strong gains
in early trading as the markets seemed to calm down a bit this morning. As
soon as the stock market cratered yesterday, gold shot up re-establising an
old inverse relationship.

John Crudele, who writes with remarkable skill about financial matters for
the New York Post, published one of the most interesting and revealing
reports on yesterday's action. In it, he says:

Begin quote

"SOMETHING happened at around 1 p.m. our time yesterday that pulled the stock
market back from the edge of the cliff. Traders say it was almost like divine
intervention. One minute the Nasdaq was down 11 percent -- say it out loud,
"Eleven percent in one day" -- and then it suddenly rallied several hundred
points in the matter of an hour.

The Dow followed suit. Down 500 points around mid-day, the blue chip index's
decline -- along with the horrible showing of over-the-counter stocks -- was
destined to make yesterday's market an unqualified disaster for investors and
the country.

Then, traders said, someone started buying large amounts of stock index
futures contracts through two major brokerage firms -- Goldman Sachs and
Merrill Lynch. These transactions are usually done on the QT so we don't
really know how many of these contracts were purchased.

And unless the brokers tell, there is no way of knowing which of their
clients were making the purchases. Goldman wouldn't comment on this and
Merrill did not return a call for comment.

But traders said enough were bought to catch everyone's attention. In fact,
the buyers seemed to want people to know they had an appetite for stocks.

Then the market rebounded.

It didn't go all the way back. At the end of the day the Dow Jones index had
still lost lost 56 points or half a percent on the day. And the Nasdaq lost
another 74 points, or the equivalent of a 1.77 percent drop. Yesterday's loss
by over-the-counter stocks nearly put the Nasdaq index back to ground zero
for the year -- in two days all but 2 percent of its gain for the year was

It was real nice of Goldman and Merrill to stick their necks out like that.
In fact, it was downright uncharacteristic for Wall Street outfits to put the
thought of possible losses aside for the greater good.

Because of the purely unselfish nature of what went on, traders are naturally
suspicious. Hell, so am I.

"I think some one or more persons saved the market today. There was a
suspicious urge to buy stocks at an opportune time," says one trader. "Why
drive the Dow up 350 points in a half hour? That's never serious buying.
That's someone trying to establish prices," he adds.

I'm especially suspicious when the market suddenly rebounds at nearly the
very same moment that a member of the Clinton administration -- economic
advisor Gene Sperling -- is on TV telling investors not to worry.

And there's the obvious connection between Goldman Sachs and the
administration, the Wall Street firm having given Robert Rubin to the Clinton
administration as its Treasury Secretary.

Plus, what better way to make investors not worry than by having the stock
market recover a lot of the ground it had just lost. That gesture almost
makes a guy want to buy some stock -- bottom fish, if you are into sporting

I'm not saying that government intervention in a collapsing market is wrong.
In fact -- except for the obvious contradictions with the free-market system
-- it is politically and socially a very right thing to do.

I've written about this before. And I've mentioned that Washington has had a
secretive group call the Working Group on Financial Markets, made up of
investment industry and government people, that would be in just the right
position to rescue the market.

Informally the folks on Wall Street call this the "Plunge Protection Team."
In February 1997, the Washington Post did a piece on this team, just in case
you don't believe it exists.

And while I can't swear that Goldman and Merrill are captains of that team,
they sure acted like it yesterday."

End quote.

Those of you who frequent this report are familiar with the shenanigans of
Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs et al. I would point out to Mr. Crudele that
though market rigging might be politically correct in an election year,if you
or I were to do it, we would find ourselves pleading our case before a court
of law. Why are Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch permitted to do it with
impunity? And not only permitted to do it with impunity, but encouraged and
sanctioned by the very same government that is supposed to be regulating such
activiy. Nick Leeson went to jail for that sort of thing. These laws about
market manipulation have their roots in previous altercations which ended up
in social and economic disaster and that's why they were put into place --
the very socio-economic disasters you believe they may avoid.

This all leads to one last point worth mentioning: While we look at this
rigging situation with respect to the stock market, perhaps we should examine
whether or not these same forces have been encouraged and sanctioned to the
same thing in the gold market -- only in this case to hold the price down.

Let me say that there are consequences in attempting to establish the
socialist promise of heaven on earth not the least of which is the abrogation
of the self-cleansing effect of free markets. What is most troublesome here
is that someone of Alan Greenspan's stature -- a student of the greatest free
marketeer of the century, Ayn Rand and one who constantly invokes the mantra
of free and fair markets -- would sit back and allow this to happen. Frankly,
it scares me and makes me wonder what's really going in the Beltway and on
Wall Street.

I am sure there will be great deal of comment about what happened yesterday
even as we go into a new trading session today. What investors should not
believe is what the newspapers trumpeted around the country this morning:
That somehow investors saved this market yesterday starting at 1 pm. Nothing
could be further from the truth. It was saved by a quasi-governmental
intrusion through two select brokerage firms.

The obvious question every investor should be asking himself or herself is
the most pressing one: Why does the government feel it has to save the stock
market in the first place? What is the problem with letting a market
naturally correct itself? Even experienced Wall Streeters believe corrections
to be a good thing. Why has that changed? What has happened in the financial
system that makes it necessary?

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click here ---> ORDER FORM <--- and make the appropriate entries.

PhosPost from Vulture#281184/5/2000; 9:55:47

Excellent comment from Vulture at Kitco on US dollar:
Date: Wed Apr 05 2000 11:40
Vulture (The US$-Index Again ) ID#428270:
Copyright © 2000 Vulture/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Before arguing with the following, I urge you to read my related "Weekly Outlook" comment posted here last Monday.

Again, I will never hammer this enough, whether it is the PPT or any other collusion crowd aiming at preventing any sort of financial meltdown, the real issue is and will always be the external value of the US$. Any intervention in the mkt serves one and only one purpose: to prevent foreign money from exiting the US. Last Monday, I did mention the important 104.80 - 106.60 June basis trading range, and that any daily close below 104.80 would precipitate an important decline in the US$.

The US$-Index is your KEY indicator of future events to unfold: the fate of the stock mkt and the destiny of gold. Should it falter, it would mean that the authorities have given up on "crash protection". This is your ONLY reliable indicator that gold will be set for a major surge. Should it remain rangebound or head higher, that means the Fed and its cohorts are pouring everything they have ( mostly paper money which they liberally print ) in order to coax foreigners into staying invested in the Nasdaq,
Dow, Treasuries...

What you have to understand here is that the so-called US economic boom is/was entirely due to foreign money financing the huge ( $25 bln monthly ) trade deficit. Should foreigners "disinvest" out of the US and repatriate their dollars home ( sell these US$ for their respective currencies ) , the US garden of Eden will turn into a House of Pain, especially for Americans.

Again, I urge you to closely monitor the 104.80 level on a daily close. We were so close to sleeping below it yesterday, yet, magically, stock mkts rallied and the US$-Index managed to close above that key level at 104.85. This morning, it got even worse during european hours, traded down to 104.40, yet it has amazingly rallied and is trading back at 104.80 now.

I believe no one has any interest in breaking the range at the present time. The Fed is keen on keeping foreign money in, for obvious reasons, and perhaps also because US banks are not yet done scooping up cheap gold as a hedge against the ever increasing likelihood of future US$ devaluation. The European Central Bank knows it has more than $200 bln in unneeded reserves but fears that selling these US$ might precipitate the collapse of the financial system, obviously a prospect no one is yet ready to face.

This farce is reaching a climax, no one can predict when it will end. As for me, I am just suggesting you keep an eye on a pattern that should be a trigger for what we're all so eagerly expecting and is thus far failing to happen. When the US$ goes down the drain, gold will shoot for the moon. It always has and always will.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)@Mr Gresham - Africa#281194/5/2000; 9:56:12

Africa, the descendents of Ham, The Cushites.

Cush = A people that praise The Lord.

In the last days, these people, written off by everybody, will surely Praise The Lord, and miracles will be performed in that continent.

Cavan ManUSAGOLD#281204/5/2000; 10:03:28

MK-Thanks for stating eloquently and analytically what I could not. I have NEVER thought a severe economic contraction (recession/depression) was likely until yesterday. I have NEVER thought a possible depression or anything the likes of Mr. Batra's prognostications likely. Now, I do. I guess I am just waking up to this whole PPT thing. I have thought all along it was just "right wing venom" :)(big smiley face).

Buy gold today.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Taking the battle to the enemy.#281214/5/2000; 10:14:49

. Date: Wed Apr 05 2000 10:56
sharefin (From the far side) ID#284255:
- A modest proposal

First for you conspiracy buffs: All day yesterday, the Netscape business tab which usually shows index quotes when you open the home page was jambed on the opening values. You had to punch in the symbols to get a reading. No use frightening the sheep.

And now for my prayer: I need as much help as you all can give on this, because we have to reach a maximum number of people.

If your hierarchy begins with and end to a manipulated market, I have a proposal, perhaps not modest, but I think achievable. I assume that going head to head with Goldman Sachs and the Fed is in the realm of a death or glory charge. Read 'Do we have much of a chance?' It has been noted that officials will tell any lie and commit any crime necessary to ensure the continuation of their policies, no matter how mistaken, and this could drag on for years. As has been mentioned by Greenspan, so long as central banks are willing to lease gold to keep the price down, gold will remain cheap. They have more time, more money, and more gold than we do. Also, I dislike the thought of leaving the manipulators to continue
their work, knowing that, at the moment either of their choosing or when they see the handwriting on the wall, they ( especially Goldman Sachs ) will acquire all the free gold available and masses of paper gold at the cheapest possible price in order to cover their own positions, and make massive profits on the upside, even as they profitted by beating the price down previously. It has been suggested that in the event of an actual market crash, they will be able to cover their positions from distress sales by smaller players.
My proposal is to carry the battle to the enemy, but not in a frontal attack. I suggest that the key to unlocking the gold market is not gold, nor is it buying gold shares, nor waiting and hoping to pick up a few oats that the horse misses. I suggest that the key to the gold market - its achilles heal - is its link to silver. Assuming that the estimates I have seen are correct as to the rapid drawing down of reserves of silver, and remembering what happened to the gold price when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, I suggest a consortium, not of the giants, but of us all. We must remove from the market in excess of one hundred million ounces of silver bullion. Bullion, not coins or jewelry, for with the latter, we cannot be sure how large the pool, or how many will cheerfully sell at the possibility of a small gain. In short, one million buyers...of one hundred ounces of silver bullion each ( more for they who can or will ) .
Delivered. Unhedgeable. Unloanable. Unmanipulated. The quantity is small enough to fit inside a safe deposit box, the expenditure reasonable at current market prices, and let the shorts hold the price down as long as they can, for it will only rebound the harder on them. At some stage, Mr. Buffett will have to exercise his fiduciary trust to his shareholders and call in his leased silver or risk losing it. And better now, than when the world stocks are totally exhausted.
I myself, and my brother are buying one thousand ounces of bullion each. Yes, I could buy more of those 4 cent options for March 2001 $9 silver. Yes, certain securities would probably give a much greater return. And yes,eighty-five pounds of silver bars holding open the door or serving as a marking post for the dog is more than a bit of a nuisance. ( I think it would break the safe deposit box, and how to carry the thing ) . If your desire is actually to free the precious metals market from the hands of the few, help us. Talk to every precious metal internet site, forum, friend, and founder. Try to reach shareholders of precious metal company shares - what a way to enhance the share value. Pass this on, Buy some yourself, pay cash, and don't give your name if you fear government confiscation of bullion. Americans can buy it in Canada, ( perhaps in Mexico also? Not my field of expertese ) if they're really scared. Talk it up. Put the fear of god into the shorts. Have people report in as they buy, and keep running totals of how much has been taken out of the market.


FarfelMoral Hazard in the Clinton Government's Stock Market...#281224/5/2000; 10:38:49

The following statement says it all:

David Schwerdt, 37, a Los Angeles banker visiting the
Big Apple on business, was one of them. "I held on to
everything. You don't want to panic. There's so much
money in the market, it has to go up," he said.

Thanks to Robbin Robert Rubin's efforts in concert with Mr. Greedspan, the American investor is entirely fearless and entirely certain his government will prevent him from losing a significant dime in the stock market. Let me repeat Mr. Schwerdt's most notable statement for consideration: "THERE IS SO MUCH MONEY IN THE MARKET IT HAS TO GO UP."

In other words, the American investor no longer believes in a free market but is absolutely convinced it is rigged by the government for his benefit and perpetual enrichment.

Who ever said that communism died when Russia's Yeltsin Era began? It is now alive and thriving here in America, courtesy of the Clinton government and its Wall Street owners.

Of course, like the Old Russian communism, a rigged market ultimately sows the seeds of its own doom, since trees cannot grow to the sky.

First, as a society gets richer and richer primarily via stock market speculation (as opposed to real goods production), then inflation is the inevitable result. A government can manipulate the CPI or PPI forever but real inflation eventually slaps everyone in the face.

Secondly, a society that grows significantly wealthier at the expense of its foreign neighbors will eventually breed great resentment. America's escalating wealth as a consequence of hedge fund currency raids in South East Asia, Latin America, Russia, the various currency (Japan, Canada, Australia, etc.) and commodity (gold and silver) carry trades inevitably creates resentment by those countries afflicted by such financial terrorism. No doubt it raises the likelihood of retaliation against America, in some form or another.



schippiHourly Select Gold Chart#281234/5/2000; 11:02:59

Select Gold moving Up!
TownCrierLatest update of The Week in Gold--Weekly Market Commentary by the WGC#281244/5/2000; 11:06:06

Click above for your convenience, otherwise, find the link throughout the week on the USAGOLD HomePage and on MK's Daily Market Report page.

An excerpt:
>>>>>>>>...the National Bank of Austria announced that, as part of the Washington Agreement on Gold, it had sold 30 tonnes of gold during 1999 and that it intended to sell up to another 60 tonnes before the Agreement expires in September 2004. The sales have been made on a forward basis via the Bank for International Settlements and will not become visible in the consolidated weekly report of the Eurosystem until the relevant delivery dates. The amount still to be sold will include sales to the Austrian Mint for the production of the gold Philharmoniker coin, which over the past decade has consumed an average 13.5 tonnes per annum. This announcement has had no apparent impact on prices, being seen as part of the Agreement and also filling the last gap in the intended sale of 2,000 tonnes over five years.

TownCrierFed adds $2.49 billion with overnights#2812504/05/00; 11:17:20

Here is a summary of the current score, offered by Dana Saporta (economist with Stone and McCarthy Research Associates) as quoted by Reuters:
"The Fed already has over $19.0 billion in long-term rps outstanding and has purchased $1.55 billion in coupons during this two-week bank reserve maintenance period that ends today."

Saporta calculated that banking system reserves needed a final add of $2.2 billion.

The Fed was up to the task, adding $2.49 billion in temporary reserves through overnight repurchase agreements.

CoBra(too)"The President's Financial Markets Working Group, dubbed PPT" #2812604/05/00; 11:21:05

are sure as hell working overtime. I agree with John Crudele, MK's and F*s comments, though it is becoming so transparent, that I would consider it becoming counterproductive, eventually.
Even the ESF should have run out of money by now, so the only solution is the printing press, which will start to drive away foreign investors in droves with the first signs of softening of the $, after all the Egyptians of old already knew you can't build lasting pyramids upside-down.

While the history of the ESF has been mostly secretive, small wonder here, the PPT was openly constituted during the 87 crash, G-spans utterances were oil on the fire of the bubblesters towards the ultimate belief, that "US Investors"
will forever be immune to bear markets. A tall tale with a tall bill, which the man with the same name, probably won't have to pay personally, to the detriment of the rest of the world and eventually to the detriment of the US.
Real money - get you some - BTW, FOA your latest trail
hike was most descriptive, concise and I would say brilliant - thank you.
Regards and good luck CB2

Cavan ManTo Forum#2812704/05/00; 11:34:10

Could this alleged PPT intervention be computerized buying?
TownCrierToday's Remarks by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan for the "White House Conference on the New Economy"#2812804/05/00; 12:12:30


"It has become increasingly difficult to deny that something profoundly different from the typical postwar business cycle has emerged in recent years. Not only has the expansion reached record length, but it has done so with far stronger-than-expected economic growth. Most remarkably, inflation has remained subdued in the face of labor markets tighter than any we have experienced in a generation."

"The first sign of the shift was the sharp rise in capital investment orders, especially for high-tech equipment, in 1993. This was unusual for a cyclical expansion because it occurred a full two years after the trough of the 1991 recession.
By 1995, the investment boom had gathered momentum, suggesting that earlier expectations of elevated profitability had not been disappointed. In that year, with inflation falling, domestic operating profit margins started to rise, indicating that increases in unit costs were slowing. These developments signaled that productivity growth was probably beginning to move higher, even though official data, hobbled by statistical problems, failed to provide any confirmation. Now, five years later, there can be little doubt that not only has productivity growth picked up from its rather tepid pace during the preceding quarter century but that the growth rate has continued to rise, with scant evidence that it is about to crest."

[TownCrier Note: expect Fed rate hikes to continue as needed. Oh, wait...he covers that next]

"As our experience over the past century and more attests, such surges in prospective investment profitability carry with them consequences for interest rates, which ultimately are part of the process that balances saving and investment in a noninflationary economy. In these circumstances, rising credit demand is almost always reflected in an increase in corporate borrowing costs and that has, indeed, been our recent experience, especially in longer-dated debt issues. Real interest rates on corporate bonds have risen more than a percentage point in the past couple of years. Home mortgage rates have risen comparably. The Federal Reserve has responded in a similar manner, by gradually raising the federal funds rate over the past year. Certainly, to have done otherwise--to have held the federal funds rate at last year=s level even as credit demands and market interest rates rose--would have required an inappropriately inflationary expansion of liquidity. It is difficult to imagine product price levels remaining tame over the longer haul had there been such an expansion of liquidity. In the event, of course, inflation has remained largely contained.
To be sure, the tripling of crude oil prices has left its mark on "headline" inflation rates and inflicted considerable pain on some sectors of our economy. However, there is little evidence, at least to date, to suggest that oil price increases have started to embed themselves more broadly in the underlying cost structure of American business--that is, beyond the direct effects of the higher energy costs themselves. Nevertheless, despite the very recent declines in the price of oil, there are risks here that need to be monitored closely."

"Some misalignments have arisen over the course of the expansion. Owing largely to the increased rate of return on capital and a sizable wealth effect, overall demand for goods and services for the past four years has been growing noticeably in excess of the enhanced growth in potential supply, defined as the sum of the growth in the working-age population and productivity. An increasing share of the goods and services required to meet this extra demand has been supplied by net imports, with the remainder the result of an increase in domestic production achieved by drawing down the pool of those we count as officially unemployed and those otherwise available for work.
Short of a significant opening up of our borders to more immigration, an increase in employment beyond the growth of the working-age population is limited to what remains of our shrinking pool of available workers. ...there is a point at which this safety valve for excess demand will effectively close, even in the face of accelerating productivity. We do not know where that point is, but presumably it would occur well before a full depletion of the pool of potential workers. When we reach that point, short of a repeal of the law of supply and demand, the scarcity of labor will almost surely induce a rise in hourly compensation gains that increasingly outpaces an even faster productivity growth--a condition that would cause unit costs to accelerate over time."
"Moreover, we do not know how long net imports and U.S. external debt can rise before foreign investors become reluctant to continue to add to their portfolios of claims against the United States. At that point, the safety valve of net imports could narrow or close."

"As I have argued previously, a substantial part of the excess growth of demand over potential supply owes to a wealth effect, induced by the rising asset prices that have accompanied the run-up in potential rates of return on new and existing capital. The rise in stock prices, as well as in the capital gains on homes, has created a marked increase in purchasing power without providing an equivalent and immediate expansion in the supply of goods and services. That expansion in supply will occur only over time.
The persuasive evidence that the wealth effect is contributing to the risk of imbalances in our economy, however, does not imply that the most straightforward way to restore balance in financial and product markets is for monetary policy to target asset price levels. ... The risks of investing in equities come primarily from uncertainty about future earnings and about the rates at which those future earnings should be discounted, and much less from changes in overnight interest rates, the principal tool of the central bank. Consequently, even if we were to foster somewhat larger movements in short-term rates to address changes in stock prices, I doubt that investors' perceptions of equity risks would be much affected and thus that equity prices would be meaningfully influenced. In short, monetary policy should focus on the broader economy and on pending inflationary or deflationary imbalances. Should changes in asset prices foster economic imbalances, as they appear to have done in recent years, it is the latter we need address, not asset prices."

4DucatObservations#2812904/05/00; 12:15:53

Seems like we had a clear episode of inversive volatilities yesterday with the panic into gold opposite the panic out of stocks. I saw the dollar intraday chart looked just like the Nasdaq and DOW. All three did the BIG VEE, very interesting. Normally a big buyback like that is something to spring off of but in this case many secondary stocks are still down and are going sideways. So a few majors get some bottom fishing action, how many people still want out at a loss? When you're coming down the backside of the mountain don't stand on the trail too long or else you could get runover by the decending stampede. The run into bonds could easily be short circuited by a drop in the dollar. The see-saw between money flows out of the DOW stocks into the tech sector then the reverse with the Nasdaq selloff and a rise in the DOW. Yet yesterday we saw both the DOW and the Nasdaq act together. Oops, tried both doors, they're both dead ends. This "new April cash" has nowhere to go. Bonds you say? Did the dollar index follow the stock indexes? Or am I blind? The stock market backs the dollar. Dollars are redeamable in the stocks they can buy. If not the bubble there (inflated stock prices) then it will be in inflated something else. The key to the POG is what the BOJ does with its dollar supporting mechanism. Japan's leadership has never been quick to change a failing policy. In the 1870s Japan lost most of the gold in their country by insisting that it be held to their exchange rate to silver and not the world ratio. Traders scammed the banks by dumping silver for gold and Japan ended up with a serious run on its banks for gold. Bakumatsu Currency Crisis. The deal where the Japanese cheapen the yen to foster exports is what Reagan did in the 80s. How can worldwide currency dabasement remain an acceptable policy of major nations. Is the dollar strong because the other nations want their currency cheaper? Reganomics proclaimed it was such an advantage to have a cheaper dollar and it didn't really work but people think it helped exports. So the Euro is "kept cheap" and the yen is "kept cheap". What is the end result of this cheapening? You get to float a lot more loans with a currency that is perceived to be more easily obtainable in the future. So as a smart banker you write lots of loans when your currency is cheap and once everyone has loans out, you then raise the value of the currency so you get more for yours that you collect in loan payments. The Euro will reach that stage II where keeping it cheap is no longer desireable.

Once the Saudi's fully accept Euro's for oil then the jig is up. Taxes in the US would go so high to make up the deficit that we'll be sitting at the dock of the bay watching the tide roll away.

What we are entering is a game of corporate subversion between Republicans and Democrates. The Republicans want the economy to get more unstable and skitzophrenic so they have a "crisis to solve" yet they want it fixable and not too ruined. Merely bringing to light the reality of the delusion would do it. The Democrates want the spoof kept up at all costs. There is no way this overextension of markets can remain calm through to the election. The big corporations (especially oil) want BUSH in office and they will manipulate Japan to mess with the dollar to derail this train of smoke and mirrors. We can watch what happens. How would you get a Republican elected with the no problems economy we now have?

Fund managers are in a wait and see attitude, I think. Any stocks bought now are held very loosely with the trader's hand held over the mouse with the sell order and password pre-entered. At a click of a 100,000 mouses we could go into freefull again. That's for the ones going long. Who is out there trying to establish short positions at the tops of rallies? (everyone). It was merely the tremor before the quake. So let's say the index stocks rally nice for three days......the rest of the unsupported secondary stocks could go sideways and cause the public to loose faith in the tulipmania.

I see gold being more influenced by international events than by what is happening in the US. New leader in Japan, elected or appointed? A handpicked conservative to cater to big Japanese corporations and not the Fed. No matter how much foreign held dollars get recirculated to pump up the tulip garden there will still be a vast quantity of dollars looking for redemption. If foreign dollars decide to chase the "really cheap internet sector" it will not change the earnings outlook for these companies which is seriously flawed. The entire internet and non-internet economy is dependent on consumer spending. Consumer credit is the key to sustained spending and employment. With companies scrambling to show a profit, they resort to layoffs and consolidation. Mergermania is a buzzword for "keep only the best and layoff the rest". The small personal bankrupcies are like the tiny beer bubbles floating up and making larger bubbles. Corporate downsizing, mergers, thinning profit margins.....all produce the "fizz" of personal bankrupcies due to layoffs. People laidoff can easily find work but the pay rate is often much less and debt service remains.

People expect Harry Hardworker and Johnny Datek to jump back in and support their stocks, but they "bought and held" and never sold so they can't buy because their accounts just got reduced to 40%. So the talk on the street is "short term holding only". With no definable pattern trend for even professionals to follow the wannabees are going to "ride and hide" during the "pump and dump". The only certain element of this market that is as real as Gibralter is the massive insider selling that will occur no matter what the market does. What would you do if you were a CEO in a company that changes its business model every 6 months. You'd sell and sell and sellout. "We aren't in hardware anymore but most of our revenues come from that as we phase it out. We are going with the Information Technology model because we just trained all our hardware departments how to do software consulting. Quite a big step. But we made it and after we reorganize since our latest acquisition of "40 Kids and a Modem Entertainment" we should be highly skilled at 3-D gaming adventure in virtual reality. We have found that letting the new kids, I mean employees, play "action chess" actually strengthens the mind for drawing networks on paper. And since we want to remain flexible we need to keep mentally active while we keep the commitment to non-commitment. When some bricks and mortar relic of a corporation wants to merge, then we are ready to get a real business model."00624b8859

People think that funds are wildly dumping stock. They are only taking their que's from the insider selling that they see as a major threat to the stability of their portfolios. "If he is going to sell that much, then I'm selling too".

CoBra(too)@ Cavan Man - Computerized buying?#2813004/05/00; 13:08:24

Great thought - as Oct. crash 87 has been alleged computerize selling? - As I'm far too dumb with computers, I still would feel there would have to be some kind of an outside kickstart. In a market meltdown of these proportions even computers wouldn't (want) to know, when and why to trigger buying programs. Though, admittedly it just might have been GS & ML to turn the market on the basis of computer programmed data based on fair or other value calculations on and on behalf of themselves.

Brokers usually don't take these kind of chances - and for sure not to the benefit of their sheeple, the're always more out there - so? computers do what the're supposed to do - calculate the hedge/risk strategy, but they couldn't have had a clue as to when certain parameters would have set in in unprecedented markets, they have been setting up for so long.

Even if all the old rules have been aborted, margin calls are a final SU(r)Vival line for investment banksters. The full force of margin is yet to be tested as even outside help may prove to be inadequate in the long run. As it goes, it's better to bet on safe side and help your cronies out once in a while - as long as it's not going to be all the while. For that it seems too late - even if GS is still :-)!

F*rfel the buggers - and go gold - CB4 (I'm doubling up)

ZenideaActually I am speechless :)#2813104/05/00; 13:16:52


What scares me with all this talk of 1929 repeating, America bust or particularily the tone of it in my mind is the sorry fact that millions of people are starving in the world now!. In Jesus, Allahs, and Buddahs precious names,(In any order) I would be literally sick from stress by the concept of millions more suffering.
I am sure Jesus, Allah and Buddah could have sat around the same fire in the ashes for eternity contented never having an argument and I have faith enough that surely Hydrocarbon man has found and learnt something from the Golden flames by now through times like these that at least is slightly better than the best we could manage to do the last time these pressures presented themselves. Regards.

4Ducat4Ducat (04/05/00; 12:15:53MDT - Msg ID:28129)#2813204/05/00; 13:36:53

4Ducat, You accidently posted your code. You better change it!
4DucatAnybody can post in 4ducat's name now#2813304/05/00; 13:42:11


Ha Ha
CoBra(too)Media-Headlines after close (Bloomberg)#2813404/05/00; 14:11:59

NASDAQ rallies, surging Oracle System(ic) risk(s) and other tech stocks - forgot to state 20 points barely. ... DJIA declines ... well forget it - we know - by now ...

Let's rally for gold - CB2

Cavan ManElian (not off topic)#2813504/05/00; 15:00:33

I'm not worryin' about Elian (BTW, why don't they just disappear into the interior of the country). I'm not worryin' about the stock market. I just sold some stocks, finished up for the day and am watching Pokemon with my kids (it's harmless and fun really). I am thinking about how to earn more real money; what a pleaseant afternoon!

Did you know a Raichu is a fully evolved Pekachu without the speed moves?

Pokemon and gold (what Aristotle says). Good day!

4DucatA Warning to 4Ducat#2813604/05/00; 16:31:55

4Ducat: You will BURN in eternal sulphur and brimstone for mocking me! Signed: Mr. Seven Hills
MO VER MEGWAC CHALLENGE#2813704/05/00; 16:58:39

As per your suggestion, I bought an extra 100 oz. silver today. I urge others to do it, too!

Let everyone know about it.


Hill Billy MitchellOfficial Release#2813804/05/00; 17:04:43

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 5, 2000

Rates for Tuesday, April 4, 2000

Federal funds 6.15

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.83
10-year 5.90
20-year 6.12
30-year 5.77

4Ducattest#2813904/05/00; 17:04:51

just checking
Hill Billy MitchellCorrection - Wrong fed rate on # 28138#2814004/05/00; 17:09:28

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 5, 2000

Rates for Tuesday, April 4, 2000

Federal funds 5.98

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.83
10-year 5.90
20-year 6.12
30-year 5.77

MarkeTalkCollision Course: Gold and Greenspan#2814104/05/00; 17:22:57

After the events of the past few days with stocks swooning only to recover, I re-read a post by Reginald Howe which was written on March 14, 2000. It was e-mailed to me by a friend and confidant here at Centennial. I highly recommend everyone to read this article because it answers a lot of questions which have been posed at this forum. According to Mr. Howe, Greenspan is repeating the same mistakes which he claims doomed the economy in 1927-29. Mr. Howe is quite a scholar and provides many links to back up his argument. Whether things work out as he believes, only time will tell. But the parallels are chilling.
White RoseBuying 100 oz silver#2814204/05/00; 17:32:34

I want to help, but I have a problem. I have already bought almost 7000 oz of silver. Since a lot of it is pre-1966 coins (90% silver), the total weight is about 600 lbs.

I will be moving in a few months and am pretty much at my limit (I promised my wife to lay off buying gold and silver until we buy a new house).

Am I obligated to buy an additional 100 oz or can I rest on my own record of taking silver out of the hands of the industrial system?

HI - HATThe Big Chill#2814304/05/00; 18:36:07

What is really chilling to me in what manipulation we have all witnessed in these markets is the fact that nothing exposing the workings and inner organization involved is really layed out anywhere. Sure we on this site and similiar web sites know a little and surmise quite alot. Still, no ,Deep Throat, has come forth from any of these Banks or Wall Street firms. There's no Drudge, Frontline, etc., expose` or investigative analysis.

As far as Barrons, Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily, they are all tout rags, who wrap themselves in the cloak of, "Free Markets" and fair "Capitolism". Hypocrites who are ready to come down with both feet on any entity or cause they feel safe in trampling. Or who in their exalted state as watchdogs are a threat to the money game. So with the kind of turn-around, obvious, large scale market manipulation we had yesterday, not to mention the ongoing gold and silver assasination, will there be any "Insider" that will come forth and shed some light on the who, what, where, and why that this manipulation policy is about? Not Yet. The Players on all levals are paid and taken care of well. They are content in their greed and mission because they implicitly know they have much to FEAR if they don't stay silent. What we have here is a powerful Politico-Financial Establishment Overlord whose dominance and greed for power and money is what is in their minds too big to fail. All below must toe the line and live in fear of an infraction against the system. Fear and pay those Taxes. Who knows where this is all going to lead too. Elements of this spectacle contain fascism, communism, socialism,totalitarianism,fabianism..., but most now is an exercise in CANNABALISM.

4DucatHuh?#2814404/05/00; 18:38:56

Am I stupid or what?
FarfelImported Oil and Imported Money...#2814504/05/00; 18:58:54

I think the greatest tragedy of the corrupt Clinton regime is this:

These guys had the chance to move America away from imported oil-dependency.

But they blew it, not simply by moving far too slow in developing alternative energy sources but even more importantly by creating the false illusion of unlimited cheap gasoline availability. That illusion set the stage for the enormous demand for gas guzzlers (SUV's) and those vehicles have done more to endanger gasoline availability in this country than any other demand factor.

Even worse, they instigated the conditions by which this country's markets have become dependent on foreign money in order to sustain bubble stock market valuations. They did this via a combination of hedge fund currency raids PLUS currency and commodity carry trades.

So the big question is this: how can a country so dependent on foreign oil and foreign funds inflows still be considered "the strongest country in the world?"

From all indications, the American behemoth is more vulnerable today than at any other time in history.



Peter AsherMarkeTalk (04/05/00; 17:22:57MDT - Msg ID:28141)#2814604/05/00; 19:00:21

All parallel analysis between now and 1929 that I have read appear to leave out the one fact that makes today quite different in crash potential. In 1929 Stock purchasers could borrow 90% on Margin. That resulted in a margin quantity 9 times the value of purchaser's input, whereas today we only have an equal amount. That's 9 borrowed dollars for every investor dollar then, compared to one borrowed dollar for every investor dollar now.

If for discussion sake we assume 50 billion investor dollars in margin accounts, we would have 100 billion dollars of market capitalization being held on margin. (And 50 billion in margin debt outstanding)
Were today's situation truly parallel to 1929, that 50 billion dollars of investment would be supporting 500 billion dollars of market cap with a margin debt of 450 billion! That's a volatility factor of 9:1 in 1929 versus today. (And a "Wealth factor" 5 times greater)

When brokerage houses had to "Force sell" accounts to cover themselves at a 10% drop, the chain reaction was far more explosive than what would happen now to head off a 50% drop. Imagine yesterday's trading if margins were at 10%, and margin debt 9X the size of what exists today was wiped out.

That's enough default to create the end of the financial world as we know it!

USAGOLDMr. Holtzman...#2814704/05/00; 19:11:44

Since we cannot communicate through normal channels, let me do talk with you through this esteemed Forum.

I have received your note and I agree that history is a teacher with respect to PPT operations -- that these short works can act as prelude to the greater symphony. I will visit the link you suggest in a quiet moment and absorb as the recommendation comes from a respected source. And thank you for taking the time to write me.

Now, with respect to your own extraordinary posts for which we are all grateful: At times, my schedule and the weight of mail received makes for dropping the ball on important correspondence that should have found its way to the Forum. If I have not posted something you have sent, it is an error of ommission not commission. Though you've never mentioned this as a problem, I fear that I may not have posted a correspondence as requested and I apologize for that.

(At the same time, I want to say to all who send me correspondence (whether by e mail or post) that it is all read, all appreciated and it all has its effect. Please keep it coming, even if I don't (cannot) respond to every message.)

Mr. Holtzman, please send further communications which you intend for the group to this address:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Randy will make sure your words are posted on the board, unabridged as usual. That way we can both be assured that the job will be done as it should.

If there is a way I can relay a posting code to you anonymously, I am happy to do it, as you are one of the posters I would trust to maintain your anonymity with full respect to this Table now and in the future. Please call Marie collect if this would work for you. I will give her your code first thing tomorrow.

If you wish to make personal contact with me on any matter, please know that the door is always open. Your thoughts and references are always appreciated.


GoldmakORO,old gold,quixote,Newgold etc#2814804/05/00; 19:12:18

As you requested, here is one of the URL where Tzadeak posts now.
Solomon Weaver50:50 margin vs. 9:1#2814904/05/00; 19:14:08

Peter Asher

Good point about margin....just remember that most of today's margin leverage is not in margin accounts, it is in derivative trades....for example stock options and commoditiy futures. Also, there is a much larger participation in capital markets today...even those who have "safe" money market deposits are part of the story.

A lot of people may be reconsidering their concepts of wealth in the next few years.

The regular ladies and gentlemen on this forum are wealthy in their minds and hearts....and those who hold to their golden convictions may be blessed with golden wealth...(and might I add silver wealth as well).

Poor old Solomon

Cavan ManTo Farfel#2815004/05/00; 19:14:19

You're wrong only about one thing; the blame to go 'round regarding energy dependency goes back to 1980. From that point onward, successive administrations and pols at all levels are responsible. We've had twenty years to wean ourselves from the ME tete. Recall that coal gasification was a strategy employed by the germans out of necessity in WWII. That's one alternative. There are others. We've made a tremendous faux paux.

On all other points I agree. I know you don't care (because you've said as much) but this needs to be pointed out.

Kind regards...CM

Solomon Weaver50:50 margin vs. 9:1#2815104/05/00; 19:14:39

Peter Asher

Good point about margin....just remember that most of today's margin leverage is not in margin accounts, it is in derivative trades....for example stock options and commoditiy futures. Also, there is a much larger participation in capital markets today...even those who have "safe" money market deposits are part of the story.

A lot of people may be reconsidering their concepts of wealth in the next few years.

The regular ladies and gentlemen on this forum are wealthy in their minds and hearts....and those who hold to their golden convictions may be blessed with golden wealth...(and might I add silver wealth as well).

Poor old Solomon

Cavan ManUSAGOLD#2815204/05/00; 19:17:26

Can you elaborate just a little on the "greatrer symphony" remark?

This intervention; it scares the heck out of me. Thanks.

HI - HATUSAGOLD#2815304/05/00; 19:21:31

Hello. In todays commentary you ask, rhetorically, about why this frenetic of a level of correction denying, market manipulation?

My vote for the reason goes to the increasing level of financial instrument, "sophistication", that has now reached multitudes of counterparties being exposed to trillion, upon trillion, upon trillion dollars of risk. If dollar,interest rates,debt expansion etc., don't stay in some computer driven balance our whole financial system will explode like a piniata that Mark McGuire takes a swing at.

Cavan ManALL#2815404/05/00; 19:23:16

I've sat at this table of esteemed knights for almost one year now. Initially, after my first week of lurking, I could not sleep for 4 successive nights until I bought my first 100 lot of old world coins from CPM. Since then, I have been immensely humbled by the patience and kindness so many here have shown me. I am truly nothing more than the Court Jester.

I just want to say one thing. The action in the markets Tuesday has me more concerned than I have ever been these last twelve months.

GalearisI had a request to repost this on this forum.....#2815504/05/00; 19:49:20

A modest proposal
(GCMS) Apr 05, 09:38

First for you conspiracy buffs: All day yesterday, the Netscape business tab
which usually shows index quotes when you open the home page was
jambed on the opening values. You had to punch in the symbols to get a
reading. No use frightening the sheep.

And now for my prayer: I need as much help as you all can give on this,
because we have to reach a maximum number of people.

If your hierarchy begins with and end to a manipulated market, I
have a proposal, perhaps not modest, but I think achievable. I assume that
going head to head with Goldman Sachs and the Fed is in the realm of a
death or glory charge. Read 'Do we have much of a chance?' It has been
noted that officials will tell any lie and commit any crime necessary to
ensure the continuation of their policies, no matter how mistaken, and
this could drag on for years. As has been mentioned by Greenspan, so long
as central banks are willing to lease gold to keep the price down, gold will
remain cheap. They have more time, more money, and more gold than we
Also, I dislike the thought of leaving the manipulators to continue
their work, knowing that, at the moment either of their choosing or when
they see the handwriting on the wall, they (especially Goldman Sachs) will
acquire all the free gold available and masses of paper gold at the cheapest
possible price in order to cover their own positions, and make massive profits
on the upside, even as they profitted by beating the price down previously. It
has been suggested that in the event of an actual market crash, they will be
able to cover their positions from distress sales by smaller players.
My proposal is to carry the battle to the enemy, but not in a frontal
I suggest that the key to unlocking the gold market is not gold, nor is it
buying gold shares, nor waiting and hoping to pick up a few oats that the
horse misses. I suggest that the key to the gold market - its achilles heal - is
its link to silver.
Assuming that the estimates I have seen are correct as to the rapid
drawing down of reserves of silver, and remembering what happened to the
gold price when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, I suggest
a consortium, not of the giants, but of us all. We must remove from the
market in excess of one hundred million ounces of silver bullion. Bullion, not
coins or jewelry, for with the latter, we cannot be sure how large the pool, or
how many will cheerfully sell at the possibility of a small gain. In short, one
million buyers...of one hundred ounces of silver bullion each (more for they
who can or will).
Delivered. Unhedgeable. Unloanable. Unmanipulated. The quantity is
small enough to fit inside a safe deposit box, the expenditure reasonable at
current market prices, and let the shorts hold the price down as long as they
can, for it will only rebound the harder on them.
At some stage, Mr. Buffett will have to exercise his fiduciary trust to
his shareholders and call in his leased silver or risk losing it. And better now,
than when the world stocks are totally exhausted.
I myself, and my brother are buying one thousand ounces of bullion each.
Yes, I could buy more of those 4 cent options for March 2001 $9 silver. Yes,
certain securities would probably give a much greater return. And yes,
eighty-five pounds of silver bars holding open the door or serving as a
marking post for the dog is more than a bit of a nuisance. (I think it would
break the safe deposit box, and how to carry the thing).
If your desire is actually to free the precious metals market from
the hands of the few, help us. Talk to every precious metal internet site,
forum, friend, and founder. Try to reach shareholders of precious metal
company shares - what a way to enhance the share value. Pass this on,
Buy some yourself, pay cash, and don't give your name if you fear
government confiscation of bullion. Americans can buy it in Canada,
(perhaps in Mexico also? Not my field of expertese) if they're really scared.
Talk it up. Put the fear of god into the shorts. Have people report in as they
buy, and keep running totals of how much has been taken out of the market.


CanuckPost # 28110#2815604/05/00; 19:54:41

Been sitting back lurking...reflecting.

That story makes me want to puke.

I don't think Farfel will be able to read that; it's
that bad.

Sitting on cash, gold and silver, I'll wait until November.
I'm going to fish this summer, get the trophy bass and Nasdaq can bite my butt.

Solomon Weaver(No Subject)#2815704/05/00; 20:12:38

Latest article by Ted Butler on silver....

Note to White Rose....

with 7Koz of junk silver, you are well advise to you is to summarize in 500 words or less, why buying 100 ounces of silver for delivery (at less than $1000 including postage) is a solid investment...and then sending a copy to everyone you think will listen....

What absolutely blows my mind in silver is the fact that shrewed Mr. Buy and Hold Buffet is sitting on at least 100 million ounces of silver bullion...which is getting awful close to 50% of the entire world's liquid vault silver...a massive corner on the market!!!!!

Does anyone here remember those adds run in the 70s where the camera pans across some scenic landscape and on to a roadway...and suddenly, a car comes bursting out of the empty road!!! The trick photographers had taken a real scene and carefully replaced the real road with a paper facade which had such a perfect replica of the real thing that the viewer believes he is still looking at reality....and then, hidden behind the paper comes a real car zooming along...its reality hidden by the paper story in front...until the moment it bursts through and the illusion is shattered.

Let's say that the gold supply deficit today is 2000 tons...that is still only about 2% of known gold in wealth storage. And the Venerosso estimate of 13,000 tons short represents about 10% of physical stock. The moral here is that at some new price level, there is still enough gold to meet future demand.

With silver, which is an important industrial commodity but has been leased out like a PM. The short position is over 100% of 1 years total demand and known stocks can hardly cover deficit for one year...and if Mr. Buffet holds...well closer to six months....and it will take more than $10-20 pricing to convince me and White Rose to send our junk in for fiat.

Another very important consideration...70% of the worlds silver production is silver which is recovered as a "side product" of copper, zinc, and lead mining. There are very few mines which are primarily silver mines...and those mines have not been getting a lot of new investment lately. Thus, unless the demand for Cu Zn and Pb rise 20-30%, it is hard to imagine silver production rising...unless silver prices rise so high that Cu Zn and Pb miners can make more money just getting silver and stockpiling base metals.

I haven't posted here much lately...but tonight I am back in my usual mood...SILVER IS THE POOR MAN'S GOLD.

I tell you folks...the day will come when you can hold a silver eagle in your hand and call yourself a lucky fellow...and maybe even buy a nice two piece business suit or a good restaurant meal with it (at least if you were willing to convert to fiat before you dine).

Like I said last night...lately I've kept a 1998 silver eagle in my pocket and I'll show it to people and say "do you know what this is?" And I tell them that 1998 was the year that Warren Buffet cornered the market on silver and nobody noticed.

Folks...go read this brief article by Ted Butler.

Poor old Solomon

ZenideaMarkeTalk. HI-HAT the definition of greed ?#2815804/05/00; 20:15:26

MarkTalk thanks for the referal to Gold Sextant that may induce to exercise a few synapsis into twitching mode :).

Hi-Hat. my friend, Check this one out for madness!. I brought a few humble acres a short while ago with the genesis of a stream quietly trickling through the back of them.
On the properties are three springs in from the stream that further feeds it at an average rate of about 120 liters a minute. The stream feeds and eventually leads to a rather large Government dam some 30 kilometers away through which they tap and feed the water to the general public all over the joint including the place from whence it came to ironically arrive at the front of the same said properties. On the property at this stage is a simple water tank and a modest shed and remember these springs.

Now the Authorities want ME to pay them an astonomical 37 cents for every thousand liters used from what they call there scheme water. A scheme !!?, more like a shifty shiesty crafty cunning sly devious scam based on power and a PHD in unfettered blind GREED !!!.

If there really was a major catastophe one might imagine the responce of these ungrateful greedy selfish animals if some poor vagrant sod simply wanted a drink of water from one of there taps. So how much more of a problem will we have with Gold in trying to get back to the source of the problem ?. Perhaps we are looking in the wrong spot?, perhaps we should all be having a closer look at ourselves ?. Dispite drowning in it, this lot would have me believe that water was Gold.
We ask ourselves what is being manipulated ok "GOLD" I am asking myself, "what isnt" ?.

pdeepFutures#2815904/05/00; 20:18:21

They're all looking pretty grim right now for equities, but after what Oro said, I'm not sure it means much for tomorrow's action, since the PPT seems to be able to pump them up in a jiffy.
Solomon WeaverGalearis#2816004/05/00; 20:50:14

Fortunately for us, the crisis in silver is so close, that long before the likes of us could convince 1 million people to buy 100 ounces each...the silver train will crash.

Berkshire Hathaway may state that they continue to lease silver....but knowing Mr. Buffet can we suspect that he is only leasing just enough to say he is leasing???? If central banks can say they are selling gold and not really sell it to anyone but other central banks...why can't Mr. Buffet play the same game and say he is leasing silver and not really be leasing it (much)?

Let's take a good psychological look at Mr. Buffet's motives here:

Mr. Buffet is a value investor who favors asset value and book value over rate of profit growth or high P/E ratios...he likes growing companies with monopolyesque market positions who have solid cash flow, reasonable debt loads....he likes to own dominant positions in any company he gets into...because he likes to have serious voting power as a shareholder.

He is also a very patient he looks bad because he is not on the internet bandwagon...still "stuck" in the "old economy"...well, well, well, time will tell, tell , tell.

Now Mr. Buffet went out in early 1998 and pulled off one of the most amazing feats ever seen...he bought close to 20% of the world's vault silver at historic rock bottom prices and the market really only reacted in price because they heard the news after the sale. Mr. Buffet absolutely understood that he could only do this because the paper illusion of silver was the pricing mechanism.

Now, Mr. Buffet has three options:

1. Sell his silver at today's paper price and make a paltry return on the money he spent two years ago. Does anyone believe that this is his style????

2. Lease out most of his silver and stand in line with all the other silver leasing banks in the world trying to make counterparty claims when it explodes...thus diluting his vote in the chaos by a factor of 1:10, and forcing himself to accept a "cash settlement" that has nothing to do with real silver price. If this is so, why did he insist on delivery from the start?

3. Reduce the leasing on his silver to absolute minimum levels so that when the silver paper market burns, he is sitting pretty with well over 1/2 of the worlds highly liquid silver supply (vault silver)...he will be the only "voting shareholder" in the silver world at that point.

Now, Monty Hall (Let's Make a Deal) asks:

Which door is Mr. Buffet standing behind?

Poor old Solomon

JourneymanA post from the Devil's Advocate#2816104/05/00; 20:55:27

I agree -- let the market clear itself -- NOW -- no matter what the cost. Because I believe the longer it goes, the worse it will be when it finally unwinds.

BUT the Hong Kong government propped up the Hang Seng a couple of years ago. If I remember correctly, it's been selling the shares back recently.

I don't believe in Santa Klas, but can someone tell me what harm was done, at least in the case of the Hang Seng?


Canuck@ 4Ducat#2816204/05/00; 21:00:58

Are you having fun?

I'm having fun watching you have fun.

You ok?

Lexreporting regulations#2816304/05/00; 21:02:28

I was reading someones message the other day and there was a comment that referred to a 1985 law passed about reporting gold ownership or reporting the buy/sell transaction. I'm somewhat familiar with the 1933 law that confiscated privately held gold but not the '85 regulation. Can someone bring me up to speed on this? I wasn't aware that there was any reporting requirement.
BonedaddyJournyman, Yes, I saw the movie once...#2816404/05/00; 21:04:10

but had forgotton the analogy to todays America. I'll have to rent it again to relish the irony. Do you watch the History Channel? They have been running a series lately on "The Nazis: A Lesson From History". Der Furher (I mean Clinton, apologies to Hitler) is a practicing National Socialist. (I believe this is/was the definition of Nazi.)
From attempts to usurp control of healthcare, to gun control, to the bombing of non-combatants in Kosovo this administration has trampled liberty and individual rights while hypnotizing the masses with easy credit and lax morality. It is no wonder the GOLD ownership has fallen out of favor with most in this nation. The market manipulation we witness really ticks me off on one level. On another level, I really am thankful that so many here have done so much to alert me to it. I believe that every generation must pass its time of trials. Integrity, fidelity, honesty, and freedom in thier purest forms are never cheap. Their incredible value must be taught to each generation of fresh faces. The price is never cheap. The true value of GOLD is, of course, in its inherent "integrity". Not to say that an inanimate object could possess such a divine trait, but GOLD enforces "integrity" through continuity of value. It is what it is, and it claims to be no more or no less. It is at one time, only money, filthy lucre. But, to quote Dylan, "his clothes are dirty, but his hands are clean." Gold is clean because it doesn't derive its value dishonorably, through debasement, or by lending for interest. These are the traits of paper gold. (Ah... paper gold... the angel of light....may stocks and options make gods of us all.)

All my best to you!

Solomon WeaverZenidea#2816504/05/00; 21:11:35

Now the Authorities want ME to pay them an astonomical 37 cents for every thousand liters used from what they call there scheme water. A scheme !!?, more like a shifty shiesty crafty cunning sly devious scam based on power and a PHD in unfettered blind GREED !!!.
How greedy really....?

At those prices you could live happily on about 2500 liters per day and pay about $300/year....25-30 years without inflation and you would be at about $10,000. Now, assuming that you wanted to develop that spring as your own supply. Is it possible that the cost of digging and maintaining a small reservoir supplied by the spring, and paying a contractor to bury a pipe below the frost line could cost you as much as $10,000 in the end?

Are you willing to extend the project and offer supply to your neighbors?? Along with implied liabilities???

The community I live in does not have water service. We all have wells...and some poor neighbors have sulphur in the water....I can tell you that they day that "municipal water" is here, the market value of my home will go up at least $20,000. So even if I had a spring as lovely as yours, I would be glad to pay the price for the water utility.

Improvement of water and roads is one of the biggest blessings a community can have...perhaps you will be happy knowing that even though your water flows 60 miles in a circle back to you...your 37 cents is part of a grander plan that gives you other benefits.

Wish I could go sit there with you and drink from the source and watch the deer...

Poor old Solomon

ZenideaMr Solomon Weaver of words :) !re: 28160#2816604/05/00; 21:54:59

Yeah yeah yeah !. Talk about manipulation!:. If I asked someone not to think about the colour Silver ?, one must first assess that information in order to evaluate what was just said. The manipulation is in Mr Buffets head and ours if we choose to believe it.

1)Mr Buffet the person . 2) Mr Buffet the behaviour, and behold an objective view of the issue. Sometimes the truth as discursive or as near as we can get to it, can, as it just did then, by your absolute deductive brilliance, jumped out and pleasently smacked me clean in the kisser. Thanks for that :).

Having said that. Gone fishing :) Warm regards

ZenideaSolomon#2816704/05/00; 21:58:41

Got to rush . Theres a dam being built right now. and quickly I would give it away to my neighbours. and mate your welcome :). rush rush rush. hehe.
Galearis@ Solomon Weaver about "my" last post....#2816804/05/00; 22:06:52

I did not write this piece, although it has a certain quality of style that is similar to my own (smile), and certainly I agree with the spirit of the message - as I also agree with your kindly put rebutal. One certainly does not know whether the edge of the cliff is near when stumbling around in the fog, yes? A mass frontal attack on the the evil doers by an organized group of little snapping silver bugs WOULD, of course, be only successful if time was on our side. But we know also that time really IS on our side - and that we don't really need a frontal attack because of the severity of the short position of the evil ones. Time really will tell on them, yes? But there is more sense in the strategy of accumulating for me.(smile) I am not a day trader, and I do not mind the wait. I do not, except for a sense of moral outrage, want this manipulation to end. I buy more. An investment of time for greater rewards later.

Also I am already doing as laid out in the plan. As a small (very small), but unapologetic little silver bug with sharp teeth (but small budget)I follow the plan with vigour, averaging a purchase of physical silver to the quantity of 50 oz. per month. This is a very practical plan. Silver door stops are very nice to look at, and I love paper so there is additional service in paper weights. Most I use as fertilizer, however, in select little "gardens" about the property. Over the years it accumulates.

This too is part of the plan, yes?

My real worry in your mention of the Buffett silver buy is whether in the coming chaos some sort of calamity might not be orchestrated against him to force him to release this to the market. This could be by conspiracy - or just the result of collapsing markets as we all witnessed yesterday.
Result: posponement of the silver bull as he sells into the market at the bottom.

As it stands now I estimate that if this silver market does not blow up this month, it will probably last the summer. April was the earliest time by my estimates (and others) for them to run out of physical. Or perhaps the Silver Institute is "accurate" (snicker).

Or, on the other hand, the NASDAQ and or the DOW could collapse first.

Nobody knows. Nobody (except maybe Goldman Sachs.)
(But isn't it interesting that they now keep silver THIS low - even as the deficit deepens!?)

FarfelPeter Asher, I DISAGREE with your SM margin analysis..#2816904/05/00; 22:53:17

Peter Asher (04/05/00; 19:00:21MDT - Msg ID:28146)
MarkeTalk (04/05/00; 17:22:57MDT - Msg ID:28141)
All parallel analysis between now and 1929 that I have read appear to leave out the one fact that makes today quite
different in crash potential. In 1929 Stock purchasers could borrow 90% on Margin. That resulted in a margin
quantity 9 times the value of purchaser's input, whereas today we only have an equal amount. That's 9 borrowed
dollars for every investor dollar then, compared to one borrowed dollar for every investor dollar now.

If for discussion sake we assume 50 billion investor dollars in margin accounts, we would have 100 billion dollars
of market capitalization being held on margin. (And 50 billion in margin debt outstanding)
Were today's situation truly parallel to 1929, that 50 billion dollars of investment would be supporting 500 billion
dollars of market cap with a margin debt of 450 billion! That's a volatility factor of 9:1 in 1929 versus today. (And
a "Wealth factor" 5 times greater)

When brokerage houses had to "Force sell" accounts to cover themselves at a 10% drop, the chain reaction was far
more explosive than what would happen now to head off a 50% drop. Imagine yesterday's trading if margins
were at 10%, and margin debt 9X the size of what exists today was wiped out.

That's enough default to create the end of the financial world as we know it!

Peter, although today's investor is required by his stock broker to put up much more margin than in 1929, in reality, based upon current American debt per capita figures (the highest in history) PLUS American savings per capita figures (the lowest in history), then there has never been so much debt held by the investing public and so little savings. In that sense, the average American investor is leveraged to the hilt.

So although brokerage houses force investors to put up more margin today, in fact, the average investor has never had greater inclination nor an easier time getting a house mortgage (1st or 2nd), then using the proceeds for stock market investment. Today's average investor has all variety of credit card options that were not available in 1929, and he can obtain huge cash forwards/lines of credit that can be utilized also for stock market investment.

So although today's average investor may hold 50% margin at his friendly stock broker's office, if you include his other forms of leveraging (primarily house mortgages and credit cards), then I would imagine that his aggregate debt vs. aggregate net worth puts him not too far from the 1929 leverage factor of 90% debt against 10% deposit.

That is why Monday's little market event might be all that was needed to begin an amazing snowball effect leading toward a climactic market crash.

If enough margin calls were issued on Monday, and assuming the market does not snap back immediately this week, then conceivably hundreds of thousands of investors will be compelled to begin a deleveraging of their lives. The margin calls might force all variety of real estate liquidations (as a result of mortgage borrowings used for stock market investments), not to mention other forms of liquidiations to satisfy credit card companies demanding repayment of advances utilized for stock market investment.

Although this de-leveraging will not occur overnight, its real effects might begin to show up in the stock market in another month or so.

From my perspective, if aggregate debt levels held by American investors are as large as they appear...and if their savings are in fact negative now...then in the absence of a quick stock market run up over the next few days, then another huge round of forced stock market liquidation should show up as early as a month from now, but probably not later than two months from now.

I guess what I'm saying is this: assuming the Consumer Bureau stats are correct, then Monday's drop was in fact a stock market crash, with a the great confirmation downspike looming.



FarfelPeter Asher...Correction on Date in Previous Post.#2817004/05/00; 22:57:18

Ooops, sorry, it's a late night. The market event I am referring to is "Turnaround Tuesday."



Black BladeJust another day in cheeseburger paradise!#2817104/05/00; 22:57:31

Just some ramblings from the Blade!

Well now, what day we had! The markets opened sharply lower, then suddenly reversed direction, only to end up mixed. This occurred as the bumbling child king and his chorus of trained seals appeared in a spectacle called the "New Economy Summit". There was the "Coward in Chief" himself muttering such things as "I wasn't really saying that biotech companies could not patent genome research", Cheetah (Al G-span) tossing a few well placed bananas to the clueless crowd who watch with their eyes glazed over and mouths agape, and Abbey Jo saying that seven days ago she was just kidding and that now she's "enthusiastic about US stock prices". Gimme a break! This circus act was almost laughable. No! I am in error - it was laughable. Though I must admit that I personally find the whole event rather amusing (and entertaining). One would have to wonder how many rabbits this crowd can pull out of their collective *****. Crudele laid it all out it his article, and MK's market report says it all. Guess I'll sit on my Old/New Economy stocks for now and continue to add to my PMs (physical and paper), meanwhile I'll watch this amusing tragic comedy unfold.
onlychildFarfel @ MSG28169#2817204/05/00; 23:39:24

Farfel, to add to your volatility argument: I recently heard of a mortgage company that would cut you a special deal if you couldn't come up with 10% down for your new home purchase. They would take your stock portfolio instead. So if you were buying a $150K home, all you need is a $15K portfolio to turn over to the mortgage co. The catch is that if the value of the stock dropped, you must cover the difference immediately. So imagine if that portfolio was leveraged at 50%. Suddenly you need some cash. If you had any cash to begin with you probably would have used it in the first place. So what do you do? Get a second mortgage at one of those 125% of your home's value, high-interest, late night TV mortgage houses. Oh yeah, and hope the stock doesn't drop any more.

And if there's any money left over, how about that IPO your buddy was touting?

FarfelPeter Asher: Margin in the Stock Market, Final Clarification#2817304/06/00; 00:15:18


Peter, although today's investor is required by his stock broker to put up much more margin than in 1929, in
reality, based upon current American debt per capita figures (the highest in history) PLUS American savings per
capita figures (the lowest in history), then there has never been so much debt held by the investing public and so
little savings. In that sense, the average American investor is leveraged to the hilt.

So although brokerage houses force investors to put up more margin today, in fact, the average investor has never
had greater inclination nor an easier time getting a house mortgage (1st or 2nd), then using the proceeds for stock
market investment. Today's average investor has all variety of credit card options that were not available in 1929,
and he can obtain huge cash forwards/lines of credit that can be utilized also for stock market investment.

So although today's average investor may hold 50% margin at his friendly stock broker's office, if you include his
other forms of leveraging (primarily house mortgages and credit cards), then I would imagine that his aggregate
debt vs. aggregate net worth puts him not too far from the 1929 leverage factor of 90% debt against 10% deposit.

That is why Tuesday's little market event might be all that was needed to begin an amazing snowball effect leading
toward a climactic market crash.

If enough margin calls were issued on Monday & Tuesday, and assuming the market does not snap back immediately this
week, then conceivably hundreds of thousands of investors will be compelled to begin a deleveraging of their
lives. The margin calls might force all variety of real estate liquidations (as a result of mortgage borrowings used
for stock market investments), not to mention other forms of liquidiations to satisfy credit card companies
demanding repayment of advances utilized for stock market investment.

Although this de-leveraging will not occur overnight, its real effects might begin to show up in the stock market in
another month or so.

From my perspective, if aggregate debt levels held by American investors are as large as they appear...and if their
savings are in fact negative now...then in the absence of a quick stock market run up over the next few days, then
another huge round of forced stock market liquidation should show up as early as a month from now, but
probably not later than two months from now.

I guess what I'm saying is this: assuming the Consumer Bureau stats are correct, then Tuesday's drop was in fact
a stock market crash, with the great confirmation downspike looming in the next few months.

In effect, to draw an analogy that would make Ralph Acampora proud (after all, the man said the speed of modern technology dramatically shortens the duration of today's bull-bear markets): if Tuesday represents 1929, then the next drop this year will take the markets to the 1930's low.



THX-1138a liberal media interpretation of the Battle of Lexington.#2817404/06/00; 00:22:22


I thought this was such a cool parody. How today's liberal media would view our Founding Fathers battle for freedom in Lexington in 1775.

Governor Condemns Extremists

BOSTON - National guard units seeking to confiscate a cache of recently banned assault weapons were ambushed on April 19th by elements of a paramilitary extremist faction.
Military and law enforcement sources estimate that 72 were killed and more than 200 injured before government forces were compelled to withdraw.

Speaking after the clash Massachusetts Governor Thomas Gage declared that the extremist faction, which was made up of local citizens, has links to the radical right-wing tax protest movement.

Gage blamed the extremists for recent incidents of vandalism directed against internal revenue offices. The governor, who described the group's organizers a "criminals," issued an executive order authorizing the summary arrest of any individual who has interfered with the government's efforts to secure law and order.

The military raid on the extremist arsenal followed wide-spread refusal by the local citizenry to turn over recently outlawed assault weapons. Gage issued a ban on military style assault weapons and ammunition earlier in the week. This decision followed a meeting in early this month between government and military leaders at which the governor authorized the forcible confiscation of illegal arms.

One government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, pointed out that "none of these people would have been killed had the extremists obeyed the law and turned over their weapons voluntarily." Government troops initially succeeded in confiscating a large supply of outlawed weapons and ammunition. However, troops attempting to seize arms and
ammunition in Lexington met with resistance from heavily armed extremists who had been tipped off regarding the government's plans.

During a tense standoff in Lexington's town park, National Guard Colonel Francis Smith, commander of the government operation, ordered the armed group to surrender and return to their homes. The impasse was broken by a single shot, which was reportedly fired by one of the right-wing extremists.

Eight civilians were killed in the ensuing exchange. Ironically, the local citizenry blamed government forces rather than the extremists for the civilian deaths. Before order could be restored, armed citizens from surrounding areas had descended upon the guard units. Colonel Smith, finding his forces overmatched by the armed mob, ordered a retreat.

Governor Gage has called upon citizens to support the state/national joint task force in its effort to restore law and order. The governor also demanded the surrender of those responsible for planning and leading the attack against the government troops. Samuel Adams, Paul Revere, and John Hancock, who have been identified as "ringleaders" of the extremist faction, remain at large.

April 20, 1775

Mr GreshamGalearis / Solomon#2817504/06/00; 00:24:33

You guys just get better and better. What great reading today!

HI - HAT & 4DUCAT : you were kind of amazing, yourselves. It's great to be in your company.

Peter AsherFarfel, Solomon#2817604/06/00; 00:48:48

Farfel (04/05/00; 22:53:17MDT - Msg ID:28169)
Peter Asher, I DISAGREE with your SM margin analysis..

Farfel, I don't think you really do.

Just last weekend in Peter Asher (03/27/00; 00:12:32MDT - Msg ID:27532) I said:
"When spending has been fueled by Debt, than that purchasing power has been spent indeed! A circular flow of debt service is created. Former producers now live on the Golf Course and sail their Yachts receiving interest payments from others who receive mortgage payments from others who draw CD interest from banks who receive car and appliance loan payments from consumers who have spent all their savings and earnings giving stock certificate sellers the funds to buy the production of all the workers who so far have had a market to produce for.

Now in theory, if the current balance of flows were to remain in stasis this could go on indefinitely. However the current flow cycle is based on the expectancy of change. The current rate of consumption is fueled by the unsustainable premise of more and more unearned wealth being acquired out of what is really Joe attaining Harry's savings. This infamous bubble creates larger and larger quantities of debt service as it goes. The laws of physics dictate that one cannot neither pull one's self up by one's boot-straps nor hoist a load on a "Skyhook." Once the "Expectancy" of the "Easy Money" (whether easy loan or easy gain) vanishes, the money machine will wind down and some one won't make a mortgage payment to a bond issuer who won't make an interest payment to a bank who also isn't getting an SUV loan payment and who now has to pay up to the Federal reserve window for the extra funds to offset the default.

Debt service will become the Emperor's suit of clothes that will unravel as the stitches start to pop."

What I was describing this afternoon was the CHAIN REACTION that took place because a small move in the price of the stocks triggered margin calls, and more specifically SELLOUTS which further depress prices, begetting more margin calls and sellouts. They don't have to give you time to put up more money when it's in free-fall! That is a major difference between then and now. What you are saying about overall debt, I have been saying here for a year and a half. That is also a major difference between then and now, on that we concur totally.

Solomon, thanks for the response. I'm tapped out tonight even though it's 'only'23:52 pacific time. I'll try to address the derivative situation tomorrow.

4DucatIm standing on my head and wiggling my toes#2817704/06/00; 01:19:18

And you dont know who i am because 4ducat accidently pasted his posting code into : 4Ducat (04/05/00; 12:15:53MDT - Msg ID:28129)

ha ha ha

lamprey_65Speaking of Margin...#2817804/06/00; 02:10:09

I heard something reported today I thought some would find interesting. Seems that one of the brokerage houses (Merrill Lynch, I think it was) has said that 90% of the margin calls they delivered this week prompted investors to deposit more cash into their accounts instead of selling. I guess there is still quite a bit of optimism out there. How long will it last if prices don't hold up?


RugenSwiss Gold#2817904/06/00; 02:23:39

In the beginning of WW2 the Swiss decided for safekeeping,
to send there entire Gold Schatz to the USA. I am trying to find out te exact quantity. At some point early in the war the US decided to confiscate this Gold. The term used for this action was more benign but the end effect was the same. This USA action forced the Swiss into dealing with the Germans on Gold in order to back the SFR with Gold to retain its purchasing power or starve slowly.
Interestingly during the entire war the USA never cofiscated
the Gold of Italy a war participant or France, a conquered nation.
To the Point of this.
Switzerland has made many requests since 1946 for the return
of this Gold.The Cheese-country populus is blissfully unaware of this. The response of the US has been negative all these Years. The US does not deny the ownership,nevertheless its return is still open. I wonder if this Gold sale by the Swiss is an attempt to force the issue by selling this very Gold on deposit with the USA.
The official gold stock of Switzerland aprox. 2400 tons does not contain Gold held as national defense, be it for weapons or food or economic-survival. The unofficial figure of Gold held is more like 7000 tons. Please exuse my poor English.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)@Rugen - Swiss Gold#2818004/06/00; 04:06:23

I am a little puzzled here re this confiscated gold. If the FED have not entertained the thought of the return of the gold to it's rightful owner, how does a sale help the Swiss? Do they tell the buyers to go and collect at Fort Knox? Or is it that the FED are just printing more $$s to handover for the Swiss. Please expand a little bit more.
RugenRUGEN to WAC#2818104/06/00; 04:35:52

I suspect the Swiss will be happy either way.
I,like your plan will purchase 1000 oz. of Silver this week.

RossLCharts of the week#2818204/06/00; 04:40:08

The charts of the week over at Investech are becoming very interesting to watch. NASDAQ p/e ratio, intraday volatility, the gorilla index.
The Invisible Handquestion: London Stock Exchange: A coincidence#2818304/06/00; 04:44:26

From the deJager list:

Date: Wed, 05 Apr 2000 15:07:35 +0100
From: "Karl W. Feilder" < This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. >
Subject: question: London Stock Exchange: A coincidence
To: "Year2000-Discuss@Year2000. Com" < This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. >
Reply-to: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Dear all,
Firstly - I have not fallen off the planet ..... but more of that another time.
You are certainly aware that NASDAQ is busy at the moment.
But did you know that trading on London Stock Exchange was suspended today .. because their computers have broken down (the media is being vague).
I just wondered if anyone else thought this was strange on the first trading day of April 2000, the first trading day of 2Q2000, and today is the last day of the UK fiscal year ??
Your thoughts ? Some facts ?
best regards

HI - HATNational Security State Mentality#2818404/06/00; 04:56:34

When in the dimmed past did the forces begin gathering momentum to bring us to the present environment of institutionalized lawbreaking in a Croney Overlord Network. I would say since Cival War. It has all lead to this crossroads of power and Empire thats become an etherial mindset whose "command", decisions are all sanctioned under a National Security State Mentality

This will be the Countries undoing. The disconnect from "the Good", that empowered the Country in the framework of the Founding Fathers will lead to the unfolding of George Washingtons "VISION", that he had of future events and usher in much tribulation upon the Country.

4Ducattest#2818504/06/00; 05:05:26

4Ducattest2#2818604/06/00; 05:06:07

4Ducattest3#2818704/06/00; 05:07:32

Hello bonehead!!!!
Black BladeASL - they never learn#2818804/06/00; 05:33:54

"Those who do not remember the past, are doomed to..."

Ghanaian gold miner Ashanti to continue hedging after Anglo deal

London--Apr 5--Ghanaian gold miner Ashanti's Chief Executive Sam Jonah said Wednesday that Ashanti had no immediate intention of reducing its hedging activities in the near future. (Story .19281)

Black Blade: Why? The last disaster was exciting and did wonders for shareholder value, why hell - let's do it again! I kind of suspected that ASL was only a penny stock anyway ;-)

Henri4Ducat#2818904/06/00; 06:35:23

You better get a new password and ID. Too bad I really liked 4Ducat associated with such a fine piece of PM
Henri100 oz silver plan#2819004/06/00; 06:36:59

Klunk! a new doorstop just arrived
LelandFiend's SuperBear Page -- Extremely Great for Today!#2819104/06/00; 07:23:06

Always good, today is special.
MO VER MEGWAC - 100 ounce club#2819204/06/00; 07:54:30

I see several readers already responding to your challenge - good for you. I suggest that you might set up a site where people could register their commitment and support. Maybe USA GOLD would help you.

You have a winner of an idea. People need a point to rally around. Long live the 100 ounce club!

If I can be of help, just ask.


IronHeadSirs 4Ducat, HI HAT, Simply Me#2819304/06/00; 08:17:45

Sir 4Ducat- As the pranksters seem to be having a chuckle on you, it gives solice to know at least they're reading in detail, no? They should be so wise as to go back and read your excellent post on 3-24 #27440, "The Lull Before The Storm", and in the same vein the also outstanding thoughts by Simply Me, on 3-26 #27531, "The Powers Of Executive Orders".
Sir HI HAT's follow thru yesterday 4-5 #28143, "The Big Chill", put some icing on the cake; upside down though it may seem.

Each of these poignant thoughts reflect the Neville Chamberlain thinking of our time, and gives one rememberance of how history jumps back to bite us. Thinking of old Neville reminds me of Albright, the ultimate ox_moron.

I picked up 25 ounces of silver slivers last week, and will get right on my other 75 ASAP. Now, if I could just add three zeros onto that 75.


4Ducat4ducat?#2819404/06/00; 08:22:57

No, but an incredible simulation.
Better tell MK asap, 4ducat.

The Invisible HandLondon Stock Exchange: A coincidence#2819504/06/00; 08:39:14

More from the deJager list

From: "Bill Stocking" < This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. >
Organization: Northbrook Consulting Group, Inc.
To: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Date: Thu, 6 Apr 2000 00:18:24 -0005
Subject: Re: London Stock Exchange: A coincidence
Reply-to: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Wow... so that was happening in London too!
Well, I didn't think anything of it at the time but on Monday in Chicago,
the first workday of this month, the computers in my local bank went down.
I tried to make an appointment at my medical clinic but couldn't do so because their computers were down also! I believe there were a few other networks in the Chicago area that went down on Monday as well -- too many perhaps for mere coincidence.

Bill Stocking
Northbrook Consulting Group, Inc

ZenideaBlackBlade #2819604/06/00; 08:46:50

A licence to literally destroy and create more money?.

BlackBlade. Hi friend, I have seen some siseable clumps of Gold on display in Perth over the years of which one was fist sise ( Crystal Gold ) Yes actual Crystals like trees wanting to grow out of itself. I am sure you know of them.
I have been working (hobby) on a verneuil inverted oxy-hydrogen blowpipe for the last couple of years and in order to make synthetic sapphires and rubies I must (long story).........................heat the very pure right micronage alumina or Al2O3 or Aluminium rust to X and through its cooling on a pedistal, i.e implosion thereby employing the necessary pressures required for corrundum crystals to form. etc etc etc etc ... stop dribbling Ray !.

Anyway I am assuming that these crystals must be made from AuO or Gold Oxide or Gold rust and that that rust should have to be in an incredibly pure form before compression or heated and implosion/cooling in an environment satisfactory as in the case of near all gems using the oxides of metals to meet that same end. Do you know if I am right Black Blade
?, is that how nature does it? , the only difference being the furnace chamber is the immm what do we call it ground
wise ..... Skull Melting ?

Because good nugget crystals (if one could call them that) are almost obscenely priceless. How do we know when we do see them that they have not been hand made somehow like this or indeed been through some form of electolisis ?. Oxidation in essence just applied heat apon the host, right electron tranfer rarara . Do you know a method to speed that right up for gold Black Blade?.

Synthetic gems leave spectum-wise tell tale fingerprints.
I am as curious as all hell if these gold crystals would ?.
Can this fool brain-storm ?. Assuming that indeed it is AuO
nature uses and it can be "the rust" homemade, once the raw material is acquired a few carbon rods shoved in a suitable refactory powder with the AuO at its centre might work huh , with the amps in short screaming there brain out and then gently wound back at a controlled rate to cool implode or create the right pressures concommitant with the process?.

USAGOLDToday's Gold Report: Election Year Finance: Deja Vu All Over Again#2819704/06/00; 09:47:32

The server will not allow me to post the Daily Market Report today. It appears here only. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Market Report (4/6/00): Gold was down in the early going with the downside being blamed on fund selling in London.
The markets are still trying to find their way after Tuesday's rocket ride. A large segment of the investing public loves the fact that the government, Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs bailed out the stock market, another more attuned group is beginning to mull the long term consequences of such action. It will be interesting to see what some of our top economists are going to say about all this. The left wing government interventionist types will applaud it; the free-marketeers will see it as dangerous tampering with elemental forces. Those that applaud it now may not understand that in the longer run, it could mean much deeper economic consequences far beyond a healthy portfolio adjustment.
If the intent of the market-riggers was to help the Clintonites for the 2000 elections, then we can expect a major, make that MAJOR, correction after the election is over. One is reminded of what occurred after the 1968, 1972, and 1976 elections. In each instance, the profligacy of the pre-election soft monetary policy (pump priming as we used to call it) led to highly inflationary economies right after the elections.
In the 1980s and 1990s inflationary episodes did not follow pre-election prime-pumping for two good reasons: One, the money printing wasn't as pervasive as it is today. Second, the oil producers (and Japan) were willing in essence to absorb our inflation rate and compensate with investments in our equity markets. Well, that's all changed. Then the markets were undervalued. Now they are overvalued in the extreme and Tuesday's bailout had to be the result of concerns that the foreign selling could turn into an avalanche. And as we all know the oil producers have taken it on themselves to run the oil price up and it now stands 250% higher than it was a year ago.
Alan Greenspan alluded to these concerns yesterday when he cautioned that the trade deficits could become a liability if foreigners abandoned our equity markets. "The significant uncertainties," warned the Fed chairman, "surrounding new economic forces counsel prudence." We concur. If this monetary build-up and the bail-outs continue, and we can indeed look forward to a major post election hyper-inflationary surge, 2000 might be a good year to accumulate gold, just as 1970 proved to be a good year to accumulate gold. In 1971 the United States initiated a series of formal devaluations that sent the American economy, and the equity markets, into a major, make that MAJOR tailspin -- a tailspin from which they did not recover for nearly a decade and a half.
That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

FarfelMarket Rigging and Moral Hazard on Wall Street#2819804/06/00; 10:10:33

Well, I'm happy today, I am making money.

That is because I am winning a nice bet I made with a relative about the market performance today.

You see, it does not take technical analysis or any unusually keen perception to predict the performance of the market today or tomorrow. At least, that is true once you come to grips with the true nature of todays American government and the manner in which it manages today's stock market, the engine of the economy.

With the Clinton goverment set to release unemployment stats tomorrow, then the usual pattern re-establishes itself.

These monthly stats always meet or surpass expectations, that has been the clearly established trend with this government's economic statistics. The only possible surprises occur on the upside, NEVER on the downside. Even on the 1% occasions where an obvious downside surprise occurs, then the Clinton spin machine goes into full blast, immediately creating a positive perception on a clear cut negative.

That is because both the US economy and the stock market today are MANAGED by this government and Wall Street, in a close approximation of the type of management practised by (former) communist regimes or the Japanese government of the Eighties. It is an illusion that we have a free capitalist system anymore. In fact, since most Americans (60%) now hold mutual funds and often the same packages of index stocks, then it is even an illusion that investing Americans are becoming wealthier. That is because if all "personal wealth boats" are rising at roughly the same pace, then everybody is actually standing still on a relative wealth basis.

Simply by extrapolation of historical trend, it is easy to state categorically that unemployments stats tomorrow will be positive, hence the usual pre-release maniacal run-up today, with yet another positive upside explosion tomorrow.

Moreover, it is imperative for Wall Street and the Clintonians to run the stock market up for the next few days, otherwise (see my previous post today) the negative multiplier effect resulting from the margin calls of Monday and Tuesday might not be neutralized in time. If not neutralized, then a much bigger crash would loom sometime down the road, maybe in another month or sometime later.

Meanwhile, once again, I advise forum members to avoid taking any contrarian bets on these markets. It is an exercise in futility. Since walking away from these chronically manipulated markets, I have experienced personally a much greater sense of inner calm.



FarfelFinal Point: Rigged Markets#2819904/06/00; 10:19:15

The other compelling reason for forum members to stop their contrarian bets on this market is this:

If the short sellers exit the market, then it can only rise on the back of new funds inflows, instead of short covering.

Well, it would be interesting to see how much longer market verticality can sustain itself in the absence of short covering. After all, new funds inflows cannot increase at a near exponential pace forever.



ZenideaSolomon Weaver. Black Blade . False 4 Ducat. All#2820004/06/00; 10:24:25

Well All, I am going to the farm for the weekend in the morning so I will see you in a few days unless someone wants to fly over and do post and rail fenceing hehe. What a fantastic week its been sharing, listening, and lurking with you colourful personalities. Re: 1927 - 1929 . I am unsure still, I really do hope that AG has learnt something.

Mr Solomon Weaver. Actually I said that tongue in cheek re:
sneaky shifty etc really. I know its the acts of the land that cause half the encumberances not the people, I just wish some of these seemly power merchants would use there discretionary powers more when the need arises. No-one, thing, authority whatever will ever be able to stoop low enough to get me to hate them, even the collusion crowd.
There was abit more to that yarn dear Sir , anyway its a humble plot , up in the hills , plenty of stars at night , Kookaburra's , red and white tailed black cockatoo's,
Kangaroos, but no deer here. Hope you get the scheme on!:).

Black Blade . Eureka ! Found rust ! Gold Oxide (111), Au2O3

False Mr 4Ducat. Ironhead may have just given you the wisest advice yet my friend. Hand the handle back, come in, listen, and learn with us. Regards All.

GaleariseBay, the bullion buying plan, thoughts a ponder#2820104/06/00; 10:53:00

I should say again, that last night's post about the 100 oz buys from COMEX was not my post.

I just emailed rhody, a poster on the Kitco forum with some thoughts on recent market events and thought they could also be shared on this forum....
I know you are thinking of persuing another good K weight gold ******* on eBay, bro, and it really looks like a good piece, but keep in mind what happened on Tuesday. It is now April and also the earliest time projection for the silver market to blow up! Think about 1) the stock market collapsing this month and/or 2) the metals taking off. Think of the potential affect on eBay both on the company and the seller participants. So here I go on Sunday and buy 40 oz from a bullion dealer. You in turn are bidding on an expensive ******* (and bullion, also), but how stable the transactions if all of a sudden, with your money on the way, silver or gold explodes for $10 to $20 respectively? Can you say default?

So an added worry until my bullion arrives(?). I will not do this again.

You might want to read USAGOLD for yesterday and today. There was quite the reaction to that repost I put on. Note, however, that the "plan" revealed is not that profound. All he is really saying is to buy physical and take delivery. This is not rocket science or any different in concept from what we have been doing and recommending in recent years. Whether one does it on Comex, or elsewhere, it amounts to the same thing on the supply end. The advantage to doing it on Comex is that G.S. et al has to react more directly to the pressure. But how many are in a position to interact directly with COMEX - as opposed to doing it by their habitual route? I made a comment about some of this to Solomon Weaver when he thought I was responsible for last nights post.

Peter AsherSummer Gas Forecast Cut to $1.46#2820204/06/00; 11:39:28

Could this report(Spin?) be part of today's recovery.

>>> Despite the traditionally heavy summer driving season, gasoline
prices should decline steadily between May and September, falling
to a national average of $1.39 cents after Labor Day, the agency
said in a revised short-term forecast.

The report was in sharp contrast to a forecast a month ago when the
agency said that even with increased oil production, gasoline prices
were expected to soar to a national average of as much as $1.80 a
gallon and likely reach $2 a gallon in some places by July. <<<<

4DucatHa,Ha,Ha#2820304/06/00; 11:44:28

You can use my name, but can you think up the wild inferences I come up with? What is the market going to do brainchild-1? Ver ist di cerebral content??? Let's make a can be 4Ducat from now on and I'll sign up as some one else. When your posts sound as ludicrously truthful as mine then you will have pulled it off. Until then your the one still standing on your head wiggling your toes and your economic analysis nobody knows. Is this live or memorex?
GalearisGood timing for this repost from Kitco....Ted Butler#2820404/06/00; 12:06:52

And I doubt that Ted is overstating with his $100/oz estimate. He is just factoring in inflation and the dollar value for the 1981 silver explosion.

Date: Thu Apr 06 2000 12:45
ted butler (Mooney@silver) ID#370209:
Copyright © 2000 ted butler/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Thanks for the post. You are half right about the silver manipulation. You won't get much argument from me on leasing's effect on the market, for obvious reasons. But, I think you underestimate the COMEX crooks' effect on the market. Let me restate the premise - in no other futures market, does the paper tail wag the real market dog like in silver. No other market. I'm sure you read my allegations of manipulation on the COMEX, that on 2/11, four or less traders were short one-third total annual world production. No other exchange would ever permit such a travesty. Not the Chicago Board of Trade, not the Chicago Merc, not any exchange. You read the NYMEX non-response. The CFTC is still hiding under their desks. It's been over six weeks, and those wimps can't respond.

If you allow the paper market to become bigger than the cash market, in violation of every principle of commodity law, the paper market will dictate price. The bigger market always does. That is what has happened in silver. It has not happened in any other market. It's really simple. Of course, if anyone could point out another market where the paper dwarfs the real market, then I'm wrong. But please, no LBMA crap, bona-fide numbers only. You might want to think of it this way. Paper contracts are derivatives. They are derived from the cash market. It is unnatural for a derivative to be larger than the underlying host market. That unnatural situation exists in COMEX silver and COMEX silver alone. Why? Silver's not the most manipulated market in the world for nothing. If the COMEX closed tomorrow, we would have $100 silver tomorrow.

Peter AsherOn my favorite Forum "Off subject" subject.#2820504/06/00; 12:12:29

I am pleased to finally see mainstream acknowledgment and agreement to the view of (Peter Asher (05/22/99; 16:29:17MDT - Msg ID:6620)

>>>> Much of what you (Julia (05/22/99; 15:53:07MDT - Msg ID:6619) ) posted about the goodness and heroics of those faced with a nightmare come to life is valid, however there is more afoot here then just the evil of two students. This very school was a few years back, the subject of an expose' on 'death education'. This macabre trend, part of the 'values neutral' conspiracy,(I am explicitly choosing that word in this case), along with the TV and Hollywood profiteering on violence fantasies, has created an apathy toward death among young people, for their own lives as well as the lives of others. <<<<

Bravo Patti Johnson
(And what a lame, juvenile rebuttal from the District spokesman)
Columbine caused by curriculum., board member charges

Scripps Howard News Service
April 06, 2000

DENVER - The Columbine High tragedy was caused in part by
a curriculum that overemphasizes death and doesn't teach
right from wrong, a Colorado state school board member said
in a recent speech.

"When all the kids' videos are about violence or sex, when
kids are allowed and even encouraged to make such videos,
what do you think is going to happen with some of these
kids?" board member Patti Johnson said Wednesday,
amplifying remarks she made in Cincinnati last week.

Her speech in Ohio was titled "The Real Killers at Columbine:
A Curricula Gone Bad."

Johnson said Colorado schools have too many teachers who
encourage students to question the values taught at home
and who push them to talk about death.

A spokesman for Jefferson County Schools disagreed. "The
bigger story is why a state board member is talking about
something she has no knowledge of," Rick Kaufman said.

"Patti joins a list of people across the country who are
exploiting the tragedy to their own personal or professional
gain," he said. "They talk about why they think the shooting
occurred, what motivated Eric and Dylan to do that, basing it
on what they read in the media."

Johnson is no stranger to controversy. She was the catalyst
last year behind a state board of education proclamation
that Ritalin and other prescription drugs shouldn't be used to
treat schoolchildren.

She said the drugs Eric Harris was taking before April 20 may
have played a part in the rage he and Dylan Klebold worked
up to commit the act.

Johnson also said discussions about suicide and death didn't
by themselves cause Harris and Klebold to kill 12 classmates
and a teacher before killing themselves.

But she said schools that don't teach absolutes of right and
wrong, that stress relative truths and that encourage
students to find their own values are playing a dangerous

"To Harris and Klebold, their decision was a rational one,"
she said.

Johnson points to a lifeboat scenario popular in some
classrooms, in which six or seven students decide which life
is most expendable _ the disabled person, the rich man, the
healthy doctor, the pregnant woman.

"Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold did their own lifeboat
scenario," Johnson said. "They didn't like blacks, jocks or

Johnson says teachers shouldn't put students into a position
to weigh the relative value of human life, because to her all
life is sacred. She maintains that when a suicide survivor
gives a talk, some students who never would contemplate
suicide become obsessed about it.

Kaufman said Johnson's contention isn't backed up by

"Certainly, discussions on death and suicide may be
appropriate in some venues," Kaufman said. "Particularly
because teen suicide is a topic of concern of educators and
students. From a prevention standpoint, discussion can help
people understand, absolutely."

Johnson puts part of the blame on cultural diversity units,
which she says too often are so negative that students
emerge distrustful.

"They say all this dirt was done to this group in the past _it
was always the white man who was evil," she said. "They
never point out how many people died trying to free the
slaves. They create more division and create more hate and

Kaufman said Johnson doesn't know enough about
Columbine to speak with authority about it.

"She was not at Columbine, she was not a part of curriculum
development," Kaufman said.

(Contact Bill Scanlon of the Denver Rocky Mountain News at

Peter AsherGalearis#2820604/06/00; 12:26:28

>>> It is unnatural for a derivative to be larger than the
underlying host market.<<<

Very good point! But then the derivatives are only betting slips really. It is the assumption that the derivative market is creditworthy, that allows it to dictate price. That is perhaps the most unnatural aspect of all.

MidEastGoldGreat Link to an INFLATION calculator#2820704/06/00; 14:52:44

I know that my private little revelation about the real value of money according to the CPI didn't generate a lot of discussion....especially since it wasn't as clear as I wanted it to be, but Im still in shock over INFLATION! Here is a great tool...plug in whatever values you want. Here is some values that really shocked me. $1000 in 1986 is $1501 today. Think about it. Try the year 1973...$1000 in 1973 is worth $3871 today.
4DucatDOW repeats Mid-Jan Top Pattern? Look, Leap or Cry#2820804/06/00; 15:21:37

I think Warren Buffet has to lease silver for the same reason Microsoft wants to keep Apple Computers give himself an alibi in case he is accused of running a monopoly.

We've seen some heavy selling of gold in NY after the open for the past three days. Interesting how the market is absorbing this selling so well. Who in their right mind would be shorting gold below 280? Probably this is the bottom and it's going into accumulation. Farfel said it how most investors already sold off their goldstocks for margin call fodder. I think buying gold is far from the average investor's mind. People evaluate the retracement based on last month's levels. Who is going to look at the 2 yr chart and draw the right line? Only the professionals. The amateur traders are setting themselves up for the same minicrash of a few days ago. The real test is if prices stair-step up and hold or does the Nasdaq spike up and selloff to the same base level. If we get a few days of rally failure with spikes selling off, with high upper shadow candles then it's headed down some more and the shorts will get very aggressive. The last bear-scare of last Oct., Schwab brokerage was down for three mornings, so nice of them to unplug everything to keep their clients from selling into the down market, smart actually. But it will happen next time too. Last time my internet connection went down in a nasty down day they told me a main Sprint cable was cut somewhere in Tenessee. Unplugging online traders enmasse seems to be an outlet for big investment house frustration. What should you do? Take every opportunity of the small rallies to unload stocks. Even if the market rallies, don't you think the big boys will be selling into it heavily? For this market to breakout into a new horizon it has to find buyers to absorb all the selling that will occur from people wanting out but affraid to sell now and take such a loss. Time going sideways is slow death at this point, because there is a pent up frustration of bulls underwater wanting to get out. People want it to go up to a higher level and baseout absorbing all the selling and then you have a stable Nasdaq. It can't happen easily. If it doesn't do that then a continued panic will ensue and we go into distress selling. Margin call round II until the pessimists rule and we start the serious decline. It may not do the 1000 pt 2 day DOW drop or the 800 pt Nasdaq plunge. What is the difference if it falls another 25% in a week or in 3 days? A bear market is food for goldbugs. Any slow buying on any stock will produce a high handle that is subject to a fast break way down. What you want to see are morning rallies and the price going flat all afternoon long. If you don't see that then get out while you still have a connection. Prices will not hold at these high levels unless real enthusiasm enters. But I have quality stocks??? Sure we have thousands of perfectly viable companies that will be dragged down from margin call selling as the junk really sinks. Then sucker's rallies lift them halfway back up then the next round of distress selling occurs and they go down again. Each successive rally is less than the last one so people are always trying to get out and there is a sad lack of buying. Lofty earnings projections are the norm in an overheated market such as this. So what happens when they do a Proctor & Gamble and miss numbers? They get killed.

No momentum?........that means no happiness for momentum investors who were used to buying into the rallies. They are becoming bottom fishers. Bottom fishers get impatient waiting for the fluke to bite. Pull up anchor, we're moving to a new location. They keep buying in and going underwater and selling and buying in and slowly moving to the Warren Buffet model a search for value.........after they realize the only value is in things real, commodities, then gold will have done its spike. Gold is the king of commodities. Looking at the charts though, silver seems to be more of a leader.

We generally believe that gold can always be manipulated down. This is not true. There is no way after gold becomes popular to short it back down. It will do a Palladium before they put price controls on it. It takes years of fighting gold to get it down so low. Low POG can only be kept down by having something else in the spotlight. Last liquidity crisis of '98 we saw stocks fall the same way. Biotech was last to rally and first to fall. WHAT is in the spotlight to draw investors in and give them security??? Nothing I see. Last week we saw a rally in natural gas and propane stocks. That's your equities agenda??? Oil exploration and gas utilities. WOW, a 1/4 pt gain every three days with a gas utility or throw your money at Jed Clampet with the shotgun for oil exploration. No I'll bottomfish at the goldbin. In gold I have very low risk with the opportunity to make 50% in like three days. I've got inversive volatility with a negative beta. Have a great day in gold. 68534e763

White RoseHow do we encourage a million investors to buy some silver?#2820904/06/00; 15:27:31

We should not be preaching to the choir. We need to get the idea of buying physical silver into the mainstream.

We need to plant articles in some obscure newspaper about silver investing. Then get // and //, etc. etc. pick it up.

Lets use the power of the web to get this out in the open.

By the way, I know some sources of silver that would get wiped out with just a few dozen buyers. How to we get enough silver to meet the intended demand?

ORORugen - Hostage Swiss Gold#2821004/06/00; 15:33:20

The Fed holds a "custodial" gold vault that has seen its content fall over the last two decades from 18000 tons to about 10000 tons (if memory serves right).

I have suspected that the US has been holding this gold "hostage" and releasing it slowly when they have to. This was, supposedly, the gold that was used in NYC for international bank settlements. Once the UK had lost all of its little remaining gold, there only remained Swiss gold and gold from the Axis nations and the conquered nations. This gold was "interned" for use as part of the dollar settlement system established at Bretton Woods. The Marshal plan was (in part) traded for silence on the issue of the return of this gold, so far as I can tell.

The gold is most probably being sold into the markets, as it had in the past, and repurchased by its original owners. The owners get a credit with the Federal Reserve who then buy treasuries from the bond markets for the gold seller's account. It seems that the only way to get your gold back is by buying it again. Super power as super thief and extortionist.

For the above you will find no official documentation. There were some grumblings 20+ years ago, but silence is the norm.

TownCrierNo matter where you are, there you are.#2821104/06/00; 15:37:42

On the eve of the election in Greece, this from a Reuters article setting the stage for what is on the voters' minds:

"A wild card is the stock market, which boomed last year amid much government glee, then turned tail sharply, leaving many unsophisticated small investors claiming they had been duped."

onlychildPerer Asher @ msg 28205#2821204/06/00; 15:52:26

Peter, do you have contact info for Patti Johnson? I'm in total agreement. Of course, not being a politician during an election year, she can speak the truth. Anyone running for office wouldn't dare blame it on anything but those bad old guns. They say it's good for capturing the female vote. You ladies can comment on that if you wish. OC
TownCrierToday's caution by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.#2821304/06/00; 16:19:14

Speaking today on "Realism during Times of Opportunity" at Widener University

"As you know, the current economic expansion is now the longest in our nation's history. ... Having said that, it is important to be mindful that now is the most important time for realism, prudence, and vigilance by both policymakers and the public at large. We should be mindful that generally good economic times can soften the impact of--and often mask totally--poor judgments. Eventually, however, those judgments will have detrimental consequences. Let me focus on three areas of realism that are required in this time of historic opportunity: the financial sector, individual decisions, and the international sphere."

1) Realism in the Financial Sector

"As you know, at the end of last year, the Congress passed and the President signed into law a bill to modernize the financial industry of the United States. This law, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, presents opportunities and challenges for the financial sector, which must be approached realistically and prudently. The most obvious opportunity for the financial sector now is one of ongoing consolidation and broadening--consolidation largely in continuing response to the end of legal constraints on geographical operations and broadening as financial institutions take advantage of the opportunities to expand lines of business offered by the act. The consolidation movement among banking organizations, of course, predates the passage of the most recent financial modernization law. In fact, it is reasonable to believe that the forces for consolidation and broadening were so strong that they provided an impetus for the repeal of Glass-Steagall, following a generation of effort not only by the Congress but also by financial institutions and regulators."

"The extent of consolidation and broadening remains in question, however, which gives rise to the second opportunity: the opportunity to deepen specialization. ... Another opportunity open to the financial sector is the continuation of the impressive trend toward globalization and international consolidation. ... Also, the emergence of the euro as a successful global currency, with the payments infrastructure, unified monetary policy, and converging fiscal policies that are associated with it, creates an attractive, large market. This is a market that U.S. firms have found, and will continue to find, hospitable and in which European cross-border mergers will, no doubt, continue. And, of course, the deepening of technology capabilities in most financial institutions means that management on a global scale, particularly risk management, is now feasible as well as necessary.
This dynamic presents many challenges. ... While in general the early experience in large, cross-industry consolidation appears to be successful, we have not yet had the test of a slowing economy. Until we have gone through a full business cycle, it is hard to know how strong the business case for integration truly is."

[Take not of this paragraph...]
"Second, we must be cautious in assuming that more-diversified and larger firms are inherently less risky. One of the ongoing challenges in the emerging world of high-tech finance is risk management. The experiences of the last two-and-one-half years indicate that the speed of market movements, combined with the scale of financial endeavor, can lead to a rapid reversal of fortune for even the most sophisticated market participants. Models are inherently backward-looking, and even the best of them have not proven to be foolproof in sounding the alarm for newer risks. There is evidence that banking organizations, and probably financial institutions more generally, will use the benefits gained from diversification to increase the risk in the individual components of their portfolios. Indeed, some activities now permissible in financial organizations, such as merchant banking, have high average returns, but those returns mask a wide variance in result, with some outcomes quite detrimental to profits and potentially to organizational vitality."

"I hope that bank managers are keenly aware of the risk profiles of their companies and are not inclined to take additional risks to hit earnings targets. Banks are clearly trying to diversify their earnings streams. They will need to monitor carefully the performance of newer products developed and marketed during the 1990s in response to broad consumer needs. While we have enjoyed record expansion, the prospects for a business and an economic downturn must be factored into pricing decisions. Credit and underwriting decisions should take into account realistic downside sensitivity analysis."

[Take note of section 2 in its entirety...]
2) Prudence in Individual Investment and Borrowing Decisions

"However, financial institutions are not the only economic actors who need to maintain realistic expectations and to exercise prudence and caution during this period. Individuals must exercise ongoing vigilance in their personal financial behavior. In particular, individuals should recognize that in this era of technology-induced growth, high growth goes hand in hand with high uncertainty and, for newer companies, volatility in their financial performance. This means that accurately valuing a company in the high-growth industries is dauntingly complex. Therefore, individual investors are best advised to consider a range of scenarios, including not just the rosy outcome of possible success but also the very real one of potential failure. History clearly demonstrates that for every successful start-up the vast majority find success elusive.

"Individuals would also be well advised to consider a range of personal financial scenarios. Perhaps based on expectations of solid income growth, which we all hope will be borne out, households have increased their debt faster than their disposable personal income in every quarter over the past five years. Despite increased borrowing, however, the household debt service burden, as conventionally measured to include consumer and mortgage debt, remains below the levels reached in the 1980s. This burden has been held down in recent years by falling interest rates and a shift toward longer maturity mortgage debt. Nonetheless, even in good economic times it is prudent for households to be prepared for a range of outcomes, not just the most optimistic ones."

3) Caution in the Global Economy

"While being cautious, let me not convey a pessimistic tone, because I believe that the four major forces currently driving the domestic economy could well provide the underpinning for a new era of prosperity in the global economy. ... [a)] technology ... [b)] business deregulation ... [c)] more prudent fiscal policy ... [and d)] The final major change was the reduction of both actual inflation and the expectation of inflation as a necessary component of personal and business decisionmaking. This trend began during the early 1980s, and it has reached the point of fruition only in the past few years. Relatively stable prices have allowed businesses and households to plan their economic affairs with a general expectation that the value of investments will not be eroded through a pernicious increase in the general price level. Indeed, price level stability has reinforced the impetus provided by deregulation for businesses to manage their affairs with a priority on efficiency. These developments are not unique to the United States."

"Additionally, much of the industrialized world has governments following a path of smaller deficits and eventually smaller debt. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty, laying the groundwork for the unification of much of Europe into a single market with its own currency--the euro--is the most obvious but not the only example of this trend. Finally, the emerging consensus among politicians, policymakers, and the general public in many nations is that any benefits of inflation are at best ephemeral and that inflation ultimately is highly destructive."

"However, achieving sustained global growth requires certain improvements. ... a global economy built around higher levels of technology and greater competition in markets for goods, services, and labor input will nevertheless also include persons or regions who by fortune or skill are not fully prepared to participate in a world economy."


"In concluding, let me reiterate that the prosperity now experienced by the United States, and potentially to be shared by the rest of the world, is certainly a welcome development. It is clearly the goal of the Federal Reserve to follow policies that will help extend this prosperity for as long as possible. However, it is also important for the financial sector and other members of the private sector here in the United States, and for market participants, banks, and regulators in other countries, to remain vigilant if this expansion is to continue here and to spread globally. We are in the midst of a period of enormous opportunity, one that can be extended and strengthened if we are realistic, remaining mindful of our obligations to act responsibly, both individually and collectively.
***"In this context, for managers in the financial sector acting responsibly includes recognizing that not all financial institutions can successfully consolidate or profitably take advantage of every new power. For individuals, personal financial decisions--both investment and borrowing--should take into consideration the possibility that the most optimistic expectations of corporate or personal financial success might not come true."***

John DoeRE: market manipulation#2821404/06/00; 16:29:04

Market manipulation is merely the logical extension of Keynesian (pseudo) economics, which is itself the self-justifying rationalisation of the current monetary system that cannot be rationalised because it is a structure lacking a meaningful foundation (to wit, gold). This administration and its central bank behave with all Keynesian proclivities intact.

Keynesians manipulate the money supply, not for reasons of economic fundamentals, but for aligning "perceptions" that will "cause" people to save, borrow, invest, and/or spend. Likewise, the markets now get the same treatment for much the same reasons. Under Keynes, no real mention is ever made as to why people decided (or were driven) to cease saving, borrowing, investing, or spending. That's because these normal, economically rational activities are abandoned because of the previous cycle of central bank boom/bust and Keynesian manipulations.

Keynesians are money supply and market managers, or, more directly "economic planners". Socialists, too, are (famously ineffective) "economic planners", never minding the fact that the no economy can be adequately "planned" in any sense of the word. Therefore, Keynsians are Socialists. In fact, the entire global monetary system (at least since 1973) is Socialist. In fact, plank #5 of the ten planks of Marx's Communist Manifesto explicitly calls for a central bank in order to achieve the desired "ends":

"5. Centralization of credit in the hands of the State, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly." Karl Marx

This describes every central bank on the planet. And since, under Global Socialism, the State must create credit and "capital" on demand, gold must go and stay gone.

Forget all this baloney about the triumph of Global Capitalism. The Socialists won -- the proof is all around us in the many manipulations in many markets becoming more and more apparent with each passing day. And the derivatives contract is the New-Socialists’ Magic Elixir. Unfortunately, sadly, and much to the oblivion of most participants, the result of every Socialist "victory" is the total destruction of the very object of their ministrations.

Galearisa response from RHODY - perhaps of interest to the forum#2821504/06/00; 16:30:56

It's an interesting email, and I don't think he will mind me sharing it. I will also continue to pester him to join the discussion in a less vicarious fashion.
Dear Bro:
I am aware that there is a possibility that gold could explode, but I think not for a while yet. I am now thinking that it will be another long cold summer for gold bugs, as the CABAL seems to have infinite resources to hammer gold back down under 290. They are not using leased gold to do it either. So someone out there in the official sector has very deep pockets and a willingness to sell. This must be the US Treasury. With a 2500 tonne deficit, they can sell for the next 3 years to maintain the buying power of the USD. Three years of using the national gold reserve to finance a fiscal deficit of 300 billion per year means they yield $3730 per oz for their sold off gold assuming they sell 7500 tonnes of their total 8300 tonnes. If you think of it this way, that they are buying time with their gold, and hence are able to finance the 300 billion current account deficit in exchange for holding down gold, then the return benefit to Americans is still almost $4000 per oz. This implies that this may be the upper limit of any gold spike.

So I don't think near term that gold will spike, and that in the next two weeks it will be safe to buy a gold articles on eBay. The PPT held the market last Tues, and that means they can do it again, and again, and that means that this market will go into a slow grinding bear similar to the 1970's and that means we still have a few months until inflation really destabilizes the gold market. It took years after 1971 for gold to peak out, and it will this time. A slow, grinding bear (stagflation) is the best environment for gold. I further think that just as solid gold pens and pencils are becoming extremely collectible now, so will other collectibles. The parallels are striking, yet the market has not picked up that much.

If a silver pencil with 50c worth of silver brings several hundred dollars on the collectors market, and a gold pen, several thousand, how much will a gold pendent, for example, with one oz of gold in it bring, with gold at $2000 per oz? Even the little gold filled items will be quite valuable. Yeah, the eBay sellers could default in a spike, but dead cat bounces have been so common over the past three years, why would a seller react by defaulting? My biggest worry is going into the eBay doldrums of the summer, and seeing all this cheap gold going for peanuts, and not having any cash to buy, because I do think this bear will hold into the fall.

October crash anyone?

Perhaps someday he will move away from all those daytrader types over on Kitco.

SteveHProtecting gold#2821604/06/00; 16:32:27


Gun Control Has Proven Record of Effectiveness
Reader commentary by John J. McNight of Weaverville, NC

In 1929, the Soviet Union established gun control From 1929 to 1953, approximately 20 million dissidents, unable to defend themselves,
were rounded up and exterminated.

In 1911, Turkey established gun control. From 1915 to 1917, 1.5 million Armenians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and

In 1928, Germany established gun control. From 1939 to 1945, 13 million Jews, gypsies, homosexuals, the mentally ill, and others, who
were unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

In 1935, China established gun control. From 1948 to 1952, 20 million political dissidents were unable to defend themselves and were
rounded up and exterminated.

In 1964, Guatemala established gun control. From 1964 to 1981, 100,000 Mayan Indians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up
and exterminated.

In 1970, Uganda established gun control. From 1971 to 1979, 300,000 Christians, unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and

In 1956, Cambodia established gun control. From 1975 to 1977, one million "educated" people, unable to defend themselves, were
rounded up and exterminated.

That places total victims who lost their lives because of gun control at approximately 56 million in the last century. Since we should learn
from the mistakes of history, the next time someone talks in favor of gun control, find out which group of citizens they wish to have

Galearis@Peter Asher, your 12:28#2821704/06/00; 16:36:03

Of course I agree. I also particularly like Ted's talent for understating the situation. (smile)
HI - HATMid East Gold 28207 Inflation#2821804/06/00; 16:43:48

Believe it that everybody here is taking a hard look at the inflation theme your putting on the table. Inflation watching is a tricky business as cost of some items keep levitating while others do not.

Trail Guide has noted that serious inflation in the last couple of years has found an outlet in stratospheric stock evaluations. The other side of the coin is the sad, sad prices recieved for raw farm products, and mining as well, that are the same or in some cases even less than before WW2 Wages themselves have stagnated for well over 20 years. I tell you one thing I have definetly seen a real up move in grocery items in the last 90 days. Once the dollar really starts going south, with as much imports that this country MUST take in, we are going to have a wild ride up in prices of about everything and mass psychology is going to go into a 1970's mode.Markets always anticipate, so gold and silver should start swinging for the fences when the dollar breaks.

onlychildSteve H @ msg 28216#2821904/06/00; 16:51:23

Steve, I know it was a century earlier, but I would like to mention the indian removal act of 1829 for those who don't believe that our fine goverment could ever be capable of such exterminations. What do you suppose Colonel Custer was famous for after the civil war? OC
HI - HATCavan Man#2822004/06/00; 16:55:39

Why in hell are you being hard on yourself. I think the statistic is that only one person in a thousand is recognizing the wealth value and accumulating gold. You are among the intelligent elite. Stand up and move to the head of the CLASS.
TownCrierNotable excerpts...Mr. McDonough is far more cautionary than Vice Chair Ferguson#2822104/06/00; 17:07:20

Remarks by NY Fed President William J. McDonough before the 106th Annual Convention and Financial Services Forum of the NY State Bankers Association, April 6, 2000

I am pleased to be with you today to discuss the new world that bankers and bank supervisors alike face in the wake of historic financial reform and continuing technological and financial innovation. Clearly, these are exciting, heady times. ... Simply put, most people in our country have never had it so good. And yet even as we celebrate our good fortune, we must bear in mind that this very prosperity exposes the seemingly unstoppable U.S. economy to certain very real risks.

Today I would like to discuss the important issue of maintaining sound lending practices at this critical juncture in the extraordinary economic cycle we are enjoying. I'll also ... conclude with an update on the effort to revise the Basel Capital Accord.

Our prosperity is the envy of the world, and our economic model is acknowledged everywhere to be one that works. It's not perfect, nor is it applicable in every detail to countries with different histories, cultures and values. Still, it is clear that in the longer run the market is better at allocating scarce resources than any version of a command economy.

Without an effectively functioning banking system for encouraging, collecting and deploying society's savings in a fair and impartial way into productive investments, there would be little hope for our economy, or any other, to mobilize the real resources necessary for economic growth and stability.
With this in mind, one of my major concerns going forward is the quality of bank lending. Banks are now at a critical phase in the credit cycle. After years of high quarterly profits, low delinquency rates and comfortable capital ratios, it is easy to forget the fundamentals of sound lending. And, as any good coach will tell you, it's the fundamentals, the basics, that make or break your performance.
The most important of the fundamentals is maintaining rigorous credit standards, especially in an environment of increased competition for new and existing customers. Experience teaches us that the worst loans are often made in the best of times. And because things are awfully good at the moment, I can't help but remind bankers and supervisors alike that the sun doesn't always shine so brightly. Indeed, sometimes it even rains. To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the business cycle's demise are greatly exaggerated.
In circumstances this favorable, loan officers must make doubly certain that there is every reason to believe that the loans they make are collectible. This is especially important for younger bankers who, given the length of this expansion, have never experienced a serious recession and may mistakenly view current conditions as ordinary rather than as exceptional. Lending granted on that erroneous basis would have grave consequences for the industry's ability to weather weaker economic conditions which are, to be sure, inevitable.
From a supervisory perspective, I believe it is time for us to exercise an extra measure of caution. of several significant challenges banks currently face ... is that the spectacular rise in equity values and mutual funds has put competitive pressure on the core deposit base. As these lower-cost funds have been replaced with funding from the capital markets, principally commercial paper, pressures on interest margins and liquidity have intensified. Such funding shifts raise the important risk-management questions of how well institutions will function under stressful conditions, and whether enough has been done to maintain adequate liquidity. The decline in stable core deposits has also been coupled with a steady rise in average loan maturities, indicating a growing exposure to liquidity and interest rate risk.

[TownCrier note: with that having been said, it seems appropriate to interject some related material so you will better understand what he is talking about and how all of this info ties together. Today, the Fed had to provide additional reserves to the banking system...using overnight repurchase agreements totaling $1.28 billion dollars. Now, back to McDonough...]

While banks perform functions that are indispensable to the success of any market economy, these same functions, by their very nature, introduce risks that are capable of undermining the prospects for such success. This reality was acknowledged by Adam Smith over two centuries ago in his seminal tract The Wealth of Nations. It is with this fundamental reality in mind that governments have long recognized that banking and other financial institutions must be subject to some form of regulation and official oversight.

Revision of the 1988 Basel Accord

Let me move on to the Basel Committee's major initiative to revise the Capital Accord. The primary tool of capital regulation currently is the set of minimum ratios that were devised in 1988 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which I have the honor to chair. Without question, the Accord was a milestone achievement – for the first time, supervisors in G-10 countries were able to use a common yardstick for assessing banks’ capital adequacy.

But the Accord has a number of serious shortcomings. It does not adequately differentiate among degrees of credit risk and, as a result, banks have had incentives to take on higher risk exposures within broad risk categories. Banks have also tended to engage in transactions that lower regulatory capital requirements without reducing economic risk. For example, through asset securitization a bank may physically transfer assets off its balance sheet, but still retain some or even all of the associated risk.

In June of last year, the Basel Committee released a Consultative Paper laying out its vision for a new, more refined capital adequacy framework – one that more accurately distinguishes degrees of credit risk, and that is appropriate for banks of varying levels of sophistication. The Consultative Paper represents an evolution in the Committee's approach to capital adequacy because, in addition to establishing minimum capital requirements, it places increased emphasis on the supervisory review of capital adequacy and the role of market discipline.

The Committee also is addressing what some observers have noted is the potential for introducing greater cyclicality via a more risk-sensitive capital framework. That is, the capital requirements for loans to troubled borrowers will tend to increase at just the point when such trouble is becoming apparent. This is an important point, and one that must be given serious consideration. It is my view that the global financial system needs to move toward addressing potential credit problems preemptively – before these problems have time to grow from minor disturbances to major disruptions. A more risk-sensitive capital framework should help ensure that banks hold appropriate capital behind high-risk credits in the first place, and thus reduce the cyclical tendency for retrenchment that often follows problems with such loans.

MarkeTalkUSA Today and Internet Stocks#2822204/06/00; 17:07:36

While having lunch today here at Centennial, I picked up a copy of today's USA Today newspaper. Front page, left hand column, lead story is about Internet execs who fortuitously unloaded large positions of their company's stock near the peak in February before this week's smash. Lead article in the "Money" section was about C. Everett Koop, Chairman of, who raked in $3 million by selling out at $9.00/share. The stock now sells for about $2.70/share. I always thought that stock was overvalued from its IPO. Apparently, so did he. Which brings me back to the old saw: The house made money, the broker made money; two out of three ain't bad.
But what really got my attention was two articles in this section. The first was about high tech workers whose future and fortune are tied to stock options. Talk about nervous nellies because they have bought expensive homes--well beyond what they should be buying--based on the growth in value (and expectation of continued growth) of their stock options. Then in just one day, reality breaks into their lives and their options are down 50%.
The second article (on page 3B) by David Henry was by far the most illuminating, in my opinion. This one really puts its finger on the pulse of this whole casino-like market. Mr. Henry compared the price action of JDS Uniphase, a high tech flier, with soybeans and found a 97% correlation. He quotes Bill Noble, a veteran of Chicago's futures markets, who summed it up by saying: "All that happened since October is that commodities trading has reinvented itself. JDSU. RMBS (Rambus), VIGN (Vignette), VRSN (VeriSign) and all the rest are just white-collar pork belly contracts." But you already knew that, all you posters and lurkers!

Peter Asheronlychild (04/06/00; 15:52:26MDT - Msg ID:28212)#2822304/06/00; 18:05:36

No, just found the news article, but there was the contact for the journalist.

(Contact Bill Scanlon of the Denver Rocky Mountain News at

HI - HATRHODY#2822404/06/00; 18:44:17

Sure would be nice if you posted over here.
Cavan ManGalearis#2822504/06/00; 19:39:44

That's an interesting thought from your friend. Makes some sense. When the official gold runs out of the official vaults, then, confiscate because, gold WILL ALWAYS be needed in those official vaults. There's lots of gold accumulating in this country since 1973. After all, the gold IS here in the country. Legislation and/or executive orders are formality. I think our host is right about confiscation.

Friends of gold in high places; PUT A STAKE IN THE GROUND. Enrich yourselves and your constituents. Come to the aid of the international monetary system. Lastly, free gold.

FarfelRe: Rhody's Letter (msg 28215) The Power of the PPT.#2822604/06/00; 19:50:15

When Rhody states that the PPT can maintain the excessively high equilibrium in today's stock market plus the unusally low gold price for many more years, then I must disagree.

Keep in mind that Tuesday's "controlled" market fiasco occurred in the midst of a completely uneventful day in the political affairs, markets, and economy of America. Although some would say that the Microsoft decision acted as a trigger, nonetheless it would be difficult to describe that as "a terrifying left field event."

Does Rhody really believe that the PPT can be so effective if some left field event arises that strikes genuine fear into the hearts of Americans and other foreigners?

Essentially, it appears the key to the PPT's effectiveness is an US environment of calm and plenty. It is certainly much easier to reassure investors to re-enter a plunging market when they look out the window and see sunshine and prosperity. But it is a much more difficult task when they know first hand of real trouble developing in their lives.

If tomorrow, just for example, the imported oil were to be shut off and Americans were slapped directly in the face with adversity, then how effective would a PPT be in such truly adverse circumstances? Would calming words from Clinton economic spokesman Gene Sperling suffice to bring buyers back into the marketplace if, just for example, a hostile confrontation arose between America and China, resulting in key good shortages in America (China manufactures a huge percentage of American imports).

My point is this: when Rhody imagines the PPT as some kind of omnipotent force capable of fixing markets for many years, he must recognize that at any moment, there might be a long overdue left field event that can subvert their best efforts.

If a genuine scare arises with international ramifications...and if foreign nations view the stability of the US Dollar, economy, and markets as endangered...then I believe the clamor for gold would be astronomical. The disgorgement of Western Central Bank gold would probably end on the spin of a dime. In such tumult, the Central banks would NEED a nation-neutral medium of exchange with its own intrinsic value, and would clamor to replace US dollars with it.

From my perspective, pressures keep building all over the world that increase the likelihood of such a left field event transpiring sooner than one might think.



Cavan ManConfiscation#2822704/06/00; 19:55:06

For those new and old to this forum and the subject of gold ownership......

The US Government by Executive Order of FDR (admittedly, the right man in the right place at the right time) in 1933 confiscated the gold of all US citizens. It WAS ILLEGAL to own gold from 1933-1975; A PERIOD OF 42 YEARS.

Penalties for non-compliance were $10K fine and/or ten years in jail (in 1933 dollars and context). Exempted were coins minted prior to 1934.

For those who have no interest in history, I maintain it is a general outline for events yet to be.

Cavan ManCavan Man 28227#2822804/06/00; 19:56:38

Think about it. It was illegal to own gold.
TownCrierNotable excerpts of transcript from ECB's announcement of results from the 3/30 meeting of the Governing Council#2822904/06/00; 20:00:46

Remarks of Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank:

I should like to take the opportunity of this special meeting to take stock of where we stand 15months after the start of Monetary Union. In January 1999 the euro was successfully launched as the single currency for 11 Member States of the EU. As a result of very careful conceptual and technical preparations, both the monetary policy-making process and the implementation of monetary policy have functioned efficiently right from the start.
The challenges involved in setting up a central bank for a currency area as large as the euro area have been enormous.
From the start, we had extremely productive and open discussions in the Governing Council on monetary policy issues. In this respect, our monetary policy strategy has provided a very useful framework within which to organise our thinking. In our discussions there has always been a clear understanding, based on the Treaty, that the single monetary policy can only focus on maintaining price stability in the euro area as a whole. This is based on the simple fact that in a monetary union, there is only one monetary policy, and this must be directed to a single objective. As laid down in the Treaty, each member of the Governing Council is therefore well aware that he or she is not a representative of a country or central bank but acts in a personal capacity in deciding the appropriate conduct of monetary policy for the euro area as a whole.

[The above gives a good view of the semi-fluid nature of policy and implementation]

The experience of all larger currency areas shows that some differences in regional price developments and also in regional output growth may exist.
As differences in national or regional developments cannot be addressed by the Eurosystem, they require, whenever necessary, country-specific responses. This means, in particular, responsible national wage settlements and appropriate national fiscal policies aimed at counteracting specific national problems. In addition, reforms addressing rigidities in labour and product markets and aiming at enhancing labour and capital mobility are the tools to ensure that market mechanisms will play an increasingly important role in limiting the scope for divergent developments in the euro area.
Let me now give the floor to the Vice-President [Christian Noyer] to present some of the additional topics discussed today by the Governing Council.

I should like to draw your attention to the following two items: first, the international financial architecture, an issue which was discussed in preparation for the forthcoming IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., and, second, the ECB's information campaign for the introduction of the euro banknotes and coins.

The Eurosystem actively supports those efforts made by various institutions and fora... to enhance transparency and to improve the soundness both of financial systems and of regulatory and supervisory frameworks.

Owing to the fact that unsustainable exchange rate regimes were a factor behind financial crises of previous years, recent discussions have focused in particular on the choice of appropriate exchange rate arrangements. The Governing Council is of the view that such a choice should not be confined to alternative solutions of either a hard peg or free floating. Intermediate regimes, such as adjustable pegs, may suit the needs of emerging market economies, depending on their specific domestic and external conditions.

Refocusing the role of the IMF has been central to most recent reform proposals. The Governing Council is of the view that strengthening the key responsibilities of the IMF, namely further enhancing its credibility as a policy adviser and provider of financial assistance to members facing a loss of market confidence, will make an important contribution to international monetary stability.

Second, the Governing Council approved the overall framework for the EURO 2002 information campaign- a Europe-wide campaign intended to familiarise citizens with the euro banknotes and coins.
The main objectives of the campaign are to help citizens:

** to recognise the euro banknotes and coins and, in particular, their security features,
**to familiarise themselves with the different (and, in many cases, new) denominations of the euro banknotes and coins, and
**to inform themselves about the means by which the euro banknotes and coins will be introduced on 1January 2002.

We are now at your disposal, should you have any questions.

Question: You spoke about the role the national governments have to play in the strategy of keeping inflation down. The Irish Finance Minister maintains that Ireland's level of inflation gives no cause for concern and that his Government is doing all that is necessary for it not to become a problem. What do you think?
Duisenberg: I think the Irish Finance Minister cannot say anything but what he said. A fact is, of course, that differentials in price increases across a large currency area are not abnormal. In a study we have recently published in our ECB Monthly Bulletin, we came to the conclusion that differentials in the euro area were, to our own surprise, even smaller than the differentials you see between some 25 cities in the United States. Still, I do maintain that the problem Ireland faces in having a substantially higher rate of inflation than the euro area-wide rate of inflation is a problem that has to be addressed. It will be addressed, I am sure, by the Irish Government, and by the Irish Government alone.

Question (translation): This is another question for you, sir - more or less along the lines of the last one. You said in your introductory remarks that the countries with a higher inflation rate within the euro area should have their own special monetary policies as well as structural reforms. Now, since in Spain we have a high rate of inflation of 3%, do you think that the current policies are the right ones for Spain?
Duisenberg: Sorry, I did not say that they should have their own monetary policy. You see, we have only one monetary policy in the euro area. But they have their own fiscal policies and wage policies as well as structural reform policies, and those are policy areas which have to be addressed by the national governments, and by the social partners, I am inclined to say. But the European Central Bank and all of the Eurosystem can and will do nothing about that.

[TownCrier note: hold onto your socks for the next post. It points up a stark issue that perhaps you hadn't considered about dollars currently held in reserves...whereby central banks are now suddenly overweighted in the US dollar as a result of the EMU.]

LexCAVEN MAN ON "CONFISCATION"#2823004/06/00; 20:08:41

On the issue of confiscation of gold -- FDR in 1933 that you were talking about; do you know if silver was also confiscated? Also, do you think it will happen again in a currency collapse? If you believe it's going to happen again this raises the debate of bullion coins versus pre 1933 gold coins and the question of the pre '33 coins being exempted again. What do you think? And do you think silver ownership will be outlawed too?
TownCrierContinuing from the ECB Question and Answer session, this one's a good perspective builder#2823104/06/00; 20:12:22

Question (translation):
I have three questions, but, of course, they are interrelated. The first question is this: Spain, Italy and so on used to have major reserves in foreign currency in their national central banks, especially as far as Deutsche Mark and Dutch guilder were concerned. But obviously, it does not make any sense to keep these anymore. When were they changed and how were they changed? Can you tell us? The other question is: the other national central banks around the world currently hold a certain percentage of their foreign exchange reserves in euro. To what extent do you think this percentage will increase in the next five years? And what do you say about profits? The Federal Republic of Germany used to receive profits from the Deutsche Bundesbank. How do you think this will increase, for example, for Germany or for the Spanish central bank in the next, say, five years?

Where have the banknotes gone which used to be held by other euro area central banks? I suppose they have gone back to their home country in the meantime. And what will happen to the profits? I cannot say. We do not know how profits will develop. What we do know is that in the Eurosystem we have agreed on accounting rules which, over time, will substantially change annual developments in profits, and that, for example, we now include unrealised valuation losses in foreign exchange reserves directly in the profit and loss account, whereas in the past it was usually written off against some valuation reserve in the balance sheet of the banks.

As far as the euro's share in foreign exchange reserves in the world outside the euro area is concerned, I expect it to develop over time. But, of course, you have to realise that we have been exposed to a certain shock as a result of the creation of the euro area itself.

Before the introduction of the euro, the distribution of world reserves over various currencies was - and I am giving very rough figures now - about 60% US dollars, about something like 25% Deutsche Mark and around 5% Japanese yen, with the remaining 10% being shared by a variety of currencies, including Swiss francs, French francs, Dutch guilders and special drawing rights of the IMF. With the transition to the euro, the reserves of the euro area countries were, in some instances, held in US dollars and Deutsche Mark - in my own country, the Netherlands, for example, we held 50% of the foreign reserves in US dollars, 50% in Deutsche Mark.

And overnight, the 50% Deutsche Mark had become domestic assets rather than foreign assets. So that phenomenon caused an immediate change in the world currency distribution of reserves. Because of the falling-out of the intra-euro area holdings of European currency reserves, it caused the euro share of international reserves to fall immediately.

And now it is growing again. So, we are now in a situation where between 70 and 80% of the world reserves are held in US dollars and around 15 to 20% in euro. I expect the same trend to develop that we have observed over the past 25 years, namely a gradual decline in the share of the US dollar and a gradual increase in the share of the euro. I expect that trend to continue. But it is a long-term process.

[T.C. note: Or maybe not.]

TownCrierSir Lex on silver confiscation#2823204/06/00; 20:26:40

"do you know if silver was also confiscated? Also, do you think it will happen again in a currency collapse? If you believe it's going to happen again this raises the debate of bullion coins versus pre 1933 gold coins and the question of the pre '33 coins being exempted again. What do you think?"

To be sure, silver was not confiscated. Circulating small change (dimes, quarters, half-dollars, dollars) was silver and continued until 1965.

I sure do not want to stifle any debate on the likelihood of future gold confiscation with my following response. In fact, I would enjoy to see the various thoughts. My own thought on the matter, however, is that with the premium on the pre-33 coins European coins currently comparable with the similar-sized fractional ounce bullion coins, why take chances? Besides, with the pre-33's you get a much more fascinating coin to admire and muse over its history...if you enjoy that sort of thing. Plus, they lend themselves to handling, and passing around for your friends and family to admire. They were designed to be for circulation, after all.

Cavan ManSir Town Crier#2823304/06/00; 20:56:05

Thank you for your running exposition of articles on the EC. I read each post carefully. I am drawn to the conclusion that our friend TG/FOA is hitting very close to the mark. The strategy or "the game" as TG would say is quite clear. Whether or not the execution and implementation will follow through is a very different matter.

My thought is success will be hard fought and eventually won because of necessity. You have to look beyond the deficiencies in the social, political and economic structure of the EC (mind you now, by american standards). Sure, they may appear as a collection of quasi-socialist nation states with high levels of citizen dependency on government and low levels of American "know how". Maybe that's not so bad. Maybe they're in their timing is impeccable if only for awhile. Know what I mean?

TownCrierA post to the forum for the permanent record...#2823404/06/00; 20:59:55

It is that time of the year again...the European Central Bank's quarterly revaluation of its total gold assets. They can't exactly be well-pleased with the adjustment this term, essentially flatlined from the previous valuation.

Total ECB gold assets on the weekly balance sheet fell by 269 million euros to 115.676 billion euros for March 31.

On paper, net foreign exchange reserves climbed by 12.5 billion euros to 266.5 billion euros.

TownCrierSir Cavan Man: Mostly, I like their sense of humor...#2823504/06/00; 21:06:34

Mr. Duisenberg, Mr. Noyer, why do you think that the international financial markets continue not to acknowledge what you call the fair value of the euro in the light of robust growth in Europe?

I am very happy that the question was put both to Mr. Noyer and to me, ... because I do not know.

Could I say the same? With one voice? [a reference to concerns that the ECB should "speak with one voice".]

onlychildCavan Man @ msg 28227#2823604/06/00; 21:08:21

Cavan Man, one clarification to the exemption of pre-'33 gold coins: they had to be numismatic grade "lawful money" coins. I don't use the words "legal tender" because a legal tender referred to fiat currency insomuch as it tends to perfoming the same function as lawful money (gold & silver). All of the coins from our host are MS-60 or higher, so they are in the exempted class. OC
LexTowncrier on confiscation#2823704/06/00; 21:08:57

Towncrier, thanks for your response. I have two concerns on the pre '33 gold coins:
(a) you get less actual metal content for the
money as opposed to bullion coins like the
Eagle, Maple leaf, Philharmoinc, etc. etc.
A rough estimate is about 2 and half times
more gold content for the buck, bullion vs.
pre-1933, if accumulation of physical gold
is the objective.

(b) the pre '33 coins are difficult to find in
high MS and take longer to accumulate with
fewer options to acquire them

However, if bullion coins were confiscated in a collapse (or trading with them was outlawed) and the pre'33 coins were exempted, my argument goes in the toilet. My gut instint is that if it ever gets that bad even pre'33 items would not be exempted. A simple stroke of the pen with an Executive Order could modify FDR's old gold act to emcompass everything.
Would love to hear any counterpoint from anyone, as I'm in the early stages of accumulation, trying to carefully weigh all my options and protect my family.

beestingA talk with George.#2823804/06/00; 21:28:28

I get to meet the public in my type of work/hobby and one of the more interesting persons I get to see about every week is a friend I'll call George. George is American and retired with full pension from the U.S. military, several years ago. After retirement from the military he worked for the Government of Saudi Arabia in Saudi Arabia at a supervisory level for 12 years. From those days till now he spends a lot of his free time traveling and seeing the world first hand.His wife is English.

Todays talk:

Me: I just drove to Chico(California) and saw unleaded regular gas for $2.02 per gallon.

George: Yup!

Me: You were in the Mid East, don't those oil producers want Gold instead of dollars for their oil?

George: Yes,all the high finance withen the Mid East is transacted in Gold. Arabs trust only Gold as real money.

Me: Why aren't the oil producers driving the price of Gold up by buying it with their dollars they've gotten for the sale of their oil?

George: Over the last 30 or so years the oil producers have made enough dollars to buy all the Gold AND Gold mines in the world if they wanted to,they have some kind of agreement with the rest of the world not to do this.

Me: A written agreement?

George: I don't know if it's written or not, but think about this,and I don't have any actual figures with me, oil producing countries may be receiving up to a BILLION dollars a day(40,000,000 barrels times $25.00 per barrel equals 1 billion dollars a day) times 100 days equals 100 billion dollars--times 1000 days (less than 3 years) equals 1 Trillion dollars.
OPEC was formed when? 30 or 40 or so years ago. They sell oil to the Japanese,Europe, every industrialized country in the world, including the United States.
Ask yourself this, where has that 10 trillion dollars gone to?

Me: Military spending?

George: Some, but nowhere near those amounts.
There is something else you should know. The entire Mid-East region is run(controlled) by wealthy families, who sometimes fued among themselves.Therefore, huge real wealth(Gold)is held by powerful individuals of different family's, I met the King( George's words) of Saudi Arabia, he has been shot and hit twice by members of his own family, who were in turn immediately gunned down by body guards.
Shieks may have up to 4 wives, and then some.
Some family's may have 1000 princes.

Me: Tell me more about Gold over there.

George: Each town, or market place has a money changer who can weigh Gold and exchange it into paper money or goods.His exchange rate is based on the world "spot" price of Gold daily price.(LBMA???).
Dhabi(spelling) in The United Arab Emirates is the largest seller of physical Gold in the world, they sell to anyone with the money to buy including the people from India who buy up to 850 tonnes per year.
I saw Gold in the market places many times over there.The U.S. 5 dollar Gold peice would be valued on Gold content only, not as a collectors item.(The rest of the talk was about places George visited)
Have to run now, see you next week.

Me: See you next week.

beesting comments:
Could the oil producing countries with billions or trillions of dollars at their disposal really be the ones keeping the price of Gold depressed using Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley etc. as their brokerage houses.Could the oil producers, "behind the scenes", set the London "Fix" daily price?

Who benifits the most from low Gold prices?

Answer: buyers of Gold and anyone who has been tought since childhood Gold is the worlds best storage vehicle for long term wealth.

Why doesn't the World Gold Council have official figures for amounts of Gold in the Mid East Region?

Answer: different type of Governing body, it's held by individuals (strong hands) not a Western type Government that is supposed to report financial matters to the public.No official reporting requirements!

Are the large holders of Gold watching with amusement as the un-controlled and controlled GREED of the Western World self distructs as ownership of paper wealth loses value?....beesting.

TownCrierSir Lex and pre-'33 versus bullion#2823904/06/00; 21:39:44

>>>"I have two concerns on the pre '33 gold coins:
(a) you get less actual metal content for the
money as opposed to bullion coins like the
Eagle, Maple leaf, Philharmoinc, etc. etc.
A rough estimate is about 2 and half times
more gold content for the buck, bullion vs.

Good God, man! Who is quoting you such exorbitantly high prices? Give MK's people a call at Centennial and they will make your day. Just as the best bang for your buck in a perfectly predictable world is to buy ounce bullion coins instead of the fraction bullion coins (half-ounce, quarter-ounce, tenth-ounce), so too would it be to acquire ounce bullion coins compared to the approx quarter- or fifth-ounce pre-33 European gold coins. But as I indicated previously, these pre-33's are not currently priced significantly different than the similar sized bullion coins. Certainly nowhere even near to two-and-a-half times the price...unless market conditions have changed while I wasn't looking. Again, contact the folks at Centennial during Denver Business hours for prices on gold helvetias, guilders, sovereigns, francs, etc. Ounce per ounce, the price is very comparable to bullion.

>>>"(b) the pre '33 coins are difficult to find in
high MS and take longer to accumulate with
fewer options to acquire them"

Shucks. I should have read your part (b) before answering your part (a). Now I can see why you are being bent over on prices. You are essentially tracking down coins that have been individually fussed over by men with tweezers, cotton gloves, and thick glasses. Centennial's "confiscation resistant" coins come in caches that have sat in some wealthy families safe in essentially brilliant uncirculated condition during all these years. The parents pass on, and the kids sell the gold. Foolish kids. Anyway, that is why the coins remain reasonably priced, yet also add a level of protections to meet your concerns against potential confiscations.

>>>"My gut instint is that if it ever gets that bad even pre'33 items would not be exempted."

One of the best arguments against such a confiscation happening to the historic coins is that the government is required to give fair value for anything they confiscate. They could be kept tied up in negotiations and in court for years as old world coin holders fight tooth and nail to keep their gold, arguing over valuation of each individual coin. That is too big a hassle even for the government to deal with. Bullion coin holders would have no similar recourse. Especially those holding coins minted by the U.S. itself, such as the modern gold Eagles.

Just some thoughts before blowing out the candle here in The Tower...

Lex(No Subject)#2824004/06/00; 22:02:02

Thanks, TownCrier for your info. I'll give them a call. Your argument on "fair market value" for collectors coins makes sense.
Twice DiscipledConfiscation (Again) -- Please Read#2824104/06/00; 22:08:15

Everytime I see the conversation about confiscation, I will continue to post this message I posted March 24 until someone can prove me wrong. Folks, learn your constitutional rights before it is too late!

Twice Discipled (3/24/2000; 21:28:10MDT - Msg ID:27437)
Gold Confiscation – Read this and NEVER FEAR gain!
Ok folks, I too have had this concern, but now that I am reading "Vultures in Eagle's Clothing" which can be ordered from, I understand the hoax.
There exist the "united States of America" and the "United States of America".
The "United States" consist of the District of Columbia and other territories, NOT the 50 states of the union.
The laws enacted by congress for the "United States" are not bound by the U.S. Constitution. All unconstitution laws are null and void on sovereign citizens of the 50 states of the Union.
As a citizen of a state, NOT the "United States" you are not bound by any unconstitutional law or executive order; however, these may be enforced on citizens of the "United States" – the District of Columbia and the territories.
** By the way, this is all supported via Supreme Court rulings!**

So when FDR ordered confiscation of gold, it could only be enforced on citizens of the "United States" or those in the District of Columbia and other US territories. Everyone else who turned in their gold and was a citizen of one of the 50 states, volunteered through deception.

The same principle applies to taxes. Don't believe me? Can't blame you, even my wife is rolling her eyes. She said "What! Am I to think that everything I was taught for all of my life is a lie?" Read it for yourself. Once again I asked, "Who are the sheeple?" Are we, including myself, not sheeple of one color calling names at the sheeple of another color?
Oh Lord, take the scales off of my eyes that I may see mine enemy.

If we are to prosper and put this tyranny in its place we must learn the constitutional law of our country.

Buy gold and be free.

apprenticeSwiss Gold Referendum#2824204/06/00; 22:54:11

In my opinion, the Swiss citizens should ask for a referendum that would remove the gold bullion from their
government's control and also from the monetery system.
They could put it in a vault in a National Museum. A portion of the bullion could, on occasion, be displayed to the public and foreign tourists. It is doubtful that anyone will ever see the gold again, if it is sold on the open market for paper.

Black BladeRe: Zenidea, on Corundum and "gold rust"#2824304/06/00; 23:43:11

I am not aware of AuO or gold rust, as Au is an inert metal. However, the formation of synthetic corundum is another matter. Artificial corundum is manufactured from bauxite on a large scale, mostly for manufacture as an abrasive. Synthetic rubies and (blue)sapphires, colored with small amounts of Cr and Ti are synthesized by fusing alumina powder in an oxy-hydrogen flame which on cooling forms single crystal boules in what is known as the Verneuil process. I'm not familiar with all the intimate details. The commercial manufacturers use a tracer so that synthetic corundum can be readily distinguished from natural corundum. Generally it is easy to tell the difference, since synthetic looks too good and is generally "eye clean" where in natural corundum, inclusions are quite common, even in the best grades. Most rubies that I've come across have been more of a milky or clouded red color. I've only encountered natural rubies and sapphires in Mogok, Myanmar and through contacts in Thailand. However, I have not had much trouble telling the difference between synthetic and natural. BTW, how do you get gold rust? I've had 24K gold for many years and it still shines very bright J
Black BladeGold Confiscation, Ha!#2824404/07/00; 00:53:54

As far as confiscation of Au is concerned, I wouldn't be too worried about it. For one thing, here in the US, we have extensive borders to the north and south where people cross legally and illegally without too much difficulty. If one held illegal gold, then all one would have to do is cross this imaginary line on a map and redeem your bullion for foreign currency or goods, then redeem that for FRNs if so desired. Besides, who would willingly turn over their gold to such a totalitarian regime that would steal gold from it's citizens. I know some gullible sheep will. I wouldn't do it, but then, I look at laws as merely suggestions anyway ;-)
FarfelLessons Learned from "Turnaround Tuesday"#2824504/07/00; 00:54:45

1. In a meltdown involving US stocks, bonds, and the US Dollar, it is obvious gold and gold stocks will have pure contrarian beta and be sought out as the only practical flight to safety. The public will disregard whether a gold stock is hedged or unhedged...whether there is a $1 of debt or $100 million of debt in the company. The public will race to physical and gold stocks, almost anything with the name gold on it.

2. Since gold finally established itself categorically as the #1 flight to safety in a stock market meltdown, the Establishment forces (notably the Treasury, Goldman Sachs, Barrick Bank & Hedge Fund, Inc., etc.) are going to work to crush the metal once and for all. They appear to be pulling out all stops in a determined attempt to invalidate gold as a safety haven, summoning all captive media to spin gold in the most negative light possible and convince the average mutual fund investor that gold is equivalent to toxic waste.

3. Contrary to the assertions by white metal enthusiasts, the only white metal likely to soar in a stock market meltdown will be silver owing to its special monetary status in certain parts of the world. During Tuesday's market collapse, platinum and palladium were NOT sought by investors. Moreover, PGM stocks (such as Stillwater) fell in step with the rest of the market. If one examines the very high mainstream mutual fund ownership in Stillwater (exceeding 30%), then its price drop during a crash is no surprise as mainstream funds were probably liquidating SWC in order to redirect cash for the rescusitation of collapsing high tech investments.

4. Given the market collapse and the reflexive flight to gold, then it will be very interesting to see the Swiss reaction to the event. Since gold finally proved itself as the only logical flight to safety Tuesday, then the odds that Switzerland might cancel its gold sale probably increased a great deal. Will the ultimate goldbug nation decide against a gold sale in the final hour? If so, what type of gold price explosion could occur upon such an announcement? Fifty dollars in one hour? Seventy five dollars in a day? Over a hundred dollars on the no-limit-up OTC? In any case, one cannot help but wonder about the timing of this market turmoil given that it is occurring so close to the proposed sale of Swiss gold...and given that it so obviously invalidates the faulty logic behind Swiss gold divestments. Most peculiar: the enormous purchases of June gold calls by obviously deep pocket entities.

5. Since oil prices and oil stocks collapsed on Tuesday, then the Establishment's oft repeated declaration that oil is the most desirable commodity in the world proved to be invalid. Once again, the "commodity" that has stood the test of thousands of years proved to be the ultimate beneficiary of frightened money: GOLD. Moreover, its scarcity as a financial asset (relative to fiat paper debt) made it even more attractive. In a world in which something like seven per cent of the population controls 90% of the wealth, then an asset in scarcity will hold much more value than a debt (like fiat paper) in abundance.

6. The fact that the stock market fell spontaneously in the absence of any unduly negative left field event may have shifted American mass investor psychology in a negative way In other words, the American investor, accustomed to linear reality, experienced an existential moment in which Tuesday was unlike any other preceding investment day. Although the turnaround was reminiscent of other past market problem days, the instigating factor (the Microsoft decision) was a unique one in that it appeared to be completely innocuous.
Moreover, given that we are in an election year, the much complacent American investor was particularly shocked by such a downspike. Finally, the international investor likely experienced an existential event too, seeing a surprising, unexplainable manifestation of "American hysteria" in a country and market long perceived as stable, calm and secure.



AREM?#2824604/07/00; 00:58:19

Hill Billy MitchellOfficial release#2824704/07/00; 04:03:03

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 6, 2000

Rates for Wednesday, April 5, 2000

Federal funds 6.08

Treasury constant maturities:

3-month 5.86
10-year 5.90
20-year 6.14
30-year 5.81

HI - HATThe Aztec Axioms#2824804/07/00; 04:33:16

Comparative analysis of the operational outcomes of a primative moded systems thought form, juxtaposed to reflect modern refinement.....:.

Aztec preists high atop the Ceremonial Pyramid reflect. "We have cut the hearts out of many a supplicant today. The streaming blood nourishes the Most on High, the Sun will come again".

Goldman Saks traders high atop the Wall Street Skyscraper reflect. "We have gouged the eyes out and ripped off the face of many a supplicant today. The streaming money nourishes our Corporate Coffers, Our stock will rise again". See how Worlds are sustained.

HenriFarfel#282494/7/2000; 6:04:04

I agree that gold has sent the signal on turnaround Tuesday that it may just be a good place to park some fiat as a hedge against market disruption. I tend to think of the concurrent rise of gold and fall of all else as an effect caused by the "natural bouyancy" of gold. These days for gold not to rise in price takes continuous management and intervention. When attention is diverted for even an hour we see the cream start to separate and rise. Unfortunately, the obvious was also noticed quite quickly by the same group who engineered the stock recovery and gold was beaten back down.
Black BladeUnemployment numbers as expected#2825004/07/00; 07:14:21

Benign report leads to higher S&P Futures, currently +11.50. Could be an interesting open in New York. Gold down -$0.65 to $279.15. No real news on PMs this morning. Could be a boring day for the metals, but then, Ya Never Know!
LelandWill the Dot.coms Bring Down the Stock Markets? --- We're About to Find Out #2825104/07/00; 07:55:29

By Alan Goldstein / The Dallas Morning News

Mark Cuban may have made his fortune with a hot
Internet stock, but when he surveys today's
landscape, he doesn't like what he sees.

"Most of the ones you see out there won't even be in
business in two years," the Dallas billionaire said,
following a luncheon speech at the Infomart to
entrepreneurs looking for advice on running Internet

"If they can't raise more and more money, they're
toast," he said. "There's not three of them I would
buy right now. Other than Yahoo, of course."

Mr. Cuban told the entrepreneurs that it would be
more difficult to start an Internet business now than it
was in September 1995, when he co-founded
AudioNet based on what was then a radical notion:
sending radio programs over the Internet. Soon, the
company was transmitting video as well.

The company went public in 1998 as and was sold last year to Santa
Clara, Calif.-based Yahoo Inc. in a deal worth
almost $6 billion.

Mr. Cuban, now the owner of the Dallas Mavericks,
was asked whether he thinks dot.coms are

"Ninety-nine percent of them, yes," he said,
reflecting an increasingly prevalent sentiment that has
been tanking many technology stocks this week.

In his speech, Mr. Cuban offered his 10 rules for
running a business.

All are based on creating an aggressive, viable
company where success is measured in traditional
ways, such as growth in revenues and net income.

"You really have to have an angle. You have to have
something that's compelling and differentiated. ...
There have probably been 50,000 or more businesses started in the last 12
months. There's only been 300 or so that have gone
public. What about the other 49,700? You're not
going to see 50,000 companies go public"
over the next two to four years.

His rules are:

1. Design the company to be profitable. "Today,
people think they need an exit strategy," he said.
"But that requires that you have a market to exit to.
After the past week, that may not be the case. ...
You need profits to pay back investors and

2. Culture is critical. enjoyed a
wildly successful initial public offering in 1998, but
the founders were reluctant to celebrate. "How the
market responded to the IPO was a reflection of
supply and demand for the stock," he said.
Executives felt humbled by investors' expectations
for the company. "We celebrated big sales, not the
fact that we went public."

3. Do not under any circumstances listen to your
customers. "By the time a company asks for a
service or feature, it's too late. Learn to anticipate
the customers' needs."

4. Build barriers to entry. "We built exclusive
relationships with content providers and customers.
We would lock out competitors."

5. Differentiate. "Changing the way a Web site looks
is easy to do. Focus on things that truly make you

6. Traffic is king, not content. "If you don't get the
traffic, it doesn't matter what the content is. ... It's
the most expensive asset to create on the Net. You
need to be guerrilla-like in going after traffic. We
went out and found things that had big audiences
and became aggregators."

7. Make it easy for customers to complete a
purchase. "When all is said and done, it better be
close to one-touch buying."

8. Sales cure everything. "If you've got sales people
selling, you can generate revenue."

9. Focus, focus, focus. "You can drown in
opportunity in this business. Be specific. 'Here is our
mission.' ... But you're going to be wrong, and you
might have to change focus."

10. Either you're disrupting the competition or
they're disrupting you. "If I saw somebody who I
thought was going to be a key account for them, I
went after it."

Mr. Cuban offered an addendum to his list: Have
some fun.

"All the sleepless nights, the long days. I wouldn't
change a minute. It was a blast."

[Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only]

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USAGOLDToday's Report: Markets Quiet; Await Jobs Report#2825204/07/00; 08:32:45

4/7/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/7/00): Gold was sideways this morning with all the markets
seeming to be in search of direction. Trading was light in the London market
going into the weekend. The Asian market was marked by further selling from
Australian producers. Overall the gold market is quiet this morning. Today we
get jobs data. "People expect a pretty big payroll jobs number," said a top
bond trader as quoted by Reuters. Whether or not those numbers will be enough
to rekindle inflation fears and widen the cracks in the stock market
foundations remains to be seen. However, referring to the article published
here a few days ago, those of us operating in the real economy on a day to
day basis will likely view today's numbers a moot point. We already know that
this economy is running at just about full employment no matter what today's
numbers tell us.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here Monday.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click link above and make the appropriate entries.

SteveHFarfel#2825304/07/00; 08:42:07


The rule of opposite.

Market psychology was indeed hurt by near-miss Tuesday. You aptly describe the event as an existential moment: one of those rare but human phenomenon that shows the world is not a fixed set of rules, rather a system that tries to find equilibrium with moments of panic. That said, however, I would like to add to your comments.

The near-miss Tuesday aptly showed that no matter what us goldbugs think or do, the market will pretty much ignore our view, meaning: if we believe the market will rise, it will fall. If we feel the market will favor gold, it won't.

The only times we have prevailed was during those moments of chaos or panic that somehow managed to prevail, if but for an instant. This actually lends itself to predictive power -- how can so many smart people be so wrong, so often? Well, somehow, we are managing to do that. So, let's have some fun with our new-found predictive powers (with reverse control surfaces).


Since we believe the market is overvalued. It is not. It will continue to hold steady or rise.

Since we believe gold is undervalued. It is not. It will continue to remain low.

Since we believe that silver and gold and S&P futures are controlled or manipulated markets and that exposure to the press will ameliorate that situation, it will not. It will only serve to entrench our enemies in their false-beliefs. Therefore, the press will never expose the truth, the markets will only go down during rare moments of chaos caused by seemingly unrelated news that is in the making but hasn't been determined yet.

The Republicans can use the alleged manipulations of the gold market by the ESF and certain bullion banks to their advantage. They won't. They will completely miss this excellent opportunity.

The preelection era will be an excellent time for things to unravel. After all, gold can not continue to be held down that long. Wrong, the markets will be held intact through the election, gold will continue to be held in abeyance until after the election.

NASDAQ is overvalued as is much of the DOW. Wrong again. 100:1 P/Es are the norm, at least until after the election.

The CNN's and CNBC's will finally see the light and expose the manipulators. Wrong yet again. The talking heads will continue to use the very people whose interests are to extend the bull market as their keynote commentators. It is a self-fullfilling relationship in which those most interested in continuing the bull are placed in a position to extend the bull.

Federal regulators are investigating on the QT all of the shenanigans in the market place, including the ESF-GS connection. Wrong. This is exactly what isn't happening. The exposure of this will not take place until all else comes to light after the election and after one of those existential moments burns a lot of peoples bank accounts. Only in hindsight will all of this be exposed.

Hey this predictive stuff is fun. Try it. Just find a hope, dream, or belief or expectation you have. Write it down and then predict the opposite event to happen and it will.

No, there is no rule here that says, if you discover the rule, that it will change the outcome. Nice try though.

About the only expetation that won't follow the rule of opposites is that there will be one or more unpredicted, chaos moment(s) that will turn these markets and cause gold to rise. We just don't know what or when, but it won't be what we expect nor when we expect it.


PS. So, if you see one of us make a prediction, find out what the opposite or converse is and that is what will really happen. Try it,it works.

ss of nep@Steve H # 28253#2825404/07/00; 08:51:23

You said
Hey this predictive stuff is fun. Try it. Just find a hope, dream, or belief or expectation you have. Write it down and then predict the opposite event to happen and it will

I do beleive that you are catching on to the

Hegelian Dialectic

Henriwishful thinking#2825504/07/00; 09:30:31

I wish my wife would find me sexually repulsive and do whatever she has to do to torture me umercifully... futhermore, I wish Pamela Anderson Lee would find my wife to be sexually unattractive and establish an absolutely hellish relationship with her and decide to stay married to Tommy Lee. My wife would then convince Pamela Anderson Lee that I am not only sexually repulsive but that I am in fact the most sexually repulsive single individual on the planet. My wife would then selfishly do everything in her power to keep Pamela Anderson Lee as far away from me as possible so that she would not have any chance to experience intimately and repeatedly the absolute repulsiveness that is me.
Mr GreshamSteve H / Henri#2825604/07/00; 10:14:02

(Brilliant, Henri!)

I used to get (and read) all those investment letter come-ons in the early 80s ("buy gold" Howard Ruff-type) and marvel at their writing skills in generating ad copy. Of course Mark Hulbert tracked them, too, and showed their predictive powers to be mostly below average (below S&P anyway).

I, on the other hand, found that I had _remarkable_ predictive powers, in that whatever I did, it was bound to fall or reverse almost immediately, or stagnate for many years.

(Continuing in that vein, I've been warning my clients to bail out of stocks since about Dow 3000. I'm used to the look they give me now...)

So, putting 2 and 2 together, it occurred to me as long as 15 years ago to publish "The Corrigan Report" (as in "Wrong Way Corrigan, famous football incompetent who scored for the opposition) which would announce what financial moves _I_ had actually made (bought a house, stock, PM, etc.), and then my subscribers could contrarily trade that information to their great profit.

Hopefully, the newsletter revenues would cover my sacrificial investment losses on their behalf. Never got around to it, and now that I think of it, me starting a purported investment newsletter would have been the signal for all the Bill Bonner types to get out of the newsletter business, right? But I didn't, and they didn't, and the rest is non-history...

Should I be serious here for a moment, if anyone has read this far? The probable reason we contrarians have been wrong so far is only that we have failed to comprehend the utter corruption, tenacity, and successful propagandizing of the system we've been betting against. But that is merely the set-up for FOA's prescription that under such a scenario, you only need to be right ONCE in a lifetime for your investment program to redeem itself.

And the middle question I have asked often in the context of the manipulation scenario: Are the individuals who are the agents of the system secretly making the same choices we are for their PERSONAL portfolios while carrying out their price-suppressing functions in their government/corporate roles? We'll probably never know, or only after our investments are confirmed by market events themselves. Then the manipulators will be merely an interesting footnote to the history we have lived.

FarfelSTEVE H...a glaring error in your goldbug rule of opposites#2825704/07/00; 10:23:57

You said...

The preelection era will be an excellent time for things to unravel. After all, gold can not continue to be held down that long. Wrong, the markets will be held intact through the election, gold will continue to be held in abeyance until after the election.

I don't know of any goldbugs or any mainstream investors who think that the gold market will be set free prior to the election. The majority definitely believe the gold market will be controlled until then.

SO by virtue of your rule of opposites, the gold market should break loose of its chains.



IronHeadSteve H. Severely Bad Ju-Ju #2825804/07/00; 10:33:25

Sir Steve H. - Your postulations do not bode well for those of us who feel our Second Amendment Rights will persevere, as I have thought for 40 years of NRA membership.


HenriSecondly I wish#2825904/07/00; 10:34:40

that gold would stay low priced in US dollars so that all here can continue to accumulate at a really good price.
Gandalf the WhiteWhere did the COMEX volume go ?#2826004/07/00; 10:51:56

The Hobbits are seeing next to NOTHING is happening at the Gold Pit on the COMEX ! THEREFORE, in line with the SteveH and F * thinking -- HOLD ON TO YOUR Beanies, you seasick seaserpents !

Galearis@Black Blade: gold confiscation....#2826104/07/00; 10:56:09

There is a school (one member, at least) that subscribes to this scenario unfolding in Canada. Please note that while Roosevelt perped this travesty upon the people of the United States, no similar event occurred in Canada. In a sense one might be inclined to believe that Canadians are ripe for the plucking.

The school (of one) also subscribes to the notion that this could even take the form of arbitrarily enforcing a policy that gold and silver Maples to be worth only their face value thereby repatriating (confiscating) the gold to the mint.

Another form of confiscation could take the form of blaming miners for the mess and nationalizing them.

This is just a school (of one) way of thinking about this.

I am not the one. But it is interesting.

Still feel Canada is a safe haven?

SteveHFarfel#2826204/07/00; 10:56:24

Rule of disagreement:

The greater two goldbugs disagree on one point the greater liklihood that neither event will transpire. Gold will never rise (arghh!).

lamprey_65Farfel: On a rise in gold#2826304/07/00; 10:59:16

Goldman Sachs & Crew will be aboard gold stocks when the time is ripe for a true correction. You see, it's the best hedge they've got...with their major problem with the physical, at least they can off-set it through the rise in gold shares. Tuesday was not the first day gold shares have reacted positively to a falling market this year, but it was the most dramatic. I don't see them stopping a TRUE rise in gold (one where money comes in to stay, and lots of it).

It has to be obvious to everyone by now that the way to play this overvalued market is not to short (you'll get your head handed to you on the snap backs), but to buy shares of major gold producers and sit on them as a hedge.


lamprey_65Gold Confiscation#282644/7/2000; 11:00:18

What Gold? Nice day in New England, think I'll go out and tend the garden. ;-)
FarfelAddendum to my Earlier Post Today...IPO FRIDAY#282654/7/2000; 11:17:49

As I predicted accurately yesterday, the market celebrated the jobs data today. I have not bothered to check what the actual stats are since they no longer have any meaning to me or anybody else. Every employment report is cause for celebration in a manipulated market. SO who really cares? I know I don't.

However, of course, there is one other reason the market is exploding today. It is "IPO FRIDAY" featuring numerous high tech IPO's and the various mutual funds have been busy ramping up the NASDAQ in order to promote the proper bullish environment. Again, this is no surprise and has become an established pattern now for several years. If you think the pattern will ever disrupt, then you believe in a free market and you also believe in Santa Claus. However, today I do not.

Now that the funds have properly manipulated the NASDAQ upward, they can sell their IPO's.

Now, remember this: each IPO is designed to ensure a huge price explosion. This is achieved by NEVER providing sufficient stock to meet public demand. For example, if you know the public wants at least 20 million shares of INTERNET PONZI SCAM INC., you must never provide more than 4 million shares to the market.

Of course, in the old days when the Wall Street Establishment and government regulators aspired to a rational free stock market, a company would attempt to gauge public demand for new stock, then set an IPO price and provide enough stock to afford the company a reasonable run-up in stock price. Back then, Wall Street knew that it was not in the best interests of market health or the economy to create "maniacal" stock run-ups as that would foster a casino environment.

Sometimes when I watch these hysterical Wall Street IPO's, knowing that much of the mania rests on the actions of day traders, then I wonder whether the internet brokerage companies are primarily responsible via fat bribes to various market regulators and government officials. It just seems inconceivable to understand how Wall Street and the government have allowed this kind of insanity to take hold since in the long run it cannot be in the interest of the market or the country.



So there you have it.

ss of nepcharts - charts#282664/7/2000; 11:19:53

from sharefin
IronHeadConfiscation#282674/7/2000; 11:20:47

Governing controlers around the world have deemed certain, shall we say *commodities* are unfit for human consumption, yet they flourish in the underground (actually quite above ground) arena. The value seems quite contrary to their legality, so in effect we gold-bugs should hope for the purported confiscation and illegality of our favorite commodity. This all with respect to Steve H's inverse corallary.


Cavan ManMssrs. Gresham and Lamprey#282684/7/2000; 11:21:01

Lamprey-You are so right about shorting the market. Thank goodness (the forum here) I am completely out of that game.

Gresham-It sounds like you and me have been on the same investment program. Everything I bet on went the other way or stayed flat. I really know how to pick 'em.

AREM@ USAGOLD Msg ID 28117, All: Regarding Market Rigging#282694/7/2000; 11:28:45

You stated in part as follows:

"I would point out to Mr. Crudele that though market rigging might be politically correct in an election year,if you or I were to do it, we would find ourselves pleading our case before a court of law. Why are Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch permitted to do it with impunity? And not only permitted to do it with impunity, but encouraged and sanctioned by the very same government that is supposed to be regulating such activity."

I am having difficulty in understanding what Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are doing that is illegal. If they are investing their own money to move the market, what is wrong with that? Are you implying that it is government money that is being fed to them? Please explain what constitutes the illegal process of "market


IronHeadOops#282704/7/2000; 11:31:28

Sorry, I forgot to include the punch line: "If Gold Is Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Have Gold"...Yeah Verily!


tedwThe Future of Gold#282714/7/2000; 11:49:21

Here I am, after some soul searching and repentance, back to post again.

My insight is not much and just based on my own perception and common sense.

It seems to me that the one element missing from the previous run ups in Gold was sustained investor demand.
The events of early this week show the investment dollar will flee to Gold in the event of a stock market crash. It seems safe to predict that gold will rise dramatically when the stock market crashes.

When will that happen? I dont know, but a guess would be when the market in general perceives that stocks without earnings are bad investments.

Ravi Batra in his recent writings to touches on some of these points: predicting a crash and that Gold is the only safe haven.

TownCrierFed adds nearly one billion dollars to permanent reserves via coupon pass#282724/7/2000; 13:07:59

Instead of the usual temporary adds through open market repo operations, the Fed pulled out the heavy guns for the third time in two weeks, adding $986 million in permanent reserves to the banking system through the outright purchase of Treasry coupons (dated between Dec 2000 - Sept 2001).
CoBra(too)Rigged, fixed, manipulated markets - Nothing new there!#2827304/07/00; 13:50:02

What is new, is the blatant, audacious and unabashed (pleonasm?) way the administration is administering these poison pills to their own constituents and to the rest of the world. Whatever the US and its constitution has stood for is being abandoned for the sake of short term virtual
Gory! - It is beyond my mental capabilitiies to envision the end game, which may not be too far away. It will wreak havoc among the unsuspecting participant (baby) boomers, never ever been exposed to adverse market conditions and conditioned by the official US of an everlasting and well deserved land of milk and honey. The "official" and begnign (not neglect) interventions in markets since at least Oct. of 1987 have been at the root of the spreading belief of the ultimate bailout of the US$ and US-Market Investor, as well as the root of the last safe haven (syndrome?) idiocy!

As some of you on this great forum, might have suspected I've been involved in gold exploration and development for years, though coming from the financing side of the equation, but never promoted anything other than -physical gold -here. I, as most of you do feel stress levels building to utter exasperation at the total unfairness of this rigged ploy, I have to rethink some of my personal strategies in the next while.
I will, of course, be lurking as time permits. In the meantime, I would like to thank you all for most stimulating discussions, insights, education and "virtual" friendship, with special kudos to MK, TC, FOA, ORO ... to name a few.

Golden luck to all - CB2

Au-someGold Confiscation#2827404/07/00; 15:26:01

Will the government confiscate gold? If they try will they succeed? After all, this isn't 1933 any more - today half the American people won't even fill out a census form! Hmmmm... How to force compliance...?
Remember Mogadishu, Somalia? A Delta/Ranger Task Force was shot to pieces by an armed and aroused citizenry (like it or not) - and sent packing. That won't work.
But in Tiananmen Square some students tried to exercise their (God given) right to free speech without first having secured (for themselves) their right to bear arms and were crushed. Score one for tyranny!
Hmmmm... Better confiscate the guns first Bill.

TownCrierThis just in via e-mail...RE: Mr Gresham (Msg ID:28256)#2827504/07/00; 15:42:21

"Wrong Way Corrigan" was a flier-early 30's-who wanted to fly to
Paris-a la Lindberg. He was forbidden to do so and so filed a flite plan
for a West Coast destination. Wound up in Paris. When questioned in
Paris, he said
"Humph, must have flown the wrong way"

Re the football angle, Roy
Riegels of the Univ of the 1927 Rose Bowl game against Alabama
carried a recovered fumble about 65 yds the wrong way to the Cal 6 yd.
line whererint on the he was tackled by teammate Benny Lom.
Have seen the same misconception in print three times lately on the
internet. Hope this helps the price of gold.

Thanks for that info!

TownCrier would also like to add that it was big purple #70 Jim Marshall of Minnesota Vikings fame who did Roy Riegels one better...he actually scored the touchdown. A great guy, Jim.

TownCrierHear ye! Hear ye! A long labor is now available for review!#2827604/07/00; 16:43:52

The Hall of Fame has been updated with all qualifying posts that have been brought to the attention of us here in The Tower.

Lots of new material, including an update for the latest contest winners.

Plenty of reading material for your weekend! Enjoy!!

Hill Billy MitchellOfficial Release#2827704/07/00; 17:11:31

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 7, 2000

Rates for Thursday, April 6, 2000

Federal funds 6.05

Treasury constant maturities:

3-month 5.88
10-year 5.93
20-year 6.12
30-year 5.80

FarfelBloomberg's Daily ANTI-GOLD spiel... ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz#2827804/07/00; 17:16:52

Once again, the same anti-gold guys (Chase Manhattan, Lehman, Bill O'Neil, etc.) utter the same bullshit ad nauseum. Not a day goes by where these guys don't release anti-gold news into the media. For a metal that is supposedly a mere undesirable commodity, how the hell does it attract so much attention?

It can only be desperation, it can be nothing less.

Their game of deceit is coming under a spotlight and a house of cards is a very precarious thing.




For Gold Bugs, Rallies Fail to Last as Long as Hope: Spotlight

Bloomberg News
Apr 7 2000 11:53AM
New York, April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Eddie Toolan says he's convinced of the value of gold. A third of his family's $1 million portfolio is wagered on the precious metal. And even though his gold holdings are down by more than half from their peak, Toolan is hoping they will soon end a four-year decline.
Trouble is, it may be a very long wait. After gold posted a 16 percent gain in September that was its biggest one-month rally in 17 years, prices resumed their descent to around $283 an ounce and now are a third lower than the 1996 high of $420.
The slump has left Toolan, a 53-year-old sixth-grade science teacher in Brooklyn, wondering why gold is down again. After all, didn't gold rally when European central banks had promised in September to limit their bullion sales? Won't that help prices?
``I'm convinced investing in gold is more of an art than a science,'' said Toolan, who put family retirement money in gold equity funds in 1993. Maybe if he'd studied psychology instead of science he'd better understand what's ailing gold, Toolan said.
It isn't just the psychology of investing that has changed the outlook for gold. Prices have been declining for much of the past 13 years because of the lure of other investments, tame inflation and ample supplies of the precious metal from the vaults of the world's central banks.
A decade ago, gold was prized as a store of value in tumultuous economic times, when inflation erased earnings from bonds and other investments. With few signs of accelerating inflation on economic radar screens for years, and central banks unloading their bulging reserves on an uninterested market, those heady days are long gone.
Just a Commodity
The ``conventional wisdom is wrong,'' said Peter Ward, a gold equities analyst at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. ``Gold is becoming another commodity and it's a commodity with an enormous inventory problem.''
The September announcement that 15 central banks in Europe agreed to limit bullion sales to a combined total of 2,000 metric tons over five years had the intended effect of stemming the rout in gold prices, sending them to a two-year high of $339 an ounce on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange in early October.
The celebration among investors known as ``gold bugs'' was short-lived. Subsequent gold sales by the Bank of England -- sanctioned under the September agreement -- got a lukewarm response from buyers. Gold prices, as reflected by New York futures, are down 17 percent from the October high, and analysts say there's little to stop the hemorrhaging.
``Things are getting ugly here,'' said William O'Neill, head of futures research at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. ``While we could never be accused of being gold bulls, having been abject bears for the last 10 years, gold is somewhat weaker than we might have expected and we could be in jeopardy of testing last year's lows.''
Bank Reserves
At the bottom of its long slide last year, gold reached a 20- year low of $253.20 an ounce on the Comex in July.
While the plunge in U.S. stocks this week gave gold a temporary boost, sending prices up 2.2 percent on Tuesday, the flurry of buying as some investors sought a safer haven for their money was short-lived.
``It only bought gold some time,'' O'Neill said, and prices fell for the next two days as stock prices stabilized.
Big culprits in gold's slide have been central banks, who are the biggest holders of the metal. They've been selling it and lending it to speculators as a way of getting a financial return on an asset that would otherwise collect dust in their vaults.
At the end of 1998, central banks held 32,737 metric tons of bullion in their vaults, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest reports. That's equivalent to 10 years of mine production.
Record Output
As long as all those gold bars were safely tucked away, they had little impact on the market. That changed in March 1989, when Belgium said it would offer 127 metric tons of gold from its reserves. Over the next decade, central banks in the Netherlands, Canada, the U.K., Austria, Australia, Argentina, Luxembourg, India, the Czech Republic and South Korea followed suit, swelling available supplies at a time when mine production also was up.
Last year, global mine production rose 1 percent to a record 2,569 metric tons, according to precious metals research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd. in London. While new production fell short of demand of 3,672 tons, the difference was made up by gold inventories from central banks, scrap and sales of future production by gold miners.
``Gold is definitely in a bearish mood right now,'' said Donald Eckert, head of precious metals trading at Chase Manhattan Bank in New York. There is ``record output and you have these central bank sales overhanging the market.''
Switzerland, known for gold as much as chocolate and cuckoo clocks, is preparing to sell 1,300 metric tons of its reserves over five years, and the U.K. is in the midst of selling 415 tons over several years. Also, the Netherlands is unloading 300 tons, and Austria this week announced plans to sell 90 tons.
Hanging in There
Toolan, the Brooklyn investor, has seen the value of his gold holdings, including investments in the American Century Global Gold and Van Eck Gold Resources funds, plunge 70 percent from their peak in 1996.
He has no plans to bail out just yet. Toolan said he could have cashed out with a 10 percent to 12 percent profit after gold's rally late last year, but he was so convinced that prices would go even higher, he stuck with it.

RossLpsychology#2827904/07/00; 17:58:48

A Quote from F*'s last post:

"Maybe if he'd studied psychology instead of science he'd better understand what's ailing gold, Toolan said."

Let's take a look at the psychology of the big media, government, and Wall Street. Manipulators, Keynesians, statists, socialists, big government doo-gooders. Whatever you want to label them, they worship government. They believe in intervention. The state is all powerful. There is no other way. The liberty of a few individuals can and must be sacrificed to ensure the survival of the state. Popular opinion must be controlled.

People of this mindset killed 50 million people in the last century. Many of these people believe because it is all they have ever known. They grew up watching TV and absorbing propaganda from public schools.

Someone over there in the midst of those who write this Bloomberg News garbage must know the truth. The storm in the world of paper assets is reaching a hurricane pitch.

I'll bet that there are many more of those Marty Armstrong types. Trash talk and collect a paycheck while it lasts. And hide a few thousand ounces of gold bars in the closet.

TownCrierThe offering of that Bloomberg article has a distinct scent of desparation, indeed#2828004/07/00; 18:26:41

Something must be happening (going poorly for the Funds) behind the scenes. I wonder what developments may unfold next week?

From the text:
"Toolan, the Brooklyn investor, has seen the value of his gold holdings, including investments in the American Century Global Gold and Van Eck Gold Resources funds, plunge 70 percent from their peak in 1996."

Sorry ol' chap. Had you not tried to generate dollars by buying into derivaties of gold and the promise of leverage against price movements, you would still be sitting on a king's wealth. Solid gold, metal in hand, is the only way to go in a market where the price is determined by an easily inflated paper derivative market.

In a twisted sense it's like this. Imagine that nobody is buying the soap, yet everyone is scheming over how rich they will be as a network marketing distributor, signing all of their friends up as distributors, who in turn are scheming along the same lines. In an attempt to draw the parallel closer to gold, while they attend meetings and sign each other up, the great unwashed masses of the world are happily "stealing" the unattended soap at criminally low prices...leaving the managers to stink up the place with no soap of their own in the end.


*puff* ...and out goes the candle.

beestingHas one ounce of Gold really lost it's value?#2828104/07/00; 19:18:02

When I was a boy my father had a job in a shipyard paying about $35.00 per week take home pay. The going rate at the time.(1940's)
Although trading Gold for stuff was outlawed at that time everyone and I mean everyone knew the official U.S.Government set price of Gold was $35.00 per ounce.
So, my dad worked a 40 hour week for the equivalent of one ounce of Gold-$35.00.

April 7,2000 minimum wages in the U.S. are about $6.50 per hour or $266.00 for a 40 hour work week. Less than the current value of an ounce of Gold, but were not quite done on the comparison. Most employees in the U.S. have compulsory deductions (CONFISCATION) already subtracted by employers in varying amounts.
Lets choose 30% for the above $266.00 earned.(I think that may be a very low figure- 30%.)
That means $79.80 is confiscated and $186.20 is left.
So in essence our minimum wage worker made about $4.66 per hour or about 1/3 less than my dad when his take home pay will only buy 2/3 of an ounce of Gold if Gold is around $280 per ounce.
So, that means a person would have to earn about $9.10 per hour or $364.00 per week to take home $280.00 or one ounce of Gold.....WRONG.... The friendly U.S. Government has a sliding scale on deductions upward.....The more you make the more they confiscate. I estimate $10.00 per hour may be enough to buy an ounce of Gold after deductions for 40 hours of labor.
So when the U.S. Labor department releases labor statistics how many of those millions of employees in the U.S. working for minimum wage or a little over can buy what my father could buy in Gold in the 1940's with his weekly pay check?

A reality check.....paper money creates an illusion of wealth. Want real Gold....beesting.

R PowellMarket manipulation#2828204/07/00; 19:47:56

**Mr. AREM: You asked about the legality of market support in times of meltdown. J.P. Morgan provided margin money by ordering/persuading bankers to use reserves in 1907 and probably averted a larger downturn than what did occur. His firm tried again in 1929 to no avail. The legality of government intervention is debateable. That they do intervene certainly raises questions about our "free markets". Intervention will also magnify the imbalance that the market movement was trying to correct. How it is done and by whom has been debated here for some time. I suggest traveling through the arcives of the last month or so keeping an eye open for posts concerning the PPT or the ESF. They will explain much and lead to other sourses of information. Happy reading! Be forewarned- the more I understand- the more questions I encounter.
**So many questions, So little knowledge!

Cavan ManUSAGOLD HOF SECTION#2828304/07/00; 20:07:11

RE: The FOA "Overviews"

Many thanks for the fine work in making the additions to the HOF. These posts by FOA are perhaps his best IMHO.

All should review. Thanks.

LelandBeesting, Your #28281#2828404/07/00; 20:18:00

Since I pre-date you by a few years, please allow me the
liberty of an observation.

In the 1930's a good daily wage in the USA was around
one dollar. Yes, there were jobs that paid more, like
shipbuilding, but I'm talking about the average wage
earner. Remember, times were hard. Forgetting about
the 25% unemployment rate, I truly believe that if you
made one dollar a day, you were lucky.

Now back to your theme....whenever I look at a Morgan, or
a one ounce silver American Eagle....this is how I believe
we should be comparing today's paper wealth to real wealth silver.

Bravo to you, my friend. You have made a valid comparison.
But, a silver dollar will always be my measure because gold
pieces disappeared in 1933. This was just before I can remember anything.

LelandBy the way, I Still Have a 1957 Silver Certificate#2828504/07/00; 20:46:58

One of those "redeemable" for silver. I use it to educate
the grandchildren. A GREAT learning tool. Recommended to
all grandparents.

UlyssesGold#2828604/07/00; 21:00:41

Repeat....the price of gold will never go up...the price of gold will never go are getting sleepy......
Farfel@TOWN CRIER...I think your analysis is very perceptive#2828704/07/00; 21:02:50

It's something I've been pondering myself today. It seems inconceivable to me that the market can plunge the way it did on Tuesday without wreaking disaster upon some major hedge fund or mutual fund or bank. No different than the LTCM scenario except this time maybe far worse.


Because Greedspan came under huge fire for his emergency rescusitation of LTCM on the categorically specious grounds it posed "systemic risk." This time, he will be under great scrutiny if he tries to pull another fast one like he did with LTCM, utilizing the bogus systemic risk excuse to prevent a group of his rich Wall Street buddies from losing a significant dime.

In fact, the LTCM founder himself denied later that LTCM's trouble ever posed one scintilla of systemic risk. To lend credence to that assertion, he is back in business with another large hedge fund utilizing the same leveraged investment techniques as before. For a fellow who supposedly almost toppled the financial system, he certainly had no trouble getting back in the game. That fact alone verifies the BS nature of the entire Greedspan rescue.

If Greedspan tries another LTCM-type salvation effort behind closed doors, then I think a lot of Republican politicians might wish to obstruct him since it is an election year. After all, it is in the Republicans' interests that the stock market and economy both go sour this year and NOT spring back. If the stock market remains in status quo vertical position, then the Democrats will win by a huge majority, probably the Senate and the House this time.

In any case, the very low volume springback in the NASDAQ today plus the flat performance of the DOW suggests that some major institution out there is having trouble again. The NASDAQ's very low volume upmove today probably consisted of a great deal of short covering rather than new funds inflows. The DOW's flat performance smells like a lot of guys wanting to get out but not getting the kinds of bids they want, so they stayed flat.

If there were no institutional problems occurring in the markets, thus creating negative multiplier effects, then I would have expected very high volume gains in both the DOW and the NASDAQ. Didn't happen though, did it?





UlyssesRossL#2828804/07/00; 21:09:56

My dear boy. It's called state-monopoly capitalism, not socialism. The game is rigged. The trick is knowing who's side of the game to be on.
Cavan ManFOA 1/16/00 23002#2828904/07/00; 21:17:41

RE: "More Overview"

"The Euro will keep taking share from the dollar, especially if major US players trade the Euro down to parity. Eventually (and presently as this is happening now), dollar reserves held outside the US will be forced into shorter and shorter maturities as the "return on" these holdings becomes more important than their "use as trading currency". This will drive dollar rates far above Euro rates, draining liquidity and forcing the FED to continue "Most" of its pumping action (what so many thought was Y2K related). Rising dollar rates will be in response to this new currency problem....."

I believe we might be witnessing the above.

The US has begun a buyback of 30 year issues and in all likelihood will continue to do so. The bond market has responded by inversion (10 Yr. lower than 30 Yr.). Historically, long term debt is a lower yield than short. Why buy back the longer term debt first? I need help with the answer. For myself, I'd pay off the car loan before the mortgage. I think we should pay close attention to the bond market during the coming months.

"Our sole reason for writing is a private commission to share official directions and perceptions with the average citizen of the world; nothing else..........This view gives you no facts only our perceptions from the builders of the future. We offer only the evensts as they occur for our proof."

CM comment: The singular constant feature of international monetary policy is change/evolution. It is not unreasonable to conclude that we are living in a day and age when we might see additional evolution in real time.

Black BladeCPM PMs supply-deficit report, now you got your weekend assignment!#2829004/07/00; 21:40:08

A very interesting reading assignment for the weekend boys and girls. Supply - deficit of the PMs in a nice "to the point" report! The silver section is particularly interesting (with all due respect to Ted Butler for his constant warnings and advisories on the subject). So kick back, open a cold one, read, think, and share your thoughts one and all. I'm headed to the Fridge to pour a tall one and a leisurely rereading of the forum posts and this report.
MariusFarfel: Don't hold your breath waiting for Repubs!#2829104/07/00; 22:09:44

"If Greedspan tries another LTCM-type salvation effort behind closed doors, then I think a lot of Republican
politicians might wish to obstruct him since it is an election year. After all, it is in the Republicans' interests that the stock market and economy both go sour this year and NOT spring back. If the stock market remains in status quo vertical position, then the Democrats will win by a huge majority, probably the Senate and the House
this time."


While I agree your logic makes sense, recent history suggests the Republicans are operating under a completely ass-backward logic! They have had ample opportunities to slam dunk Clintoon and AlphaGore on a whole range of issues, and they have not. Either they have been paralyzed into complete inactivity by fear of bad press, or they're no different than Democrats. Either way, they're useless. As I suggested to Sir Townie last week, don't expect any help from "W". If you do, I have some swampland I'll sell you....


Hill Billy MitchellInterest rate spread 30-yr Treasury Bond vs Fed Funds rate#2829204/07/00; 22:11:08

01-18-00 .92%
01-19-00 1.25
01-20-00 1.30
01-21-00 1.35
01-24-00 1.12
01-25-00 1.18
01-26-00 1.08
01-27-00 .92
01-28-00 .87
01-31-00 .62
02-01-00 .64
02-02-00 .68
02-03-00 .46
02-04-00 .53
02-07-00 .58
02-08-00 .55
02-09-00 .56
02-10-00 .56
02-11-00 .58
02-14-00 .43
02-15-00 .41
02-16-00 .60
02-17-00 .57
02-18-00 .46
02-22-00 .27
02-23-00 .37
02-24-00 .37
02-25-00 .44
02-28-00 .35
02-29-00 .30
03-01-00 .38
03-02-00 .39
03-03-00 .41
03-06-00 .43
03-07-00 .48
03-08-00 .40
03-09-00 .37
03-10-00 .44
03-13-00 .36
03-14-00 .31
03-15-00 .17
03-16-00 .28
03-17-00 .25
03-20-00 .17
03-21-00 .16
03-22-00 (0.05)%
03-23-00 (0.12)
03-24-00 .02
03-27-00 (0.08)
03-28-00 (0.04)
03-29-00 .01
03-30-00 (0.22)
03-31-00 (0.33)
04-03-00 (0.31)
04-04-00 (0.21)
04-05-00 (0.27)
04-06-00 (0.25)

IronHeadSirs Leland and beesting RE. Paper vs. Solid#2829304/07/00; 22:12:29

Hate to be redundant, but your comments go back to the 1900 double eagle that I carry in my pocket, as a reminder of how a paper currency can be debased.

In 1971, (when Nixon and company heisted the world and took us off the gold standard) a paper dollar went to about 13 cents of its 1900 value. A 1971 paper dollar is worth about 15 cents today. So the true value of paper vs. gold is pretty obvious, as the paper is virtually nothing more than paper.

Of course my new era friends would tell me about how that paper dollar in 1900 could have been invested all so well, in the dot coms. of the times. But we won't go into all that.

Sir beesting- Really chuckle every time I see your handle. I live in a cedar log cabin, which is supposedly great for repeling insects, but also a great attractant for wasps. They take up residence each fall, and spend the winter. Fire up the woodstove, heat up the house, wake up the bees. Usually get your "handle" a few times each year! Heck of a way to wake up at night when I roll over on your brethren!


Mr GreshamCorrigans of the World, Unite! (TC #28275)#2829404/07/00; 22:16:23

Thanks, TC, for setting me straight. See? I can't even get it right about always getting it wrong!

Seems I remember seeing the Corrigan/football angle on some TV half-time blurb when I was 14 or so, but probably just the product of a twisted memory aging badly. I also recall something about the flier. Sounds like my kinda citizen.

Isn't it amazing we also now have a Federal Reserve Governor (?) (New York?), Gerald Corrigan? That's kept the name fresh in my mind in recent months.

Sitting across the kitchen table from some tax clients last night, looking over all the overblown mutual fund names on their 401-K printouts, and their blank faces when asked what was in all those funds. I think I got them to consider switching to Treasury Direct by insisting they ask their "Investment Advisor" about the 0% stock returns from 1929-1954 and 1966-1982. I hammered on NASDAQ's 250 P/E ratio and Microsoft's fraudulent accounting. I'm sure they'll hear many reassuring words in reply from him/her.

Gold? Didn't even try. I'm not sure I want to be identified as "that guy who tried to get us to buy gold" if they're not really gonna get it. I'm still recovering from being "the guy who warned them about Y2k" a year ago. I kept those conversations pretty mild, and mostly kept my silence. Gold is even more threatening, and people need some pretty specific steps away from belief in "the System" before they'd think you were anything but a kook for recommending gold.

I can see the dilemma of the Wall Street types who know it's a rational investment to make on risk/reward fundamentals. But why open your mouth when a propaganda freight train is gonna run right over you. Even they have to wait for the public's anti-gold hypnosis to break.

$5 IndianLet's Look On the Bright Side#2829504/07/00; 22:46:03

Hello goldbugs and silverhounds, Tuesday was quite a round.

Positive Points:

1. Gold showed inverse sensetivity to the shock market, a new and improved awareness has finally arrived.

2. External forces are at work beyond the manipulators controls. Pressure on the dollar is building.

A. Japan's national debt is rising fast and they will at some point be forced to sell their US bonds to promote real growth as their "pump priming" methods are failing. Japan will see inter-Asian trade as the only alternative to the saturated product markets in the US. The US will be seen as a shrinking market and a resource colony. Mori-san is the man who can say "No", that is why he was chosen. There are no elections in Japan. Positions are filled with appointees then the vote is used to confirm who they chose. How many fish can he get to swim in his direction. Kind of like in America only ours talk alot more.

B. The European Central Banks want the Euro to be fully acceptable in exchange for Arab oil. If the Arabs decide to accept Euros on a large scale for their oil then for all practical purposes the Euro is as good as the Dollar. ECBs want European debt written in Euros and not dollars. That shift is real.

C. Latin American countries don't want their currencies replaced by the dollar because they have no sound method of collecting taxes. That is why they inflate. An inflation rate of 33% puts everyone in the 33% tax bracket. With zero inflation the governments go broke. So the wishful dreaming that Pax-Americana is going to sweep over Latin America and give a new home for big float is going to be a lot more difficult than the big boys think.

D. We see investors chasing after companies with real earnings, this means a continued slide and cascade down for all companies with faulty numbers. The whole de-emphasis of P/E ratios that prevailed to rationalize in insane valuations is now being brought to the light. Most of the tech stocks that are rallying on low volumes are held by weak hands quick to sell. The whole "quest for value" emphasis will lead people to continue selling into rallies and is the absolute opposite mindset of momentum investing. The Warren Buffet winning investor mentality is not buying into any of these sucker's rallies in the stratosphere. He started out as a fundamental pennystock investor. The trend to his reasoning would precipitate another wave down alot meaner than the last mini-crash. The way people say "You mean that was the big crash?" that is the master deception of the innocents. When insider selling continues unabated, you have most of the market going into distribution. After the last sucker has bought and the big boys are way short, they usually save large blocks of stock to dump suddenly to force a panic so their short positions go well into the money. When the big whales fight it's the little shrimp that get hurt.
E. Treasury Bill pattern shows a high extended handle. Either Treasuries will continue on up and top out later or they could rise slow and the high handle fails suddenly when the yen rallies. Gold would start cooking with a pan and handle failure in treasuries.

3. If gold isn't your game you could drool over the fundamentals of silver. Just don't foam at the mouth outside your residence. Lest they come to take you away, away. They don't want to confiscate the gold, actually with the way we think, they want to confiscate the goldbugs.

Bill Gates despises investments in computer crap. He owns 10% of PAAS. Newport News Ship........he's into the antithesis of the flakey computerworld he helped create. But in all seriousness, Timmy Leary had a brother named Reely Leary who ran away to Russia in the 60's and got scientific enough to draw up a mining plan and later on bilked a few greedy international investors out of millions and billions to start up the old mine in the tundra. "But Igor if we threaten to cut off their food they can get on the train. These free people are no good. We need prisoners who cannot leave so easy. Yes, but the prisoners we get cannot be so easily trained.
If we want the free people to stay then we have to make them happy and there is not enough vodka for them and for us too. We can trade palladium for vodka but we need alot of vodka first to open up the mine. Do you see my problem Igor? Drunk miners break the tips of the jackhammers. Prisoners were good when we had them but now we have to pay the workers and this &*%#@! democracy confuses me. Waving a gun around in the air with a 30 cent bullet used to get alot of ore in the cars.

My point was don't think playing silver stocks has the same viable unison with the price of silver when the silver mining companies are hyping their Russian mining operations that may move the first backhoe in 2010. Ashanti had a financial "tunnel collapse". Bankers stole the gold before it was even mined. Embezzled funds or railcars of ore sent to another refinery is not beyond the scope of the worlds smartest criminals.

"There must be 50 Ways to Close Down the Silver Mining Company" Hop on the bus Guss, They're drawning a new plan Stan. They got a new key Lee. Just listen to me.

"If the price of silver had merely gone up 12 cents on average we would have kept the mine open and made 3 million profit, but since it didn't stay up the 12 cents we decide to spend the money for mine development on further exploration drilling so we could float some more loans if we can find more ore because we really needed a sustained 25 cent rise in the price of silver to make a profit because we high graded the samples we floated the first loans on. So we are happy drilling more holes on the earth at every conceivable angle to draw this thing out to keep "my main guys" employed who are the only ones I can find who know anything in this decimated industry.

SharefinThe SILVER PLEDGE#2829604/07/00; 23:08:11

Now who's going to join in with THE SILVER PLEDGE?

So far we have 55 pledgers for an approximate total of 19,000 ounces.

If you filled out the first poll (which I scrapped) don't forget to redo your pledge again.

Make sure to spread the message & the url far and wide.

We need to get this up and running and out to as many websites as possible.

At the current rate we need 3000 pledgers to absorb a million ounces.

SHIFTYDOW / NASDAQ / PONZI#2829704/08/00; 00:12:28

Just for fun:

NASDAQ 4446.45 + DOW 11111.48 = 15557.93
15557.93 divided by 2 = 7778.96

So today we had a 7778.96 PONZI

It will be fun to keep track of the PONZI average.

At least until GOLD makes its move and the bubble POPS!

Peter AsherPonzi Average#2829804/08/00; 03:00:58

Good indicator, Shifty. Mathematically, and semantically!
LelandGulp!#2829904/08/00; 04:39:35

Queen's investment in
soars in value when trading starts


LONDON -- With regal insouciance, Britain's Queen Elizabeth II rode this
week's roller-coaster, held on to her stake and emerged as one of
her land's newest Internet millionaires Friday when an Internet company she
backed went public.
Her $160,000, 1.5 percent stake in PLC soared in paper
value to beyond $1.56 million -- just shy of 1 million pounds -- when the
company began trading on the Alternative Investment Market with an initial
offer price of $3.20.
The queen chose to invest in the company after it -- which plans to
produce the first full aerial map of her realm -- was permitted to dedicate to
her replicas of the Domesday Book, ordered by William the Conqueror
around 1086 as a survey of all the lands in England.
It is, of course, not quite the accepted thing to discuss Her Majesty's
wealth. "The position as far as this is concerned is that we never give details of
the queen's portfolio because it would lead to commercial endorsement," said
Penny Russell-Smith, a Buckingham Palace spokesman. says it has so far mapped 85 percent of Britain and plans
to make a profit by selling aerial maps to real estate companies and local
government offices. It also wants to create three-dimensional games that will
permit Internet users to simulate a flight around Britain. It plans to use the
proceeds from its share offering to develop its Web site and start aerial
mapping of other countries.

Educational/Research Purposes Only]

Black BladeNo PGMs here either! #283004/8/2000; 6:05:14

New York--Apr 7--The US Defense Logistics Agency said Friday that the quantity of platinum authorized for sale under the fiscal year 2000 annual materials plan has been exhausted. The DLA has also exhausted sales of palladium for fiscal year 2000. DLA was authorized to sell 125,000 ounces of platinum and 200,000 ounces of palladium for fiscal year 2000. (Story .18428)

Black Blade: Yep, another source of PGM's no longer available to the market. Russia is all talk - no action, but can't deliver. Their stockpiles are depleted, I don't care what CPM Group says, it's gone!

HenriBeesting 28281 and Leland 28284#283014/8/2000; 6:13:28

Truly, if a man can actually buy the equivalent of a silver dollar a day 7 x $5 = $35, after servicing all his debt and expense obligations load, he is actually in the black so to speak.

An individual today must not only service the largesse of or beloved govt with his paycheck, but also his own. The popular theme I recall when I was a kid was that it was good to have a mortgage because then you got a break from the govt tax rate and besides inflation was rampant so you can pay back your debt with inflated dollars. At 3% a year interest rates on a mortgage loan that almost made sense.

These days after the govt takes their cut, the average working guy must service the debt on his home and vehicles as well. Then there is money he is supposed to put aside for the kids ever escalating college costs and the amount he is supposed to put away for retirement which the govt will just take later anyway. Then there are the state and local taxes on whatever you have been prudent enough to place upon their radar screen. Oh yeah and then there is the food, water, electricity. Oops, don't forget life insurance so that if you stop running the race suddenly the family will have a small window of opportunity to come up to speed and replace you. State mandated car insurance is a biggie. Wouldn't want anyone to sue you for everything you don't really have. And then Health Care insurance. If the company is not starting to take that out of your pay or if you were insightful enough to fancy yourself an entrepeneur and own your own company...this is a major expense item. Home Insurance? Geez

How many today, after all those deductions for the trappings of today, can say they are in the black. Did you not put that deposit up for the kids college fund this week?
Have you forgone the expense of life insurance? Or did you not pay that credit card balance because you had to use the money for the car payment or grocery bill? You my friend are now in the red...better ask for a raise.

Can a man of the present or future remove himself from this self induced slavery? Do you really need health care insurance? Most people don't think about this because it is a company benefit. If you really got sick and could not pay your bill do you think you will die? Guess again...there is a government program hiding somewhere that will guarantee you adequate care to keep you alive and servicing the collective debt. In many cases you will receive more comprehensive care since the billing is easier than for the hospital to try and get the money from an HMO.

I'm guessing medical costs would get a quick dose of reality if medical insurance was suddenly outlawed.

HenriBut Time IS money in a debt based currency!?!#283024/8/2000; 6:22:24

CM comment: The singular constant feature of international monetary policy is change/evolution. It is not unreasonable to conclude that we are living in a day and age when we might see additional evolution in real time.

Henri says:
species evolution = time revolution/evolution
Only a change of perception is needed to evolve. Time is an illusion mostly fueled by the drive to produce money. If money were real again people would have more "time" to do the things that are important like find ways to get along with each other and clean up the mess we made instead of trying to scheme ways to rip each other off. Yes it will still take 1 day for the world to rotate but we will not need to be so preoccupied with what we need to get done in a day. That will allow evolution to follow its natural course.

Outlaw time! The time bandits are raging

$5 IndianTransitions to Extreme Volatility: New VS Old#283034/8/2000; 11:13:40

Chief market analyst for Merrill Lynch........Richard McCabe says he doesn't see enough pessimism in the market for that mini-crash to represent a true bottom and the market may rollover and test that bottom again. After that if volume is lower and panic selling is exhausted then we have a basis for whatever for two months or so. POG could spike up again with that retest.

Why a bear trend down for stocks has been established:

Here is my question. If I walked up to your door and offered you $4,000 more than what your car is presently worth. What would you do? You might say let me talk it over with my wife. Then you would both say I was an idiot and you could simply buy a better car later with the extra $4,000 . So you 'd come back and say "Sure the car is yours". With the cash in hand you would feel really smart. You loved that car but you just know there are better deals waiting for anyone with cash in hand.

Exactly that is why good stocks will go down. Not because there is unbelief in their fundamentals or earnings potential, but because there is a better than 60% chance of the same stocks falling to be repurchased cheaper in the future. The race now is for cash in hand. Why? Because so many stocks now are so cheap. Why stay with an inflated priced tech stock when this other stock just got hammered down and is now at a true bargain price and its fundamentals are just as good. Fund managers are switching to "Only buy stuff when it's on sale". "Wait for the sale, it's coming". "Buy when you see the blinking blue light". WELL, IF IT ISN'T GOING UP GET RID OF IT. That is what they are telling each other behind the scenes. You can feel it watching all the medium-large block sell orders going down. They don't want to spook this reprieve rally until they unload more. The whole tech market just went on sale. But....the biotech was even racing up at higher percentages and they went on sale two weeks ago. What gives???? So what?? Well this is what gives. Alot of these companies know they are going to miss numbers. Insider selling is what is collapsing the stock market. And the Fed cannot really support the stock market when panic selling takes over. There won't be a reprieve rally for most of these secondary companies. Stale longs will sell anyway and take their losses. So as the blue-chip techs go off in the next rally the secondary junk is going to miss the ride and get even cheaper. Finally the leaders get sold off and momentum dies. Momentum players turning into bottom fishers. Sector rotation turns into moving the "For Sale" sign to another sector. Finally some Warton School Phd says,"Hey, I think we've been in a bear market since January, look at the slope of these graphs. It only goes up if I turn the paper like this. This could be a major trend reversal, naaa too early to tell. Wait one more week.........." What happens when major investment houses go into cash? They need a place to put it. If the treasuries get sold off, and money flows back into stocks, will the same stocks be bought back driving them back to insane P/E ratios? OR will the money trickle on back with the bottom fishing in Biotech or basic materials industries, or whatever. It's going to trickle back into totally different areas long neglected with VALUE. So my point is that Tech is finished as a whole. This effects gold. The hopes of stale longs to get out even are going to evaporate and pessimism and gloom is going to set in. We were deceived? Or did they deceive themselves listening to lying analysts? Bottom fishing and tech stuff going down or sideways means a weaker dollar due to a lack of confidence and the mystery of gross overvaluations has not been resolved. Weak dollar means stronger gold.

As for gold and the POG, we know that an ailing stock market capped by insider selling is going to add fear and sap the dollar. It took 10 Billion Dollars worth of Yen injection to scare shorts into covering on the crash day to start the rally back up. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong. So time is on gold's side. They can all sleep so well shorting down the POG when no one wants it. Only a two pronged attack can keep gold down. Propoganda and massive shorting. The propoganda machine is failing. Do you really think investors believe all they hear? We are so used to being lied to that people use the financial news as a reverse barometer. Or else anyone with any money left does. So the more they slam gold with negative articles the more savy traders want to buy in. Greenspan couldn't crash the market before when he wanted to and he can't successfully support it when he might want to in the future. Markets are more powerful than governments.

The after-hours trading book available on Island ECN to be seen by all means extreme volatility is here to stay. The market makers on the NYSE would argue their wide spreads were justified because they eat stock in a falling market and take on ulcers providing liquidity when there is none. Everyone thinks the NYSE market makers are the lepers in the caves, unclean and not to be touched. Well when it "ALL goes electronic" and there are no market makers only thousands of independent traders posting bids and asks like Ebay for stocks, then liquidity can dry up in minutes and panics in individual stocks can occur with no one to give a whim of care to dampen. When the human market maker spreads the bid and ask or moves it up slow. That is necessary human involvement. Sure there is greed and sleaze and manipulation, but you are alot better off with old world style liquidity providers than the new boys in town ready to turn all stock markets into pure auctions with no human interacting element to calm a panic or cap an insane rally. So my point is that all my idealism of the noble NYSE market maker is a pipe dream on a wave that won't arrive because the Island ECN guys are the newer better gotta have its going to provide it. Low commission trades are the norm now. Brokers running to start their financial websites. It's the implosion of the window watchers. See all those tiny cars and people like ants down there? Well broker if you loose one more top client then you're going to become one of those little ants down there. We are headed for all the speed of the fast food drive through with the low quality sick-food feeling of living in an investment world full of anxiety and tension. Insomnia alone is enough to drive anyone to buy gold. I never mentioned the insomnia factor. Take three kruggerands and call me in the morning. Wow, I even feel better. The popular use of the limit order is death to the NYSE and the old market maker system. The concept of "no sold order flow" has them scared like roaches running for cover. Like free internet service I just set up. AOL is finished pal. They can give out CD-roms with 1000 free hours and can't compete with the clear connection I have with I can buy an ounce of gold using the savings from the free ISP.

Anyway to end my book here, the Young Turks at Island ECN are laying seige to the NYSE castle. The pompous fellows on the castle walls laugh at the contraption they use for the siege, but they can't see all the tunnels being dug under the grainaries and soon the siege will hasten to a close with the castle surrendering without a fight because they got starved out alot faster than they thought. Afterhours trading is not used by most investors except to monitor their stocks. And their watching turns into an addiction that needs to be fed. Once they actually place their first afterhours trade and it fills at their price.......Its over for NYSE. New and old companies will not want to be listed on NYSE with alot more traders becoming Nasdaq-only guys. Liquidity is becoming history for alot of paper. That means people get scared of stocks and they will not sit in cash forever. Gold is going to get popular once the liquidity crisis becomes fullblown with the trader's gravitation to fast-food stock ECNs. "Look honey for our stock the price just moved down and there are 357 orders to sell and 15 orders to buy 2 1/2 points below the market, What will happen tomarrow morning I wonder?"

What we saw on Tuesday was that dead cats really can bounce when thrown onto a floor covered with 10 billion yen.

I'm not saying all this because I want to scare people. I want to warn people about the pirates on Wallstreet who carefully rig markets and dump massive quantities of stock while they tell others to buy, buy, and buy somemore. They wave the friendly Union Jack for buying when they are in a minute going to change to the Jolly Roger and attack the same people they sold to. Happens everyday.

Wild HareIllegal gold#283044/8/2000; 11:27:28

Yes, this topic is a day or two old but it was the one that prompted me to get a password and had to wait a day to chime in.

First, thank you to CPM for the excellent service. And thank you to Trail Guide, Town Crier, et. al. for the interesting and informative dialog.

Yes it seems illegal gold, as with other banned substances would render an inflated black market value. I thought it might be of interest to those who are not familiar with the banned substance market to know that premium marijuana trades considerably higher than the current POG. $400/oz. is typical. I would love to see this tracked in the commodities charts. Waging war on a plant - what an utter failure and a very unfunny joke.

Of course, illegal drugs are necessary to fund the black budgets of the "coke & dagger" boys. Fly below the radar folks.

Acapulco Gold - get you some. :)

Cavan ManTrail Guide @ Augusta National#283054/8/2000; 13:51:19

I believe I caught a glimpse of our friend behind the green at 18 or, was it #16 tee box. (:>)

No updates till next week folks. Go TW!

tedwThanks#283064/8/2000; 13:53:24,

Thanks Blackbade for messaage #28290
White RoseWhat if there is a two stage rocket? (silver then gold)#283074/8/2000; 14:04:08

We all know a wide variety of events will cause a movement in the price of gold. The consensus is that is will take a true crash and/or a fall in the value in the dollar to start gold on a ride to a much higher level.

We all know there is a running deficit of silver. Once the surplus is over the price has to rise.

Timing is everything. What if the PPT et al. manage to keep the stock market/dollar up and the POG down; while silver starts exploding.

I know that if the price of silver goes up, it will affect the silver shorts, which may cause some financial hardships. But it is doubtful that this blow up in silver will capture the market's attention. It will be a "minor" sideshow for a time.

Lets say you have $50,000 invested in gold and $50,000 in silver. If the price of silver spikes to $50-100 and ounce, it may be possible to trade your silver for a lot of gold. I will let you do the math.

Work fast. Take physical delivery.

Wait 2-5 years for all the debt bubbles to be expelled from the economy. With luck you can invest in the stock market during the "real" recovery (not one of the false recoveries that will separate may from their money).

Any thoughts?

RayLRayL#283084/8/2000; 14:10:59

$5 Indian (4/8/2000; 11:13:40MDT - Msg ID:28303)

Many thanks for that enlightening and informative post. I have printed it out and plan to reread it later this evening.


IronHeadObtuse Ramblings On Coyotes and Badminton#283094/8/2000; 14:24:45


Having Sami Native blood corsing through my veins, I'm drawn to the Native people of this land we call America, and their acknowledgment of the Coyote. A creature they call the Trickster. For the Coyote is stealth like the night, he lives among us in our cities, fields, and markets. He is the one with the golden eye....he is us. When hungry, as is his constant lot in life, he seeks nourishment, which can only be fraught through the reality of life which exists by energy and work.

Badminton Games

In our midst, we have the badminton game and the birdie. It seems to be a birdie of gold to those on the sidelines watching the game. Actually the game has many arenas, which some call markets. Supposedly markets of nourishment, but actually markets of time and space and paper. As Sir Henri so aptly alluded today; time is but an illusion. One which markets depend upon for their existence. Contract dates, expiration dates, longwave dates, young lovers on dates, etc. etc. etc.

The players on the badminton court as well as the gallery on each side rooting for their player, all want the false birdie of gold to go in a direction of their liking. Long this volley, short that stroke, but please make it on the time line I desire so as I can make tea, which is at an assigned time by me.

Little do they see the space between the places where they think the birdie should be, and where the real birdie is today. For the real birdie is only for the golden eye of the Trickster to see.

The Trickster is us, and we have stolen the birdie.

By By Birdie


HI - HAT Cavan Man #283104/8/2000; 14:32:48

Gee, Wizz ! I wonder what's more importatant, Golf or Gold?

Well come to think of it, more people seem to like GOlf;DARNit!!

Galearis@White Rose#283114/8/2000; 14:36:46

You said:
"We all know there is a running deficit of silver. Once the surplus is over the price has to rise."

Yes, and that rise would likely be extraordinarily substantial - to $100+/oz at the peak. During the last most recent minor rallys, the most recent of which was initiated with last Tuesday's "mini crash", silver was seen to mirror gold's moves. This is a pattern broken from last September when, momentarily gold got away from "them", but silver did not. I don't know (who does?) whether this most recent mirror behavior between the two metals is a "new" recent pattern or not, but it is at least favourable, and may indicate that the supply problems are becoming a worry.

My problem in all this is what to do when the market goes "underground". I have no doubt in my mind that COMEX will follow the strategy shown when palladium ran out of above ground supplies in Tokyo. A "TOCOM" by COMEX will most assuredly follow when silver supplies are depleted. But ask yourself whether the palladium price per ounce is a real price or the paper price? I think it represents the paper price and palladium (and platinum, for that matter) sells for a much higher price "under the table" to physical delivery buyers than it does in the paper market. So the paper market is window dressing, yes, and represents a physical buy only "if" the metal(s) become available some time in the future. The paper is severely discounted.

So the real problem as I see it is 1) finding out the true price of the silver when one sells ones physical silver, and 2)where "the table" is located under which these transactions occur.

HI - HATWild Hare 28304#283124/8/2000; 14:43:59

I have thought about these price relationships for years.

Well it just proves, "all wealth comes from the land".

HI - HAT$5 Indian Ray L Pirate Games#283134/8/2000; 15:14:09

I think that at some point in the future, "dislocations", a core contingent of common stocks could well advance with the price of gold. Important franchises like Johnson&Johnson, Quaker Oats, etc., etc., etc., who have ongoing money making business plans could be viewed as a money substitute like stocks were in Germany in the 1930's hyper-inflation. I think in this period coming it's all the paper assets that are really just IOU'S are whats going to CRASH. People may want to hold Johnson&Johnson "money", rather than hyper-inflating bank money.

Of course it probably will be best to take no chances and stick to the real wealth money - GOLD.

CoBra(too)Another great article from FT's Barry Riley -#283144/8/2000; 15:28:32

on GE April 8 16.00
A call from Mortimer Duhm, the arch-bear. ...
Brokemichael A.G. Gluhm, away for the weekend, could not be reached for comment ....

TownCrierA second notice....#283154/8/2000; 15:45:10

for those who missed yesterday's announcement that the Hall has received its overdue facelift, and also an expanded index to include the latest round of entries.

Excellent reading material to "recharge your gold batteries" over the weekend.

TownCrierIMF Completes Off-Market Gold Sales#283164/8/2000; 16:02:00

IMF News Brief --- April 7, 2000

On December 8, 1999, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board adopted a decision authorizing off-market gold sales by the IMF of up to 14 million troy ounces, in order to generate the equivalent of SDR 2.226 billion (about US$3 billion) to help finance the IMF's contribution to debt relief and financial support for the world's poorest nations (see News Brief No. 99/62 and No. 99/57).

IMF Treasurer Eduard Brau announced today that this target was accomplished through seven off-market transactions conducted with Brazil and Mexico over the period December14, 1999 through April 5, 2000. A total of 12.944 million troy ounces of gold, equivalent to SDR 2.680 billion, were sold and accepted back immediately at the same price, in settlement of these members' obligations to the IMF. Thus, the gold sold by the IMF did not enter the market.

In accordance with the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF retained the book value of the gold, equivalent to SDR 35 (about US$47) per troy ounce, on its own account. The remainder of the proceeds, equivalent to SDR 2.226 billion were invested to generate income for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.

"We appreciate the cooperation of the Brazilian and Mexican authorities in the execution of these transactions," Mr. Brau stated, "which represent a major step toward funding the IMF's contribution to the HIPC Initiative."

TownCrierHere's what Reuters had to say on the IMF gold operation...#283174/8/2000; 16:09:22

By selling the gold at market prices and then accepting immediately back for payment, Reuters says "the deal creates windfall profits for the IMF because, under a quirk of international finances, IMF gold is valued at some $48 per ounce, while the market price is around $283."

Yep. Government agencies LOVE windfall profits. Some might say such "easy money" addictive.

Can you see how all governments might come to use such a scheme to generate the means to fund programs while at the same time putting a meaningful floor of gold under their currency?

Please think about this.

TownCrieris#283184/8/2000; 16:10:48

TownCrierIran moves to free up currency exchange transactions#283194/8/2000; 16:29:34

Baby steps...the world making progress toward sorting out the true "mathematics" between currencies.

(What happens when they realize the world is awash in dollars?)

Mr GreshamHOF / White Rose#283204/8/2000; 16:32:20

TC -- Thanks for the HOF tip-off. I don't go there often enough, and FOA was at his Supreme Bestest that week, wasn't he? I don't know why I missed it during January...

White Rose -- are you be-handled after the students in Germany who resisted Hitler -- Hans and Sophie Scholl and Christoph Probst -- and paid with their lives? If so, then you have chosen the noblest name amongst us all.

TownCrierECB sticking to its guns...#283214/8/2000; 16:44:45

No manipulation on behalf of the currency's exchange rate.
Think of the eventual unwinding of this with the same nonintervention policy. To wit, where would we be without Japan's very accommodative policy facilitating the unwinding of the yen carry...and even at that they struggle to keep the yen from burrying the dollar.

Cavan ManTowne Crier#283224/8/2000; 19:13:44

Methinks this Euro is a horse of a different color.
FarfelReg Howe Does It Again....A MUST-READ!#283234/8/2000; 20:20:45

More astonishing info detailing the apparent malfeasance of the Clinton administration and the infamous ESF fund, seemingly utilized for the suppression of the gold price from '96 until today WITHOUT REQUIRED CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL!

White RoseMr Gresham: you are right on my name#283244/8/2000; 20:30:47

I have lurked year for over a year before posting. I noticed many names with all kind of references. I chose a name that reflected youthful and futile resistance to that status quo that was everywhere.

This is not to suggest that our goals are so noble (or so futile). But occasionally we must be reminded that some who face terrible odds have paid dearly.

Chris PowellESF data match up with a scheme to suppress gold#283254/8/2000; 21:13:59

Reg Howe examines the data available about the
Exchange Stabilization Fund and concludes that
it matches a scheme to suppress the price of

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email
and get them immediately so you don't have
to go look for them, send an email to:

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TownCrierPutting Two and Two together on the IMF gold operations...#283264/8/2000; 21:23:54

From TownCrier (4/8/2000; 16:09 - Msg ID:28317):
>>>>>Here's what Reuters had to say ... "the deal creates windfall profits for the IMF because...IMF gold is valued at some $48 per ounce, while the market price is around $283."
Yep. Government agencies LOVE windfall profits. Some might say such "easy money" addictive.
Can you see how all governments might come to use such a scheme...<<<<<

While we all agree that the gold derivative markets are used as a means to suppress the price (and apparent value) of gold to reap the attendant benefits of the dollar duly "strengthened" thereby, the day approaches wherein the institutional benefits will be greater to let gold run.

Get yours while the getting is the give-away prices, that is. (The "getting of gold" is always "good"!)

TownCrierHere is what the IMF is doing with the "windfall"#283274/8/2000; 21:30:02

Given a clean slate, would you, as a sovereign entity, work to accumulate gold or another nation's debt?

How bright is the future of the dollar? Has its day in the Sun come to a close?

ElwoodStock Market on Monday#283284/8/2000; 22:31:19

All, here are a couple of links that you might be interested in.

April 4 update of CyclePro shows DJI (Dow Jones Industrials) making a horizontal triangle centered at approximately 11,100.

Friday's DJI seemed to complete the triangle (or at least maintain it) with an ending right around 11,100.^DJI&d=t

If you're technically minded, next week should be an interesting week.

Isn't there also a G-7 meeting next week? Didn't the Washington Accord come out of one of these G-7 meetings?

Peter AsherMr G. & White Rose#283294/8/2000; 23:43:14

Could you be so kind as to tell us the story about the event to which you refrered.
RugenI need Your help Swiss SNB Gold-Leasing#283304/9/2000; 3:27:33

The Newspaper "FINANZ und WIRTSCHAFT", dated April 8 2000,
states in an article by Mr.Peter Kuster regarding the (SNB) Swiss National Bank income for 1999 that the SNB has Gold
and income from Gold-LEASING in the amount of 11.7 Billion
(SFR) Swiss Franks at a value of SFR 4595.74 Per Kilo of Gold--aprox. 1/3 of market value.
I would like to write a few pointy questions to Mr.Jean
Pierre Roth, Vice-President of the SNB.
I need the help of the brilliant minds in this Forum to fashion these questions. Gold sale,why now? Why at these low prices? What is going on with Gold-Leasing through the Swiss National Bank? I probably will also post these questions in an open letter to the SNB in a Newspaper ad. The questions must be simple, but penetrate the clouded minds of the swiss people. The general feeling in the street(personal survey), is that Gold has no purpose or value, that all is well, everything is good, and the value of the Swiss franc is retained because everybody loves us.
So you see, delusion is not only a phenomena.
Copy to: Gata,Le Metropole Cafe,Peter Kuster

HI - HATGOLD#283314/9/2000; 5:43:38

Wilford Krug wrote. Gold, it is, "one of the most beautiful of the ninety-two elements and one of the heaviest metals known to science. It is the only metal that is yellow in it's natural state. It does not tarnish when exposed to air and does not rust when buried in the ground. It always retains its particular beauty,color and lustre. It is the most ductible and malleable of the metals. A troy ounce can be drawn into a fine wire 50 miles long or it can be beaten into a thin film which will cover 100 sqware feet--over a thousand times thinner than normal paper. Gold is virtually insoluble and proof against nature's reagents. It is inert to most acids and bases. Its refusal to disintegrate,rust or tarnish has resulted in its being regarded as something that can be counted on to look the same and feel the same a century or five centuries ahead. Gold is permanent Money. This is the undeniable Truth that has come down from pre-history until even now. It is the King of the 92 known elements that exist. All we can know for sure is that Existance --- Exists.
White RoseWhite Rose Story#283324/9/2000; 5:49:00

There is a request from Peter Asher for the story behind "White Rose". I have the sketchy memory of a group of German Christian youth who oppossed the Nazis. They wrote and distributed pamphlets in Munich. They used the name "White Rose". They were caught, tortured, and executed.

I did a search for White Rose on and find this book: The White Rose : Munich 1942-1943 by Inge Scholl, Dorothee Solle

Here is one reader's review:

A call to conscience from 1942, Nazi Germany.
Reviewer: JOYCE J. KATZBERG from Providence, Rhode Island
As a Jewish child growing up, I often heard the horror storiesof those who collaborated with Hitler and the National Socialist agenda. It wasn't until much later in life that I began to hear about those who resisted. This book, written by the surviving sister of two such
resisters, gives us a compelling account of the stories of a small group calling itself the White Rose consisting of students, soldiers and teachers who examined their consciences and engaged in rebellious activity.

Included here are the texts of many of the leaflets distributed by the White Rose. One wonders how modern readers would relate to such eloquence that draws from the poetry of Goette and other sources utilizing vocabulary beyond what is common in our dumbed down intitutions.

Ms. Solle's introduction to this book provides a context in which we might examine our own complicity with modern structures of annihilation.

I would highly recommend this book as text for classes in social or political history.

If the purpose of education is to encourage us to examine our contexts and choices, this book is an imperitive read.

(Other reviewers took this particular book to task for being based on the memories of the author which are not historically accurate; other books are recommended. These other books may be out of print.)

Those looking for more should search using the following terms: White Rose (Resistance group); Weisse Rose (Resistance group); Scholl family; Universitat Munchen Riot 1943; Anti-Nazi movement.

HenriIronHead Coyotes 28309 and debt currency vs fiat vs real money#283334/9/2000; 5:52:06

real bears no interest and hence is timeless in its value. It cannot be created, only recovered. It cannot be or destroyed except by nuclear transformation (difficult and expensive). It does not oxidize easily (I did not think it could oxide at all but on that I defer to Zenidea). It can be debased, but can also be rebased. When used as a proxy for the exchange of goods, the value of the gold itself is independent of the value of those real goods. It retains its proxy of value by agreement between men that gold itself is an honest medium of exchange. When we speak of the "market" value of gold we speak nonsense! To speak thusly is to attempt to attach to gold a time characteristic. This is a characteristic of contracts of debt and repayment, not of gold.

A debt currency must expand. Because to survive, it must reproduce itself by the time essential process called interest. When it is created faster than it is destroyed, its function as money ceases and its purpose as deception and debasement begins. That is not to say a debt currency has no value. Indeed, it has value by popular agreement that time is money os that it assumes the value attributed to time. Of what value is the promise of another? In a society of values and family based integrity and honor, the promise of another holds great value. Of what value is a promise in a society with no integrity, with no honor, with no families. When the inmates take over the asylum the coyotes can only survive by their stealth.

A fiat currency on the other hand represents nothing and is backed by nothing other than the agreement of men to hold it as a token of exchange...not unlike gold. But definitely unlike a debt currency. A debt currency is an instrument of common law and its value may be enforced by rule of law...wherein we find the indispensibility of government to uphold such commercial law and lawyers to explain to us how in reality laws are just suggestions.

The destruction of the perception of gold as money is driven by governments whose very existence is challenged by honesty among men and theives alike, family integrity and values of exchange judged between men (individuals) not by jurisprudence. That is value attached to transactions that do not engage "legal tender". Outlaw transactions.

Henriand further...#283344/9/2000; 6:17:07

Gold only appears to be timeless wealth...but only by the common agreement between men irrespective of their countries of origin despite their governances (self-inflicted or inflicted in general)attempts to detroy this idea. The gold itself, to be sure, is only a token of exchange which in the hearts of men represents honesty. Accumulations of gold are considered to be timeless wealth since they represent a family based work ethic and integrity that in tough times allows them the luxury of continuing to thrive. It is the accumulated savings of generations passed on to those with the same values and integrity. It is dispersed in the name of charity to those in need but who are deserving by acknowledgement of those same work ethic principles. It is likewise dispersed in commerce. And is lost by fools when they lose such integrity and value. And of course by piracy. Piracy, is a capital (government) offense. It occurs when men take it upon themselves to releive government vessels of their cargo. Government has no business in the ownership of gold therefore the appropriation of gold from the government for dispersal to the people is a crime against government not against its governed. A pirate commits a crime against the people when he hoards or buries his lucre. A pirate therefore is popular when he spends freely with the local populace and will be protected by the same. Even the people will turn against a pirate who knows not wherefore his freedom is seated. The government of the US has become a popular pirate. Yet it is a "mock" pirate for it only disperses debt currency of its own creation. It is well into the final stages of its timeline wherein the people discover that there has been ongoing deception. That pirate is no better off than he who has buried his filthy lucre. This pirate has been stealing from the people. This pirate will hang at the hand of the people not by the power of government. That is common justice. Using the term pirate for such an entity is in fact a disservice to the noble piracy trade. This rogue and scoundrel (he who steals from the people on such a grand scale) can only be called by one name. "Government"
Henrithe new pledge#283354/9/2000; 6:18:38

...and to the Republic, for which it used to stand...
Black BladePM report, emphasis on supply vs. deficit#283364/9/2000; 6:26:04

Interesting presentation from CPM Group. Contrast TOCOM default on Pd, and extrapolate to other PMs after reading this article. The emphasis is on Ag and PGMs.
HI - HATComman Peoples Aversion To Gold#283374/9/2000; 6:33:36

"The People",;, A poem by Tomasso Campanella.

The people is a beast of muddy brain
That knows not its own force, and therefore stands
Loaded with wood and stone; the powerless hands
Of a mere child guide it with bit and rein;

One kick would be enough to break the chain;
But the beast fears, and what the child demands,
It does; nor its own terror understands,
Confused and stupified by bugbears vain.

Most wonderful with its own hands it ties
And gags itself--gives itself death and war
For pence doled out by Kings from its own store

Its own are all things between earth and heaven;
But this it knows not; and if one arise
To tell this truth, it kills him unforgiven.

HenriPonderings for Sunday Morning#283384/9/2000; 7:31:27

Thank you Black Blade for the citation of the poem "The People" it is profound.

The "time" that we have been allotted here in this place (earth at this point in its evolution) is a precious gift from God. It is meant to be used for the continued gathering of experience in interacting with other souls both alike and unlike ourselves. When we attach further meaning to this concept...this illusion we call "time", such as "time is money", we debase it as surely as adding copper to gold debases it.

When we come to the realization that we are all one, and that what we do to each other we do to ourselves, we can begin to see beyond the illusion. We are forgiven our trespass (only) as we forgive those who trespass upon us.
The mind is the seat of anger and loathing, the heart is the seat of love and kindness and those things of a spiritual nature. It was man himself, who took it upon his own mind to presume to be the master of his destiny. Our anger arises in our minds when we are defeated in this purpose. Our will is defeated when it is contrary to the "will" of God...that which IS...the ultimate truth. We are sucessful in the long run only when our purpose is harmoniuos with the ultimate truth...the "will" of God. Our mind confuses us. It is the curse of the "forbidden fruit of the Tree of Knowledge". That we would think ourselves as something unique and different from God was the first blaspheme that ejected us from the "Garden of Eden".

Those that see beyond the illusion of self, of time, see that there is heaven right here on earth and find happiness in the harmony. That which angers others affects them not.

HI - HATHenri Why We Face Bankruptcy And Hyperinflation#283394/9/2000; 7:35:38

We face bankruptcy and hyperinflation because in nature and physics there can be no perpetual motion machines. Fractional Reserve banking and Fiat attempt this feat but as in every scheme of this nature, it is doomed to within a timeline.

The Second Law Of Thermodynamics, fundamentaly is this:....
"An isolated material system never passes through the same state twice. Each state decreases the available energy". In short, there can be no perpetual motion.

My take on this is that Fiat expands so as to never be able to satisfy settlement of its debted creation and further, its value must decrease in available energy of what it can obtain of physical materials. Its issuance can theoreticaly be infinite, but what it can purchase is not.

Hence , Bankruptcy and Hyperinflation.

SteveHProtecting Gold#283404/9/2000; 8:22:26

The following is the preface to a February 1982 study by Congress on the Second Amendment. Note that this is an official report by a Congressional Subcommittee. This report points out that 1)the right to keep and bear arms is a natural right and is only guaranteed and not created by the Constitution; 2)the reason the 14th Amendment doesn't pass it along to the states is because the 14th Amendment only deals with rights that were created by the Constitution, which would infer that natural rights pass along to the States by virtue of their being natural; 3) keeping and bearing arms is essential to a free society; 4)(my conclusion) any attempt to disarm America by limiting the supply of ammunition or weapons at the source or manufacturer or by laws requiring registrations is unconstituional and unpatriotic and weakens America's fabric, which makes it questionably treasoness.


"To preserve liberty, it is essential that the whole body of the people always possess arms, and be taught alike, especially when young, how to use them." (Richard Henry Lee, Virginia delegate to the Continental Congress, initiator of the Declaration of Independence, and member of the first Senate, which passed the Bill of Rights.)

"The great object is that every man be armed . . . Everyone who is able may have a gun." (Patrick Henry, in the Virginia Convention on the ratification of the Constitution.)

"The advantage of being armed . . . the Americans possess over the people of all other nations . . . Notwithstanding the military establishments in the several Kingdoms of Europe, which are carried as far as the public resources will bear, the governments are afraid to trust the people with arms." (James Madison, author of the Bill of Rights, in his Federalist Paper No. 46.)

"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed." (Second Amendment to the Constitution.)

In my studies as an attorney and as a United States Senator, I have constantly been amazed by the indifference or even hostility shown the Second Amendment by courts, legislatures, and commentators. James Madison would be startled to hear that his recognition of a right to keep and bear arms, which passed the House by a voice vote without objection and hardly a debate, has since been construed in but a single, and most ambiguous Supreme Court decision, whereas his proposals for freedom of religion, which he made reluctantly out of fear that they would be rejected or narrowed beyond use, and those for freedom of assembly, which passed only after a lengthy and bitter debate, are the subject of scores of detailed and favorable decisions. Thomas Jefferson, who kept a veritable armory of pistols, rifles and shotguns at Monticello, and advised his nephew to forsake other sports in favor of hunting, would be astounded to hear supposed civil libertarians claim firearm ownership should be restricted. Samuel Adams, a handgun owner who pressed for an amendment stating that the "Constitution shall never be construed . . . to prevent the people of the United States who are peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms," would be shocked to hear that his native state today imposes a year's sentence, without probation or parole, for carrying a firearm without a police permit.

This is not to imply that courts have totally ignored the impact of the Second Amendment in the Bill of Rights. No fewer than twenty-one decisions by the courts of our states have recognized an individual right to keep and bear arms, and a majority of these have not only recognized the right but invalidated laws or regulations which abridged it. Yet in all too many instances, courts or commentators have sought, for reasons only tangentially related to constitutional history, to construe this right out of existence. They argue that the Second Amendment's words "right of the people" mean "a right of the state" — apparently overlooking the impact of those same words when used in the First and Fourth Amendments. The "right of the people" to assemble or to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures is not contested as an individual guarantee. Still they ignore consistency and claim that the right to "bear arms" relates only to military uses. This not only violates a consistent constitutional reading of "right of the people" but also ignores that the second amendment protects a right to "keep" arms. These commentators contend instead that the amendment's preamble regarding the necessity of a "well regulated militia . . . to a free state" means that the right to keep and bear arms applies only to a National Guard. Such a reading fails to note that the Framers used the term "militia" to relate to every citizen capable of bearing arms, and that the Congress has established the present National Guard under its own power to raise armies, expressly stating that it was not doing so under its power to organize and arm the militia.

When the first Congress convened for the purpose of drafting a Bill of Rights, it delegated the task to James Madison. Madison did not write upon a blank tablet. Instead, he obtained a pamphlet listing the State proposals for a bill of rights and sought to produce a briefer version incorporating all the vital proposals of these. His purpose was to incorporate, not distinguish by technical changes, proposals such as that of the Pennsylvania minority, Sam Adams, or the New Hampshire delegates. Madison proposed among other rights that "That right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed; a well armed and well regulated militia being the best security of a free country; but no person religiously scrupulous of bearing arms shall be compelled to render military service in person." I n the House, this was initially modified so that the militia clause came before the proposal recognizing the right. The proposals for the Bill of Rights were then trimmed in the interests of brevity. The conscientious objector clause was removed following objections by Elbridge Gerry, who complained that future Congresses might abuse the exemption to excuse everyone from military service.

The proposal finally passed the House in its present form: "A well regulated militia, being necessary for the preservation of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." In this form it was submitted into the Senate, which passed it the following day. The Senate in the process indicated its intent that the right be an individual one, for private purposes, by rejecting an amendment which would have limited the keeping and bearing of arms to bearing "For the common defense".

The earliest American constitutional commentators concurred in giving this broad reading to the amendment. When St. George Tucker, later Chief Justice of the Virginia Supreme Court, in 1803 published an edition of Blackstone annotated to American law, he followed Blackstone's citation of the right of the subject "of having arms suitable to their condition and degree, and such as are allowed by law" with a citation to the Second Amendment, "And this without any qualification as to their condition or degree, as is the case in the British government." William Rawle's "View of the Constitution" published in Philadelphia in 1825 noted that under the Second Amendment: "The prohibition is general. No clause in the Constitution could by a rule of construction be conceived to give to Congress a power to disarm the people. Such a flagitious attempt could only be made under some general pretense by a state legislature. But if in blind pursuit of inordinate power, either should attempt it, this amendment may be appealed to as a restraint on both." The Jefferson papers in the Library of Congress show that both Tucker and Rawle were friends of, and corresponded with, Thomas Jefferson. Their views are those of contemporaries of Jefferson, Madison and others, and are entitled to special weight. A few years later, Joseph Story in his "Commentaries on the Constitution" considered the right to keep and bear arms as "the palladium of the liberties of the republic", which deterred tyranny and enabled the citizenry at large to overthrow it should it come to pass.

Subsequent legislation in the second Congress likewise supports the interpretation of the Second Amendment that creates an individual right. In the Militia Act of 1792, the second Congress defined "militia of the United States" to include almost every free adult male in the United States. These persons were obligated by law to possess a firearm and a minimum supply of ammunition and military equipment. This statute, incidentally, remained in effect into the early years of the present century as a legal requirement of gun ownership for most of the population of the United States. There can by little doubt from this that when the Congress and the people spoke of a "militia", they had reference to the traditional concept of the entire populace capable of bearing arms, and not to any formal group such as what is today called the National Guard. The purpose was to create an armed citizenry, which the political theorists at the time considered essential to ward off tyranny. From this militia, appropriate measures might create a "well regulated militia" of individuals trained in their duties and responsibilities as citizens and owners of firearms.

If gun laws in fact worked, the sponsors of this type of legislation should have no difficulty drawing upon long lists of examples of crime rates reduced by such legislation. That they cannot do so after a century and a half of trying — that they must sweep under the rug the southern attempts at gun control in the 1870-1910 period, the northeastern attempts in the 1920-1939 period, the attempts at both Federal and State levels in 1965-1976 — establishes the repeated, complete and inevitable failure of gun laws to control serious crime.

Immediately upon assuming chairmanship of the Subcommittee on the Constitution, I sponsored the report which follows as an effort to study, rather than ignore, the history of the controversy over the right to keep and bear arms. Utilizing the research capabilities of the Subcommittee on the Constitution, the resources of the Library of Congress, and the assistance of constitutional scholars such as Mary Kaaren Jolly, Steven Halbrook, and David T. Hardy, the subcommittee has managed to uncover information on the right to keep and bear arms which documents quite clearly its status as a major individual right of American citizens. We did not guess at the purpose of the British 1689 Declaration of Rights; we located the Journals of the House of Commons and private notes of the Declaration's sponsors, now dead for two centuries. We did not make suppositions as to colonial interpretations of that Declaration's right to keep arms; we examined colonial newspapers which discussed it. We did not speculate as to the intent of the framers of the second amendment; we examined James Madison's drafts for it, his handwritten outlines of speeches upon the Bill of Rights, and discussions of the second amendment by early scholars who were personal friends of Madison, Jefferson, and Washington while these still lived. What the Subcommittee on the Constitution uncovered was clear — and long lost — proof that the second amendment to our Constitution was intended as an individual right of the American citizen to keep and carry arms in a peaceful manner, for protection of himself, his family, and his freedoms. The summary of our research and findings form the first portion of this report.

In the interest of fairness and the presentation of a complete picture, we also invited groups which were likely to oppose this recognition of freedoms to submit their views. The statements of two associations who replied are reproduced here following the report of the Subcommittee. The Subcommittee also invited statements by Messrs. Halbrook and Hardy, and by the National Rifle Association, whose statements likewise follow our report.

When I became chairman of the Subcommittee on the Constitution, I hoped that I would be able to assist in the protection of the constitutional rights of American citizens, rights which have too often been eroded in the belief that government could be relied upon for quick solutions to difficult problems.

Both as an American citizen and as a United States Senator I repudiate this view. I likewise repudiate the approach of those who believe to solve American problems you simply become something other than American. To my mind, the uniqueness of our free institutions, the fact that an American citizen can boast freedoms unknown in any other land, is all the more reason to resist any erosion of our individual rights. When our ancestors forged a land "conceived in liberty", they did so with musket and rifle. When they reacted to attempts to dissolve their free institutions, and established their identity as a free nation, they did so as a nation of armed freemen. When they sought to record forever a guarantee of their rights, they devoted one full amendment out of ten to nothing but the protection of their right to keep and bear arms against governmental interference. Under my chairmanship the Subcommittee on the Constitution will concern itself with a proper recognition of, and respect for, this right most valued by free men.

Orrin G. Hatch, Chairman
Subcommittee on the Constitution
January 20, 1982

SteveHProtecting Gold#283414/9/2000; 8:40:50

For the remainder of the Congressional subcommittee's report, go to above link.

Here is another teaser:

Following adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment, however, the Supreme Court held that that Amendment's prohibition against states depriving any persons of their federal "privileges and immunities" was to be given a narrow construction. In particular, the "privileges and immunities" under the Constitution would refer only to those rights which were not felt to exist as a process of natural right, but which were created solely by the Constitution. These might refer to rights such as voting in federal elections and of interstate travel, which would clearly not exist except by virtue of the existence of a federal government and which could not be said to be "natural rights". 59 This paradoxically meant that the rights which most persons would accept as the most important — those flowing from concepts of natural justice — were devalued at the expense of more technical rights. Thus when individuals were charged with having deprived black citizens of their right to freedom of assembly and to keep and bear arms, by violently breaking up a peaceable assembly of black citizens, the Supreme Court in United States v. Cruikshank 60 held that no indictment could be properly brought since the right "of bearing arms for a lawful purpose" is "not a right granted by the Constitution. Neither is it in any manner dependent upon that instrument for its existence." Nor, in the view of the Court, was the right to peacefully assemble a right protected by the Fourteenth Amendment: "The right of the people peaceably to assemble for lawful purposes existed long before the adoption of the Constitution of the United States. In fact, it is and has always been one of the attributes of citizenship under a free government. . . .It was not, therefore, a right granted to the people by the Constitution." Thus the very importance of the rights protected by the First and Second Amendment was used as the basis for the argument that they did not apply to the states under the Fourteenth Amendment. In later opinions, chiefly Presser v. Illinois 61 andMiller v. Texas 62 the Supreme Court adhered to the view. Cruikshank has clearly been superseded by twentieth century opinions which hold that portions of the Bill of Rights — and in particular the right to assembly with which Cruikshank dealt in addition to the Second Amendment — are binding upon the state governments. Given the legislative history of the Civil Rights Acts and the Fourteenth Amendment, and the more expanded views of incorporation which have become accepted in our own century, it is clear that the right to keep and bear arms was meant to be and should be protected under the civil rights statutes and the Fourteenth Amendment against infringement by officials acting under color of state law.

oldgoldEuropeans Turning Against US?#283424/9/2000; 8:55:56

But they continue to finance outsize US trade deficits and cooperate with Washington's gold suppression agenda by leasing bullion at absurdly low rates to short sellers.

More and More, Europeans Find Fault With U.S.

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ARIS, April 8 -- Just read the title of his new book and you'll get an idea of Noël
Mamère's perspective: "No Thanks, Uncle Sam."

Mr. Mamère, an outspoken though hardly extreme member of the French Parliament, has
devoted an entire book to his argument that America is a worrisome society these days. It has
a record number of armed citizens. It embraces the death penalty, turns the poor away when
they need medical care, and its legislators have failed to approve a nuclear test ban. Yet, argues
Mr. Mamère, the United States throws its weight around and would have the entire world
follow in its steps.

At this moment, he says in his closing chapter, "it is appropriate to be downright

In France, indeed in Europe, Mr. Mamère is by no means alone in his criticism of the United
States. Wander a French bookstore these days and you will find any number of catchy titles
("The World Is Not Merchandise," "Who Is Killing France? The American Strategy,"
"American Totalitarianism" to name a few) deploring the American way -- from its creation of
a society ruled by profit to depictions of the United States as an unchecked force on its way
to ruling the world.

The books are only one sign of what experts say is a growing backlash of anti-Americanism.
More and more often, Europeans talk about America as a menacing, even dangerous force
intent on remaking the world in its image. And, like Mr. Mamère, many members of Europe's
political, cultural and intellectual elite are using a kind of moral calculator to deplore the
American model as severely wanting.

Poking fun at America has always been a European pastime, particularly among the French.
In the past, Americans have been ridiculed as Bermuda-shorts-wearing louts who call
strangers by their first names and know nothing about the good life. But today's criticism is
far from being an amusing rejection of food rituals. Experts say that it has a virulence and an
element of fear never seen before.

"With the fall of the Berlin Wall, America was left as the only superpower," said Stéphane
Rozés, the director general of CSA Opinion, which conducts many surveys for news
organizations. "And there is a great deal of fear out there that the strength of America's
economy will impose not only economic changes but social changes as well. What they see is
an America that has the ability to impose its values and they are not values that the Europeans
believe in."

The Europeans read menace in a wide range of recent events. Far from seeing America's
involvement in Kosovo as a hand of support from across the Atlantic, for instance, many
Europeans saw it as an American manipulation of NATO. And the humiliating fact that the
intervention would not have been possible without American air power only rammed home the
perception of America's military superiority, and of European deficiency.

But suspicion runs high in other areas as well. The Clinton administration's cheerleading --
for instance, its repeated description of the United States as being the "indispensable" nation
-- strikes a threatening chord here. And recent disputes such as America's decision last year to
impose an import tax on goods like Roquefort cheese and foie gras because the Europeans
would not accept hormone-enhanced beef from the United States only fuels the European
sense that the United States is a bully.

In Europe, these days, the World Trade Organization -- which sanctioned the American action
-- is routinely dismissed as a tool of American interests.

The idea that the United States is already using its vast satellite and spy networks for
industrial espionage is readily accepted here, as recent debate in the European Union on the
Echelon electronic surveillance system showed. The United States denied the charges, but the
European bloc is still mulling an investigation. Again, the size and scope of the surveillance
system make Europe feel dwarfed.

Even the recent debacle over picking a managing director for the International Monetary Fund
fueled the sense among some Europeans that the United States can do whatever it wants. In
Washington, government officials let it be known that they were opposing the first German
candidate because, they said, no one in Europe wanted to do the dirty work of pointing out his
inadequacies. That version of events did not get much press here. In Germany, the American
veto power provoked snide remarks.

"We have discovered that the superpower sees its global role not only in the military area but
also in setting the rules of globalization through the I.M.F," pronounced Michael Steiner,
chief diplomatic adviser to Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, in the middle of the controversy.

To be sure, the average European is embracing much that comes from the United States. Its
films, its music, its fashion and, even if no-one in France particularly cares to admit it, its fast
food. The weekly best-seller list shows more than half the top selling novels in France are
translations of American books. There are frequent complaints of a brain drain as young
people flock to Silicon Valley and elsewhere in America to get their start in life.

But at the same time the view of a belligerent United States is growing too. Polls conducted
by CSA in the last few years suggest that Europeans have some extremely negative views of
the United States. In April last year, 68 percent of the French said they were worried about
America's status as a superpower. Only 30 percent said there was anything to admire across
the Atlantic. Sixty-three percent said they did not feel close to the American people.

Another CSA poll in September 1998, which compared the attitudes of the Germans, Spanish,
French, Italian and British toward the United States, found they had deep reservations too.
The Italians seemed to appreciate America the most. But they still showed profound concern
about the American model. Between 57 and 60 percent said America's democracy and
economy were worth admiring. But 56 to 62 percent said Italians should not look to America
for inspiration on their way of life or their culture.

"We have the impression that America has no more enemy," says Michel Winock, a
professor at the Institut d'Études Politiques de Paris who often writes on the subject of
anti-Americanism. "It does what it likes now when it wants. Through NATO it directs
European affairs. Before we could say we were on America's side. Not now. There is no

On some social issues, the United States and Europe do seem to be going in opposite
directions. One that gets a lot of attention is the death penalty, which has either been abolished
or suspended by all members of the European Union but is now legal in 38 states. Coming
executions are often carefully followed here as examples of barbarism, and American
diplomats say they are bombarded with questions about them. The fact that many recent
executions have taken place in Texas also colors -- negatively -- European commentators'
views of Gov. George W. Bush.

But other aspects of America are deplored too. Essayists have a field day with descriptions of
the homeless on the streets, women in jail forced to give birth in handcuffs, drugs, police
violence, racism, and what they see as a puritanism that invades people's private lives, the
prime example being the Monica Lewinsky affair.

"Never has America been so loved and so hated," says the novelist Pascal Bruckner, who has
also written on anti-Americanism. "But in some ways America should be glad. We are not
condemning the Russians for a lack of morality. We don't care. They don't count."

Felix Rohatyn says he has felt the change of attitude take place since 1997, when he arrived in
Paris as the American ambassador.

"The anti-Americanism today encompasses not a specific policy like Iranian sanctions but a
feeling that globalization has an American face on it and is a danger to the European and
French view of society," Mr. Rohatyn said in an interview. "There is the sense that America is
such an extraordinary power that it can crush everything in its way. It is more frustration and
anxiety now than plain anti-Americanism."

Mr. Rohatyn, like many others, says it is hard to measure the consequences of this attitude,
though there are no doubt many. "It impacts most things," he said. "Not that it makes
transactions impossible, but it certainly puts a different slant on them. It totally negates the
notion that our interest is also in their interest. It creates the totally opposite point of view --
that only the weakening of America can be good for them."

Such an attitude, for instance, fed a recent frenzy of concern in France that American pension
fund investments in French companies might be promoting layoffs of French workers to
benefit American retirees.

"Well, that's just not the case," Mr. Rohatyn said. "That is not the way things work, but it is a
perfect example of that anti-American view at work."

Some Americans believe that part of the problem is that globalization has meant an increase in
Americans doing business abroad with methods that do not sit well with Europeans. These
Americans say they tend to try to cut short discussion and value quick decisions. Europeans
tend to take longer and look for consensus.

But the French, and other Europeans, often mention Americans' lack of knowledge about
anything European and their unwillingness to learn as a major aggravating factor.

Mr. Bruckner described how when he was living in San Diego his landlady asked him how
was his queen, when France has not had one since the 19th century. Mr. Mamère begins his
book with a story about how Steve Forbes, at a recent Davos meeting, invoked the image of a
Charlemagne who unified Europe two centuries ago. Charlemagne died more than 1,000
years ago and is usually billed as a conqueror, not a unifier.

"Omnipotence and ignorance," Mr. Mamère concludes about America in his first chapter. "It
is a questionable cocktail."

Mr. Mamère's book, written with Olivier Warin, has not been published in America, nor does
he expect it to be. "It would be great if they read some of what we write, but they do not," he
said. "It would be great if they saw what they looked like from over here. But they are not
interested. The Americans are so sure of themselves. They think they are the best in the world,
that they are way ahead of everyone and everyone needs to learn from them."

LelandHow Much Longer? When Will Wall Street Crash? Some Musings from Austrailia...#283434/9/2000; 9:07:30

Consider life after the bubble

Date: 10/04/00

By ROSS GITTINS, Economics Editor

It's time to issue a warning to punters: every economic forecast you hear rests on the unstated
assumption that life on Wall Street continues as normal.

But this reminder also carries a warning for the old pros: if you're confident of what the future holds
for US official interest rates, our official rate and the value of our dollar, you're living in fairyland.

Every economist I speak to believes that Wall Street is caught up in a speculative bubble and that its
good times can't last. But not one of them has allowed for such a course-changing event in their

Of course, there's a simple and innocent explanation for this seeming negligence: since there's no way
of knowing just when the Street party will end, there's no way to include it in your forecast.

But, needless to say, when the day does arrive, all forecasts will be instantly "inoperative". And those
that replace them will be very different.

My point is that the time's arrived when both punters and pros need to be more conscious of the
possibility that our present expectations could be thrown awry at any moment.

Though it's too soon to say the bubble is bursting, Wall Street's gyrations over the past fortnight make it
reasonable to wonder if that long-expected event may soon be at hand. And that makes it reasonable
to ponder some post-bubble scenarios.

Hope springs eternal, even in the breasts of dismal economists. Many are entertaining the hope that the
bubble won't burst so much as spring a leak. There won't be an almighty crash à la October 1987, just
an orderly transition to a "bear market" in which share prices gently subside.

I fear this is the triumph of hope over experience. It doesn't fit with the dynamics of positive feedback
("momentum trading", if you prefer). As the lauded US economist Franco Modigliani said last week,
"there is no bubble that quietly deflates. A bubble by its nature will burst."

There can be no neat "rotation" from speculative tech stocks to blue-chip industrials (or to bonds).
When the Nasdaq comes down, wealth will be destroyed. It ceases to exist - and so can't simply be
transferred to the Dow.

Nor is it realistic to hope that blue-chip share prices will hold steady - or even rise a little - while tech
stocks crash. Panic is far too contagious to make that likely. When the bubble bursts, the whole
sharemarket will suddenly be on the nose and all share prices are likely to fall, even if some fall a lot
further than others.

The first thing to note is that the fortunes of Wall Street - as best measured by the all-embracing
Wilshire 5000 index - will have powerful implications for the future course of US monetary policy.

Alan Greenspan's confusing remarks last week about how he's not targeting the sharemarket, and his
disingenuous claims about monetary policy's inability to influence share valuations (!), need to be
interpreted with care.

The most plausible interpretation is that he, too, is expecting the bubble to burst at any time, and is
setting up his alibi: when Wall Street crashes, don't blame me.

His desire to avoid blame for the impending crash makes it unlikely he'll do anything unusual that could
trigger it, or be claimed to have triggered it, such as switching to a 50-basis-point tightening or pulling
on a surprise tightening between meetings.

No, he'll keep his head down by sticking to Plan A: continuing the series of well-signalled, 25-point
tightenings after each monetary policy meeting until something gives. So if we get nothing more than
further wobbles on Wall Street, the 25-point tightening on May 16 will go ahead as expected.

But here's the point: because share prices are driving the "wealth effect" he clearly finds so worrying,
whenever it is that we get a truly major correction on Wall Street - as measured by the Wilshire - Dr
Greenspan can be expected to call a pause in his regular tightenings while he waits to see what

And once we get a full-blown crash with all the scary trimmings, the tightening episode will be finito.
Indeed, once he's satisfied that the monster is truly dead - that the speculators have gone out
backwards, that the blow to confidence is lasting and that the wealth effect has gone into reverse - Dr
Greenspan will start easing policy.

The next thing to consider is the likely implications for the US dollar. Will it still be riding high while
foreign investors are taking what's left of their money home and American consumers are slashing
their consumption of imports? I doubt it.

At present, the forex market has the future all signed and sealed: the US Fed will go on tightening for
the rest of the year, the differential between US and Australian official rates will get ever wider and so
the risks for the Aussie dollar are uniformly downward.

But the future isn't nearly so clear-cut. Wall Street could throw this scenario out the window at any
moment. It bears thinking about.

[Thanks to SIDNEY MORNING HERALD, Fair Use for Educational/
Research Purposes Only]

SteveHProtecting Gold#283444/9/2000; 9:13:15

Finally, recently, an issue of enforcement of existing Federal laws concerning guns made it to the news when the NRA took on the Executive branch. The below offers an insight as to the political pressure the BATF has been under since 1982 to not enforce Federal laws because it made criminals out of innocent people. Yet, now we again have pressure to enforce laws that this Congressional subcommittee says are questionably constitutional.

-- Congress passes laws that are questionably Constitutional
-- BATF must enforce these laws, when they do, they end up making criminals out of innocent people who possess firearms for legitimate reasons.
-- Public pressure makes the BATF not enforce these laws.
-- Congress is pressured to pass more laws.
-- NRA says no more laws, enforce the ones you have.
-- Circle repeats.

I say:

-- Remove all laws from all books that make a person a criminal for possessing or bearing any weapon that could be used to defend oneself from criminals, an oppressive government, or an enemy of the State.

-- Create a national, uniform, CCW law that permits law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons in all locations with few exceptions.

-- Repeal any law that makes it illegal to own a weapon because it contains too many bullets or fires too fast. The point here is that, if the potentially oppressive government or enemy or criminal has weapons that are superior then the citizen should have right to keep and bear same.

-- Repeal or prevent any law requiring gun registration or a license to buy or possess a gun.

-- Release all persons who were criminalized by laws that are unconstitutional or that made a criminal for the mere possession or bearing of any gun.

-- Restore full citizenry rights to the same person immediately above.

-- Make it illegal for any law enforcement agency to keep or damage any confiscated goods in the enforcement of any of the above unconstitutional laws.

-- Make it legal to sue the above agencies for the immediate act above.

It is extremely important to understand why the right to keep and bear arms is a natural right. The same applies to the possession of gold under the 9th Amendment. No law should ever be passed that would cause the confisication of any gold or any gun. The purpose of the Second Amendment is simply to be a deterrance against the individual by other individuals or the State. To infringe in any manner this right is a travesty and highly unpatriotic and questionably treasoness.

from the link above...

"Based upon these hearings, it is apparent that enforcement tactics made possible by current federal firearms laws are constitutionally, legally, and practically reprehensible. Although Congress adopted the Gun Control Act with the primary object of limiting access of felons and high-risk groups to firearms, the overbreadth of the law has led to neglect of precisely this area of enforcement. For example the Subcommittee on the Constitution received correspondence from two members of the Illinois Judiciary, dated in 1980, indicating that they had been totally unable to persuade BATF to accept cases against felons who were in possession of firearms including sawed-off shotguns. The Bureau's own figures demonstrate that in recent years the percentage of its arrests devoted to felons in possession and persons knowingly selling to them have dropped from 14 percent down to 10 percent of their firearms cases. To be sure, genuine criminals are sometimes prosecuted under other sections of the law. Yet, subsequent to these hearings, BATF stated that 55 percent of its gun law prosecutions overall involve persons with no record of a felony conviction, and a third involve citizens with no prior police contact at all."

"The Subcommittee received evidence that the BATF has primarily devoted its firearms enforcement efforts to the apprehension, upon technical malum prohibitum charges, of individuals who lack all criminal intent and knowledge. Agents anxious to generate an impressive arrest and gun confiscation quota have repeatedly enticed gun collectors into making a small number of sales — often as few as four — from their personal collections. Although each of the sales was completely legal under state and federal law, the agents then charged the collector with having "engaged in the business" of dealing in guns without the required license. Since existing law permits a felony conviction upon these charges even where the individual has no criminal knowledge or intent numerous collectors have been ruined by a felony record carrying a potential sentence of five years in federal prison. Even in cases where the collectors secured acquittal, or grand juries failed to indict, or prosecutors refused to file criminal charges, agents of the Bureau have generally confiscated the entire collection of the potential defendant upon the ground that he intended to use it in that violation of the law. In several cases, the agents have refused to return the collection even after acquittal by jury."

"The defendant, under existing law is not entitled to an award of attorney's fees, therefore, should he secure return of his collection, an individual who has already spent thousands of dollars establishing his innocence of the criminal charges is required to spend thousands more to civilly prove his innocence of the same acts, without hope of securing any redress. This of course, has given the enforcing agency enormous bargaining power in refusing to return confiscated firearms. Evidence received by the Subcommittee related the confiscation of a shotgun valued at $7,000."

Peter AsherWhite Rose#283454/9/2000; 10:30:42

Thank You!

I wonder why we hear so much of the atrocities and yet this story is obscure? I suppose it's because evil and horror is always better "Copy' the Ethics and valor.

Peter AsherTypo -- #283464/9/2000; 10:32:13

"the" should read "than"
SteveHProtecting liberty and an awefully funny diary entry#283474/9/2000; 10:52:24


Date: Sun Apr 09 2000 12:40
mozel (@Gen'ral Disney @In Horse Pucky Territory @War Money) ID#153110:
Copyright © 2000 mozel/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Americans live where legislated crminality was supposed to be against the Law of the Land. Government was here to secure the natural, inherent, unalienable rights of mankind. "Rights are either absolute or relative. Absolute rights are such as do not imply any correlative duties. Relative rights are such as do imply correlative duties.
Absolute rights are of two kinds or classes: First those rights of property which constitute ownership or dominion, as distinguished from rights in the property of another, - jura in re aliena; secondly, personal rights; i.e. those which belong to every person as such.
Relative rights as well as their correlative duties, are called obligations; i.e. we have but one word for both the right and its correlative duty... Absolute rights, therefore, make up the entire sum of human rights." C.C. Langdell Harvard Law Review Vol. I. No. 2. May 16, 1887 pp. 55-56 "... all men are by nature equally free and independent, and have certain inherent rights, of which, when they enter into a state of society, they cannot, by any compact, deprive or divest their posterity; namely, the enjoyment of life and liberty, with the means of acquiring and possessing property, and pursing and obtaining happiness and safety." Virginia Declaration of Rights 1775

Debt and Credit are rights in the property of others - jura in re aliena. Socialism and communism are political movements to give effect to a theory of social or communal rights in the property of others. In the law of relative rights, one person's right is always another person's duty or obligation or responsibility. These are the rights of legislated persons, individuals. Legislated criminality involves ignoring or violating legal obligations, obligations made for your individual or artificial person by the legislators who grant relative legal rights. More fiction is written by legislators than by novelists. It is known as legal fiction. There is no body of a King in America. There is no one, no body, to claim a right in the name of the King. With the compact on social security between the President and the Queen of England, they may claim otherwise. Just about every offense on the books is there to fulfill an obligation made to a foreign Sovereign or Prince in a Treaty. Employment and labor law, firearms registration and confiscation, drug law, and much, much more are all on the books to show "good faith" to the other side of a treaty. Treaties are private international law between Princes. Does the President and the Senate own your private, inherent, natural, unalienable rights to treat with others respecting. The very word "unalienable" means they do not. "It is a rule founded on the plainest dictates of common sense, adopted in all systems of law, that no one can transfer a right to another which he has not himself: nemo plus juris ad alienum transfers potest quam ipse habet. Dig. 50, 17, 54 10 Pet. 161, 175; Co. Litt. 305." Bouvier 1856 But, the rights of individuals are not unalienable. An individual is an artificial person. To the extent which you agree that any other man or greoup of them has a moral or other authority to make law for you to live by, you will identify with your individual. You will make your assigned self, their creature, subject to the jurisdiction of him or them and by identification with that self surrender your personal dominion. It is their law. Whether or not you consent to it, assent to it, or acquiesce in it is your individual decision. Elsewhere in the world, people have no such choice that I know of.

Is it true that governments exist to define money ? It requires but a moment's thought to confirm that the definition of money by government is ipso facto an impairment of liberty of contract. Government's first reason for being is to provide a peaceful just venue for contract enforcement. Money defines itself by usage of men. A government that impairs liberty of contract or impairs the obligations of contract voids its reason for being. It is on this point that rule of man is distinguished from rule of law.

@Gen'ral Disney You are well off out of it. I think the Tocom action is the future of markets. People are accustomed to buying at a certain moment and selling at another. But, there is nothing that says it must be so. Purchase and sale price could as well be calculated as a daily or longer period average of bids and asks. Just an exchange rules change. Affecting the individuals who buy and sell there. I finally got it through my head that none but individuals, trusts, corporations, and the like are even allowed to open accounts. Since the Great One's Bank Holiday.

My maxim: the final crisis of every socialist regime is always financial.

It is a corollary of the inevitable moral deterioration which is consequent to a loss of personal dominion in a society. The American outlet for the propaganda in socialist countries exhorting the workers to meet production quotas is the television evangelist, political or religious in character, promoting individual responsibility.

The final crisis of the global socialist regime which exists by Treaty will be a currency crisis.

My PT Story

For my birthday this year, my wife ( the dear ) purchased a week of private lessons at the local health club for me. Although I am still in great shape since playing on my high school varsity chess club, I decided it would be a good idea to go ahead and give it a try. I called the club and made my reservations with a personal trainer named Tawny, who identified herself as a 26-year old aerobics instructor and model for athletic clothing and swimwear.

My wife seemed pleased with my initial enthusiasm to get started.

The club encouraged me to keep a diary to chart my progress.


Started my day at 600 AM. Tough to get out of bed, but found it was well worth it when I arrived at the health club to find Tawny waiting for me. ( She is something of a goddess with blond hair, dancing eyes, and a dazzling white smile. WOO HOO!!! ) Tawny gave me a tour and showed me the machines she took my pulse after five minutes on the treadmill. She was alarmed that my pulse was so fast, but I attribute it to standing next to her in her aerobic outfit. ( I enjoyed watching the skillful way in which she conducted her aerobics class after my own workout today. Very
inspiring. ) Tawny was encouraging as I did my sit-ups, although my gut was already aching before I began from holding it in the whole time she was around. This is going to be a FANTASTIC week!!!


I drank a whole pot of coffee, but I finally made it out of the door. Tawny made me lie on my back and push a heavy iron bar into the air... then she put weights on it! My legs were a little wobbly on the treadmill, but I made the full mile. Tawny's rewarding smile made it all worth while. I feel GREAT!!!


The only way I can brush my teeth is by laying the toothbrush on the counter and moving my mouth back and forth over it. I believe I have a hernia in both pectorals. Driving was OK as long as I didn't try to steer or stop. I parked on top of a Geo in the club lot. Tawny was impatient with me, insisting that my screams bothered the other club members. ( Her voice is a little too perky for early in the morning, and when she scolds, she gets this nasally whine that is VERY annoying. ) My chest hurt when I got on the treadmill, so Tawny put me on the stair monster. ( Why in HELL would anyone invent a machine to simulate an activity rendered obsolete by elevators? ) Tawny told me it would help me get in shape and enjoy life. She said some other sh!t too, but I was too
busy trying to block the annoying screech of her voice to listen.


Tawny was waiting for me with her vampire-like teeth exposed as her thin, cruel lips were pulled back in a full snarl. ( I couldn't help being a half hour late. It took that long for me to tie my shoes. ) Tawny took me to work out with dumbbells. When she was not looking, I ran and hid in the men's room. She sent Lars to find me, then, as punishment, put me on the rowing machine... which I sank.


I hate that BITCH Tawny more than any human being has ever hated any other human being in the history of the world. ( Stupid, skinny, anemic little cheerleader wannabe BITCH ) . If there was a part of my body I could move without unbearable pain, I would beat her with it. Tawny wanted me to work on my triceps. I don't have any triceps! And if you don't want dents in the floor, don't hand me barbells or anything that weighs more thana tissue. You alone will be responsible for the damage. ( Which I am sure you learned in the sadist school you attended and graduated magna cum laude from, you Nazi Bitch. ) The treadmill flung me off and I landed on a health and P.E. teacher. Why couldn't it have been
someone softer, like the drama coach or the choir director?


Tawny left a message on my answering machine in her grating, shrilly voice wondering why I did not show up today. Just hearing her made me want to smash the machine with my planner. However, I lacked the strength to even use the TV remote and watched eleven straight hours of the son of a bitching weather channel.


I'm having the church van pick me up for services today so I can go and thank God that this week is over. I will also pray that next year my wife ( the BITCH ) will choose a gift for me that is fun... like a root canal or hemmorhoidectomy.

@War Money The American War of Independence was not won with paper money. It was not won with continentals. It was won with loans of specie from the King of France, loans arranged by Ben Franklin and Thomas Jefferson, chiefly.

The government of the United States prevailed over the Confederate government in no small part precisely because it did not rely nearly so much on borrowing for its war effort.

Ideology is the modern fuel for war. Lincoln made the conversion to ideology for war fuel with his Emancipation Proclamation. There was no motive other than ideology for the Children's Crusade. There is no motive other than ideology to make the world safe for democracy or safe for corporate capitalism. What is in it for the man who lends his body ? Nothing but pieces of paper and the applause of his fellows. The social urge is so strong in mankind that few can think clearly on these things. Sacrifice is one of the most powerful ideas to ever find lodgement in the mind of man. It is the most wonderful tool for tyranny over the mind of man ever conceived, I think.

The territory of the mind is the battlefield. Your mind is your own, or it is someone else's. To whom do you extend credit ? And why ? And how much ? On individual answers to those questions depends the future of this world.

SteveHHeadlines from 1929#283484/9/2000; 12:41:28

Check it out!
SteveHButler letter#283494/9/2000; 12:56:30

Ted Butler in another inspired open letter, "let's them have it." Go Ted.
SteveHButler letter#283504/9/2000; 12:57:44

I must point out that Ted's letter was written in 1997. Seems like the problem is still with us.
LelandEditorial From THE ECONOMIST#283514/9/2000; 13:02:16

"For the truth is that nobody knows
if this is the end of the tech bubble. Reason suggests that
tech stocks should go down. But if reason had much to
do with share prices, they would never have risen to their
current heights. Wall Street's finest will do all they can to
get the bandwagon rolling again. American investors still
have the equity faith: tens of billions of dollars of
retirement money are even now heading for the market.
Many investors are preparing to react, as they have so
profitably to previous market downturns, by 'buying the
dips'. Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, may feel less
need to raise interest rates now that share prices show
some sign of heeding earlier warnings. And, lest anyone
forget, it is presidential election year—and Bill Clinton will
be keen to get Vice-president Al Gore into the White

pdeepInflation? What inflation?#283524/9/2000; 13:02:17

'nuff said.
JourneymanWhen piracy's not enough @Henri#283534/9/2000; 14:57:48

"This pirate [U.S. Grabbit] has been stealing from the people.
This pirate will hang at the hand of the people not by the
power of government. That is common justice. Using the term
pirate for such an entity is in fact a disservice to the noble
piracy trade. This rogue and scoundrel (he who steals from
the people on such a grand scale) can only be called by one
name. 'Government.'" -Henri (4/9/2000; 6:17:07MDT - Msg ID:28334)

Most definitely & well spoken, SIR Henri - - - and the sooner it comes to its
well earned bad end the better for us all. I can add only one amplification:
Not satisfied with only taking as much as 45% in so-called income tax plus
F.I.C.A., the U.S. Grabbit, in addition, borrows incredible amounts and thus
indebts our even as yet unborn children and grandchildren, who, according to
Clintoon's 1994 budget, will eventually have to pay between 84% and 92% of their
income in taxes.

The official government debt (usually called ingenuously "National
Debt") has now increased to $5.6 trillion over the last couple of years,
despite the claim is made that it is being paid off, and despite the fact
the Grabbit spends the excess Social Security take as if it was part of
it's income. They call this unique accounting proceedure the "Unified Budget."
Thus the approximately $110 billion Social security "surpluss" is accounted
as DECREASING the deficit by $110 billion.

Check the link just below for an on-line U.S. Grabbit debt clock:

This only represents about 1/5th of the debt story though; it doesn't include
"off budget" expenses such as the approximately $11 trillion estimated costs
for the untouchable "Social Security" and Medicare welfare benefits expected
by duped citizens. There is at least an additional $4 trillion or so in other
"off budget" expenses such as government pensions, Superfund clean-ups, and
clean-up costs for government nuclear sites such as the Hanford site in

For a surprising expos'e of the "Social Security" situation, click on the
link in the header of this post.


IronHeadHenri#283544/9/2000; 15:05:58

Sir Henri- From my wife's native Japan, comes the tradition of bowing in honor and respect, which I extend to you with the deepest of bows. Your treatise's of today on work, energy, truth, time, and love are expressions in words that I have only understood by feeling thusfar. These thoughts shall go into my hall of fame. Hopefully many others reading these scripts will absorb your words of truth.

With your thoughts in mind I'm heading outside for a first spring tilling, on a golden day in the mountains.


Peter AsherGo see#283554/9/2000; 15:34:06

Tangential excerpt:
"At the risk of accusations of paranoia, one might conclude that a real conspiracy of managed information dominates America's well-springs of public knowledge."

And at the bottom, was this link.

HI - HATGrinding Process#283564/9/2000; 16:01:09

What will be good for gold and its shares is a slowly grinding down stock market. After all romanticism is stipped from market lore, what we are left with is only a glorified lemonade stand. ESOP stock is now coming on stream in large quatity. The Publics appetite for stock may have reached a point of satiation [exhaustion]. Oversupply of anything=price discounting. Resumption of a further leg down will severely test the logic of adhering to the "greater fool theory", with respect to such high P/E stocks.

The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. Higher interest rates must creep up incrementaly to maintain dollar. If dollar begins down phase, which all evidence and certain pundits point too (Jimmy Rogers), thats just more pressure against no yield story stocks. The day in and day out grind down demoralizes(dont gold bugs know that one), and the uncertainties open up a search for investment alternatives.

A tricle at first will begin to go into hard assets and then as the storms of paper wealth destruction and inflation gathers force the tricle to hard asset demand will turn into a deluge of demand.

SteveHsnippet#283574/9/2000; 17:16:43


"...The bill, said Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., will ``protect the legitimate constitutional rights of American citizens while at the same time protecting this tremendous asset to law enforcement.''

The legislation would shift the burden of proof in asset forfeiture cases from the property owner, where it now lies, to the government."

R PowellThanks for reference and HOF opus#283584/9/2000; 18:11:47

**Mr. Black Blade, thanks for the supply deficit report which I printed out (15 pages). I like the fundamental information. Sir Aristotle- just reread your Hall of Fame explanation of oil, currency and gold. If your not teaching outside of this forum, then the world is short one great professor. Thanks
HI - HATTwo possibilaties before grind down day#283594/9/2000; 18:38:56

According to Jeff Cooper at

"Of course,this time could be different. The consensus for the Nasdaq script now is that the market needs time to back and fill, to stabilize, and to catch its sea legs-and that it is likely we will see a test of the lows in two or three weeks. I suggest that we are either going nowhere near those lows-and that its up,up and away quickly-or that Tuesdays lows will be taken out with vigor. Something about the test scenario just rings too pat. Its the consensus and majority opinion. Furthermore, this is a mature bull market. If its going to blow-off this is exactly how it would occur, with stopped-out bulls scrambling to get back on board as bears continue to throw "logs", on the fire at retracement levels".

This blow-off, if it happens would seem very poetic to me. In keeping with precedent breaking nature of this bull-run, we could have "the Mother of all blow-off tops, in "the Mother of all bull traps". Then at the exhaustion peak, we can witness the Comex and PPT having their rigging ediface burned up in the downward running molten lava.

Cavan ManJust checked in to lurk.....#283604/9/2000; 20:01:30 GE. There is a lot of bearish sentiment over there. I'm glad to see so little talk here of gold stocks, paper gold and the POG. It's a little longer term battle on this front; a monetary argument takes a little more time to evolve and gain acceptance.

Buy gold now--all you can understand. Thanks for the company......CM

schippiGold Stock Premium in Percent#283614/9/2000; 21:01:12

The below chart compares Select-Gold, XAU and Comex-Gold.
The curves are plotted on a percentage basis, so the premium
that the Gold stocks enjoy over bullion may be compared over time.
The chart shows when this percentage premium shrinks to the bullion
level, a strong Gold stock rally follows. When it goes below the bullion
level, it's time to mortage the house and go long.

SHIFTYPOG#283624/9/2000; 22:32:48

I don't remember seeing it this flat. What's up ? KITCO chart flater than a pancake!
SHIFTYPOG#283634/9/2000; 22:58:59

I guess I should have said nothing, it just went down.
Mr GreshamMr Moto on GSEs#283644/9/2000; 23:16:21

Bearforum's star analyst at his best... (close resemblance to TownCrier's monetary vigilance here...)

Also, do not miss's Wednesday and Friday nights' commentaries on the Credit Bubble.

LelandThis is a Story About my Grandfather -- He Flipped a Silver Dollar, That's Why I'm From Wyoming#283654/10/2000; 0:54:18

Received your letter of March 11th and was both pleased and surprised and
should have been more prompt in answering but several things have come up
that delayed my writing. I have been busy looking after my little ranch and we
have a little bunch of purebred cattle and they had to be cared for and as the
ranch is 20 miles from where we live here in town it was quite a chore to go
out there and feed and look after them and my wife was in the hospital over
at Sheridan forty miles north of here for major surgery and I was over there
to be with her part of the time so didn't have much time to write.

It will take several letters to tell you all of our trip out here and what we went
thru and the coming of our present modern living, and I am glad to write them
for you but it will take some time. They will be all written from memory as I
never kept a dairy or note book of any kind.

Father had been in the horse business and farming until the panic of 1894 and
sold out before he lost everything he had. I don't know how many mares he
had but he had one English shire stallion he's imported from England that cost
him $1000.00 which was lots of money at that time. He got out with $400.00
and bot a black smith shop in a little town close to St. Joseph Missouri and
that a bad deal as the people didn't have any money to pay for the work they
had done so he had to give up and took another loss, so he decided to make a

He had some friends in Texas and also had a brother that had come to
Wyoming in 1893 (the year I was born) so he decided to move either to go to
Texas or Wyoming as they both claimed they we would be able to get work
and altho the wages were small one could still make a living, so he disposed of
everything he had except a few of the most essential belongings as a few
household goods consisting mostly of bedding and a few cooking utensils and
a small cook stove. He had kept four of his best mares when he sold out his
horse outfit so he bot 2 new wagons and 2 new sets of harness, covered the
wagons with bows and covered them with canvas loaded everything in the
covered wagons and was read to take off. Mother was going to drive one
team and father the other but just at the last moment a brother of my father's
decided to come with us. His wife had just died and he left his 3 children with
some of the relatives so he came along to drive one team.

The morning we were to start which was may the 6th 1896 and with quite a
crowd of friends and relatives gathered around some one asked father if he's
decided where to go yet and he told them he would decide in just a minute so
he took a silver dollar from his pocket and said he would throw it up in the air
and if it came up heads he would go to Wyoming but if it came up tails he
was going to Texas. It came up heads and that is the reason I am writing you
this letter from Buffalo Wyoming.

We headed for Omaha Nebraska and at Council bluffs just across the
Missouri River we had our first accident that delayed us. In the night one of
our horses kicked the other in the shoulder and crippled her and we were
unable to travel until the horse was able to move around or until father could
get another horse. There were lots of horse traders and horses such as they
were but they didn't have a horse that would anywhere match the horses
father had so he decided to wait a few days and see how things turned out.
One day he heard of a fellow that had a horse that he thot might suit him and
it was across the Missouri just west of Omaha so he drove over to see about
it. Our horses had never seen a street car. I believe when I was in England
that you people there called them trams or tramways, am I right?

Well the team got scared and one horse tried to climb over the railing of the
bridge and it looked like for a minute she might succeed but there were
several men on the bridge and they all came to our rescue. Father just the day
before had pealed a straight green hickory pole to use to hold our canvas
cover up on the wagon and one fellow grabbed that and hit the mare over the
head and knocked her down just as she was getting her feet over the railing.
When she got up there were several men had a hold of the bridle and anything
they could get a hold of and controlled her best they could but the big boy
with the hickory cub had to knock her down several times before we got
across the bridge. From the top of the floor of the bridge was just about forty
feet so you can imagine what a frightening experience that was. When we got
out to where the horse was it was sure a disappointment as the horse he
showed father he would have been ashamed for anybody to have seen him
leading it down the road, let alone driving it, so he decided to wait as we had a
nice place to camp close to the river among the shade trees and lost of grass
for the horses.

We stayed there maybe 10 days or two weeks and the condition of the mare
improved and so we started on but traveling was slow. We wend from Omaha
to Gordon Nebraska where father had a cousin living and just a few years
before and not far from there he had a distant cousin killed and scalped by the
Indians. We stayed there a few days I don' know how long and let the horses
rest and also mother washed up all our clothes and baked bread. That sounds
kindy funny now as one can go into a bakery and buy bread at any store or
service station but this was 62 years ago and bakery bread was almost
unheard of except ti the very largest towns. After leaving there we headed on
west and the father we came the fewer the farms.

Some days we didn't see a house. They were certainly few and far between
but the plains were covered with cattle and antelope by the thousands. We
would see a few cowboys and they were glad to see some one to speak to.
They were what was called line riders and were keeping the cattle from
drifting. Most of these cattle had been trailed up from Texas and were trying
to head back to what had been their home. These cowboys were real friendly
and accommodating. We met two of them one afternoon and father asked
them how far it was to the next store and they said 80 miles. That isn't far
now but it sure was then driving a team of big horses. They asked him what
he needed and he said he would like to buy some bacon and some grain for
his horses also. They told him where there was a nice creek on ahead where
he could camp and they would bring him some bacon that night and that he
would pass a ranch next day where he could get grain.

That night just at dusk they rode up to our camp and one fellow says "Well
old man here is your bacon" and he had a hind quarter of beef. They had
butchered a 5 or six year old steer and that quarter of beef must have weighed
150 or 175 pounds. When father offered to pay him for it they just laughed
and said they would board it out with us and they sat down and ate supper
with us and visited for a while and went back to their line camp. They seemed
to be happy for what they done and you know how pleased we were.

This was the rainy season and some days we were not able to travel at all and
other times we would have to wait for the water to go down at some of the
river crossings as at that time there were no bridges and the creeks and rivers
had to be forded. One afternoon we could see some awful black storm clouds
coming up in the west and we knew we were going to be in for an awful
drenching and a miserable night but in the distance we could see a large grove
of trees and father thot if we could make it to them we could get a little shelter
from the storm.

We made it there just as it was getting dark and the storm hit at the same
time. It was a ranch home and when we drove up a man came out to the gate
to meet us. I don't know how big he would look to me now but I thot he was
the biggest man I ever saw. He had a big heavy black beard and maybe that
had lots to do with his looks.

Father asked him if we could camp in his grove and he said "no you can't
camp in my grove!" and then in a softer tone he said "but you can sure as hell
sleep in my house!" I was sitting between father and mother and he reached
up and took me and handed me to his wife and she ran back to the house with
me and mother came on in with my brother and my two sisters. He helped
father and my uncle take care of the horses. He had a large barn and they fed
the horses hay and grain and then they came on in the house and got supper.
That was the happiest woman one ever saw to think there was a woman she
could visit with and she sure made a fuss over us kids. It had been just a year
since she had seen another woman to visit with. One can hardly imagine that
but that was the case of several early day settlers. We stayed there several
days, I don't know just how long.

This was a big horse ranch and he wanted father to throw in with him and go
to raising big horses. He had some awful good horses but nothing to equal the
ones father had, but father had set his mind to go to Wyoming and that was
that. He ofttimes said afterwards that that was one of his worst mistakes that
he didn't accept that fellows offer and stay there. That was in the sand hills of
Nebraska. The roads so far had been nothing but dirt roads at the best and
other times no road at all just trails made by the trail herds of cattle being
trailed thru from Texas. There's another thing I want to mention now and that
is about the fuel. There wasn't a tree sometimes for a hundred miles and of
course coal was unheard of so what we used for fuel was cow chips (cow
manure) Some of the permanent settlers in that plains country would get a
trail herd of two or three thousand head of cattle to camp on their place over
night and that would give them enough fuel to last all winter.

From this ranch we started on west and came to the Pine Ridge Indian
reservation. Of course the Indians had been subdued several years prior to
this and confined to the reservations but the new harness with nickel
trimmings looked like too much of a temptation to the Indians so the soldiers
that were stationed there escorted us across the reservation and past until they
were sure we would not be molested and then they turned back and we kept
plodding on toward Wyoming. I'm not sure but I think the soldiers were with
us three days and nights and on the morning of the fourth day they headed

We came into Wyoming just about 20 miles east of Lusk and from there on
there was a pretty good road that was well traveled by stage coaches and
freight outfits and when we got to Douglas we took what was called the
Bozeman Trail through Fort Fetterman and then north to what was called the
17 mile stage station just a few miles south of old Ft. Connor (Fort Connor).
There we left the Bozeman. We had been traveling it for a little less than a
hundred miles. We took a dim road from there that lead to Sussex on Powder
River and that was the end of our long journey. We arrived there June 27th
just 52 days from the day we started from St. Joseph Mo.

We were only there a short time until we moved on up the north Fork of
Powder River into a house that had been vacated by the EK Cattle Company.
It was a large house built of logs and had a big fireplace but like most of the
houses in that part of the country those days it had nothing but a dirt or
earthen floor, but it was a nice warm comfortable house. We lived there the
following winter and father worked for a rancher. The wages were $30 per
month and that sounded good as they were only $12.50 per month where we
came from and you had to board yourself. Father got the $30 and his board
included there. We made several moves from there until father filed on a
homestead about 16 miles south west of there on the middle fork of Powder
River and along the road that lead from the Little Missouri River and the
Belfouche Country to the Hole in the Wall which was becoming and finally
got to be one of the greatest outlaw holdouts in the west.

Father built our house a short distance from the road and in the next few
years following I saw and learned to recognize lots of the characters that in
western history have gone down as notorious outlaws. I'll tell you more about
this country and some of the men both outlaws and peace officers in my next
letter. I was glad to get your letter and will do my best to tell you all you want
to know or at least all I'm able to tell in what changes have taken place here in
the last 62 years.

Yours Sincerely
Bill Potts
110 North Tisdale St
Buffalo Wyoming

[My uncle Bill wrote this in 1958, I just found it on the Web]

Peter AsherAnother "Witchhunter" seeking his 15 minutes#283664/10/2000; 1:04:19

Home educators
arrested for truancy
Parents taken into custody,
file lawsuit against officials

Peter AsherLeland#283674/10/2000; 1:21:21

Great story, especially liked the bit about the fuel.

Is there a solution to the oil supply here? (There certainly is alot more bovine excrement these days)

LelandPeter, I Don't Know#283684/10/2000; 1:34:50

Been thinking about having one of those big, black, handlebar moustaches like grandpaw had. Real tempting.
Mr GreshamLeland #28365#283694/10/2000; 1:49:27

Thanks, Leland! You made it worth popping in for "one more look-see" before bed. I'll be dreaming those lonely trails in about 10 minutes.
Black BladePeter Asher and Leland#283704/10/2000; 2:38:54

Just a short aside and a bit off topic: There are actual studies underway to develop animal feed that will reduce Bovine Flatulence in order to reduce greenhouse gases (I'm not making this stuff up!). What a crazy world we live in. But sometimes a very funny and entertaining world it is.
Black BladeOK, just one more, it's late and bit quiet in here.#283714/10/2000; 2:48:49

A colleague related a story about a research project that an acquaintance was involved with concerning Bovine Flatulence and greenhouse gas studies. Everything was going along quite well for about a year and a half. One day while the cattle were watering around a metal trough fed by a metal windmill, a sudden thunderstorm rolled in. An errant lightening strike hit the windmill and so electrocuted a good number of the cattle. The final thesis remarks were something to the effect "….and then the study was terminated due to an unforeseen event, etc." I guess that the ensuing barbecue was quite delicious. I guess that he also found the ultimate solution to Bovine Flatulence as well :-)
CanuckQuestion#283724/10/2000; 4:47:26

What is a bear trap? Bull trap?

What is a 'dead cat bounce'?



Black BladeMore sleepers awaken!#283734/10/2000; 5:13:40

Source: Bridge news

Japan investors' demand for gold up on low prices, interest rates

Tokyo--Apr 10--Japanese private investors have boosted investment in gold since early April due to relatively weak local gold prices, dealers of retailers said Monday. Current low interest rates in Japan have also attracted investors to switch their funds from fixed postal savings deposits to gold, they added.(Story .10678)

Black Blade: This could be a good sign. Since the TOCOM defaulted on Pd, some in Japan may see that buying physical PMs are worthwhile. They don't trust their government either. The Postal savings deposits are a cruel joke forced onto the Japanese. It's essentially bankrupt and pays a measly 0.5% interest. Hmmm…..

Black BladeMore news on reserves in Asia#283744/10/2000; 5:21:48

Source: Bridge news

Taiwan March gold imports 9.572 tonnes vs 8.014 tonnes year ago

Taipei--April 10--Taiwan's gold imports totaled 9.572 tonnes in March, compared with 8.014 tonnes in Mar 1999, a statement released by the ministry of finance Saturday indicated. (Story .6016)

Black Blade: Another reason for the Mainland to invade?

Malaysia's Mar 31 FX reserves at $33.92 bln vs $34.43 bln Mar 15

Kuala Lumpur--Apr 10--Malaysia's foreign exchange and gold reserves declined to 128.89 billion ringgit as at Mar 31, from 130.82 billion ringgit as at Mar 15 according to figures released by the central bank, Bank Negara over the weekend. The US dollar equivalent of the reserves fell to 33.92 billion from $34.43 billion at mid-March. The central bank did not provide a reason for the decline. (Story .8191)

Black Blade: The reason is called theft! Hmmmm.......

RBI says India FX assets $35.058 bln on Mar 31, +$633 mln on wk

Mumbai--Apr 8--India's foreign currency assets totaled US $35.058 billion on Mar 31, up $633 million from a week earlier, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s Weekly Statistical Supplement released Saturday. Total foreign exchange reserves, including gold and special drawing rights, rose by $503 million to $38.036 billion on Mar 31. (Story .1527)

Black Blade: Way to go. Exchange for more PMs while your at it.

SteveHESF part of emergency power of Pres, which...#283754/10/2000; 5:58:38

should have been cancelled two-years after enactment.


All the powers conferred by this section shall expire two years after the date of enactment of this Act, unless the President shall sooner declare the existing emergency ended and the operation of the stabilization fund terminated; but the President may extend such period for not more than one additional year after such date by proclamation recognizing the continuance of such emergency.

Sec. 13. All actions, regulations, rules, orders, and proclamations heretofore taken, promulgated, made or issued by the President of the United States or the Secretary of- the Treasury, under the Act of March 9, 1933, or under section 43 or section 45 of title III of the Act of May 12, 1933, are hereby approved, ratified, and confirmed.

In order to authorize the establishment of the Exchange stabilization fund, the congress had to approve, ratify, and confirm the war and emergency acts of March 9, and May 12, otherwise this legislation would have been blatantly unconstitutional on a peace time basis.
Sec. 10 (c) confirms congress' knowledge of this fact when the powers conferred under this act are to expire after two years or sooner if the president terminates the emergency sooner.
One important thing to note is that the power to intervene in foreign currencies or to "bail out" foreign countries was only constitutionally possible during a declared state of war or national emergency when it was deemed absolutely essential for the survival of the nation. Constitutionally, when the emergency ends the emergency powers must also cease.
Yet another and perhaps more important note is the adverse or beneficial effect the currency exchange rate can have on the average person in the United States and upon the US economy as a whole.

SM. SpornyJapan investors' demand for gold up on low prices, interest rates#283764/10/2000; 6:23:38

Japan investors' demand for gold up on low prices, interest rates
Tokyo--Apr 10--Japanese private investors have boosted investment in gold
since early April due to relatively weak local gold prices, dealers of retailers
said Monday. Current low interest rates in Japan have also attracted investors
to switch their funds from fixed postal savings deposits to gold, they added.
(Story .10678)

LeighSharefin - Silver Pledge#283774/10/2000; 7:14:52

How's the Silver Pledge coming along? Has anyone noticed the price of silver is up almost five cents today?
TheStrangerCanuck#283784/10/2000; 7:34:08

Bull Trap: A short, sharp bear market rally which sucks in buyers before going to new lows. Conversely, a bear trap is a bull market correction that sucks in sellers before going to new highs.

Even a dead cat will bounce when dropped off a tall building, but the bounce will be very minor.

SHIFTYGreenspan #283794/10/2000; 7:47:50

Greenspan was to talk at 9:00 AM now moved till 12:00 noon.Easier to bomb gold with London out of the picture?
MO VER MEGLeland - Good Story#283804/10/2000; 8:05:16

I enjoyed your posting this morning. My ancestors settled in South Dakota.

So today, we are in Vermillion, SD (praying for rain) and passing on our family history and traditions to our children.

I have a brother in Casper (they will make a cowboy out of him yet).

I look forward to your next posting.


USAGOLDToday's Report: Gold Up on Japanese Physical Buying and NY Short Covering#283814/10/2000; 8:36:58

4/10/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/10/00): Gold was up in New York trading following a slow
night overseas. Physical demand was up in Hong Kong signalling that Asian
buyers might think that we've reached bottom for the gold price. Bridge News
reports a surge of demand among private investors in Japan hedging the weak
yen. Gold dealers there are also reporting switches from the vast, but
low-paying, postal savings system to gold. Japan announced overnight a
continuation of its zero interest rate policy. On Friday, the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission reports that large speculators' short positions
more than doubled from 24,305 contracts to 42,440 over the last two weeks.
The short position builds a positive aspect into the market because at some
points those positions will need to be squared. Squaring those positions
might be what's driving this market in the early going.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.

RSSteve H........ listing of important "personally strategic" metals:#283824/10/2000; 9:06:22

Gold, silver, brass, lead, ordnance steel.
HenriSirs IronHead and Journeyman Msgs 28354/28353#283834/10/2000; 9:12:54

You honor me greatly. My humble thanks. Sir IronHead, I believe it is customary to return such a bow. It is done!

Sir IronHead, dost thou remove thine helm whilst tilling?

HenriPeter Asher#283844/10/2000; 9:15:54

Unbelievable photos! This is truly exciting... Why haven't we heard of this?!? This is incomprehensible.
HenriRS Msg 28382#283854/10/2000; 9:22:25

List of strategic tools to add to the list.
Precision metal lathe and boring bits. Precision metal machining tools. DuPont's technology and Krupp's steel process; the guardians of freedom

Peter AsherHenri#283864/10/2000; 9:28:58

You don't suppose their could be any GOLD down there, do you??
jinx44Interesting insight on carry-trades and manipulated markets#283874/10/2000; 9:50:34

I saw this article on Fiendbears site this AM. It has some interesting insights into the yen/dollar situation and the FED/BoJ market operations. The gist to me is that this is a market that defies logic and should be avoided. The following is a quote pulled from the article.

"You see: the whole thing is a bad joke. If US stock market falls, the Fed will let M3 Growth Rate rise and hence, US stock bubble skyrockets. If rising yen is threatening US stock market, BoJ will step in and sell yen for USD to suppress yen and hence, US stock bubble skyrockets. If T-Bond is sinking (and falling bond is hurting US stock market), US Treasury Department will use budget surplus to buyback T-Bond, and hence US stock bubble skyrockets. If T-Bond doesn't rise fast enough, BoJ will use the acquired USD from its interventions to buy US T-Bonds and hence, US stock bubble skyrockets. What are we doing here? Are we supposed to write Sky Blue Monthly to forecast stock, bond and currency markets? All the above factors cannot be predicted by using any qualitative or quantitative methods. Can you read the mind of Alan Greenspan (The Fed Chairman) to know M3 Growth Rate in the next few months? Can you read the minds of those central bankers at BoJ to know when they are going to intervene again? Can you read the mind of Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to know when he is going to use budget surplus to buyback T-Bonds again? If you can't, you should not trade stocks, bonds, or currencies because the risk is so high. Since we can't, we should not forecast stocks, bonds, or currencies in Sky Blue Monthly! In short, Sky Blue Monthly is dead. We still have to think how to get around with this in order to save our Monthly."

SharefinDon't forget * * * THE SILVER PLEDGE * * *#283884/10/2000; 9:55:51

Send it to your friends, far and wide.

So far there's been 95 pledgers (godlike souls) who've taken up 40,000 odd ounces of silver.
This is from just a sprinkle of goldbugs on the three main forums, and all in just one weekend.

If this gets going it could provide a real springboard for the price of silver.
And a squeeze for the manipulators.

So do your bit to help spread the message.

lamprey_65Japanese Savings#283894/10/2000; 10:59:17

Very interesting! This is the most rational behavior I've seen by investors in some time. Your savings plan only offers a measley .5% rate, and you have to worry about the quality of the government paper on top of that! If you are a conservative saver, you're much better off storing your accumulated wealth with gold. If this becomes a mania in Japan (who have proven themselves to be just as mania susceptible as we Americans), things could get very interesting indeed. Who would have thought that it would be the Japanese who began the gold ownership craze in the western economies?


HLSJapanese Postal Savings nibbling at Gold is very bullish!!#283904/10/2000; 11:05:00

Japan investors' demand for gold up on low prices, interest rates
Tokyo--Apr 10--Japanese private investors have boosted investment in gold
since early April due to relatively weak local gold prices, dealers of retailers
said Monday. Current low interest rates in Japan have also attracted investors
to switch their funds from fixed postal savings deposits to gold, they added.
(Story .10678)
If I recall correctly this postal fund is the largest pool of pension money in the world, NINE TRILLION DOLLARS worth!!
After the recent run-up in Palladium ..the Japanese investors may be primed for a Gold move.
In 1998, the fastest growing consumer item in Japan was home safes. There was (and still is) so much mistrust towards their banks that the Japanese people preferred cash in their home safes or to pay the government to hold their money (Nov,1998 Japanese T-bill rates were a negative).
The Japanese government debt levels are extremely high and domestic confidence is so low ..that buying gold makes all the sense in the world, and could easily turn into a powerful trend.
There was some question at the end of March, 2000 that part of this pension money might move overseas to seek a higher yield ..if instead, it starts moving into Gold ..the shorts will run like hell to cover and the price spike one more time. HLS

Hill Billy MitchellThe long and the short of it#283914/10/2000; 11:46:39


30-year Treasury rate = 5.69%

Fed Funds rate = 6.03%

upside down spread = (.34%)

HenriPeter Asher...apparenty so!#283924/10/2000; 11:56:21

"A Kuroko-Type Polymetallic Sulfide Deposit in a Submarine Silicic Caldera"
K. Iizasa, R. S. Fiske, O. Ishizuka, M. Yuasa, J. Hashimoto, J. Ishibashi, J. Naka, Y. Horii, Y. Fujiwara, A. Imai, and S. Koyama
Science 1999 February 12; 283: 975-977. (in Reports)

Yes, a significant gold showing...but much too deep for conventional recovery techniques

FasoltHelp Put Gold Back on the Radar Screens#283934/10/2000; 12:11:11

Putting Gold Back on the Radar Screens - Is it really possible?

Although I have "borrowed" the title of this missive from one of my favorite posters, TC's #27981 ("Gold is off the radar screens at this time for millions of Western investors," Mon, Apr3), the real impetus for this posting belongs to Leigh and her posting # 27959 (also Mon, Apr3) in which she planted a pair of images in my weary brain that simply wouldn't go away.

The first: "King Solomon being told that 'a piece of paper represented the gold portion of his portfolio’." The second: " A woman, with children, fleeing a war scene & trying (unsuccessfully) to bribe a guard with a piece of [gold] paper." Bravo to Leigh. But it was because her examples were visual images that really had an impact on me (that, and the fact that I am impatient for the POG to arouse from its slumbers). The next day (Tues, Apr 4) there was a re-post from Kitco (#284255, I believe), titled "a modest proposal." The essence of this post was that "the key to the gold market—its Achilles heel—is its link to silver." Sharefin's recommendation to the Kitco readers (and anybody else) was that they collectively 'remove’ 100 million oz. of silver bullion from the current marketplace. [One million buyers of 100 oz. each = 100 m oz.] Is Sharefin correct, and, even more important, is this likely to succeed? Over the last few days a number of like-minded silver/gold enthusiasts have reported that they have purchased between 100 and 1000oz of silver. I hope they make a noticeable dent in the silver market, but one million buyers is a pretty large number. At any rate, Sharefin's "Silver Pledge" should give us some indication of the depth and breadth of the internet's potential, at the present time, to influence the silver market in a grass-roots manner.
Good luck, Sharefin, for all our sakes.

Which brings me to my hair-brained scheme #10,839.

In an earlier post (#27545, Mon, Mar 27), I wrote that, essentially, the POG was more a reflection of gold as a currency than as a commodity, and that the POG was thus rather easily "manipulated" by the CBs. The POG, as a commodity, wore the lesser of its two "hats."

Well, it doesn't have to stay that way forever. A "paradigm shift" in how Americans view gold could place it "back on their radar screens" and thus change decisively the "balance of power" in the physical gold market. Other posters on this forum, far more knowledgeable than I, have explained (and predicted) this turn of the economic screw. For me, the issue resolves itself into whether one is willing to wait for the failure of the current bull market/economic system/administration/whatever, or to make a successful effort to "put gold and silver back on the radar screens." Many thousands, maybe millions, of American investors (or non-investors) have been waiting for a repeat of 1929. Waiting in vain for a collapse that (so far) hasn't materialized. Waiting for 71 years - and counting. If you want to sit down at the gold poker table with the Fed, the US Treasury, and the major banks and brokerage houses (ALL of whom trade sans commissions, and ALL of whom have access to buy/sell orders and other information that you and I can't even dream about), be prepared to lose some of your stake.

So, do we wait for those clever fellows in charge of the US economy to screw up, do we abandon the gold market (for the time being, at least), or do we try and find a way to change the way things are - and have been for the last 20 years or so? Actually, it means changing the "investment objectives" of a sizeable proportion of the 280 million Americans who are in a position to decide what to do with their families’ money. Not an easy objective to achieve, to put it mildly.

How about the World Gold Council? They've been around for a long time, they have the financial support of the world's gold mining companies, they say they're in favor of higher gold prices, and they're a world-wide organization. Ah, therein may lie the rub. Because they are a world-wide bureaucracy, to expect them to try and promote gold usage/investment in one part of the world (like the USA), which might very well impinge on another part of the world (e.g. Asia), would probably contradict their charter/mandate. They seem to be content to collect date and publish articles based on this data as they have been doing these many years. If we're looking for leadership, better to look somewhere else.

How about the gold mining companies? They have hundreds of millions, no, make it billions, of dollars in potential profits riding on the POG. Unfortunately (for their shareholders), they are a house divided: the vultures among them are in favor of a low POG (so that they can acquire their less fortunate rivals), while the potential victims are engaging in hedging as if their lives depended on it - which it does. No, the gold mining companies of the world have done NOTHING to promote their product over the last few years. In early1998 there was a "trial balloon" of a commemorative gold coin launched by Peter Munk, and it produced a brief rally in the POG, but it died a quiet death shortly thereafter. None of the world's major gold mining companies has come forth with an innovative proposal to increase the sales of gold, least of all the North American producers; nobody is willing to rock the boat.

How about the goldbugs and our access to the Internet? The true believers. The bugs believing in Armageddon (for them) and nice profits (for us), all the while looking over our shoulders to see who is wielding the spray can of RAID. I may very well be wrong, but at the present time, I don't think there are enough of us. Yet. But the potential. . . and the internet. . . . If only someone. . . .

OK. What about our host, Michael Kosares? I know NOTHING about the nuts and bolts of the gold/silver coin/bullion business. I'm a retired teacher, and I'm confident that if I liquidated everything I own and bought a coin store here in Toronto, I'd be bankrupt within a few weeks, or less. Still, a few questions (especially for MK):

1. Is there an "umbrella" organization of USA coin dealers?
2. If such an organization exists, what degree of success might this organization expect, relative to their costs, of a national media campaign to promote ownership of gold/silver? Have you and your friends/competitors ever considered such a campaign?
3. Given the fact that it was illegal for Americans to own gold from 1934 to 1974 (40 years), and that during this time belief in the "quick profit" replaced belief in the "preservation of wealth," is there ANY way for the "collective" coin/bullion dealers to credibly communicate an alternative viewpoint re. gold ownership to the American public?

IMHO, retailers advertise, and the public buys according to the best ads. That's the way things work in America.

MK is a gold retailer and has the best gold forum on the Internet. He is also a very reputable retailer of gold coins and jewelry.

I know that this post of mine properly belongs under the heading of: "It's easy to spend other peoples’ money," (in this case, the coin dealers of the USA). But I believe there are some attractive reasons to buy and own gold, and of which the average American is not aware.

How does MK, or anybody else, persuade the typical American investor to put Gold/Silver on his radar screen? I don't know, but some creative answers could sure make a hell of a change in the way the gold business operates. Any ideas out there from you fellow USAGOLD posters?


Penny NicholsORO Inflation#283944/10/2000; 12:29:09

Can you please clear up for me the following question about inflation (which we do not have)? I understand that inflation can be defined as an expansion of the money supply rather than the Govmint CPI (cooked books) definition cited by the talking heads. If so, and with the inexhaustible supply of reserves being sent out into battle by the Fed, why does the $US continue to advance against the hard currencies like the Euro and SwFr. Theoretically, the increased supply should inflate and thereby reduce such a currency.

An addition question is: Are the reserves being sent out by the Fed "New Money" and which are being added to our National Debt and therefore eligible to be paid off with our budget surplus?

Penny Nichols

IronHeadHenri: Tilling In The Wind#283954/10/2000; 12:34:02

Funny you should ask. If one were to watch my tilling of the *garden* yesterday, I would appear as if a drunken sailor in a dream, without a helm. The garden is on a slight sidehill, and to keep the tiller from toppling, I ran divergent angles to the slope of the hill. Zigging and zagging merrily!

Reminds me that a good sailor, should be wary when sailing shallow waters, lest he get his rudder stuck in the sand.


Hill Billy MitchellOfficial Interest rate release#283964/10/2000; 13:20:11

Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: Monday, April 10, 2000

Rates for Friday, April 7, 2000

Federal funds 5.71

Treasury constant maturities:

3-month 5.90
10-year 5.86
20-year 6.04
30-year 5.71

Hill Billy MitchellIronHead (4/10/2000; 12:34:02MDT - Msg ID:28395)#283974/10/2000; 14:02:03

Sir IronHead, etal

Just read your # 28395 (Tilling in the Wind)

Reminded me of the Fed's "coming out of the closet" phrase, "leaning against the wind".

I have been doing some in depth studies of the history of interest rate "manipulation" by the Fed. I am getting close to having some useful date to pour over and conclude from. The Fed has been "leaning against the wind" lately although you never see mention of it in the controlled press, nor does Greenspan mention it. Far be it from him to let the common man know what TPTB are really up to. We have been in an interest rate inversion situation for about three weeks now. The Fed by "leaning against the wind" admittedly is trying to push interest rates in a direction opposite the direction of the market forces.

From my perch it appears that Greenspan and company is acting the part of a "drunken sailor without a helm. To keep the tiller from topping" he seems to be "running at divergent angles to the slopes of the hill, zigging and zagging merrily along the way." You stated the case magnificently - " a good sailor, should be wary when sailing shallow waters, lest he get his rudder stuck in the sand."

For those who are interested in this interest rate inversion "thing" which I like to call a temperature inversion, I am about two weeks from being able to post some very revealing information. Let me just say for now that I feel sure that I have found a way to follow this Fed "thing" and can keep us common people posted as to what the Fed is really up to. I learned long ago to be especially on guard and to watch what Greenspan does and not listen to what he says. No one could possibly intend for the truth to be known when he uses "ambiguous verbosity" or should I say, "Inverted Government double-speak". As Henry Fond said, I think it was in "Spencer's Mountain", 'Damn, Damn and Double Damn' this nefarious, heinous, method of deception and outright underhandedness. Archibald was right; "A world of ignorant people is dangerous to live in.


Hill Billy MitchellLeaning against the wind#283984/10/2000; 14:05:11

Correction of below post

Should be "useful data" not "useful date"


Hill Billy MitchellThe long and the short of it#283994/10/2000; 14:18:50

The long and the short of it


30-year Treasury rate = 5.67%

Fed Funds rate = 6.06%

upside down spread = (.39%)

TownCrierRecent Nasdaq weakness...Tech stock investors haven't seen ANYTHING yet.#284004/10/2000; 14:45:13

Top Three Nasdaq declines in percentage
Date . . . .Percent Change
10/19/87 . . . -11.35
10/20/87 . . . .-9.00
10/26/87 . . . .-9.00

Last Monday's 349.15 point fall was the largest ever at the close, but ranked only 5th in terms of percentage of "wealth" lost (-7.64%). Today's second place pointfall of -258.24 placed only eighth percentage-wise (-5.81%).

All ten of the top point declines have come in the past 3+ months of the year 2000. At what point will this concentrated span of volatility shake loose some serious selling, the likes of which investors haven't seen for a long time? Methinks their constitutions will be sorely tested.

Rhodytest#284014/10/2000; 14:48:02

Hello people. My name is Rhody, and I have a problem.
I am yet another loser goldbug. To keep this posting
on a proper golden footing, I would like to observe that
pog followed the $2 rule yet again in closing out COMEX.
My specialty is lease rates, yet I feel that this useful
tool in the manipulator's tool box is just about at the
end of it's career, as rates tend toward zero.
My chief concern for the future pm markets is the death
of visible markets in gold and silver as COMEX does a
TOCOM on gold as TOCOM imposed on platinum, and the shorts
walk away never to deliver. Do traders still do paper
transactions on TOCOM? Is this movie coming to an exchange
near you in gold and silver as well?????

SteveHRhody#284024/10/2000; 15:06:35

Good to see you here Rhody. FOA has supported your thoughts for quite a while now. He has said that the paper market will drive lower until it burns of its own paper, while physical will separate and trade ever higher -- perhaps even moving to a European trading center where the contracts will be backed by physical and the same shenannigans won't happen.
IronHeadHill Billy Mitchell: Leanings #284034/10/2000; 15:10:14

Sir Hill Billy Mitchell- You have the eye of the Coyote, and I'm honored that my allegory of the *garden* and sailor was not beyond grasp. Although actually tilling yesterday, my thoughts were with Sir Henri's remarks of yesterday, and the notable movie "Being There" in which the late Peter Sellers played the part of a mystic *gardner* whom was out of step with the fruitlessness of our modern ways.

I salute your constant update and vigilance of the upside down interest rates we are experiencing. It is "THE" issue of major impact to all markets; paper today - gold and silver tomorrow. IMSSO (In My Simple Serf Opinion). Little be known to us simple nebbish, but me thinks there has been great turmoil in the land of the interest rate derivative trade, and that is what is behind the paper turmoil at the house of Nas and Dow. I await any and all dirt you uncover in your snooping of the garden. Perhaps other tillers of our golden patch can enlighten us on this matter; Sir Oro?


TownCrierCitizens and their monetary choices...and the Fed adds lots of cash to banking system#284044/10/2000; 15:36:52

Today the Bank of Japan's Policy Board once again volted to maintain its "zero-interest rate policy". Fourteen months into this abnormal situation wherein the BOJ has been seen to be dumping yen upon the money markets to help pull Japan out of its worst post-war depression, Japanese individuals are now seen to be seeking higher currency returns on riskier investments, moving some of their vast domestic assets totalling 1,300 trillion yen into foreign currencies and securities. Bank of Japan data shows that total household ownership of foreign stocks and bonds climbed by 11% to an equivalent yen value of 3.2045 trillion by the end of 1999. Furthermore, there was a 60% increase in foreign currency-denominated deposits among Japanese households in 1999, reaching a value equivalent to 2.925 trillion yen. Among the households willing to hold currency under management of another nation, not quite being satisfied with the performance of their own, we wonder how big the mental shift is for these same individuals to find favor in the world's neutral currency, gold. Under the growing Japanese trend to diversify out of their own national currency, at 1,300 trillion yen in savings, the potential to impact gold is something not to be dismissed lightly.

So, that's what the BOJ has been up to. On this side of the Pacific, the Fed has also been pouring money into the system. The Fed conducted its fourth coupon pass within three weeks to add permantent banking reserves through the outright purchase of U.S. Treasury securities dated April 2003 to February 2004. This operation added $726 million in permanent reserves to the banking system.

The Fed also added a rather hefty $6.005 billion in temporary reserves through overnight repurchase agreements. Hefty, that is, especially considering the recent spate of permanent adds in addition to the two still-outstanding 28-day term repos on the books. Will American households also come to seek diversification out of their own national currency? Gold is the natural choice, albeit not the one touted by Wall St. investment houses who would be much happier to sell you options or futures on international currencies, or place your bets on an international mutual fund instead.

But in the final analysis, the only household savings in the hands of many Americans are...their houses. And these are likely mortgaged to the hilt. Walking a highwire without a safety net. Frightening.

SHIFTYNASDAQ/DJIA?PONZI#284054/10/2000; 15:37:48

nasdaq 4188.20 + djia 11186.56 =15374.76 devide by 2 =7687.38 ponzi

todays PONZI 7687.38 (down 91.58)

lamprey_65**A WARNING**#284064/10/2000; 15:54:10

I've been booted off Gold-Eagle! I made all of two posts, all I did was post my email and say I would like to discuss with anyone interested methods of boosting silver/gold demand via email. Vronsky sent me an email with this title in all caps:


I sent him two emails to try to explain myself and he never replied, just removed my post and booted my butt off the site!

So, it appears to me that this guy is really just concerned about his own page views, which I tried to explain I was not trying to compromise (I AM NOW YOU JERK!!!).

I've been a long time lurker/poster both here and on Kitco. I've removed my bookmark to GE. I've been told via email that this isn't the first time Vronsky has acted in such a manner for no apparent reason.

He has not removed sharefin's link to the silver pledge, so this shows that he really is just concerned with page views...what a shame.


HI - HATRhody 28401 TOCOM TO Come?#284074/10/2000; 15:55:30

Hello to you. To your knowledge has COMEX broken bi-laws or exchange rules in allowing this large a short position imbalance in gold and silver? Especially silver ala Ted Butlers contention that only 4 major players have shorted and manipulated silver into dirt. In short can they be sued if malfeasance and failure to maintain an orderly market is shown in the very fact that they have to resort to a TOCOM type butt cover fiasco. I would like to see them in ankle chains.
R PowellHill Billy Mitchell#284084/10/2000; 15:57:00

**Seems your temperature inversion is increasing - more inverted. No?
HenriSir IronHead ...Mind your helm(et)! #284094/10/2000; 16:01:21

Avast Matey! Gun'ls Under! Get thee thy helmet behind me on the windward rails. We be in dire need of some iron ballast here.
HI - HATIronHead Town Crier Interest Rates#284104/10/2000; 16:18:14

IronHead, I think you just hit the nail on the head. the interest rate derivative trade thing is THE issue.
Town Crier:
Is there anything you know to help us better understand what really are the implications of a continuing inverted yield curve?

Harley Davidson@ Lamprey...#284114/10/2000; 17:04:19

Sorry to hear of your demise as it seemed there was an on-going thread regarding the very topic you mentioned. I wonder if they are all gone.

Just as an aside, I saw that several people on GE had requested additional functionality and his response to them was that it wasn't technically possible t because of performance issues. Rather than belittle the guy on the forum, I took the time to send him a lengthy email and explained that his performance problems where due to the fact he is using something called CGI technology on his web server which is obsolete and suggested he consider the java programming language which is much more efficient. Not so much as a "thank you for the suggestion." Screw 'em.

RayLlamprey_65 (4/10/2000; 15:54:10MDT - Msg ID:28406)#284124/10/2000; 17:14:12

Hi Lamprey, just so you don't feel like the Lone Ranger, I was also canned by Veronsky. To this day I do not know why. I have participated in many forums and NEVER had this occur. I e-mailed him 3 times but never received the courtesy of a response.


CoBra(too)Sag mir wo die Freunde sind? #2841304/10/00; 17:32:28

Wohin sind sie gegangen? ...
Die Antwort, die weiss nur der Wind ...

The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind ... blowing in the winds of change... volatility is the new name of the game - and if you have'nt gambled for matchsticks - now's the time to "gamble for gold" ... or never "gamble" at all ... ;-).!.(-;

I've been around too long
singing the old rigged song
of getting to grips
with buying on dips.

irrational sentiment,
to Greenspan's compliment
and your wealth' detriment!

I'd rather have sold
no, never my gold
though the US $
choking my collar
with all the ".com's"
-wohl bekomms! -

(C)ertainly (B)eware (Too)-wice -2

ElwoodHI-HAT, Yield Curve Explained#2841404/10/00; 17:48:13
HenriThe good ship "Golden Keel"#2841504/10/00; 17:53:09

Sure an' it looks like we're in for a blow. The clouds are a gathrin'. The weather glass has fallen fierce these last hours. Just when we expect nothin' to happen here it comes.
Batten down the hatches and stow that new ballast as low to the keelson as possible. Put the silver aft of the gold. those bars'll balance the helm better thar. Prepare to heave to!

HenriWhat "weather glass" you say?#2841604/10/00; 17:58:12

Why the one forged of palladium of course. The TOCOM showed its Tiger face and all aboard her were killed with no quarter. Only now when the bottle washed up did we find out the news. TOCOM froze high to allow the Tiger to escape. Ther'll be a tsunami from it sure.
Rhody@HI-HAT#2841704/10/00; 17:58:25

Since I am not a member of COMEX, I have no idea is large
shorts have broken exchange regulations. In any case, the
point is moot, as in order for such large short exposures
to be demed irregular, they must be called to account, and
I suspect the regulatory authorities do not want to
examine this issue, lest they find illicit trades.
The last time Ted Butler complained about the level of
shorts in silver, COMEX replied that the total shorted was
still less than the total world annual production (I guess
that's supposed to make it alright, as if the rest of world
consumers could just sit idly by while shorts covered their
positions, while more Handy and Harmans went out of business
for lack of metal.) I think this is allowed to go on
because the cheaper manipulation makes silver and gold,
the more confidance the world will have in the USD, which
at last count is backed by confidance plus 3.5 cents of
gold. I think this goes on until the defaults begin, but
this bothers me not as at present prices, and with inflation
factored in, the present price of gold is about the same
as it was at the time of Bretton Woods, and silver is even

Galearis@rhody#2841804/10/00; 18:23:00

Welcome aboard, fellow Canuck!

Perhaps you might answer the question that I posted on this forum the other day? When COMEX goes the "TOCOM" route on silver (surely the first to extinguish in supply), to what form of a market would one as a holder of metal turn to in order to avoid the discounted paper price that would surely be the one quoted during peak spikes for this metal?

Surely under the table transactions for physical metal would bring higher returns, but where would one locate the table? Where would one look to sell? When would one even know when to sell?

In other words, if one wanted to buy a contract (or sell 100 oz. physical) of palladium how would one do this right now?

Cavan ManAnna Karenina#2841904/10/00; 18:24:23

On this Vronsky fellow; he has good intentions I'm sure. However, perhaps he is like Tolstoy's Vronsky in a general way of speaking.

Remember, it's his nickel.

Cavan ManHello Trail Guide#2842004/10/00; 18:25:39

From the cart path to the Gold Trail.........
Cavan ManRhody#2842104/10/00; 18:26:33

Welcome Sir Knight!
LelandHere's an Idea That I'd Enjoy Michael's Comments, Pro and Con#2842204/10/00; 18:28:45

Gold web site aims to boost prices
By Gary Silverman in New York - 10 Apr 2000 20:06GMT

J.P. Morgan, the investment bank, and two of the gold sector's leading companies
are starting an internet site selling "all things gold" in an attempt to boost the
flagging price.

The site, to be called GoldAvenue, is backed by South Africa's AngloGold, the
world's largest gold miner, and Swiss-based PAMP, the world's largest private
gold refiner.

The three planned to sign an agreement today to form a joint venture, which was
expected to go online in the second half of this year. The three companies are
putting up $20m in initial capital for GoldAvenue's first year.

The organisers said the web site would eventually be a one-stop shop for gold
investors and merchants although its initial focus will be on selling gold to retail

Bobby Godsell, AngloGold chief executive, said GoldAvenue was an attempt to find
new gold buyers now that central banks have become sellers.

Market conditions deteriorated to the point last year that European central banks
agreed in September to cap their gold sales during the next five years.

"We have been arguing that if the gold industry is going to take charge of its
destiny, it's going to have to go out and find a customer base directly," Mr Godsell

To that end, GoldAvenue will sell everything from gold watches and chains to
individual grams of the metal. For investors, the minimum balance will be only

"We want to be all things gold," said Mehdi Barkhordar, GoldAvenue's chief
executive and managing director of PAMP. "When you think of gold, you think of

The organisers are looking to target the US market first, before moving into
emerging markets, where gold remains a favoured investment.

"The problem in western markets is gold investments are inaccessible," Godsell
said. "Western markets, we think, have been underdeveloped."

The organisers hope the site would eventually feature business-to-business gold
trading. However, Mr Barkhordar said the partners had no timetable for such
trading and were concentrating on getting the retail operation started before the
Christmas season.

William Winters, head of J.P. Morgan's markets arms, said the bank would
provide trading capabilities and vault services to the joint venture.

GoldAvenue is the latest in a series of internet ventures that J.P. Morgan has
announced in recent months, most of them looking to commercialise existing

[Thanks to FINANCIAL TIMES, London, Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only]

HI - HATElwood 28414#2842304/10/00; 18:35:33

Thanyou for the link. It was very helpful in understanding the pure mechanics of the interest curve in different scenarios, as they apply in a somewhat normally functioning market. Theories for the downsloping curve we have today do point to Central Bank intervention and systemic stresses. What I don't think they cover or could even know of for that matter is the Treasury itself in there buying up and retireing the long bonds, which I surmise must drive up thier price and lower yield. Also I don't think Von Mises could have ever envisioned the magnitude of the amount of risk dollars exposed in the derivatives of bond market that are on the books of Banks,Hedge funds,Freddie
Mac,FHLB,Fannie MAE,etc.,etc.. I still don't have a clue on how this will all end up.

It seems with the Treasury buying the long end and FED raising on the short end, that they are engaged in cross purposes and the derivative time bomb is ticking.

lamprey_65Leland#2842404/10/00; 18:40:14

It's about d*&% time! I've been pushing this idea for months with one gold mining company and their shareholders. I'm not sure where J.P. Morgan comes in here...I don't think I've heard their name mentioned in the short camp before, maybe they are "clean"?
EconoclastJ.P. Morgan#2842504/10/00; 18:58:46

My first post to this site was the "Fifth Horseman" contest where I said it was the derivative bubble (wondering about the silver eagle if anyone in the tower reads this).
I can't remember what I've read about J.P Morgan and shorting gold but I do remember this:
In my post I said that some banks were leveraged up to 100 times their assets in derivatives. J.P. Morgan is the one I remember who is leveraged 100x.

TownCrierA reply to Sir HI-HAT#2842604/10/00; 19:02:54

HI - HAT (4/10/2000; 16:18:14MDT - Msg ID:28410)
"Town Crier:
Is there anything you know to help us better understand what really are the implications of a continuing inverted yield curve?"

I believe to answer I shall offer my short-course: "Better Understanding Through Metaphor"

We now witness a feast wherein conventional standards play no role. The guests stand upon the table eating pudding without silverware, wiping their paws and mouths upon the tablecloth. Those with refinement have already left the table to the dogs.

LelandThanks, Lamprey#2842704/10/00; 19:03:52

For posting the article at Kitco. If there are any
productive comments from the Kitco forum, please pass them
to our group. Thanks again.

pdeepCorporate Donors to Campaigns#2842804/10/00; 19:15:01

From today's WSJ:

Top Contributing Companies to Bush and Gore campaigns


MBNA $208,000
Vinson & Elkins $190,350
AXA Financial $170,550
Andersen Worldwide $161,400
Ernst & Young Intl. $154,799


Ernst & Young Intl. $125,125
Viacom Inc. $86,800
BellSouth Corp. $72,250
Goldman Sachs & Co. $71,250
Citigroup Inc. $66,750

HenriA hearty welcome to you Sir Rhody#2842904/10/00; 19:36:27

Your reputation has preceded you. By word of our fellow knights your seat at the table awaits and a fine feast has been laid out to welcome you.
HenriHi Hat 28423 and Elwood 28414#2843004/10/00; 19:42:53

Perhaps that is the purpose and only the appearance of cross purpose to deflect blame. Detonation of the derivative overhang. An attempt, (in the manner of Sir Town Crier in metaphor)to set blasts to bring down the avalanche in a relatively controlled manner so as to minimize the damage and not let the overhang grow to large. Methinks they have waited too long.
HenriClink...Klunk#2843104/10/00; 19:48:58

More pretty in the kitty!
YGMlamprey_65#2843204/10/00; 21:26:44

A "little" Secret......

Just so you don't feel dejected, (smiles)....I know of a little group of "26" folks from GE Forum, all of which are known names from the last year or two. Some are fellow removees, like you and I, and some just like the place better. Still a forum and exchange but "No Censorship". Regards...YGM.
$5 IndianRollercoaster#2843304/10/00; 21:31:02

Looking for a 400 point drop on the Nasdaq tomarrow? Going to retest receint lows? That's right LOWES KNOWS!!! Snooze and you loose. Buy and you'll cry. Sell at the Bell. Hold if you're bold but the big bluff may just fold.

Specifically, if volume is heavier going down than on the first half of the Tues minicrash, then most technical chart guys are going to conclude that selling pressure has increased and not diminished. They want to see a real bottom creation pattern with lighter volume and selling being overcome with strong buying coming off the bounce. If they see heavy selling volume way in excess of what they expect, then they may not cover their shorts and wait for more selling panic to arrive. Such a mystery. The Poseidon Adventure. Ernest Borgnine will get you out but you have to be willing to go with the ratty looking people (scraped up from taking losses) out through the hull. The lilly white longs are all gonna die as they can't think for themselves only following their parrothead analysts.

1st Grade Reading Primer:

See Tip form. Go Tip go. See market bounce like a ball. Bouncing bouncing ball. If Tip forms slow, market may rollover again. See brokers yell, sell, sell, sell. See Market Makers dropping bids. Low, low,lower dropping bids. Watch gold lift off like a rocket. Woosh, going up high in the sky. See Goldin sacks pull out his hammer. Hammering the spike back down. Hammering and hammering.

That's enough reading today boys and girls. Now let's all lay down on our blankets and have a short 6 hour nap. That's if anyone can sleep waiting for a 10 Dollar Spike.

Greenspan gave a deep lecture today, not a politician's usual pander. It was some profound analysis, but you get this feeling that they really aren't in control of the market and they can't even measure many factors in the equation. All I could think of was how they want China in the WTO so bad so they can import more super-cheap products to import some deflation to offset what they know is happening. Market meltdown continues. They will do exactly what they did last time in '98. Quickly inject cash somewhere less noticible to support anyone who wants to risk the farm buying a downtrend with no visible signs of turnaround. Foreign investors are the key to propping up this market. We are the shallow migrain stressed out Americans running hard with no real direction........but who has been suckered into supporting it? Sven, kookoo clock repair just isn't going to make it in 2001. Let's sell that stuff online. Sure send all your money over here. We know deregulation is a handful of bitter pills to swallow. Socialism is a wonderful way of life any boyscouts can tell you. But we are too obese to have free national healthcare. A certain percentage of our population fell into pork barrel giveaway politics. The SUV craze was a solution to obesity. Why loose weight when you can buy a bigger vehicle and take the fat with you, plus there is more room for the kids. A frugal minded population like yours in Europe can handle socialism but we have too many resources to waste. We are spoiled brats and computerization is warping our culture like a lava lamp. Nobody wanted to loose weight with Y2K coming at them. I had prepacked a 2 month food supply right here on my body.

Very interesting scenario in Japan. Imagine how you would feel if your president died and the new rulers decided to debase your currency 10 Billion yen while your job is still in jeopardy and the US stockmarket begins to tank.......

All this gold they are buying is becoming "family emergency gold" it will be buried for a long time.



O3 is a heavy molecule,atomic weight 48. Water is 20. It is created when cosmic rays from the sun bombard water molecules evaporating from the oceans. The hydrogen breaks off and streams toward the sun. Some comes from lightening but not alot. If you have noticed, the earth spins on its axis like a bastetball on Someone's finger. So as it spins, heavier molecules naturally move toward the outer edges of the sphere leaving a scarcity of the heavy molecules at the top and bottom of the basketball. The ozone "holes" were discovered "already formed" but one-worlders who want to scare everyone with waco science nonfacts insist it thinned-out and grew. Ozone holes were always there probably always will be there. I'm not impling with this slam against one worlders who also must feel comfortable working for 55 cents per hour like this "level wage rate playing field" suggests, that global warming isn't going to wreck the planet. Not wreck......just severly alter. Greenland is becoming a pasture. Alaska is farmable. The US grainbelt just moves up to Canada. And New York City becomes like Venice, Italy. What more can you ask for in a planetary disturbance? Alot better direction than the recurring iceage theory they toy with when it seems too cold. "We went fishing for Stripers today off the Manhatten skyscrapers. Lost alot of tackle getting hooked in the steel." It's In your generation son. And New Orleans and Holland disappear like Atlantis. It's going to split the Marde Gra right in two. Oceanliners up the Mississippi. Deepwaterports ahoy. Crayfish farming in Texas. Yahoo what's a goldbug to look forward to. All that and whirled peas.

I'm on this enviromental binge, just let me go.

Carbon locked up in trees has to be harvested and not allowed to return as CO2 exhaled by wood rotting organisms to produce a net production of oxygen in the tree's life. Trees growing do all produce oxygen in their lifetime. However in their death when they lie on the forest floor rotting, they give back all the carbon they ever took out of the air and consume the oxygen they gave out in their life. CO2 consumed in tree's life = CO2 given off after tree's death. All the wood rotting organisms the aerobic ones consume oxygen and exhale CO2 when eating the wood. All the fossil fuels we burn are causing global warming, but don't run around saying we are running out of air because some international banker put the screws to a third world government to pay back its loans so they mined a rainforest. It's not the loggers it's the bankers stupid. Bankers are wiping out rainforests. And we can breathe even in winter when there is no photosynthesis going on. Amazing how gamma radiation can produce our oxygen supply above the ionisphere. How about a candlelight vigil for all the bankers rotting in hell not producing any more oxygen.

Gandalf the WhiteCOMEX Paper Gold Sales VOLUME#2843404/10/00; 21:40:07

THERE IS NONE ! What therefore,do you think that the owners of the floor seats are thinking of at this time ? No pit trader can make any monies without sales and therefore the seats will be coming on the market rather cheaply. Could this be the first step in the burning of paper gold ? Something is UP !

TownCrierFed Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking today before the National Automated Clearinghouse Association; on "Retail Payment Systems"#2843504/10/00; 21:52:33

Like it or not, believe it or not, the Fed Chairman IS an ally to all those who hold physical gold near and dear. He seized the opportunity to prominently fold gold into his monetary remarks to the NACA Annual Meeting on the electronic evolution at work upon our settlement systems. In an extention of his past "antics", where any other speaker might have easily delivered such a speech with no mention of the yellow metal, Mr. Greenspan clearly takes efforts toward putting it "back on the radar screen," (and decidedly NOT so in an unfavorable light) revealing his own personal and continuing reverence for gold as the ulimate monetary asset.

"...the payment systems of the United States present a paradox. Our systems and banking arrangements for handling large-value dollar payments are all electronic and have been for many years. Banking records, including those for loans and deposits, have been computerized since the 1960s. Securities markets also now rely on highly automated records and systems, born out of necessity following the paperwork crisis of the 1970s. Yet in transactions initiated by consumers, paper--currency and checks--remains the payment system of choice."

"Indeed, the average consumer is exceptionally conservative and traditional when it comes to money, which has a profoundly important role in day-to-day living. To the vast majority of people, it represents the stored value of one's previous efforts. To many, it is the embodiment of their life's work. Tampering with money has always had profoundly political implications. Much of American politics of the late nineteenth century, for example, was about the gold standard and the free silver movement. William Jennings Bryan's famous "Cross of Gold" speech during the presidential campaign of 1896 reflected the deep-seated views of money's role in society and, even today, one can hear echoes of that debate in the public discourse about money."

[TownCrier Note: "PUBLIC DISCOURSE about MONEY"?? Methinks the Fed Chairman must be looking in on our discussions as his schedule allows.]

"Our history vividly affirms that the average person is far more sensitive to what form our money--our store of value and medium of exchange--takes than we payments system specialists have readily understood. It took many generations for people to feel comfortable accepting paper in lieu of gold or silver. It is taking almost as long to convince them that holding money and making payments in ephemeral electronic form is as secure as using paper.
"There is, of course, more to the tenacity of paper than a deep psychological connection between money and tangible wealth. Paper instruments also are perceived to have a greater degree of privacy than electronic payments, although there have been experiments with electronic money and other instruments that would provide relatively high levels of privacy. But confidence in such arrangements may take quite awhile to emerge. Currency, and to a large degree checks, are currently perceived to offer significant advantages in privacy over electronic payment systems that entail centrally maintained databases with elaborate records of individual transactions.
"Perhaps an even more important dimension influencing our behavior regarding money and payments is convenience. Currency and checks do not require the users to travel to special locations, dial the number of a special machine, or maintain special equipment to originate payments. This is not to deny that automation has played an important role in reducing risks and increasing efficiency in handling currency and checks. Rather, the issue is that traditional paper instruments allow the users themselves, within a structured format, to have significant control over when, where, and how to make payments.
Turning to the suppliers of payment instruments and services, we see that many are straddling two different worlds. The world of paper is well known and a major part of the business of traditional financial institutions. The world of electronic commerce is a new and growing part of business that is changing daily and operating on a different time scale."

"Many firms, including financial firms, have now opened channels of data communication with existing and potential customers and business partners through the Internet. In this world, particularly in retail commerce, payments by paper have been the exception, not the rule. Despite ongoing discussions about privacy and security in electronic commerce, credit cards have rapidly become the payment instrument of choice for consumers. Interestingly, there have been experiments with new payment systems analogous to private currency. To date, these products have not been widely successful, despite the fact that some have offered significant degrees of privacy and security. Instead, familiarity with and confidence in the credit card built up over more than half a century of use seem for now to have shaped behavior. Some suppliers have sought to deepen confidence by voluntarily expanding consumer protections. In a twist of history, even gold coins can now be purchased on line with a credit card."

[T.C.: He has thereby planted the seeds of thought. With this in mind, we now skip ahead to his concluding remarks which should take on additional significance to the careful reader. Obviously, he can be no more direct in his approach than this. Take it for what it is, or leave it as fanciful thinking.]

"As I have often said, to continue to be effective, government's regulatory role must increasingly be focused on assuring that adequate risk management systems are in place in the private sector. As financial systems have become more complex, detailed rules and standards have become both more burdensome and less effective. If we wish to foster financial innovation, we must first be careful not to impose rules that inhibit it, and we must be especially watchful that we not unduly impede our increasingly broad electronic payments system.
Thus, the private sector needs to play the pivotal role in determining what payment services consumers and businesses actually demand and in supplying those services. In a period of change and uncertainty there may be a temptation, and a desire by some market participants, to have the government step in and resolve the uncertainty, whether through standards, regulation, or other policies. In the case of electronic payment innovations, only consumers and merchants will ultimately determine what new products are successful in the marketplace. Government action can retard progress, but almost certainly cannot ensure it."

"As you begin this three-day conference focusing on new developments in the payments system, I hope that you will approach your discussions WITH A SENSE OF BOTH HISTORY and of new opportunities. CENTURIES OF EXPERIENCE have been distilled into our traditional forms of paper payments, and change has not always come quickly. Yet new technologies and new forms of business are engines for change. More fundamentally, the enthusiasm of our society for experiment and innovation reflects a strong sense of CONFIDENCE about the future that began in the VERY EARLY DAYS OF OUR COUNTRY. I am confident that THIS PAST WILL BE PROLOGUE."

[Emphasis added by TownCrier. I encourage you to read the whole affair for proper context. This has been distilled for those who might be short on time.]

elevator guyFEDERAL RESERVE GOES UP IN FLAMES!!! Well, almost.#2843604/10/00; 22:53:55

Los Angeles, 7:40 pm, April 10, 2000

409 Olympic St.

Corner of Olympic and Grand Streets

Smoke billows out the windows of the old Federal Reserve Bank, with the interior fully engulfed in flames.

Building was vacant.

A shadow of things to come?

TownCrierThe IMF's sister organization, the World Bank, is looking for additional source of capital#2843704/10/00; 22:57:03

Reuters HEADLINE: Cash-strapped World Bank warns of lending curbs

Next Monday The World Bank's Development Committee will meet as part of the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings, and a report to be discussed indicates that the World Bank will try to continue its mission within limits on existing resources, but that capital increases from member countries may be needed. The report says, "(The World Bank's) financial capacity remains a cause for concern for reasons that go beyond the global shock scenario... New lending to many large borrowers which are home to most of the global poor may be constrained." Acording to Reuters, "Other items on the committee's agenda include the future role for the bank, which was set up to speed reconstruction after World War Two and which now concentrates on long-term loans to poor countries in Africa, Latin America, Asia and eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union."

Here is another timely look at some content from two TownCrier posts from Saturday (Msg ID:28317 and 28326):
Putting Two and Two together on the IMF gold operations...

Here's what Reuters had to say ... "the deal creates windfall profits for the IMF because...IMF gold is valued at some $48 per ounce, while the market price is around $283."

Government agencies LOVE windfall profits. Some might say such "easy money" is addictive.
Can you see how all governments might come to use such a scheme...

While we all agree that the gold derivative markets are used as a means to suppress the price (and apparent value) of gold to reap the attendant benefits of the dollar duly "strengthened" thereby, the day approaches wherein the institutional benefits will be greater to let gold run.

TownCrierU.S. dollar swap spreads register record highs#2843804/10/00; 23:23:49

U.S. dollar swap spreads register record highs

The 10-year swap spread (the gap between double-A corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries) closed at a record high of 136 basis points (far exceeding the 119 basis point spread during the October 1987 stock market crash. Adding to the unease is the recently floated idea that the Treasury credit line currently enjoyed by agencies may go the way of the dinosaur.

TownCrierUpdate on COMEX Delivery Notices for the April gold contract#2843904/10/00; 23:37:20

Thus far there have been 9,715 contracts held up for delivery, representing 971,500 troy ounces of gold to change possession prior to month's end. That's 30.2 tonnes.
THC@Rhody#2844004/11/00; 01:46:52


Good evening......

I watched Pt and Pd for a few years on Tocom......they were in backwardation THE WHOLE TIME.

I would suggest that backwardation is a reflection of spot demand pulling the futures.......I don't think you need to worry about silver/gold on the Comex until they are in deep backwardation.

It's still early, but I am now slowly buying physical silver walking liberty halves.....beautiful......and available at premiums.


Black BladeEarly Morning Tidbits!#2844104/11/00; 04:26:01

Source: Bridge news

Australia's Delta CEO sees gold price above US $300/oz short-term

Perth--April 11--Spot gold prices are likely to rise above US $300 per ounce in the short term and could subsequently extend those gains, according to Terry Burgess, managing director and chief executive officer of Australia's Delta Gold. However, Burgess also noted the exchange rate has cushioned the effects of
the falling US dollar gold price for Australian producers and warned that may not be the case going forward. (Story .24584)

Black Blade: I hope so!

US' Newmont concedes that size matters in competing for funds

Perth--Apr 11--Global fund managers are making it clear to the gold industry that size matters in attracting investment. And combined with operational and regulatory considerations, this creates "compelling reasons" for consolidation amongst gold producers, according to Ronald Cambre, chairman and chief executive
officer of US gold producing major Newmont Mining Corp. (Story .10749)

Black Blade: No kidding Sherlock!

ss of nep(No Subject)#284424/11/2000; 6:30:18

Now people can e-mail jpMorgan - and complain
HenriWhy compete?#284434/11/2000; 6:58:06

This is mining companies should not have to beg for funding they should go right to the motherlode...ME princes.
HenriTown Crier...Thanks for the condensed G-speak#284444/11/2000; 7:18:58

I agree that greenspun has a long history of being a "closet" goldbug. I think you are certainly correct in your assessment of his content. It seems he may have an e-gold account.
Black BladeFireworks today?#284454/11/2000; 7:27:39

Hey Au suddenly up $1.40, and s&p futures sharply lower at -9.00. Another fun day on the street!!!!!
agbullTHC#284464/11/2000; 8:27:41

THC, Do you have a source for the walking liberty halves at such a good price??

Thanks in advance

$5 IndianTHC#284474/11/2000; 8:29:28

It was interesting what you said about backwardation. Can you expound a little on it so we know what to look for as to silver and gold going into backwardation?
USAGOLDToday's Gold Report: Short Covering Continues, Options Expiration Friday#284484/11/2000; 8:36:16

4/11/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/11/00): Gold was up again this morning on light short
covering. "So far it's been quiet today but prices look supported for now on
reasonable physical demand," said one London dealer. "It could certainly go
higher -- by this time next week we'll be at or above $285." Gold prices are
"likely" to rise above $300 an ounce, says Terry Burgess, the CEO for
Australia's Delta Gold in a Bridge News report this morning. Gold trading was
sluggish in Asia overnight after yesterday's reports of strong physical
demand in Tokyo resulting from the weak yen. Thursday we get both the PPI and
CPI numbers. Friday we have COMEX option expiration which could accelerate
the short covering trend over the next few days.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click on link above and make the appropriate entries.

IronHeadTHC Konichiwa#284494/11/2000; 8:39:34

Sir Thomas- I've tracked you from the Longwaves group to here and back; nice to see your handle again.

As I recall you were, or are in Japan. Since we only get what the Grabbit wants us to hear (in the US), and little has been tossed our way regarding the new Prime Minister and Cabinet changeover, I'm curious as to the political mood change in Japan since my visit last fall (family and friends). Japan being the true last bastion of a cash society, should bode well for gold, no? Most in the US would be amazed that few Japanese have ever even heard of a check. Debt and IOU's are not the norm for people that keep roughly 70K under the futon, per ea. man, woman, and dog.

I seem to recall a figure from TC (?), that Japan's gold intake 4th qtr. last year increased 25% year on year. Do you, (if still in Japan), have a feel for how folks over there are reacting to their no interest inflationary environment? Gold aquisitions increasing by the average person?

Thanks, and nice to see you again.


LeighSharefin - Gold Pledge#284504/11/2000; 9:16:57

Hi, Sharefin! Love your new Gold Pledge! You're right -- at any time someone can come along and suck up all the available supply, leaving none for average investors. The time to buy is now!

Who are the people in the photo at the bottom of the Gold Pledge page?

SharefinLeigh - the GOLD PLEDGE#284514/11/2000; 9:25:13

Due to the popularity of the SILVER PLEDGE
I've created THE GOLD PLEDGE

The SILVER PLEDGE is now well past 50,000 ounces.
Power to the people.

Sign up but don't give your gold away.
Stash it well for the coming bull.

I don't know who's in the photo.
It's an old one I founf on the net ages ago.
Looks like it could be a war stash.

It'd look great in my cellar.(:-)))

$5 IndianIronHead#284524/11/2000; 10:13:23

Ohayogozaimasu, When I was in Japan in '94 I saw a row of at least 200 bicycles without one lock on them parked outside a city bus terminal. It gave me the feeling like I was at the seashore in the 70's. I saw a small shop selling $500 Italian suits from his garage and he wasn't even present to "guard the store". In these Samauri Castles they had floorboards that were nailed so they would squeek whenever someone walked over them. There welfare system for the elderly was one where the pay high prices for rice locally grown. So the older people would be out working their plots of land growing rice that they can sell for very high prices. So they see US rice exports as a threat to their welfare system for the elderly. I think they put the verb at the end of the sentence because the farmer would be talking to the samauri and would quickly change his question into a statement if he saw the expression change on the samauri's face thus saving his neck if the question was offensive. To acheive that level of obedience to conscience in our country would also require about a thousand years of capital punishment for minor infractions. I guess without tribal wars that was their way of keeping the population to a feedable number or maybe it just worked out that way.
IronHead$5 Indian#284534/11/2000; 11:01:08

Ogenki desu-ka? Pleasure to hear of your tales from the far side. My favorite story of honor in Japan comes from a visit to a business office with a friend working in Tokyo. Upon entering an empty room during lunch hour, I spotted a very large stack of cash (yen at 150 to the dollar - 1990), with the owner no where in sight.Querying my friend, I learned that the cash rich fellow had just sold a house, and was going to buy a car after work. My first exposure to what "cash society" really meant. Gave all new meaning to cash and carry. A lesson for me was that although Christians by and large do not exist in Japan, Christianity is abundant everywhere.

Makes me tingly all over thinking about how the price of the shiny yellow will appreciate when Japan's current economic environment leads to the only logical conclusion for it's citizens.

Would be great to hear from those in the Castle Keep, on the other side of the Pond (Pacific). I remember how gold took off when I was in Thailand back in '97 as the baht was crashing. Would be great to hear first hand how the price and availabilty of physical is doing while the currencies are girating wildly.

By the by, I REALLY enjoy your commentay on market dynamics and all- as I'd say when I had a few more hairs on top, "Faaaarm Out"!


PS. The Shogun's were quite enamored of feudal thrashing amongst themselves, to quell the popualtion numbers.

$5 IndianSharefin#284544/11/2000; 11:10:09

I think the silver pledge is the only one you should promote because if we divide the pledges then it diminishes the effect. We may not even generate enough for silver, but I'm all for it as I was going to buy in to silver heavy soon anyway. It really is worthwhile for silver. Silver is a strategic industrial metal. A little bit of hoarding by many individuals could move the price especially when we have a Warren Buffet buying silver and who knows how many boats are following him out to the fishing grounds. Let the gold pledge die so the silver has more impact. They are both great ideas though.
YGMSharefin & Chris Powell...(GATA)#284554/11/2000; 11:38:48

Producers Boycotting Gold Sales.....

This is just a thought I've had for along time......Why not appeal to the Hard Rock 'and' the Placer Gold producers to retain as high a percentage of production in physical as possible for even 1 year. Contacting alll the different mining associations etc in a few different parts of the world could have potential for tightening the market to some extent, and we all know this is a "Every Little Bit Helps" scenario in the quest for free trading Gold!.....Regards-YGM
TownCrierThings that make you say "Hmmmmmmmmm...veeerry interesting."#284564/11/2000; 12:12:50

It's that time of the week again, and the European Central Bank has released the weekly balance sheets for the 11 member central banks.

Our newswires provided three short spots of text to convey the essential data without further explanation. It would seem that the ECB's net foreign exchange assets have declined on the week by 1.5 billion euros (to 265.0 billion) as a result of "transactions with [the] IMF."

(In an unrelated note, some of you may have missed it over the weekend, we reported on Saturday that the IMF last week had completed its original phase of authorization for gold revaluations from SDR 35 ($47) to current market value. Regularly scheduled IMF loan repayments by Brazil and Mexico were used to facilitate the revaluation of 12.944 million troy ounces of gold, raising $3 billion in "free" funds.)

On this paticular reference to the ECB/IMF "transaction", your guess is as good as mine.

Meanwhile, as the foreign exchange assets were drawn down, the ECB's total gold assets increased by 1 million euros to 115.677 billion. This increase in value could only come about by the receipt of new gold into the euro system of central banks because, as we reported last week, the effects of the quarterly "mark to market" gold revaluation were in place as of March 31. (The result was a small decline.) We wonder if it is possible that this small amount of gold was somehow obtained through the IMF transaction involving the FX assets, or if this might represent the gold income from extant gold leasing operations among the members.

VanRipSharefin, Leigh - Gold Picture#284574/11/2000; 12:13:28

Great picture. Looks as if it's part of the Japanese hoard at the end of WW II. From the look on the face of the guy in front, I wouldn't be surprised that the gold was destined for parts unknown. Bet ORO would appreciate the picture.

If I'm looking at the same picture, the man in the middle appears to be Gen Douglas Macarthur, supreme allied commander of Pacific forces during WW II. He signed for the US the unconditional surrender of Japan on the USS Missouri back in September of 1945. It was the official end of the war with Japan. I had a brother in the navy at the time on board another warship in the flotilla. Another brother was in the European theatre flying B17 bombers over Germany.

Gen Macarthur was very famous back then. When he was forced to leave the Phillipines early in the war because of the Japanese threat, he was quoted as saying "I shall return." He did. His picture wading in the surf toward a rescue boat and that quote were in all the papers.

The man to the general's left appears to be Emperor Hirohito who was emperor of Japan from 1926 until his death in 1989. His reign was the longest of all Japanese emperors. The dropping of the atom bombs on Japan convinced him that Japan could not win. He is credited with convincing the ruling council to surrender.

Several years later, Macarthur was responsible for sending American troops north of the 48th parallel in Korea in an attempt to end the fight between the North and South during the Korean War (called police action then) and against the direction of President Truman. When the Americans neared the Yalu River, the Chinese, who had been massing across the river, entered the war. The Americans could not hold them back. I had a good buddy killed when the Chinese overran his position. I was in the military then, but, fortunately for me, stateside. Truman fired Macarthur over the disobeying of his order and the bruhaha that resulted from the Chinese intervention fiasco, and Macarthur returned to the US to a hero's welcome. I remember the newsreels showing the ticker tape parade in NYC. When he retired he gave a famous gravelly-voiced speech that was broadcast endlessly and that ended with the oft quoted (back then) "Old soldiers never die, they just fade away." He loved West Point and "the Corps, the Corps." Anyway, that's the way I remember things.

Don't recognise the third man. Probably the CEO from Goldman Sachs (just kidding). Don't believe GS was around then.

$5 IndianIronHead#284584/11/2000; 12:20:17

Genkides, I was in a penpal club wanting to meet a fine Asian girl after being transfered to to boondocks of NC. So we were writing and after 7 months she sent me a plane ticket. Scared to fly but flew anyway. She was a little too much older than me but really kind. I never poured my own beer. American men have been so beaten into sensetivity that anywhere you go overseas the women are kind to the extreme. A little too much psychological incompatability. I finally came back and married a sweet honey from the P.I. I eat breakfast in bed every other day if I want. I haven't washed a full sink of dishes or run a load of wash since. I fix the cars and do the Mr. fixits. 5 years all the same so far. My marrage to who the "Guess Who" were singing about would last about a day and an hour so I never got started. Serious cultural bypass surgery to keep myself sane.

Back to the markets

Seems like it wants to buy its way out of the hole it fell into in the morning. I think it is all very selective now and without knowing the major positions of fund managers it's a big roulette wheel in the short and near long term. The internet junk is getting bought up but what for I don't know. Some oil explor stuff is getting a lift. Utilities are dead. Tech is all on an individual basis, no judgement calls. I think it's going to rally strong tomarrow then get nailed from people wanting out who have waited. Like a wild volatility band forming that slows down and dumps real bad in a week or so. That is a pure guess but the very long shadow hammer of Tues shows serious support in the short term with pessimism constantly building as it won't go back up to previous levels. Then some major dump and crisis bleed-down. The Republicans have to monkey with the oil price and let the Alaska Rep speak out about Clinton's lack of an energy policy. How many cards do the Republican's have? Weak dollar is the other one. A stock market crash they don't want as it isn't repairable. But it is no human hand playing all this out.
It took me a long time to figure out what Shinto was. I would see these big Tori arches in the rivers and lakes and finally it dawned on me. They consider those supra-natural places to be holy and the arch represents a door to heaven. Kind of interesting. They follow their conscience as a religion and try to clean their minds with the spirit of truth when they meditate. Some are just going through the motions but the older people keep watch over their hearts. They answer questions based on what you thought not what you ask, mind readers. I wouldn't dare live over there too long or else you could get mush-mind as the concept of right and wrong take on the understanding of acceptable and not acceptable. I need a black and white world, right and wrong. But I think the meditation to clean one's mind is as useful as taking a shower after working in a field. Surrender to the Spirit of Truth, not organized money religion.

Ok for a longshot..........................The reason N. Korea is making gestures for unification is because the Chinese put them up to it. Then as they unify the hassle of US troop presence makes S.Korea turn antiAmerican. S. Korea wants nuke tech from the North so they will have to kick us out before they can utilize it. Koreans only unite when faced with a common enemy. Once that enemy is removed they fall back to for a unity against the next enemy. Once N. Korea is not the enemy, then we become the problem. So we leave the DMZ area. Now China can actually move toward Taiwan because unification is the wonderful festive occasion. N. Korea /S.Korea is China's next card. N. Korea will say we can unify only if the Americans leave. We're history. S. Korean students will be sitting in the streets with the white bandanas around their heads taking vows of starvation beating on drums chanting Yankee go home in 4 dialects. Clinton needs to send Madaline Albright over there to ride around in a rickshaw and wave alot.

I think oil will somehow go back up and the dollar down, that double whammy should give gold a high flag.

ElwoodSharefin's Photo#284594/11/2000; 13:28:34

It's a composite of 2 or more photos. That's obvious from the coloration. Don't read anything significant into it. Any photo of a meeting of MacArthur and Hirohito would not have any color whatsoever in it.
Hill Billy MitchellThe long and the short of it#284604/11/2000; 13:50:36


30-year Treasury rate = 5.77%

Fed Funds rate = 5.97%

upside down spread = (.20%)

Oswald MurphyGold chart patterns, head, shoulders, channels, etc.#284614/11/2000; 14:38:44

It is intriguing to see many gold bugs basing their decisions to buy/sell physical gold and gold mining shares, on technical analysis rather than macroeconomics factors, i.e. calling Greenspan or his bosses; King Bubba at the Oval Office, and/or Rubin at Golden Sucks. Has anybody still doubt the U.S. Markets are not rigged?

Gandalf the WhiteANOTHER day of next to NOTHING Volume in Paper Gold at the COMEX#284624/11/2000; 15:01:55

What is that dance that the Hobbits are doing? -- Something about "how low can you go" ---

TownCrierSomething is going down...#284634/11/2000; 17:02:12

After coolly taking past operation in stride, this one woke us up here in The Tower. The Fed today conducted its FIFTH **permanent** add to banking reserves within a three week span with an eyepopping total of $2.294 billion in outright purchases of Treasury bills. (Such permanent adds have previously been on a more rare basis, and generally less than $1 billion.)

What's more, the Fed today ALSO had a hefty temporary addition of $6.050 billion to banking reserves through well-worn overnight system repurchase agreements.

TownCrierThe Japanese government has finally steered the masses in their preferred direction#284644/11/2000; 17:30:20

Following the Bank of Japan continuing to demonstrate their resolve to keep the yen weak and keeping returns low due to near zero percent interest rates, Japanese investors are in fact starting to dump their yen (from maturing 10-year deposits with the massive postal savings system backed by the Japanese government) on the world markets as they seek a chance to obtain higher yielding investments, including foreign assets. Of the 4.76 trillion yen in 10-year term deposits that have matured so far in April, 47 percent (equivalent to $21 billion) were withdrawn from the postal savings system. The government had been expecting a withdrawal rate of 33% over the next two years as a whopping 106 trillion in 10-year deposits reach maturity.

The yen was trading down today on Foreign Exchange markets, attributed to Japanese investors moving their money abroad. Overnight the dollar topped 107 yen, and traders are saying it could reach as high as 108.25 by week's end. Obviously, their pursuit of dollar-denominated assets provides a nice boost to the purchasing power of everyone currenly holding dollars. However, given the slim physical gold market in contrast to the vast dollar market, any yen moving toward gold will provide a boost for gold valuation far more than it could possibly boost the dollar's purchasing power.

As background, please recall some previous news we reported recently from The Tower in which gold imports by Japan have already been on the rise, with 1999 figures up by 25-30 percent.

SHIFTYtodays NY ponzi#284654/11/2000; 17:46:17

PONZI 7671.49 down 15.89
Hill Billy MitchellTownCrier (4/11/2000; 17:02:12MDT - Msg ID:28463)#284664/11/2000; 17:52:30

Something is going down...
After coolly taking past operation in stride, this one woke us up here in The Tower. The Fed today conducted its FIFTH **permanent** add to banking reserves within a three week span with an eyepopping total of $2.294 billion in outright purchases of Treasury bills. (Such permanent adds have previously been on a more rare basis, and generally less than $1 billion.)

What's more, the Fed today ALSO had a hefty temporary addition of $6.050 billion to banking reserves through well-worn overnight system repurchase agreements.

Sir TC

These are T-Bills and not long Bonds?? Is it of more or less significance that the Fed is buying the short-term debt as opposed to the long-term debt? If so could you elaborate please.?

Thanks in advanced


HI - HATGandalf the White 28462 PAPYRUS VOLUME#284674/11/2000; 18:16:58

Hello.... Steven Kaplan, prognosticator, over at www., was asked about the light volume on COMEX.

[FROM APRIL 10: QUESTION: Why do you suppose that COMEX gold trading has been so light recently? ANSWER: With the gold market at an important inflection point, everyone seems to be waiting for everyone else to make the first important move in one direction or the other. This also explains why the XAU has been behaving more erratically than usual, especially on an interday basis. The eventual direction of gold should be inversely proportional to the behavior of the Nasdaq. If the Nasdaq recovers and moves solidly and steadily toward new highs, gold is likely to decline. Should the Nasdaq continue to generally weaken, especially if it does so with large interday moves in both directions, gold will respond strongly to the upside. The latter is a far more likely possibility.]

Well thats his take and I would add the observation, that he seems never to infer in his observations, that more and more "traders", are recognizing what a big CON game the COMEX is and are realizing how rigged it is against the little guy. They may not want to play anymore.

Also, this light volume may have something to do with what FOA alluded to in the last Trail Walk of things beginning to cook behind the scenes.

I myself see potential for a good move up in here, with prices maintaining at $300 + level after move.

Hill Billy MitchellOfficial release#284684/11/2000; 18:19:19

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 11, 2000

Rates for Monday, April 10, 2000

Federal funds 6.05

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.85
10-year 5.80
20-year 6.04
30-year 5.69

PH in LAArchive THOUGHTS#284694/11/2000; 18:44:46

Date: Sun Dec 07 1997 18:45
Will we have "Deja-vu" again?

Some people have followed the gold market from 1970. Some

have followed it all their lives, depending on when you were

born. Some say they were right, as the market has fallen and

they held "no gold". They council from experience and a short


But, some have traded gold from times before.

Those who trade with the sun know we will never have

"Deja-Vu" again. This market is unlike anything from the past.

And those with a "short life" of investing will learn from this

coming future as gold will show their knowledge was limited

to where they stood on the mountain!

Unlike the past, this market has an end. And this end will not

be for those who have waited to buy! They see this bottom

at $100 or $200 or $250, and they will buy at the turn as no

fool should have held from $360! But, I say they will buy only

paper if lucky!

All should make ready and be holding metal only, as the turn

will move $100+ the first day and $200 the second day as

comex is closed! It will trade no more from the 3rd day on!

The gold market of your youth will be no more! For those

who were smart from experience not to buy at $400, will

look at $600 as "the deal of a lifetime".

To close,

Try to live in this outcome and see how different the world

will be. It will not be the end of all things, only the changing

of most things in "western thought". The "Digital Currencies"

will still trade, but we will value them as not before.

Anyone who has sold gold they do not have will not be

allowed to cover that position. Anyone who has brought gold

they do not have will not be allowed to cover that position.

Many will lose all they have in a world without honor! Looking

back , one will ask, "how could I have thought that noone

wanted gold, when more of it was being brought than existed"?

Indeed, more gold than exists or will be produced in the next

ten years! And some say, "only a fool would say the market

was cornered".

During that time, a gold stock in the hand will not trade on

an open market! And the government of the country, of the

land, of the mine, will no doubt speak with you of new taxes

on GOLD!

A year has passed as the winds of change have started to

blow. Waste no more time on paper gold, you have suffered

enough. Play paper games no more, as the future of your

family waits a decision.

TownCrierSir Hill Billy Mitchell, you have a keen eye#284704/11/2000; 18:45:38

I did in fact say Treasury BILL in my report, and so it is. Today's operation involved the outright purchase of these short-term Tresuries. The Fed targeted nine bills due between April 20 through August 3rd of this year.

In contrast, Monday's operation to add permanent reserves involved the outright purchase of longer term Treasury notes (target dates April 2003 to February 2004). I have a fair recollection that the previous three permanent adds were longer term securities also.

From my own recollection, doing permanent adds with short-term bills is not typical. It's just too simple to wait until maturity of these short-term bills to get at the cash. So while today's permanent add operation strikes me as rather odd on several fronts, I have yet to divine the implications.

$5 IndianFed buying short term debt?#284714/11/2000; 19:04:53

I believe the Fed is buying some short term debt to alleviate the inversion problem that has always been the precursur to a recession. The yield inversion is the target, to reduce it. Any thoughts?
beestingMr. Greshem, $5 Indian, Iron Head toe ok-san! O-ki kum-bow-wa.#284724/11/2000; 19:22:51

Mena yoku Nihon-go o-hanashi-mus.(can't spell in either English or Japanese.)
Was in Japan for 5 years many years ago. At that time ALL foriegn imports were tightly controlled by the Japanese Government. Possible the Government set the quotas on everything imported. Some things had very high import tarrifs. American cars were in high demand, but not too many made their way to the Japanese streets because of the Government restrictions.

Has This Changed In Japan?

The reason I ask is, if their are no restrictions on imported Gold Coins,Bars, or Wafers from the Japanese Government......Watch Out for Huge Demand from the Japanese public.

Jewelery may or may not fall into a different catagory.

Did anyone notice any coin shops, or places where Gold bullion may be bought or sold, in recent trips to Japan?

In Kyoto Japan there used to be a famous temple called; "Kin kaku Jin- The Temple of Gold"( If I remember right the roof was real Gold). Visitors had to view it from a distance across a small pond, seems although paper wealth was sometimes flaunted in public, real wealth(GOLD)was only viewed from a safe distance.
I never saw a Gold coin while I was in Japan. Anyone else ever see one over there?

BonedaddyInteresting news (but I'll keep my business right here)#284734/11/2000; 19:35:45

Hey NASDAQ, Maybe GOLD is the market for the next hundred years?

Gold Market

GoldAvenue Attempts to Boost Gold Prices

Buy gold on the Worldwide Web.

J.P. Morgan, the investment bank, and two of the gold sector's leading companies are starting an
internet site selling "all things gold" in an attempt to boost the flagging price.

The site, to be called GoldAvenue, is backed by South Africa's AngloGold, the world's largest gold
miner, and Swiss-based PAMP, the world's largest private gold refiner.

The three planned to sign an agreement today to form a joint venture, which was expected to go
online in the second half of this year. The three companies are putting up $20m in initial capital for
GoldAvenue's first year.

The organisers said the web site would eventually be a one-stop shop for gold investors and
merchants although its initial focus will be on selling gold to retail customers.

Bobby Godsell, AngloGold chief executive, said GoldAvenue was an attempt to find new gold buyers
now that central banks have become sellers.

Market conditions deteriorated to the point last year that European central banks agreed in
September to cap their gold sales during the next five years.

"We have been arguing that if the gold industry is going to take charge of its destiny, it's going to
have to go out and find a customer base directly," Mr Godsell said.

To that end, GoldAvenue will sell everything from gold watches and chains to individual grams of the
metal. For investors, the minimum balance will be only $50.

"We want to be all things gold," said Mehdi Barkhordar, GoldAvenue's chief executive and
managing director of PAMP. "When you think of gold, you think of us."

The organisers are looking to target the US market first, before moving into emerging markets,
where gold remains a favoured investment.

"The problem in western markets is gold investments are inaccessible," Godsell said. "Western
markets, we think, have been underdeveloped."

The organisers hope the site would eventually feature business-to-business gold trading. However,
Mr Barkhordar said the partners had no timetable for such trading and were concentrating on getting
the retail operation started before the Christmas season.

William Winters, head of J.P. Morgan's markets arms, said the bank would provide trading
capabilities and vault services to the joint venture.

GoldAvenue is the latest in a series of internet ventures that J.P. Morgan has announced in recent
months, most of them looking to commercialise existing businesses.

The Financial Times, April 11, 2000

LelandCompliments, Always Appreciated, This one on Kitco, by Goldfever#284744/11/2000; 19:36:21

We also wish to remind our readers of two additional sources,
and resources, for building an understanding of the
importance of precious metals investment markets:
which includes Mr. Michael Kosares' monthly newsletter,
"News & Views", which he still offers, generously,
virtually priceless, yet free.

Mr. Kosares is one of the excellent and dedicated sources
for those considering investments in physical gold
and/or silver coins and bullion.
Located in Denver, Colo., 'USAGOLD' can be reached
at 1-800-869-5115.

OROTown Crier - Japanese investment flows#284754/11/2000; 19:54:05

The Japanese investment flows out of Japan from the Postal Savings system could come to 1/4 of the $1 trillion balance over the next 2 years. The result would be a $30 billion per quarter supply of Yen over that period. One might think this would support the dollar. However, the Yen deficit in the international Yen markets is $174 per year (4Q moving sum for Q3 99), or $44 billion per quarter. Perhaps this flow would encourage fresh borrowing in Japanese Yen that would be effective in ameliorating the Yen deficit. Absent this, the Japanese CB would simply not need to purchase as many dollars per year as it normally does from its exporters, who generate $100-125 billion per year, mostly in dollars. In any case, the Yen deficit would be that much greater once the funds stop flowing out.

I expect that the Yen deficit 2 years hence (in the case of the flows hitting the global dollar markets) will be raised by the amount of Yen due as return on investment, approximately $10 billion of extra Yen demand. Q3 99 saw a $70 billion rise in multinational Bank's external Yen lending (outside Japan), which was only $11 billion above the required add. If this new lending continues a short while longer - say 2 more years, and the investment flows come about, the $0.600 trillion in Yen denominated global debt would mushroom to $1.100 trillion, with some $70-80 billion needed every quarter for making interest payments. Even at 0% interest it is questionable whether Banks would be able to lend at a high enough rate to supply that much each quarter.

Last go-round, the Yen carry trade collapsed at just under $0.7 trillion in Yen debt. Without a substantial trade deficit (as opposed to the current big trade surplus) this new carry trade and its expected brother - investment flows - would self destruct well before the end of the second year. As this possible process starts, the BOJ had still pumped out some $50 billion in Yen and bought treasuries over the past 2 quarters. Meaning that the global Yen deficit could not be met by investment flows and new international lending. This carry trade seems to self destruct before it even got started.

LelandLink....#284764/11/2000; 19:55:11

To Goldfever's entire posting.
Canuck(No Subject)#284774/11/2000; 19:58:02

@ M.K. (from another site)

"We also wish to remind our readers of two additional sources,
and resources, for building an understanding of the
importance of precious metals investment markets:
which includes Mr. Michael Kosares' monthly newsletter,
"News & Views", which he still offers, generously,
virtually priceless, yet free.

Mr. Kosares is one of the excellent and dedicated sources
for those considering investments in physical gold
and/or silver coins and bullion.
Located in Denver, Colo., 'USAGOLD' can be reached
at 1-800-869-5115."

@ Stranger

Thanks for the response my friend.

OROMany replies#284784/11/2000; 20:05:36

Rhody, Welcome - Penny Nichols, flation - IronHead, derivatives

Rhody, Welcome to our discussion - we often discuss your posts from Kitco, so you are part of it anyway. The TOCOM did what we were expecting to see in gold eventually. The physical deficit relative to the paper surplus is on a much greater scale than Pd. I would expect that the breakup of the paper markets would not affect physical trade as much as we may have feared. The TOCOM showed that separating 1/5 of the paper from the physical Pd did not prevent other paper markets or the physical market from continuing routine ops. The TOCOM paper continues to trade though there is no true connection to the underlying item. It is now a passive index trading instrument - like the SP would be with no need to deliver stocks. All trades relating to the TOCOM Pd must be hedged separately. The fact that the longs don't take the TOCOM contracts as substitutes for Pd holdings is that they need the Pd to put in car pollution control equipment etc., and the paper does not hold hydrogen nearly as well as the metal. The other global contracts were priced at a steep discount to the metal till the TOCOM shut down delivery options. Now that delivery is no longer an issue there, the Pd spot and futures are back to normal relationships. Why? Because the shorts and longs are back to functioning as traders on indexes, where the underlying item is "free" of direct commitments to the paper market, and therefore, there is no more of a non-financial commitment involved. The longs that want metal can buy it from supplyers, the "speculators" and hedgers who want the price action can index to the purely financial Pd index rather than have the option of actual metal being delivered. The Pd contracts are now plainly dependent on actual supply and demand for the Pd metal, rather than the supply and demand for fulfillment of odd obligations. Now a holder of Pd can hedge by selling a future on TOCOM without fear of having to deliver the (possibly irreplaceable) metal upon settlement. This led to the growth of hedger supply in the Pd paper market, while eliminating demand from physical Pd consumers who now have only the spot market from which to take delivery. The shorts are no longer in danger of delivery demands but exposed only to "actual" demand.


The US flooding of the Eurodollar markets (dollar currency markets outside the US) comes against a backdrop of severe shortage of dollar assets in the private bank system (there are many more dollar liabilities). Dollar bank liabilities (checking deposit balances etc.) are in great suplus and the surplus grows as the US imports more "stuff" and exports more dollars. The Banks are still squeezed for dollars because the Japanese Central Bank, the BOJ, is sucking out the excess portion of dollars, so is the Chinese CB, and those of Taiwan, Korea, and most major developing countries.

To take in the excess that is not taken by the CBs, the rest seems to be settled in physical gold so as to maintain the dollar's value relative to the "hidden" SDR as well as the public SDR.

The demand for dollars to settle interest payemnts abroad is now, for the first time, below the combined supply from new lending and that from the US BOP deficit. There are many ways to measure this. In the broadest measure, considering bonds as nominal assets (they are definitely not because their value changes with interest rates and they do not necessarilly create fresh currency), though there is excessive dollar supply, and there usually is some excess, there is a far greater excess of Euro. The Yen is at spectacular deficits. The dollar is in deficit since Q3 99 due to the sharp decline of dollar bond and bank debt issuance.

In the narrower bank debt and bank currency markets, there has been an excess of dollars since 1994 if the BOP is considered. However, the dollar liabilities of foreign banks have been very large relative to their assets and are not decreased in full proportion to the US BOP deficit. This is the result of intentional action by the CBs of these nations accumulating of dollars with the obvious purpose of supporting the dollar. The BOJ has been the greatest supporter of the dollar. EU member CBs have been eliminating or stopping fresh support efforts. A few have been reducing dollar balances. Newly industrialized nations have increased dollar reserves substantially, as their dollar income from exports skyrocketed during the Asian crissis. At some point, these dollars will have to run after something tangible.

In any case, foreign banks have been under pressure from the actions of their home CBs to obtain dollar assets. Therefore, the great need for dollars and the support for US imports. Foreign individuals and corporations have accumulated an excess of dollars, however, the banks that hold these cash balances have come to the point of having a deficit of dollar assets and are being kept that way by the CBs overseeing them. As the dollar asset deficit at foreign banks continues to develop and the excess of Euro continues to grow at greater speed than the dollar excess, the dollar will remain under upward pressure.

The Eurodollar rates are particularly revealing in their rise despite US yields coming down recently. These indicate a shortage of dollars in the international banks. The short term interest rates in all developed countries and in most NICs is lower for domestic currency than it is for dollars. This differential in rates is created by the Fed raising rates while the rates offered by local foreign banks drop or stay the same. The Fed is trying to keep the foreign holders of dollar cash balances from using the dollars to buy real goods, particularly American goods. The fact that higher rates can be obtained in the US causes dollars to flow from the foreign investors into US debt markets.

The TED spread between the bond and the Eurodollar also indicates a dollar shortage in the foreign dollar markets. It is now above a full point beyond treasury bonds.

However, as the cash balances of foreigners and foreign CBs accumulate, the US debt position continues to deteriorate. The slowing of the issuance of new dollar denominated foreign debt has the effect of creating a deficit in dollars NOW, while assuring an excess LATER in the future. The treasury buybacks are part of a combined effort with the Fed to keep foreign funds flowing into the US while preventing the creation of long term obligations that would exacerbate the rates of dollar export in the future. Foreign buying of Mortgage debt that had implied guaranties from the US government is only good for the dollar if the gaurantees are withdrawn. Otherwise, when the fight for the dollar is out in the open and the Fed tightens the local money supply, the mortgage debtors will increase their default rate beyond the allready high levels seen today, and the government will be asked to fill in the void as it has done so far. That would not allow the government to avoid asking the Fed to monetize US debt as it grows due to high payments to higher yield mortgage bond holders facing defaults. As a result of not cutting the connection of Fannie and friends to the government, the war for the dollar would be lost earlier.

The noise from Treasury and from Europe about reporting transactions of individuals and corporations involving tax havens and free banking centers to the government is part of a preemtive move against more Americans and foreigners leaving the US with their assets and funds and not parking those in Light Socialist Europe or Mercantilist Japan. The excuse is "money laundering" and "financial crime". If there is any degree of likelyhood for success in this action, the big money will leave the US that much more quickly and will definitely not come back. Treasury's wording of the suggested legislation is such that it would be able to allow "friends" of the administration to exit, and maintain forced copatriation of funds with their owners and expatriation of any who might expatriate their funds. If this is reminiscent of the 100% confiscatory exit taxes that Nazi Germany put on exiting Jews (among others), know that the resemblence is not coincidental and that this is the time to transfer assets abroad and to set up arrangements for life outside the US.

Note on interest rates:
Current real interest rates in the US as calculated with my partially corrected CPI (about 6.5% price inflation y/y) are near 0 across the whole yield spectrum on US government debt, and only 1.5% to 2% in the mortgage and corporate arena. There is no mystery in the "cash is trash" mentality. People are unwilling to hold cash without good interest rate compensation. Any excess cash goes to the purchase of what is perceived to be real assets, corporate stock, real-estate, and of late it has spread to high end furniture, antiques, and high priced cars.
The hidden price inflation of the Klintoons is why M1 is flat and MZM (includes money market accounts) is doing all the growth.


Goldman and Merryl. and the market save of 4/11

It occurred to me tha Goldie and Mary were front running the government before its madcap intervention in the markets. It is very likely that the initial buying that ocurred in the earlier phase at 11:30 to 12:30 yesterday (which was the bulk of the money inflow) was not the attempt by Goldie, Mary and friends to support the market, but to front run the government before it starts a pre-arranged intervention at 13:00 in the gold market, the forex market, and most of all in the stock index futures market.

The reason I see this as more likely, is that despite an enormous incoming money flow, the market continued tanking like tomorrow was cancelled. This means that bids were put in below the market in order to catch "stuff" that is falling. The government intervention is quite the reverse - it puts up bids ABOVE the ask with intent of raising prices, not of making purchases for profit.

During the government intervention period when prices were climbing as if all sellers disappeared, the buying was met by aggressive selling all through the incredible (and totally artificial) price rise.

The illegal, though sacred, Wall Street practice of screwing your stupid clients is completely intact. The most stupid client is the one that does not care for the price he pays, the government is this client, the idiots are the taxpayers. But "someone" was bailing out big time since 1995, and the government was not it. Quite likely, the government was the swing buyer, when money flows turned negative, the government bought. "Someone" though, sold some 2 trillion $$ of stock throughout this period, and of late, this was at a rate of some $400 billion a year, likely to grow to near $500 billion for 2000. Needless to say, these sellers are the ESOP cashers and the "smart money" that needs to exit the markets gradually because it is too big to make a quick move.

Sell to whom?
The government is doing a good business in supporting the markets. Small investors, even ESOP cashers, are putting money into stocks. The large sellers are paying capital gains taxes (when they have to), and the government gets the 32-36% income tax on the ESOP cash outs. It stands to reason that the government would support this process (supporting PPT actions) as long as it results in greater payouts than were possible with straight cash wage payments.

Fortunately for the markets, some ESOP cash-out money flows back into the markets into IRAs and 401ks. The big chunks, though, might be going abroad to seek shelter, or move into Valley realestate and German sportscars.


Effects of PPT, stock options and the real interest rate

The PPT action focuses on buying index futures. An interesting side effect of this is the resultant outperformance of the large cap indexes relative to the rest of the market. Looking at the ND 100 relative to the Nasdaq composite, and the SP100 and SP 500 relative to the total market index, we can see when these interventions occur, when they are traded out, and reach some conclusion as to what portion of incoming funds is attributable to stock index purchases.

Furthermore, the index buying puts disproportionate favor on the stocks that have low floats - those that have a small number of shares trading on the markets relative to the market capitalization. So the goal of every CFO (Chief Financial Officer) is to get his company into one or more of the sacred cap weighted indexes, or to maintain membership. Once the stock is a candidate for introduction into an index - particularly for internet and other young tech companies, the stock enjoys government sponsored support during market sell offs and momentum shopping during bull moves. As the stock appreciates and moves up into more indexes, particularly the SP500 and SP100 as well as the NDX, increasing numbers of funds mimicking the indexes are forced to buy the stock, bidding it up further. Having sponsorship from Fidelity, TC/AC or Janus helps as well.

As time goes on, the inclusion in the bigger stock indices increases the number of shares the company can issue to its management and top talent, thus making the company's apparent profitability greater than that of its competition outside the indices. "Winner takes all" is reinforced by this process.

Companies that continue being favored by the markets because of stock buybacks are borrowing 80% of that money and are redeeming a big chunk of the $400-440 billion in ESOPs for 1999. One third of this money is sucked by the Federal government and is responsible for the whole of the reported budget surplus. Without this, the Federal government would be so deeply in the red that we would have thrown Klintoon out of office at his second try in 1996 and the composition of congress would have been very different, as would have been the issues of the current election..
I will have to refrain from posting more long posts because of the upcoming tax deadline and some business I need to take care of. The above are more partial, incomplete posts that I did not have time to finish. Will be back when I can.

Canuck(No Subject)#284794/11/2000; 20:09:46

Sorry for 'doubling' up on Leland's post. Must of been surfing at the same time.
SteveHjust in case someone missed what ORO said...#284804/11/2000; 20:26:33

Oro said, "...As time goes on, the inclusion in the bigger stock indices increases the number of shares the company can issue to its management and top talent, thus making the company's apparent profitability greater than that of its competition outside the indices. "Winner takes all" is reinforced by this process.

"Companies that continue being favored by the markets because of stock buybacks are borrowing 80% of that money and are redeeming a big chunk of the $400-440 billion in ESOPs for 1999. One third of this money is sucked by the Federal government and is responsible for the whole of the reported budget surplus. Without this, the Federal government would be so deeply in the red that we would have thrown Klintoon out of office at his second try in 1996 and the composition of congress would have been very different, as would have been the issues of the current election..[..]"

He is saying that the budget surplus is a direct result of ESOPs and stock other words a tax loophole. OUR WHOLE TAX SURPLUS IS DUE TO A TAX LOOPHOLE!!!!

(or am I just missing something here?)

beestingSouth Africa's annual Gold production expected to fall below 400 tonnes.#284814/11/2000; 20:57:49

Mr. Chris Thompson CEO of Gold Feilds Ltd. Says: South Africa's market share of world Gold production has declined to about 20 percent. Click URL for full news release.

Comment: If South Africa's yearly Gold production is now under 400 tonnes, and they're still the worlds number one producer of Gold,.....How much is the worlds second largest producer, The United States, producing in a year???

In recent posts right here on USAGOLD from Nov. 1999(105 tonnes exported to Japan per Sir T.C.) till now Apr.2000, if my memory is correct, the U.S.has already exported over 250 tonnes since Nov 1999. Another 61 tonnes was minted and sold in U.S. Gold coins in 1999. The reported figures are showing U.S. projected Gold sales in excess of 400 tonnes per year. If the U.S. is second in world Gold production...WHERE IS THIS GOLD COMING FROM????

Sir TownCrier do you have the actual figures on U.S. annual Gold production?

I've searched the World Gold Council site and other various sites with out success!

Again, if U.S.annual Gold sales are exceeding annual Gold Mining production---Where is the Gold coming from the U.S. is selling annually???...beesting.

OROSteveH - Tax loophole#284824/11/2000; 21:16:20

You got it right, but it is not exactly a loophole.

The idea must have been to reduce the cost of management and talent and exclude some of their income from odd payroll taxes - income that would otherwise have shown up on corporate balance sheets as a cost to the corporation, frightening off investors allarmed by the cash flow. The "stock flow", being a new phenomenon (outside of bottomless convertible shares), was easy to disguise, and eluded thousands of analysts.

The alternative was to lose every new industry to foreigners in Asia because of the high cost of talent in the US and the appeal of alternative sites outside the US (ah... the breeze on the Caribean beach) for corporate headquarters.

Once it got out of hand, the practice became too big for undoing and all that remained for government was to figure out how to make use of it. Well, they did make use of it and the return on ESOPs has become the largest component of corporate profits and a significant fraction of cash flows - up to 20% at some companies.

It's just one part of the illusion.

Imaginary productivity, imaginary production, imaginary disinflation, imaginary profits, imaginary taxes, imaginary investment methods.

The only real things are the imports and the consumption of them.

Automated internet based inventory and contract management methods still have a little bit left in cost reduction - 5-10% by the end of 2003 - but once that is in the system, the Chen Woods story is finished because local distribution and retailing costs will come down to meet costs of foreign imports, and importation will be back to its original significance in measured GDP - a negative.

TownCrierSir $5 Indian and others...thoughts on yield inversion#284834/11/2000; 21:21:37

I am no authority on this matter, so dismiss this thought as it might seem appropriate to do so.

I don't see the Fed purchase of these short-terms (T-bills) as having any strong effective connection to an official desire (be it actual or imagined) to ameliorate the Treasury yield inversion. Particularly, as I see it, with the Fed's target rate for the trading of fed funds at 6% (and poised to be raised yet higher), the Fed would be acting at cross purposes to itself in dealing with the yield inversion through an operation that would support the short-term prices...lowering the effective interest rate. In short, I see no relation between today's method for a permanent add of funds...unless, of course, it was done in such a manner as to avoid aggravating the yield inversion by putting more buying pressure on the long terms.

Ultimately, as I suggested yesterday, there seems to be little to be gained evaluating these prevailing table manners...because the feast has been left to the dogs. Confused instincts of unsophisticated players acting in an unnatural environment.

TownCrierSir beesting...#284844/11/2000; 21:33:13

Excellent memory! But one correction to your recollection is necessary...not all of that November gold went to Japan. They were exports in all points away from U.S. shores, nothing more specific. It was yet another post wherin I cited the rising Japanese gold imports.

I shall send my minions to the archives in search of the first post to help answer your question on U.S. gold production versus our current exports.

Galearis@bee sting: US gold production averages.....#284854/11/2000; 21:36:43

350 tonnes per year. I can't recall the source. Nevetheless, it is exporting more than it produces.


TownCrierMore for Sir beesting on U.S. production versus gold exports#284864/11/2000; 21:41:40

Excerpts from TownCrier (3/23/2000; 21:07:26MDT - Msg ID:27386):
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
...I'm glad you noticed the startling trade figures I posted two days ago (March 21st, a.m.) focusing on the trend of huge gold exports from the U.S. It surprises me that this didn't raise more eyebrows or comments among our group here. Worth repeating is that the gold that moves into foreign ownership but that is maintained in U.S. storage does not get counted among these export figures.

...[I]n providing my speculation as to the source of this gold. Here it is...but before I continue further, here is a brief review of the figures:
TownCrier (03/21/00; 08:50:39MDT - Msg ID:27209)
...We created quite a stir in January when we revealed that the latest release of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicated a rocketing level of gold exports from the U.S., with November's gold exports (that level passing through customs, not including any transfer of ownership that stays within the vaults of the Federal Reserve on behalf of the foreign owner) leaping above October's $400 million export level to top $1 billion. In December, that number settled back to the still impressive level of $783 million, while in January gold exports continued to tip the scales at $730 million.
To assist you with your own quick calculations to determine the significance of these levels, gold at current prices is about $10 per gram...with one million grams per tonne you have $10 million per tonne. That gives you 22.5 tonnes exported in January of last year pointing toward a 270 tonne annual pace...but recall that November alone grew by 100 tonnes. Meanwhile in modern times, this January's export of 73 tonnes puts us on an annual pace of 876 tonnes. See a trend? Are you getting your share of gold even as the rest of the world is laying claim to theirs?

Let me begin with the additional perspective-builder that according to the Gold Fields Mineral Services Gold Survey 1999 (Update 2), the U.S. produced 354 tonnes of new gold from our sovereign soil in 1999.

So, on an annual export pace of approximately 876 tonnes judging from January's "slackened" export level, compared to our annual production rate of 354 tonnes, you can see that this gold is more than double the amount that our mining companies might be providing in the form of gold loan payments and outright sales channeled through the likes of the LBMA member banks. What is making up the bulk of the shortfall beyond the first order supply? We can probably take a cue from Michael's own operation at Centennial where he has agents seeking and negotiating for the caches of Old World treasures. As private holders, for whatever reason, reach a state of mind that they would prefer to exchange their hard assets for national currencies, this gold enters the export stream alongside new production.

With our current equities markets beguiling and captivating masses of sophisticated and unsophisticated investors alike, is it any wonder that tonnes of ounces are trickling out of the woodwork to fill this overseas demand? After all, there is only 32,151 troy ounces in a tonne. Create enough disinterest among individuals to give up their few ounces of near-irreplacible metal for a few hundred dollars of instant cash, and you can see that the difference can be perhaps be satisfied...for a while. At these rates [that is to say, at this pace], it won't last long...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

beesting, I hope this helps.

$5 IndianJapanese Gold Buying, let us count the ways#284874/11/2000; 21:43:01

I want to see some of those middlemen dealers buying on the Hong Kong exchange and if I don't see it then all this Asia-buying is a latter event. If you want a monitoring of Japanese gold buying you might want to check metal dealers in Hawaii. Too many middlemen in Japan tagging on premiums for the thrifty shoppers that they are to be so fooled. No, the mall shopping trips to Minnesota and vacations to Hawaii......that is where you'll see the buying. Like cameras or laptops or anything else, it's always cheaper outside of Japan. When I was there I had a large stack of old currency notes I was trying to sell and the coin shop guy looked like he hadn't seen a customer in months. People were into stairing out into space as to being "employed". 7 teenagers working at a soba noodle shop with no customers. One construction worker on the machine wearing white gloves, one in the hole digging, two up above looking down, nobody site.......major recession in full swing, 45RPM scenario. I think the banks just take it all on the chin, they don't "shake down" their customers and force liquidations. No one making money and no one out crying in the streets. Bad times are pileup debt times for everyone. Nobody looked worried about the slow economy in 94.

So you heard it from the ORO, only index stuff is getting full gubermint support. That word "long" sounds so scarey right about now if not in conjunction with "gold". Long gold, now that's ok.

OROGore on EU - California Dreaming...#284884/11/2000; 21:45:49

Bloomie has this one.

"Gore...the euro, ... won't pose a threat to the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the international economy until the 11 nations joined in a common fiscal policy..."

Well, he obviously does not understand what is before him.

Since the Euro currency is not related to the indebtedness of the EU member nations, fiscal policy has nothing to do with it since the ECB does not set rates for (or against) the governments. Contrary to his observation, the biggest plus is that the Single currency, capital mobility, and (theoretical) labor mobility forces each country to compete with the other in attracting capital with low tax rates, better educated labor and easier regulatory burdens. They have little time to wait till the governments are forced to act.

I await a French Hi-Tech colony in Southern Ireland.

Gandalf the WhiteStrange BID and ASK prices on afterhours COMEX !#284894/11/2000; 22:26:28

Battendown the hatches !
THERE she blows.

TownCrierSir ORO (Msg ID:28488)#284904/11/2000; 22:31:14

Bingo. And in regard to capital/labor mobility between member nations, the dictum of Maastricht was to tear down barriers. Maastricht also contained additional elements meant to address and smooth potential social issues associated with this expectation of freer, liberal movement of individuals and their wealth among these various member nations.
JourneymanJapanese gold import tariffs @MANY#284914/11/2000; 22:31:42

About 15 years ago, a friend of mine used to smuggle diamonds into Japan. It was very lucrative because the import tariffs were extremely high, but he could only do this because he had an inside contact.

About ten years ago, another younger friend was smuggling in relatively small amounts of cosmetics to Japan, which helped pay for his air tickets there. I concluded from this that the overall import tariffs must be ridiculously high. That was true.

My question now is, if import tariffs on diamonds were high 15 years ago, were gold import tariffs? Are they still?


beestingSirs Galearis #28485 and TownCrier #28486.#284924/11/2000; 22:54:18

Thank you both for the quick responses.
So, 354 tonnes is the official U.S.annual Gold production figure.It looks like a huge amount of U.S. Gold is leaving our shores.

Next question: Anyone know what U.S. domestic Gold consumption is???(61 tonnes of Gold Eagles in 1999)

A lot of Gold jewlery is imported from Italy and Thialand,but I would wager U.S. domestic Gold consumption added to Gold exports far exceeds the 354 tonnes officially produced from U.S. mines.
It seems like there has to be a shortage of Gold soon but all of us here have been waiting for supplies to run low for a long time.
I just can't understand why more people with excess paper wealth don't convert some paper into untaxed long term Gold ownership with a potential for long term appreciation....beesting.

THCTo Oro re Tocom Pd#2849304/11/00; 23:43:49

Hi Oro!

As always, I love your work.

A quick note regarding Tocom Pd:

The trading volume used to be close to that of Pt.....

Now the Pd trading volume is only 1% of that of Pt......clearly, it is not business as usually for the Tocom Pd contract......for now, it is DEAD.



THCagbull - WL Halves#2849404/11/00; 23:57:50


I have just started accumulating.....and the market is we need to tread lightly......but I think that if you go to an auction site and you bid slightly higher than what dealers pay, you should not have a problem buying at a good price.


THC$5 Indian - Quick Lesson in Backwardation #2849504/12/00; 00:25:13

Hi $5 Indian!!!!!

I have been studying/trading Japanese futures for the past couple years, and I have found that backwardation is a key concept that is worth studying. I watch for it EVERY DAY.

What is it?

Look at Tocom platinum. A gram of Platinum in Feb. 2001 is 250 yen cheaper than a gram in April 2000. That is Big Time backwardation! It means that traders are thinking: "we want the product, and we want it NOW. NOT in the future." Spot demand is "pulling" the futures.

Now look at Tocom rubber....rubber now is cheaper than rubber in the future. Traders "might want the product eventually, but not now." This is called "contango".....

You can check the US futures here:

You will see that oil and gasoline are in backwardation......people want it and silver are in one is hurrying to buy it (at least not through the futures markets).



OROTHC - Pd#2849604/12/00; 01:55:33

I did not check TOCOM volumes, but the COMEX etc. were functioning as usual but without the severe backwardation of the last few years. The Paladium debt was turned into a pure paper bet. That TOCOM trading in Pd ceased is a different issue.

What are catalyst producers doing to obtain Pd?

As for Japan, what is your take on the upcoming departure of funds from the Postal savings system? Who will buy the JGBs now that the postal funds are exiting the confines of that limited dsvings?

By the way, I liked some of your posts at other boards.


OROCurrency supply and demand balances in the international banking system#2849704/12/00; 02:13:01

The charts at this URL are a "dump" of data I've been studying for the past month or so.

I will not take the time to explain. Just to say that the currency is in excess when it is significantly above 0, and that it is in a deficit when it is below 0. These balances do not contain the trade deficits and investment flows because they are static snapshots of the banking system which correspond to the dynamics of financial flows.

Cash balance preferences are not necessarilly reflected in these charts.

Solely currency creation (borrowing) is considered on the supply side and interest payment and rollover demand is considered on the other side.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Ashanti reports loss after tumultuous year#2849804/12/00; 02:45:31

LONDON (Reuters) - Ghanaian mining company Ashanti Goldfields Co has reported a loss for 1999 after exceptional charges following a tumultuous year in which it came close to collapse due to huge derivative losses.

Africa's third biggest gold producer sank to a loss of $183.9 million (116 million pounds) in 1999 from a profit of $40.7 million. Earnings before exceptionals were $66.1 million from $73.9 million.

The exceptional charges of $250 million included a $171.1 million write-down of fixed assets at the Obuasi mine, mainly arising from the planned closure of surface mining.

The company is paying no dividend.

THCHi Oro!#2849904/12/00; 02:46:55

"What are catalyst producers doing to obtain Pd?"

I think that Tocom was always a minor channel for actual Pd was probably mostly used for hedging.....and occaissional delivery.

I would guess that they have some contracts with producers......and that they are also in a bit of a bind while they wait for the Russian metal.

This is all speculation....but I think the PGM crisis is far from over, unless other autocatalysts are used.

"As for Japan, what is your take on the upcoming departure of funds from the Postal savings system?"

I really don't know how much will actually leave....interest rates are negligible everywhere in Japan...would you get excited about moving from 0.25% to 0.29% or whatever the differential is?

Some will go to stocks......some to real estate....some to Nasdaq tulips.....

Many Japanese cos pay dividends that are higher than bank interest rates.

"Who will buy the JGBs now that the postal funds are exiting the confines of that limited dsvings?"

I'm not sure, but they can always get the BOJ to buy them, right? I think they may become more bold in taking inflationary measures, as prices are still very low here.

We shall see!!!!


By the way, I liked some of your posts at other boards.

Black BladeMorning news, BTW Au down -$0.60 in UK.#285004/12/2000; 5:46:43

Source: Bridge news

S Africa's AngloGold details e-commerce strategy

Johannesburg--Apr 11--South African gold producer AngloGold is adamant that a sound business utilizing Internet technology will lay the foundation for e-commerce success--not the other way around. Anglogold, financial services group J.P. Morgan and Swiss refining and manufacturing company PAMP (Produits
Artistiques de Metaux Precieux) on Tuesday launched GoldAvenue, an e-business venture. (Story .18196)

Black Blade: Ya know that this has to piss-off Barrick! They were even against the proposed milleneum coin - go figure!

Analyst says fall in Australian dollar may boost gold output

Perth--Apr 12--Australia's gold production could rise if new gold projects awaiting development are helped in getting the go-ahead by the recent decline in the Australian dollar, according to Sandra Close, analyst at mining consulting group Surbiton Associates. (Story .10366)

Black Blade: Yeah, more gold projects, more short-selling, dig yourselves into a deeper hole mates! There is a price to pay ya know.

Black BladeFrom WSJ commodities section.#285014/12/2000; 5:59:06

This is what happens when metals analysts are recruited out of High School!

From Wall Street Journal commodities section, April 6, 2000

May futures fell 2.8 cents to $5.137 per ounce yesterday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, but maintained most of Tuesday's price gains. "Silver also benefited from the equity markets losses, but unlike gold, it will continue to look good as an alternate investment because of the lack of a central bank threat," said Dave Meger, a senior metals analyst at Chicago-based Alaron Trading (HUH!)

Black Blade: Should we let him in on the secret that the CB's stopped selling and leasing Au last year? What a bone-head!

SteveHMight we not construe the new trend to internet gold sales...#285024/12/2000; 6:25:08

as a replacement for COMEX and LBMA? Perhaps these companies wanting to commence said e-commerce sites are distrustful or apprehensive of the commodity exchanges' abilities to be exchanges and feel they must provide their own outlets that will by-pass traditional gold and silver exchanges. Hmm?
Black BladeSteveH#285034/12/2000; 6:51:34

My thoughts exactly! Now if some NA producers buy the assets of bankrupt Handy and Harman, well then......, the end of Comex as we know it, and who cares if they default like TOCOM did with Pd, etc. etc. Lots of possibilities.
USAGOLDA Little Philosophy for a Quiet Wednesday Morning#285044/12/2000; 9:12:57

4/12/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT



Gold was down on the COMEX in the early going as is usually the case in the
trading sessions before options expiration day (Friday). There was little in
the way of news to explain the downturn other than a sense that the financial
institutions short the options market have little interest in allowing call
options to graduate to the profit side of the ledger before expiry, if there
is any way at all it can be prevented. One wonders why anyone would ever buy
a call option, since the number of instances where one could have sold that
option at a profit are few and far between. The odds against the call option
buyer are slim in the extreme, and when they do move in the bull's favor
something comes up to undermine the very structure of the market as occurred
recently with palladium on the TOCOM. Don't bet against the same happening
with gold on your favorite exchange at some point in the future.

We continue to counsel individuals to purchase the physical metal, keep it
nearby and avoid the commodities and options markets at all costs for obvious
reasons. We do not say this because we are in the physical gold business; we
remain in the physical gold business because we have believed this for a long
time. When you study the history of gold in the 20th Century, one cannot walk
away from such an investigation without the clear knowledge that certain
highly centralized governments married to fiat money, government deficit
financing and the high tax rates required to support it are also wed to the
proposition that gold must never be viewed by the people as a valid
alternative to paper assets. Why? Because the moment the system falters, the
public would flock to yellow metal making things considerably worse for the
proponents of big central governments, their attendant central banks,and
socialist political parties. Hence the incredible machinations to hold gold
through most of the second half of the 20th Century (and exercise in
futility) and the relentless struggle against gold in the mainstream press
and through the nation's stock brokerage firms who obviously have their own
reasons for keeping people away from gold..

This state of affairs makes it nearly impossible to profit from short
instruments like futures' contracts, options and gold loans played from the
long side. As an owner of the physical metal, instead of pressing you as an
enemy, time becomes your ally. There will come a time when gold will win the
war against fiat money and rise for a protracted period. That will come, as
it did in the 1970s, as a revolutionary event involving a devaluation of the
dollar (whether that be formal or informal is another subject) Even then,
gold will not be viewed by most of its owners and advocates as a successful
investment, but more as a defense against the system which ultimately
destroyed the value of the currency. The seeds for such an event have already
been planted, otherwise those opposed to gold would not find it necessary to
attempt controlling its price. After all, controls to keep it in place imply
that its proclivity is to go up.

Consider this little essay on a quiet Wednesday in mid April as a summation
of gold's true fundamentals without numbers -- a bit of bed-rock philosophy
to act as a guiding light. The problem with socialist manipulations of the
currency and markets are that they rely heavily on human intuition and
intelligence and as a result prone to, no, destined for, error. That is why
the natural philosophers of the 18th Century who gave us our Constitution and
free market economy believed in things like the natural rights of man (life,
liberty and the pursuit of happiness), a natural economy (subject to cycles
and the profit motive -- the invisible hand), and a life in sync with the
rhythms of nature (hence the term natural philosopher -- Locke, Smith,
Jefferson, Franklin et al). Gold is more closely allied with that view of
life than the socialists view of control from the center and re-apportionment
of wealth through its auspices. And that's why those who advance big
government hate gold and those who advance gold hate big government.

In short, own gold as a reasonable percentage of your assets, sit back and
watch the show.

That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here tomorrow.

If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as
well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly
newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary
& Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized
as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of
the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade.

Just click here on link above and make the appropriate entries.

RossLMicrosoft#285054/12/2000; 9:21:13

Yesterday the Microsoft stock price fell through the 85 strike and this morning it has fallen through the 80 strike. How long before all those puts Microsoft has written come back to haunt???
YGMFWIW.........#285064/12/2000; 9:23:28

Gold Market

No Capital for Gold Industry

World's gold available for $40 billion.

Continued rationalisation was essential for the gold industry to compete for investor funds in global markets, the Australian Gold Conference was told yesterday.

The head of one of the world's top five goldmining companies, Mr Ron Cambre of Newmont Mining, admitted yesterday that "gold is simply not relevant to most investors" in today's technology-driven equities market.

He said the four biggest North American gold companies had a combined market capitalisation of 0.14 per cent of the S&P 500 index.

"The capital markets are telling us that size matters," Mr Cambre said. "North American gold funds today hold only $US2 billion [$3.3 billion] in assets as investors have withdrawn funds to invest elsewhere.

"Future investors in gold shares must come from the generalists who judge us not against our relative performance within the industry, but against the outlook for all investments, including the world that few of us understand.

"Considering that the Fidelity Magellan Fund and Vanguard's Equity Index Fund are each managing $US100 billion in assets, the threshold size for consideration by many portfolio managers today is a market cap of $US5 billion to $US10 billion."

Mr Cambre said the market capitalisation of the global gold industry was less than $US40 billion, and only nine companies had a market capitalisation of more than $US1 billion.

He said companies should also give thought to the re-emergence of the major mining houses of the past, and there was good logic to consider "multi-metallic" investments in the future.

Mr Cambre said that despite hedging, no major North American producer had been consistently profitable in the past 10 years.

"Looking only at earnings from operations, the average return on shareholders' equity for the top producers declined from 13 per cent in 1987 to zero last year. The average return for S&P industrials is above 20 per cent," he said.

"Generating adequate shareholder returns must be the industry's number one challenge in the years ahead.

"We must stop believing that because we are gold producers we can ignore the cost of capital.

"Projects that do not have a high probability of returning solid double-digit returns at today's gold price cannot be justified."

Mr Cambre's views on rationalisation were echoed by Delta Gold managing director Terry Burgess.

"For the industry to survive in the lowering grade and lowering margin environment there will be an ever-increasing push for mergers and acquisitions to take place between companies," Mr Burgess said.

"Adding value must be the reason for this as growth for growth's sake can only provide a short-term warmth followed by a hollow feeling - not unlike the feeling that Internet stock investors will experience when they realise that revenue without profit is not a driver."

Mr Burgess said the outlook for the Australian gold industry was robust even in the face of the low gold price.

"Hedging will still provide the confidence and price outcomes that will allow projects to go forward, although vigilant treasury management and controls will be of paramount importance," he said.

"The reduction in exploration expenditure will not materially impact the output of Australian gold mining industry for another three years or so, due to long lead times between discovery and first production.

"However, like a hand water pump, once the water flow stops, it will take an appreciable period of pumping, with no apparent results, before the water starts flowing again."

The West Australian, April 12, 2000

FarfelGOLD/SILVER Launch Pad Erected Finally Today????#285074/12/2000; 9:32:05

Falling NASDAQ

Falling DOW

Falling BONDS



Is a precious metals moonshot now at hand?



Penny NicholsTHANK YOU ORO!#285084/12/2000; 9:40:13

I really appreciate the time you took to answer my question about inflation so thoroughly. We are all very fortunate at this Forum to have such excellent truthful knowledge available to us. Where else could we getit? THANK YOU!
HenriBrave New World#285094/12/2000; 10:05:39

It occurs to me reading the excellant postings of the last 12 hrs on Japanese Economics, US Economics, Euro economics and finally International economics,that we are by engaging in international commerce, in effect entering into a competition for who uses our currency and for what. In such a competitive environment we offer up future taxpayer revenue in the form of ever higher Bond interest rates in exchange for it having bragging rights on the streets of the world for being THE currency to hold to defend your own from financial assault. Paradoxically we also have the largest trade deficit in the world. We (US) are also the worlds largest debtor nation. Our largest export? Our own indebtedness and inflation.

The Japanese are seemingly caught in an opposite, but nonetheless dangerous engagement of being a very large international creditor perhaps the worlds largest and has paradoxically a very large trade surplus. Could they be exporting their own deflation?

I can see that in the final balance, the US is paying the international markets to use the dollar for settlements.

This is not unlike the Japanese reducing the borrowing rates for the Yen to sub-riduculous levels of 0.5%. Perhaps I am just a dumb hick from PA but it looks to me like we are in the same game. Japan will have to match our effective rate of losses in order to stimulate their domestic economy. By that I mean negative interest rates. They will have to pay someone to take and use their Yen just as we are paying for the Markets to use our dollars.

Are we not in effect paying negative interest rates to foreigners to use our currency? Why don't we just cut through all this bogus BS a call a spade a spade. If the US were to just say to h*ll with all you spread and derivative traders we're going real-time and up-front with our dealings and just pay people directly to use our currency. What would happen? The game would be over sooner that's for sure. The Euro which afterall was developed to fill the void would suddenly find itself pulled into the big poker bluff game with insufficient preparation to meet the calls and would have to fold.

Isn't that what has really been happening for the last 10 years? A big bluff. Everyone playing the game knows deep down inside the back rooms that there can be no substance behind borrowings of taxpayer goodwill that far into the future and that far into the hole. G10 was assembled on an emergency basis to defer the inevitable great reckoning?

The big boys have gold to play with when nobody wants to play with bullsh*t chips anymore. Somebody or everybody has been sliding extra chips into the game from their chip factories without putting up the gold to buy them from the "official" chip banker. Worse, there seems to be a big argument going on as to which player was supposed to be or is the chip banker who is holding everyones real cash. Here's a dumb question. Just where is all the real money?

John DoeHouse proposes allowing Fed to eliminate reserves entirely#285104/12/2000; 10:07:36

Buried within amendments to H.R. 4067, "The Business Checking Modernization Act", ostensibly for the purpose of allowing banks to pay interest on demand (reserve) deposits, Congress grants Federal Reserve the option of removing reserve requirements.

especially see final paragraph:

"The Federal Reserve Act requires banks to hold 3% in reserves against the first $ 25 million the bank has in transactions accounts and between 8% and 14% against the amount above that threshold as determined by the Fed.. Today, the $25 million threshold level has been adjusted for inflation to $44.3 million and the ratio on the amount above that threshold level is 10%. The amendment eliminates the minimum statutory ratios of 3% and 8% for reserves LEAVING THE FEDERAL RESERVE WITH THE ABILITY TO NOT REQUIRE RESERVES (emphasis mine). The Federal Reserve Act specifically provides that reserves are to maintained solely for the purpose of implementing monetary policy."

So much for monetary policy -- expansion only from here on out???

HenriOz revisited#285114/12/2000; 10:24:58

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! For I am waxed not only the Great and Powerful Oz of the dominion elevated above and beyond the rainbows above Kansas (where good dreams get out of hand quickly), but now claim to be Oz supreme over the rainbows of all lands.

Apologies to the author of "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz" which was, as I understand it, itself a parody on the financial shenanigans of the day in the US.

I think I woke up too early. I'm back in Kansas and the cyclone is still approaching...there will be no happy ending this time. I'm headed for the storm cellar with what real money I can scrape up.

But the sun will rise again on a new day following the storm, overlooking the vast destruction and someone will say. Well, it looks like there's some work to be done around here.

And the cycle will begin anew. Those with the good sense to have built a storm cellar and the good sense to hide in it and not chase "Toto", will come out and start cleaning up the mess.

FarfelEvolution of a GOLD Bull...slow but steady.#285124/12/2000; 10:26:51

As I posted some time ago, in order for a gold bull to develop, it is imperative that "They" (the market gurus of the current NASDAQ and DOW bull) be invalidated.

That is now occurring.

"They" said the NASDAQ drop was only a correction.

In fact, it is now officially a bear market.

"They" said that the flight to quality would be into DOW stocks.

In fact, the normal pattern is for the extremely overvalued DOW to deteriorate at the end of the day along with the super-overvalued NASDAQ.

"They" said gold would plummet in advance of the Swiss gold sales.

But gold appears to be steady, forming a solid base, and has already priced the Swiss gold sales into the current price.

That is how market psychology changes. The gurus must be invalidated, replaced by new masters of the Universe.

It is a very slow process yet appears to be happening.



KnallgoldSwiss Gold#285134/12/2000; 10:37:47

According to todays newspaper, the SNB will start
selling Gold at the beginning of May.They will then also announce the details.

The time to raise the signatures for the referendum ends at 20.April, the legislation will be set into force by the governement probably per 1.May.It will also allow the SNB to revalue our Gold.

Some interesting NUMBERS are also published:

· For 1999 there are 2274,5 t of bars and coins in the books with a value of 10,5 billion sFr.,but the actual value is 34 billions.

· ADDITIONALLY, there is 315,7 t of leased Gold with a book value of 1,5 billions (actual 4,7 billions).(I thought leasing was limited to 160t?).

· Gives the known number of 2590,2 t.

· 1300t will not be used anymore for currency and monetarian policy.

· the SNB has to use their quote (WA) for 2000.?!Has anyone figured out how much is left of the 400t?

As you know, the swiss Gold is the largest part of the sales in the WA.So there is a special focus on how the SNB will proceed.June Gold per Don_L. wont be an up month 100% sure,judging by history,but has a ceiling of 400.(?).IT LOOKS LIKE A BIG SURPRISE IS INEVITABLE.

Switzerland is a neutral country, so anything indicating a reduced support for the $ would be a major developement.(We might have been neutral but were always "leaning" to the right side).We'll see...


WAC (Wide Awake Club)Tech stocks keep falling#285144/12/2000; 11:03:21

Some observers believe the market will rally later on Wednesday - others predict that the Nasdaq will sink further, eventually settling at about 3,650 points.

The rout continues to centre on "new economy" tech shares, with much of the money fleeing such sectors being put into old favourites on the Dow Jones index

"The good news is that there seems to be a rotation out of technology into the more traditional 'old economy' sectors. The money is not necessarily flowing out of the equities market," said Peter Coolidge, senior equity trader at Brean Murray.

EconoclastJohn Doe's Post#285154/12/2000; 11:07:01

I am still coming to grips with the idea of fiat reserves for fractional reserve banking.
This is the biggest thing since the Federal Reserve Act.
I will research this and then DEMAND explanations from my congressmen on their positions.
I suggest everyone do the same!

Can you say "monopoly money"?

TownCrierThe Week in Gold has been commentary courtesy of the World Gold Council#285164/12/2000; 11:26:29

Here is a sample:
(April 3, - April 7, 2000)

$5 IndianTHC#285174/12/2000; 12:05:07

Thankyou very much for the lesson on backwardation. I first thought that "contango" was the dance the traders did in the office when they finally made alot of money on their futures options. If it could be then we all might be doing the contango after this next short covering panic.

So I guess as we approach this inflection point where we are midway between contango and backwardation we get evenness in the prices between now and out in the future. Very, very cool. Thankyou THC.


The Digital Camera Silver Usage Bypass Theory:

Third world per capita incomes rise slowly. Nearly every household with or without electricity, has the financial resources to buy and use a 35mm camera. Photography buffs are happy with their adjustment features on their Minoltas. They are in control with all the settings adjustments. So these deluxe 35mm cameras are not going to be displaced anytime soon. Digital cameras are only useful if the user has a quality PC. A quality PC is far beyond the economic resources of the average third-worldian. Now the ones who do own a quality PC, what type of printer do they own? ONLY a 1440 dpi quality printer can reproduce a digital photo with near resemblance to the 35mm film quality. Great, so we finally have the folks who have both the digital camera, the high quality PC, the high quality 1440 dpi printer, and the picture still looks like blurred newsprint because they refused to buy the super-expensive high-gloss paper. I'm talking about "photo-functional weedout". The people skip one important step and there the camera sits, unable to compete with the $6 throwaway 35mm camera from Kodak. Most people cannot program a VCR. AOL's success relies solely on the basis of configuration fears. People are still computer tech illiterate. I didn't say they couldn't read. I said they fear software configuration having skipped past DOS and basic computer understandings. I'm saying the silver nitrates used in photo processing turns silver into a disposable strategic metal. Photos thrown in shoeboxes are one step closer to the landfill. One of the first items purchased by a low per dapita worker is a camera. Silver usage is not going down because of the digital camera. Digital cameras are in the fad stage. They will find a niche market within highly tech literate countries eventually. But simplicity is quickly becoming a virtue when it comes to computer crap. Amipro running in DOS with high ram is still faster than the latest in 98, and did you ever relearn all the features you used to use? So the disposable camera wins. Warren Buffet wouldn't be in silver if this wasn't true. They only people who fear digital camera usage are the people who have to explain for hours to techy illiterates how to use them. Those manuals written by mainland Chinese really take the prize too. Wanderful prepositions and scattered verb placement........your camera new........enjoy!!!

IronHeadOro RE: 4-11 # 28478 Middle Class Welfare and The Phase-Lock-Loop#285184/12/2000; 12:05:24

Sir Oro- Really enjoyed yesterdays remarks on Da Boyz. You stated something that I've been increasingly aware (wary) of regarding who foots the bill when the scamsters start a joint effort PPT move to counter market gravity. Somebody is buying on the cheap and someone is buying on the high, setting the whole cycle to renew again the next day, (or mini-crash day, which seems almost daily)

So, Uncle Friendly backends Da Boyz at our (those of us not in Wall Street pinstripes) expense, in an ongoing bilking of funds from the poor little players who think the sun sets on CNBC.

So the loop continues with Uncle getting his tax incentives, while the Company Team covers all bases with ESOP's fable.

Yup, looks like middle class welfare to me- maybe not so middle class?

Thanks a tonne again, for your energy and consideration.


IronHeadbeesting RE: 4-11 your #28472#285194/12/2000; 12:59:42

Sir beesting- Was hoping other sources might come in to tell of the landscape in Japan at the physical demand level. I'm afraid my last trip was of a sightseeing relaxing nature away from the cities, so the only gold I can report back on was on the temple ceilings too.

Good points were raised about most items for sale in Japan, are mostly cheaper outside the country.

Perhaps when the yen makes big moves against the dollar (can't buy it down forever) we'll start to hear about gold over there. Is not inflation supposed to be good for gold? Or is that my over 40 backwardizational thinking? New paradigm for me is still four nickels.


PH in LAHa, Ha! Wishful thinking masquerading as news. Sounds like panic to me!#285204/12/2000; 13:01:12

Wednesday April 12 1:58 PM ET

Blue Chips Hold Gains; Techs Off Lows

By Kristin Roberts

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technology stocks bounced off their lows in early afternoon trading on Wednesday but still languished deeply in the red as investors shifted more money out of tech heavyweights and computer-chip shares.

U.S. blue chips rallied on the back of strong corporate earnings that boosted top bank and paper names.

``This is just the way the momentum is now. Everyday seems to be the same with weakness in the Nasdaq,'' said one Wall Street trader. ``I don't think there is general panic out there but people are raising their eyebrows, no doubt.''

By early afternoon, the Nasdaq composite index (^IXIC - news) was down 3.76 percent, or 152 points, at 3,903 after dropping more than 4 percent in earlier trading. The gauge fell to 3,850 twice on Wednesday but bounced back, leading some market watchers to think the mark may be a support level.

John DoeHumor : Onion Polls Cross Section Regarding Market's Turbulence#285214/12/2000; 13:06:27

"So people finally figured out that all that money in Internet stocks is largely imaginary, and that sent the market plummeting? Gee, better not tell them about banks."
Linda Irving, Research Assistant

FarfelDOW dropping like a rock now, NAZ still sinking#285224/12/2000; 13:37:19

XAU Rising, a reversal on increasing volume???

Even with a slight drop in the price of gold??

Tell me this is not a change in mass psychology.



JAPPT Holiday?#285234/12/2000; 14:05:24

Does this mean the PPT took a day off? Or did the market just get away from them a little today? Let's see if the come back in force tomorrow.
IronHeadHenri RE: your #28509 Today's Penultimate Question#285244/12/2000; 14:27:32

Sir Henri

How apropros; your question of the day- "Where is all the real money". Yea Verily!

Guess we should ask those folks getting the margin call tonight. (sorry, couldn't resist)

Salutations Matey!

R PowellPonzi#285254/12/2000; 14:32:31

Can't wait to see Shifty's Ponzi number for today. I'll bet it's an all time Ponzi low!
TownCrierBig numbers...lotsa paper#285264/12/2000; 14:33:02

HEADLINE: OPEC to bank extra $30 billion from oil price surge-IMF

The International Monetary Fund said that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Middle East oil exporters would earn an extra $30 billion (representing half of the worldwide exporters' total) this year based upon IMF projections of average world oil prices at $24.50 a barrel in 2000 versus $18.25 a barrel last year.

Though the U.S. government has revised their own projection downward last week to $23.50 per barrel, when the Energy Department last month projected an average price of $26.62 for the year, the payday for OPEC nations would have approached $211 billion, up from $133 billion last year.

YGMExit Doors Use, Now Visible To All......#285274/12/2000; 14:50:27

Now it's time for the sheep to move..

After months of money quietly moving out of markets, the rush is starting. Comments by pundits on CNBC talking 50%
cash in, my. How many will and how many will 'NOT' wait til the end days before the Clinton Economic Dream Team (PPT) and the misuse of the ESF come to an abrupt end??............................Now I must wonder aloud how long before the quiet accumulation of Physical Gold becomes as apparent as the flow of cash from stocks. The future of Gold seems nearer rather than farther to my eyes.
Dow...6000......Nasdaq...2000.....Gold.....$850.00.....This is my vision of the year ahead.........FWIW....YGM.

***Goodbye Clinton and Hello Reality.......

TownCrierBanking reserves...Sirs Econoclast and John Doe's discussion#285284/12/2000; 14:53:31

H.R. 4067, "The Business Checking Modernization Act"
"The Federal Reserve Act requires banks to hold 3% in reserves against the first $ 25 million the bank has in transactions accounts and between 8% and 14% against the amount above that threshold as determined by the Fed.. Today, the $25 million threshold level has been adjusted for inflation to $44.3 million and the ratio on the amount above that threshold level is 10%. The amendment eliminates the minimum statutory ratios of 3% and 8% for reserves LEAVING THE FEDERAL RESERVE WITH THE ABILITY TO NOT REQUIRE RESERVES [John Doe's emphasis]. The Federal Reserve Act specifically provides that reserves are to maintained solely for the purpose of implementing monetary policy."

You see, gentlemen, this really gets to the heart of our almost daily reports of the Fed's open market operations to add reserves to the banking system.

To put this legislation in better perspective, there is currently no reserve requirement whatsoever on savings deposits, whereas you can see from the above that the reserve requirement on transaction (checking) deposits is rather small. This could put them in the same boat, leaving to the discretion of the individual banks the amount of vault cash and similar reserves kept on hand.

Truely, even now, as Econoclast observes, there are only fiat reserves for the fractional reserve banking system...a house of cards upon a puff of air as a foundation.

This House bill was likely put forward with the support of the national banks who rail against the interest they must pay whenever they have to borrow funds to maintain their reserve requirements. And with depostors drawing down their accounts (which drains away the banks' on-hand reserves) faster than loans repayments replenish the reserves, they all turn to the Fed to borrow the needed reserves against various collateral.

Today, for example, the banking system turned to the Fed for a $5.25 billion addition to their reserves through an operation of overnight system repurchase agreements.

YGMFaber on Gold & Gates....Nov. /99#285294/12/2000; 15:09:06

Bill Gates Should Have Listened to Marc! :-))

November15, 1999

Should Bill Gates trade Microsoft for gold?

By Marc Faber

All gold mines in the world produce annually about 2,600 tons of gold with a total value of close to US $30 billion. Since Bill Gates owns about $100 billion worth of Microsoft shares, he could buy more than 3 years of annual gold production and still keep some change.

Should he consider a switch? Late last year I recommended purchasing some gold as the ultimate contrarian play (see FORBES GLOBAL, Nov. 16, 1998). For most of 1999, selling by central banks depressed gold's price. But recently gold has shot up by more than 20% from its low, to around $320 per ounce in one of financial history's most remarkable short squeezes, as European central banks decided to refrain from selling their gold.

Question: Is this the beginning of a new bull market for gold?

All the gold in the world that is above the ground--in the form of coins, jewelry and central banks' ingots--amounts to about 120,000 tons, valued at present at US $1.3 trillion. Compare this to the market values of the largest six U.S. technology companies--Microsoft, Intel, IBM, Cisco, Lucent and Dell--which total $1.6 trillion (up twelvefold from $133 billion in 1995). Meanwhile, the global bond market's market value is $30 trillion. These comparisons suggest there is relatively little gold around. Its annual supply, at $30 billion, is also tiny when compared to the annual supply of bonds in the world, at about $3 trillion.

Consider: If everyone in the world bought one gram of gold per year (current price: $11), annual demand would amount to 6,000 tons, or 2.5 times the annual supply. Impossible? But last year India, with a population of 1 billion and GDP per capita of just $300, bought over 800 tons of gold, almost 1 gram per person.

If investors' psychology changed and gold was once again regarded as a store of value, as in the 1970s, when its price shot up to $850, then demand would be twice as large as all the gold available outside the central banking system.


I would rather own, now, close to half the world's available gold than all the world's Internet companies.


"You got it all wrong, Marc," some will say. "How can you compare gold, which does not generate any income, to equities which have underlying eamings with a rising trend, or to bonds which generate income?" This argument is valid, but with two provisos.

If companies generate earnings in excess of the rate of inflation and are reasonably valued, then it is likely that they will provide over time a higher return than gold. However, if they have no earnings, are excessively valued or savaged by inflation, losses, expropriation or taxation, then gold may provide an attractive alternative. Thus, I would rather own, now, close to half the world's available gold than all the world's Internet companies, which are valued at about $500 billion and which continue to lose more and more money.

Similarly, bonds are only attractive as long as they provide a real rate of return, do not default, and--most important--are denominated in a sound currency. But are these conditions in place today? The $30 trillion global bond market is growing by about 10% per year; it doubles every 7 years or so in size and will reach, at this rate, $1,000 trillion in less than 40 years. Yet the global economy expands by just about 3% per year. This uncontrolled credit expansion will, in my opinion, lead either to far higher inflation rates or to massive defaults sometime in the future. In either case, gold will provide the only sound currency.

I may add that when a market gives a strong signal by breaking out on the upside after an extended bear market, it is usually not immediately obvious why such a move occurred. In the case of gold we shall only know much later why gold has begun to rise. Still, the coincidence of the upturn in gold with the downturn in U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar is worth thinking about.

What about gold's downside risks? After its recent surge from around $252 to over $320, gold may run into some profit taking. However, since the outstanding short position still exceeds over 4,000 tons and may be as high as 8,000, I very much doubt that we will again see gold fall below $280. The downside risk is, therefore, about 10%, compared to huge upside potential if the annual physical demand is supplemented by a change in investor psychology and by central banks' buying the metal to diversify their monetary reserves.

So go for it, Bill Gates. By trading your Microsoft stock for more than two years of annual gold supplies, you could bleed the shorts and drive gold to $1,000.

Marc Faber is managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report. e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

CoBra(too)US Markets tumble in view of EU's stumble over the Austrian Issue!#285304/12/2000; 15:22:19

A strange day - normality seemed to be the message on the markets. Dow profiting from the "shift" to quality, while NASDAQ extending its overdue correction. As real assets, gold and its mining shares stagnating - until even the "old economy" quality stocks got hit in the final trading hour. Abnormally, either the PPT has been employing all forces on straightening the ever inversing yield curve, keeping a lid on gold, the Yen and ohter fractures on the debt bubble dike, or else are starting to lose control? Whatever the outcome - in the end, lose they will, and Wall Street will crumble, when the tidal wave of debt, derivative and monetary excesses will flood lower Manhattan and the rest of the worlds financial underground!

Meanwhile, the Perth Gold Conference put a tawdry price tag of 40 bn. $ on the remaining producers of the metal, a sum equivalent to the first day gain of a DOT.COM IPO. I'm embarrassed, not so much being still a gold bug, but of the utter stupidity of the mainstream media, hustling their masters voice in view of the clearly visible end game of this debt bubble ponzi scheme.

I'm also embarrassed by the Austrian National Bank to join the $/IMF Anti Gold Puppeteers at this late stage of moral (holocaust? - see Swiss gold sales) blackmail.
And to add insult to injury the Austrian President's speech at the EU Parliamant was, utterly uncalled for, officialy commented by Nicole Fontaine in form of an infantile, (un)diplomatic affront. Just another brick hurled
at the builders of a combined economy, currency and political union, at a time when the 14 (plus one) set their goals at becoming 28!
This paria is buying more freedom -with more gold.
An utterly embarrassed CB2

megatronTHC/palladium#285314/12/2000; 15:44:14

If you look deep into Stillwater Mining's financials, you'll find a paragraph outlining contracts for delivery directly to GM,Mitsubishi, and others. At a fixed price too! They won't be squirming just yet.
Hill Billy MitchellOfficial release#285324/12/2000; 15:46:14

Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release

Release Date: April 12, 2000

Rates for Monday, April 11, 2000

Federal funds 5.97

Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.83
10-year 5.89
20-year 6.13
30-year 5.77

R PowellInverted still#2853304/12/00; 17:05:49

If, as someone suggested, the fed did shift their attention to shorter term maturities in order to help repair the inverted yield curve, they haven't succeeded yet. Mr. Hill Billy's temperature inversion numbers are still just that- inverted. It's my understanding that the longer this condition exists, the sicker is the patient and the harder it is to cure. Those who judge markets by charts and various indicators (like the yield curve) must be coming to the realization that there is a change in the wind. Perhaps soon we'll see just how this generation that has never experienced bad times reacts. Many still don't recognise what they are looking at because they've never seen one and for some, as my dad used to say, Hope dies hard.
$5 IndianReturn of the Reserve Raiders#2853404/12/00; 17:43:04

A day I shall never forget. Reports from the money crowd early indicated that borrowers would have to pay whatever the lenders saw fit to ask. There wouldn't be enough to go around. Thay day the money crowd was much larger than usual. When delivery time came that afternoon there must have been a hundred brokers around the Money Post, each hoping to borrow the money that his firm urgently needed. Without money they must sell what stocks they were carrying on margin---sell at any price they could get in the market where buyers were as scarce as money- and just then there was not a dollar in sight.

My friend's partner was as bearish as I was. The firm therefore did not have to borrow, but my friend, the broker I told you about, fresh from seeing the haggard faces around the Money Post, came to me. He knew I was heavily short of the entire market.

He said,"Larry! I don't know what's going to happen. I never saw anything like it. It can't go on. Soimething has got to give. It looks to me as if everybody is busted right now. You can't sell stocks, and there is absolutely no money in there."
"How do you mean?"I asked. But what he answered was, "Did you ever hear of the classroom experiment of the mouse in a glass-bell when they begin to pump the air out of the bell? You can see the poor mouse breathe faster and faster, it's sides heaving like overworked bellows, trying to get enough oxygen out of the decreasing supply in the bell. You watch it suffocate till its eyes almost pop out of their sockets, gasping, dying. Well, that is what I think of when I see the crowd at the Money Post! No money anywhere, and you can't liquidate stocks because there is nobody to buy them. The whole street is broke at this very moment, if you ask me!
It made me think. I had seen a smash coming, but not, I admit, the worst panic in our history. It might not be profitable to anybody-if it went much further.

Finally it became plain that there was no use in waiting at the Post for money. There wasn't going to be any. Then hell broke loose.

The president of the Stock Exchange, Mr. R.H Thomas, so I heard later in the day, knowing that every house in the Street was headed for disaster, went out in search of succour. He called on James Stillman, president of the National City Bank, the richest bank in the United States. Its boast was that it never loaned money at a higher rate than 6 percent.

Stillman heard what the president of the NYSE had to say. Then he said,"Mr. Thomas, we'll have to go and see Mr. Morgan about this."

The two men, hoping to stave off the most disasterous panic in our financial history, went together to the office of J.P. Morgan & Co. and saw Mr. Morgan. Mr. Thomas laid the case before him. The moment he got through speaking Mr. Morgan said, "Go back to the Exchange and tell them that there will be money for them."

"At the banks!"
So strong was the faith of all men in Mr. Morgan in those critical times that Thomas didn't wait for further details but rushed back to the floor of the Exchange to announce the reprieve to his death-sentenced fellow members.

In the daed silence that followed, Mr Atterbury said, "I am authorized to lend ten million dollars. Take it easy! There will be enough for everybody!" Then he began. Instead of giving to each borrower the name of the lender he simply jotted down the name of the borrower and the amount of the loan and told the borrower, "You will be told where your money is." He meant the name of the bank from which the borrower would get the money later. I heard a day or two later that Mr. Morgan simply sent word to the frightened bankers of New York that they must provide the money the Stock Exchange needed.

"But we haven't got any. We're loaned up to the hilt'" the banks protested. "You've got your reserves," snapped J.P.
"But we're already below the legal limit," they howled. "Use them! That's what reserves are for!" And the banks obeyed and invaded the reserves to the extent of about 20 million dollars. It saved the stock market. The bank panic didn't come until the following week. He was a man, J.P. Morgan was. They don't come much bigger. That was the day I remember most vividly of all the days of my life as a stock operator. It was a day when my winnings exceeded one million dollars. pages 113-115 "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre..........about the panic of October 24,1907

Deja's View on what is going on with bank reserve requirements this week.

"Well it just has to bounce off of 3600....."

Is fear a stronger emotion than greed? yes it is. Things go back up because the bull trend is intact. Is the bull trend still intact........P/E ratios around 250?......that is like asking if the parachutist is well qualified while his lines are twisted and he is falling out of the sky.

Look up the Djia 10 year chart. Draw a line from 1990 to the top of 1995. See how much extra ice cream you got for free? All that extra nobody paid for, it's all coming off if it's a true bear slide. Now let's look at the 10 yr gold chart, see the giant cavity? Somebody needs to put boss Keenes dirt back into boss Hogs hole, Luke? Well what we have here is a failya to communicate. When a man's rally dies, he gets panic in his blood and he wants to run. Keep shaking that tree Luke we know you're pissed off."

Nasdaq-uwa Takaideshoka? Hai takaides. So very high des. Like the woman lifting weights in the Schwab commercial says,"29, Now that was a market correction" Schwabby wants his people to ride it down like the cult leader with the financial koolaid. "Just lay down now and it will all be over soon. Let us sell your stock short while you die painlessly. Then after you wake up and loose your retirement, we will gladly return your stock after covering our positions at the bottom." "Ready to invest again, what you're broke, well never fear we loan out lots of margin here." Another great day if you are in gold......

$5 Indian

LeighSteveH#2853504/12/00; 17:58:38

"On February 24 [Senator Jack Reed] quietly introduced the so-called 'handgun Safety and Registration Act of 2000.' The bill is numbered S. 2099. It has been referred to the Senate committee on Finance. The bill would 'amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to require the registration of handguns and for other purposes.'

Among other things, S. 2099 would do the following:

- Impose a new federal 'transfer tax' on handgun sales;
- Impose new federal taxes on firearms manufacturers; and
- Require all now-unregistered handguns to be registered immediately.

The proposal is part and parcel of a UN plan to register every firearm possessed by every human being on the planet!"
Read and weep.

FarfelLeonard Kaplan (LFG Bullion) Talking Down Gold Again#2853604/12/00; 19:00:27

Today over at the "other forum," he is saying that based on today's action gold cannot possibly perform well during a market crash. Furthermore, he continues to shout that a market crash will not be good for gold (strange assertion given that an equities bull market has practically destroyed gold)

He warns about gold's prospects based upon today's action? He must have forgotten "Turnaround Tuesday" where gold popped up $10 within an hour during the height of the panic.

He also forgets that gold needs a series of simultaneous developments to move up strongly: a FALLING US Dollar (did not happen today) PLUS a FALLING DOW, a FALLING NASDAQ, and FALLING BONDS. Today one component to the equation was sorely missing. But when all components are diving, there we will be no other safety haven available except precious metals.

I don't blame the man for maintaining his spin. After all he's been one of the leading cheerleaders for momentum investing in the Nasdaq. He has urged gold investors for some time now to join in the mania of buying total absurdity, like internet companies with no business plans and no hopes for profits. Well, I can imagine how badly he must be bleeding now....

Of course, lest we think he is radically different than us, he does claim to be a "gold bull" forecasting (maybe) gold to 310 or 320 by Fall???

That's not bullish however, that's indifferent.

In a way I feel sorry for the man. It must be unpleasant to work in an environment in which one has so much "contempt" for the product (precious metals). He would be happier as an MM on the Nasdaq or something of that nature where he can work amongst fellow admirers of the current stock market bubble.



HI - HATCAPITOL CRIMINALS#2853704/12/00; 19:33:12

No man knows the full ramifications,that the unraveling of complicated financial mainsprings,will wreak upon us.
If in the worst case there is ultimetely a full systemic breakdown,we will have years and years of a siege mentality to look forward too.

That we are living under a Regime, and that includes all 3 branches of Federal Government, that is already close to giving up all pretense of operating within the established confines of the Constitution and Bill Of Rights, goes without saying.
In order for the TREASONS to be so widely embraced and accepted by the ruling political class we have only to know and accept that they are criminals engaged in an ongoing ORGANIZED CRIME.

What Liegh has brought to our attention concerning gun registration,within Internal Revenue Code, no less, will seem as benign as seat belt laws before this is over with.

$5 IndianThe insiders know so we should watch what they do.#2853804/12/00; 20:07:39

Maybe I went too far with what my message might imply. We can only surmise if this is the big 29-like break by looking around the edges at all the factors surrounding the markets. The stock market blow off is not what causes the collapse, it's the compounding elements that the sudden implosion of valuations creates. Loans for cars and homes based on equity holdings that fell by half. It precedes a liquidity crisis that requires instant cash injections into the economy.

If a government could solve all its problems by printing money then it would. The problem with the "just print it" solution is that alot has been already printed and the float will return real fast if they just print more. If the Emperors want to please the masses then they ruin the ultra-rich. If they serve the ultra-rich by refusing to print in the face of a liquidity crunch then they strangle the masses. Thus the rich find safety in strong dollars, interest rates remain moderate, businesses go broke as no one has money to spend due to debt service, and homes get sold at auctions and young couples move back in with mom and dad. Deflationary recession/depression. Gold would still go up because of the massive short position unwinding.

Look at the tide of American socialism and the "equalities of outcome" social engineering emphasis. Democrates in power think the middle class is fit to pillage. The Republicans never seem to obey their conscience when it comes to voting. The party is weak, very weak. They have alienated most of middle America with all their kissing up to the Pharisee sin pickers slinging mud at anyone who sinned one time. Zero compassion for the poor, no tort reform (justice), lip services, and same rejection of discipline as the Democrates. NO PLATFORM either. Why? Because they have money in their eyes instead of a vision of what this nation is supposed to be about. Corporations want Bush. But Land grab Al could be the next president and the capital flight and expatriot awareness I think will put gold on everyone's map.

Free love, drugs for all, and the Sodom circus....that is the part of this country that elected Mr.Bill, 40%. Step on my toe and I'll sue you. Litigation freaks.

Hard money fiscal goldbug conservatives represent no more than 25% of the population. So when it comes to bread and the circus, that means the hyperinflationary solution to please the masses. The rich can fly away and they do. They can leave the big island of Dr. Moro. Biotech........its for planting chips in people to track them. "We know where you are and we don't have all your money yet, Thankyou, be sure to log on tomarrow at the same time." They have chip transmitters in pets all over this country. They track polar bears from satellites. No, its Dr. Frankenstein (the clone nut) and Dr. Moro (the genetic mutation designer) and Assoctates. Symbol BINX,what's the product??? I'm gonna scare you onto that yacht you bought, MK can help you store your pocket change.

IronHeadLeigh RE: your 4-12 Ultimate Freedom#2853904/12/00; 20:29:24

With great pleasure I read your post of a Lady who is obviously aware of where all freedoms stem. Hopefully all gold-bugs share your concern.

If I could be so bold as to recommend a great read. "Armed and Female", by Paxton Quigley. Good for all mom's, daughter's, and the boy's in the family too.


pdeepCollpase of Complex Societies#2854004/12/00; 20:39:26

Following up on $5's previous post. Based on a recomendation by George Ure at the Urban Survival web site, I found a copy of Joseph A. Tainter's "The Collapse of Complex Societies"

What an excellent read. After examining a series of theories on why various civilizations collapsed, based on climactic changes, invasions by barabarians, etc. he comes up with a theory of complexity and the decline of marginal returns. He applies the analysis to the Roman Empire, the Mayas, and the inhabitants of Chaco canyon.

The marginal returns, in the case of the Roman Empire, which initially supported imperial expansion, were due to the increased tax revenue accruing from the conquered poeple. for a while, this was self-sustaining, as conquests paid for themselves and returned extra dividends, engendering more conquests. However, the marginal returns began to decrease as further conquests were not possible due to the pesky effects of distance from the central commmand. An organization that for a few hundred years developed to sustain the military power of the empire was suddenly placed in the position of having to defend these conquests, while the marginal returns of defense were much less (and in fact negative). At the same time, large-scale social welfare programs (at one point most of Rome's population was on the dole) designed to enhance the legitimacy of the emperor constituted a major drain on the treasury. What had been a plus game turned into a negative game, and the emperors began to play with the currency, with almost constant devaluations so that a silver denarius only contained 67% of the silver as the original, tries at "fiat" copper currencies, etc. Finally, the army began to shrink, as it was not being paid, local rebellions ensued as higher and higher levels of taxations made the populations embrace "barbarian" liberators, and the rest, is, as we say, history.

The parallels with our modern US of A are more than a few. Here, we have a government that, by ever-increasing levels of taxation redistributes the taxes, and more, via deficit spending, back to the populace as a way of maintaining legitimacy. Debt-ridden budgets continue to expand, while an aggressive "police-the-world" foreign policy further depletes the treasury. The marginal returns on investment in the post-World War II era have all been spent down, and there is no prospect of investment which will return that which is required to maintain a balance of payments. Meanwhile, the currency continues to be debased at a rapid rate, via the legerdemain of Congress and its Social security derived surpluses, cash basis accounting rather than accrual basis accounting.....

It's real hard to maintain a positive attitude for the long term. But trust me, it's a great read....

SHIFTYNY PONZI#2854104/12/00; 20:48:00

Nasdaq 3769.63 + DJIA 11125.13 = 14894.76 devide by 2 =

PONZI 7447.38 Down 224.11 ponzi points

I was going to stop posting the ponzi , but it seems to be working. LOL

LelandQuotation from Gollum#2854204/12/00; 21:07:40

"Ducks shouldn't fly so high,
that they run out of sky.
Slow and sure plods the cow
there before and still there now.
And lower down there is some gold,
or so I'm told."

jinx44Thanks for all the great posts of late#2854304/12/00; 21:40:37

I attach a page from a Book by Richard Maybery as it is in keeping with the current crop of posts. An aside; does anyone think that the slightly inverted yieldcurve is Greenspan's way of serving notice on the $30 Trillion in US financial derivatives? If he keeps it slightly negative he can put a sizable portion of the derivatives in the red. If he doesn't take it too far into inversion he could make it painful without making it deadly (maybe???) and force some unwinding. Just a thought.........

by Richard J. Maybury. Chapter 30, page 159:
"When living in a government-controlled economy as we do today, you will be better able to manage your career and investments if you understand the nature and behavior of government. Obvious, right? If you try to make decisions based on fictions you'll be running much risk.
So, what is the real nature and behavior of government? Where did government come from?
Any child knows the answers, right? It's easy. The institution of government was invented long, long ago to help us. People needed certain essential services, especially law enforcement, so they got together, chose someone to be their government, and voluntarily agreed to pay taxes for the services the government would provide.
"This is the official story we are all taught. It sounds good except for two small problems. First, no historian has ever been able to find an example of this happening. In A THEORY OF THE ORIGIN OF THE STATE, anthropologist Robert L. Carneiro writes, "We now know that no such compact was ever subscribed to by human groups."(41) Sociologist Franze
Oppenheimer, writing in THE STATE, is more blunt. He calls this explanation "a fairy tale,"(42) and is distressed that it is "prevalent in university teaching.""
Carneiro and Oppenheimer explain, in a much more scholarly fashion than does Maybury the real reason government was invented. He briefly explains how the robbers and brigands stopped raiding the towns and communities and moved in and took permanent control. They set up this scheme called "government" and "taxes" and all the rest. He continues:
"Carneiro says this was the essential process for the invention of governments in "Mesopotamia, Egypt, India, China, Japan, Greece, Rome, northern Africa, Polynesia, Middle America, Peru, and Columbia, to name only the most prominent examples."(44) Oppenheimer adds Britain, France, Arabia, Italy, Germany, Spain, Mexico, and many others.(45) All governments today have evolved from these origins.
In other words, governments do not collect taxes to provide services, they provide services as an excuse to collect taxes. A tax is a substitute for a raid.
Thomas Paine asked, "From such beginnings of governments, what could be expected, but a continual system of war and extortion?"
Carneiro observes: "A close examination of history indicates that only a coercive theory can account for the rise of the state."(47)
The Romans had owned plantations called latifundia. A gang of barbarians would overrun a latifundium, force the workers into a kind of slavery called serfdom, and make these serfs build them a fort called a castle. The gang would set up housekeeping in the castle and live off the taxes they collected from the serfs.
This is royalty. We are led to believe kings and queens are like movie stars, glamorous and wealthy. Children are told stories in which the young heroine dreams of becoming a princess and marrying a handsome young prince.
Marrying a handsome young prince meant marrying a handsome young gangster, and, in some cases, a handsome young mass murderer. ... My experience has been that deep in their hearts most people sense there is something inherently wrong with government. Is there any country where the word politics is not pronounced with a sneer?" ... The world's early governments evolved into those we have today, and all have retained their essential natures. To get what they want they use force. The force is usually hidden but it's there and you will feel it if you resist.
I believe a major reason America and the world have gotten into so much trouble during the 20th century is that we have forgotten that, fundamentally, governments are predators. Attempts to make them do good are attempts to make the leopard change his spots. Maybe it can be done, but 6000 years of history are not encouraging.

41. A Theory of the Origin of the State by Robert L. Carneiro, Institute for Humane Studies, George Mason University, VA, P. 4.
42. The State by Franz Oppenheimer, Viking Press, Free Life Editions, New York, 1944, p. 5. 43. Ibid. p. 4. 44. Ibid. p. 6. 45. Ibid. p. 8. 46. Ibid. p. 6. 47. Ibid. p. 8.

Sharefin$5 Indian - the silver & gold pledges#2854404/12/00; 22:29:27

Please excuse me from not replying earlier.
I don't frequent this forum regularly and I caught your post reading back.

I started the gold pledge due to interest from the silver pledge.
With the pledge you can only enter your pledge once.
A cookie stops you from multiple entries.

So with the encouragement of others I started the gold pledge so that people could also enter their pledge there.
I've added a comment into the gold pledge where it states that for initial pledgers their greatest effects will be with the silver pledge.

I don't see any damage with this if they follow along.

I've been cajoling the posters on Kitco to do their bit and forward the url to other websites so that they can support the pledge.

Here's a copy of a comment I made on Kitco:
I'm hoping that if enough people join in and the numbers get real enough that it will catch on like an email letter.
I'm not keen to spam it out into cyberspace, but feel that if enough individuals get involved then it will get there of it's own accord.

By getting it out of these few gold forums and onto the net it has the potential to garner enough interest that the tally of pledgers will start to create waves.

So far the polls up to approx 180 pledgers for a total of 74,000 ounces ( 0.36 million$ ) and it's not yet a week old.

This is yet not noteworthy but a good start.

I'm sure if we hit a million ounces then the media would pick up on it and then it would spread across the net like wildfire.

I'm hoping it'll get big enough that Drudge would run with it.
That'll set the sparks flying.

If it doesn't get promoted out into cyber space then it's doomed to die.
Just a bunch of goldbugs who a back-patting themselves about all the PM's they own.

It need the power of the people behind it.

The link needs to be sent to PM coin & bullion dealers, right & left political sites - patriot sites etc.

If we goldbugs don't get up and support ourselves then it's doomed for failure.


MariusJinx44#2854504/12/00; 22:31:02

Thanx, Jinx, for the Mayberry piece. For all who found this piece intriguing, I recommend Lysander Spooner's NO TREASON: THE CONSTITUTION OF NO AUTHORITY. Written in 1870 by a Massachusetts lawyer, it is a very in-your-face repudiation of the so-called "social contract". It's a thoughtful and, some would say, subversive work. I believe I got my copy from Laissez-Faire Books in San Francisco many years ago.

Here's a taste. Don't get caught with this on your hard drives. I expect the NSA will flag this and be at my door shortly.

"Who, then, created these debts, in the name of "the United States"? Why, at most, only a few persons, calling themselves 'members of Congress,' etc., who pretended to represent 'the people of the United States,' but who represented only a secret band of robbers and murderers, who wanted money to carry on the robberies and murders in which they were engaged; and who intended to extort from the future people of the United States, by robbery and threats of murder (and real murder, if that should prove necessary), the means to pay these debts."

I would add that the above outrage was vented over the approximately $2.453 billion dollar debt of the day. Ah, the good old days.

Good night all, & I hope it's not goodbye!


THCFarfel --- Didn't you hear???#2854604/13/00; 00:04:25

LFG is NO MORE........

LFG,LLC has recently been sold to Refco.......

Don't know what it means........but it's gone.........


Black BladeMegatron/THC and Palladium#2854704/13/00; 00:40:47

Concerning yesterday's little blurb on SWC hedges.

Stillwater Mining has contracted sales of Pd and Pt to "certain clients" at a minimum set price with no limit to the upside. They receive a minimum price for their PGMs, but if the spot price is greater than the hedged price, then they receive the greater price. This resulted from some bad experiences with hedges in 1995 through 1997. The financial officer was eventually "allowed" to "persue other interests", and the hedges were restructured. The current hedge program provides downside protection while allowing for full upside exposure. This can be found in the Stillwater Mining Company report Also, the East Boulder expansion project is back on schedule. This will effectively triple reserves, and the refurbishing and expansion of the mill complex will greatly contribute to throughput of ore. Of course, the gold companies haven't been able to make such advantageous hedging deals. In fact some are absolutely stupid as seen with Ashanti, Cambior, and Emperor Mines.

Black Bladere: @Farfel#2854804/13/00; 01:01:18

Kaplan does not seem to remember history very well. During the last CRASH of the markets, though physical gold ownership was illegal, Homestake Mining served as a fair proxy. While most equitites were vaporized, and many lost 90% or more in dollar value, HM rose well over 260%. I don't know much of this individual, but there is great danger when major institutions and individuals hire former "Slurpee salesmen" from 7-11 for financial analyses :-)
THCIronHead - Konnichiwa!#2854904/13/00; 01:18:15

"I seem to recall a figure from TC (?), that Japan's gold intake 4th qtr. last year increased 25% year on year. Do you, (if still in Japan), have a feel for how folks over there are reacting to their no interest inflationary environment? Gold aquisitions increasing by the average person?"

There may be ups and downs in Japan's gold demand, but unfortunately the average person in Japan is about as clueless as the average American when it comes to gold.....I would not hold my breath expecting them to buy significant amounts......until WAY AFTER the gold bull begins....just like in the US.

I hold more hope for the Chinese, who LOVE gold and silver, but know that prices in China are artificially high, and will not buy in volume now.......maybe after it is available at free market prices there.........

Sorry not to have good news.....

For now, I am enjoying the gasoline backwardation on the futures and wait 6 months......up money.........


AristotleFarfel, that comment is a classic!#2855004/13/00; 02:05:37

No matter which individual you may choose to attach the comment to--if the shoe fits. It's a classic!
"Of course, lest we think he is radically different than us, he does claim to be a "gold bull" forecasting (maybe) gold to 310 or 320 by Fall???

That's not bullish however, that's indifferent."
It gave me a good smile as I sit here filling out tax forms--a task that's as unsavory as taking a paring knife to a Gold bar under the notion that elected officials in Washington can put my property to use more productively than I can. Sheeeeeeeesh! Gimme a break.

Yellow Property. Get you some. ---Aristotle

LelandJust Something to Read With Your Morning Coffee....#2855104/13/00; 03:36:10

E-mail evokes distant era
'Wooooohohooooo. This is FREE money!'

William Hanley
Financial Post; W

With the Nasdaq composite index closing yesterday almost exactly
where it started the new millennium after losing the 24% gain, it's
time for some strong coffee this morning to accompany toast buttered
only on one side and a few moments of reflection on the vagaries of
the market.

But first, let's warm up by harking back two or three weeks through
the mists of time to an era of full flowering in exuberance. John
Bollinger, the high-profile technical analyst who runs Bollinger Capital
Management Inc. in Manhattan Beach, Calif., recently received an
e-mail from one overexcited individual that pretty well speaks for the
kind of stuff that commentators, including Market Eye, often are sent
by pumped-up readers:

"What on earth are you talking about?

"Are you missing this party ?!?!!

"Forget history!!

"FEH! It's DIFFERENT this time!!

"I'm fully margined to the HILT. I've gone from 30k to over a million
in 18 months!!!

"I'm letting it RIDE baby!! How do you think I got here?!!?! Not by
holding bonds, THAT'S FOR SURE.


"This is FREE money!

"I wish I found the markets years ago.

"I quit my day job months ago!!

"I'll never work again as long as the markets keep FLYINGG!!!

"I'm gonna have five kids now that I've got an infinite source of free

"Gotta go!

"Time to buy my second Porsche!

"Yip yip yeeeeeeeee haaaa!!!"

This is a splendid rendition of the call of the species homo daytradius.
And we just hope that a somewhat different cry will not be emanating
from a rustic trailer park habitat some time soon.

No, this is not a gloat. Market Eye knows better.

It is an acknowledgement that an era --or sub-era -- is over in the
stock market. The greatest bull market in history -- as measured by
the major indexes -- remains intact, despite stumbling this year. But
the speculative excesses surrounding technology generally and the
Internet specifically are being wrung out of the market in a process
that is putting many investors through the wringer.

It's easy to say that no one can possibly be surprised by the savage
bear market forming quickly in the techs or the swift lateral
arabesque into the cyclicals. But many traders, having bought the first
three Nasdaq/TSE technology stock dips and been further
emboldened by last Tuesday's great escape, have been caught offside
by the move, no matter how well telegraphed it seemed.

Those who caught a ride on the Nasdaq express when it was pulling
out of the station 18 months ago and who began disembarking in the
past few months will be feeling elated. Those who clambered aboard
in the past few months and were not disposed to take quick profits or
cut their losses after buying near the top will be feeling deflated, the
greater fools at the end of the line.

At breakfast tables everywhere this morning, people burned by a
combination of tech stocks too hot to handle and by their own
miscalculation are agonizing over whether they should take losses and
put this episode behind them as a lesson learned and a capital loss
earned or stay the course and hope for an eventual turnaround. It's a
tough decision. Waffles anyone?


Gold dot-com: Can the price of gold, the world's oldest investment,
get a desperately needed boost from the world's newest technology?

Word comes from AngloGold Ltd., the world's biggest gold producer,
investment bank J.P. Morgan & Co. and a Swiss refiner via
Bloomberg News that they are forming a joint venture to market gold
over the Internet to reach new customers and boost sales.

Customers who visit the Web site,, can buy
everything from earrings to bullion.

AngloGold will no longer just produce gold bars, whose prices
reached a 20-year low in August. Instead, the company now has
direct access to financial markets worth $1-trillion (US) worldwide
and the $14-billion gold jewellery market in the United States.

The venture may also boost demand for gold. One analyst declared:
"The bottom line is you want someone to buy the gold."

Long-suffering gold bugs would agree that anything, anywhere, even
cyberspace, might help their cause.

[From today's NATIONAL POST, Fair Use for Educational/Research Purposes Only]

Black BladeMorning wakeup call. #2855204/13/00; 05:00:27

Source: Bridge news

Swiss Radio: SNB repeats gold sales likely to begin early May

Zurich--Apr 12--The sale of around 1,300 tonnes of Swiss National Bank gold reserves will probably begin in early May, the SNB press spokesman Werner Abegg reiterated on Swiss national radio (DRS). The deadline for any registered public opposition to the sale expires Apr 20, and the federal authorities say no public petition is currently being circulated. (Story .12251)

Black Blade: Could change their minds by then.

Australia J B Were says gold shares give risk reward, diversity

Perth, Western Australia--Apr 13--Gold producer shares still offer rewards and portfolio diversification in a modern investment climate, Ian Preston, research analyst at Australian brokerage J B Were and Son, told delegates at the Australian Gold Conference here. However, he warned gold mining managers that that the smaller the size of gross market capitalization in any sector, the greater the probability a fund manager can afford to ignore any exposure to that sector altogether. (Story .10524)

Black Blade: Like a needle in a haystack?

UK-listed miner Ashanti ready for challenges in year ahead: CEO

Johannesburg--Apr 12--London-listed gold producer Ashanti Goldfields has put a brave face on a tough past financial year, saying it had recorded a strong operational performance and would face the year ahead with determination. (Story .19136)

Black Blade: And a stellar performance it was too! (Guess I really didn't need to comment on this one)

LBMA March daily gold turnover at near record low, silver also low

London--Apr 12--The London Bullion Market Association said average daily cleared turnover for gold in March fell 19% to 24.2 million ounces--the second lowest level on record. The average price of US $286.39 per ounce was $13 lower than the previous month, bringing daily average value down by 23% to $6.9 billion. The number of transfers fell from 907 to 800, although they were up slightly on January's lowest ever 774. (Story .14194)

Black Blade: Whassamatta? Those margin calls slow ya down?

Black BladeGold seen rising?#2855304/13/00; 05:10:23

Follow the link. Positive PM news?
tedwNorth American Palladium#2855404/13/00; 06:03:03

Black Blade:

You seem to be the most knowledgeable person here about precious metal mining stocks.

What do you think about North American Palladium? Do you have any information about their Hedging position? Would
you prefer Stillwater or North American?

Black Bladetedw and PGMs#2855504/13/00; 06:30:28§or=mining

Sorry, but I'm not very familiar with the company. I know that they have some properties near the Sudbury district in Ontario. The link may help a bit. I bought into SWC a couple of years back. I visited the mine and the property in 1991. Another interesting company, and more speculative is Idaho Consolidated Metals (V.IDO). They are exploring for PGMs subparallel to SWC in Nye, Montana. The recent problems with physical delivery of some PGM's may create some interesting situations. The Autocatalyst producers may switch back to combos of Pt and Rh. Physical Pt could be a decent buy now. Who knows.
USAGOLDToday's Report: Swiss Sale Factored-In?#2855604/13/00; 08:32:39

4/12/00 Indications
Gold June Comex
Silver May Comex
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
Dollar Index June NYBOT

Market Report (4/13/00): Gold was steady still shrugging off a report that the Swiss
gold sales could begin in May. We think the May target date as unlikely since the Swiss have
yet to solidify the manner in which the gold will be sold. As it is, the Swiss sales are
within the confines of last September's Washington Agreement among central bankers to limit
gold sales and leases, and may have already been discounted in the market. Viewed from afar
though, the market's non-reaction seems to be out of character. Given the reactions to such
announcements in the past, we would have expected a plunge. The fact that we haven't seen
that plunge makes us wonder if this gold will ever reach the public marketplace.

The Swiss have said repeatedly that the sales will handled in a way which would not disturb
the market, and we suspect they meant what they said. The combination of those two factors
has acted thus far to keep the price from dropping like it did after the Bank of England
announcement last year. The Bank of England sales have been criticized by the World Gold
Council and other analysts as a deliberate attempt to drive down the price with the
subsequent effect of wreaking havoc in the gold mining industry. The Swiss, it seems, do not
want to be similarly pigeon-holed, thus the care in the way the sales will be handled.

The Asian market was similarly calm overnight as we gear down toward COMEX options expiration
on Friday. On the positive side of the gold news, Reuters reports that gold is being
supported by investors worldwide concerned about the drop in U.S. equities markets. Another
interesting report from Reuters this morning tells us that OPEC will bank an extra $30
billion from the recent oil price surge. With the well-known Middle Eastern attachment to
gold at a time when most of the industrialized nations are printing currency like there's no
tomorrow ( Ed. Note: The British government was warned by the IMF yesterday that its budget
may "pump too much money into the economy" forcing the BOE to raise interest rates -- causing
the British government to go into a snit.), the current support for gold might be traced
directly to the Gulf States now awash in that depreciating currency. So just where is the
Swiss gold headed -- EU? the Gulf? The bullion banks?. Seems like there's plenty of takers
and maybe that's why the market thus far has greeted the announcement with a very evident,
pronounced and revealing yawn.

We'll leave yesterday's Opinion piece up for a few days for all our new visitors -- a bit of
gold philosophy to get your through the upcoming weekend.

JonMsg. to tedw and Black Blade re: palladium#2855704/13/00; 08:58:09

Recent pree release of this exploratory company reported finding possible deposits in Saskatchewan. Major producers are reportedly registering interest. What do you think?
GalearisGold leasing and roll-overs#2855804/13/00; 09:16:45

Just a general observation from one who watches lease rates: given the lease overhang in gold and silver, I would expect there to now to be more evidence of lease roll-overs than what is displayed on a daily basis. I do not see this.

This would tend to support the notion that there would have to be defaults going on. Quietly(?!)

Ted Butler subscribes to the notion that lease rates are rigged. I am beginning to lean that way myself.

Harmon and Hardy: how much is the loss of this company going to hurt the demand side? They are major fabricators of pms as well. (Also, what really happened here?)

Just some over-coffee muses....

Rhody@Black Blade and your Morning Wake Up Call#2855904/13/00; 09:26:42

Your figures re the drop in LBMA daily number of ounces
traded at 19% drop in March from February is quite significant. At the present rate of decline, the LBMA
will reach zero volume in March 2001. Although markets
never continuously decline, so extrapolations such as this
are dangerous, it is my opinion that when the LBMA dies,
so will the control of gold. This is also nicely after
ECB issues actual coins and paper currency, so that the
EURO will be a fully functioning currency, and finally
able to challenge the US dollar.
The above analysis assumes the LBMA data is real, which
would be a first for any public data issued re precious
metal markets. There are many who just don't believe these
figures. Indeed, if volume figures from the LBMA are real,
how does COMEX 'make' the market with only one tenth the
volume on ounces traded?
Indirect evidence that 2001 is the year to watch for
the true valuation of gold rests with the continued support
by European Central Banks for the US dollar, and continued
sales by the Dutch, British, Austrian, and Swiss central
banks. These sales could be designed to keep the dollar
price for gold under control until the EURO is ready, or
to put it another way, the dollar will be supported until
it is allowed to fall into the lap of the EURO.

lamprey_65Why I think the Swiss sale is GOOD NEWS at this point#2856004/13/00; 10:53:57

Look at it this way - the Washington Agreement caps the amount of gold eligible to be sold to 400(?) tons per year for 5 years. Now, I think we are all astute enough to understand what would happen if the Swiss decided not to sell at this point...yes, we'd get rumor after rumor until someone actually stepped up to sell within the 400 tons per year limit --- NOT GOOD. With the Swiss selling, at least we don't have to worry about this scenario, and we also are fairly confident that the Swiss will use the BIS for the transactions...much better than the Brit auction method. If the Swiss didn't sell, there's no telling what we'd for a sales method by another country.
EconoclastI've had a thought which leads to a question...#2856104/13/00; 11:46:58

If anybody had any opinions on this , please share.

As far as I've reasoned it out so far, if a share of stock that was worth $100 yesterday is only worth $50 today. Was that $50 of lost value simply extinguished from the money supply?

If it was, could the now ending bull market in stocks have been the ultimate sucker play in order to lessen the inflationary pressures caused by too many dollars being sent overseas via the trade deficit i.e.
get the foreign dollar holders to send them back and put them into the stock market where they are simply made to disappear.

Any thoughts or comments anyone...

Peter AsherEconoclast (04/13/00; 11:46:58MDT - Msg ID:28561)#2856204/13/00; 12:59:10

Re your >>>I've had a thought which leads to a question...
If anybody had any opinions on this , please share. --- As far as I've reasoned it out so far, if a share of stock that was worth $100 yesterday is only worth
$50 today. Was that $50 of lost value simply extinguished from the money supply?<<<<

None of the money supply is "in" the market to be extinguished. --- I went back and edited Y2K out of a previously posted tome, itself a composite of earlier posts. Hopefully, this will clarify rather then confuse this controversial issue.

All money must firstly lie in either a bank ledger, wallet, strong box or under a mattress. All of us here have agreed with the empirical fact that money does not 'lie' in the stock market, even the money spent on an IPO becomes someone else's working capital, residing in their bank account.

So there is a lot of money out there, always being 'someone's' spending power unless it cycles back to the bank, reversing the fractionalization creation, or to the Fed as a repayment from the bank that originally borrowed it. Therefore the question is, who has that spending power and what might they intend to do with it.?

A record breaking amount of discretionary income has detoured through the equity markets. Specifically the earners of that income have, instead of spending it on consumption, on the capitalizing of production, or 'saving it'; decided to reimburse an owner of shares in a company and then the seller of those shares makes the decision to consume, capitalize or spend. Ergo, money "Flows thorough" the stock market rather then being "In" it.

Let us assume for now, the continuation of the present level of sales and employment and therefore the same level of discretionary income. If stock market sentiment were to decline, then the spending decisions will swing back to the income earners. In that environment, will there be more homes and new cars bought, more businesses started or expanded, or more money 'saved'? (The later, of course, is allowing the Banks to expand the amount of that money and then loan it out for one or the other of the former.)

An expanded money supply, demanding more goods and services from a specific quantity of production facility, would be inflationary. On the other hand, if a lot of spending power were used to hire the creation of more production facilities, it would not. Finally, if their was an excess of production facilities created, there would be deflation. Recession or depression only occurs if the cycle of produce and consume breaks down, from whatever cause.

Envision the Free market economy depicted as justice is, by a sculpture of a blindfolded lady holding a scale. One side weighs production, the other consumption. It all comes down to a question of balance.

In a falling market, the *outstanding money supply is changing hands, not changing in size*. If the stock market declines, gradually or otherwise, those who get less for their stock than they paid for it, have allowed some of their earnings to permanently stay in the hands of others.

What will be increasing when less money "cycles through the market" is the amount of spending decided by the original receivers of income , rather then when that spending decision was made by stock sellers. I believe last year I posted a concept of stock certificates being the fifth currency, after the dollar, yen, mark, and SF. Other than the right to take part in company affairs, the only difference is the form in which that (stock) currency is exchanged. That is why the wealth effect exists. People perceive their stock as a saved currency that will increase in value against the dollar.

It is not the inflated values considered to be the "Bubble" that I see as the danger. It is the magnitude of the overall investment capital that is passing through the equity conversion machine and exiting as spending money.

The challenge to AG & Co. is to keep that flow-through steady without expanding the bubble or scaring investors out of it either. It would appear that Investors fear of loss is becoming strongly counter-balanced by the fear of missing out on exorbitant capital gains. AG could be shrewdly playing this "like a violin" as they say.

One day some optimistic comment or an as expected rate announcement. A few days later, a little bit of a discouraging word. The market rallies, the market corrects. Investors are no longer 'making' their twenty percent. At some point they may be just breaking even. But they'll never know if next week everything will go roaring upward again. Damned if they sell and damned if they don't.

I've stated that money is a form of bookkeeping, and that a dollar is a "production chit." So, let's say a dollar is a note that says, "Pay to the bearer on demand one dollar worth of goods or services from the people of the USA. My point is that the government is not the writer of that note. The USG is the Title Company guaranteeing that note. The govt. doesn't really owe it; that note is based on the American People's ability and willingness to honor it.

As long as the citizens of this country are getting up and going to work and keeping the economic machine going, they are the primary underpinning of the US dollar. The secondary factor is how the trade value of the dollar floats in the currencies game. This massive debt that occurs from printed money represents goods and services consumed in return for goods and services not yet created. So, maybe there is a check and balance here. If global money games devalue the dollar, then the demand for American goods and services would rise, the trade balance improve, and the debt level decrease. The threat to the global economy comes from excesses. If default or devaluation of sufficient magnitude occurs and the domino effect gets triggered.

The gist of all this is that fiat money depends on maintaining the agreements behind it. (Dun and Bradstreet's motto is "Credit: Man's Confidence in Man") If the agreement can not be held in place, then a medium of exchange is necessary to hold onto value earned, and this is where GOLD has always functioned.. The big question is to what degree does one need to devote production into hoarded gold, in order to secure earnings. (That is what the central banks are wrestling with at this time. Do they back their currencies, or purchase more national necessities such as weapons, welfare or favors)

The money supply expands or contracts depending on the loaning or returning of funds, (credits) out of or into the banking system. The effect of a market crash would certainly be first and foremost a decline in spending. The "Wealth Factor", which is nothing more than an expectation of future stock sales being paid for by money being 'saved' out of future earnings, would be devastated. If stock market sentiment were to decline, then the spending decisions would swing back to the income earners. In that environment, would there be more homes and new cars bought, more businesses started or expanded, or more money saved? (The latter allocation, of course, would result in the banks expanding the money supply and then issuing loans for consumption or capitalization.) However, if there wasn't a demand for new loans due to a crash in consumer confidence, then that money would exit the Money Supply.

Years ago, people used to say" I have some stock in AT&T" or whatever company. Not "My money is in AT&T." That's all people have, a share in a company. The only money that is actually IN the market, is whatever bid is on the floor of the exchange at that particular moment. If at noon tomorrow there are bids for 2000 shares of AMZN @ $50 per share, and nothing else, then in that moment in time, the total wealth factor of the company could be seen as $100,000. First guy to sell his 2000 shares is the one who "Gets (some of) his money out of the market."

If that flow through of savings into stock sales diminished, spending would then depend on what money people were earning, and whether they saved it or purchased consumer goods. If they saved it in banks it would contract the money supply, If they kept it circulating, purchasing things, then the 'price' inflation/ deflation would depend on the willing buyer/willing seller dynamic that is the heart and soul of economics. My definition of the cause of inflation is "The power to command price." Even if wages are not earned due to a shortage of supplies to run the production, prices can still stay up there if there is 'saved' money in circulation to acquire the remaining available goods. For deflation to occur, there would have to be enough goods eagerly seeking a small pool of buyers who still were willing to spend. If everyone who still had unspent credit was scared into gold, it could go to the moon while everything else was in the tank.

I would define a depression as a situation where people cannot find the opportunity to produce and exchange with each other. The government can always print our way out of a depression. But then those who still have purchasing power will not have the opportunity to buy up the world for a pittance, so, the question then becomes "Who will the government be working for"

There is one cardinal difference between Gold (and silver) and bank note currency. All bank notes are credits, they will purchase things from others, but only so long as their debt is honored by the society that uses them for rights of exchange. A banknote basically a WeOU,. "We the people of this country owe you this numerical value of goods or services." (dependent on where inflation or deflation has taken that value when you call in the entitlement.) So in a sense, when you take currency out of the bank you are saying, "Hey tear me out that piece of the page where you have my deposit written down. I'd rather hold on to it myself." Therefore, an FRN is the last refuge of credit money. No matter what fails in the world of electronic or paper ledgers, holding your own "Ledger to go" as Aragorn then described this, is a safe solution.

What cash has in common with gold is possession at the expense of lost interest. The big difference is that only gold protects against lost value. Gold or silver or precious stones are in effect, credits exercised and transformed into the ownership of portable value. That value may fluctuate as does a currency, but it can not be defaulted. In post #2400 of 2/14-PM, I defined Gold as 'asset' money and currency as 'credit' money, I keep coming back to that as the basic criteria for analyzing the relationship between gold and paper.


Hill Billy MitchellThe long and the short of it#2856304/13/00; 13:23:39